詹姆士看天下 2015/04/27

Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.

Copyright 2015 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd. Copyright 2015 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.

2015/04/27



124.26108.55

59.52

37.2654.80

2

2008

2014 () -34.64% -15.70%

-36.09% -7.28%

-21.11% -12.76%

-9.52% -5.56% -18.82% -5.58%

Bloomberg() 2014/12/312005/12/31

%



Bloomberg 1bp=0.01% :2015/4/24

3

(%) (bp) (bp) (bp)

4.29 393 388 297

6.35 466 456 335

8.29 746 723 461

3.82 243 244 218

() ()()()()



: Bloomberg 2015/4/24

4

(%)

5.88

(&)

4.29

6.35

%

%

8.29

-0.33

-0.32

-0.28

-0.09

0.01

0.31

0.37

0.43

0.59

1.29

-0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5



4.5

3.6 3.2

2.2 2.0 1.7

1.1 0.5

3.7 3.2

2.5 2.3 2.2 1.7

1.3 1.2

0.3 0.3 0

1

2

3

4

5

5


MSCI MSCI

(%)



6

l l 15

l

2.3

98.7

-5.8 -2.1

2.5 0.0

-0.5

3.0 2.1 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3

-0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -1.3 -1.9 -20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

CR

B

(%)


118.99 $1179.43 1.909% $1.0873 $57.15



4.9

3.9 3.8 3.6 3.1

2.5 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8

0.5

-0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.7

-3.5 -4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

: Bloomberg 2015/4/24 ==225=

(%)



(4.9%)

(3.9%)%

(3.8%)

(-3.5%) 7415

8



9

201%0.5~2%1.21.5

(AIIB)571.8

2014()150030%523

20153.82%2442.38%1237.71%648

()

2015/4/20

()()

8332 () 8333 () 8334 ()

NN(L)()

4908 () 4922 () 4923 ()



20000

10

4102808130QE2000071600

3(GPIF)3004IMF201632%4ESP

225

2015/4/22

0555 ()

- 0648 ()

() 0460 ()



11

24

2231962.08%

7.18%2016(12.86%)

600

2015/4/23

()

2695 ()

8925 ()

20169



12

Bloomberg



13

() Bloomberg : 2015/4/24()



14

() Bloomberg : 2015/4/24()



: Bloomberg

15

4/27() 3 -2.0% -3.0%

4/28() 4 102.5 101.3

4/29() GDP 1.0% 2.2%

0.25% 0.25%

4/30()

3 11.2% 11.3%

4 0.0% --

3 3.1% 3.6%

1.75% 1.75%

13.25% 12.75%

13.00% 14.00%

3.00% 3.00%

5/1() 4ISM 52.0 51.5

4 50.0 50.1



Q1HA

2015

IMF(SDR)

16



(60%)

Q1

QE

2

6.3%

6

2014

(40%)

(2015/4/27)

17



18

44PMI54.255.14PMI51.9

TPPTPPTPP

424



4241530

4644172008

19



IPO42325IPO10312A417325.71

4PMI14(PMI)49.2349.6250201441

42320162%20134QE

20



()

100 422(Gazprom)Gazprom100

Petrobras423201421587001986

21



3 519 503 489

2FHFA 0.7% 0.5% 0.3%

3 48.1 51.5 54.3

4Markit 54.2 55.7 55.7

3 4.0% 0.6% -1.4%

4ZEW 64.8 -- 62.4

4 -4.6 -2.5 -3.7

4Markit 51.9 52.6 52.2

4ZEW 70.2 56.5 55.1

4Markit 51.9 53.0 52.8

4GfK 10.1 -- 10.0

4IFO 103.5 104.5 103.9

: Bloomberg

22



4 49.2 49.6 49.6

3() 2293 446 -425

GDP 0.8% 0.6% 0.3%

4 104 -- 101

3 -5.5% -5.8% -3.3%

3 0.9% 0.9% 0.1%

1.80% 1.80% 1.95%

7.50% 7.50% 7.50%

4 65.4 66.0 64.4

3 11.7% 11.7% 12.0%

3 6.6% 4.5% 2.4%

3() 42.63 36.6 31.07

: Bloomberg

23



(%)

MSCI 1799.86 1.74 3.15 5.53 7.98 5.28 7.73 2117.69 1.75 2.75 4.34 7.96 2.86 13.65

1267.54 1.25 2.19 6.10 13.43 5.22 12.87 408.42 1.17 3.26 10.77 25.63 19.23 22.46

275.52 0.82 3.96 12.09 28.08 19.33 19.09 225 20020.04 1.87 3.81 12.67 30.10 14.72 38.75

4835.29 0.97 3.96 8.46 21.26 10.11 37.64

4393.69 2.48 19.03 31.04 91.83 35.83 115.74 MSCI 1060.50 1.71 10.69 7.14 8.46 10.90 6.76

MSCI 521.79 0.99 10.47 9.08 15.45 14.06 17.14 MSCI 334.92 3.66 12.29 11.09 -7.13 12.93 -13.05 MSCI 2733.50 4.54 13.66 0.12 -6.92 0.21 -15.34 MSCI 294.88 2.21 9.03 6.06 -1.34 8.90 -5.10

Bloomberg 123.35 -0.32 -0.17 -0.25 2.71 1.81 5.72 Bloomberg 134.18 -0.28 0.35 0.67 2.68 1.40 6.66 Bloomberg 140.40 -0.33 0.14 0.59 2.99 2.69 6.10

Bloomberg 149.48 0.43 1.76 3.39 -0.87 2.16 -1.68 Bloomberg 156.45 0.31 2.05 4.42 1.48 4.41 2.46 Bloomberg 163.49 0.01 0.54 1.90 3.75 2.91 4.58 ETF 48.70 1.29 2.29 3.62 2.01 3.86 3.98

Bloomberg 146.95 0.59 2.35 3.49 2.02 4.35 6.16 Bloomberg 126.20 -0.09 0.35 -0.51 -0.85 1.43 3.24 Bloomberg 153.73 0.37 0.88 1.76 5.41 4.23 12.08

Bloomberg 2015/4/24

24



(%) ()

MSCI 244.26 0.25 7.78 4.63 -4.71 2.71 -15.89 MSCI 234.61 2.26 3.28 5.26 4.82 5.18 -4.30

MSCI 105.87 1.16 2.68 6.06 5.17 3.03 4.64 MSCI 202.37 2.51 3.07 8.74 16.81 8.68 15.87 MSCI 208.28 0.29 1.81 1.42 7.86 4.18 7.61

MSCI 207.46 1.29 2.12 4.70 7.15 4.08 3.32 MSCI 148.78 3.69 3.80 8.21 12.07 5.31 21.78 MSCI 72.74 3.21 4.09 4.06 6.02 6.41 4.18 MSCI 119.92 2.23 3.17 3.17 -0.06 -2.55 -0.12 MSCI 221.64 1.66 2.32 6.49 13.76 10.88 24.47 NBI 3807.67 2.07 4.72 11.65 25.41 19.83 62.62

AMEX 173.79 -1.65 4.55 -15.67 -4.53 5.95 -24.03 REITs FTSE 14588.27 0.96 -1.21 -5.80 7.51 2.39 18.68 REITs FTSE 1777.59 1.02 -1.55 -6.48 8.34 2.39 18.93 REITs FTSE 1514.98 -0.02 0.72 7.46 30.82 20.89 39.50 REITs FTSE 1571.52 0.77 0.44 -1.45 4.93 3.32 10.75

(/) 1179.43 -2.06 -1.16 -8.86 -4.18 -0.46 -8.81 (/) 15.73 -3.32 -7.28 -12.22 -8.56 0.13 -20.01

(/) 6030.00 -0.50 -1.87 9.25 -9.87 -4.29 -10.71 (/) 65.28 2.88 18.45 33.80 -24.21 13.87 -40.83 (/) 57.15 2.53 20.29 25.36 -29.45 7.28 -43.94

CRB 224.05 0.05 4.13 2.82 -17.14 -2.57 -27.88 882.66 0.32 -2.96 -3.75 -7.24 -8.50 -24.30


25



(%)

1.0873 0.62 -0.47 -3.25 -14.19 -10.13 -21.39 118.99 -0.08 0.65 -0.45 -9.10 0.66 -14.01 1.5188 1.51 2.27 0.73 -5.61 -2.50 -9.61

0.9539 -0.19 0.45 -5.35 -0.21 4.24 -7.58 1.2174 0.59 2.62 2.46 -7.75 -4.54 -9.47 0.7824 0.54 -0.67 -1.27 -11.02 -4.29 -15.54

1079.53 0.38 2.33 0.12 -2.04 1.06 -3.73 30.8280 0.67 1.58 1.55 -1.38 2.69 -1.78

6.1948 0.05 0.17 0.98 -1.26 0.17 0.90 12922.00 -0.56 -0.08 -3.21 -6.60 -4.13 -10.21

63.5625 -1.92 -2.07 -3.35 -3.59 -0.82 -3.90 32.5600 -0.66 -0.22 0.03 -0.47 1.07 -0.57

1.3321 1.03 2.57 0.95 -4.26 -0.50 -5.56 3.5800 1.21 1.93 1.12 -8.44 -2.31 -8.67

44.2450 -0.09 0.96 -0.32 1.28 1.07 1.05

12.1222 -0.45 -2.66 -5.44 -9.83 -4.55 -12.39 2.7143 -1.34 -5.98 -13.27 -17.78 -13.97 -21.32 50.8745 2.10 13.48 34.55 -17.82 19.38 -29.76 3.7145 0.35 0.84 0.97 -10.47 -4.60 -18.32 278.91 -0.11 -1.82 -0.80 -12.75 -6.19 -19.89

4.0606 0.76 -0.66 -1.94 -14.09 -8.83 -20.80

2.9513 2.94 6.38 -12.46 -16.18 -9.95 -24.98

15.3820 -0.30 -2.85 -5.23 -11.85 -4.10 -14.85 8.8889 -0.25 -1.02 -2.97 -4.47 -4.77 -10.00


26



(%) () (bp)

30 2.6098 9.0 14.6 23.6 -43.3 -14.2 -84.3

10 1.9086 4.3 3.5 11.2 -36.0 -26.3 -77.2

0.2900 -1.8 -2.0 5.6 -18.0 -3.9 -32.7

0.1550 7.7 -8.0 -20.7 -73.7 -38.6 -137.4 0.1550 7.7 -8.0 -20.7 -73.7 -38.6 -137.4 0.4180 4.8 -9.1 -12.5 -88.8 -40.8 -159.1

1.4430 -3.5 11.5 -8.4 -107.3 -44.7 -168.0 1.3910 -6.3 9.9 1.6 -78.1 -22.0 -169.3 1.9860 -3.0 19.2 -46.4 -127.7 -70.1 -167.4

2.4570 15.6 18.4 37.2 -18.4 -6.1 -165.6 9.3100 36.0 106.0 234.0 47.0 129.0 -69.0 10.8523 18.3 -158.4 -217.5 101.7 -215.5 149.1 3.2500 -3.0 2.0 41.0 -84.0 -35.0 -224.0

8.0420 18.6 38.2 86.7 14.1 7.3 -47.2

12.6410 5.1 -45.1 92.4 56.3 27.7 4.6

5.7900 5.8 8.1 47.0 -8.3 -5.4 -43.7

2.2950 18.0 10.4 -3.7 -40.5 -31.0 -125.2 7.5510 1.8 30.8 26.8 -45.9 -24.5 -49.7

* 7.7900 -0.6 4.0 8.4 -56.8 -6.7 -106.1 9 2.4210 -15.0 -25.0 -5.5 -65.1 -18.0 -104.4


27



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詹姆士看天下 2015/04/27

Economy & Finance