yt wy2013 fall operatoins meeting (nov 8 2012) · 08/11/2012 · water year 2012 oct-mar actual...

RECLAMATIONC ONManaging Water in the West

Yellowtail Dam & Bighorn LakeYellowtail Dam & Bighorn Lake Water Year 2013: Fall Operations Meeting

Billings, MontanaNovember 8, 2012November 8, 2012

Agenda

W l & I t d tiWelcome & Introductions

R i f W t Y 2012 O tiReview of Water Year 2012 Operations

Preview of Water Year 2013 Fall & Winter Operations

Open Discussion

Yellowtail Dam & Afterbay

BIGHORN LAKE2012 Operations Review

BIGHORN LAKE CONDITIONSNovember 1 2011

Elevation 3639 30 ft – 0 7 ft below full pool

November 1, 2011

3639.30 ft – 0.7 ft below full pool

Storage 1,011,836 acre-feet (99% full)

Inflows = 2 600 cfsInflows 2,600 cfs

Total Outflow = 3,500 cfsfRiver = 3,500 cfs

BIA Canal = 0 cfs

BIGHORN LAKE FALL OPERATIONSOperating Criteria Used for 2012 Plans

BIGHORN LAKE FALL OPERATIONSOperating Criteria Used for 2012 Plans

STEP 1

Operating Criteria Used for 2012 Plans

2011 April-October Gain = 806,500 acre-feet2011 End-of-October Storage = 1,011,836 acre-feetUpstream Reservoir Fall & Winter Releases =

Boysen = 950 cfsB ff l Bill 350 fBuffalo Bill = 350 cfs

Projected End-of-March Target Elevation = 3617Calculated November-March Gain = 339,300 acre-feetCalculated Fall & Winter Release for Yellowtail:

River = 3 175 cfsRiver = 3,175 cfs

BIGHORN LAKE FALL CONDITIONSOperating Criteria Used for 2012 Plans

STEP 2


Since Calculated Fall & Winter Release was > 2,500 cfs

Set End of March target elevation @ 3619Set End-of-March target elevation @ 3619

Calculated New Fall & Winter Release for Yellowtail:River = 3,130 cfs

Bighorn Lake November-March Inflow

Recap of Water Year 2012F.C. – 733 kaf

1400

Bighorn Lake November March Inflow1967-2012 2012 – 726 kaf

Ave. – 696 kaf

1000

1200

low

(kaf

)

600

800

er-M

arch

Inf

200

400

Nov

embe

0

200

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Years

Bighorn Lake 2012 Nov-Mar Operations

3640

3645

et

3630

3635

evat

ion

fee

3620

3625

Lake

Ele

3610

3615

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

2012 Top of Joint Use

November-March OperationsNovember March Operations

Target Actual

Oct 31 Lake Elevation 3635-3640 3639.30

Mar 31 Lake Elevation 3619 3619 58Mar 31 Lake Elevation 3619 3619.58

Nov-Mar Release 3,130 cfs

Spring Runoff ConditionsSpring Runoff Conditions

Recap of Water Year 2012

2012 Valley Precipitation

6.57.07.5


4.55.05.56.0

n (In

ches

)

2 02.53.03.54.0

Prec

ipita

tion

0 00.51.01.52.0P

0.0Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept

Month

Average Valley Precipitation Actual Valley Precipitation


2012 Mountain Precipitation

6.57.07.5


4.55.05.56.0

n (In

ches

)

2 02.53.03.54.0

Prec

ipita

tion

0 00.51.01.52.0P

0.0Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept

Month

A M i P i i i A l M i P i i iAverage Mountain Precipitation Actual Mountain Precipitation

Mountain Snowpack Conditions on January 1


20

22

24

Mountain Snowpack Conditions on January 1

2012

AverageSE = 99% of average

April-July Forecast = 1,131.4 kaf (99%)

14

16

18

20

quiv

alen

ts)

p Ju y o ecast , 3 a (99%)

8

10

12

ow W

ater

Eq

(Inch

es

2

4

6Sno

0

Mountain Snowpack Conditions on February 1


20

22

24

Mountain Snowpack Conditions on February 1

2012



14

16

18

20

quiv

alen

ts)

p Ju y o ecast , a ( 0 %)

8

10

12

ow W

ater

Eq

(Inch

es

2

4

6Sno

0

Mountain Snowpack Conditions on March 1


20

22

24

Mountain Snowpack Conditions on March 1

2012



14

16

18

20

quiv

alen

ts)

p Ju y o ecast ,3 3 a ( 8%)

8

10

12

ow W

ater

Eq

(Inch

es

2

4

6Sno

0

Mountain Snowpack Conditions on April 1


20

22

24

Mountain Snowpack Conditions on April 1

2012



14

16

18

20

quiv

alen

ts)

p Ju y o ecast ,06 0 a (93%)

8

10

12

ow W

ater

Eq

(Inch

es

2

4

6Sno

0

Mountain Snowpack Conditions on May 1


20

22

24

Mountain Snowpack Conditions on May 1

2012


April-July Forecast = 749.7 kaf (66%)

14

16

18

20

quiv

alen

ts)

p Ju y o ecast 9 a (66%)

8

10

12

ow W

ater

Eq

(Inch

es

2

4

6Sno

0

Mountain Snowpack Conditions on June 1


20

22

24

Mountain Snowpack Conditions on June 1

2012


April-July Forecast = 690.4 kaf (61%)

14

16

18

20

quiv

alen

ts)

p Ju y o ecast 690 a (6 %)

8

10

12

ow W

ater

Eq

(Inch

es

2

4

6Sno

0

2012 Mountain Snowpack Conditions


20

22

24

2012 Mountain Snowpack Conditions

2012

AveragePeaked on March 22, 2012

1 6” b l k A il 15

14

16

18

20

quiv

alen

ts)

1.6” below average peak on April 15

8

10

12

ow W

ater

Eq

(Inch

es

2

4

6Sno

0

Mountain Snowpack Conditions


20

22

24

Mountain Snowpack Conditions

20112012Average

14

16

18

20

quiv

alen

ts)

Average

8

10

12

ow W

ater

Eq

(Inch

es

2

4

6Sno

0

Recap of Water Year 20125-17-2012

Rule Curve Operations April-JulyRule Curve Operations April-July

2012 April-July Forecasts &Rule Curve TargetsRule Curve Targets

Rule CurveDate Forecast % of Avg Min Elev. Date

Jan. 1 1,131,400 99% 3613.4 5/03F b 1 1 212 200 102% 3612 6 5/08Feb. 1 1,212,200 102% 3612.6 5/08Mar. 1 1,344,300 118% 3611.1 5/13April 1 1,064,000 93% 3614.4 5/02p , ,April 15 903,900 79% 3616.6 4/26May 1 749,700 77% 3619.0 5/01May 15 641 800 56% 3622 1 5/16May 15 641,800 56% 3622.1 5/16June 1 690,500 61% 3626.1 6/01

Actual 693,100 61%

Bighorn Lake Rule Curve Operation 2012

15000

16500

18000

3,640

3,645

3,650

10500

12000

13500

3,625

3,630

3,635

e (c

fs)

on (f

eet)

6000

7500

9000

3,610

3,615

3,620

Dis

char

ge

Elev

atio

1500

3000

4500

3,595

3,600

3,605

03,590Apr May Jun Jul

Elevation Rule Curve Top of Joint Use Inflow River Release

Bighorn Lake April-July Inflow


3000

g p y1967-2012 2012 – 693 kaf

Ave. – 1,138 kaf

2000

2500

(kaf

)

1500

-Jul

y Inf

low

(

500

1000

Apr

il-

0

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Years

Bighorn Lake Inflows 2012


20000

22000

Bighorn Lake Inflows 2011Average

Peaked Inflow = 6,527 cfs on June 713,826 cfs lower than in 2011WY 2011 Total Inflow: 3,817.0 kaf (162% of average)

WY 2012 T t l I fl 1 850 0 k f (78% f )

14000

16000

18000

cfs)

WY 2012 Total Inflow: 1,850.0 kaf (78% of average)

Average Total Inflow – 2,337.7 kaf

8000

10000

12000

Inflo

ws

(c

2000

4000

6000

8000

0

2000

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

Bighorn Lake River Release 2012


140001500016000

Bighorn Lake River Release 2011Average

1000011000120001300014000

cfs)

6000700080009000

10000

r R

elea

se (

c

10002000300040005000

Riv

er

01000


Bighorn Lake Storage 2012


3655

3660

Bighorn Lake Storage 20122011Average

Peaked on June 25 at 3635.58 feet4 42 f t b l f ll l

3640

3645

3650

et)

4.42 feet below full pool19.45 feet lower than in 2011

3625

3630

3635

evat

ion

(Fee

3605

3610

3615

3620Ele

3600

3605


BIGHORN LAKE2013 Fall and Winter Operations2013 Fall and Winter Operations

Preview

BIGHORN LAKE CURRENT CONDITIONSNovember 1 2012

Elevation 3630 85 ft – 9 15 ft below full pool

November 1, 2012

3630.85 ft – 9.15 ft below full pool8.45 feet lower than last year

Storage 919,886 af – 90% full

Inflows = 2,000 cfs

O f fTotal Outflow = 1,750 cfsRiver = 1,750 cfsBIA Canal = 0 cfsBIA Canal 0 cfs

End of October StorageEnd of October Storage

Storage Lake ElevationWater Year Acre-feet Feet

2012 919,225 3630.85

2011 1,011,836 3639.30

2010 938,169 3627.72

2009 1,063,770 3639.50

*Area-Capacity Table Changed January 1, 2011

NWS Long Range Temperature Forecasts

Nov-Dec-Jan

NWS Long Range Temperature Forecasts

Feb-Mar-Apr

NWS Long Range Precipitation Forecasts

Nov-Dec-Jan

NWS Long Range Precipitation Forecasts

Feb-Mar-Apr

3 0


2.5

3.0

es)

1.5

2.0

atio

n (In

che

1.0

Prec

ipita

0.0

0.5

Jun Jul Aug SeptJun Jul Aug Sept

Month

Average Valley Precipitation Actual Valley Precipitation

3 0


2.5

3.0

es)

1.5

2.0

atio

n (In

che

1.0

Prec

ipita

0.0

0.5

Jun Jul Aug SeptJun Jul Aug Sept

Month

Average Mountain Precipitation Actual Mountain Precipitation

Bighorn Lake ‐ Snow Water Equivalent

14

16November 7, 2012 was 55% of average

10

12

hes)

6

8

SWE (in

ch

2

4

0


Average Water Year 2012 Water Year 2013

Inflow Conditions September

Bighorn Lake• September: 119 KAF (69% of Ave)p ( )

– 6th Lowest

Boysen ReservoirBoysen Reservoir• September: 29 KAF (53% of Ave)

– 6th Lowest

Buffalo Bill Reservoir• September: 12 KAF (45% of Ave)• September: 12 KAF (45% of Ave)

– Lowest

Inflow Conditions October

Bighorn Lake• October: 132 KAF (75% of Ave)( )

– 9th Lowest

Boysen ReservoirBoysen Reservoir• October: 24 KAF (41% of Ave)

– 3rd Lowest

Buffalo Bill Reservoir• October: 13 KAF (52% of Ave)• October: 13 KAF (52% of Ave)

– Lowest

4 000 000

Bighorn Lake Cumulative InflowOctober 1 - September 30

3,500,000

4,000,000Water Year 2012 Total Inflow: 1,854 kaf (78% of average)

Average Total Inflow: 2,389 kaf

2,500,000

3,000,000

acre‐fe

et)

1,500,000

2,000,000

Inflo

w (a

500,000

1,000,000

0Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

Average Cumulative Inflow 2012 Cumulative Inflow 2013 Cumulative Inflow

1 000 000

Bighorn Lake Cumulative InflowOctober 1 - March 31

800,000

900,000

1,000,000Water Year 2012 Oct-Mar Actual Inflow: 726 kaf (121% of average)

Water Year 2013 Oct-Mar Inflow Forecast: 558 kaf (71% of average)

600,000

700,000

acre‐fe

et)

400,000

500,000

Inflo

w (

100,000

200,000

300,000

0

,

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

Average Cumulative Inflow 2012 Cumulative Inflow 2013 Cumulative Inflow

BIGHORN LAKE CURRENT CONDITIONSOperating Criteria Used for 2013 Plans


STEP 1


2012 April-October Gain = -61,400 acre-feet2012 End-of-October Storage = 919,225 acre-feetUpstream Reservoir Fall & Winter Releases =





STEP 2


Since Calculated Fall & Winter Release is < 2,000 cfs

Set End of March target elevation @ 3615Set End-of-March target elevation @ 3615

Calculated New Fall & Winter Release for Yellowtail:River = 1,904 cfs

OPERATION SCENARIOS

Most Probable Inflow Conditions

• Nov–Mar Inflow forecast at 425 kaf (61% of ave).

• Reservoir level expected to reach end of March target elevation of 3615

• River release maintained @ 1,900 cfs during November-March

• Generation during November–March would total 192 GWHrs192 GWHrs.

Maximum Probable Inflow Conditions



• River release maintained @ 1,900 cfs from November-February and gradually increased in y g yMarch to control storage

• Generation during November March would total• Generation during November–March would total 226 GWHrs.

Minimum Probable Inflow Conditions

• Nov–Mar inflow forecast at 390 kaf (56% of ave)


• River release maintained @ 1,900 cfs from November-January and gradually decrease y g yreleases in February and March to conserve storage

• Power generation during November–March would total 176 GWHrs.

3645

Bighorn LakeTop of Joint-Use Conservation - Elevation 3640 (1,020.6 kaf)

12,000

14,000

3630

3635

3640

10,000

3615

3620

3625

w (c

fs)

n Fe

et

6,000

8,000

3600

3605

3610

Riv

er F

low

Elev

atio

n in

4,000

3585

3590

3595E

0

2,000

3570

3575

3580

Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13

Most River Most Elev

3645


12,000

14,000

3630

3635

3640

10,000

3615

3620

3625

w (c

fs)

n Fe

et

6,000

8,000

3600

3605

3610

Riv

er F

low

Elev

atio

n in

4,000

3585

3590

3595E

0

2,000

3570

3575

3580


Max River Most River Max Elev Most Elev

3645


12,000

14,000

3630

3635

3640

10,000

3615

3620

3625

w (c

fs)

n Fe

et

6,000

8,000

3600

3605

3610

Riv

er F

low

Elev

atio

n in

4,000

3585

3590

3595E

0

2,000

3570

3575

3580


Most River Min River Min Elev Most Elev

3645


12,000

14,000

3630

3635

3640

10,000

3615

3620

3625

w (c

fs)

n Fe

et

6,000

8,000

3600

3605

3610

Riv

er F

low

Elev

atio

n in

4,000

3585

3590

3595E

0

2,000

3570

3575

3580


Max River Most River Min River Max Elev Min Elev Most Elev

Summary of Current Conditions

• Lower carryover in Boysen, Buffalo Bill, and Bighorn Lakeg

• NWS forecast through March is for higher chance of warmer than normal temperatureschance of warmer than normal temperatures

• Inflow forecast through March is below normalg

• Below normal valley and mountain precipitation

• Below normal inflow in Boysen, Buffalo Bill, and Bighorn Lake in September and October

Recommended Operating Plan



• River release maintained @ 1,850 cfs during November-March

• Generation during November–March would total 186 GWHrs186 GWHrs.

Recommended Operation Plan

STEP 12012 April-October Gain = -61,400 acre-feet2012 End-of-October Storage = 919,225 acre-feetUpstream Reservoir Fall & Winter Releases =




3645


12,000

14,000

3630

3635

3640

10,000

3615

3620

3625

w (c

fs)

n Fe

et

6,000

8,000

3600

3605

3610

Riv

er F

low

Elev

atio

n in

4,000

3585

3590

3595E

0

2,000

3570

3575

3580


Max River Most River Min River Max Elev Min Elev Most Elev

Reclamation’s Internet Website

http://www.usbr.gov/gp/water/

l ti d t il bl th h th HYDROMET d t t• near real-time data available through the HYDROMET data system• summaries and plots of historical data• annual reservoir operating plan publication• monthly water supply reports• monthly water supply reports• project data• snow plots• links to related internet sites

CommentsThe information presented at this meeting can be found on the Montana Area Office website at:

Comments

Montana Area Office website at:

www.usbr.gov/gp/mtao/yellowtail/index.cfm

Please mail comments to:

Ms. Paula A. Holwegner

Bureau of ReclamationBureau of Reclamation

2900 4th Avenue North, Suite 501

Billings, MT 59107

fax your comments to: 406-247-7338

or email your comments to: [email protected]

yt wy2013 fall operatoins meeting (nov 8 2012) · 08/11/2012 · water year 2012 oct-mar actual...

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