World at Risk Notes

Global Hazards

What are the main types of physical risks facing the world and how big a threat are they?

Nature of Hazard: A natural event will only become a hazard if it threatens humans. Classified into: Natural processesNatural HazardNa-techTechno HazardsSuper HazardsGlobal environmental changeChronic HazardsDisastersContext HazardEnvironmental Hazard

Geophysical Hydro-meteorological Natural-technology disasters Technological accidents Context hazards operate at a global or continental scale Chronic hazards may increase the threat from environmental hazards. Key factors which make them a threat: Warning time normally short and onset rapid Humans are exposed as they live in hazardous areas Direct losses to life or property occur within days of event Often justifies emergency response, and sometime humanitarian aid Some socioeconomic characteristics increase peoples vulnerability and amplify the risks from hazardsKey Terms:Context Hazard: Widespread threat due to environmental factors such as climate changeGeophysical Hazard: A hazard formed by tectonic/geological processes (earthquakes, volcanoes and tsunamis)Hazard: A perceived natural event, which has the potential to threaten both life and propertyHydro-meteorological Hazard: A hazard formed by hydrological and atmospheric processesVulnerability: A high risk combines in an inability of individuals and communities to copeDisaster: A hazard becoming reality in an event that causes deaths and damage to goods/property and the environmentRisk: The probability of a hazard event occurring and creating loss of lives and livelihoods

Risk of Disaster:

Types of Risk (decreasing severity): People Death and severe injuries Disease Goods Economic losses Infrastructure damage Property damage Environment Pollution

Why do people remain exposed to hazards? Changing risks Difficult to predict where or when a hazard will occur Changing human activities leads to changing areas at risk Lack of alternatives Poor and most vulnerable are forced to live in unsafe location Shortage of land or lack of knowledge Benefits versus costs Benefits of land over change of hazard E.g. fertile land on flanks of volcano Risk perception People are optimistic about hazards occurring Comforted by statistics

Measuring risk: People living in areas of high physical exposure to hazards and with high levels of human vulnerability will be most at risk

Risk equation:Risk (R) = frequency or magnitude of hazard (H) x level of vulnerability (V) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------capacity of population to cope and adapt (C)Risk is getting worseIncreasing F: Climate change increasing frequency and severity of hydro-met hazardsIncreasing V: Unsustainable development Environmental degradationDecreasing C: Poverty UrbanisationIs Global Warming the Worlds Greatest Hazard? Global problem Affects all areas of the world Chronic hazard Increases the severity and frequency of hydro-meteorological hazards Increases spread of diseases Range of impacts Threatening societies and their economies Unpredictable The effects depend on how fast the tipping point is reached Negative and positive feedback cycles are interlocking Dependent on how effectively we can mitigate Can become catastrophic Indirect impactsKey Terms:Albedo: How much solar radiation a surface reflectsClimate Change Any long-term trend or shift in climate detected by a sustained shift in the average value for any climatic eventEnhanced Greenhouse Effect: This occurs when the levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere increase owing to human activityFossil Fuels: Energy sources that is rich in carbon and which release carbon dioxide when burntGlobal Warming: A recently measured rise in the average surface temperature of the planetGreenhouse Effect: The warming of the Earths atmosphere due to the trapping of heatTipping Point: The point at which a system switches from one state to another

Rising temperatures can lead to sea level rise due to thermal expansion Requires successful modelling Sheer complexity of calculations makes this incredibly hard Difficult to separate the effects Can be mixed with atmospheric oscillations such as ENSO Requires global solution All countries must contribute in cutting carbon emissions Strongly contested There are still climate sceptics Costly problem to solve Enormous scale and proportions

Global Hazard Trends

How and why are natural hazards now becoming seen as an increasing global threat?

Hazard Trends:

Governments to UN agencies report disaster statistics, but they are only as good as the methods used to collect them. No universally agreed definition of a disaster Death umbers depends on direct or indirect deaths are counted Events in remote places are frequently under-recorded Disaster statistics may be subject to political influences Statistics are complex to collect

Different databases are used to collect data: Local governments or NGOs Businesses e.g. NAT, CAT, SIGMA Global organisations e.g. Em-Dat

Analysis of Hazard Trends:

Are hazards always reported? From 1960 there has been an increase in hazards reported From 1980 there has been a large spike in hazardsAnalysis: More technology, more accurate findings and easier to report due to better communications Geophysical stayed similar Hydro-meteorological increasing rapidly due to global warming Biological started spiking in 1993 increased temperatures due to global warming Since 1960 there has been satellite remote sensing and global communications began

Contrasting Trends:Key Terms:Frequency: How often an event of a certain size occurs.Magnitude: The size of an event

Geophysical: Variations over time because of clustering events over plate boundaries There is no solid increase in volcanic and earthquake activityHydro-meteorological: Because of the climate change the frequency, magnitude and impact of these disasters is likely to grow Environmental damage will also make the disasters worseGlobal Warming and Increasing Hurricanes Sea temperatures are rising due to climate change Hurricanes frequency and magnitude is directly linked to sea temperature See increasing number of hurricanes from 6 per year in 1905 1930 to 15 per year in 1995 However there seems to be an oscillation in hurricane patterns from the Pacific Ocean to the Atlantic, which is seen to be linked to ENSO

El Nino Southern Oscillation

Normal Year: Low air pressure over Australia wet conditions High air pressure over South America dry condition Trade winds move warm surface water towards the western pacificEl Nino Year: High air pressure over Australia droughts, fires Low air pressure over South America floods Trade winds reverse and warm water sloshes eastward Suppression of cold current reduces fish catches of South American coast Fewer severe hurricanes and tornadoes in USA and CanadaLa Nina Year: Low air pressure over Australia floods High air pressure over South America droughts and fires Trade winds intensifyHuman Factors in Disasters:

Rapid population growth: Pressure on the land people living in high-risk areas Number of elderly people and people who are more vulnerable (e.g. very young)Deforestation and degradation of land: Deforestation causes flooding and soil erosion climate change Mangrove destruction increases coastal erosion and flooding Farming in marginal areas can lead to desertificationUrbanisation Development of shanty towns which are at risk and are less structurally soundPoverty and politics Higher death tolls in LICs Cannot afford to prepare for emergencies They may not have the education to understand the risks of the hazard Difficult to get aid if infrastructure poor and remote Corrupt governments may misuse resources

Trends in Human Costs:

Reported deaths: Dramatic fall in 1900 due to better prediction and protection Death rate now levelled off due to increased hydro-met disasters Around 25,00-40,000 deaths per year with the exception of some years e.g. 2004Number of people affected: Overall rise since 1991 188 million per year on average affected LICs and MICs have highest rates of people affected Vulnerable people and areas are more affectedEconomic losses: Grown exponentially Insured losses grown less dramatically Generally HICs see greater economic losses and less human losses Economic losses appear greater in HICs however for LICs it is a greater proportion of GDP

Will the Impacts of Natural Hazards Increase:

Yes: Increasing population in poor countries Increasing magnitude and frequency of hydrological hazards More people living in vulnerable areas e.g. Iceland and Sri Lanka Increasing economic damage in LICs Cycle of poverty worsens vulnerabilityNo: Increased prediction: National Hurricane Centre Improved GPS of hazards forming Prevention Education of public National disaster day Japan (01/09) Leaflets on controlled burning in Australia Adapted buildings Sprinklers in Australia Rolling weights Automatic shutters Shock-absorbers San Fran airport, Tamaki Building, Yokohoma Landmark TowerFor every $1 spent on preparedness, countries save $3-4 after disaster strikes Response Better response by governments e.g. Hurricane Sandy

Global Hazard Patterns

Why are some places more hazardous and disaster-prone than others?

Distribution and Impacts of Global Natural Hazards:Key Terms:Asthenosphere: Semi-molten zone of rock underlying the Earths crustConservative boundary: A boundary between plates where the movement of the plates is parallel to the plate margin and the plates slide past each otherConstructive boundary: A boundary between plates where the plates are diverging or moving apartDestructive boundary: A boundary between plates where the plates are moving together (converging)Lithosphere: The crust of the Earth, around 80-90km thickMagma: Molten material that rises towards the Earths surface when hotspots when the asthenosphere generate convection currentsPlates: Rigid, less dense slabs of rock floating on the asthenosphere

Plate Boundaries: Seven major plates and many smaller ones Some plates are oceanic (more dense) and others continental

Earthquakes:Type: GeophysicalCauses:EpicentreFault

LineFocus:Spreading out semisonic waves

Destructive Plate Boundary: Oceanic subducted under continental Two oceanic or continental colliding Shallow, intermediate and deep earthquakesConstructive: Oceanic plates moving apart Shallow, low-magnitude earthquakes Most are submarineConservative: Plates slide past each other Frequent, shallow earthquakesImpacts: Collapsing of buildings and other infrastructure Can cause soil liquefaction, landslides, avalanches and tsunamis

Volcanoes:Key Terms:Hotspot: A localised area of the Earths crust with an unusually high temperaturePlume: An upwelling of abnormally hot rock within the Earths mantel

Type: GeophysicalDefinition: An opening or rupture in the surface or crust of the Earth, which allows hot lava, volcanic ash and gases to escape from the magmaCauses: Plates collide and increase in energy Magma comes from deep inside the interior of the planet, rising towards the surface Magma is light, hot and buoyant, allowing it to rise It rises and fathers in a reservoir Usually the magma will erupt onto the surface Oceanic-continental destructive boundaries cause explosive and destructive volcanoes Continental-continental destructive plates cause very rare but devastation volcanoes At mid-plate hotspots the plate move over a zone of magma convection and creates effusive and non-violent eruptions. Most of the magma that reaches the Earths surface wells up at oceanic ridges such as the mid-Atlantic. Mostly on the sea Rift valleys occur where the continental crust is being stretched. East African rift valley has a line of 14 active volcanoes

Impacts: Produces sulphur dioxide which can reduce global warming E.g. Mount Tambora a year without summer Gas emissions from volcanoes can lead to acid rain Deposited lava and soil can create very fertile soil If ash and mud mix with snow and rain, lahars are created

Slides:Type: GeophysicalDefinition: Movement of a mass or rock, debris or earth down a slope.Causes: Usually triggered by torrential rainfall or seismic activity Can also be caused by changes in ground water and man-made changesLandslides: Saturated soil Weak sedimentary rock Solid bedrock below weak material Water flowing through the rocks Removal of vegetation Undercutting through excavation Building on hilltops e.g. Hong KongAvalanches Heavy snowfall on previous layers of snow and ice High mountainous areas on slopes steeper than 35 degreesImpacts: Seventh biggest killer 1,400 deaths per year Debris can endanger lives and structures Falling of large volumes can also cause flash floods Blockages can cause remoteness for some areas Loss of productivity in areas affected Indonesia has the most people exposed (197,372), then India (180,254)

Droughts:Type: Hydro-meteorologicalKey Terms:Inter-tropical convergence zone: A zone of low atmospheric pressure near the equator, which migrates seasonally

Definition: A slow onset and creeping hazard that occurs when precipitation falls below normal and expected levelsCauses: Not enough rain falls to the ground High air pressure allows no water to rise ITCZ migrates causing droughts in the areas that it is not encircling El Nino can cause droughts in Australia and the east Anticyclones which block depressions reduce rainfall and cause floods

Impacts: Less agriculture production Rural-urban migration Increase in commodity prices Increase risk of fires Depleted river and lakes and water storage Rapid spread of dehydration and disease Affects 70% of the worlds people and livestock

Flooding:Type: Hydro-meteorologicalDefinition: Common hazard which is when there is an excess amount of waterCauses:Coastal: Human Deforestation Mangrove clearance Climate change Physical Sub-areal processes Long-shore drift Mass-movement Coastal erosionRiver Human Deforestation Dam failures Urbanisation Poor agricultural practices Soil compaction Climate change Physical Snow melt Monsoons Geology Intensive rainfall Landslides El Nino DepressionsImpacts: Damage to homes and possessions Disruption to communications Deposits fine silt making it very fertile Evident in 33% of the worlds area which is inhabited by over 80% of the population

Storms:Type: Hydro-meteorologicalDefinition: Violent disturbance of the atmosphere with strong winds and usually rain, thunder, lightning or snow. Storm surges are the rising of the sea as a result of wind and atmospheric pressure changes associated with a stormCauses: Occurs of water of at least 70m in depth and 5 degrees north or south of the equator, at over 26 degrees Celsius Water warms and air rises upwards in a anticlockwise direction caused by the coriolis effect Air at the top cools and forms heavy cloud which produce extremely heavy rainfall Warm water from the ocean continues to drive the hurricane Once it reaches land it starts to slow downImpacts: Can cause storm surges and large waves which destroy property and comes Can be devastating for lives, livelihoods and infrastructure

Disaster Hotspots:

Identifying and Defining Hazard Hotspots Multiple hazard zonesRisk of MortalityRisk of Economic Losses

TaiwanTaiwan

El SalvadorDominican Republic

Costa RicaJamaica

PhilippinesEl Salvador

DominicaGuatemala

GuatemalaJapan

JapanCosta Rica

IndonesiaPhilippines

JamaicaColombia

BangladeshBangladesh

Historical vulnerability and potential vulnerability and GDP is taken into accounts In 2001, World Banks Disaster Management Facility identified disaster hotspots Used GIS techniques

Managing a Hazard Hotspot Identification of hotspots has major implication for development and investment planning However many hazard-prone areas have a list of priorities greater than disaster management May be unable to afford technology to cope

Investigating the Hazard Risk of Your Local Area Research history of hazard events through historic document Searching online and asking older residents will also yield these results You can also carry out a risk assessment to discover the risk of your area from the big 6 hazards

Climate Change and its Causes

Is global arming a recent short-term phenomenon or should it be seen as part of long-term climate change?Key Terms:Climate: The average conditions of precipitation, temperature, pressure and wind measured over a 30-year periodClimate Change Any long-term trend or shift in climate detected by a sustained shift in the average value for any climatic eventThermohaline circulation: A global system of surface and deep-water ocean currents, driven by differences in temperature and salinity between areas of the oceansGlacial: A period of significant cooling and reduced global temperatures so there is an advance of ice on earthInterglacial: A period of relative warming between glacials, raised global sea levels and retreat in ice

Back in time: long term climate change: Last 400,000 years there have been 4 interglacials and glacials Glacial periods last around 100,000 years Interglacials last around 10,000 There have been huge changes over the Earths history of climate We are living in the holocene The last glacial period ended around 18,000 years ago Around 5000 years ago temperatures were 102 degrees high than todayEvidence of Long Term Climate Change: Ice Cores: Cores from ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica Trapped air bubbles which contain CO2 and Oxygen As long at 890,000 years ago High concentrations of CO2 in interglacials High concentration of 18O contentment in oceanic water Sequences of sea level change link and correlate well with CO2 and oxygen findings However very expensive and can only be found in very cold regions Pollen Analysis: Pollen is preserved in sediment Pollen identified and dates and show the ecology of the past Conditions were similar when similar plants were around Very cheap and widely available Shows that ecosystems have changed in response to climate change UK tundra was present in glacial periods and forest gradually colonised areas in interglacials However plants are place specific so should only be used as supportive data May lag behind Sea Level Change: Past sea levels are shown by raised beaches Fjords and rias form in periods of low sea levels

Medium term climate change: Last 1000 years there has been steady temperature with recent exponential growth Medium warm period from 1000-1400 Little Ice age from 1400-1900 Data used is proxy

Evidence of Medium Term Climate Change: Historical Records: Indirectly indicate different conditions in the past Artistic and photographic sources, time series data, written descriptions, diaries and records E.g. Frost fare Thames in 1814 shows cooler temperatures Charles Dickens books show London as snowy, depicting a cooler climate Grape harvest data show warmer temperatures Greenland sagas describe warmer descriptions of Greenland Unreliable, localised, generalised, subjective, mainly northern hemisphere Dendrochronology: Tree rings form each year and are different sizes according to atmospheric conditions Narrow rings in climatic stress Date up to 10,000 years ago Localised and doesnt differentiate between different growth factors Glacial Retreat: Glacials shrink and grow in response to climate change Changes can be tracked by maps, paintings and photos Rocks that are deposited can be dated Shows that many glaciers reached maximum extent in 1850 However we cant date the moving of glaciers Relies on proxy records before 1880

Global warming? Recent climate change: Warming from 1910 to 1940 Cooling from 1950 to 1970 Unprecedented warming since Hockey stick Mann

Evidence of Short Term Climate Change: Weather records: Details have been constantly collected since 1861 Near surface air temperature rose by 0.74 degrees between 1906 and 2005 Constant warming trend since 1960 11 of the worlds 12 hottest years happened between 1995 and 2006 Oceans warmed to a depth of 3000m PH of ocean decreased from 1.25-8.14 Global sea level have risen, 1.8mm/year from 1961-2003 Most of this is due to thermal expansion (60%) Ice Response: Ice melting in a warmer world Arctic sea ice is declining by 8.5% per decade 90% of glaciers in the Antarctic peninsula have retreated Melting of Greenland ice sheet has increased by 16% since 1979 Alpine glaciers have thinned by 1m per year Temperatures of permafrost have increased by 3 degrees Ecosystem Changes: Affect availability of food and shelter Affects the species in an area Different species migrate and are sensitive by small temperature changes

Drivers of Climate Change:Astronomical Forcing: Milankovitch developed the argument of climate forcing in 1924 Temperatures change due to orbit and axis tilt Every 100,000 the orbit changes from circular to elliptical Every 41,000 years the earths axis tilts from 21.5 degrees to 24.5 degrees Every 22,000 the earths axis wobbles and the Earth is closer to the sun However this accounts to no more than a 0.5 degree temperature change Can trigger change but feedback mechanisms are needed to sustain themSolar Output: Amount of energy emitted by sun varies because of sunspots 11 year sunspot cycle Maunder minimum was 70 years with no sunspots between 1645 and 1715 Suggested that 20% of 20th century warming could be attributed to solar output variation

Volcanic and Cosmic Causes: Major eruptions eject material into the stratosphere where winds distribute it Mount Tambora in Indonesia in 1815 ejected 200 million tonnes of sulphur dioxide Cooling would only be short term

Human: Enhanced Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Increased CO2, methane, nitrous oxide and water vapour Levels of CO2 have increased since industrial revolution Increased from 280ppm to 395.5ppm (1850-2009) Concentration of over 450ppm is expected to lead to an increase global temperature of 2 degrees Methane increasing from agriculture and animals, from 1950 annual emissions have quadrupled, 700-1940 ppb from 1800 to 2008 Nitrous oxide produced from soil and fertilizers, 270-318 ppb from 1800 to 2008

Destruction of Natural CO2 sinks: CO2 sinks store CO2 Biggest sinks are oceans Another big sink is plants Destroyed through deforestation Sinks cannot keep up with increasing CO2 emissions

Uncertainties:Predictions of emissions levels and their impacts are difficult, because its is hard to predict the following: The level and nature of economic development, particularly in countries like India and China, which will determine greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions What degree of international action will be taken to reduce emissions The inertia in the system even if GHG emissions stabilise, climate change will continue The impact of positive feedback, for example as permafrost areas thaw due to global warming the powerful GHG methane will be releases, increasing global warming still further

The Impacts of Global Warming

What are the impacts of global warming and why should we be concerned?Key Terms:Habitat: The environment of plants and animals, in which they live, feed and reproducePermafrost: Permanently frozen groundThermohaline circulation: A global system of surface and deep-water ocean currents, driven by differences in temperature and salinity between areas of the oceansGlacial: A period of significant cooling and reduced global temperatures so there is an advance of ice on earthInterglacial: A period of relative warming between glacials, raised global sea levels and retreat in ice

Direct Impacts: Over the next 100 years temperatures could rise a further 3-5 degrees over land and up to 7 degrees over the oceans When the ice melts there is lower albedo so less heat is reflected and more is absorbed The melting of ice could make the arctic oceans less saline and warmer This would weaken the formation of the arctic conveyor

Decrease in world crop yields Water shortages in several areas and sea level rise threat Large fraction of ecosystems damaged Corel reef damage and amazon collapse 20-50% of species may face extinction Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves Increases in hurricane intensity leading to a doubling of damage costs in the USKey Terms:Eustatic Change: Change in sea level due to change in the amount of water in the oceansIsostatic Change Movement of land in response to loss or gain of massThermal Expansion: Increased volume of oceans due to higher water temperatures

Sea Level Rise A worst case scenario of a 15m sea level rise by 2100 would put many of the worlds great cities at rise Great uncertainty in predicting eustatic sea-level rise

Difficulty due to: Difficulty of predicting future gas emissions Whether the model adopts a business as usual scenario Difficulty of predicting the thermal expansion of oceans on melting of ice sheets Modelling is complex and ice sheets could increase in size with increasing snowfall Thermal expansion is the main factor (25%) Sea level is rose at around 1.7mm per year in the 20th century It is now increasing at around 3mm per year since 1993 Vulnerable areas include: Large river deltas Low lying areas Low lying islands

Predicting Emissions and their Impacts

IPCC: Formed in 1988 it is a joint organisation of the World Meteorological Organisation and the United Nations Environment Programme It: Collects data about the atmosphere Observes sea levels and the extent of ice Measures greenhouse gas concentrations Uses supercomputers to predict global warming impacts They have predicted 4 scenarios A1 a converging world Rapid global economic growth 9 billion by 2050, decreasing after that By 2100 global GNP is 26x that of 2007 Rapid introduction of new, energy efficient technology International cooperation A1FI technology based on fossil fuels A1T - technology based on non-fossil fuel sources A1B technology balanced across all energy resources A2 a divided world Reduced globalisation Population increases and fertility rate fall slowly Regional wealth differences Technological change very slow B1 a converging world Reduced global income differences 9 billion by 2050, followed by steady decline Service and information economy Cleaner efficient technology used By 2100 more forest than 1900 B2 global social, economic and environmental sustainability Progress at local levels Slowly increasing population Lower economic growth but diverse changes in technology More forest as before Also predicts:

GHG Predictions: In a business as usual situation levels will reach 550ppm by 2035, India and China contributing 75%

The IPCC also hypothesises: Population Income Energy use Fossil Fuel use Energy efficiency

Stern Review: Written by former Chief Economist of World Bank, Sir Nicolas Stern, and published by UK government in 2006 Focussed on economic impacts on global warming Environmental impacts: Increasing global floods risk Declining crop yields 200 million permanently homeless Extinction of 40% of Earths species Economic impacts: Reduce global GDP by 1% 2-3 could reduce GDP by 3% 5 could cause a loss of 10% of GDP Options for change Reduce demand for heavily polluting goods or services Efficient global energy supply Prevent deforestation Promote clean energy UK government response Reduce CO2 emissions by 30% by 2020 and 60% by 2050 Carbon reduction laws Invest in green technology $20 billion world bank fund for poor countries

Tipping Points: Arctic sea ice: Tipping point for total loss of sea ice is imminent Greenland ice sheet: Tipping point could reduce melting time from 300 to 50 years West Antarctic ice sheet: could collapse if edges melt El Nino: Could be effected by warming of pacific Indian monsoon: Relies on temperature difference between land and sea which could become skewed West African monsoon: Past has changed to cause green in Sahara but could now cause drought Amazon rainforest: Could cause collapse of rain supporting the ecosystem Boreal forests: Cold trees in Siberia and Canada are dying as temperatures rise

Coping with Climate Change

What are the strategies for dealing with climate change?Key Terms:Adaptive Capacity: The extent to which a system can cope with climate change.Climate Vulnerability: The degree to which a natural or human system lacks the ability to cope with climate change

Mitigation vs Adaptation:Mitigation: Slowing global warming by tackling the main cause: GHG Also increasing size of carbon sinks Adresses the causes Global action Very expensiveAdaption: Dealing with the consequences Mainly at a local level Do not solve the problem Mitigation will see need some adaption Not always sustainable and may damage future generations

Mitigation generally involves upfront costs whereas adaptation spreads the costs over a longer period of time Mitigation is better on the environment and adaptation might condemn the species which cannot adapt The high value of natural ecosystems is a strong argument for acting now with mitigation HICs have resources to act now but LICs dont have the adaptive capacity Those LICs also have high levels of climate vulnerability They do not have the financial, physical and human capacity to cope It increase their adaptive capacity they need: Reduce poverty Increased access to resources Improved education Improved health Improved infrastructure Linked to development

Mitigation Strategies:International:Kyoto: In 1988 the IPCC was set up In 1992 the Rio Earth Summit took place and 190 countries signed a treaty agreeing that they would manage climate change In 1997 they met in Kyoto to create a protocol Required all signatures to have a GHG reduction target Exemption of emerging economies Wasnt ratified until 2005 when Russia signed (needed 65% of global emissions) Expired in 2012

Copenhagen: 2009 aimed to reduce carbon emissions by 2015 and 2020 Drafted between the US, China, India, Brazil and South Africa but was to take not of and was not adapted Not legally binding but by 2010 138 countries signed Talks in Cancn took the accord reached at Copenhagen a stage further. Countries agreed: to try and set up a green fund that will distribute money to help poor countries cope with climate change; increased international co-operation on low-carbon technology; more help for developing nations preserve their forests. Began at the Bali Roadmap where there was talk of adding BRIC nations to an agreement Kyoto focussed on carbon stock whereas Copenhagen was focussing on carbon flowsBetween 2005 and 2030, much of the new CO2 being produced will come from developing countries this is called the carbon flow.In 2005, much of the extra CO2 already added to Earths atmosphere has come from developed countries. This is called the carbon stock. Developing countries are not as responsible for this legacy.

For the first time it united the US, China and other major countries

Mitigation technology: Clean coal pre-treated coal Geothermal uses naturally hot rocks Nuclear harnesses energy from splitting atoms Marine uses the energy of shifting tides Wind uses wind to drive turbines Solar gathers energy from sunlight Hydroelectric dams water and constrains it through turbines Hydrogen transport roads and rails Electric transport roads Biofuel road, rail, ships and airKey Players:Businesses: Many countries have a vest interest in polluting TNC funded the Global Climate Coalition (Mobil, BP, Shell, Ford etc) Opposed climate change and funded research to counter it Companies left the GCC in 2002 and now many of them are green Change in attitude is seen in the establishment in 2007 of the US Climate Action Partnership Members include many of the same as those in the GCC

Taxing and Trading: Many countries tax a car depending on its emission levels This will act as an incentive to buy environmentally friendly cars The EU cap and trade scheme was an example of a compulsory scheme to reduce firms emissions Firms can buy and sell permits depending on their emissions

Examples of Mitigation Strategies: International: Kyoto protocol Green fund Climate charities WWF Greenpeace Friends of the Earth Sierra club Cap and trade scheme Carbon offsetting Shell Pumping waste CO2 into 500 greenhouses Rio Earth Summit National: Contraction v convergence 3 Gorges dam Hinckley point UK car taxation Brazil Bunge Using pig waste Regional: Green homes program Londons climate change strategy New york, Mayor Bloomberg Local: Brent council recycling BEDZED Sutton Local Agenda 21 Individual: Climate crusaders: Coldplay Rush of blood to the head -2002 10,000 mango trees in india Al Gore An inconvenient truth H Scott Lee Wall Mart sustainability 360

The Challenge of Global Hazards for the FutureHow should we tackle the global challenged of increase risk and vulnerability in a hazardous world?

Enormity of the ChallengeHigher temperaturesMore hazardous world. Great impact on water and food supplies, especially for worlds most vulnerable peopleIncreased evaporationMore water vapour. More ice sheet and glacier melt. Accelerating changes because of positive feedbacksWorsening greenhouse effectMajor issue of rising sea levels.Global warming impactsMore uncertaintyMore extreme weather with more uncertainty.Rising temperatures and changing precipitation patternsGrowing incidence of drought and flood eventsGrowing incidence of severe stormsMore impactsMore food insecurityConflicts over water crisesMore vulnerable people plunged into povertyEnvironmental refugees

Water shortages: 50% of population could face severe water shortages by 2025 2.8bn currently experience water stress 1.2bn because of physical scarcity 1.6bn because of poverty or poor governance

Food Shortages: Shouldnt be effected due to adaptive techniques BUT there will be both winners and losers

Sustainable Development: