詹姆士看天下 2015/07/13

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  1. 1. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. 2015/07/13
  2. 2. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. 129.30 112.59 49.40 38.90 54.34 2008 2014 () -34.64% -15.70% -36.09% -7.28% -21.11% -12.76% -9.52% -5.56% -18.82% -5.58% Bloomberg() 2015/6/302005/12/31 %
  3. 3. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. Bloomberg1bp=0.01% :2015/7/10 (%) (bp) (bp) (bp) 4.91 405 433 297 6.98 465 497 335 8.60 718 735 461 4.11 227 241 218 () () () () ()
  4. 4. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. : Bloomberg 2015/7/10 (%) 6.08 (&) 4.91 6.98 % % 8.60 -0.59 -0.55 -0.41 -0.28 -0.17 -0.12 -0.02 -0.01 0.04 0.27 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4
  5. 5. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. 2.1 -0.2 -1.1 -1.3 -1.6 -1.9 -3.3 -3.4 2.2 1.6 1.4 0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.8 -1.0 -1.6 -1.7 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 5 : Bloomberg 2015/7/10 MSCI MSCI (%)
  6. 6. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. 6 0.6 13.5 -8.4 -0.4 -7.4 -2.8 -2.9 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.8 -0.8 -1.0 -1.1 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 CRB (%) : Bloomberg 2015/7/10 122.78$1163.702.397% $1.1162 $52.74
  7. 7. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. 5.2 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.3 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.8 -1.1 -1.5 -1.6 -1.9 -2.5 -3.5 -3.7 -4.5 -4.7 -6.0 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 7 : Bloomberg 2015/7/10 ==225= (%)
  8. 8. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. (5.2%) 6910 (2.3%2.0%1.9%) 15 (-6.0%)
  9. 9. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. 9 10 300() ()35 1 720 35 EPFR () () ()2015/7/7
  10. 10. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. 10 Bloomberg 2015/6/29~2015/7/7 *1 bp0.01 Bloomberg 2009/7/1~2015/7/7 Bloomberg 2009/7/1~2015/7/7 () 8925() 2663()
  11. 11. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. 11 612 346 76 78 6 (IPO) 79 2600 300 767 7 110686554 89 649 781 (9409)6181.48 5000 2.36 7 8
  12. 12. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. 12 25.9017.832006 13075 () ()2015/7/9 bloomberg 2015/7/97/8 bloomberg 2015/7/97/9 bloomberg 2015/7/9
  13. 13. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. 13 () 0404() 4820() 4802() 4803() - 2663()
  14. 14. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. Bloomberg
  15. 15. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. () Bloomberg : 2015/7/10()
  16. 16. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. () Bloomberg : 2015/7/10()
  17. 17. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. : Bloomberg PPI 7/13() 7/13~7/156M2 11.0% 10.8% 7/14() 6 0.3% 1.2% 7ZEW 60.0 62.9 7.5% 7.5% 7/15() 6PPI 0.2% 0.5% 6 0.2% -0.2% GDP 6.8% 7.0% 0.75% 0.75% () 80 80 7/16() 6CPI 0.0% 0.2% 0.05% 0.05% 7/17() 6 110 103.6 6CPI 0.3% 0.4% 6 96.5 96.1
  18. 18. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. GoogleIntel 910 1518 () 1035 713 3 50
  19. 19. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. (60%) QE NBI (40%) (2015/7/13)
  20. 20. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. 15 15
  21. 21. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. 86 5 9 9 5 50 200 87 1
  22. 22. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. Visa MasterCard MIR2015122016
  23. 23. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. Markit6PMI 54.9 54.8 54.8 6ISM 56 56.4 55.7 5 419 427.5 409 5 0.8 0.3 0.4 5 -0.2 -0.4 1.4 5 0.0 0.1 0.9 6PMI 50.4 - 51.4 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 5 0.4% 0.4% -0.9% : Bloomberg
  24. 24. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 5 1.88 1.57 1.33 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 6CPI 1.4% 1.3 1.2 6PPI -4.8% -4.6% -4.6% 6 0.6 -4.9% 3.8% 5 2.7% 4.0% 4.1% 6PPI -2.4% -2.2% -2.1% 6CPI 0.4% 0.4% 0.6% 5 -0.4% -0.5% -2.0% 5() 153 153 150 : Bloomberg
  25. 25. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. (%) MSCI 1743.32 -0.07 -1.52 -1.62 3.88 1.97 0.42 2076.62 -0.01 -0.84 -0.76 2.65 0.86 5.54 1252.02 0.30 -1.03 -1.07 6.05 3.93 7.94 388.80 1.40 -0.15 -6.00 12.77 13.50 15.40 267.96 0.31 -0.54 -4.47 14.13 16.06 17.91 225 19779.83 -3.70 -1.94 0.53 17.11 14.67 31.97 4849.39 -3.83 -1.54 1.91 10.77 11.56 29.40 3877.80 5.18 -23.58 -4.22 22.03 22.05 92.87 MSCI 932.85 -3.26 -4.76 -10.43 -2.82 -2.45 -11.88 MSCI 452.99 -4.08 -6.11 -12.28 -2.12 -0.98 -4.35 MSCI 305.22 -0.26 -1.80 -5.91 2.37 2.92 -29.77 MSCI 2457.44 -1.26 -3.00 -5.36 -6.87 -9.91 -28.42 MSCI 268.85 -1.65 -0.64 -6.89 -1.53 -0.71 -19.85 Bloomberg 120.79 -0.01 0.64 -1.89 -1.50 -0.30 2.53 Bloomberg 129.79 -0.55 -0.42 -3.37 -2.09 -1.91 1.07 Bloomberg 135.23 -0.12 0.25 -3.50 -2.35 -1.09 0.69 Bloomberg 148.30 -0.28 -0.85 0.11 1.89 1.35 -4.11 Bloomberg 154.45 -0.41 -0.65 -0.67 3.19 3.08 -1.03 Bloomberg 161.31 -0.17 -0.63 -1.71 1.33 1.54 2.11 ETF 47.12 -0.59 -2.75 -2.38 1.51 0.49 -3.76 Bloomberg 144.55 -0.02 0.64 -0.93 2.79 2.64 0.49 Bloomberg 124.82 0.04 -0.03 -0.90 -0.19 0.32 -1.90 Bloomberg 149.51 0.27 1.14 -2.51 0.91 1.37 5.95 Bloomberg 2015/7/10
  26. 26. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. (%) 1.1162 0.43 -1.27 5.42 -5.38 -7.92 -18.20 122.78 0.01 0.63 -2.05 -3.85 -2.34 -17.21 1.5517 -0.34 -0.54 5.73 2.35 -0.39 -9.17 0.9387 0.18 -1.13 4.03 8.51 5.77 -5.13 1.2658 -0.67 -2.86 -0.73 -5.75 -8.41 -15.57 0.7446 -1.02 -4.02 -1.78 -8.72 -8.82 -20.64 1129.52 -0.58 -1.17 -2.84 -4.17 -3.50 -9.92 31.0010 -0.39 -0.04 1.11 2.81 2.22 -3.29 6.2094 -0.06 0.01 0.13 -0.14 -0.05 -0.04 13314.00 0.05 0.20 -2.35 -5.26 -6.86 -12.29 63.4000 0.06 0.70 -1.70 -2.00 -0.56 -5.04 33.9300 -0.47 -0.84 -4.14 -3.41 -3.11 -5.38 1.3511 -0.39 -0.37 1.50 -1.32 -1.91 -8.12 3.7940 -0.38 -1.05 -2.37 -5.36 -7.93 -16.25 45.0930 -0.10 0.03 -1.05 -0.88 -0.98 -3.70 12.4503 -1.09 -0.55 -2.65 -7.55 -7.23 -14.40 2.6667 0.87 2.43 0.00 -14.42 -12.57 -20.76 56.4185 -0.80 -3.37 -7.35 15.57 7.64 -39.16 3.7438 0.69 -1.87 1.06 -3.05 -5.54 -19.00 279.40 1.33 -1.29 0.11 -3.53 -6.72 -19.08 3.9802 1.34 -0.25 4.52 -4.40 -7.21 -18.71 3.1602 -0.83 -1.33 -2.68 -15.39 -15.90 -29.73 15.7137 0.10 -2.05 -2.39 -7.27 -6.40 -17.82 9.1210 -0.23 -1.01 -2.99 -5.80 -7.19 -10.68 : Bloomberg 2015/7/10
  27. 27. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. (%) () (bp) 30 3.1899 0.3 8.7 61.7 69.1 43.8 -14.7 10 2.3972 1.5 0.5 47.0 49.7 22.6 -11.9 0.4470 -4.1 -7.1 10.4 17.9 11.8 -9.0 0.8980 10.7 -8.3 74.3 40.6 35.7 -30.0 0.8980 10.7 -8.3 74.3 40.6 35.7 -30.0 1.2830 4.0 -3.0 84.9 50.3 45.7 -35.5 2.1340 -11.4 -11.3 86.8 25.5 24.4 -81.1 2.1290 -8.3 -11.0 89.7 40.6 51.8 -69.6 2.8440 -9.8 -13.1 123.3 20.1 15.7 -114.1 3.0480 -14.4 -16.4 75.4 71.9 53.0 -34.4 9.4200 0.0 -20.0 97.0 208.0 140.0 29.0 10.8179 -3.7 34.1 -12.8 -268.8 -218.9 213.7 3.7200 -12.0 -25.0 47.0 24.0 12.0 -55.0 8.2270 -4.2 -14.3 52.2 59.7 25.8 -9.3 12.5950 7.8 -6.3 1.6 42.6 23.1 47.8 6.0120 -5.1 -25.5 25.9 38.1 16.8 30.2 2.5020 -1.8 3.5 42.7 -3.3 -10.3 -62.3 8.3250 8.8 -37.0 107.3 50.5 52.9 23.6 * 7.8060 0.2 -8.1 0.8 3.6 -5.1 -96.7 9 2.7990 -13.2 -25.8 13.6 33.0 7.0 -99.0 : Bloomberg 2015/7/10
  28. 28. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. (%) () MSCI 217.71 -1.58 -4.52 -7.50 -1.37 -8.45 -28.32 MSCI 218.37 -1.67 -5.18 -4.16 -0.16 -2.10 -13.71 MSCI 104.13 -0.31 -1.80 -0.68 4.85 1.33 0.86 MSCI 198.50 -0.30 -0.62 -0.43 8.55 6.60 9.31 MSCI 205.98 2.17 1.58 -0.75 2.68 3.03 3.19 MSCI 198.56 -0.76 -3.48 -3.63 2.11 -0.38 -2.73 MSCI 142.08 -0.96 -3.17 -2.28 2.36 0.57 7.42 MSCI 70.91 0.10 0.00 0.68 3.96 3.73 -1.57 MSCI 114.66 1.64 0.36 0.36 -5.37 -6.83 -6.15 MSCI 222.30 1.37 1.37 1.24 8.78 11.21 17.58 NBI 3899.00 0.59 2.43 4.05 18.28 22.71 44.98 AMEX 141.69 -4.84 -9.08 -16.63 -23.21 -13.62 -42.69 REITs FTSE 13951.01 1.82 1.15 -3.90 -6.85 -2.08 7.04 REITs FTSE 1695.11 2.15 1.48 -4.19 -7.72 -2.36 7.24 REITs FTSE 1451.66 1.43 1.10 -5.69 10.97 15.84 24.91 REITs FTSE 1414.05 -3.10 -5.31 -8.54 -10.02 -7.03 -7.41 (/) 1163.70 -0.41 -1.66 -3.07 -5.58 -1.93 -13.19 (/) 15.58 -0.76 -3.19 -4.36 -8.70 -0.90 -25.57 (/) 5590.00 -2.93 -7.30 -7.44 -8.21 -11.27 -21.95 (/) 58.73 -2.64 -9.75 -0.50 23.72 0.54 -45.96 (/) 52.74 -7.36 -13.48 -0.06 13.05 -2.61 -48.55 CRB 218.25 -2.81 -2.36 0.66 -0.66 -5.09 -26.53 939.06 -1.16 5.09 5.38 -2.45 -2.65 -8.46 : Bloomberg 2015/7/10
  29. 29. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd. / (02)770-88888 6633 (03)620-5699 897 (04)3700-7988 360171 (07)972-1188 39 Copyright 2015 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd.
  30. 30. Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise Ltd.