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WORLD CRISIS OF 2008 AND ITS ECONOMIC, SOCIAL AND GEOPOLITICAL CONSEQUENCES

Fernando Alcoforado1

ABSTRACT

This article aims to identify the causes of the global economic and financial crisis of 2008, tracing the economic and social scenarios and global geopolitical changes resulting from the crisis. The methodology consisted in the analysis of publications related to the global economic and financial crisis and its consequences. The result of the studies indicated that the global economic and financial crisis of 2008 will be prolonged and that it may result in the advent of a new world order, the decline of the US and the rise of China as a major economic power in the world.

Keywords: Origins of the economic and financial crisis of 2008. Scenarios of the world economy. Scenarios in the social world. Geopolitical changes in the future.

1. Origins of the global economic and financial crisis of 2008

In early August 2008, a financial crisis arose in the mortgage lending industry in the United States who immediately spread to other parts of the world financial system, with rapidity and amplitude that surprised the market. According to Gillian Tett2 (2009), the major Western banks threw the world into a recession. The Bank of England said that the losses of the banks that had to adjust their investments to market prices are US$ 3 trillion, equivalent to about a year of economic production in the United Kingdom. The Asian Development Bank, in turn, estimated that financial assets worldwide may have been dropped by 2009 to more than US$ 50 trillion - a number equivalent to the total annual production.

According Gillian Tett (2009)

the current crisis is a product of changes that are taking root in the West silently for several years. Half a century ago, the banking appeared to be a relatively simple art. When commercial

1 Fernando Alcoforado , member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor of Territorial Planning and Regional Development from the University of Barcelona, a university professor and consultant in strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is the author of Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona, http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development-The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Muller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (P&A Gráfica e Editora, Salvador, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011) and Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), among others. 2 Gillian Tett, PhD in social anthropology from the University of Cambridge, is assistant editor of the Financial Times where does the global coverage of financial markets.

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banks extended loans, they typically kept those operations within their own accounting systems - and used rudimentary calculations (combined with information about their customers) when deciding whether to lend or not. However, from the seventies onwards, two revolutions occurred: banks started to sell their credit risk to other investors in the prosperous capital markets and adopted complex computer-based systems to measure credit risk that were often imported from sector of pure science - and prepared by luminaries of statistics, as Den Braber of RBS.

Not only the financial system is embittering damage on a scale that no one ever predicted, but the pillars of faith on which the new financial capitalism was also built virtually collapsed. This made all of the finance ministers to central bankers, from retail investors to pensioners, stay devoid of an intellectual compass, bewildered and confused. "Our world is broken - and I honestly do not know what will replace it The compass by which we conducted the United States disappeared", says Bernie Sucher, head of Moscow operations at Merrill Lynch. "The last time I saw something like that in terms of sense of disorientation and loss, was among my friends in Russia when the Soviet Union collapsed".

Until the summer of 2007, the majority of investors, bankers and governments believed that these revolutions represented "progress" real that benefiting the economy as a whole. Regulators loved the fact that banks are expanding credit exposures, since crises such as savings and loans in the United States, in the eighties, showed the dangers of banks being exposed to a concentrated loan type. "The dispersion of credit risk helped to make more resistant banking and financial system", proclaimed in April 2006 the International Monetary Fund (IMF), expressing a widespread western belief.

As innovation in the financial sector has become more intense, she also began to be permeated with a terrible irony. In public, the financial experts at the forefront of the revolution depicted the changes as measures that would promote a superior form of free market capitalism. When a JPMorgan team created credit derivatives in the 1990s (a contract set between two parties which define future payments based on the price behavior of a market asset, usually the calls "commodities"), a favorite keyword in their market literature was the claim that these derivatives would promote "market completeness" - or more perfect free markets.

In July 2007, the blind faith began to suffer cracks. In the United States defaults began to increase in the mortgage industry "subprime" which is a credit risk, granted to a borrower that does not offer sufficient guarantees to benefit from the more advantageous interest rate (prime rate) or to designate a form of mortgage for real estate intended to borrowers presenting the highest risk. This mortgage was to guarantee the borrower's residence and was often coupled to the issuance of credit cards or car rentals. Agencies such as Standard & Poor's reduced product classifications linked to mortgages and admitted that their mathematical models were presenting defects.

But when the default rates of the "subprime" rose, accountants demanded that banks revalue the instruments used. By the spring of 2008, Citi, Merrill and UBS had collectively embittered a loss of US$ 53 billion. Gillian Tett (2009) states that banks tried to plug this hole with obtaining more than US$ 200 billion in new capital. But the hole continued to increase. As a result, faith in the ability of regulators to monitor banks collapsed. Faith in banks also ended. Then, when the mathematical models lost credibility, investors disregarded all forms of complex finance.

In September 2008, the last pillar of faith came down. Most investors admitted that the United States government would never let a large financial group fail. But when Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, distrust and bewilderment increased exponentially. Most credit markets collapsed. The prices went crazy. Banks and asset analysts found that all your financial models fragmented up. "In the capital markets, nothing worked", said principal analyst risk of a large West Bank. As noted a few weeks later Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England, "the system was on the precipice".

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According Gillian Tett (2009)

while currently seeking new pillars of trust for finance, governments are stepping in to replace many functions of the market. The United States Treasury is conducting "stress tests" on the banks, in order to increase investor confidence. In the United Kingdom the government is providing to banks guarantees against the "toxic" assets. Banks and credit agencies are - belatedly - revamping their models. Companies in the financial sector and regulators also promised to make industry more transparent and standardized.

Gillian Tett (2009) asks how the world get here?

A large part of the answer is that the era of liberalization contained the seeds of its own downfall: this was also a period of huge growth in the scale and profitability of the financial sector, of frenetic financial innovation, of growing global macroeconomic imbalances, high indebtedness of households and bubbles of asset price, ie, a deviation from the fair price or an exaggeration on the part of investors who would be willing to acquire assets for prices inconsistent with the cash flow that these assets generate promise. By intervening to keep their exchange rates low and accumulate foreign currency reserves, governments of emerging economies generated huge current account surpluses, which recycled along with private capital inflows in official capital outflows. Between the late 90s and the peak in July 2008, only the currency reserves of emerging countries grew by US$ 5.3 trillion.

These huge flows of capital, added to the traditional surpluses of several rich countries and growing surpluses of oil exporters, ended up largely in a small number of rich countries and particularly in the United States. At the peak, United States absorbed about 70% of the surplus spared of the rest of the world. Meanwhile, within the United States, the debt ratio of households to GDP rose from 66% in 1997 to 100% a decade later. Even bigger jumps in indebtedness of households occurred in the United Kingdom. These increases in the debt of households were supported, in turn, by highly elastic and innovative financial systems and, in the United States, by government programs.

Gillian Tett (2009) states that

we are witnessing the financial crisis deeper, large and dangerous since the 1930s. As Reinhart and Rogoff argue in other work, "banking crises are associated with profound declines in output and employment". This is due in part to the balance sheets extended beyond the limit: in the United States, the overall debt hit a record peak of just under 350% of GDP - 85% of it private. This compared to just over 160% in 1980. Among the possible results of this shock are immense and prolonged fiscal deficits in countries with large external deficits, as they try to maintain demand, a prolonged global recession, a brutal adjustment of the global balance of payments, a dollar collapse, high inflation and protectionism. The transformation is sure to be deeper in the financial sector.

According Gillian Tett (2009), the bright new financial system - for all its talented participants, for all its rich rewards - has failed in the market test. In a recent study, Andrew Haldane, executive director for financial stability of the Bank of England, shows how little banks understood the risks that are supposed to administer. He attributed these failures to "disaster myopia" (the tendency to underestimate risks), a lack of awareness of "network externalities" (contamination from one institution to others) and "misaligned incentives" (the positive side for the employees and the negative side to shareholders and taxpayers).

Gillian Tett (2009) also states that

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after the crisis, we certainly "we will see a less proud financial sector". Markets will impose a brutal discipline, even if temporary. Government regulation also hardens. Less clear is whether policymakers will contemplate structural solutions with a separation of commercial banking system of bank investment system or a forced reduction in the size and complexity of institutions deemed too big or too interconnected to fail. You can also imagine a return of much of the banking to the domestic market, as governments increasingly impose their rules. In this case, there would be a "de-globalization".

Another conclusion of Gillian Tett (2009) is that the financial collapse would trigger a global industrial slowdown. It also is spreading across significant sector of the real economy, much of which is crying out for assistance and that the search for security will strengthen political control over markets. A shift in policy focus means a change to the national and far from global. This is already evident in finance. It is also seen in the determination to rescue national producers. But protectionist intervention is likely to extend far beyond the cases seen so far that is just the beginning.

Paul Krugman3 (2009) states that,

the fact is that recent economic numbers are scary, not just in America but around the world. The manufacturing sector, in particular, is collapsing everywhere. Banks are not lending, companies and consumers are not spending. We will not save words: This looks a lot like the beginning of the second Great Depression.

The French economist François Chesnais4 (2008) states that the effect of the financial crisis on the real economy hit emerging markets harder than the developed economies, with the collapse of trade flows and a dramatic drop in the prices of "commodities". It is clear that those hardest hit will be the most poor-especially in Africa-that have less to tell. After these, the hardest hit will be the producers of "commodities" that have always faced great social and demographic problems, such as those high in energy (Russia, Iran, Nigeria and Venezuela). Even the Gulf oil producers were affected. Everyone got used to export and swollen revenue and are facing adjustments.

Gillian Tett (2009) states that

the West's capacity in general and the United States in particular to influence the course of future events will also be compromised. The collapse of the western financial system, while China flourishes, marks a humiliating end to the "unipolar moment", that is, the United States domination. While the authors of Western policies face difficulties, their credibility is ruined. Who still trusts the teachers? These changes will endanger the world ability not only to manage the global economy, but also to deal with the strategic challenges represented by fragile states, terrorism, climate change and the rise of new great powers. In the extreme, the integration of the global economy on which almost all depend now can be reversed.

Gillian Tett (2009) states that the era of financial liberalization over. But unlike the 1930s, there is no alternative in sight to the market economy. According Tett (2009), to find out where capitalism is heading, it is imperative to understand more clearly what went so wrong with the financial system of the century 21. Certainly not lacking are potential culprits: unbridled greed, regulations devoid of rigor, monetary policy excessively loose, fraudulent loans and managerial failure. 3 Paul Krugman, economist, columnist for The New York Times and Professor of Economics and International Affairs at Princeton University, holds the 2008 Economics Nobel. 4 François Chesnais, specialist in industrial economics and economy of technological innovation, member of Larea-Cere Research Laboratory at the University of Paris X Nanterre-and professor at the University of Paris XIII-Villetaneuse, was economist of Direction of Science, Technology and Industry (DSTI) of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

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All this played a role - as occurred in previous periods of prosperity and crisis. Another issue that influenced the crisis was the extraordinary complexity and opacity of the modern financial system. In the last two decades, a wave of innovation has reshaped the way markets work, in a way that seemed to result in great benefits to all parties. But this innovation became so intense that challenged the ability of the most common bankers to understand - not to mention regulators.

Michel Chossudovsky5 (2009) states that

the joint reading of Paul Jorion books - Vers la crise du américain capitalisme? - And Aglietta and Berrebi (Désordres dans le mondial capitalisme Paris. Odile Jacob, 2007) is very useful. The first allows us to understand why it was almost inevitable that the clash occurred in the US mortgage industry.

Paul Jorion launches a well frown on financial practices that he does not hesitate to characterize as almost permanent and intrinsically fraudulent, even where, as in Enron, did not open any criminal proceedings. Aglietta and Berrebi, in turn, explain how the current phase of capitalism can only generate, at close intervals, financial crisis whose epicenter is the United States.

A major problem faced by the world capitalist system is the need for expansion of demand to sustain the production of goods and services. Chossudovsky (2009) states that

to maintain a high level of activity on the planet, "a dynamic approach is necessary". At least for now, she is not from emerging countries (China, India, Brazil), where the distribution of income and the relationships between town and country stunt the growth of domestic consumption and where external surpluses ensure the financing of US deficits. The demand cannot be read by wage income, whose growth is weak. She comes from income distributed to shareholders and the ruling elite, but its overall mass is insufficient to sustain aggregate demand growing rapidly. The answer to this dilemma lies in the power of credit expansion. This is where contemporary capitalism is the demand to perform the requirements of shareholder value.

The French economist François Chesnais (2008) states that

one of the means used to overcome the limits of the capital of the central economies was that they all appealed the creation of completely artificial forms of expansion of effective demand, which, added to the other forms of creation of fictitious capital, generated the conditions for the crisis financial that is developing today.

For Marx, fictitious capital is the accumulation of securities that are "shadow of investments" have made but as a bonus securities and stock appear in the form of capital to its owners. They are not for the system as a whole, for the accumulation process, but they are for their holders, and customary closing conditions of capital recovery processes, yield to their owners dividends and income. But his fictional character is revealed in crisis situations. When befall crisis of overproduction, breaking companies, etc, it warns that capital did not exist.

Is due to the fictitious capital that can read sometimes in the newspapers that the amount of capital disappeared in some "crisis of the market”. These sums had never existed as capital itself, though, for the owners of these shares, represented shares carrying rights to dividends. A major problem today is that in many countries pension systems are based on fictitious capital, with claims of profits of capitalist production that can disappear in times of crisis.

5 Michel Chossudovsky, Canadian economist, visiting professor of academic institutions in Europe, Latin America and Southeast Asia, has served as economic adviser to developing countries and international organizations as consultant.

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The process of financial liberalization and globalization of the 1980s and 1990s was based on fictitious capital accumulation, especially in the hands of investment funds, pension funds, financial funds. And the great news since the end or mid-1990s and throughout the 2000s was in the United States and Britain in particular, the extraordinary impulse that gave the creation of fictitious capital in the form of credit. Credit to companies, but also and above all, housing loans, consumer credit and mostly in mortgages.

This contributed to leap in the mass of fictitious capital created, causing even more acute forms of vulnerability and fragility, including against minor bumps, including front of absolutely predictable episodes. For example, we knew that a "boom" real estate ends inexorably and that in the stock market there was the illusion that there wasn´t limit to the rise in the stock price. Based on all previous history was known that the expansion would not be sustainable nor in real estate neither in the stock market. When dealing with buildings and houses and the stock market is inevitable that the time comes when the "boom" is over.

The end of prosperity, which was a normal and predictable fact, has become a tremendous crisis. Added to all this, the fact that during the last two years, the loans were made in the United States to families without the least ability to pay. And besides, everything was combined with the new financial "technical" allowing so that banks sell bonds in such a way that no one could know exactly what was buying up when there was a loud explosion of "subprime" in 2007.

François Chesnais (2008) raises a big question whether in the short term, domestic demand in China may become the place that ensures that moment of realization of surplus value (exploitation rate, according to Marx, which is the difference between the value produced by labor and the wages paid to the employee) that occurred in the United States. The accumulation of capital in China was made based on internal processes, but also based on something that is perfectly documented, but little discussed: the displacement of a major part of Sector II of the economy, the sector of the production of consumer goods, from United States to China. And this has much to do with the volume of United States deficits (fiscal and commercial), which could only be reversed through a re-industrialization of the United States.

This means that established new relations between the United States and China. It is no longer the relationship of an imperialist power with a semi-colonial country. The United States created relations of a new type, which now have difficulties to recognize and take over. Based on the trade surplus, China accumulates millions and millions of dollars, which immediately lends to the United States. International relations are of an entirely new type.

In Europe there is a clear trend towards accelerating the destruction of productive forces and jobs to move to the unique paradise of the capitalist world today that is China. In China, there was an internal process of competition between capitals, which combined with processes of competition in the Chinese political apparatus and competition to attract foreign companies, which resulted in the creation of huge production capacity process. Besides the ability to violence to nature on a massive scale, also in China focuses one over accumulation of capital that at any given time will become unsustainable.

According Chesnais (2008), the phases of this crisis are distinct from those of 1929, because the US crisis of overproduction was found from the first moments. Just as happened with the crisis of 1929 and in the 1930s, albeit in different forms and conditions, the crisis will combine with the need for capitalism to carry out a complete reorganization of its relations of economic forces on the world, marking the moment that the United States will see that its military superiority is only one element, and a

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very subordinate element, to renegotiate its relations with China and other parts of the world. Or the time will come in which it will jump to a military adventure with unforeseeable consequences. Chesnais (2008) also notes that

we face the risk of a catastrophe, but no longer of capitalism, but of a catastrophe of humanity. In a way, if we take into account the climate crisis, possibly already exists something like this.

Occurred in 2008, a real break that leaves behind a long phase of expansion of the world capitalist economy; and the fracture marked the beginning of a crisis process with features that are comparable to the 1929 crisis, although it may even develop into a very different context. We are facing one of the times when the crisis comes to express the historical limits of the capitalist system.

Entered a phase where it is placed the real possibility of a crisis of humanity within of complex relationships which are also the warlike events, but the most important is that, even excluding the possibility that a large-scale war that in this could only be an atomic war, we are facing a new type of crisis, a combination of this economic crisis that began with a situation in which nature, treated without regard and struck by the man in the framework of capitalism, reacts now brutally. This is something almost excluded from our discussions, but that will be imposed as a central fact.

The process of liberalization and deregulation that it has taken on a global scale, with the incorporation of the former Soviet camp and the development and modification of production relations in China meant the dismantling of the few regulatory elements that was built broadly after World War II, to enter in a totally unregulated capitalism. Not only deregulated, but also a capitalism that really created the world market in the full sense of the term, turning into reality what was for Marx an intuition or anticipation.

Chesnais (2008) advocates the thesis that

during the last fifteen years have developed in certain parts of the system, industry groups that could join up as full members to global oligopolies. Both in India and in China were made true and strong capitalist economic groups. And in financial terms, as an expression of pure profiteering and parasitism, the so-called sovereign wealth funds (financial instrument adopted by some countries that manage the huge foreign exchange reserves of the exporting countries that had their revenue multiplied formidable way in recent years and has been used, most of the time, to acquire shares in foreign companies with financial and strategic goals) became important centralization points of capital in the form of cash, which are mere satellites of the United States, have strategies and their own dynamics and modify many ways geopolitical relations of the key points in the life of the capital is made and will make.

Chesnais (2008) believes that we are facing an imminent danger. The fact that all this happens after such a long phase, without parallel in the history of capitalism, 50 years of uninterrupted accumulation (except a tiny break in 1974/1975), as well as all that the capitalist ruling circles, and in particular central banks. learned from the 1929 crisis, all this makes the crisis go quite slowly.

Central banks and governments can proclaim that agree with each other and work together to prevent the crisis, but Chesnais (2008) does not believe that one can introduce cooperation in world space converted to the scene of a tremendous competition between capitals. And now, the competition between capitals goes well beyond the relationship between the capital of the oldest parts and developed of the world system with sectors less developed under the capitalist point of view. Because in particular forms and even very parasitic in the world occurred capital centralization processes outside the traditional framework of the imperialist centers: in relation to

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them, but under conditions which also introduce something completely new on the world scene.

2. Scenarios of the world economy

Occurred in 2008, a real break that leaves behind a long phase of expansion of the world capitalist economy and the fracture marked the beginning of a crisis process with features that are comparable to the 1929 crisis, although it may develop in a very different context. Just as in 1929, banks were at the epicenter of the crisis, and earlier of this year it seemed that many of them could fail as Lehman Brothers or be nationalized, as indeed occurred with some of them. This picture is reflected in sharp decline on the stock markets, a record increase in "spreads" of risk in lending operations, including the interbank loans, and a trail for government bonds.

The year 2009 began under the threat of new economic depression that the world economy did not suffer from the 1930s. The world capitalist system just did not go into depression after the crisis of 2008 thanks to government interventions worldwide. Unlike what happened in the 1930s, the public sector reacted quickly to the drop in demand and private credit, expanding its activities with spending packages, tax breaks and abundant supply of credit, including through the central banks as in the United States, the euro area and the United Kingdom. Together with Japan, these countries also started the year with interest rates close to zero. In China, the government not only took a big tax package as well as expanded credit on a scale never before recorded.

The financial collapse of the world capitalist system led to a global industrial slowdown in 2009. She is also spreading throughout the real economy, much of which is still calling for assistance. Security for search is strengthening the political control of national states on the markets. The world ends in 2009 with the world economy into recession accounting for very large accumulated losses. In its forecast, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted that in 2009 the world GDP would fall and international trade would contract as actually happened.

The year 2010 was a year with unemployment rates still high in the global economy and volatility above normal in the global financial market. With world GDP growing below potential, job creation has been insufficient to absorb all unemployed and new entrants into the labor market. Doubts about the financial health of companies, especially banks, and, increasingly, of the public accounts are still many. The persistent high unemployment worldwide and slow growth of the world economy may even threaten globalization itself.

The fundamental weaknesses of the global financial sector have not yet been resolved. Questions also remain about the functioning of the international monetary system based on the dollar whose value is falling, the right targets for monetary policy, the management of global capital flows, the vulnerability of emerging countries, as demonstrated in central Europe and eastern, and also the financial weakness demonstrated over the last three decades. Are still waiting for a solution the problems related to the regulation of the world economy. Without this adjustment, the world capitalist system will always be subject to successive crises.

There is much speculation as to the future development of the world economy. Some analysts have advocated the view that the world economy would have an evolution in "V", that is, present at first recession with falling growth whose recovery would happen

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immediately after reaching the lowest point. Others felt that the increase would be in "U", that is, there would be recession with the fall in economic growth followed by a long period of depression after which there would be recovery of growth and the most pessimistic, defended an evolution in "L", that is, then there would be depression without growth prospects. In the latter case, the return to growth only happen with the building of a new world economic order.

Nouriel Roubini (2009) presented a new form of evolution of the world economy, "W", in his article "Growing the risk of further contraction." In this article, Roubini says,

There are two reasons why there is upside risk of a double-dip recession, in the form of W. At first, there are risks associated with exit strategies for great relaxation of monetary policy and fiscal stimulus: the authorities are criticized for acting and also not to act. If they decide to take seriously the large fiscal deficits and enact tax increases, spending cuts and reduction of excessive liquidity may undermine the recovery and lead the economy to a estagdeflação (recession and deflation).

The newspaper Folha de S. Paulo (2009) reported that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said the world has ever practiced go out of the worst recession of the post-World War II, but a firmer recovery may take longer than expected. According to the IMF the good news is that the forces that were pushing the global economy down are losing strength. But the bad news is that it is too weak to force that pushes us up, said the chief economist of the Fund, Olivier Blanchard, in announcing the new provisions contained in the "Panorama of the World Economy". This means that the IMF advocated a evolution between "V" and "U" for the world economy.

The future of the world economy depends on the solution that is given to economic relations between the United States and China, the gigantic public debt of the United States, the recovery of the global financial system, the regulation of the world economy and potential social conflicts. The first problem that needs to be solved is that of economic relations between the United States and China. This problem stems, on the one hand, the fact that the Chinese currency reserves are decisively financing the US deficit growth and on the other, the US market represents the main destination of Chinese exports. With the revenue generated by huge trade surpluses with the United States - and policies that keep its currency artificially low - Beijing is the largest investor in US Treasury securities.

Apparent China's financial control over the United States has gained great prominence. It should be noted that the accumulation by China of huge foreign exchange reserves (US$ 2 trillion) is a side effect of an economic model too dependent on exports. The huge trade surplus of China is the result of an undervalued Yuan that has allowed other countries to consume Chinese goods at the expense of own Chinese population. China cannot sell its Treasury reserves without triggering the collapse of the dollar itself that seems afraid. A key consideration is that if the United States adopts policy to reduce their deficits would lead the country to buy less Chinese products.

The summit between the Chinese and US governments held in 2009 aimed to initiate talks to seek joint solutions, despite differences on the currency to the US budget deficit and the trade gap (exports - imports) between the two countries among others. The Obama administration has maintained the intention to focus on the difference in the trade balance stressing that China should not rely on US consumers to the global economy go out of recession, because the consumption of US households was in contraction. This means that China would have to necessarily boost domestic

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consumption to maintain economic growth and contribute to a faster but more balanced and sustainable global recovery.

The United States is facing a heavy current account deficit, making it the largest foreign debt holder in the world. If the United States did not “tighten their belts”, jeopardizing the "American way of life", and begin to pursue smaller deficits in the current account and trade balance surplus will have to declare moratorium. It should be noted that the obligations of the United States should add an amount exceeding US$ 3 trillion. However, if the United States adopts the policy to “tighten their belts”, reduce deficits and make its trade balance surplus would be the commitment of international trade given the weight of the US in the world economy. This means that, whatever the solution to the US economy, the current global crisis will continue advancing from the recession to chronic depression. The evolution of the world economy would therefore be "L".

Martin Wolf (2009), writer for the Financial Times, asked whether "the world economy is coming out of the crisis? The world has learned the right lessons? The answer to both questions is: to some extent. We did some things right ones and learn some of the right lessons. But not done enough nor learned enough". Wolf also says that we must put this news, however welcome they may be, in context. The worst of the financial crisis may be behind us, but the financial system remains undercapitalized and carrying a burden of doubtful assets still unknown. Rather, it is anchored by a massive explicit and implicit taxpayer support. The probability of injury to the front is close to 100%.

The capitalization of the financial system has a negative impact on the real economy inhibiting the financing of productive sector and international trade. Many countries are experiencing sharp declines in their export earnings due to reduced global demand resulting from the global recession, but also because of the credit crunch for export. It is feared that in an attempt to stimulate each country its own economy in the current situation associated with the adoption of protectionist measures, leading to a chain reaction. This would reduce international trade, increase unemployment and would feed the crisis in each country and on a global scale. The search for advantages in each country would take the worst case scenario for everyone: the depression of the world economy. Many analysts feared a repeat of what happened during the Great Depression in the 1930s. A return to protectionism would be a serious risk to the continuity of the process of globalization.

Martin Wolf (2009) also stated that behind the excess of capacity and of huge increases in fiscal deficits was the disappearance of consumer who spends a lot, especially in the United States. Prudence of private sector probably will endure in a post-bubble world characterized by mountains of debt. Those expecting a quick return to 2006 custom business are fantasizing. A slow and difficult recovery, dominated by deleveraging and deflationary risks, was the most likely prospect. Fiscal deficits will remain huge for years. Alternative - liquidation of excess of debt through higher inflation or bankruptcy in mass-will not be allowed. The high dependence of a huge monetary expansion and fiscal deficits in countries which previously consumed much will be unsustainable in the end. Wolf's view is that the evolution of the world economy would occur in "U".

According to Martin Wolf (2008),

the world is no takers willing private loan and credible. The spectacular collapse of the western financial system is a symptom of this great fact. In the short term, governments will replace

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private sectors as borrowers. But this cannot last forever. In the long term, the global economy will have to rebalance. If the surplus countries do not expand domestic demand relative to potential output, the economy of the open world can even break. As in the 30s, this is now a real risk.

Looking at the world economy, Chesnais (2008) found that

it would need to find remedies for the savings rate. She is too low in some countries, too high in others. The United States, where she became negative, and China represent the extreme poles of this distortion. The reconstitution of a savings rate that failed to make America the seat, if not the most immediate transmitter of successive financial crises "requires a budget consolidation incompatible with the policy guidelines of the conservative majority in power. Mainly involves a considerable recovery of household savings. This supposes a cruel revision of credit to consumption, combined with the terrifying waste of non-renewable resources, which is the way of American life.

For Wolf (2009), the stronger the growth in demand in surplus countries, relative to potential GDP, and more powerful the global rebalancing would be healthier global recovery. This will happen? Wolf doubts. The persistent high unemployment and low growth may even threaten globalization itself. The fundamental weaknesses in the financial sector have not yet been addressed. Questions also remain about the functioning of the international monetary system based on the dollar, the right targets for monetary policy, the management of global capital flows, the vulnerability of emerging economies, as demonstrated in Central and Eastern Europe, and also the financial fragility demonstrated so often and so painfully over the past three decades.

Paul Krugman criticizes the austerity policy imposed on countries of the European Union by the European Central Bank and IMF stating that the expansion, not contraction, is the right time for austerity. So declared John Maynard Keynes 75 years ago, and he was right. Even if you have a long-term deficit problem-and who does not? - Cut spending in a period of deep economic depression is a defeatist strategy, because only serves to worsen depression even more. So what happens if everyone simultaneously reduces spending in order to reduce their debts? The answer: everyone's income falls. When the private sector is frantically struggling to pay debts, the public sector should do the opposite, spending when the private sector cannot or will not do it [See Article A agenda da austeridade (The agenda of austerity) published in the newspaper Folha de S. Paulo of 02/06/2012].

In an interview with the Washington Post, the US economist James K. Galbraith criticizes the orthodox recipe that recommends cutting public spending as a way to face the crisis. For Galbraith, what is happening in Europe is heartbreaking. The idea that the financing difficulties (of the state) emanate from public deficits is a argument supported in a very powerful metaphor, but not in the facts, not in theory and not in everyday experience. The recipe that is suggested now that it is possible to cut public spending without cutting economic activity is completely fallacious. This is occurring now in Europe and is heartbreaking. It is required that the Greeks cut 10% of public spending in a few years. And it is assumed that it will not affect the GDP. Of course it will affect. And affect in such a way that they will not have the fiscal income needed to finance even a lower level of public spending. And are forcing Spain to do the same. The euro zone is heading towards the abyss [See Article A zona euro está um despenhadeiro (The euro zone is a cliff) published on the website <http://www.esquerda.net/dossier/%E2%80%9C-zona-euro-est%C3%A1 -a-cliff% E2% 80% 9D>].

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The orthodox recipe cited by James K. Galbraith is dictated by the European Central Bank and the IMF which along with the banks form the Complex Financial imposing their will on the governments of the European Union requiring a huge austerity in public spending, including public social spending what is to mean a huge sacrifice for the popular classes of the bloc's member countries and, in particular, the peripheral nations of the European Union - Greece, Portugal, Spain and Ireland - so that these states can pay the banks of the core capitalist countries public debt with lush and confiscatory interest. The Financial Complex aims to weaken the state of social welfare, dilute and reduce the social dimension of Europe and reduce the social and labor rights.

United States, Europe and China have today economic performance that calls into question the recovery of the world economy. In addition to the deep crisis in the European Union, the United States do not present signs of recovery with high unemployment that is taking place there and China shows clear signs of slowing. In Europe, the euro area labor market is with the worst indicators since the single currency came. Unemployment in the United States grew this year signaling that the recovery in the world's largest economy is very small and less reliable. In China, the engine of global economic recovery, industrial output show the worst result this year fueling doubts about the ability of the second world economy sustain its growth.

One concern today is deteriorating political and institutional situation with the growth of authoritarian tendencies in Europe and the United States. Extreme right parties gain sudden political support of the ruling classes and large segments of the population with unemployed masses and spread xenophobic discourse in the United States and throughout Europe, with greater intensity in Austria, Finland and Hungary. Hangs in the air a politically disruptive syndrome. This is the current unbearable debt of sovereign states of Europe whose treatment by the European Central Bank and IMF is demanding more austerity and sacrifices and less economic growth. The huge debt imposed on Germany by the Versailles Peace Treaty in 1919 was just the broth of culture that generated Nazism and all that came with it. There is not a Hitler still in Europe and the United States.

The French economist Jacques Attali, predicted in his work Tous ruinés dans dix ans?- Dette publique: La dernière chance (Librairie Arthème Fayard, 2010 that in ten years the economic model that prevails today in the world will be ruined. After the failure of the Euro and the Dollar and the ruin of Asia, the world will be taken to depression and world inflation. The American sociologist Immanuel Wallerstein stated in its Unthinking science social work (Cambridge: Polity Press, 1995) and in his other publications that systemic crisis currently experienced in the world economy will go until 2050 or 2075. On the instead, the Russian economist Nikolai Dimitrievitch Kondratieff presented in his book Les grands cycles of La conjoncture (Economica, 1992) called super cycles,, big waves, long waves or long economic cycles of the modern capitalist world economy, which applied to the current situation, indicate that the end of the current general crisis of the world capitalist system will only happen in 2029 or 2049.

The Kondratieff thesis is that cycles consist of alternating periods of high growth and relatively slow growth ranging from 40 to 60 years. Kondratieff identified three phases in the cycle: expansion, stagnation, recession In his research on the nineteenth century, Kondratieff found in 1920 the existence of two cycles (1790-1849 lasting 54 years and another from 1850 to 1896 with a duration of 46 years). In an effort to expand the

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Kondratieff cycle of the twentieth century, can be considered the third cycle starting in 1896 and ending in 1945 (end of World War II) for a period of 49 years; the fourth cycle starting in 1945 and ending in 1989 (fall of the Berlin Wall), with a duration of 44 years and the fifth cycle beginning in 1989 and ending in 2029 or 2049 with duration of 40 or 60 years.

In 1790- 1849 cycle, the expansion of the economy occurred until its collapse or stagnation in 1815 with the fall of the Napoleonic Empire, when political and economic structures of the Old Regime were shaken, then the recession until 1849. From September 1814 to June 1815, the great powers of the big four (England, Prussia, Russia and Austria) met in Vienna Congress seeking to rebuild the old European order and redraw the political map of Europe. In 1850- 1896 cycle, the expansion of the economy happened until its collapse with the Depression of 1873, 58 years after the 1815 crisis, then the recession until 1896. It should be noted that the 1873 depression contributed to intensify the competition between European imperialist powers that led to the First World War (1914-1918). In the 1896-1945 cycle, the economy's expansion happened from 1896 until its collapse in the Great Depression of 1929, 56 years after the 1873 crisis, then the recession until 1945. The worldwide depression of 1929 decisively contributed to the outbreak of World War II World (1939-1945).

In the 1945-1989 cycle, the expansion of the economy happened until the oil shock in 1973 that shook the world economy, 44 years after the Great Depression of 1929, when there was a marked decline in capital profitability, economic and political struggles in all major countries of the world, especially the popular rebellion of May 1968 in France, and the escalation of the Vietnam War, followed by recession until 1989. The end of this cycle coincides with the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. The subsequent cycle began in 1989 with its expansion until the current economic crisis of 2008, 35 years after the 1973 crisis, followed by recession that is expected ending in 2029, after 40 years, or in 2049 after 60 years. In other words, the end of the current general crisis of the world capitalist system will only have an end in the next 14 or 34 years. From the above, one can see that by applying the Kondratieff cycles results converge with the views of Wallerstein and Attali. Attali, in turn, believes that the world economy as it operates at the moment will be ruined in 10 years, that is, the world depression will occur until 2020. Anyway, Wallerstein and Attali converge on the conclusion that the capitalist system as it operates today will disappear.

According to Wallerstein, during this period of systemic chaos in which we live we will have a few moments of peace, stability and legitimacy of governments. Wallerstein has the view that failure to comply with social needs of the population and the fiscal crisis in each country will lead to a mass struggle that could take the form of civil war at the global level and in each state. This situation has already registered in the Arab world with the outbreak of the Arab Spring that has brought several dictatorships, and also in the European Union where the mass struggle intensifies against the austerity policy of the European Central Bank and European governments to combat the crisis. The legitimacy of state structures and therefore their ability to maintain order is being and will be kept in check throughout the world. This whole situation could pave the way for social revolution and the rise of fascism which, by the way, in several European countries and even in the United States, the extreme right grows and strengthens. According to Wallerstein, after the "split" that may occur in 2050 or 2075, we should not be living in a capitalist world economy.

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The French economist Jacques Attali published over 50 books translated into twenty languages, including Tous dans dix ans Ruïnes - Dette publish: La dernière chance (Librairie Artheme Fayard, 2010). In this book, Attali predicts the occurrence of four steps to the unfolding of the economic crisis that erupted in 2008 in the United States and that spreads around the world. These steps are:

Step 1: Public debt become heavier

If nothing is done quickly, the public debt of OECD countries (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), considered developed countries, will continue to grow massively under the effect of the fall in tax revenue, the inability to getting back economic growth, losses giant of banks and financial institutions and the increase in social spending. In these countries, public debt would grow dramatically. In Japan, the debt ratio is expected to increase from 204% of GDP in 2009 to 245% of GDP in 2014 and 300% in 2020. Even though Japan accumulates a large stock of capital, its ability to finance its debt with their own savings runs out. Japanese savers will no longer finance the Japanese state due to the progressive loss of confidence. Interest rates are expected to increase, public debt will reach extremely high levels and the default will come inevitably.

The debt of Italy would increase from 115.3% of GDP in 2009 to 128.5% of GDP in 2014, Germany 78.7% to 89.3% of GDP, France from 83% to 96.3% of GDP, the United Kingdom 68.7% to 98.3% of GDP. The Greek public debt would be 133.7% of GDP in 2014. Portugal, Ireland and Spain whose public debt doubled in four years would be in worse situations. In 2020, the public debt of the United Kingdom would exceed 200% of GDP and of Belgium, France, Ireland, Greece and Italy would exceed 150% of GDP. In 2011, the US public debt represented 80% of GDP and is expected to reach 150% of GDP in 2020. Unlike those countries, most developing countries become fewer debtors. In 2010, public debt was null in China, Brazil went from 68.5% to 58.8% of GDP, India 84.7% to 78.6% of GDP, Mexico from 47.8% to 44.3% of GDP and Russia remained unchanged (7.2% of GDP). This trend will continue and in the next 20 years, China will become the world's largest creditor. In 2014, the public debt of the rich countries could represent 120% of its GDP and the emerging countries 40% of its GDP.

To cope with the increase of their public debt, governments of indebted countries in the OECD aimed with its economic policies at obtaining tax surpluses to pay its creditors (banks) on the premise that the financial system cannot be brought to bankruptcy. In this sense, they take up of higher taxes policies and privatization of state enterprises, dismissal of civil servants and reduced government spending in general which are generating growing dissatisfaction of populations of several countries (Greece, Spain and Portugal). These policies contribute to constrain economic growth in these countries.

Step 2: The failure of the Euro and the worldwide depression

For the OECD countries to obtain in 2060 a reasonable level of debt of around 60% of GDP, would have to reduce public spending to 8% of GDP that would require to reduce public spending by 300 billion Euros or substantially raise taxes that are almost impossible perspectives because there would be increased social upheavals and the peoples of these countries prefer fails to pay the public debt. Given this fact, financial markets do not believe that European governments will be able to restore your balance.

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The EU countries hesitate to show solidarity between them to save the economies of Greece, Spain, Portugal and other countries in difficulty. To slow the default against the financial system, the European Union will seek all the solutions. Given this situation, in the absence of real solidarity among EU member countries, the trend is the departure of its most vulnerable members, starting with Greece. The Euro and achievements accomplished by European Union countries will be put in check. There will be a rise in protectionism and depression will extend to the entire European continent. European democracies will not come out unscathed from this deep crisis.

Step 3: Dollar Bankruptcy and return of global inflation

The US government will be obliged to issue ever more dollars to finance its public debt making the country is increasingly weakened economically. The United States will be the next victim of the confidence of creditors’ crisis. The recession with deep EU crisis will affect the US economic growth contributing to the fall in tax revenues and the increase in public spending. The US public debt that now exceeds 11 trillion dollars will increase steeply. The dollar will depreciate in relation to the Chinese currency, Russian, Indian and Brazilian and especially for gold and raw materials. For a time, the central banks of Asian countries holding US Treasury bonds have an interest in not allowing the dollar to depreciate getting them even at high interest rates. The higher the rate of return on US Treasury securities, the greater the burden on the payment of the public debt. To address this situation, the US government will have to raise taxes and reduce public spending that will prevent the resumption of economic growth. To avoid depression, the US government will choose inflation as a means to promote economic growth causing the dollar to devaluate more and more. The financial crisis will lead to loss of confidence in the world in the West that will be replaced by Asia.

Step 4: Depression and Asia ruin

The Chinese government will do everything to discredit the Euro and then the Dollar. China avoid having reserves in dollars increasingly devalued, believe that their assets abroad will be devalued, its exports will be exhausted and will not have enough resource to finance the deficits of Western countries and their own investments in physical and social infrastructure. As a result, China will redirect your savings and your industry for the domestic market. None of this will not prevent, however, that the depression extends to the economy of the entire planet.

According to Jacques Attali, in human history, except in times of total war, the public debt of the world's most powerful countries never reached as high as the recently recorded and designed for the future. Never the dangers that may weigh on the living standards of the world's population and their political systems were so threatening. It is clearly shown that the current crisis is worse than that of 1929-1933, because it is absolutely global. The international financial system no longer works. The neoliberal model that ruled the world in the last 40 years died and there will be depression that will last many years and not just 10 years as prognostic Jacques Attali. The global crisis that began in 2008 is, to a market economy, which was equivalent to the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989.

To overcome the global economic crisis, Attali proposes the creation of a bank and financial architecture and policy for management of sovereign debt, among other measures. It must be remembered that in the past, depression 1870 led to the outbreak of the 1st. World War and the Depression of 1929 did outbreak of the 2nd. World War. To

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avoid a new world war as a consequence of the current global crisis, it is urgent to build a new world order to be able to manage the sovereign debt, but above all ensure cooperation among all governments in the promotion of human progress .

It is known by all scholars of the world economy that overcome the crisis that erupted in the United States in 2008 would depend on the recovery of the economies of the United States and the European Union and the expansion of the Chinese economy. According to Paul Krugman, the American economist winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics 2008, "the fifth anniversary of the fall of Lehman Brothers, the recession, which was bad in itself, turned into something much more frightening. Suddenly, we were faced with the real possibility of economic catastrophe. And the catastrophe came" [See the article Há cinco anos EUA vivem desperdício trágico by Paul Krugman (Five years ago US live tragic waste) available on the website <http://noticias.uol.com.br/blogs-e-colunas/coluna/paul-krugman/2013/09/07/ha-cinco-anos-eua-vivem-desperdicio-tragico.htm>].

The economic stimulus of Obama government, however inappropriate it was, according to Krugman, contained the US economic decline in 2009. Despite this, "the American economic policy since the Lehman Brothers was an astonishing failure, terrifying". An indisputable fact is that five years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the US recovery is still uncertain. In the article by Denise Chrispim Marin, published on newspaper O Estado de S. Paulo, under the title A recuperação dos EUA ainda é incerta (The US recovery is still uncertain), available on the website<http://www.estadao.com.br/noticias/impresso,cinco-anos-apos-a-quebra-do-lehman-recuperacao-dos-eua-ainda-e-incerta-,1072442,0.htm>, there is the statement that, "five years after the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 30s, the slow and faltering pace of the recovery reflects the difficulty still present to overcome the collapse caused by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers".

In this article, it can be seen that the United States did not come out of the crisis, according to Octaviano Canuto, advisor to the World Bank presidency, being far from its potential GDP. The injection of public funds to bail out banks reached US$ 700 billion, of which US$ 24.9 billion were channeled to the three largest automakers in the country. The basic interest rate was reduced to between 0% to 0.25% in December 2008 and remains until today. As a percentage of GDP, the investment rate had fallen from 20.5% in 2006 to 14.7% in 2009. In 2013, should reach 16.8%, according to the World Bank. The debt of American households in the second quarter of 2013 totaled US$ 11.15 trillion.

On the world economic front, the year 2011 was marked by the economic crisis in the European Union. The high public debt, especially in countries like Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy and Ireland and the lack of political, economic and monetary coordination of the European Union to address public debt issues of the bloc's nations were the main causes of the crisis. EU crisis resulted in the flight of capital, the shortage of credit, rising unemployment, popular discontent against measures to reduce spending adopted by countries as a way to contain the crisis, fall in GDP growth in the EU countries due to the economic slowdown in the bloc and contamination of the crisis to countries outside the bloc, which has commercial relations with the European Union.

To face the crisis, the actions of the European Union consisted of implementation of anti-crisis economic package launched on 27/10/2011, on greater participation of the IMF (International Monetary Fund) and the European Central Bank financial assistance

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to countries with economic difficulties and the definition of a Fiscal Pact to ensure the balance of public accounts of the European Union countries and create systems of punishment for countries that break the pact. The year 2013 did not start well for the European Union. The GDP of the bloc fell by 0.2% in the first quarter. In the second quarter of 2013 the bloc's economy showed a slight recovery.

In his article O modelo econômico chinês está prestes a bater na Grande Muralha (Chinese economic model is about to hit the Great Wall), available on the website<http://noticias.uol.com.br/blogs-e-colunas/coluna/paul-krugman/2013/07/20/modelo-economico-chines-esta-prestes-a-bater-na-grande-muralha.htm>, Paul Krugman says that "now the signs are unmistakable: China is in trouble. We're not talking about some small setback in, but something more fundamental. The whole way the country does business, the economic system that promoted three decades of incredible growth has reached its limit. You could say that the Chinese model is about to collide with his Great Wall, and the only question now is how ugly will be the hit".

For Krugman, what immediately jumps out is that "when China is compared to almost all other economies, except its rapid growth, is the imbalance between consumption and investment. All successful economies devote part of their income for investment rather than consumption, aiming to expand its future capacity to consume. China, however, seems only invest to expand its future ability to invest even more. The United States, known for its high point, devotes 70% of their gross domestic product for consumption; in China, the number is only half of that, while nearly half of GDP is invested".

This situation continued in China due to low salary levels. Now wages are rising, finally, ordinary Chinese are beginning to share the fruits of growth. But it also means that the Chinese economy is seen suddenly faced with the need, according to Krugman, a "rebalancing" drastic. The investment now features sharply lower returns and fall dramatically and consumption should increase dramatically to take his place. The question is whether this can happen fast enough to prevent an economic downturn harmful as is already happening.

Krugman notes that an excess peasant is running out in China. This has contributed to the existence of low-cost Chinese labor and ensures the competitiveness of China in the world market. While the Chinese economy slows down, the Western economies are burdened with private debtors that leads them to contain consumer spending at the same time, and, in so doing, cause a general economic slowdown. In other words, the economic crisis is presented as insoluble within the framework of the capitalist system in place.

In the article, published on the website <http://outraspalavras.net/posts/economia-global-rumo-a-grande-tempestade/> under the title Economia global: rumo à grande tempestade? (Global Economy: Towards the big storm?) written by Jack Rasmus, Ph.D., professor of Political Economy at St. Mary's College in Moraga, California and Labour Economics and Economic History of the United States at the University of California at Berkeley, the author identifies three phases of the economic global crisis: the first phase of the global economic crisis had at its core the US economy from 2007 to 2010. The second phase of the global economic crisis was centered in Europe, following the strong US decline in 2008-09 in addition to face a second recession in 2011-12. The third phase of the global economic crisis began in 2014 with the financial and economic instability that is happening and advancing in emerging markets such as

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Brazil, including China where economic growth is slowing. Thus, the epicenter of the global crisis, which first occurred in 2008 in the United States and moved to Europe between 2010 and 2013, is now focusing on emerging market economies, including China.

According to Jack Rasmus, before the global financial crisis and the recession of 2008, China's economy was growing at an annual rate of 14%. Today, the rate is 7.5%, with a strong possibility of an even lower rate of growth in 2014. Since 2012, China faces a growing problem with global shadow banks that destabilize the housing market and the debt market local public. On the financial side, total debt (public and private) in China rose from 130% of GDP in 2008 to 230% of GDP, with the participation of the global shadow banks rising from 25% in 2008 to 90% of the total in 2013. The share of global shadow banks in the total debt nearly quadrupled and represents virtually all the increase in the ratio between public and private total debt to GDP since 2008. As a result, the global shadow banks are the driving force behind the growing problem of debt and Chinese financial fragility.

Much of the increase in Chinese debt was directed to a housing bubble, accompanied by a local public debt bubble, since local governments led to limit the real estate projects, new business loans and infrastructure projects. The increase in private sector debt is approaching critical proportions in China. An important event of global instability can easily arise in the event of a default of a bank or financial product. In a way, the current situation of China seems, according to Jack Rasmus, increasingly with real estate markets and local and American state public debt of 2006. In other words, China may be approaching its moment Lehman Brothers.

Jack Rasmus says that the growing financial instability of the local markets of China is a possible serious problem also for the global economy, since China and the world economy began to slow down in 2014. In early 2014, the real estate bubble seemed to gain strength again, while the real Chinese economy showed signs of slowing. Other factors that contribute even more to the slowdown of the Chinese economy in 2014 is the industrial sector, an important source of economic growth, specifically the export industry, which is slowing. The causes of the slowdown of the Chinese economy are the internal changes of its economy and increasing problems in the economies of the euro area and emerging markets whose demand is falling. In addition, China is dealing with a general pay increase and an exchange rate increasingly unfavorable to its currency, the Yuan. These two factors are driving up production costs and, in turn, making their exports less competitive. The increasing production costs are causing to an exodus of global multinational corporations in China, towards economies with even lower costs, such as Vietnam, Thailand and other places.

Most of China's exports go to Europe and emerging markets, not just to the United States. And as the emerging market economies slow, demand for products manufactured by China and exports decrease. On the other hand, while China itself economically slows, it reduces its imports of commodities, semi-finished products and raw materials from emerging markets (and on key markets such as Australia and Korea). Now, the massive influx of cheap capital that migrated to emerging markets like Brazil after 2008 (running from near zero interest rates in the center of the system) is coming back quickly to the United States, Europe, Japan and the West. As the capital leaves emerging markets, their currencies are being increasingly at risk of collapse. From the end of 2013, in a matter of months, the major currencies of emerging countries devalued

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10-20%. The decline scenario of currencies, capital flight and slowdown in emerging economies promises to become a spiral of dangerous degradation and self amplifying for the world economy.

Jack Rasmus summarizes, in his article Economia global: rumo à grande tempestade? (Global Economy: Towards the big storm?), saying to be three global significant global economic trends that began to intensify and to converge in recent months: (1) China's economy slowing along with increased financial instability in its shadow banking system; (2) a collapse of the currencies of emerging markets (India, Brazil, Turkey, South Africa, Indonesia etc.) and their respective economic downturns; (3) a continuous shift towards deflation in the economies of the euro area, driven by an increase problems in Italy and the economic stagnation that reaches to France, the second largest economy in the euro zone.

This picture described points in the sense that, in 2015, humanity will continue to be faced with the huge threat posed by the global economic meltdown if nothing is done to restructure the world capitalist system. When is subject to "fluctuations", as occurred after the crisis that erupted in 2008 in the United States, a dynamic system as the world capitalist system inexorably leads to a bifurcation point from which the system should be restructured in search of a new dynamic stability or collapses. In other words, in the bifurcation point, the system has to be restructured or collapse. This is the situation faced by the world economy and that of many countries, including Brazil, which, after the global crisis that erupted in 2008, there was no restructuring of the world economic system and national economic systems.

Immanuel Wallerstein, American sociologist and university professor, says in his article Crise dos “emergentes” ou do Sistema?, published on the website <http://outraspalavras.net/posts/wallerstein-crise-dos-emergentes-ou-do-sistema/>, that "few seem to admit that global effective demand was the real problem. But it is clear that, below the surface, the longer detected. That's why they are in a panic, because then all its emphasis on "growth" - a crucial faith - will be undermined. In this case, the crisis is no longer cyclical and becomes structural: cannot be solved with palliative, but with the invention of a new system. This is the famous fork in that there are two possible outcomes - a better and a worse one than the existing system. A game in which we will all be involved".

Instead of adopting national and global coordinated strategies aimed at overcoming the global economic crisis with the restructuring of the world capitalist system and of each country, everything was done to keep the bankrupt economic structure and outdated policies that led to the outbreak of the 2008 crisis. The neoliberal model that ruled the world in the last 40 years died and there will be depression that will last for many years. Given the existence of chaos that dominates the world economy, the hour of each country and mankind provide themselves as urgently as possible instruments needed to have control of their destiny. To have control of their destiny, humanity needs to exercise governance of their economic systems and the world economy. This is the only means of survival of the human species.

3. World Scenarios in the social field

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The main social problem resulting from the global economic and financial crisis of 2008 is unemployment that is already assuming gigantic proportions. The newspaper Diário da Manhã published an article by Marcos Cintra6 (2009) under the title Desemprego no mundo e no Brasil (Unemployment in the world and in Brazil). The text of the article is as follows:

The International Labour Organization (ILO) produced the report "Global Employment Trends" and it estimates that the global recession may generate in 2009, compared to 2007, an additional number of unemployed between 18 million and 30 million people, but that number can reach 50 million if the framework continues to deteriorate.

The ILO (International Labor Organization) report points out that in rich economies like the United States, Canada, European Union, Japan, among others, additional unemployed may vary between 4 million and 11 million people. In East and South Asia unemployment can reach between 8 million and 26 million workers. In Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa contingent would be between 3 million and 10 million.

The ILO does not provide in the report data for countries, making it only to regions. In the case of Brazil the information is contained in Latin America and the Caribbean, where it is estimated that the unemployed may vary between 2 million and 4 million workers in nearly 50 countries of the region.

ILO data show that the global economic turmoil started in the United States will have a devastating impact on the labor market in rich countries. In the United States, for example, the number of unemployed today is 12.5 million people, and this number was just over 7 million in 2007.

In Europe, unemployment reached 8% in December last year, the highest of the last two years, and in Japan the industry frequently announces job cuts and it is estimated that about 30,000 dekasseguis are returning to Brazil because of that.

The labor market situation in Brazil due to the global crisis is relatively good compared to the rich countries of Europe, North America and Japan. Unemployment worries here, but the situation is more dramatic outside like designs ILO.

The federal government is reorienting the guidelines of macroeconomic policy by strengthening the domestic market to offset the global downturn. But it must dissipate extremely bad environment that has been created, and that increases the drama of Brazilian workers, and seek alternatives to avoid job cuts.

An alternative that I put in debate could better distribute the impact of the crisis on the productive sector. Instead of simply cutting jobs companies could negotiate with the unions a reduction in wages in proportion of the intended layoffs. If a company concludes that it would cut, for example, 20% of its payroll, this reduction would take place not with staff cuts, but by reducing wages in the same proportion.

Certainly, there would be a consensus among the workers who would rather keep their jobs, even though receiving less than losing a job and live with zero income. In addition, the trend is that even to find another job, in a crisis, their remuneration for the same position probably be reduced.

The World Bank President Robert Zoellick told the newspaper El País (2009) in Spain there was a risk of "serious human and social crisis", because of the current economic crisis if they are not appropriate measures taken in time. The holder of the World Bank warned that the current situation was still unpredictable and that it's best "be prepared". "What began as a great financial crisis and became a deep economic crisis, is now

6 Marcos Cintra, PhD in Economics from Harvard University, is professor and vice chairman of the Getulio Vargas Foundation.

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drifting into a major unemployment crisis”. The holder of the World Bank not rejected the hypothesis of a global economic recovery, as several authorities of the most developed countries have suggested. But he warned that "it will be a low-intensity recovery, for a long time", and added, "unemployment will continue to grow". "The probability of a great depression is low, but never zero," he said.

The Jornal de Notícias (2009) published text on 04/05/2009 under the title Aumento do desemprego pode provocar crise social (Increased unemployment can cause social crisis). This paper reported the following:

The President of the Eurogroup, the also Luxembourg Prime Minister, Jean-Claude Juncker, said that unemployment is growing up "disturbing levels". The finance ministers of the euro zone (Eurogroup) warned of the risk that the economic and financial crisis affecting Europe bring with it a "social crisis", caused by the sharp rise in unemployment.

At the end of the monthly meeting of the Eurogroup, its president, also of Luxembourg Prime Minister, Jean-Claude Juncker, said that unemployment is growing up "disturbing levels" and considered that the region's governments should address "all his efforts" to combat the situation.

Under the new economic forecasts published today by the European Commission, the unemployment rate in the euro zone countries should grow to 9.9 percent in 2009 and should reach 11.5 percent in 2010. Jean-Claude Juncker also asked "social responsibility" to companies, warning that in the current context should avoid resorting to layoffs as a cost-cutting measure.

The President of the Eurogroup stressed that one cannot underestimate the "explosive character" that has rising unemployment and the problems it may cause, reminding that the most affected by this element are the lowest social strata. In its meeting today, dedicated almost exclusively to the analysis of new economic forecasts from Brussels, the leaders of the economic policy of the euro zone also agreed that at present no need for further cyclical momentum measures in Europe.

Jean-Claude Juncker insisted that the effort that Europe has made to fight to combat the crisis is equivalent to the US and reiterated that "does not see the need to increase the volume" of funds injected into the economy.

The site Terra.com.br (2009) published text on 22 April 2009 under the title Crise financeira pode levar à crise social na Ásia, diz OIT (Financial crisis can lead to social crisis in Asia, says ILO). The text is as follows:

The International Labour Organization (ILO) said on Wednesday at a meeting in Manila, the Philippines, the international economic and financial crisis can bring the risk of a social crisis in Asia, where the agency predicts there will be more 23.3 million unemployed and more than 140 million poor this year.

"If we face a prolonged financial crisis, there is a danger of falling into a social crisis in the region," said ILO economist Gyorgy Sziraczki, to participants from 11 countries. The Regional Director of the ILO, Sachiko Yamamoto said in his speech, which is "a real scenario" that tends to form with "a magnitude of breathtaking speed" because the impact of the financial crisis "is being felt deeply in countries industrialized and emerging Asia".

A study of this agency estimates that 23.3 million workers will lose their jobs this year and will join the 90 million unemployed who had this region of the world in late 2008, and provides for "a dramatic increase in poverty in more than 140 million people in 2009 ". The report says that about 60 million workers in the formal sector will go to the informal sector this year, with the risk of lost of wages and social protection.

The document highlights that Asia will spend 3.9% of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in economic stimulus plans, and yet, Asian governments are those that will allocate less money to

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social protection worldwide. The report states that "the substantial economic slowdown will lead to freezing or reduction of wages", and this situation potentially will increase the labor disputes.

The ILO urged governments in the region to act now to address these problems, and the Asian Development Bank noted that any measure should include formulas to create jobs and infrastructure that benefit the poor. The International Labor Organization (ILO) said on Wednesday at a meeting in Manila, the Philippines, the international economic and financial crisis can bring the risk of a social crisis in Asia, where the agency predicts there will be more 23.3 million unemployed and more than 140 million poor this year.

The site Rumo Sustentável (Towards Sustainable) (2009) published paper under the title Crise atual pode ser mais intensa do que a de 1929, diz sociólogo (Current crisis may be more intense than that of 1929, says sociologist). In this paper, it was presented an interview with Ricardo Antunes, professor at the State University of Campinas (Unicamp) and a specialist in labor market issues. In this interview Ricardo Antunes says that companies, before the current crisis, have undergone processes of "lyophilization" and “wiped” his "living substances", the workers, through technological modernization and restructuring process. The result was the growth of so-called structural unemployment, which can greatly increase the global economic crisis today.

Ricardo Antunes said that the global economic and financial crisis is having a devastating result for the working class. The International Labor Organization (ILO) made the forecast of new 50 million unemployed in 2009, which increased the number of unemployed for up to 340 million people worldwide. This figure was a conservative estimate. Only China announced that 26 million rural former workers, who were busy in the cities, have lost their jobs. The tragedy that struck between workers is monumental, beginning with immigrants in search of work in the northern hemisphere, but also the working class in general, which was used in the metal industry, textile, in the food industry, etc. The first thing that business takes on the verge of a crisis is the cut in jobs. It is emblematic that the United States, Britain and Japan live the highest unemployment rate in decades.

Ricardo Antunes said that the Brazilian government tried to sell us the idea, completely false, that we were immune to the crisis. The truth, however, is that we, in late 2009, we had 640,000 new unemployed. Since then, data have improved, because the government has taken measures such as the reduction of the IPI (Excise Tax) of cars and white goods to prevent the recession was tougher. But these measures would have short breath. The Brazilian economy is much globalized. The Brazil relies heavily on foreign markets because of the commodities. The outcome of the Brazilian crisis is very tied to the outcome of the international crisis. We cannot have an illusion that the country is a pink island in a turbulent sea.

4. Future geopolitical changes

Giovanni Arrighi (1996) states that there were four systemic cycles of capital accumulation during the evolution of capitalism as a world system: a Genoese cycle, from the fifteenth century to the early seventeenth century; a Dutch cycle, from the end of the sixteenth century until the elapsed most of the eighteenth century; a British cycle, from the second half of the century XVIIII until the early twentieth century; a US cycle, which began in late nineteenth century and continuing in the current phase of financial

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expansion. Also according to the author, the Genoese regime lasted 160 years, the Dutch 140 years, the British 160 years and the US 100 years.

Giovanni Arrighi takes the view that, in each of the capital accumulation cycles, commercial and production expansion in the beginning gave way in the end a more concentrated expertise in high finance, that is, on speculation and financial intermediation. This is the situation that prevails in the world economy today. According to François Chesnais (2008), the crisis of the world capitalist system that broke out in 2008 has as another of its dimensions to mark the end of the stage in which the United States could act as a world power without parallel.

In the opinion of Chesnais (2008), experienced a time when the United States, are being subjected to the test. In a very short time period, all the international relations of the United States have changed that should, at best, renegotiate and reorder all its relations based on the fact that they will have to share power worldwide. The era in which the United States sought to impose its will on the international stage over. It is what is already happening from the Obama administration.

There is an assumption in many parts of the world that the general crisis of the world capitalist system, represented by the freezing of the financial system, accelerates the long-term geopolitical shift, heralding the decline of American power and European influence. "The crisis emphasizes the fact that China is a key global player," said Bobo Lo (2008). According to Bobo Lo, "it may not yet be a world superpower, but accelerated this trend."

The newspaper Estado de Sao Paulo published on 21/11/2008 article under the title Força dos EUA no mundo diminuirá, diz inteligência americana (US Force in the world will decrease, says US intelligence). The text is as follows:

The Board of the US National Intelligence, part of Washington's security apparatus, published an impressive prediction. The international system as developed after World War II was, as expected, "unrecognizable" by 2025, thanks to globalization, the rise of emerging powers and "an historic transfer of relative wealth and economic power from the West to the East". In this publication we find that "the next 20 years of transition to a new system will be full of risks". "Strategic rivalries probably will revolve around trade, investments and technological innovation and acquisition, but we cannot rule out a 19th century scenario of arms race, territorial expansion and military rivalries”.

This report was written before the full force of financial and economic crisis become real. However, the authors were convinced that the unipolar moment of unchallenged US hegemony after the fall of the Berlin Wall was coming to an end. The future world order would be multipolar. China moves to become a dominant player in an International Monetary Fund and World Bank strengthened. China is currently the fastest growing country in the world, therefore, has excelled on the world geopolitical scene.

China has exercised great political influence, military and economic in the Asian and international scenario thanks to the great extension of its territory (ranked third in territorial dimension on the planet), high number of inhabitants (about 1.3 billion, the most populous the world) and the dynamism of its economy (the economy is currently showing the highest growth rates on the planet).

Meanwhile, the speed and boldness of China's global expansion follow surprising analysts and leaders from around the world. The country is becoming the first non-white

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society and non-European that will turn into a political, economic and global military superpower. And it seems that there will be no decrease in this trend. The XXI century will assist certainly the consolidation of the largest national State of the Far East, China, as the largest economic power, political and military in the world.

Everything suggests that in lieu of US global hegemony, there will be in the short term the construction of a multipolar world system under the joint leadership of China and the United States, a balance of power framework. This is because of the accumulation of capital in China is doing based on internal processes, but also based on something that is perfectly documented that is the displacement of a major part of the production of consumer goods sector of the United States to China. And this has much to do with the volume of trade and fiscal deficits of the United States.

But what happens in the bowels of China? In China internally ocurred a process of competition between capitals, which combined with processes of competition in the Chinese political apparatus and competition to attract foreign companies, resulted in the creation of huge production capacity process. This means that established new relations between the United States and China. Not already addresses most of the relationships of an imperialist power with a semi-colonial country. Based on the trade surplus, China accumulates millions and millions of dollars, which immediately lends to the United States. This is international relations of a completely new type.

China's economic impact, and now India, with the next combined population of 2.4 billion people, is already evident. China's population only is already higher than in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa combined. In addition, the giants are not alone. The rise of China and also India as world powers is as significant as the US, Germany, Japan and Russia took place in the late nineteenth century. Historically, the rise of emerging powers contributed to the intensification of economic competition and contradictions among the ruling classes of these countries triggering international conflicts as happened in 1914 with the outbreak of World War I and in 1939 with the advent of World War II.

The rise of China and India could trigger international insurmountable conflicts as in the past? The answer to this question depends on what might occur in interdependent economic relationship between China and the United States and the ability of both countries have to manage the world power condominium under their leadership and prevent outbreaks of international conflicts. On the other hand, the emergence of conflicts can happen if, in the current dominant powers in decline, occur destabilization policies resulting from the world capitalist system crisis and the rise to power of fascist warmongers and political sectors of difficult solution for world power condominium led by China and the United States.

In the contemporary era, the international geopolitical chess indicates the existence of three major players: the United States, China and Russia. From confrontation between these three major military powers may result alternative scenarios to the current that is characterized at the time by the US hegemony on the world stage since the end of the bipolar world that confronted the United States and the Soviet Union. Based on the three great protagonists of contemporary international geopolitical chess, it can be said that the United States aim to maintain its world hegemony in economic and military plans. To accomplish this, the US government strategies consist primarily of: 1) stop the rise of China as a hegemonic power in the world; and, 2) prevent Russia could rise to the status of global power or even regional power. In practice, the US government

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wants to avoid facing the future of two giants: China as a hegemonic power and reinvigorated Russia.

To stop the rise of China as a hegemonic power in the world, the US military strategy is focused on the Asia-Pacific region, without neglecting the Middle East to fight against terrorism, defend Israel, protect its oil interests and deal with the threat of Iran. As a US ally, Japan cooperates with the US strategy of "encirclement" of China strengthening its military power by 2020 [See the article Japão reforça estratégia militar para reagir à China (Japan reinforces military strategy to respond to China) published at <http: // www. portugues.rfi.fr/geral/20101217-japao-reforca-estrategia-militar-para-reagir-china>]. Another goal of the US military strategy is also pressing the alliance between Russia and China developing the NATO actions in Europe and the strengthening of its military bases in Japan, South Korea and Diego Garcia and the Pacific Fleet [See the article under the title Nueva estrategia militar global de Estados Unidos (New US global military strategy) by Ruiz Pereyra Faget published at <http://port.pravda.ru/mundo/11-01-2012/32735-estrategia_eua-0/>].

The XXI century is marking a qualitative change in the international system and the position occupied in it by the United States. No doubt that this change is closely associated with the emergence of China. To ascend to the hegemonic power condition of the planet, China will have to adopt 6 strategies: 1) to achieve high economic growth to overtake the United States; 2) to increase continuously its participation in international trade to lead it; 3) to remove the economic and military leadership of the United States in Asia, which means reaching the heart of US power in the region; 4) to prevent India become an autonomous pole of economic attraction in Asia, possibly in alignment with the United States; 5) to become essential power for peace in the Persian Gulf between Persians (Iran) and Arab (particularly Saudi Arabia) with the decline of US influence in the region; and 6) to strength economic and military alliance with Russia.

China is building a large naval force to control the Pacific Ocean with the immediate goal to halt the US military power in the Western Pacific. The Chinese are building a defensive force, including weapons that can reach US military targets. Chinese military spending will exceed the combined budgets of the twelve other major powers in Asia-Pacific [See the article by Michael Wines of the New York Times in Beijing under the title EUA e China procuram acordar estratégia militar (US and China seek to agree military strategy) published at <http: // www1 .folha.uol.com.br / world / 944,409-usa-and-china-looking strategy wake-militar.shtml>]. According to The Economist, China will surpass the military spending of the United States by 2025 [See the article by José Eustaquio Diniz Alves entitled EUA, China e Índia: disputa de hegemonia e destruição do meio ambiente (US, China and India: hegemony dispute and destruction of the environment) published on the site <http://www.ecodebate.com.br/2012/01/13/eua-china-e-india-disputa-de-hegemonia-e-destruicao-do-meio-ambiente-artigo-de-jose-eustaquio-diniz-alves/>].

Two great nuclear powers, Russia and India, may act to strengthen the position of China and the United States respectively. The military strategy of Russia provides for the resetting of the Army and Navy with the use of conventional and nuclear weapons in response to an attack on the country [See the article by Bruno Quadros e Quadros under the title A nova doutrina militar da Rússia: mais do mesmo? (The new military doctrine of Russia: more it?) published at

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<http://www.enciclopedia.com.pt/news.php?readmore=181>]. NATO expansion towards the Russian borders is the main danger outside the country. Russia would tend to support China in a conflict with the United States. India invests in the military to deal with their powerful neighbors, China and Pakistan, and internal security issues [See Article Índia é o maior importador de armas do mundo (India is the world's largest arms importer) published at <http://www.forte.jor.br/2011/03/24/india-eo-maior-importador-de-armas-do-mundo />]. India could come to support the US intervention in the region in confrontation with China.

On Russia, it is important to note that its strategic objectives are: 1) to defend itself from the threat to their territory represented by the United States and with NATO forces; 2) to strengthen its position as a supplier of natural gas to European Union countries; and 3) to achieve world power status lost with the demise of the Soviet Union. It is important to note that after the dismantling of the Soviet Union and the Eastern European socialist system, the US project was the occupation of the border territories of Russia, which had been under Soviet influence until 1991 [See the article by Numa Mazat and Franklin Serrano under the title A Geopolítica das Relações entre a Federação Russa e os EUA: da “Cooperação” ao Conflito (The Geopolitics of relations between the Russian Federation and the US: "Cooperation" to a conflict) posted on the website <http://www.revistaoikos.org/seer/index.php/oikos/article/view/293>].

According Mazat and Serrano, the occupation movement started by the Baltic, crossed Central Europe, Ukraine and Belarus, went through intervention in the Balkans (former Yugoslavia) and came to Central Asia and Pakistan, expanding NATO's borders. When finished the 1990s, the geopolitical distribution of new US military bases leaves no doubt about the existence of a new "sanitary belt", separating Germany from Russia and Russia from China. The arrival of Vladimir Putin to power would radically change this geopolitical framework, until then very unfavorable for Russia.

Mazat and Serrano also claim that the NATO intervention in Serbia in 1999, despite strong opposition from Russia, was perceived by the Russian people and their leaders as a threat to the security of the country. The bombing of Serbia showed clearly how the siege strategy organized by the United States and its allies, through the programmed feed NATO and the European Union in areas formerly controlled by the Soviet Union, could pose a danger to the sovereignty of Russia. The arrival of Vladimir Putin to power in Russia in 2000, marked the beginning of geopolitical recovery of Russia, whose position had been greatly weakened during the Yeltsin government in the 1990s. Putin is the rise to power of a solid and broad coalition of economic and political interests who united on the need to restore the operation of basic foundations of a modern capitalist state that surpass the wild and predatory phase of "primitive accumulation" in the Russian Federation.

The geopolitical recovery of Russia was made possible by the affirmation of a nationalist project of recovery of the Russian state by Putin, according Mazat and Serrano. The Russian leadership over the past decade, decided to concentrate their efforts on regaining a geopolitical dominion over the area of the former Soviet Union. They intended to make the old boundaries of the Soviet Union were respected, except for the Baltic countries. But the biggest concern of the Russians in terms of security comes from NATO's operations in the former Soviet bloc. Thus, Russia opposed vigorously in 2007 the anti-missile shield project that the Americans wanted to install in Central Europe (Poland, Czech Republic), through NATO. This missile shield supposed

27

to protect European members of NATO against the Iranian threat [See the article by Numa Mazat and Franklin Serrano under the title A Geopolítica das Relações entre a Federação Russa e os EUA: da “Cooperação” ao Conflito (The Geopolitics of relations between the Russian Federation and the US: "Cooperation" to a conflict) posted on the website <http://www.revistaoikos.org/seer/index.php/oikos/article/view/293>].

Numa Mazat and Franklin Serrano claim that the Russian leadership, in the 2000s, returned to give priority to the issue of the armed forces aimed at reversing the rapid decline of the military potential of the country during the 1990s. The purpose of this partial reconstitution of military power Russian was to provide a material base stronger to diplomatic strategy and geopolitics of Russia address the ongoing attempts to weaken the country by the United States and its European allies. In 2000, for the first time since 1992, the Russian Federation has increased its defense budget. In 2003, were delivered to the Russian Air Force the first fighter since 1992, as well as attack helicopters in 2004. In 2006, it began also to provide the Air Force's Sukhoi 34, new aircraft returned to long-distance attack. In an article published in February 2012, Vladimir Putin announced that Russia would spend 580 billion Euros in arms over the next ten years to modernize its army.

It was from 2000 that Russia decided to develop a strategic partnership with China. Russia considered that China could help her in her resistance to geopolitical ambitions of the United States both in Eastern Europe, the Caucasus or Central Asia. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (Shanghai Cooperation Organization - SCO) was established in 2001 to establish an alliance between Russia and China militarily and to combat terrorism, religious fundamentalism and separatism in the Asian region. The SCO is a political cooperation and military organization that explicitly proposes to be a counterweight to the United States and NATO military forces. Putin decided the last territorial disputes with China in 2004, making secure its eastern border. The two countries maintain generally converging positions in the UN and other international forums, such as the G20 [See the article by Numa Mazat and Franklin Serrano under the title A Geopolítica das Relações entre a Federação Russa e os EUA: da “Cooperação” ao Conflito (The Geopolitics of relations between the Russian Federation and the US: "Cooperation" to a conflict) posted on the website <http://www.revistaoikos.org/seer/index.php/oikos/article/view/293>].

Numa Mazat and Franklin Serrano say that the partnership between China and Russia there is also in the armaments industry. Throughout the 1990s, arms sales to China were essential to the survival of the Russian military-industrial complex. Russia remained the largest supplier of China's modern weapons in 2000 and was most recently Russian military technology transfer to the production of new Chinese weapons. In addition, the Chinese remain large customers Russian hydrocarbons. Finally, the strategic partnership between China and Russia is so fundamental to the two countries that differences about the energy issue, or other differences of interest, natural between two powers, however important they may be, have not been able to threaten the collaboration between two countries with respect to an attempt to limit the power of the United States.

In addition, Russia is today a major supplier of weapons to countries that want to maintain their independence from the United States, such as India. Similarly, nations suffering embargo on weapons by the United States as China, Venezuela or Iran make military purchases with Russia. Moreover, Russia remains a major global nuclear power

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alongside the United States. Unilateral sanctions that the United States has imposed on Russia due to their behavior in Ukraine and the threat of impose still more sanctions urged Russia's desire to find new markets for its gas and oil. and the threat of. On May 16, 2014, Russia and China announced the signing of a "treaty of friendship" contemplating an agreement on the gas, by which the two countries will build a pipeline to export Russian gas to China. China will lend money to Russia with which it will build its part of the pipeline. Gazprom (Russia's largest producer of gas and oil) made some price concessions to China [See the article by Immanuel Wallerstein O jogo geopolítico da Rússia e da China (The geopolitical game in Russia and China) published on the website <http://outraspalavras.net/posts/o- game-geopolitical-of-moscow-and-beijing />].

It should be noted that the gradual decline in oil prices since last June, accelerated in recent weeks to reach US$ 69 per barrel of Brent raises questions about the economy of Russia and other oil producing countries that are dependent on its export earnings. OPEC countries, which spent more than two years decreasing its production, thereby offsetting the increases in crude oil production by countries outside OPEC, changed their strategy since September and are increasing their production contributing to the fall in the price of oil in order to derail the oil substitutes such as shale. To this is added the US interest to achieve energy self-sufficiency with the shale through the application of fracking technology and the fall in world oil demand.

One hypothesis that has been considered is that the United States is behind the drop in oil prices to affect the economies of its enemy such as Russia, Iran and Venezuela. Because of the fall in oil prices, Russia is facing at the moment a violent speculative attack on the country with capital outflow which is resulting in a sharp drop in the purchasing power of the Ruble. It can be said that, from a geopolitical point of view, most likely, the United States put pressure not to increase the supply of oil. To make matters worse the situation, the epicenter of the global economic crisis, which first occurred in 2008 in the United States and moved to Europe between 2010 and 2013, is now focusing on emerging market economies, including China, which is slowing their economy, can lead to depression the world capitalist system depression. We hope that the confrontation between the US, China and Russia in the international geopolitical chess does not happen the exacerbation of conflicts leading to a new world fratricidal war.

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