world 29/world 08. world industrial production fed forecast of the unemployment rate
TRANSCRIPT
World 29/World 08
World Industrial Production
Fed forecast of the unemployment rate
Civilian Employment-Population Ratio
Some perspective
• EPI: U.S. needs to add 127,000 jobs a month to keep up with population growth
• Pre-crisis unemployment within two years add 580,000 jobs per month
• Five years300,000 per month
Annual averages of monthly job gains going back to Clinton
Divergence
Structural Shift? (Or: who’s unemployed? Everyone.)
Weak Recovery
Okun’s Law
Okun’s Law• The horizontal axis shows annual growth rates of real GDP;
the vertical axis shows the year-to-year change in the unemployment rate.
• First, the economy has to grow around 2 1/2 percent per year just to keep unemployment from rising.
• Second, growth above that level leads to a less than one-for-one fall in unemployment (because hours per worker rise, more people enter the work force, etc.).
• Roughly, it takes two point-years of extra growth to reduce the unemployment rate by one point.
• Suppose that from here on out the U.S. averages 4.5 percent growth. Unemployment would be close to 8 percent at the end of 20126 percent by 2014.
Recession Comparison
European Unemployment
European Unemployment
LTU
The Baltic Disaster/Miracle
Business investment, U.S.
Global Unemployment (01/11)