world durum outlook - world pasta day 2017 board 2013/2 chris gillen.pdf · world durum outlook...
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World durum outlook Chris Gillen, Manager – Marketing & Sales Europe, Middle East and Africa, Latin America
Lisbon, June 2013
Durum market factors 2012-13
• World grains and oilseeds prices high throughout marketing year
• Durum fundamentals not supportive of substantial premium
• Global usage estimated at 35.6 million tonnes
• Global production estimated at 35.4 million tonnes
• Global stocks narrow year-on-year (consumption ahead of production)
• Seeded areas up in North America and EU vs 2011
• Big 3 (Canada, U.S., and EU) production up 9.6% year-on-year
• Canadian production up 9.2% year-on-year
• Global trade falls by 400 thousand tonnes to 7.1 million tonnes
Source: IGC, CWB
Looking Forward 2013-14
• World grains and oilseeds situation forecast as “relative abundance”
• Durum fundamentals remain un-supportive of substantial premium
• Global usage estimated at 35.8 million tonnes
• Global production estimated lower at 35.1 million tonnes
• Global ending stocks lower at 6.7 mmt (consumption ahead of
production)
• Seeded areas down in Canada, U.S., and EU
• Big 3 (Canada, U.S., and EU) production down 3.3% year-on-year
• Canada production forecast down 2 % year-on-year
• Global trade up unchanged at 7.1 million tonnes Source: IGC, CWB
Major Durum Producers (million tonnes)
EU - 27
Australia
Source: IGC, CWB
North Africa Mexico
World Production
Canada Turkey & Syria
U.S.A.
0.5 0.5 0.5
4.2 4.6 4.5
1.8 2.0 2.0
1.4 2.2 1.5 5.1 5.3 4.1
2013-14 35.1 MT 2012-13 35.4 MT 2011-12 36.7 MT
4.9 4.6 4.6
8.3 8.0 8.1
30.0
32.0
34.0
36.0
38.0
40.0
42.0
mill
ion
tonn
es
#VALUE! #VALUE!
Global durum production
Source: IGC, CWB
30.0
32.0
34.0
36.0
38.0
40.0
42.0
mill
ion
tonn
es
Production Consumption
Global durum production and consumption
Source: IGC, CWB
Ending Stocks: Canada, U.S., and EU-27
Source: IGC, CWB
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
(000
Ton
nes)
Canada U.S.A. EU-27
Weather Conditions: Planting issues Canada
Western Canadian production (5-year average, million tonnes)
Spring wheat – 16.85 Canola – 11.39 Barley – 9.17 Durum wheat – 4.35 Peas – 2.95 Winter wheat – 1.17
Durum growing area
Wheat growing area
Winter Precipitation Western Canada Precipitation
% of normal November 1, 2012 – May 26, 2013
Western Canada Precipitation % of normal
May 1 – May 30, 2013
Western Canada Precipitation (mm)
May 24 – May 30, 2013
0
20
40
60
80
100
20-apr 27-apr 4-mag 11-mag 18-mag 25-mag 1-giu 8-giu 15-giu 22-giu
Per c
ent c
ompl
ete
Western Canada Seeding Progress
2013 2012
Normal
Western Canada
Percent of CWAD Grading #1 & 2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Perc
ent
Average
Weather Conditions: Planting issues USA
North Dakota planting considerations
$6.80
$7.30
$7.80
$8.30
$8.80
$9.30
$9.80
$/bu
HRS Dec. 2013 Futures Spring wheat Insurance Durum Insurance Durum
North Dakota Seeding Weather
US Northern Plains Seeding Progress
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
4-apr 11-apr 18-apr 25-apr 2-mag 9-mag 16-mag 23-mag 30-mag 6-giu 13-giu 20-giu 27-giu
% P
lant
ed
North Dakota Durum Planting Progress
2013
2012
Avg.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
11-apr 18-apr 25-apr 2-mag 9-mag 16-mag 23-mag 30-mag 6-giu 13-giu 20-giu 27-giu
% P
lant
ed
Montana Durum Planting Progress
2011
2012
Avg.
US durum area (1,000 acres)
2,91
5
2,59
2
2,73
5
1,87
0 2,15
6
2,72
1
2,55
4
2,57
0
1,36
9
2,12
3
1,60
0
1,57
1
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Sow
n A
rea
Source: IGC, CWB
2012-13 Canadian durum: Export Summary
Canadian durum stocks (weekly)
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1,000.0
1,200.0
1+2 4 6 8 10
12
14
16
18
20
23
25
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
41
43
45
47
49
51
1,00
0 to
nnes
Stocks 2011-12 Stocks 2012-13 Stocks 5-year avg
Source: CGC, CWB
Canadian deliveries (weekly)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13
% d
eliv
ered
1,00
0 to
nnes
Deliveries To Be delivered % Delivered
Source: CGC, CWB
Canadian durum exports (year-to-date)
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13
% e
xpor
ted
1,00
0 to
nnes
Exports To Be exported % Exports
Source: CGC, CWB
Canadian durum exports (weekly)
0.0
500.0
1,000.0
1,500.0
2,000.0
2,500.0
3,000.0
3,500.0
4,000.0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49
1,00
0 to
nnes
Exports 2011-12 Exports 2012-13 Exports 5-year avg
Source: CGC, CWB
Canadian durum exports (yearly through April)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13
'000
Ton
nes
Crop Year
EU-27 Algeria Morocco Tunisia Japan Peru Venezuela U.S. Others*
Source: IGC, CWB
Canadian durum exports to EU-27 (yearly through April)
556 679
781 694
812
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13
'000
Ton
nes
Crop Year
Source: IGC, CWB
Canadian durum exports to North Africa (yearly through April)
532 292
110
423 623
375
356 589
358
594 205
123 42
256
76
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13
'000
Ton
nes
Crop Year
Algeria Morocco Tunisia Source: IGC, CWB
2013-14 Global durum outlook
Canada durum ending stocks
Source: IGC, CWB
1,7
74
2,4
87
3,2
73
1,2
57
809
2,0
03
2,6
94
1,5
66
1,4
86
1,2
89
1,1
31
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2003-04 2004-05 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2012-13 2013-14
(000
Ton
nes)
Canadian durum exports
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13* 2013-14**
'000
Ton
nes
Crop Year
EU-27 Algeria Morocco Tunisia Japan Venezuela U.S. Others
Source: IGC, CWB
678
1,0
02
1,0
77
498
152
608
869
874
685
792
735
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,00
0 to
nnes
US Durum Ending Stocks
Source: IGC, CWB
Durum fob prices
$320 $330 $340 $350 $360 $370 $380 $390 $400 $410 $420
US
$/to
nne
Thunder Bay 2 CWAD Duluth 2 HAD French Durum
Durum prices: relative to CWRS
$300
$320
$340
$360
$380
$400
$420
US
$/to
nne
Thunder Bay 2 CWAD Duluth 2 HAD Thunder Bay 2 CWRS 13.0
Durum versus HRS: U.S. elevator prices
-$1.60
-$1.40
-$1.20
-$1.00
-$0.80
-$0.60
-$0.40
-$0.20
$0.00
$0.20
$0.40
$6.80
$7.30
$7.80
$8.30
$8.80
$9.30
$9.80
$/bu
$/bu
HRS Durum Durum - HRS (per bushel)
Durum price forecast
$230
$250
$270
$290
$310
$330
$350
$370
2012-13 Forecast (May - Jun) July13
2013-14 Forecast (Jul - Aug) Sep13
2013-14 Forecast (Sept - Nov) Dec13
2013-14 Forecast (Dec - Feb) Mar14
2013-14 Forecast (Mar - Apr) May14
U.S
.$/to
nne
2 CWAD 13.0 TB (FOB) French Durum
Questions