wp3: fixing res-h/c targets lukas kranzl, andreas müller res-h policy meeting, march 2009

WP3: Fixing RES-H/C targets

Lukas Kranzl, Andreas Müller

RES-H Policy Meeting, March 2009

2

Structure of the discussion

• Objectives, time table, task structure and methodology of this WP

• Structure of the target report• Preliminary results

– AT (AT, Upper Austria, Styria?)– GR– LT– NL– PL– UK

• Discussion and next steps

3

• Determine options for 2020/2030 RES-H/C targets and their trajectories in the seven target countries/regions.

• Involve national stakeholder and in particular policy makers in that process

• Split up the target into different energy sources, technologies and sectors

• Assist member states in setting up sector-specific targets in the national action plans.

WP3 - objective

4

Methodology

Data basis and scientific ground for target setting

RES H/C targets

Stakeholder policy processtarget setting

Exi

stin

g sc

enar

ios

Top

-dow

nap

proa

ch

Bot

tom

-up

appr

oach

Pol

icy

asse

ssm

ent

Economic modeling

results

Revised targets

Policy workshops

WP 3 WP 4

5

• 3.1. Analysis of existing RES-H/C scenarios and potentials

• 3.2. Top-down assessment of RES-H/C targets

• 3.3. Bottom-up approach to determine RES-H/C targets

• 3.4. Production of target reports

• 3.5. Stakeholder dialogue

Task overview

6

Timetable

Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09Task 3.1: literature / scenario reviewTask 3.2: Top-down assessmentTask 3.3: Bottom-up assessmentTask 3.4: Target reportsTask 3.5: Stakeholder consultation

• To discuss: does the timetable fit to the national progress of the renewable action plans?

• Suggestion: stick to this time frame and include the target setting issue also in the further workshops (of WP4) and maybe revise target based on WP4 results and workshop discussions

7

• Target report for each region (~ 50 pages each, national language and english)Month 10 (July 2009)

• Synthesis report of consultation process for each region (~10 pages each, national language and english)Month 9 (June 2009)

• Documentation of the consultation workshops (~5 pages each, national language and english)Month 10 (July 2009)

Deliverables / Output

8

• Review of regional / national / European studies

• Output: Dataset to assess possible RES-H/C market developments (BAU/policy scenarios?)

Task 3.1 existing scenarios and potentials

9

Task 3.1 previously scheduled steps

• Each partner from target regions provides a list of relevant regional / national / (European) literature and scenarios with a few words describing the content (14 November 08)

• EEG (together with ISI) provides consolidated list and first draft of data structure (28 November 08)

• Each partner fills in scenario data into data structure (16 January 09)

• Documentation of literature / scenario review for the target report (each partner, end of January 09)

• All partners comment on the outcomes of task 3.1 (end of February 09)

• Current situation: only results from a few partners up to now => presentations and discussions later today

10

Task 3.1 methodology

• Structure: file “RES-H WP3 literature overview data template.xls”

• Basic Structure for literature/scenario review:

Time series for various scenarios and/or potentials:

– RES-H/C generation by energy sources (biomass, solar, geothermal, ambient heat)

– RES-H/C generation by sectors (residential (single dwelling, multiple dwelling, …), service sector, public buildings, industry, …)

– RES-H/C generation by technologies (type of biomass boilers, type of solar collectors …)

– Energy demand and efficiency improvements (building insulation), if available

– Documentation of assumptions, methodology, background data

11

Task 3.2 top-down

• Idea: in Task 3.1. different studies with different methodologies are the basis for the analysis. In this task: common methodology from a single model.

• Green-X model runs include scenarios for RES-H/C in each member state until 2020.

• Use previous model runs of Green-X to get reference scenarios for RES-H/C development.

12

Task 3.2 Working progress / next steps

• Presentation of Green-X results (EEG, ISI, later today)

• Document Green-X results in the target report (first draft March 09, final version for the meeting in May 09)

• Discussion with partners (March, April 09)

13

Task 3.2 Top-down

Exemplary Green-X results for EU-27

Source: Green-X Simulations, Futures-E,

Scenario: „strengthened policies“ (~20% 2020 target scenario)

(in this way results will be presented for each target region)

The The Green-Green-XX approach: approach:

DynamicDynamic cost-resource cost-resource

curves curves

&&

a detaileda detailed energy policy energy policy representationrepresentation

Task 3.2 methodology

Mid-term (up to 2020) realisable potentials in year n & corresponding costs for RES at country level by RES technology (subdivided into several bands)

Realisable yearly potentials in year n

Deployment in year nand corresponding costs & benefits

band 1

costs

potential

band 2 band 3…

costs

potential

costs

potential

Technology diffusion (‘S-curve’)(non-economic barriers by technology/country)

Technological change((global) learning curves by technology)

Po

ten

tia

lC

os

t (e

ffic

ien

cy)

Energy policy(energy prices, RES support)

e.g. Feed-in tariffs, Investment incentives,Tendering schemes, Quotas with tradable green certificates

PFIT

n+1

15

Green-X results EU-27„strengthened policy“

RES development RES share

IMPACT OF TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION!!!

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

4.500

20

06

20

09

20

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21

20

24

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27

20

30

RE

S g

en

era

tio

n (

TW

h)

RES-electricity (& CHP) RES-transport RES-heat final energy demand - medium

0%

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20

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ES

sh

are

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rgy

de

ma

nd

electricity

heat

transport

total

16

Green-X results EU-27 „strengthened policy“

RES-H development (technologies)

RES-H development (sectors)

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

1.800

2.000

20

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10

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16

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22

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30

RE

S-H

ge

ne

rati

on

(T

Wh

)

Biogas (grid) Solid biomass (grid)Biowaste (grid) Geothermal heat (grid)Solid biomass (non-grid) Solar thermal heating and hot waterHeat pumps

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

1.800

2.000

20

06

20

09

20

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20

30

RE

S-H

ge

ne

rati

on

(T

Wh

)

RES-H non-gridRES-H district heating & large scaleRES-H CHP

17

Task 3.3. bottom-up

• Idea: carry out a detailed bottom-up estimation of achievable potentials (including diffusion restrictions) as a basis for the target setting process

• Synergetic benefit: set up data base for modelling in WP4

• For buildings: integration of the results in the simulation tool INVERT

• For industrial processes: ECN- RES-HC model

18

Task 3.3 Working progress

Structure for regional/national data requirement (EEG, (ISI), 28 November 08) (ECN???)

• Data collection (each target region partner, January 09)(partly completed, partly not yet started?!)

• Suggestion for default data (investment costs, energy prices etc) by EEG, ECN, ISI April 09; to be discussed until meeting in May

• Previous schedule: Integration of regional data into models INVERT and RES-HC model (EEG, ISI, ECN, March 09)

Revised schedule: Structured data base of bottom up data and detailed analysis results until meeting in May (EEG, ISI, ECN together with partners)

• Result documentation (EEG, (ISI), ECN, May / June 09)

19

Task 3.3 Methodology

• Solar thermal:– Available roof area

– Solar radiation data

– Achievable solar fractions for different applications

• Biomass:– Available biomass potentials (e.g. EEA 2006)

– Penetration rates in different types of buildings and applications

• Heat pumps:– Buildings with high efficiency and low temperature heating

systems

– Number of those buildings (currently and dynamic)

– (Large scale industrial heat pumps: penetration rates)

• For all systems: max. diffusion rates and current state

20

Task 3.3 Data requirement

Detailed data requirement in the files:

• RES-H bottom-up data requirement.doc

• RES-H bottom-up data template.xls (building data)

26

Task 3.3 Data requirement

Industry

27

Task 3.4 target reports

• Draft report: Synthesis of literature/scenario review (3.1), top-down (3.2) and bottom-up (3.3)

• Final report include outcomes of the stakeholder dialogue

• Target reports include technology and sector specific targets

28

Task 3.4 working progress

Draft target report structure (EEG, November 08)

• Literature review chapter (each target country partner, March 09)

• Green-X results (EEG/ISI: draft in March, final in May 09)

• Draft target report (all target country / region partners, April 09)

• Comments of all partners on draft target reports (May 09)

• Final target reports (all target country / region partners, July 09)

29

Task 3.4 target report

Structure for the target report:1. Methodology2. Review of existing scenarios and literature3. Top-Down-Approach: Green-X results4. Bottom-up-approach

• General approach and methodology• Solar thermal• Biomass heating• Geothermal

5. Conclusions from WP4 (optional)6. Comparative analysis of literature, top-down and

bottom-up approach7. Stakeholder discussion process8. Synthesis: RES-H/C targets9. References10. Annexes

30

Target report structure: Do you agree?

We are all supposed to use these country-target reports in the stakeholder consultation and the workshop(s)!

31

Task 3.5 stakeholder dialogue

• Stakeholder consultation: input / comments on findings of tasks 3.1, 3.2, 3.3 and draft target report (web-based questionnaire)

• Consultation workshops in each target region: reports on the consultation and the draft reports will be circulated at least 14 days before the workshop

• Target groups:

– Policy makers (including representatives of national action plans for RES-directive)

– Energy agencies

– Companies / associations representing RES-H/C technologies

– Researchers

32

Task 3.5 working progress

• Stakeholder information (all partners November 08)• Preparation of questionnaire

(has it really to be web based?!?)– Draft structure: EEG, April 09– Web implementation: OEKO/CRES?, Mid of April 09– Regional specification: each target region partner, End of April

09

• Consultation process: each target region partner, May 09• Synthesis report of consultation: each target region

partner, Mid of June 09• Consultation workshops: each target region partner,

June 09 (July 09)

33

Preliminary results: AT (Styria???)

34

AT – Styria (- Upper Austria)

Clarification of the role of the different regional levels: • Stakeholder consultation: Austrian level considering in particular

Styrian stakeholders, too• Target Workshop June 09: national level• Workshop end of 09 / beginning 10 in Styria: target setting +

qualitative policy analysis• Workshop June 10 national level: combining qualitative and

quantitative analyses of policy instruments

• WP 2 country reports: national with Styrian specific parts• WP 3 target report: national level (because renewable action plan is

on the national level), maybe short discussion regarding Styria• WP 4 working document qualitative analysis of instruments: national

or regional level, depending on the type of instrument (difference to Upper Austria??? => common report for whole Austria on the national and regional level?)

• WP4 summary quantitative assessment policy options: focused on the national level with some discussions regarding Styria

35

Green-X results AT „strengthened policy“

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

20

06

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08

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10

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14

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RE

S g

en

era

tio

n (

TW

h)


0%

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90%

20

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30R

ES

sh

are

on

gro

ss

fin

al e

ne

rgy

de

ma

nd

electricity

heat

transport

total



36

Green-X results AT „strengthened policy“



0

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24

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RE

S-H

ge

ne

rati

on

(T

Wh

)


0

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200

6

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8

201

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RE

S-H

gen

era

tio

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TW

h)


37

Literature review AT

• RES-H/C 2030EEG 2007, Renewable heating and cooling 2030, accelerated scenario

• BAP 2006Proposal for an Austrian biomass action plan (Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water management)

• Heating 2020EEG 2009, Energy scenarios up to 2020: heating demand of small scale consumers; WAM-Scenario

• SERI 2009Renewable energy in Austria: Modelling of different scenarios up to 2020, DAM-Scenario

• Tech-Scen 2050EEG 2008, Scenarios of economic market opportunities of different energy technologies up to 2050, alternative support scheme scenario

• Bio 2050EEG 2008, Strategies for the utilization of bioenergy potentials in Austria, heat and power high price scenario

• ESTIF 2008Potential of solar thermal in Europe, RDP

38

Literature review ATSolar thermal

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

200

5

201

0

201

5

202

0

202

5

203

0

So

lar

the

rma

l en

erg

y, A

T (

PJ

)

ESTIF, RDPTech-Scen, alt. supp.SERI, DAMRES-H 2030, acceleratedHEAT 2020, WAM

39

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1802

005

201

0

201

5

202

0

202

5

203

0

Bio

ma

ss h

eat

ing

en

erg

y, A

T (

PJ

)

RES-H 2030, acceleratedBAP incl. CHPBAP excl. CHPSERI, DAMBio 2050, H&P, incl. CHPBio 2050, H&P, excl. CHPHEAT 2020, WAM

Literature review ATBiomass

To be included in the target report: - small scale/large scale; - grid/non-grid; - pellets/wood chips/wood logs; -…Crucial: clarification about included biomass fractions (e.g. black liquor!)and sectors (e.g. industry)

40

Literature review ATAmbient heat (Heat pumps)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

200

5

201

0

201

5

202

0

202

5

203

0

Am

bie

nt

hea

t (H

eat

pu

mp

s),

AT

(P

J)

RES-H 2030, acceleratedSERI, DAMHEAT 2020, WAM

41

Literature review AT, total, sectors

0

50

100

150

200

250

3002

00

5

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

20

30

Re

ne

wa

ble

en

erg

y,

AT

(P

J)

RES-H 2030, accelerated,incl. Industry

RES-H 2030, accelerated,households & service

CAPROS, 2020 targetscenario, households &service

WIFO, incl. industry

WIFO, households & service

HEAT 2020, WAM,households & service

Bottom-up data and analysis: Building stock

43

• Number of buildings (with space heating)

Austria and the target regions: Upper Austria and Styria

Buildings in 2005Expected buildings

in 2020

Austria Upper Austria Styria Austria

1000 Buildings (urban share)

Small residential buildings 1408 (34%) 280 (17%) 260 (15%) 1548

Apartment buildings 176 (70%) 31 (55%) 28 (50%) 192

Private and public service sector 208 (40%) 35 (35%) 36 (25%) 230

Bottom-up data and analysis: Austrian building stock

44


Apartment units per building Communities with

More than 10000 inhabitants

1

2

3-5

11-20

6-10

20+


5000 – 10000 inhabitants

1

23-5

11-20

6-10

20+


less than 5000 inhabitants

1

2

3-5

11-206-10

20+

• Predominating residential building type strongly depends on the community size

45

• Spatial distribution of citizens– 50% of the Population do live in regions with less than

10.000 inhabitants


46


• Buildings sort by construction period(2005)– 70% constructed before 1980 (buildings to be

renovated until 2020– No major differences between target regions: Upper

Austria, Styria and Austria

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Austria UpperAustria

Styria

1991 - 2002

1981 - 1990

1961 - 1980

1945 - 1960

1919 - 1944

Bevore 1919

Bottom-up data and analysis: Solar thermal heat

48

• Solar thermal energy is widely spread in Austria

(AEE INTEC, 2007)

from 14% to 22%Market share

03-06

from 1% to 2,2%Market share

03-06

from 5% to 12%

Market share03-06

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Small res.buildings

Apartment buildings Tourism rel.buildings

Po

ten

tial

an

d M

arke

t S

har

e in

%

Total market potential Market share 2003 Market share 2006

1,3 Mio.dwellings

~ 15.000 buildings1,9 Mio.dwellings

from 14% to 22%Market share

03-06

from 1% to 2,2%Market share

03-06

from 5% to 12%

Market share03-06

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Small res.buildings

Apartment buildings Tourism rel.buildings

Po

ten

tial

an

d M

arke

t S

har

e in

%

Total market potential Market share 2003 Market share 2006

1,3 Mio.dwellings

~ 15.000 buildings1,9 Mio.dwellings

Includes double counting’s

Subsidies in 2007 for solar Subsidies in 2007 for solar thermal applications: ~50 Mio. €thermal applications: ~50 Mio. €

49


• Available roof area:– Novak et al. (2000) IEA PVPS programme Task

7: • 159 km² roof area in areas with sufficient solar

radiation and suitable direction

– EEG: Bottom up analysis based on buildings with low temperature demand:

• 83 km² (2005), 90 km² (2020)

• Solar radiation:

• less than 1100 kWh/m² in most populated regions

50


• Achievable solar fractions for different applications

Solar coverage

Spec. yield

Small resid. buildingsSmall resid. buildings

Water heating (~6 m²) 50%–60% 350 kWh/m²

„Combi Systems“,

existing buildings, renovated (20 m²)

20%–30% 270 kWh/m²

New buildings (20 m²) 25%–30% 270 kWh/m²

Apartment buildingsApartment buildings

„Combi Systems“ (3-6 m²/ apartment) 15%–25% 300 kWh/m²

51


Main underlying assumptions– 70% of new buildings after 2010 do have solar

thermal space heating:• Solar coverage:

– 30% small res. buildings (25% in 2010, 35% in 2020)– 20% apartment buildings (15% in 2010, 25% in 2020)

– 20% of new buildings after 2010 will equipped with solar thermal water heating

• Solar coverage:– 70% of energy demand for hot water supply

52


Main underlying assumptions• 55% of buildings constructed between 1980 – 1990:

(those are the buildings which do change their heating system only, Novak et al. 2000, buildings stock 55% if buildings suitable solar radiation)

• Solar coverage:

– 20% small res. buildings (20% in 2010, 25% in 2020)

– 10% apartment buildings (10% in 2010, 10% in 2020)• 55% of buildings which will be renovated within the time period from 2010 –

2020 (Renovation rate: 1,5%p.a.)

• Solar coverage:

– 25% small res. buildings: (20% in 2010, 30% in 2020)

– 15% apartment buildings: (10% in 2010, 20% in 2020)• 55% of buildings that change their heating system will equipped with solar thermal

water heating (Replacement rate, heating system only: 1,5%p.a.)

• Solar coverage: 60% of energy demand for hot water

53


Achievable solar thermal energy contributionAchievable solar thermal energy contribution– Total solar thermal energy supply 2020: 15 PJ

Small resid. B.

Apartment B.

Service Sector

Total

Existing systems (2010) ~3.0 PJ 0.5PJ 0.5 PJ 4 PJ

Renovated buildings after 2010

1.7 PJ 0.4 PJ 0.7 PJ 2.8 PJ

Buildings 1980 – 2002 (change heating system only)

1.9 PJ 0.4 PJ 0.9 PJ 3.2 PJ

Existing buildings (Solar water heating

0.3 PJ 0.2 PJ 0.2 PJ 0.6 PJ

New buildings after 2010 1.9 PJ 0.6 PJ 2.0 PJ 4.5 PJ

All buildings 8.8 PJ 2.1 PJ 4.3 PJ 15.2 PJ

250 out of 680

Mio. m²

Bottom-up data and analysis: Heat pumps

55


• Current market situation

• Sales increased significantly within the last year

• 80.000 HP for DHW

50.000 for space heating 0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

Ne

w in

sta

llati

on

s (

#)

Space heating

Domestic hot water

Historical installation

56


• Heat pumps do depend on low temperature heat distribution system (floor heating)

• Heat source has to be available: possibility for drilling, available space for horizontals heat collectors

• Upcoming national buildings regulation code (OIB Richtlinie 6) demands an annual average efficiency of higher than 4

• -> difficult to achieve (especially with air – water heat pump systems)

57


• Achievable COP for different applications

– Hot water production: 2.4 – 2.7 (60°C)

– Space heating only:

• Air-Water: 3.5 – 3.9 (35°C), 2.3 – 2.7 (55°C)

• Sole-Water: 5.2 – 5.6 (35°C), 2.8 – 3.3 (55°C)

– Combined systems:

• Air-Water: 3.1 – 3.5 (35°C), 2.1 – 2.5 (55°C)

• Sole-Water: 3.4 – 3.9 (35°C), 2.6 – 3.1 (55°C)

58


• Main underlying assumptions– Floor heating, low temp. heat distribution system:

• 30% of buildings constructed between 1992 and 2002 • 25% of retrofitted buildings after 2010 • 80% of new constructed buildings after 2010

– Availability of ambient heat source:• 75% in rural areas (70% existing buildings)• 25% in urban areas (5% existing buildings)

– Annual average efficiency of heat pumps 4 (3.5 existing buildings)

59


Achievable ambient energy contributionAchievable ambient energy contribution– Total ambient energy supply 2020: 15 PJ

Small resid. B.

Apartment B.

Service Sector

Total

Existing systems (2010) ~3.5 PJ 0.5 PJ 0.5 PJ 4.5 PJ

Renovated buildings after 2010

1.1 PJ 0.2 PJ 0.6 PJ 2.0 PJ

Buildings 1990 – 2002 (change heating system only)

1.6 PJ 0.3 PJ 0.7 PJ 2.6 PJ

New buildings after 2010 2.4 PJ 0.7 PJ 3.1 PJ 6.2 PJ

All buildings 8.6 PJ 1.7 PJ 4.9 PJ 15.3 PJ

Bottom-up data and analysis: Biomass heating

61

0

50

100

150

200

2005

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2005

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2005

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2005

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Forestry biomass Inustrialbiomass

Agriculturalbiomass

Waste wood

PJ

/a

0

10.000

20.000

30.000

40.000

50.000

60.000

GW

h/a

Bottom-up data and analysis: Biomass, AT

Dynamic biomass potentials, Austria(not available for heat only!)

Source: Kranzl et al 2008

62

Biomass potentials for heating, AT

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

bio

mas

s p

ote

nti

al,

AT

(P

J)

total biomass potential PJ

total minus transport and CHPfuel input PJbiomass potential available forheating PJ

total primary biomass potential

minus biomass energy input for biofuels and CHP

minus agricultural potential not available for heating (e.g. grass, manure …)

Depending on: • Scenarios for biofuels and

biomass CHP• Type of fuels and technologies

used for biomass heating

63

Bottom up data and analysis: biomass historical data, AT

0

50

100

150

200

25019

80

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

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1998

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2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Pri

mar

y en

erg

y co

nsu

mp

tio

n b

iom

ass

in

Au

stri

a (P

J)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

shar

e o

f b

iom

ass

on

to

tal

gro

ss e

ner

gy

con

sum

pti

on

residential heating

district heating

transport

paper and pulp industry

other industry

electricity

share of biomass on total gross energy consumption

64

Bottom up data and analysis: biomass historical data, AT

0

20

40

60

80

100

1201

97

0

19

73

19

76

19

79

19

82

19

85

19

88

19

91

19

94

19

97

20

00

20

03

20

06

Pri

ma

ry e

ne

rgy

co

ns

um

pti

on

of

do

mes

tic

wo

od

hea

tin

g s

ys

tem

s (P

J)

Wood log

Pellets

Wood chips

66

Bottom-up data and analysis: biomass heating

• Achievable biomass energy contribution– Not fully analyzed so far– First results indicate, that for residential

buildings a significant increase is difficult to achieve (decreasing heat demand). Increase within a range of 10 – 20 PJ excluding biomass district heat is plausible.

– Service sector could increase biomass energy consumption within a range of 20 – 30 PJ.

68

WP3 progress: AT

• What is the state of progress regarding the literature overview? – Mostly completed– Open: Documentation in target report

• What is your state of progress regarding the bottom-up-data? – Preliminary results ready– Open: partly more detailed analyses; documentation in target report

• What is the status of stakeholder consultation and workshop preparation? – First communication and discussions – Workshop not yet scheduled

• What is the time schedule for the next steps to be taken with respect to: literature review, bottom-up-data collection, stakeholder consultation, workshop preparation and the target report?– Documentation of literature review and bottom-up data April 09– Planning of workshop: April 09– Stakeholder consultation: May / June 09

69

Preliminary results: Upper Austria

70

081396enESV-Design

71

WP3 progress: AT Upper Austria

• What is the state of progress regarding the literature overview?

• What is your state of progress regarding the bottom-up-data?

• What is the status of stakeholder consultation and workshop preparation?

• What is the time schedule for the next steps to be taken with respect to: literature review, bottom-up-data collection, stakeholder consultation, workshop preparation and the target report?

• What are open questions regarding WP3?

72

Preliminary results: GR

73

Green-X results GR „strengthened policy“



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20

06

20

08

20

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20

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20

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20

18

20

20

20

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20

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20

26

20

28

20

30

RE

S g

en

era

tio

n (

TW

h)


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30R

ES

sh

are

on

gro

ss

fin

al e

ne

rgy

de

ma

nd

electricity

heat

transport

total

74

Green-X results GR „strengthened policy“



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

RE

S-H

ge

ne

rati

on

(T

Wh

)


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

20

06

20

09

20

12

20

15

20

18

20

21

20

24

20

27

20

30

RE

S-H

ge

ne

rati

on

(T

Wh

)RES-H non-gridRES-H district heating & large scaleRES-H CHP

75

Literature review GR

Report of the Ministry of Development (2008): "Analysis of the Greek Energy System for the period 2008-2020 in view of the new policy EU and National targets for climate change mitigation, RES

penetration and Saving Energy"

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2010 2015 2020 2010 2015 2020 2010 2015 2020 2010 2015 2020

ener

gy

con

sum

pti

on

(P

J)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

gro

ss f

inal

en

erg

y co

nsu

mp

tio

n (

PJ)

RES-H biofuels RES-E total gross final energy consumption

scenario 0 scenario 1 scenario 2 scenario 3

11%11%

13%

11%

13%

18%

11%

13%

18%

11%

15%

18%

76

Literature review GRscenario 0

0,0

200,0

400,0

600,0

800,0

1000,0

1200,0

1400,0

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

year

ener

gy

con

sum

pti

on

(P

J)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

% s

har

e o

r R

ES

in g

ross

en

erg

y co

nsu

mp

tio

n

RES-H RES-E biofuels total RES gross energy consumption % share of RES

77


scenario 3

0,0

200,0

400,0

600,0

800,0

1000,0

1200,0

1400,0

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

year

ener

gy

con

sum

pti

on

(P

J)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

% s

har

e o

r R

ES

in g

ross

en

erg

y co

nsu

mp

tio

n

RES-H

RES-E

biofuels

total RES

gross energy consumption

% share of RES

78


Report to the European Commission-DG ENV (2008):"Model-based Analysis of the 2008 EU Policy Package on Climate Change and Renewables" By P.Capros, L.Mantzos, V.Papandreou, N.Tasios

Primes Model-E3MLab/NTUA

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

ener

gy

con

sum

pti

on

(P

J)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

RES-H & biofuels RES-E total gross final energy consumption

scenario 0 scenario 1 scenario 2 scenario 3 scenario 4 scenario 5 scenario 6

9%

10%11%11,6%

13,3%

10,1%

14,1%

18,2%

19,7%21,2%

10,3%

14,3%

18,2%

20,1%

21,6%

10,3%

14,4%

18,6%

20,3%

21,7%

10,5%

14,5%

18,4%

20,8%

22,2%

10,3%

14,7%

18,9%

20,8%

22,1%

10,5%

14,6%

18,5%

20,7%

22,2%

79


Comparison of scenarios between the two studies

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2010

2020

2010

2020

2010

2020

2010

2020

2010

2020

2010

2020

2010

2020

2010

2020

2020

2030

2020

2030

2020

2030

ener

gy

con

sum

pti

on

(P

J)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

gro

ss f

inal

en

erg

y co

nsu

mp

tio

n (

PJ)

RES-H & biofuels RES-H biofuels RES-E total gross final energy consumption

primes 08 primes 08primes 08

primes 08

energy planning

energy olanning

energy planning

energy planning

scenario 0 scenario 1 scenario 2 scenario 3

primes 08

scenario 4 scenario 5 scenario 6

80

WP3 progress: GR


• What is your state of progress regarding the bottom-up-data? – Missing: Heating systems by buildings type




81

Preliminary results: LT

82

Green-X results LT „strengthened policy“



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

RE

S g

en

era

tio

n (

TW

h)

RES-electricity (& CHP) RES-transport RES-heatfinal energy demand - medium

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

200

6

200

8

201

0

201

2

201

4

201

6

201

8

202

0

202

2

202

4

202

6

202

8

203

0RE

S s

ha

re o

n g

ross

fin

al e

ner

gy

de

man

d

electricity

heat

transport

total

83

Green-X results LT „strengthened policy“



0

5

10

15

20

25

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

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RE

S-H

ge

ne

rati

on

(T

Wh

)


0

5

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20

25

20

06

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09

20

12

20

15

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20

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20

24

20

27

20

30

RE

S-H

ge

ne

rati

on

(T

Wh

)


84

WP3 progress: LT


• What is your state of progress regarding the bottom-up-data? – Missing: Penetration of renewables, climate data




85

Preliminary results: NL

86

Green-X results NL „strengthened policy“



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

20

06

20

08

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10

20

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20

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30

RE

S g

en

era

tio

n (

TW

h)


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

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20

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30R

ES

sh

are

on

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electricity

heat

transport

total

87

Green-X results NL „strengthened policy“



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

20

06

20

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20

10

20

12

20

14

20

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20

20

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20

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RE

S-H

ge

ne

rati

on

(T

Wh

)


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

20

06

20

09

20

12

20

15

20

18

20

21

20

24

20

27

20

30

RE

S-H

gen

era

tion

(T

Wh

)


88

WP3 progress: NL


• What is your state of progress regarding the bottom-up-data? – Missing: expected development of the stock/ new buildings, climate data,

penetration of renewables




89

Preliminary results: PL

90

Green-X results PL „strengthened policy“



0

50

100

150

200

250

300

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

RE

S g

en

era

tio

n (

TW

h)


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30R

ES

sh

are

on

gro

ss

fin

al e

ne

rgy

de

ma

nd

electricity

heat

transport

total

91

Green-X results PL „strengthened policy“



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

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30

RE

S-H

gen

era

tio

n (

TW

h)


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

20

06

20

09

20

12

20

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20

18

20

21

20

24

20

27

20

30

RE

S-H

ge

ne

rati

on

(T

Wh

)


92

WP3 progress: PL


• What is your state of progress regarding the bottom-up-data? – Missing: …




93

Preliminary results: UK

94

Green-X results UK „strengthened policy“



0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

20

06

20

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10

20

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20

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26

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28

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30

RE

S g

en

era

tio

n (

TW

h)

RES-electricity (& CHP) RES-transport RES-heatfinal energy demand - medium

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30R

ES

sh

are

on

gro

ss

fin

al e

ne

rgy

de

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nd

electricity

heat

transport

total

95

Green-X results UK „strengthened policy“



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

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20

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20

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20

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RE

S-H

ge

ne

rati

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(T

Wh

)


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

20

06

20

09

20

12

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15

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18

20

21

20

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30

RE

S-H

ge

ne

rati

on

(T

Wh

)


96

WP3 progress: UK


• What is your state of progress regarding the bottom-up-data? – Missing: ???




97

General default data

• Building stock data– Housing statistics in the European Union

(2005/2006)– Eurostat?– Ecofys for Eurima, EurACE (2004): Mitigation

of CO2 emissions from the building stock ?– ???

• Biomass potentials:– EEA: „How much bioenergy can Europe

produce without harming the environment“

wp3: fixing res-h/c targets lukas kranzl, andreas müller res-h policy meeting, march 2009

Documents

assessment of res

task structure

target regions

target countriesregions

national stakeholder

national language

ambient heat reshc generation

wp structure