wsr 2012_wk30

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Weekly

Summary Report2012 Trading Week 30: 16-22 July 2012

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MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

MIN MAX AVE MIN MAX AVE

Jul-16 7,467 8,881 8,166 5,834 8,785 7,507

Jul-17 7,546 8,805 8,127 6,195 8,810 7,665

Jul-18 7,587 8,800 8,085 6,219 8,810 7,595

Jul-19 7,570 8,680 7,996 6,122 8,559 7,411

Jul-20 7,411 8,485 7,930 6,002 8,293 7,099

Jul-21 7,767 8,775 8,320 5,514 7,299 6,374

Jul-22 7,906 8,531 8,226 4,594 6,982 5,680

7,411 8,881 8,121 4,594 8,810 7,047

FORECASTED VS. ACTUAL DEMAND

DATE

Jul-16

Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22

EX-ANTE GENERATION MIX

Jul-16 51.5 14.5 7.6 19.7 6.7 -

Jul-17 52.3 14.3 8.0 17.7 7.7 -

Jul-18 50.2 14.0 8.7 20.1 7.0 -

Jul-19 50.3 14.9 8.2 20.4 6.2 -

Jul-20 50.9 15.4 7.6 21.4 4.7 -

Jul-21 46.9 17.2 7.7 28.0 0.3 -

Jul-22 43.0 17.9 8.6 30.3 0.2 -

49.6 15.3 8.1 22.1 5.0 -

DATE

GENERATION MIX, %

DATE

RTD DEMAND, MWOFFER, MW

WIND AND

BIOCOAL GEO

FORECAST ERRORS, %

MINIMUM MAXIMUM

NAT GASDIESEL /

OIL

0.02

0.00

0.03

0.00

MAPE

HYDRO

0.08

0.13

0.21

0.00

3.05

4.22

3.41

4.22

1.09

1.36

1.31

0.90

2.95 0.82

1.99 0.45

1.65 0.66

2.05 0.66

Ex-ante system demand peaked at a level of 8,810 MW during the week (1400H, 18 July 2012), while the maximum market offer significantly decreased to8,881 MW (1300H, 16 July 2012) in comparison with the previous week.

Tight and insufficient supply conditions were observed through most of the weekdays as a result of the unavailability of Ilijan 1 and 2 (Block A and B) giventhat the Malampaya onshore natural gas plant was still on maintenance during the week. Ilijan 1 only started to become available at 2400H of 20 July2012. With this, under-generation and load shedding conditions were observed in the market results during most of the week. Supply margins started to

widen on 20 July 2012 because of the low demand requirement until the weekend, which may be attributed to the continuous downpour of rain in Luzon. With the Malampaya complex still undergoing maintenance during the week, affected generating units (Sta. Rita and San Lorenzo) operated usingalternate fuel.

Towards the weekend, however, natural gas supply from Malampaya resumed as indicated by the availability of Ilijan 1 at 240 0H of 20 July 2012. On theother hand, the Sta. Rita and San Lorenzo gas plants implemented their fuel change-over from fuel to fuel gas in the morning of 21 July 2012.

With the tight and insufficient supply levels during the weekdays, oil-based plants increased in frequency in setting the price in the market; prices as high asPhP 54,458/MWh (1500H, 16 July 2012) was cleared in the market. During the weekend, however, with system ex-ante demand level going as low as4,594 MW, prices went as low as PhP 0/MWh for trading intervals 0300H, 0500H to 0700H, and 2400H on 22 July 2012. Over-all, the weekly averagenodal price (system-wide) was observed to be lower at PhP 8,246/MWh in comparison with the previous week.

With the tight supply and inadequate reserve levels being experienced in the grid, must-run units (MRUs) in Luzon, particularly Malaya 1 and 2, weredispatched from 16-20 of July 2012. In the Visayas, a few MRUs were still called upon all of which were still from the island of Panay for system voltagerequirement.

The dispatch of oil-based plants increased to 5% (based on ex-ante schedules) in comparison to last week's 3.1% as their capacities were frequentlycleared in the market, coupled with their increased utilization as MRUs.

Price separation was observed in the Luzon grid because of a congestion at the Tayabas 500/230 kV Sub -station from 17-18 July 2012 since one of thethree 600 MVA transformers was on maintenance while the N-1 contingency requirement was imposed on the said sub-station. There were a few tradingintervals affected by the price separation in the Visayas because of congestions at the New Naga-Quiot 138 kV line and at the Negros-Panay submarinecable.

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

MW

OFFEREFFECTIVE SUPPLYSYSTEM RTD

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

MW

SYSTEM RTD

SYSTEM ACTUAL

COAL49.6%

GEO15.3%

HYDRO8.1%

NAT GAS22.1%

DIESEL/OIL5.0%

Weekly Summary Report Week 30: 16-22 July 2012

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CAPACITY (OFFER) MIX

Jul-16 49.8 13.3 8.5 19.1 9.3 -

Jul-17 50.0 13.4 8.6 19.1 8.9 -

Jul-18 50.3 13.5 8.7 19.3 8.2 -

Jul-19 50.4 13.8 8.2 19.5 8.1 -

Jul-20 50.7 13.9 8.1 19.6 7.6 -

Jul-21 48.7 13.3 8.0 23.9 6.2 -

Jul-22 48.6 13.3 8.3 23.7 6.1 -

49.8 13.5 8.3 20.6 7.8 -

HVDC FLOW EX-ANTE HVDC FLOW

NO FLOW VL LV NO FLOW VL LVJul-16 - 100.0 - - 100.0 -

Jul-17 - 100.0 - - 100.0 -

Jul-18 - 100.0 - - 100.0 -

Jul-19 - 100.0 - - 100.0 -

Jul-20 - 100.0 - - 100.0 -

Jul-21 - 91.7 8.3 4.2 95.8 -

Jul-22 - 87.5 12.5 4.2 87.5 8.3

- 97.0 3.0 1.2 97.6 1.2

SYSTEM MARKET PRICES SYSTEM MARKET PRICES (LWAP)


Jul-16 2,677 54,458 14,523 2,676 54,458 14,395

Jul-17 3,065 51,237 14,706 3,266 39,080 14,304

Jul-18 2,856 23,398 9,886 2,588 23,588 9,415

Jul-19 2,330 14,581 7,541 2,328 14,612 7,781

Jul-20 2,300 9,636 4,377 2,317 9,307 4,350

Jul-21 1,702 2,849 2,324 1,590 2,846 2,321

Jul-22 0 2,601 1,452 0 2,569 1,361

0 54,458 8,246 0 54,458 8,117

EX-ANTE LWAP DISTRIBUTION EX-ANTE MARKET PRICES PER GRID (LWAP )

DATE

WIND AND

BIO

RTD

DATERTD ACTUAL

COAL

HVDC DIRECTION, % OF TIME

DATE

AVERAGE CAPACITY MIX, %

GEO HYDRO NAT GASDIESEL /

OIL

DAILY SUMMARY OF SYSTEM PRICES (LWAP), PhP/MWh

RTX

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

MW

LUZON-TO-VISAYAS

VISAYAS-TO-LUZON

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

LWAP,PhP/MWh

RTD LWAP

RTX LWAP

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 and Below 0 - 2000 2000 - 4000 4000 - 6000 6000 - 8000 8000 -10000

Above10000

PERCENTOFTIME

RTD RTX

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

LWAP,PhP/MWh

LUZON

VISAYAS

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

MW

DIESEL/OIL NAT GAS

HYDRO GEO

COAL

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SUMMARY OF PRICES PER GRID, LUZON LUZON MARKET PRICES (LWAP)


Jul-16 2,684 54,694 14,318 2,687 54,694 14,417

Jul-17 3,075 51,237 14,817 3,282 39,080 14,333

Jul-18 2,860 23,753 10,029 2,602 23,753 9,438

Jul-19 2,333 14,715 7,575 2,335 14,715 7,779

Jul-20 2,311 9,285 4,348 2,330 9,285 4,332

Jul-21 1,703 2,863 2,304 1,592 2,863 2,311

Jul-22 0 2,533 1,435 0 2,495 1,342

0 54,694 8,285 0 54,694 8,159

SUMMARY OF PRICES PER GRID, VISAYAS VISAYAS MARKET PRICES (LWAP)


Jul-16 2,635 53,166 15,650 2,612 53,166 14,271

Jul-17 3,006 51,237 14,101 3,176 39,080 14,145

Jul-18 1,194 21,435 9,102 2,485 22,679 9,289

Jul-19 2,308 13,839 7,357 2,282 14,047 7,795

Jul-20 2,239 11,504 4,533 2,246 9,421 4,442

Jul-21 1,694 3,390 2,424 1,581 3,079 2,371

Jul-22 0 2,905 1,530 0 2,884 1,446

0 53,166 8,040 0 53,166 7,892

INTERVALS WITH MUST-RUN UNIT (MRU) EVENTS HOURLY MRU EVENTS

MRU EVENTS, LUZON MRU EVENTS, VISAYAS

DATE TOTAL THERMAL RESERVE VOLTAGE COMM/REG OTHERS DATE TOTAL THERMAL RESERVE VOLTAGE COMM/REG OTHERS

Jul-16 18 - 18 - - - Jul-16 - - - - - -

Jul-17 31 - 31 - - - Jul-17 - - - - - -

Jul-18 43 - 43 - - - Jul-18 - - - - - -

Jul-19 42 - 42 - - - Jul-19 - - - - - -

Jul-20 45 - 45 - - - Jul-20 2 - - 2 - -

Jul-21 - - - - - - Jul-21 3 - - 3 - -

Jul-22 - - - - - - Jul-22 - - - - - -

179 - 179 - - - 5 - - 5 - -

Note: MRU events refer to occurrences in which generating uni ts are designated THERMAL - Thermal Limits of Transmission Line and/or Power Equipment

as must-run units for certain trading intervals RESERVE - Inadequate Reserve Level

Source: NGCP Luzon System Operations and Visayas System Operations VOLTAGE - System Voltage Requirement

COMM/REG - Commercia l Operation or Regulatory Requirements

OTHERS - Other Reasons for MRU Dispatch such as System Tests, etc.

DATE

Jul-16

Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22 -

111

3

-

5

VISAYAS

DATE

DATE

-

2

RTD, PhP/MWh RTX, PhP/MWh

RTD, PhP/MWh

-

-

LUZON

18

22

24

23

24

RTX, PhP/MWh

-

-

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

LWAP,PhP

/MWh

RTD LWAP

RTX LWAP

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

LWAP,PhP/MWh

RTD LWAP

RTX LWAP

0

1

2

3

HOURLYFREQUE

NCYOFMRU

EVENT

S

LUZON

VISAYAS

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LUZON PRICING CONDITIONS (FREQUENCY) VISAYAS PRICING CONDITIONS (FREQUENCY)

VALID PEN VALID MRR VALID PEN VALID MRR

- 12 12 21 3 - 19 5 21 3

- 12 12 19 5 - 18 6 19 5

- 13 11 23 1 - 23 1 23 1

- 14 10 24 - - 24 - 24 -

- 20 4 24 - - 24 - 24 -

- 24 - 24 - - 24 - 24 -

- 24 - 24 - - 24 - 24 -

- 119 49 159 9 - 156 12 159 9

AP - Trading hours affected by Market Intervention

VALID - Trading hours wit h no is suance of PEN or Market Intervent ion

PEN/MRR - Trading hours issued with pricing errors

REASON FOR PRICING ERRORS, LUZON REASON FOR PRICING ERRORS, VISAYAS

DATE UGEN VOLL CONT BC PSM ERR DATE UGEN VOLL CONT BC PSM ERR

Jul-16 1 5 12 - - - Jul-16 1 4 - - - -

Jul-17 3 4 11 - 2 - Jul-17 3 1 - - 2 -

Jul-18 - 1 11 - 1 - Jul-18 - - 1 - 1 -

Jul-19 - - 10 - - - Jul-19 - - - - - -

Jul-20 - - 4 - - - Jul-20 - - - - - -

Jul-21 - - - - - - Jul-21 - - - - - -

Jul-22 - - - - - - Jul-22 - - - - - -

4 10 48 - 3 - 4 5 1 - 3 -

DATE UGEN VOLL CONT BC PSM ERR DATE UGEN VOLL CONT BC PSM ERR

Jul-16 3 - - - - - Jul-16 3 - - - - -

Jul-17 5 - - - - - Jul-17 5 - - - - -

Jul-18 1 - - - - - Jul-18 1 - - - - -

Jul-19 - - - - - - Jul-19 - - - - - -

Jul-20 - - - - - - Jul-20 - - - - - -

Jul-21 - - - - - - Jul-21 - - - - - -

Jul-22 - - - - - - Jul-22 - - - - - -

9 - - - - - 9 - - - - -

UGEN - Under-generation BC - Base Case CVC

VOLL - Nodal Value of Lost Load PSM - Subject to the Price Substitution Methodology

CONT - Contingency CVC ERR - Erroneous Input or Snapshot Information

RTX

Jul-16

Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22

RTX

VISAYAS, EX-ANTE PEN

VISAYAS, EX-POST PEN

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22

APRTD

Jul-17

Jul-16

Jul-19

DATE

Jul-18

LUZON, EX-POST PEN

LUZON, EX-ANTE PEN

DATE APRTD

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