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AF58 v £ Report No. AF-58a

Volume 22

-- ---re - w-ith.n te Bunk anuJ its tu fft.li tled L it uti .They do not accept responsibility for its accuracy or completeness. The report mayJ noLit MC ML.e published nor may .t LC quoted us iC!Jrep r Iiij tiilr views. l

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INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT

INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION

PROSPECTS FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN EAST AFRICA

tin four volumes!

VOLUME IV - UGANDA

(in seven parts)

PART FIVE: ATNNEX D - TRPANSPORT

Au uSt- '3 1, 16A7

Africa Department

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EQUIVALENTS

Currency

1 Uganda Shilling = U. S. $0. 14U.S. $1 = U. Sh 7. 14' = STTC $. QA

= U. Sh 20.00

Weiht

Throughout this report. unless otherwisestated, tons refers to long tons of 2240 lbs.

COMPOSITION OF THE MISSION

This report is based on the findings of a Mission to East Africawhich did its field work in October, November and December 1966 and consistedof the following:

John C. de lTilde. Chief of Mission (IBRD)

Colin V. F. Bruce, Deputy Chief of Missionand Chief Economist - Kenva (TRRD)

Kudlapur G. V. Krishna, Economist - Kenya (IBRD)C. CT_ Akhurqt- AgrcrimifnrAl Ad-viser - Kenrv (FAn)Maurice Fenn, Agricultural Economist - Kenya (FAO)

Per Tvei+.te, -ir Depy Ghief of Mlion M

and Chief Economist - Tanzania (Consultant)Bruno E. Scheterma, Economlst - Tanzania (TTPR)

Archie Forbes, Agricultural Adviser - Tanzania (FAO)Ta cque Kahane, Agricultural Ec I onomis - Tan nia (ITRP)

Otto Maiss, Deputy Chief of Missionand Chief Economist UgTTa-Td (ID)

Nicholas Carter, Economist - Uganda (IBRD)David rVT. . Haynes, Agricultural Adviser - Uganda (IBRD)Montague Yudelman, Agricultural Economist - Uganda (Consultant)

H. David Davis, Auviser on Tourism (IBRD)Bernard H. Decaux, Adviser on Industry (Consultant)Jfaclk-J Derrick,9 AV.Liser on In1UsUIry (Uo1nULUtLitanJ

Edward V. K. Jaycox, Adviser on Transport (IBRD)Aristides J. Macris, Adviser on Agricultural Training

and Education (IBRD)Davd ldMcLejllan,l Adu-vi ser, on G eai Educationi (Conrsultarnt)Lyell H. Ritchie, Adviser on Industrial Finance (IFC)Gavin Wyatt, Adviser on Power (IBRD)

The Mission's findings relate for the most part to the situation asof the end of 1966, although in some respects note has been taken of developmentsup to the middle of 1967.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page No.

SUVIJARY AND CONCLUSIONS

A. The Transport EconoriyV...................................... 1T'h, C.r,+ rm 1,Pl±±e Sys J.............................1..

Transport Coordination ........................ ........ 3PhysiLca.L iNeeus ......................................... 4

Staffing and Organizational Needs ...................... 5Thie £JnO..d.hI..................... v

Estimated Public Investment in Transport ............... 7

B. Roads and Road Transport .................................. 9Growth in Vehicle Fleet and Road Use .. 9The Road Systemsm...... . . 9Road Administration . .. .11Road lHaintenance. . ................... 12Road Construction ...... ..... .... ... 13Planning Road Investments . . 14A Road Program.. .... ..... 14Financing the Road Program ........................... 16Project Identification . .. 16

C. Airports..... 18

NAP

TRANSPORT D!i' UGANDA

SU2MARY AND CONCLUSIONS

1. Uganda's internal transport system is in general sufficient in extent andin adequate condition to meet present and foreseeable needs. However, the capacityof the vital railway line to the sea, through Kenya and the port of IHlombasa, is tobe rapidly expanded, since combined Kenya and Uganda rail traffic is increasing andcostly congestion and delay must be avoided; also, some main road sections requireupgrading where traffic densities justify it.

2. In some areas of high agricultural production, the secondary arid minornetworks are inadequate for present traffic. There is need for comprehensive as-sessment of these requirements and for better liaison between planning authoritiesresponsible for transport and those responsible for the productive sectors.

3. Road conditions, while still generally good, are beginning to deteriorateas a result of inadequate maintenance in recent years, especially with respect toperiodic regraveling and bituminous resealing. Financial allocations for mainten-ance have not kept up with traffic grovith or the increasing cost of labor, materi-als and equipment. Accordingly, the Nviission recommends a substantial increase inthe road maintenance budget.

The Mlinistry of Communications. IWJorks and Housing. which is rpsponsiblefor assessing the needs for all modes of transport in Uganda, is seriousl:y under-.qtaffed- There i.s no nlhnning machinerv c.anahle of making economicassensntn.and the engineering staff is inadequate in numbers. A suitable strengthening ofthe Ministrv is urgent if the countrvr' transport p1ar.rinia cDn 0: :ic i.r3.ct-eL.s arnd be implemented effectively.

5. Road and rail development suffer from the absence of rigorous economicanalysisz o n an i hnfrae bais~ whi. hlc has~ sometP+imes-- ledH ton duplnlcaioe_+n rof facriIi-

ties. While the program of road works takes a suitable long-term view, costs havebeen seriously inderesa+oat andl in ar.y ervn+ the Rnods anr Aerodromes Div,i on

of the Ministry does not llow have the capacity to implement the programn. The roadprogram must therefore be reassessed to establlsh economlc priorities.

6. TvT i . Ai cn hna assessd +.th adm,rl , nstrative a .dtehnicanl capacr. i t.yr of' +the

lvMinistry and EAR&H and has established an order of economic priority with respectto outstanding projects wi4+h,in +he -- ----- r.. On ths a we forecast a 4totalpublic capital investment of 128.9 million during the Plan period. The road andairport

7'. Li 4V4 -p i 4 this i4vestment depend or. a q-4ui reversa of the 4 dec A--L-ini

trend in staff capacity. Most of EAR&H external financial requirements are as-sured for the first fewv y earI UJ± Ulof ItLhe I Pn IeiUU, aLr, tUe rodUU dLIU adairpUorI pIgram,

outlined by the Mission should attract foreign assistance once firmer cost; esti-maues are ava'Lable anUd economJc assessmen1ts have bUeU lU. S±lnce IhIU ilUdcaL COStSof these programs are well in excess of Uganda's capacity to finance, the lMissionleels uriat part of1 tIluhe, 1 dUUIUIU_L uL dLi tAlC U UIU1ll eACIiaige CoStS, srluulu ueprovided by external aid agencies.

TRANSPORT IN UGANDA

A. The Transport Economy l/

The System

1. Uganda's transport system is in general sufficient in extent arid in ade-quate condition to meet Dresent and foreseeable intereitv transport needs. Allareas of the country now have at least an all-weather trunk road connection withthe main urban and market centers. The next stage of transnort investment plan-ning should therefore concentrate on meeting local transport needs in connectionwith agricu1ltural developmentj and on establishing the appropriate timing, of suchimprovements in the trunk system as are needed to meet growth in transport demand.

2. The basic internal transport system (see Map) consists of 721 miles ofrai'IT.Tnr iin abn ut 150 mn -Jileso mai,n -econd-an -an o+her pbc r-d-c.s, nla

water services on Lake Victoria and 15 airports or airfields serving sche!duled orcharter f1 1gh+s. Since -n ics a landLc-eA -- +- some 700 M,i--es from the

nearest seacoast, and with an economy heavily dependent upon import/export trade,

main Kenya/Uganda Railway Line to the port of Mombasa. An alternative outlet isIJU iLdll V I U UUU o , hiwaVdLz. Jni M±d-_ -_ ± -_i L,ie ±dl1z aLLaI1 a±j. tacross Lak-e ViTct1-oria to 1'1CLrain, TLL1 andL11L thenby- Uhe L Tanzania ral] system t

Dar es Salaam. Uganda is a joint owner, with Kenya and Tanzania, of these raillinks, water servies and seaports, which are operated as a common service for thethree countries by the East African Railways and Harbors Administration (EAR&H).

3. To its west and north, Uganda has links with the Congo, Rwanda and Sudan,although these are not highly developed due to formidabie natural barriers and pre-independence trading and transport policies. Internally, communications are hin-dered somewhat by the River Nile, which cuts the country from south to north, andLake Kyoga with its extensive papyrus swamps, which lies across direct access be-tween the populous fringes of Lake Victoria and the less-developed northern partsof the country.

4. Kampala, the capital and major cormmercial city, is the main transporthub of the country. Mlost of the import/export traffic by rail originates from oris destined for, Kampala from which the main roads radiate throughout the country.Tororo, on the Kenya border, is also an important transport center where the mainrail line divides into two main branches to serve the northern and southe!rn partsof the country separated> by-Lake Kyoga. wAhile the railway's- main role is in handlingexport/import traffic and in this respect is a significant element of the internal

1/ VJhile this section considers all transport modes and subsequent sections dis-cuss investment programs for roads and airports, EAR&H programs are discussedin Annex I-A.

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trunk system, inter.al rli tribution for local consumption is almost entirelyr byroad because of the relatively short distances and the type of traffic and loadsinvolved.

Cf 91VA Th -1 l4no k.rn C A oii,r h 1Am +0n rAn-h +hA noi +; ,rnl )r oh - oo; n n ofv *-ve xeV-- vS.

present-day Uganda and it has been a major factor in the country's development. Inan East African context, the ent-;re Ulganda +rnsportsystem Js a feeder or branchnetwork to the rail trunk through Kenya. During 1957-64, rail traffic on the

V-ny- Ug1IT. llne grew at- 4-1he average annual ra -t- ofP-- o 3-- perce because of. ULhe

low and interrupted economic growth of the region during these politically un-certain years.

o6. LJ~~LIiIi±LI~, ±11 L7tJ)Ld.LIU iU1 nnnL1U161a, ctIui UULiUUt 1976, a. dramatic r-ise tUookr

place in the demand for rail transport on the Kenya/Uganda line. After a traffici-ncrease of 7 percent in 1965 over the previous y1ear, he line handled an esti-mated 1.63 billion ton-miles of Kenya and Uganda traffic in 1966, as compared withl.4O billion in 1965, an increa i eas o aly 16 percent. The extraordlnary increasein production and foreign trade in Uganda and Kenya during 1966 accounted for abouthalf the increase. Most of the remainder can be attributed tO exceptional require-ments that are unlikely to recur, such as large grain imports to alleviate thethreat of famine in parts of Kenya and extraordinary nonquota coffee sales by Ugandain late 1965 and early 1966. Traffic through the Mombasa Port increased by anestlmated l1 percent in 1965 and another 12 percent in 1966. This ±lncreased berthoccupancy to a rate over 96 percent and resulted in serious congestion.

7. Uganda's road system is one of the best in tropical Africa in terms ofdensity and serviceability. Since Uganda was "at the end of the line", roaddevelopment was not regarded as a serious threat to the competitive position of therailway. Road transport has a long-established place in the Uganda economy, in themarketing of all crops, in the distribution throughout lhe country of imported anddomestically produced goods and in the intermal movement of passengers. Road trans-port is more important than rail in terms of ton-miles moved within the country.On the basis of traffic counts, vehicle fleet growth and fuel-consumption sta-tistics, road traffic appears to have been growing at an average annual rate of 8percent.

8. Inland waterway transport has declined in importance in recent years,primarily because of the cessation of EAR&H services on Lake Kyoga and Lake Albertwhich were phased out with the opening of the northern extension of the railway toGulu and Pakwach on the River Nile. Water transport on Lake Victoria, however, isstill important in Uganda, and provides an alternative access to the sea. The eco-nomic viability of this route has recently been improved by the introduction of atrain ferry between Jinja, Kisumu and Mwanza.

9. Intermal air transport is relatively unimportant in Uganda, sincedistances are short and most parts of the country are accessible by road in a day'sjourmey from Kampala. The significance of internal air transport lies more in ad-ministrative communications, and charter tourist services to the game parks. Ex-termal air communications between Uganda and Kenya and Tanzania as well as overseas,are of growing importance for the tourist industry and modern commerce. Entebbe,the main airport, handles all international traffic. The eleven smaller airfieldsare fairly well distributed geographically. The air services provided by East

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African Airways (the national airline of Uganda. Tanzania and Kenva) annear ade-quate for Uganda's presenlt needs.

Transport Coordination

10. Transport coordination in the East Afri±can context, both with respect toinvaestment alloeation and an appropriate modal division of function, is complicatedby the fact that each of the three countries has its own national objectilreseve-n thougrh +theyv nll nnr-"c;n-nn n part nersh"ipj for- co-+an^mon+ascr ail

ties, namely for railways, lake services, ports and for some aviation services;road ad -.oa d traS n,spo r+t, Er e, on th bo _the had, e x^l u s i v el y the, c on cer n of the, i-4

dividual country. In the past, "transport coordination" in East Africa has largely0d tc rlmi; ni; tn g +h -~r01 _)AC s, 0 fn A A or a i; - fl _+ r -s , - T-- + _%- so - a4AJ~r--

LIHsO.I LU s wufl 4-1 Lr,.Lln.u 6 UIirU .1 VS.'L |J ,'SaL V1aVCll... Cl. X4.. U1. 0l.sOHI4 u v aLLLu,,SL..EO ut a u t vt jueaiilo

principally through restriction of road transport by licensing regulations toprotLectu Ithel -4ilwa -an 44ts rate structure frmradc,lptton h poepiu u~uu u±±Z Lc"LV.5d. al" L..... uo ±a cl J u b ul t .LILUII ILUaU LUL I1JPU± ±UI. ±)Pti!L -

economic coordination of t;ransport within the East African region as a whole, andUL1the etabLLLLLshment fU approprlate policies fraLc countiry, are nioUV UinILig ZiLUuleU

in detail by a team of consultants. Their task is to recommend an appropriatelypihlasedU ser-les of adUministrativ and P.E VC l pricnllrg mleasures-b Lt rational,ize ulhe t-Uransport

system in the future. This study, to be completed by late 1968, is being financedby lrie UNDPr, with the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development asexecuting agent.

11. Licensing restrictions of the road transport of goods have never beenintroduced in Uganda. For many years investigations have asserted that tne variousmodes of transport are complementary in Uganda and that there is no transportcoordination problem. This is true wnen viewed in an East African contexit. Roadtransport in Uganda does not seriously threaten the mainstay of railway finances,the long-haul trunk line traffic, as it could in Kenya and Tanzania where roadlicensing restrictions have been adopted. (See Annexes II-D and I±i-D). In thecase of Uganda;s export/import traffic, the long average length of haul to the seahas been sufficient to protect this traffic from serious road competition despitethe differential tariff which elsewhere (See Annexes Ii-D and III-D) has t;endedto distort transport demand patterns.

12. The past assertions as to the complementarity of Uganda's transpcortsystem appear to rest in large part on this regional view of the transport; situa-tion. Wlithin Uganda itself, however, there has been to some extent a paralleldevelopment of transport facilities along some routes with resultant underutili-zation of capacity and apparent premature, and therefore wasteful, use of re-sources. The Government has found it necessary to subsidize certain rail linesand extensions by arbitrarily directing to the railway all Govermment traffic, in-cluding that of the cotton and coffee marketing organizations, as well as transittraffic to and from the Congo. This has taken place regardless of possiblycheaper altermatives. At the same time improvement of roads parallel to theselines has taken place or is planned on the basis of road vehicle traffic growth.

13. In the Mission's view, this duplication of rail and road facilities stemslargely from faulty railway investment criteria and the coordination difficultiesimposed by a differential tariff policy. Rail extensions in Uganda have bceen jus-tified on purely financial grounds, by crediting to branch lines and externsions alarge part of the revenue generated on the trunk line from traffic fed by the

branch lines or new extension. The "branch line formula," as it is called, es-pecially favors rail extensions in Uganda because of its distance from the sea.i/Even viewed in an exclusively financial context, this formula ignores the fact thatmost of these long-haul revenues would also accrue to the railways from an im-proved road connection to the rail-head, because the railway would continue tohandle the traffic over the subsequent very long haul from and to the sea. Wherefeeder transport to existing rail-heads has been considered, the economic alterna-tives of road and rail have not been rigorously assessed. Once a rail extensionhas been built and has become a "sunk" investment, the differential rail tariffdoes not attract all the traffic that the railways could probably carry at alower cost than the road system, thus maintaining a higher level of demand forparallel road improvement than would otherwise be the case.

14. The East African joint transport coordination study, to which we haverefprredi. will r1ecommend annronriate transnort investment criteria for each rountryso as to ensure resources allocated to transport are employed in the most efficientmanner Tn driition. tht- study will anaqlv,7, and renmmenri t.ransnort t.aEtion noli-cies, measures to recover road costs through road-user charges, and other crucialaspects of an integrated transport policy.

p-hvsir'a1l\Needs~

5. ~-The unusual rise in demand for rail transport in East. A.frica as a whlholesince mid-1965 has led to serious operating difficulties during peak traffic periods.Whlile the presure of derimnd has had the healthy effect. of imnrovinng railwayoperating efficiency, a general shortage of goods wagons has caused transport de-lays rnd a don of exvort shinpmentsr A badi npiwi-r wagnon renew,anl and nAd--

tions program is under way and more locomotives are being acquired, so that operat-ingy cannpact:y znir shoul b -e oniqiicranlyi incr~-i,reae rliring l9f'7.

1 The rapidgrowA +h in tra+ff a- t the + po rts of Mombs and Dar T s Salaam a1-s

caused congestion and has become a potentially serious bottleneck in Uganda's ac-cess +t 4th1ae sea Programs t o4-s S ae t hl Ssi+tuatn by, AdA inl , , +bs a,n strag

facilities are under way but will necessarily take time to complete. The acquisi-tion of r-sailo ro-rl1 ,ing stoCk , shou]d ease----2 the por t +iuto t- - + Il-o-s - n

siderably by clearing "back-of-port sheds" more rapidly. Low and declining laborprod a nd 4. 4 4- a shortage - - -- -of g al t4an t at 4 th L 4 pI.rts0 54, ag grvatea-- congetio

particularly at peak periods. Immediate attention must be focused on these problemst'Uo bring alboutu quick improvements. -- 4- tia U. LJ

5 ,auau L L~ U L. L I a UVci j 00ILLJ

17. * iii~ U~iIIdiJU jul IU Uud[J0JU.L U LLJ ug<iUC ULC UTtfa nJ IIIU UgnW h LIhUU dUejilay, al-

though increased traffic has resulted in excessive wear and tear on the road sys-tem. The condition of the highways is beginning to deteriorate in generai sincemaintenance, especially periodic maintenance, is lagging behind traffic growth.Wnile major improvement oi a iew particular main roaa sections appears to bejustified by increasing traffic volumes, there are no apparent serious bottlenecksin the main road system.

18. On the other hand, the secondary and minor systems are relatively inade-quate. The secondary network is dense in the more populated areas of the country,but is inadequately constructed and maintained to carry the present traffic volumes

1/ Though the "branch line formula" has been used to justify two railway extensionsin Uganda, the Uganda Government gave a branch line guarantee only to the West-ern Uganda extension used primarily to haul Kilembe copper ore.This guarantee is;no longer operatiVe though EAR&H still moves copper concentrates at sub-economicrates.

and to provide the year-round access increasincily being required. In many areas ofDusoga and Buganda, in particular, local roed construction and improvement has notkent un with demard. In the less-develoned areas of the country, minor road net-works are required in connection w-rith agricultural, and possibly fishing, develop-Tnp.nt. nrnprm-nq.

19. The basic trunk system has few;! gans at today's levels of transnort de-mand. New trunk connections or extensions should be undertaken only after carefuleconomic analysis of the diversion of traffic frorn existing facilities toc deternine

~-t1ei the benefits accru:Lg to the wThole road system justify such investcLa-nt.Wh.ile we believe that fewT opportunities remain for new trunk roads to stirr,il ateeconomic development of then selves, we do believe that certain investments insecondary -ad anr in r.14nn, + ' mlo,ntl-ir local impnorta+.qne ncnil b-aemcme an

important stimulus for such development if integrated with other necessary invest-ment-S 1SevcsU1s uei V1 >1±± \J. j V 1W .

Staffn/ -n Oran__izational1 Needs

20. ~ ~ ~ Ugands ably lo solve it ransport problem,s l eiul fetdb~~.U. U~~dgaUc UL- L AJ OU ± V J. uC Lu. CiIjULIU5 LiJU± I0 L0 o 0 ±1JL_LUUDC_ L±L C LU'y

staff limitations. The staffing situation is especially serious in the Rinistry ofCommunications, 'Works and Housing (MCl;J), the Ministry responsible for planning andiriplementing road and airport prograrmis and for formulating the Government's viewson railway and water services and presenting them to the East African CoUmironServices Organization (EACSO). Not only are there insufficient personnel at the1iinistry, but the existing establishment faiis to include planners and economists,essential to its efficient operation.

21. To improve the size and quality of the staff, a number of steps will haveto be taken. General and technical education and training programs for positionsin the Ministry must be expanded. Salary scales must be so structured and otherincentives so provided for engineering and planning careers in the public servicethat recruitment takes place at an adequate pace. Also, the extensive use offoreign expertise, both within the administration and as consultants, will benecessary as an interim measure for some years until local staff is sufficient andcapable of taking over. In addition to strengthening the staff, organization mustbe improved. At present, t;here is no effective transport planning machinery with-in, the MCW. An adequately staffed transport planning section including representa-tives from the railways and ports should be established as a matter of high priorityand be capable of assessing the road, rail, air and water transport requirementsof the country and of establishing economic priorities. Transport taxation andpricing policies should also evolve from the work of this unit. The unit wouldcollect and evaluate basic transport statistical data, now virtually unavailablein Uganda, especially in the field of road transport. The Govermment has :-ecognizedthe need for strengthening of MCW staff and the planning apparatus, and has takensome steps to increase recruitment and improve organization.

The Plan

22. Uganda's Second Five-Year Plan for 1966/67-70/71 is derived fromr a rmacro-economic model and is expressed primarily in financial rather than physical terms.In the transport sector, the Plan calls for an investment by the Governmertt of f19million, of which about fli.8 million would be spent on road improvements with the

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remaining -Vi2 million on airports and associated roan fcilities The Plnn, how-ever, recognizes planning and implementation limitations and possible financialconstraints; byv setting a total of E 16=o million as a more realistic target for theGovernment's investment in transport. Uganda's expectations as to East AfricanPRin TTqnn ,ri and rharbq i nvetmPnt. in +,he tontnr,fvr n r. fleia+. PI rthn"n.d in the PI n; * nll

other capital investment both public and private, in the transport and communica-tions sector nrivNate rnvesmenf in vehicls annd investment byr Ena

African Posts and Telecommunications) are put together and taken as approximately1,91 muI i nn A,r n a +lhc P1 nfl r-na rnri

23. The broad outline of the Upganda en ments portion - the I lan d no

appear firmly based either on prepared projects or on established priorities. Theroad program consists of a list o- 8- pro Jct, AVtch t;heI - Misslon esi Lmates would

cost about E 32 million to complete. This long list of projects is on the whole awel-l-rounded,I_~ -u4 ' L logtr vew j of whatjz appearst be eu~iured"." Mos h IaveI:ut; bee carried_Lt_

over from the First Five-Year Plan and are still in very early stages of prepara-4ti'on. Alth-1,oug the Pl- - itsa-4 --elf is 4 o - xrse in 4hsia -- teL4 _ ls- _ 4 ) mos of bheuLiU IMI. el VL U511 UI I It: L .Lcu I L LDC-.LL ± - Lo ) U uAjJ.J. CCJDUUt I ±11 Ly0Lk.d.± U5LCL1 ,L ~LULL U _LL LAIC

road projects were expected to be undertaken during the Plan period with about a2Ln-30 percentu carr-y over ofL construct ionu1 into uu-4. -h next. Plan p-iod. Thi suggestcu L)VCiL1 d.LyUVIV UiLIULUU1 1 LliU IIC neAL I dlcII }JJUL_LU. ±L11±5o bUgt-,USLj

that, with more realistic cost estimates, the physical plan would involve a totalexpenditure of close to E26.0 milllon in ruads, about 70 percent greater than theEl4.8 million stipulated in the Plan. This increase is clearly financially andeconomiLcally UU U out I ofL the ques tLLoi for Uganda1ul dul. ±ri unig C the 1 P jla piLoL. iThese pjiysiU l

targets are also unattainable because of present limitations in the capacity of theMiZnIstry of W-"orks to plan and implement projects. Moreover, Lhe u barItA I -

crease in cost estimates for particular projects casts considerable doubt on theireconomic Justification, even though some of them are in an advanced stage oI prepa-ration. The Ministry of W4orks is faced with the large task of reviewing the listof road projects and establishing priorities on the basis of cost/benefit analysesand its capacity to carry out works. The Ministry does not at present have thestaff for this task.

24. EAR&H is currently executing a 1965-67 equipment renewal program and hasprepared a suitable investment program for 1968-71. However, the further extensionof the rail line from Pakwach on the River Nile to Arua in the WTest Nile District,close to the Congo border, mentioned in the Govermment Plan, does not appear in theEAR&H program, and the Government has not assessed economic alternatives for meet-ing West Nile's transport requirements. Furthermore, the Ministry of Works is pro-posing to build an improved road parallel to the suggested rail extension. Theconfusion over transport development in West Nile is an example of the lack ofproper coordination between the Uganda Government and EAR&H which the Missicn be-lieves stems from the absence of sound overall transport planning by the UgandaGovernment. The Government's analysis of railroad programs is distorted somewhatby the regional financialstructure and self-sufficiency of EAR&H, which makes pos-sible both railway investment in Uganda and financiTl subsidies to sections ofUganda's rail system that are not a direct financial burden on the Uganda Govern-ment as such while the indirect financial burden, assumed by Uganda as a partici-pant in the common services, is shared by the other co-owners of the system. As aresult, Ugandan authorities tend to be somewhat biased in favor of rail solutionsto transport problems. The "branch line formula," an element in EAR&H decision-making (see paragraph 13, above), further distorts analysis of economic alterna-tives. The Mission believes that the creation of the recommended transport

planning unit in the NICW, if adequately staffed with qualified economists, couldaid significantly in reaching decisions on the basis of an integrated nationaltransport plan within the context of a partially integrated regional system.

Estimated Public Investment in Transport

25. 1Ihile the Plan gives only the broadest guidelines for a transportprogram, even these do not appear to have been followed. Furthermore, the guide-lines do not indicate a specific program of EAR&H investment. In these circum-stances, the ilission has attempted to outline an investment program, based on ad-.iusted cost estimates, the present status of projects, our assessment of the capa-city of the Government and EAR&H to plan and implenent projects a-nd on our generalviews on transport priorities. The estimated road and airport programs are dis-cussed in subsequent sections of this Annex, while, the EAR&H program is discussedin Annex I-A.

26K The Ivission expects fpnita1 investment in the transnort. sertOr to amountto about B28.9 million (not including a notional third of East African Airways

.Amni+.nl PYnPnH(+.iitrP) riiirincr 1910/(67-70l/71 (aPp Tqhl= 1 o (f tJhp totanl -q,maot. T,1).nmillion would be in road improvements and E1.5 million in airport facilities, for atotal government invrestment oPf about <15 million.- RAtPRJ4- i1 u inemt il wud mo

to about L13.4 million, of which E5.4 million would be for replacement of existingas--et--. The EAl in.vestment is compriJ-d in lar-ge part o rollin. stock and

motive power which is allocated as investment in Uganda according to traffic pat-tern s on the Kenya/Uganda line, but does not include any notional portion of in=vestment in the port of liorbasa.

27. Transport investment will more than double in l966/67, due to the largecapiaLU injection in EiALRHi plan1nedU fL ± L1S67. The1 -_L, 1 O 110 ilUol sLeLes n r C± ciLY

barriers to the realization of the railway program through 1971. EAR&H has alreadyobt'LIaUined miIos0It of ±it s estimated L orei±gn brUo inUVV reuir emeIUntLs ui. Ugui 1k. L'dU Uap-

portunities for further financial assistance appear likely. The fi14 mill-on in-ves'tmlen't -in road mp' vmn andA dVvUelUP1a(Zent andi theu lj.5) ,ml-li-on investme:Int in.airport facilities depend on the capacity of the IMinistry of Works to establishsound priorities, reassess advanced projects in light of more realistic cost esti-mates and to select economic road routes. Unless the Ministry's administrativeandu technical c apa city is- a,Lpove ,- . --- -_sso be-liee tha total-4 i.-4--,vs;mn in__4.-aLIu UCUIILLUdI UpdI.XLUy Lbt "LiIIjJrUVUU, U1J.U_ '

1±1Zib-ULI Ue±ie_LVt:, IU Uii IUO Ut.I ±LkiV Uo I,111tf511U ±11

roads could probably not exceed 11 million in the Plan period, and that, evenfor these expenditures, there wou'ld be no ass-urance that they would follow a sui-able pattern of priorities.

Table 1: MISSIONIS FROJKCTICONS CIF PUBLIC' INVEST1IENT IN TRANSPORT', 1966/67-70/71 a/(in E. million)

Actual_ E/ _ PlaTI Period Trota'

T)t;7/;' i : Tb O 7s/ lMT {/F 77771 i'Fy770 I y 7l7T Plzn Period

]Roads 0.80 1.17 1.02 2.08 3.53 3.63 3.75 4h.06

Airports o.4 3 0.30 0,.15 0.31 0.30 0.3:2 0..2 1.50

Total, Government 1.23 1.47 1,.17 ,2.39 3.8:3 4h00 4 .17 15.56

EAR&H New Investment 0.41 o.904 2.63 :1.61 1.38 1.27 1.04 7.93

Total, New Invest-ment 1.6hI 2.141 3. 0 IL.OO 5.21 5.27 5.21 22.49

EAR&H Replacement 0.29 0.57 2.33 1.05 0.80 o.661 0.61 5.L3

Gross Public c

Investment 1.93 2.98 6.13 5.05 6.01 5.91 5.82 28.92

a/ EAR&H investment in calendar years, 1965-71.

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B. Roads and Road Transport

Growth of Vehicle Fleet and Road Use

28. In 1965, there were about 40,000 vehicles in Uganda, or a vehic:le densityof one per 190 persons, as compared with one per 100 in Kenva and one per 200 inTanzania. The average annual rate of growth of the vehicle fleet was about 5.5percent during 1956-65, but appears to have slowed down between 1959-65 to only 4percent. Private cars constitute about 70 percent of the vehicle fleet and theirnumbers have been growing at above the average rate for the 1955-65 neriod. Thenumber of trucks and buses was almost stationary between 1955 and 1962, because ofan increase in tho avernpgs narrving annpai tv of truinks and t.hn mnrs Pffp.nt.ivp us,ePof trucks as a result of road improvements and partly because of the stagnation ofthe econonymv Since 1Q962 thpre h-,s bheeon nnrose in thp trucnk flppft, ;-veraging7 percent a year which is equal to the growth rate in numbers of private cars.

29. Traffic counts have been taken regularly in Uganda since 1958/59:), al-+.'hrm crh +.ho -1 nr-n+. nn of1 c r:n n ' fr +3I'O +1 n0 r'nlr t 1n1O C+ +: ±1n T.Tnq r,OI-' rlAi i-'n l r rbhT'1- MnA1 lin+i I

1964/65. As a result, it is difficult to establish clear traffic volume trendsalong most of the roads in the country except at about 70 counting stationrs wherecontinuous counts have been kept since 1960. The available data suggest that theaverage aCnnual growth ra-te for mo-st of t1hese llatter statJons ha_s varied be+tween_6-8 percent. Fuel consumption increased over the period 1961-65 at a 4 percentaverage nnu.a.l rat-e in -iiuthe case olf gaso-jLine andu at 8---4- pecn for ---- I. The

weighted average of the two suggests that highway fuel consumption has increased atabu ecn rnulyi eetyas,ad ntelgh of a trend tov,rardabout A. pecn - -11 -~ 4-c- ,-- 4- - - -- A -. 4-~ 1,-I4 -1,4.-~

Li L u± a;LifIUa&L_LY -Li I ~Uucui ~Y_L , C1LL LIIU, L1 aIil _L.L.iiL U. Lu Ii U U'LI W

smaller passenger cars and more efficient vehicle operation in general, the trafficgrowlulh ralue raust have been somXeiwIIO.at hitghuer.

30. The majority of ccUr,,iercial vehicles are o-wned by individuals, rather thanby corporate bodies. Public transport licenses are freely available, although theindu stry is subject .o GoverrnmieLt contLro'l i11 UWo _UIIportaLct -ways. In the first place,for coffee and cotton, which comprise the greatest volume of freight available toroad haulers, the state m,narketing organizations enforce rigid regulationrLs and ratestructures for transport to the nearest processing plant and/or rail-head. SecondJly,passenger transport by corxmnercial vehicles is restricted. The laAter has encouragedthe development of monopoly bus lines which maintain a higher standard of comforttharn large segments of the population appear to demand but which do not provideadequate service on secondary roads. The rapid development of a specialized roadtransport sector has been held back by overcapacity, due in part to the Seasonalnature of much of local road freight, and by the traditional preference of businessfirms for maintaining their own transport fleets, even if at higher cost. Recentincreases in import duties on equipment, and license and registration fees, haveraised the fixed charges for road transport and may give some stimulus to pubilcroad haulage, since higher fixed charges would tend to raise the costs of privategoods transport relative to public haulage where more intensive vehicle utilizationis possible.

The Road System

31. Compared with other tropical African countries, Uganda has a well

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developed road network. About 15.000 miles of roads are on government inventory.and there is an undetermined additional mileage of minor roads and tracks. Onlyabout 75O miles are bituminous naved: the rest of the system is gravel or earthsurfaced. The network has developed in a pattern of main arteries radiating fromKamnala toward cutlving areas. interconnected bv transversal trunlc roads (sooee Mn)-The main network adequately covers the national territory. Road density is suffi-cient and generallv follows the nattern of nonulation distribution.

32 There are several reasons for the develonment of this goond road net.work.First, an abundance of laterite subsoil, extending over most of the country, fur-nishes an excrellent and inexnpensive road1 surfacing material nid a generallv eqaibhle

distribution of rainfall over the year facilitates gravel road maintenance. Second,customary law has given the African taxpayer the choice between paying local taxesin cash or by community work; the latter has provided a labor force used primarilyfor road building. Third, the relatively short hauls _ithin the country constitu-ted a natural role for road transport that did not threaten the finances of therailways and +herefore the railways did not oppose road development - p11, above).

33. About 200 miles of new roads have been added to the network, and aboutlOO.nn le MI4 o-f -4stn - od 4av bee -upgrA1 -- ---aded4 -- -A in -aiu -eres - ic about 19C.L4 'J0I _L_L t J± e.AL J U uLov1Il, I 'JC.US i-ave UC,1 UJ A4.LLUC _Ll VC.!. LULA.0 LI't CtUUULU ±L7'J\,.

The mileage of roads registered for public maintenance, however, was increased bysomIe ILo percer.t tLo a presentu total of about 15,00 'Ie, Cenra Goverr4 -n reO 4JI , J) jJLL~1 ~ .jl~~I 'JU.L~ L OU U U L2 J.''I .lleCs. we'.'J ra.. 'L Go.Jvernment1i re-

sponsibility increased by 25 percent while the gazetting of local roads nearlyouUledu 'uhie forrIIal responsibiliUies of iocal goverriuenus. In most parts of hIIe

country, the condition of the roads has been allowed to run down. Periodic reseal-ing aniu reballastlng are lagginrg behinrd brte requirements, fu increasing traif ic anamaintenance allocations have not kept pace with the growjth of government responsi-bilities or increases in prices. The main road system is still reasonably service-able but, unless its deterioration is arrested, road transport costs will increasesharply and adversely affect development of traffic. The ivdssion urges that pro-grams be devised without delay for improving road maintenance.

34. The ilission believes that minor road improvement and maintenance deservesmore emphasis than it has received in the past. The minor road system ol the coun-try, under local government jurisdiction, while fairly dense in the more populatedareas of the country, is in the main poorly constructed and poorly maintained. Inhigh-productivity areas, a backlog of required minor road improvements has accumu-lated and a continuing deterioration has taken place for want of proper maintenance.In less-developed areas, minor road construction should constitute an integral partof specific agricultural schemes and general programs to increase productivity.

35. Central Government expenditures on the road network during 1961/62-65/66,including maintenance, construction and estimated administrative expenses havevaried between I1.4 million and f2.1 million, averaging about 11.7 million a year(see Table 2). This amount of expenditure appears low in relation to the require-ments of the road system, and suggests that a continual erosion of road assets istaking place.

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Table 2: CE!ITRAL GOVERN2EIT EXPEI\IDITURES ON ROADS, 1961/62-65/66(in I million)

Year Administration a/ Viaintenance Construction Total

15'61/62 0.3 0.7 1.0 2.01062/63 0.3 0.8 0.h 1.51963/64 0.3 0.7 0.4 i.41°64/65 0.3 0.8 0.8 1.9i(65/66 0.3 0.7 1.1 2.1

a/ i<ission estimate.

Road Administration

36. The 1LGW is divided into divisions according to its four principal func-tions: the Communications Division. the Roads. Bridges and Airf'ields Division, theHousing Division and the Water Supply Division. The Communications Division isconcerned tiith nolicv rplating to aviation. railways and other transport and corn-munication matters falling within the framework of EACSO through the hiinisterlsnprticinntion in the East, African interminiqtPriPl transnort. eommittee. The PnonrlsBridges and Airfields Division is responsible for the construction, improvement andm-aintearncn o£F thp nrimarv road svytem qnrd airfiPlds. T. is dviderd intro 1'ivp gao-

graphic sections with headquarters at Entebbe and four regional offices in theTorthern, Eastern, Western and Buganda Provinces. On paper, the headquarters ls

further divided into three subsections for planning, for general administration andbudgets And for coordination, the latter dealing with all operations related toforeign-financed highway development. However, because of understaffing, thishe. ad quarte r 0 'irL 6-a nization is not actually in effect.

37. * OAI. UtiLVeZ1 -UiL,'.UJ....LLY Li,> 1 f Uma. inta.inU.LIng1 tLhL pIi,y adLIU seconIUd.L,y ru

systern lies with the four regional sections of the MCW, while the responsibility oftlh- headquar,,ters c--nne, - --neral -olicy and buAget-r control. Ii-,-n+eannanceand improvement of the tertiary road system are the responsibility of local govern-mentLs uslng 4their own fund supplmente by-- grant fro th-cnra--+erame~~~ '.~ UlIZOLI .J lL .1. 00 0 yy iY' Li,>' 51 01 V110 4 VIIJ 11110 '-.IV.t 0JL U. VO 1±1110i11CU LI

nQ~~~~~~~~~s- L u mlir _ : - __ : -- _ : _ *3_:_ : -* L- - _. _U .. LUL1 'IIIti j:it:LULLVi jJ ' UU0I ±1'. L1 Lt,'l.dy diU1 ELLiLL, UIdU.lULI ub uib e ;'1L. J Ud)-_: Ut

qualified staff, lack of which imposes a major constraint on the maintenance andthe development of roads. Eight engineering positions in headquarters plus: fourregional engineer posts, provided in the present Government establishment, areclearly insufficient to operate properly the highway system and, in an.y event,half of the headquarters positions are unfilled. In the late 1S50's and early19 600s, there were over 40 roads department engineers in Govermnent service. Thisreduced staff, the cumulative result of the progressive departure of expatriateprofessionals, cannot properly carry out the duties of the RToads Division. eniaethe Government expresses concern over the staff shortage, no systematic measuresfor dealing with it have yet been taken, and the Mlission urges suitable prcmptaction. The Roads Division's present establishment should be doubled, and its

- 12 -

present strength tripled, by establishing and filling at least 25 engineering posi-tions. Since the supply of qualified nationals is presently inadequate and it willtake time before there are sufficient numbers of qualified nationals to take overfully the duties of highway administration, the Roads Division will have in themeantime to continue to rely upon the employment of foreign nationals, even thoughit is Government policy to fill administrative positions with Ugandan nationals.There is still a nucleus of expatriates in the Division with local experience andthe Mission feels it important that this experience be preserved and systematicallytransmitted to new staff. The Mission recommends that the Government initiate re-cruitment campaigns immediately to obtain additional staff, to revise the Govern-ment salary structure so as to attract and retain competent personnel and to devisea scheme for the professional education of nationals for future road administrationpositions. The Mission recommends that concerted effort be made by foreign coun-tries and external agencies interested in Uganda's transport development to meet themost urgent personnel requirements.

39. The MCW has in the past employed survey firms to locate, survey and de-sign road alignments while departmental staff did soil surveys, bridge design andnreparaqtion nf -,nPrif!i;,qtAionn. and cnnt±rnnt. dcnnrmmnt.q. ThisA nra(-tine rvInI lts.q ina lack of coordination leading to serious errors in design, long delays and sub-stantial increases in construction c zsts over designc estimates. The MCW also usesits own forces to supervise construction iihich, in view of staffing limitations,hampers effective implementation. The Missinn therefore hbelieves that ennnultnntsshould be used for the design and supervision of those construction projects en-taqiling majon r wo rks.

10. in , W 'H' +he rc R-rads Brld tacnd rir rfields Dnision, functions ar.dr r-

bilities are loosely defined and much of the energies of the reduced staff are dis-slpaed n dulicting9utes.In the ------ road -d.nsraio e-csth

country's political structure and is highly fragmented. The Mission believes that,in vieT.w of the weaknesses in lonal government plar.nnng and budgeta Jr control, thecentral Road Division should have responsibility for a wider network of roads,whdiile extending its 4dv sory assstc to, loa -Pele i h lnigo

road development and maintenance. The MCW has proposed to the Government that adetlail-edI survey ofIL th1,e exi;s+ting-- 4-1 roa netor be 4 unerc ken by 4a team of cosl-_14ue d~t.. U4 .± UL _L./ ~L n 0 LI .L 'd. ne~ Uvo'.JJ Xi uc; U11U,u.L taken~i L/J' ci U %L11 UL'4 L IIOUI. U,-

ants, which would, among other equally important tasks (see paragraphs hl and 46,UbeLJo,V/ apprais lts cniUO U'JLLUJ UJLLLLL funionLIaL cl,0a00J±atiuLv wIiu LaL view 0 VJ toeL recom,-

mending a proper division of administrative and maintenance responsibilities be-,Ween1 IAIU Utfe cntral andU LUoTlon fully sujpports t,eC Iiins, Iy

view that this analysis is required.

Road Maintenance

41. Maintenance expenditures of both central and local government roads in1965/66 are estimated at about Ei.i miiiion, oI wnicn about E750,000 was spent onthe main and secondary roads under central Government juriediction. Maintenanceexpenditures have consistently fallen below budget allocations, partly due totardy release of funds by the Treasury. This level of maintenance expenditure isclearly below that required. In 1966/67, the allocation for maintenance was raisedto E900,000, plus an additional E500,000 for backlogs in periodic maintenance. TheRoads Division has estimated on a very preliminary basis, that more than 13.0million should be spent annually on the entire road system, including day-to-dayand periodic maintenance. The Mission believes that these estimates may be high,butthatthey suggest the magnitude of the present shortfall in expenditure.Pending the

- 13 -

detailedinvestigation,which we recommend as part of the proposed highway survey(seeparagraph4o),the Mission suggests that the Government.-allocate:cabout i.5 millionformaintenance in 1967/68together with perhaps 1300.000 for continuatiori of the~rrantenanceprogram of resealing and reballasting that has been deferred in the past.Given new construction and growing traffic loads, the 1,ission estimates that about11.5 million (at 1966 prices) would be required for day-to-day and periodic main-tenance of the roads now under central Goverrment jurisdiction by the end of thePlan period. The Mdission has made no attempt to estimate the budgetary require-ments for maintaining the roads under loc2l government iurisdiction. but -it isclear that the present expenditure of about 130 per mile is far below whalt is need-ed. narticularlv on thosp narts of thp te.rtiarv netwsrlk carrying conqiderhle traf-fic.

42. Road maintenance is partly mechanized, although a substantial share isleft to. labor. Miechanical equipment is distributed between the Roads Division andthe local governments. The Mdission believes that the development of road transportin TTcrondn hna rechd +he stnge when more cnsi era,n+inon chold be gj-en t, increns

ing the role of equipment in maintenance operations and we recommend an investiga-tio-n ofl thIe poss ;ib;lit of achvin more Iflln rlnaemn of- roa plant by - - -'-. - - -

pooling central and local government equipment under a single and financially self-supporting16 CaGgenMcy.

R oad Ctonst 4-rue' 4ion

±LU.U ThU llere are a grea,t± varieJy1 I r sdards in U8ildUi reflecting various

stages of road development. Nhile the larger portion of the network retains therough layouts typical ol the empirical irieuxhud6 o cUsur-uLULUn lUloutweU earlIer,the trend now is to upgrade and to build roads with engineered standards of align-ment and surfacing consistent with the prevailing higher traffic volumes.

44. Since the inception of the First Five-Year Development Plan, it has beenfound necessary to revise road construction cost estimates upwards by roughly 70percent. The increase is partly due to rising costs of labor, materials andmanagement, but primarily to the need for higher standards of design over thoseoriginally contemplated and faulty cost estimation in the past. Typical construc-tion cost figures used in present estimates vary from 114,000 to 128,0CO Fer milefor bituminous paved roads and 85,000 to 118,000 for gravel surfaced roads, accord-ing to terrain and the standard of the existing facility. The foreign exchangecost of road works is estimated roughly at 65-70 percent of total costs, includingdepreciation of equipment, imported materials, fuels, spare parts and the foreigncosts of contractor and engineering services.

45. The construction industry in East Africa, which operates in all threecountries, primarily consists of branches or subsidiaries of large European firms.In view of the large amount of construction under way and planned in East Africa,which will absorb most of the capacity of the present firms, further works shouldbe offered in large enough contracts to attract outside bidders and thus keepprices at a reasonable level. Small contracts such as for culverts, short spanbridges and other labor-intensive works are taken up by small local firms whichare mostly Asian-owned. There are as yet no African firms in the road constructionbusiness in East Africa except for haulers and truckers who obtain small contractsfor delivering gravel and murram. Present construction and contract awarding

Dractices are aDpronriate to attract foreign contractors and to make available tothe country on a competitive basis the construction capacity required for a reason-able level of investment.

Pl_nninn' Roand TnvP.tments.

+6. The road prog,ram has been develope nove a period of years on the basisof the Roads Division's familiarity with local technical needs and in general,

+~~ ~~ ~ A n -n i _h nncari _ n z I _ nirlA11n HA95r; lt A Tr rT.T .f _ nrn I Q I A n -,, +A n-29nAA9e{]Z

the other hand, economic criteria are often ignored. I,here priorities have beenenstaoblished, they often apnear too hare been -r-luinnnnAby the Jnterest of forignlenders in particular projects or by local political considerations. Feasibilitystudies have been made for only a few of the =,erous road proposalsg ,f4n wtfaulty cost inputs. In any case, apart from feasibility studies of individualproject-- an -- pr4-4-- - -nF' -or4i-ti +4 be established on

basis. The transport planning unit, which the Mission recommends be establishedwi th1iLn tihe IIUJ sul d J ILJU.LU u.rgtl-,1Uy add.-LU±ress it0±seLf tU the es110 UaUWISUlIJenLU ofJ s5UoIUn,

practical criteria for assessing the timing and extent of justified road improve-ments, based on the real costs of maintenance, construction, and vehicle operation,and the transport requirements of the country. The highway study, which the ACWproposed to undertake with the help of cons-ultants (see paragraph 40), should in-clude a careful estimate of road costs, and should devise a system for the datacollection, storage and analysis which the planning unit would require. The I-I,UTtransport planning unit should also extend planning assistance to local govern-ments to ensure adequate emphasis on maintenance, improvement and construction ofminor roads. The unit could also be the main channel for coordinating rural roadplanning with projects of the Ministry of Agriculture.

A Road Program

47. The lMlission has reviewed the status and probable costs of the road pro-gram and assessed the capacity of the Division of Roads. Bridges and Airfields toplan and implement road works. On the basis of this review, the Mission has at-tempted to compose a road program that under certain assumptions would appear real-istic over the Plan period, carrying over into subsequent years. The road projectslisted in Part I of Table 3 are those which have been prepared beyond the stage offeasibility analysis (though some have not been subject to feasibility studies) tothe design or construction stages, and the Mission has attempted to phase expendi-tures on them in relation to their likely rate of implementation. M4any projectsnow being designed will have to be reassessed in the light of better cost estimatesand revised expectations as to benefits that would accrue. In connection w.ithroute selection for major projects, economic analysis is required prior to comple-tion of detailed engineering. In the general absence of economic criteria, theIlission has been forced to establish its own rough order of priorities - an orderwhich might have to be readjusted in the light of the recommended improved plan-ning studies after they have been completed.

48. Part II of Table 3 indicates possible additional investments that couldbe made toward the end of the Plan and thereafter, and, in general, reflects theMission's view of the subsequent direction road development in Uganda should take.W1hether in fact Part II projects can be undertaken during the Plan period will de-pend - as indeed will the effective implementation of even all of the Part I

Table 3: MIfSSION'S TENTATICVE PRO JECTION OP CENT'RAL GOVItRNIENT RZOAD INVESTMENT,1966/67 - 1970/72

(in ! thousa nd)

Festeacted Previous Plusb Period Icesitted a) 70artedP'Lan)I.PrDjects Prepared or~ uoder Total Present Lopend- T517fl_977I_1 7_7T 3 T _ 1970/ Subsequent or, being b) negotiating

Active Preparation Cost Status iture 1567 1L968 1969 1970 1971 Expenditure lonsidefed c) seeking_A. Trenk Reads

101 Bopo-Adjseani and FerrYInP-onemeta 980 design 19657 6 -- - - 50 150 780 -(c)

10ll uI.ira...rti 1,350 ) firncue oossdttnd ) - (- - - 150 1,200106 Gsiu-Wdbalenzi 3,200D thosgh problens of 3 8 (1-50 250 300 500 7,100 )',8,%I UK (a)107 Lir-Jalber 7,80 3 rote sod Justifi.ation, 3 - - - 150 630

11 Iganga - taile 1,2?30 route nete1ntiooidesig,n 1967 3 0 c 200 500 530 -*IDA Log. (bID137 Rh...rar - Katung~u 1,900 design 19657 25 60 L520 660 715 - - 1,33ID )None Kabale - Ntungamo 1,990 tender 19657 16 150o 600 700 525 - - 1,1560 -Ger,,any (a)152 Masaka - gyctera - Mtutkla 1,015 design 1957 12 * a 250 500 295 -cIDA Log. (a)

13 Bkoloto - Bulassagi 75den ig. 1967 7 a a 350 218 - -*IDA Eog. (lb)1)1 Sezibas Isoep CrOusing 115 design 1907 - * * 9 25 - *Eaog(sID155 Gapaza - Nagalama 230 design 1967 4. 5 10 100 120 TD IA Log. lb)gone Pakach Rcad/ Rail Bridge a/ 600 teoder 1967 - 60 00 lIl - - ---None Rood Equipment 1.66 - 3C0 :L66 - -166 UK (a)None Ka-paia. Urban Streets 300o ,ontrao'tor finance 150 ISo-5- - - Contractor (a)

Detailed deeign works an sterinked rds. 88 underway 5:6 32 62 IDA (A)Total TracIk R.ad 1478i0 -77 Tri 1710! TIM1 "17F 77877 n7715 5787B. Secondary & Minsr Beada

101A la-opi - Obengi 690 design 1968 7 30 660-()La)1 BH.mkunga A.coee 2)1 -2 Ii blIJ2 Kahendero Access ) 33 designed 2 - - - 3 ,2 D A31.3 Kisenyi AnceseLa47 Kigeci Tea Roads 4.03 deetgn 19,67 - a 10 200 193 - -*IDAk Log. (b)li4 D Ankole Qutgmrawr Circuit 2?88 densig,n 1957 - (1 200 78 - IDA Eog. (b)1a9 Hims - Linyantale - Mironge 58 denign 1967 - a - 58 - - .IRSk Log. (b)15o Kagorogore - Hakibale 1.6 design 1967 - a 20 26 - - -. III Log. ~n)None Dikuni W barseko - Farms. :119 suderuay 91 21. 11. - - - -,22 bJ Germ,any1651 Kaynoga - Dale 173 design 1967 8 * 80 70 - - -. aIDA Log. (b)152 Gairyay Complex 1.6 design 1967 3 * - 26 20 - ]I* m LEg. (A)1653 Ka1unga - Duncas - R. Ni-le, :15 design 1967 3 * 55 50 IDA-0 01 Log. (A) ,I5W Mityarca - Kalangalo 11i5 design 1967 - *55 0 - .5IDA Log. (a) ~liSy DBsana Nazeign 46 designb 1967 3 * 40 - - - IDA Lng. (b)5aee Dusoga A.enes Reads :172 des.igned 8 - - 64. 100 - Dk Log. (b)BNIDe Kyaresozi - Kijora - Mik.oya 51.9 designed 3 .- - - 1.6 100 -.- ce)Nosee Eqaipsent 100 - - Ito - - - - (a C)

Detailed design on asterisked sec. ran. 118 underwy 50 68 - .82 iak Cb)Total Secondary & Miner Beads T757! 520 LU)T 517 08 58! 23 3

Total, Fart I 17,!520 011. 018 1.9 In .1.,59 3,J)15 2.125 5.37(3 6.386

II.Possible additions daringthe Plan period

A. Trunk Beads

Construction Ponsibilitiesn6:KabaTe--Bsad.SBorder feasibility. - - 60Paklchc-Arsa ) studiesEntebbe-K&,,psla 3requiredSpeed-up projeots in Part I

Feasibility Studies and design 85 35 65 125

S. Bridges Program f-seikility 3- - 50 350studies requ.iredC. Secondary & Minor Roads

Pe,osibility Studhce and Denigo 1.5 o.0 •1 (Constru tions 100i 500

Total, Port IIl 80 75 265 1.625

GRAND TOTAL 1,068 2,1079 3,531. 3,680 3,750

a! Pinancing tc be sh-red equally by G-cerone-i and FkRiB; figure rerreneots Uganda Gco-ment hbor.

b/ Reaining to, be dieb-red.

- 16 -

projects - on the suitable strengthening of ITCW and its Roads Division which wehave discussed.

Financing the Road Program

49. Table 4 indicates the annual phasing of disbursements of foreign assist-ance, already committed or under negotiation, and the local funds accordingly re-quired. Once cost estimates are firm and the projects are properly assessed, ad-ditional parts of the program,l will become eligible for consideration for foreignassistance. If foreign financing wiere limited to covering the estimated foreign

LId~L5 ~ UiIIJuLIiiL, U hL 11Se al1U_U±LULLId.L jJJiUJtz1,U 1.UjU, ULM- iikkiCL1U_Ldi LJUL'UtLi OJi UliIexclang-e con,ponent of thseaddtoaArjc css4h4iacilbre ntGovernment would rise steeDly from the annual level of about E350,000 during 1964/u6-6)U/u to over Ifl.U IilWL±lion annuallJ-y in the latter years of the Plian period. Inaddition to capital expenditures, the Government's expenditures on road maintenanceand administration should be irncreased substantially from a past annual ievel ofabout fl.O million to f2.3 million toward the end of the Plan period. The totallocal financial requirement for the Pian period wouid thus amount to about L15.2million, rising from about E2.0 million in 1966/67 to about E3.5 million in thelast year of the Plan, 1t70/71. Availability of the necessary local funds mayprove to be a major constraint on road development expenditure since maintenanceshould generally have the prior claim on those funds. Therefore, we recommend thata significant proportion of even the local expenditures be financed by externalaid agencies.

50. Total annual road expenditures by the central Goverrment would risesharply from an average annual level of 11.7 million during 1961/62-65/66 to anaverage annual level of f5.0 million during the Plan period. Road expenditures arefinanced from the general budget. Central Government taxation of the road user,consisting of import duties on road transport equipment and fuels, consumptiontaxes on fuels and license and registration fees, amounted to roughly 118.5 millionduring 19/61/62-65/66, as compared to total central Gcvc-rrment road expenditures ofabout f8.5 million. Taxes on fuels and other imports have been progressively andsubstantially raised in recent years3 annual road-user taxation receipts doubledfrom 1S'61/62 to 19,65/66 and amounted to an estimated f4.6 million in the latterfiscal year. Uihile it is not clear what portion of these receipts should be con-sidered as charges on the road user to cover the costs to the Government of pro-viding and maintaining the roads, the i'iission recommends caution in further taxincreases aimed specifically at the road transport sector, pending the outcome ofthe present studies as to highway costs and appropriate policies regarding trans-port coordination.

Project Identification

51. A number of road proiects listed in Part I of Table 3 do not have firmforeign financing for their construction, but will be ready for construction dur-ing the Plan Deriod- manv of these projects will require further assessment, inlight of the cost estimates obtained by detailed engineering studies. In addition,some route selectionq. nqrt,iclpnr1v in nonnPetJion with th,-. Tencn;)_T4ihhl ronri_ wrilI

require an economic assessment of alternatives. Included in Part I are two proj-ects which have been designed departmentally anrd nnpear -orthy of further study.First, the Eoyo-Adjumani road and ferry improvement project would improve the linkbetween the developing cotton growing area of northern West Nile with the ginnery

U G A N D A

TOTAL ROAD EXPENDITURE AND FINANCINC3 (Central Government)

E millions

Actual Actual P L A h^ P E R I 0 DT964/6 196s;7266;/f77 1W7/6d -_1i96M,/69 _1qVq77ff- ;7o7i7

' :pDit- 1' c- 'ea<3iturce .80 1.17 1.02 2.08 3.,3 :3.68 3.75a- -(1.97)

Foreign Assistance a - 1.25 - .75 1.,17 1.28 1L.23 .80Local Finance Required a .72 - ,27 .91 2.2 2; 5 2. 95Possible Additional Foreign Assistance - - .20 1.]18 :L.4o 1.'30Local Requirement with Additional Assistance .27 .71 1.07 1L.o5 1.o5

Estimated Foreign Exchange Component b/ . .72 .71 1.41 2.60 2.50 2. 4P ~~~~~~1.26)

ecurrart 5xroxnditiare 1.01 1.05 1.70 2.25 2.'35 2.30 2.1h5

Ma:intenance c/ .79 .75 .90 160 1.70 :L.8o 1.90Deferred Miaintenance - - .5C0W .30 .20Administration (Estimated) .30 .30 .30 .45 45 .50 55

Estimated Foreign Exchange Component b/ .40 .41 .68 .90 .'5 .92 . 98

TOrTAL ROAD EXPENDITURE 1.81 2.22 2.72 4.33 5.88 5.98 6.20

Foreign Assistance including Additional -_ 1.25 - .75 1.37 2. 46 2.63 2.'70Local Requirement - 2.78 - 1.97' 2.96 3. 42 '3.35 3.50

a/ Committed or under negotiation; annual figures represent disbursement according to progress of execution,.b/ Includes some indirect foreign exchange costs.c/ Future expesnditure estimates based on present Central Government road responsibilities ancl 1966 prices.c/ Budget figure - may not be achieved.

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at AA4umari, w1h-le recent t4raff±-c conson 'AJL road are low, the MissinL1 fls

that transport improvements may be required to meet effectively future traffic de-manu. Second, U11he VUongi-.LJd.IJjJ.L road -Ls d. iIld.JV.J .1. 1 UV U11f to 1Vth Myof-lJUiIlC2 I UdU.,

serving the high potential area along the west bank of the River Nile. These twoproJe;U, uIUiU be 11 assU11JUsLULU1d VJL ,11 nLUUwith.L LL UgVlurl ULt=11U potentials

and programs.

52. Three trunk road possibilities are mentioned in Part II of Table 3.First, impro ve mei i ol. the naba±e- .wwiu border roau, if accom-leu b-y [imp- -v1em1eUto the road from Kigali, Rwanda, would provide Rwanda with a new and apparentlymuch better route to the sea via Uganuda and tle East African Railways; trunk traf-fic over the existing very poor road is at present growing rapidly due to Rwanda'spoor political relations with Burundi which is astride the country:s traditionalaccess to the sea. The proposed road would be built through the mountains andswampy gorges that mark the Rwanda-Uganda border and would entail heavy expendi-tures. Uganda would benefit substantially from the transit traffic and tradewith Rwanda that would ensue. The economics from Rwanda's point of view wouldhave to be investigated in some detail, although it is clear that the country re-quires better access to the sea.

53. The second possible trunk road project would entail improvement and re-alignment of the Pakwach-Arua road,-now an unimproved all-weather route, and wouldextend the trunk system into West Nile District. The area is developing fairlyrapidly and construction of the rail/road bridge at Pakwach may considerably boosttraffic on the present road. Study of this road possibility is also required inconnection with proposals to extend the rail system to Arua, to avoid the dupli-cation that is currently envisaged and to select the appropriate modal solution.

54. The third is the Entebbe-Kampala road (31 miles) where capacity willprobably have to be expanded. Present traffic on the .road, though mostly passengercars, amounts to about 2,000 vehicles per day. The existing road is poorlyaligned, with inadequate sight and stopping distances during peak traffic periods.INhether augmented capacity should be achieved by building a parallel roadway orby other means, including possible reconstruction of the existing road, needsanalysis. The Mission has included this road project as a possibility for ad-ditional road investment toward the end of the Plan period.

55. The Government has listed the technical bridging needs of the main andsecondary road system. The resulting bridge program includes replacement and con-struction of minor bridges and the construction of a few major bridges scatteredthroughout the country, Further study could probably produce a project of higheconomic justification in terms of maintenance and travel distance savings. Thereare also a great number of feeder road possibilities included in the Govermment'slist of road projects, some of which have been studied for feasibility, althoughwith q1uestionable cost assumptions. Road improvements in the Mount Elgon areaand along the northern fringes of Lake Kyoga appear worthy of review.

C. Airports

56. The planning and provision of civil aviation services, to meet both localnn r international rpnuirements. are done for the Past African region as a whole bv

the Directorate of Civil Aviation and the East African Meteorological Departmentwhir-h unrler the new Treatv for Eat Afric2n fpnnnrntion arp ton hp. Ira1v

- 19 -

decentralized under officers designated for each partner state. The East AfricanAirways Corporation is the national carrier for all three countries and providesscheduled services within and among them and overseas. Under the new Treaty theCorporation and its Board of Directors are to look for general policy guidanceand for approval of annual programs, alterations in tariffs, maior investmentprojects and major changes in salary structure to the Community's MinisterialCounnil whie-h reonsists of. the thrpe nprmanent East African Ministers and the Com-munications Minister of each partner state.

57. The planning, construction and maintenance of airports is the respon-sibility of the individual states, though inevitably influenced by the decisions ofthe EACSO organizations as to air services. The Roads, Bridges and Airfields Divi-sion of +he M-nicst.r'r nf G.ommunict'.iorns, Wnrlvks annrd iousingp adminiistepfrs andr maintaiins

twelve airports or airfields in Uganda, of which two have asphalt runways (Entebbeand rulu', one g7V'nTraveH-rl (Jiin) ndirl +hn remain,iinge nine hanver grras s+t-ricp T'n+ hi.)c is

the major airport, handling international traffic. The remainder serve only inter-na l ; iht icun f 1 As';Xl -+P A .+h rT V nc " TPn iAh A'AA; -r T^;7rQA1-On;

also responsible for provision of crash, rescue and firefighting facilities, themanagement of the air terminal Tfa.cilte at Entebbe and the collecton of l-aAdingfees.

58. There is no separate accounting for airport current receipts and expendi-tu 4. SinCe AO1. 4Aceit fl w ± _;A+o Ath_ Tr- -AAo_ and a-" r mJanAL Lu. 1 A AAA aloa. eA

from the central budget. Receipts are far greater than current expenditures; inI965/66 total ai_4-t mai4-nnc and aAM4n 4strat4i-- en-144-es amonte 'I -lessL7uJ.W LJiJ, LU UtaL ai..jJiJI U LJC_.iia±iUL1I1L.It: C kIiL ~U IL L± U. UI.LULI1 U&JVeI%.AL ULU O L1IPI%UIU L _A~L UIJ _L:0

than 130,000 while receipts from landing and parking fees, aircraft cleaning andportuerage a,mounted ^o abutz 157 ,000.

pui- UeLd n -d[IIU II UU LU L)U rU M4 4 4 .-) 4.-I - __UXIUe:4

59. During ±961/U2-15)/6U , LtUota UcJ.tLL eAte&JJe snLLLUI± 1L di}L.JUJU faciLiLUts

amounted to about 1895,000 of which most, 1600,000, was spent in 1564/65 and 1965/66on expansion of- lAlhe airport facilities aU Gulu and asphaltinlg the run-way to Imeet

combined military and civil needs. Less than 14,000 was spent on the airportsother than Entebbe and Gulu.

60. Planned investment during the Plan period consists almost entirely of onemajor project, at Entebbe, to extend the runway, construct new terminal facilitiesand improve navigational and meteorological equipment to meet the needs of growinginternational traffic and larger modem aircraft. The Government has given. rela-tively detailed consideration to the proposed project, wnich, including improvedlocal approach roads in Entebbe, is estimated to cost about C2.6 million.

61. The number of passengers embarked and landed at Entebbe more than doubledduring the period E9xO-65. Existing terminal and baggage haidling facilities areinadequate for the present throughput of passengers and is aggravated by a rapidlygrowing in-transit passenger volume. The Government believes that expansion ofpresent terminal facilities will not meet future needs and that a larger wholly newterminal complex is required. The layout of the existing terminal is such that itsexpansion cannot be so devised as to achieve a required standard of operating effi-ciency. Furthermore, future expansion of aprons and runways would probably entaila resiting of terminal facilities in the medium term. The management of the air-port is generally quite efficient, in the face of the physical problems imposed byspace limitations. The need for approach roads for the enlarged airport is apoar-ently dictated by the planned extension of the runway across present access, and

- 20 -

growing traffic through the winding lanes of Entebbe Town. Extension of the mainrunway from its present length of 9,975 feet by 800 feet appears necessary to meetfhe npeers of large qir'raft Alternative sites have been investigated for an inter-national airport nearer Kampala. The Government estimates that the most suitablealternntive site would cost about E17 million due to topographical and approachproblems; such a cost is unlikely to be economically justified for many years tocomes

62. Phasing o-fr the qirnort- investment. at Fntehhe has already slinnped sub-stantially due to lack of detailed planning. Relatively minor investments inequipment and apron facilities will be made in l966/67. Tn the Mission'S view, theproject could not be completed during the Plan period since detailed planning anddesitpo are re;quired behfrore -Subhsn+.tnl invp.efmpnts rcan bh madep andr the Minis;tryl'technical and administrative capacity is limited. Of the 12.6 million included inthe Plan for the i.tebbe A-rn-t,. +.he Mistsin hellievesu that+. only abou half' islikely to be usefully spent during the period.

63. The Mission also believes a sound case for investment at the lesser air-fields in th.e count.ry could be made. Jinjan Airnort appears to bn inaddequante forPrIpresent and future needs; consideration of an airfield at Mbale seems appropriate,

and 4- lumnizat-ion of some othI-er airIfield-s especially in wetl. ganda- to ha.dn-leanLU LJ..L LUmU.L±.L- 4 WJ.UI O/l i110 s . ~ 0jJLSO-.JJ s C S+eM TT

Friendship aircraft - the mainstay of East African Ainrays (EAA) internal services-4-Jn4- I-ih be n, reuie smnn, depending +kuo tfe devePlA OfA - -ne ,r,A +1,a

growth of tourist traffic by air. In connection with the latter,consideraticnSI01 )U..L.J LJJ kt _.1. VO- -LA) 44a-CL 1 0 0 sa it ftO..L± O i011 -- V

0V.LI.Lk, +0± .±..1f1-..- 4--. 1-

called upon to receive an increasing traffic in chartered light aircraft (see An-nlex tV 'U\.

I -v- u,.14. 1Te 'ission estmates that ivtmn U[IIiLi on a-l- adirii-±elds couldrise from about E150,000 in 1966/67 to more than Eh00,000 in 1970/71, for a totalduring the Plan period of about E 1.5 mlllon.

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