workshop trade-off analysis - cgiar_19 feb 2013_keynote jetse stoorvogel
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Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen
Trade-offs at landscape/watershed levelThe assessment
Jetse Stoorvogel
Soil Geography and Landscape Group
Wageningen University
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen
Trade-offs at landscape/watershed levelThe assessment
From indicators to trade-offs/synergies
The unique element of the landscape/watershed level
Analysing the tradeoffs
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen
The indicators
The objective
Rural development
Environmental sustainability
Payments for Ecosystem services
...
The indicators
Economic indicators
Environmental indicators
Social Indicators
...
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen
Single factor solutions
More people, Less erosionTiffen et al., 1994
The case of soil erosion in Machakos, Kenya
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen
Analysis in a single dimension
The indicators
Economic indicators
Environmental indicators
Social Indicators
...
$ Cost/benefit
analysis
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen
Trade-off analysis
Environmentalquality
Agricultural productivity
Trade-off
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen
Trade-off analysis
Environmentalquality
Agricultural productivity
Synergy
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen
Scale levels – starting point
Regression models at two scale levels for arable crops in Ecuador
De Koning et al., 1998
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen
Characteristics of different scale levels
Farm
Landscape/Watershed
Region/Continent
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen
How do we deal with the population of farmers? – representative farms
FarmType
I
FarmType
II
FarmType
III
FarmType
IV
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen
How do we deal with the population of farmers? – sample of farms
Sample of farms
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen
How do we deal with the population of farmers? – population of farms
Statistical description
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen
How do we deal with the population of farmers? – population of farms
StrataIV
StrataIII
StrataII
StrataI
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen
How do we deal with the population of farmers? – All farms
All farms
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen
Simulating representative farms
How representative are representative farms?
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen
Example: variation in a case Western Kenya
Variable Explained variance# of adults 26.6 %Dist. to market 0.7%Farm size 5.3%Education 64.6%Total TLU 1.4%Fertilizer 0.8%
Salasya and Stoorvogel, 2010
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen
Simulating representative farms
How representative are representative farms?
Generalization of the farm scale models
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen
Simulating a sample of farms
Inherent productivity(crop growth simulation models)
Land management: crop selection and management(econometric simulation model)
Environmental impact(Erosion, pesticide leaching, fertility loss….)
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen
Pathways of poverty
Mai
ze p
rice
Low
High
Poverty
Manure availability
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen
Simulating a population of farms
What is the question?
●Comparison of two systems (Adoption, PES, CC)
Parsimonious approach
●E.g., Adoption is an economic choice
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen
Opportunity cost
PES
Simulating a population of farms
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen
()
PES
100Case 1
Case 2
Case3
Rate
PES0
Derivation of adoption rate from spatial distribution of
opportunity cost
Simulating a population of farms
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen
Climate change impacts for Vihaga (Kenya)
Claessens et al., 2012
% of farm population
Sea
sona
l los
s
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen
Simulating all farms
The case of spatial interactions
Claessens et al., 2010
Analysis of Trade-offs in Agricultural Systems
February 19-21, Wageningen
Tradeoffs for the landscape/watershed
Idiosyncrasy
Standardization (harmonization)
parsimonious approaches
Ex-ante analysis