wp2 - key european technology trajectories montpellier, 19 november 2003...

WP2 - Key European Technology Trajectories Montpellier, 19 November 2003

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Fistera RoadshowMontpellier, 19 November 2003

Fistera WP2 Results

Methodology and Technology Trajectories


PUSH vs PULL

It is a tangled world

Technology cannot be seen outside of context

i.e. if you want to assess its value!

Incremental vs Disruptive

Value is in understanding relationships

Existing vs Out of the blue

Technology Evolution & context


COMPROMISING ON 4

Technology

The FOUR LAYERS

Related to Information Society Basic vs Aggregate Technology Description for the lay-man

understand why it is relevant Is there value in investing? Leading, trailing…no hope?


COMPROMISING ON 4

Technology

The FOUR LAYERS

Functionality

What is needed

Why the capability is important

Showing tech. alternatives

Evolution over time


COMPROMISING ON 4

Technology

The FOUR LAYERS

Functionality

Service

Whose business is it?

What is the potential market?

How can it change over time?

Is it culturally related?

Is it “basic”?


COMPROMISING ON 4

Technology

The FOUR LAYERS

Functionality

Service

Ambient

What are the social implication?

What are the concerns?

Is life quality improving?

Who is benefiting?

What is the market size?

What can be the standard?

Is it location based?

How will it evolve?


Home Page

News

Contact us

Keep an eye on

Disruptions

Layers

Papers

References

Representation mechanisms


Layer

List of …

Year related today 2008 2020



Relationships


Within Layer

Across Layer

Type/Strenght impacts on uses enables enhanced by …

Geography


Looking for “x”

Disruptions, signpost

Disruption

Time


Looking for “x” in processing


?

Time

Mainframes

Mini

PC

PDA

Tablet PC

Smart Obj.GRID


Looking for “x” in telecommunication


?

Time

ElectromechSwitches

Routers BridgesAdd/Drop

ElectronicSwitches

- Mesh Ntw- SwRadio- Autonomic Systems


Looking for “x” in health care


?

Time

UnderstandingSymptoms

UnderstandingCauses

UnderstandingSpecificity



Disruptions, signpostTime

UnderstandingSpecificity

Human Genoma

Drug synthesesFast Mapping

Symbioses

MonitoringBio-Substitution



Disruptions, signpostTime

Human Genoma

Drug synthesesFast Mapping

Symbioses

MonitoringBio-Substitution

Wet WareBio PrintingSensors – U.Acc.Hi.Sp. ProcessingMolecular comp.


Technologies Trajectories

Technologies Identified

Technology Trajectories

Disruptions

Building the future


Technologies Identified

What is a Technology?

Technology Clusters

Functionalities



Technologies identified

Chip Evolution(xHz; Hyperthread, Bus; W, …)

Lithographic Process(Masking, nm, Wafer size,…)

Assembling(Pins, Contact,…)

Packaging(Soldering, Casing,…)

Manufacturing(Clean Room, Vibration,…)

Design(CAD, Clock ,…)



Technologies identified

Quantum Communications

Maxwell Equations(Statistical Modeling,…)

Quantum Applications

Secure Communications

Photon Modeling

Detector


Behavior Technologies

Technologies CLUSTERS

Affective Computing Agents Avatar


Coding Technologies

MPEG Public Key Cryptography



Communications Technologies

3G Bluetooth Cable TV network Digital Cell. Base stations Galileo GPS Modems Optical Fibre Passive Distribution Ntw Power Line Transmission

Radio Connectivity Rings Satellite Software Radio Trunk xDSL UWB WiFi WPAN Home Networking



Devices Technologies

3D Printers bio-printers Cell phones CRT Digital Video Recorder e-books Flat Screen LCD Information Appliances Notebooks PDA

Personal Computers Printers Projection Displays Robot Scanner



Power Technologies

Batteries ZnMg batteries Fuel Cells Solar Cells …

Micro piezoelectric



Processing Technologies

Digital Signal Processing Distributed Processing Graphic Processing GRID Computing Microprocessor Mobile Processing Molecular Computing Quantum Computing Software

Voice syntheses - recognition



Storage Technologies

Distributed Storage DRAM Hard Disk Optical Disk Read Only Memory

Holographic Memory Polymer Memory Silicon Based Memory

Semantic Data Base



Terminal points Technologies

Active Tags Beacons Bio-Marker Bio-electronics Bio-metrics Digital Camera Sensors e-ink Gesture capturing Haptic Interfaces Holography Intelligent antenna

MEMS Micro delivery chip Nanotechnologies OLED Optical Tags Passive Tags Sensors Wet-ware



Functionalities

3D Imaging Broadband Communications Data Capture Encryption Gaming Platforms Gaming Storage Human Interfacing Image Recognition Information Coding Information Displaying Information Retrieval

Functionalities

Interactivity Language Understanding Micro Embedding Multimode Personal Identification Pin Pointing Printing Atoms Processing Profiling Security Shadowing Storage Virtual Presence Wearable


Technologies Trajectories

Storage Processing Information Visual Display Printing Information Retrieval Communications Bandwidth Human Interfacing Data Capturing Pin Pointing


Technologies Trajectories Storage

ROM

Read/Write memories

Storage Infrastructures


Storage - ROM

Trajectories

Silicon based Towards 13 nm, 100s GB

Support processing, appliances, Entertainment

Today: Japan, Korea, Taiwan Tomorrow: USA on the rise (SOC)


electrods

electrods

polymerThinFilm

Storage - ROM

Trajectories

Silicon based Polymer memory

TBs capacity

Entertainment, Education, References

Today: Europe Tomorrow: ?


Storage - ROM

Trajectories

Silicon based Polymer memory Holographic memory

TBs capacity

Entertainment, Education, References

Today: USA Tomorrow: USA, East Asia


Storage – Read / Write

Trajectories

Silicon based

GB – 100s of GB

Entertainment, SIM

Today: Japan, Korea, Taiwan Tomorrow: Changes unlikely.

SoC & SIM an important area for Europe



Trajectories

Silicon based Hard disks

R/W heads Magnetic Substrate

Today: USA Tomorrow: Changes unlikely.



Trajectories

Silicon based Hard disks Optical Storage

TBs

Massive Parallel search

Today: USA Tomorrow: Open field



Trajectories

Silicon based Hard disks Optical Storage Nano Storage

Very High Density

Today: USA Tomorrow: Open field


Storage – Infrastructure

Trajectories

Local Storage

from PB to EB 40Tbps interconnection matrix by 2010

Today: USA Tomorrow: USA, Japan



Trajectories

Local Storage Distributed Storage

Data Grid Mostly Scientific and Institutional Applications

Today: USA, Europe, Japan Tomorrow: no changes expected



Trajectories

Local Storage Distributed Storage Synchronised Storage

Micro and Macro storage Personal area networks, Personal Virtual Ambient Business environment Network(s) environment

Today: USA Tomorrow: open field


Technologies Trajectories Processing

…for Calculus

…for capturing information

…for the display of information

…for communications

Trajectories


Processing - …for Calculus

Trajectories

Microprocessors

Following Moore’s law>>> 28 GHz by next decade

Embedded in “any” object in the next decade Today: USA Tomorrow: unlikely to change



Trajectories

Microprocessors Supercomputers

Massive parallel architectures>>> 100 PFLOPS by 2010>>> EFLOPS by the next decade

Scientific and Institutional application Today: USA, Japan Tomorrow: unlikely to change



Trajectories

Microprocessors Supercomputers GRID Processing

Peaking by the end of this decade

Scientific and Institutional application Gaming and communities Today: USA, Europe Tomorrow: unlikely to change


Processing - …for capturing information

Trajectories

Microprocessors

low power consumption for sensors

Embedded in “any” object in the next decade Today: USA Tomorrow: open field


Processing - …for capturing information

Trajectories

Microprocessors Digital Signal Processing

low power consumption for sensors

Embedded in “any” object in the next decade Today: USA Tomorrow: unlikely to change


Processing - …for the display of information

Trajectories

Graphic Microprocessors

Billions of polygons per second by 2010. Demands level over 100 Bpps

Embedded in microprocessors in the next decade Today: USA, Japan Tomorrow: Japan


Processing - …for the display of information

Trajectories

Graphic Microprocessors Television image processing

Converging monitor and television

Embedded in the screen in the next decade Today: Japan, Korea Tomorrow: open field


Processing - …for Communications

Trajectories

Microprocessors

Growth in speed and decreased consumption Direct optical interfacing Microprocessor on SIM

Today: USA, Japan, Europe Tomorrow: unlikely to change


Processing Power penetration

As cost go down: 1950 - 1970 Mainframe 1970 - 1984 Mini 1985 - 2000 PC 1995 - …. Low perf: Embedded 2003 April : 1 billion microprocess produced by Intel 2008 - …. Medium perf: embedded 2020 - …. All embedded

Trajectories


Microprocessor evolution challenges

Technology challenges: Quantum effect on electrons Synchronization clock Heat dispersion X ray lithography Interchip bus – pins

Economic challenges Fabrication plant cost ROI (volume related)

Trajectories


Microprocessor evolution challenges

Paradigm challenges: Molecular (and DNA) computing Quantum Computer

Systemic challenges Communications Battery power

Trajectories


Processing Power leadership

Leading edge: 1950 - 1990 Custom 1990 - 2004 Intel, …AMD…. 2005 - 2010 Sony ? , Multi cluster Intel….? 2010 - …. GRID? Power as Commodity?

US leading till now Japan on the rise Europe out of the game. Is it a problem?

if evolution is towards embedding it is a BIG PROBLEM

Trajectories


Technologies Trajectories Information Visual Display

Screen based information display

Projection based information display

Symbiotic information display

Trajectories


Display – Screen based

CRT

Fading away, the smaller the sooner Significant market share till 2006 /

usage share till 2010-2012 residentialusage share till 2008 in the office

Today: Europe, USA, East Asia Tomorrow: nil

Trajectories



CRT Flat screen technologies (LCD, SED, Plasma)

Winning the market for the form factor Growing market share over CRT (except Plasma)

Breakthrough in production (SED like) expected

Entertainment (leading innovation), Office,…

Today: East Asia, USA with production in Asia Tomorrow: East Asia

Trajectories



CRT Flat screen technologies (LCD, SED, Plasma) Micro screen technologies (OLED, small LCD)

Growing market in the low tiers

Niche markets: entertainment, gaming, cellphones now, many small devices next

Today: Japan,Korea, USA lagging behind Tomorrow: unlikely to change

Trajectories



CRT Flat screen technologies (LCD, SED, Plasma) Micro screen technologies (OLED, small LCD) Nano-Emission Display (NED)

Rising in the last part of this decade HiDef television in the next decade (Plasma Killer)

Today: USA, East Asia (research) Tomorrow: open field

Trajectories



CRT Flat screen technologies (LCD, SED, Plasma) Micro screen technologies (OLED, small LCD) Nano-Emission Display (NED) e-Ink

Niche market in this decade, might expand Paper business related

Today: USA, Japan Tomorrow: Japan, USA in more complex devices

Trajectories



CRT Flat screen technologies (LCD, SED, Plasma) Micro screen technologies (OLED, small LCD) Nano-Emission Display (NED) e-Ink Smart Materials

Niche market early next this decade, might expand Variety of potential applications

Today: USA, Japan (research) Tomorrow: USA, Japan

Trajectories


Display – Projection based

LCD Projectors

Mostly a business/office market Retro projection also in consumer market but it will

fade away under competition of Flat Screen

Today: Japan, USA Tomorrow: Japan, USA

Trajectories



LCD Projectors Micro Projectors

Impact by the end of this decade. Suits mobile devices (battery constraints)

Strong competition from symbiotic displays

Today: USA (research) Tomorrow: Japan, USA

Trajectories



LCD Projectors Micro Projectors Holographic Projectors

Unless a breakthrough happens within 2008 it will fade away under competition of other systems.

Niche market (rather a curiosity market)

Today: USA, Japan Tomorrow: USA, Japan

Trajectories



LCD Projectors Micro Projectors Holographic Projectors Laser on “fog”

Larger and cheaper by the end of this decade

Niche market (rather a curiosity market) todaymight expand in the next decade

Today: USA Tomorrow: USA, Japan

Trajectories


Display – Symbiotic

Laser based

Projection on retina. Increased wear ability in the last part of this decade. Normal in the next.

Niche market (blind, some gamers, pilots, surgeons,…)

Today: USA Tomorrow: USA

Trajectories



Laser based Retinal Implants

Tied to evolution of bio electronics. Significant results to be expected by the end of this

decade with major evolution in the next one.

Niche market (certain kinds of blind people)


Trajectories



Laser based Retinal Implants Cortical Implants

Tied to evolution of bio electronics and cognitive science. Significant results by the end of this decade; major evolution in the next one. Competing with retinal implants in this

decade; no competition in the next Niche market (certain kinds of blind people) Today: USA (research) Tomorrow: USA

Trajectories


Technologies Trajectories Printing

Paper-like printing

Object printing

Biological printing

Trajectories


Printing – Paper-like

ink-jet

printing definition exceeds demand by 2008…in general quality will exceed demand

micro printing, water marking – end of this decade

consumer market (and business)

Today: USA, Japan; Europe lagging behind Tomorrow: Japan, USA; Europe?

Trajectories



ink-jet laser printing

price decreasing, still higher than ink-jet minor interest to micro printing and water marking

because of tag use in the business env.

mostly used in the business environment

Today: Japan, USA Tomorrow: unlikely to change

Trajectories



ink-jet laser printing thermal printing

low resolution, unlikely to increase significantly tampering robustness challenged by water marking

and tag by the end of the decade

mostly used in the business environment

Today: no significant research going on Tomorrow: unlikely to change

Trajectories



ink-jet laser printing thermal printing electromagnetic printing (e-ink)

will increase resolution, colors, switching timebut unlikely to reach ink-jet, laser quality

wireless update of information by end of decade

competing with some low end display technology

Today: USA (products, research), Japan (research) Tomorrow: Japan, USATrajectories


Printing – Objects

laser printing

lower cost by the end of this decade, not cheap

professional market; unlikely to change niche applications, mock up, education

Today: USA Tomorrow: USA, ?

Trajectories



laser printing layered printing

by the end of this decade: lower cost, faster printing,broader range of “inks”, integration with robots

professional market; consumer market possible by the end of the next decade impacts on design, production, distribution

Today: USA Tomorrow: open field

Trajectories



laser printing layered printing self assembling

increase in “productivity” with real industrial products early next decade seamless integration of self assembling into robotic production processes

NED screens, nano scale memories…

Today: USA Tomorrow: USA, Japan, ?

Trajectories


Printing – Biological material

2D printing

increase in “productivity” with real industrial products second half this decade better tissue structuring

skin (almost available), muscle (next decade)…

Today: USA Tomorrow: USA, Europe?

Trajectories


Printing – Biological material

2D printing 3D printing

creation of complex scaffolds (end of this decade) multiple tissue and structure printing (next decade)

3D tissues (early next decade), organs (?)

Today: USA (research) Tomorrow: USA, Europe?

Trajectories


Technologies Trajectories Information Retrieval

How much information?

Variety of the information

Semantics of the information

Access to information

Semantics of the retrieval of information

Trajectories


Information Retrieval – How much info?

0

5

10

15

20

25

Year 2000

Music

Books

Mags

Movies

DVD

Newsp.

WWW

Trajectories

TB



Trajectories

TB


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Year 2000

Music

Books

Mags

Movies

DVD

Newsp.

WWW

Office

Radio

Television

e-Mail

Home Video

Photos

Telephone


Trajectories

PB


Information Retrieval – Variety

Trajectories

Textual Information

Evolution towards the association of context Retrieval evolves to take context into account

by the next decade context will be the main“search” criteria.

Textual search likely to fade away by the end of the next decade

Today: USA, Europe Tomorrow: unlikely to change



Trajectories

Textual Information Image Information

More sophisticated tagging (automatic) by the end of this decade

From retrieval through tagging to understanding of the image and its components (next decade)




Trajectories

Textual Information Image Information Video Information

Similar evolution path of image retrieval Retrieval based on the tagging of reaction of viewers Plot understanding unlikely before 2020

Today: USA (security related research) Tomorrow: USA, Japan (animation tech. Research)



Trajectories

Textual Information Image Information Video Information Sound Information

Mostly based on tagging, retrieval of specific sounds. Unlikely to change.

Very little research being done.

Today: Japan, USA Tomorrow: Japan, USA



Trajectories

Textual Information Image Information Video Information Sound Information Voice Information

Tied to voice recognition tech. for textual based retrieval. 99% rec. By 2010.

Voice based retrieval by the end of next decade.Tied to cognitive science, context underst.

Today: Europe, Japan, USA Tomorrow: Europe, Japan, USA


Information Retrieval – Info Semantics

Trajectories

Tagged Information

Evolution towards automatic tagging. International standardization groups for tagging

Today: Europe, Japan, USA (vertical industries) Tomorrow: Europe, Japan, USA



Trajectories

Tagged Information Interpreted Information

Piggy back on tags (where available) + info understanding. Semantics associated to the information and in

relationships (created when info is stored).

Today: Europe, USA Tomorrow: USA, Europe (may lag behind)



Trajectories

Tagged Information Interpreted Information Semantic Web

Focus on relationships (previously created and determined in the retrieval process)

International forum.

Evolution based on basic tech. + more context

Today: Europe, East Asia, USA (slightly ahead) Tomorrow: USA, East Asia, Europe ?


Information Retrieval – Access

Trajectories

Keypad

Fit for textual information or tagged ones Widely used, it will remain so. Wider use of handwritten queries as handwriting

recognition improves.

Today: no significant research going on Tomorrow: unlikely to change



Trajectories

Keypad Click

Evolution towards “personalized clicks” Widely used, it will remain so. Progress in image recognition will further stimulate

click based retrieval Gesture capture (eyes, hands...) as click

Today: USA, Japan Tomorrow: unlikely to change



Trajectories

Keypad Click Voice

Increasingly used but it will not kill other access Voice interpretation adds semantics to the query in

the second part of the next decade.

Persons with disabilities, security and safety appl. Social applications requires institutional funding

Today: Europe, USA Tomorrow: unlikely to change



Trajectories

Keypad Click Voice Deferred

Asynchronous and mediated retrieval. Will see a significant growth in the next decade.

Agent based technologies and Profiling.

Significant service opportunities (consumer, Biz)

Today: USA (mostly research) Tomorrow: open field


Information Retrieval – Retrieval Semantics

Trajectories

Context dependent information

Increase in the query “span” and in answer “filtering” provides great value beyond 2008 “Sensing” by 2008, “understanding” beyond 2015

Significant service opportunities (consumer, Biz)




Trajectories

Context dependent information Agent based retrieval

Agent performing trivial tasks but also increasingly using understanding on the query International forum on agent interfacing

Applications in vertical segments (e-citizen, …)




Trajectories

Context dependent information Agent based retrieval Personalization of information

Significant evolution by 2008. Strong impact in the next decade.

Evolution continues in the next decade on the level of intelligence in the personalization.

Person + context based in the next decade - SIM - WPAN

Today: USA, Europe (tailing close) Tomorrow: open field



Trajectories

Context dependent information Agent based retrieval Personalization of information Negotiation of information

Slow evolution conditioned by level of trust Widespread application in the next decade with

significant impact from 2015 on. Likely to be used in the interim as “assistant”

Evolution Today: USA, Europe Tomorrow: USA, Europe


Technologies Trajectories Communications

Paradigms

Evolution of connectivity

Transmission related technologies / infrastructures


Communications - Paradigms

Trajectories

Broadcast

Television



Trajectories

Broadcast

Time Sharing



Trajectories

Broadcast

Time Sharing

Client Server



Trajectories

Broadcast

Time Sharing

Client Server

Peer to Peer



Trajectories

Broadcast

Time Sharing

Client Server

Peer to Peer

Cluster to cluster



Trajectories

Broadcast

Time Sharing

Client Server

Peer to Peer

Cluster to cluster

Sticker


Communications - Connectivity Evolution

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

Demand(Gigabits)

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Year end

P rivate/IP LC

IDDD

Internet/IP

MDNS/Frame/X.25

ATM & IP Switching

Trajectories



Wire is better than wireless (technically)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

1988

1989

1990

1991 1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

Gig

abit

s

Trajectories



Wire is better than wireless (technically) Wireless is better than wired (humans)

Trajectories



Wire is better than wireless (technically) Wireless is better than wired (humans) Flatter networks

Till 1980ies Electromechanical Exchanges 1980- 2000 Electronic exchanges 2000 - … Router, Bridges, Add Drop… 2015 - … Full optical networks? 2020 - … Mesh Networks, Terminals Networks?

Trajectories


Communications – Tech. / Infrastructures

Trajectories

wire-based transmission

Top Speed: 10s TB by 2010, 100s by 2020

Evolution: optoelectronics, optical switching, autonomic systems

Metropolitan networks: ring > star >> mesh

Today: USA (leading), Japan, Europe Tomorrow: ?



Trajectories

wire-based transmission wireless based transmission

Architectural evolution towards a mix of technologies

Software Radio, UWB Picocells by 2008

Interference managed by terminals (?) 2020

Today: Europe, USA, Japan (all leading…) Tomorrow: USA (leading?), Europe, Japan, China ?



Trajectories

wire-based transmission wireless based transmission Switching technologies

switching, routers/bridges

Switching in terminals and network edges

Optical switching (?) in the next decade

Today: USA, Japan (research), Europe (lagging) Tomorrow: USA, Japan, Europe


Technologies Trajectories Bandwidth

Transport technologies

Edge technologies

Terminal technologies

Trajectories


Bandwidth – Transport Technologies

Trajectories

Wire-based local loop Copper based

Leveling out by end of this decade, 100s Mbps Losing out to fiber in the next decade

Entertainment, Internetting, Always on services

Today: Korea, Japan, Europe, USA Tomorrow: Europe, USA (K&J will swap to fiber)



Trajectories

Wire-based local loop Copper based Fiber based Niche penetration in this decade, slowly substituting copper in the next one Different strategies in different environments

Architecture evolution (PON, Star, Mesh…)

Entertainment, Internetting, Always on services

Today: Japan, USA, Europe Tomorrow: open field



Trajectories

Wire-based local loop Copper based Fiber based Coaxial cable based Depends on status of existing cable TV infrastr. Strong competition from xDSL in most markets

Entertainment, Internetting (problems for up-link)

Today: USA, Japan & Europe (in specific areas) Tomorrow: declining



Trajectories

Wire-based local loop Wireless local loop

WiFi cluster

spreading out through this this decade, 100s Mbps Competition with UWB in the next decade in home

environment

Internetting, home connectivity

Today: USA, others are followers Tomorrow: unlikely to change, but for emergence

of Korea



Trajectories


WiFi cluster Pulse based cluster from 2008 on, 480 Mbps Winning competition with WiFi and Bluetooth in

the next decade in home environment

home connectivity, pico-cells, sensors networks

Today: USA, others are followers Tomorrow: USA, Europe ?



Trajectories


WiFi cluster Pulse based cluster LMDS like

focused application in this decades, mostly Biz possible extension in the next decade

Connectivity in the last mile(s)




Trajectories


WiFi cluster Pulse based cluster LMDS like Cellular 2G and 3G likely to coexist for next 10 years Software radio as disruption, 4G?

Broadband (limited) on the move

Today: Japan, Europe, USA Tomorrow: open field



Trajectories


WiFi cluster Pulse based cluster LMDS like Cellular Satellite Marginal, focused contribution Broadband to isolated spots Today: USA Tomorrow: USA, China ?


Bandwidth – Edge technologies

Trajectories

GRID

Increasing speed overcoming protocol limits

High speed for niche applications, extending the offer to some business in the next decade

Today: USA Tomorrow: USA, Japan ?, Europe ?


Bandwidth – Edge Technologies

Trajectories

GRID Mirroring

Increasing importance affecting ntwk.architectures

Research in the network architecture, mirroring, shadowing, data relations

Today: USA Tomorrow: USA, Europe ? (risk lagging behind)


Bandwidth – Terminal Technologies

Trajectories

Cashing

Common practice by the end of this decade, significant impact in the next one

Seamless cashing through discontinuous networks

Research on SW, profiling, artificial intelligence



Bandwidth – Terminal Technologies

Trajectories

Cashing Local storage

Common by this decade end

Impact on network architectures (transaction traffic and burst traffic) and Biz models



Technologies Trajectories Human Interfacing

Trajectories

Human to human interfacing

Human to machine interfacing


Human Interfacing – Human to Human

Trajectories

Real time translation

Getting out of prototyping stage by decade end Significant impact in the next decade No substitution on sight of the human translator

Research in voice recognition, profiling, language understanding, AI, cognitive science, agents

Today: USA, Japan, Europe Tomorrow: unlikely to change. USA may take a

stronger lead.



Trajectories

Real time translation Expert to layperson

Prototypes early next decade, applications in the second half.

Research in expert systems, machine understanding, cognitive science




Trajectories

Real time translation Expert to layperson Avatar to people communication

Autonomous avatar by the end of this decade Delegation may take place later in the next one

Research on rendering, affective computing, plus advances in basic computational technologies

Today: USA, Japan (for enabling tech) Tomorrow: USA, Japan, ?


Human Interfacing – Human to Machine

Trajectories

Human-like interface

Significant progress but will not dominate the communication paradigm

Dominate only in focused areas (next decade)

Research on rendering, affective computing

Today: USA, Japan (for enabling tech) Tomorrow: USA, Japan, ?



Trajectories

Human-like interface Interaction Design

Significant contribution by the last part of this decade, from niches to all products/services

Research in cognitive science, pragmatics, human observation, engineering

Need to create and Interaction Design culture

Today: USA, Europe, Japan Tomorrow: unlikely to change



Trajectories

Human-like interface Interaction Design Ambient mediated interfacing

First applications by the end of this decade Profound impact in the next one By 2020 AMI will be the norm

Research as in other areas of HI plus on intelligent ambient, cooperating objects.

Today: USA, East Asia (research) Tomorrow: USA, Japan, Europe


Technologies Trajectories Data Capturing

Trajectories

From Atoms to Bits

Identifying objects

Capture meaning

Sensing the environment

Networking the environment


Data Capturing – From Atoms to Bits

Trajectories

Capturing shapes 2D surfaces

A commodity today for A3 size and smaller Much larger scanning through laser technologies

targeted to Biz, unlikely to decrease in price Satellite photography will become a commodity

Today: USA, Japan Tomorrow: unlikely to change



Trajectories

Capturing shapes 2D surfaces 3D objects

Evolution in devices, processes and algorithms Laser, aerophotogrammes, spaced satellite photos

Targeted to Biz, will remain costly




Trajectories

Capturing shapes 2D surfaces 3D objects movements Evolution in devices, processes and algorithms Multiple video cameras and contour recognition Haptic interfaces

Targeted to Biz, will remain costly, cheap applications in gaming, education and training

Today: USA (mostly), Europe, Japan (gaming) Tomorrow: unlikely to change



Trajectories

Capturing shapes Capturing writing

From “Graffiti” to normal writing by end of decade “Scribbling” remains a problem well into next one

Research profiling, context understanding

Today: USA Tomorrow: unlikely to change.



Trajectories

Capturing shapes Capturing writing Capturing sounds

Improved capacity to discriminate sound and isolate sources.

Melodies and voice identification by end of decade

Security concerns drive research for timbre recognition, identification (next decade in a non controlled environment)

Today: USA, Japan, Europe Tomorrow: USA (stronger lead), Europe, Japan.



Trajectories

Capturing shapes Capturing writing Capturing sounds Capturing sensations

Touch, acceleration, smell, taste… Better accuracy, less cumbersome, cheaper

Evolution of haptic, bio-electronics, laser sensing,…

Biz applications and mass market

Today: USA (leading), Japan Tomorrow: USA (Biz), Japan (consumer market)


Data Capturing – Identifying Objects

Trajectories

Reading tags

Increase reach, parallel reading, spotting Significant impact in the next decade

Reader embedded in many devices (cellphones)

Research in microelectronics, radio propagation, software (profiling)

Today: USA; Japan & Europe (lagging behind) Tomorrow: unlikely to change.



Trajectories

Reading tags Bio-identification

Evolution towards more practical ways of capture data.

A common way of identification in the next decade Research under security concern pressure

Today: USA, Japan, Europe Tomorrow: USA may take a strong lead.



Trajectories

Reading tags Bio-identification Spotting

Evolution towards more accuracy and spotting in complex environments

Available to institution early next decade. To service provider for consumers by its end. Groundbreaking research in LifeLog

Today: USA, Europe Tomorrow: USA will take a strong lead.


Data Capturing – Capture “meaning”

Trajectories

Capturing emotions

Infancy stage today will evolve significantly in the next decade: evolution towards easier

capture, cheap sensors, quick response time Capturing of images (moving/still), aural, context and motion data. Bio-parameters

Research in AI, cognitive science, profiling

Today: USA, Japan Tomorrow: USA leading in applications, Japan

leading in capturing devices



Trajectories

Capturing emotions Tracking “attention”

first applications in the second part of this decade Evolution towards less cumbersome settings, higher accuracy, context evaluation

Application in safety, education, training…

Today: USA Tomorrow: USA benefiting from strong funding to

security related research



Trajectories

Capturing emotions Tracking “attention” Voice understanding

Viable in the first part of the next decade Evolution towards better understanding of context

and comprehensive understanding in a “normal” environment Research in complex systems relations Today: USA, Japan Tomorrow: USA may take a stronger lead thanks

to security related research funded


Data Capturing – Sensing the Environment

Trajectories

Scalar parameters

More and more variety of sensors’ capabilities One chip for sensing, processing, communicating In the next decade flexibility with SW Radio

Research in basic electronics, bio, mesh networks

Today: USA, Japan, Europe Tomorrow: unlikely to change. USA may take a

stronger lead.



Trajectories

Scalar parameters Vector parameters

Evolution parallel the scalar sensors. Vector indication derived from outside in this

decade, from within in the next decade

Research electronics, mesh networks, …

Today: USA, Japan, Europe Tomorrow: unlikely to change. USA may take the

lead.



Trajectories

Scalar parameters Vector parameters Bio-sensing

Evolution toward better accuracy, easier integration In the next decade sensors will interact with the environment Research in bio-electronics, biology, engineering

Today: USA Tomorrow: unlikely to change.


Data Capturing – Networking the Environment

Trajectories

Sensors’ networks

Ongoing research. First autonomous networks by the end of this decade.

Evolution towards increased local processing and adaptability. Smart dust beyond 2015.

Leverage on sensors evolution.

Research in autonomous systems

Today: USA Tomorrow: USA likely to continue to lead.


Data Capturing – Networking the Environment

Trajectories

Sensors’ networks Track-and-follow networks

Clustering a variety of technologies. Evolution towards better accuracy in wider environments. Research in image recognition, coordination of

communication environments…

Applications in security, monitoring, safety….

Today: USA, Japan, Europe Tomorrow: USA may take a stronger lead.


Technologies Trajectories Pin Pointing

Trajectories

Location awareness

Tracking


Pin Pointing – Location Awareness

Trajectories

Satellite based

GPS, Glonass, Galileo Evolution in the receiver part: cheaper, embedded Cost no more an issue beyond 2015

Applications in security, monitoring, safety….

Today: USA, Europe Tomorrow: Europe may levarage on Galileo to

take a strong lead. US “based” chips



Trajectories

Satellite based Cell based

Cellular, WiFi, UWB, Beacons: mostly indoor

Cost free on the receiving end

Applications in education, tourism…

Today: Europe, Japan Tomorrow: Europe, Japan, USA?



Trajectories

Satellite based Cell based Tag based

Location provided by tag or by tag related info Evolution in the tag readers

Applications in production and delivery processes

Today: USA, Japan, Europe Tomorrow: unlikely to change


Pin Pointing – Tracking

Trajectories

Tag based

Bar code replacement by end of this decade Evolution towards cheaper prices (1 c by the end

of this decade)

Applications in production processes, delivery, controlled environment (e.g. health care)




Trajectories

Tag based Satellite based

Combine with communication return link Evolution towards decreasing cost of the receiver/transponder, miniaturization.

Applications in security, monitoring, safety, distribution chain….

Today: USA Tomorrow: USA, Europe may take leadership.



Trajectories

Tag based Satellite based Image based

Spotting, (identification), tracking Evolution towards interpretation of “behavior”,

feasibility in complex environmentResearch in image recognition, Artificial intelligence, coordination of communication environments… Today: USA, Japan Tomorrow: USA may take a stronger lead.


Disruptions

Transformation of Products into Services

The Disappearance of the Computer

Ubiquitous seamless connectivity

Changing Traffic Patterns

Infinite Bandwidth

Disposable Products

Autonomous Systems

From Content to Packaging

The emergence of Virtual Infrastructures


From Products to Services



Technological Enabling Factors

Embedding of communications capabilities Rising of profiling Cheaper production processes




Market Driven Factors

Products becoming commodities Loss of differentiation capabilities Increased copycat possibilities





Industry Impact

Transformation into service companies Shortening of products’ life cycle Strong increase in call centers Automated customised assistance Increased globalisation of the market Restructuring of the value chain





Industry Impact

Market Sectors Affected

Health care Entertainment Transportation Consumer appliances Education …





Industry Impact


Likeliness to happen

Disruption is already occurring Connectivity bundled as a service feature Appliance bundled in connectivity


DisruptionsThe Disappearance of the Computer




Diminished cost System on Chip Wearable Computers Increase in connectivity and ubiquitous access





Need to increase volumes Need to increase flexibility Need to provide easier use





Industry Impact

Skill to exploit processing capability in any object New level of competences required New actors in the value chain





Industry Impact

Market sectors affected

Appliances Household environment Transportation Security Environment Information Retrieval …





Industry Impact

Market sectors affected


Thresholds of processing power >> starting 2005 Dramatic cost reduction >> early next decade Final demise of the PC >> beyond 2015


DisruptionsUbiquitous Seamless Connectivity


Increased connection capabilities for any object Variety of Infrastructures WPAN Software Radio





Mature market moving towards flat rate Demand for transparency Bundling communication into services & goods





Industry Impact

Shift from connectivity to service Bundling of services Seamless Service Hopping Crucial importance of profiling Embedded connectivity demand Increasing opportunities to offer new services





Industry Impact


Communications providers Goods producers Resellers areas, malls, shops…





Industry Impact



A “sure thing”: not if but when and how


DisruptionsChanging Traffic Patterns


Huge amount of local storage Sensors, tags Digital camcorders, cameras… Agent communications





Growth of peer to peer Flat rate and always on





Industry impact

Push towards the transition from ADSL to VDSL Transition towards an optical access Always on wireless connectivity





Industry impact


Telecom Operators Advertisement





Industry impact



Asynchronous traffic patterns Bottlenecks in the metropolitan network Wireless traffic


DisruptionsInfinite Bandwidth (on wireless)

Measuring vs perceiving Bandwidth

Fixed lines – Backbones – local loop

Wireless – untethered connectivity

Local storage




Advances in theoretical studies on propagation Terminals as network nodes Cognitive Radio Software Radio Mesh Networks





Need for ubiquitous connectivity Emergence of a variety of local operators Great variety in traffic demand





Industry Impact

Incumbent Mobile Operators New Mobile Operators Service and Product industry Regulatory Framework





Industry Impact


Wearable Devices Any Mobile Object Healthcare Education Environment monitoring ….





Industry Impact



Increased spectrum availability Unlimited bandwidth capacity


Five Challenges

De-localized Innovation, localized application


Five Challenges


Making an impact across market segments


Five Challenges



ROI


Five Challenges



ROI

Fore-sighting


Five Challenges



ROI

Fore-sighting

The Grand Plan and Micro Actors


To know more….

http://fistera.jrc.es

http://fistera.telecomitalialab.com

wp2 - key european technology trajectories montpellier, 19 november 2003...

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