詹姆士看天下 2015/03/23

Copyright 2015 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.

2015/03/23


124.26108.55

59.52

37.2654.80

2

2008

2014 () -34.64% -15.70%

-36.09% -7.28%

-21.11% -12.76%

-9.52% -5.56% -18.82% -5.58%

Bloomberg() 2014/12/312005/12/31

%


Bloomberg 1bp=0.01% :2015/3/20

3

(%) (bp) (bp) (bp)

4.34 375 393 297

6.61 468 481 335

9.66 860 861 461

3.99 248 255 218

() ()()()()


: Bloomberg 2015/3/20

4

(%)

5.73

(&)

4.34

6.61

%

%

9.66

102%

-0.50

-0.05

-0.02

0.33

0.68

1.04

1.05

1.11

1.39

2.39

-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3


6.1 5.4 5.0 4.7

3.2 3.2 2.7

1.1

4.7 4.6 4.5

3.2 3.2 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

5


MSCI MSCI

(%)

Copyright 2015 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.6

l 102%

-8.7

-28.4

-19.8

2.1 3.9 1.6 3.2 5.0 3.8 3.5 3.1 3.1 2.5 1.8 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.5

-35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5

10

CR

B

(%)


120.04

$1182.63

1.930%

$1.0821 $46.57


7.7 7.2 6.9

4.2 3.8 3.4 3.3 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.2

0.3

-0.1 -0.8 -0.8

-1.8

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

7

: Bloomberg 2015/3/20 ==225=

(%)


(7.7%)

7.5%

(7.2%)3600200858

(6.9%)7%

(-1.8%)

(-0.8%)24

8


QE

9

QE1612000

212.4318.6

16IMF5.8103

383

12000

2015/3/17

()

2695 ()

8925 ()


20000

10

122515351124.56

3000400013

/

2015/3/17

0555 ()

- 0648 ()

() 0460 ()

Copyright 2015 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd. 11

(FED)FED18000Nasdaq5000

FED121.125%0.625%FED6

3FEDFED

FED2015122.6%~3.0%2.3%~2.7%FED20172%QE

2015/3/19

-

0309 ()

3829 ()

8342 ()

() 0484 ()

2015


12

Bloomberg


13

() Bloomberg : 2015/3/20()


14

() Bloomberg : 2015/3/20()


: Bloomberg

32CPIGDP

15

3/23()2 492 482

3 -6.0 -6.7

3/24()

2CPI 0.2% -0.7%

2 46.7 48.1

3 54.6 55.1

3 51.5 51.0

3 51.5 51.1

3/25()2 0.2% 2.8%

3IFO 103.0 102.5

3/26() 4Gfk 9.8 9.7

3/27()

2014GDP 2.4% 2.2%

3 92.0 91.2

2CPI 2.3% 2.4%

2 -1.4% -2.0%


121.125%0.625%QE

QE400(MLF)5000

10

16


(60%)

2

QE

(40%)

102% 6

(2015/3/23)

17


OECDOECD1870OECD44.3

18

18FED6121.125%0.625%

2015 2016

3.1 (3.1) 3.0 (3.0)

1.4 (1.1) 2.0 (1.7)

1.0 (0.8) 1.4 (1.0)

7.0 (7.1) 6.9 (6.9)

7.7 (6.4) 8.0 (6.6)

OECD(%)


19

0.25%180.1%0.25%1003003410.75%

19


80 ()

20


7.5%7.5%

3199213%62%

21


2 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

2 0.1% 0.2% -0.3%

2 89.7 104.0 108.1

2 109.2 106.5 106.0

FOMC() 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%

2CPI -0.3% -0.3% -0.3%

3ZEW 54.8 59.4 53.0

ILO(11~1) 5.7% 5.6% 5.7%

() -0.25% -- -0.10%

() -0.75% -0.75% -0.75%

() 1.25% 1.00% 1.25%

: Bloomberg

22


2() 0.42 0.99 1.18

2 2.4% 0.3% 17.0%

2 -3.6% 3.2% -9.0%

2 3.9% 3.4% 3.4%

2 -2.06% -0.80% -0.39%

7.5% 7.5% 7.5%

3IBGEIPCA-15 1.24% 1.23% 1.33%

1 4.7% 3.0% 2.4%

7.50% 7.50% 7.50%

2 -1.6% -0.6% 0.9%

2 -7.7% -5.8% -4.5%

2 -1.3% 0.0% 0.1%

: Bloomberg

23


(%)

MSCI 1774.57 3.18 0.24 2.93 3.40 3.80 7.33 2108.1 2.66 -0.07 1.25 6.32 2.39 12.94

1266.37 2.78 2.80 5.32 13.20 5.12 6.09 404.01 1.87 4.92 17.42 18.17 17.95 23.21

270.44 0.48 3.51 17.02 20.45 17.13 16.44 225 19560.22 1.59 5.92 10.92 20.70 12.09 37.51

4713.76 2.36 4.12 9.09 12.63 7.35 34.77

3617.32 7.25 11.41 19.28 56.61 11.83 76.66 MSCI 969.53 3.19 -1.42 1.85 -6.13 1.38 2.60

MSCI 476.87 2.29 0.62 5.25 1.34 4.24 12.11 MSCI 302.07 6.69 -4.10 -2.12 -21.94 1.85 -20.43 MSCI 2466.04 5.39 -6.40 -9.64 -25.28 -9.59 -17.49 MSCI 273.09 5.03 -4.80 -0.16 -12.43 0.86 -9.12

Bloomberg 123.21 1.11 1.28 1.82 4.43 1.69 6.42 Bloomberg 133.95 -0.02 0.14 1.45 2.80 1.23 7.37 Bloomberg 139.66 1.05 1.07 2.45 3.94 2.14 7.45

Bloomberg 146.35 0.33 -0.96 0.38 -3.64 0.02 -2.59 Bloomberg 152.90 -0.05 -0.14 2.79 -1.06 2.04 1.22 Bloomberg 162.68 -0.50 0.30 2.47 2.08 2.39 5.25 ETF 48.37 2.39 0.31 -0.07 -1.77 3.16 2.11

Bloomberg 142.59 0.68 0.22 1.65 -0.45 1.25 5.34 Bloomberg 124.72 1.39 -0.67 0.53 -1.25 0.24 4.08 Bloomberg 151.92 1.04 0.91 3.43 6.10 3.01 12.46

Bloomberg 2015/3/20

24


(%) ()

MSCI 228.17 4.67 -3.98 -5.75 -19.59 -4.05 -16.11 MSCI 230.43 2.13 -3.11 3.17 -3.93 3.31 -3.56

MSCI 104.96 3.15 1.48 1.36 1.46 2.14 4.17 MSCI 200.13 2.46 1.45 7.57 13.00 7.48 13.23 MSCI 206.04 2.37 -0.99 1.77 6.03 3.06 10.75

MSCI 206.93 2.48 -0.21 2.76 3.94 3.82 4.91 MSCI 147.01 3.19 -0.31 2.17 7.84 4.06 17.91 MSCI 70.40 2.31 -1.25 1.27 -0.73 2.98 0.49 MSCI 117.86 4.52 -1.87 -1.87 -0.72 -4.23 1.45 MSCI 221.13 4.62 3.70 10.68 13.45 10.63 22.91 NBI 3837.60 6.18 8.56 24.34 35.02 20.77 48.91

AMEX 169.82 5.71 -8.25 10.64 -17.78 3.53 -28.06 REITs FTSE 15212.39 5.38 1.70 5.45 20.70 6.77 27.31 REITs FTSE 1861.65 5.62 1.81 5.92 22.78 7.23 28.53 REITs FTSE 1522.78 2.94 3.79 21.16 30.40 21.52 46.61 REITs FTSE 1553.65 2.92 -0.87 3.31 6.14 2.15 16.30

(/) 1182.63 2.08 -1.61 -1.15 -2.72 -0.19 -10.94 (/) 16.75 7.00 3.14 6.85 -5.60 6.63 -17.31

(/) 6045.00 3.18 6.18 -5.55 -11.56 -4.05 -5.99 (/) 55.32 1.19 -8.14 -9.87 -43.77 -3.51 -48.03 (/) 46.57 3.86 -7.49 -17.60 -49.61 -12.58 -53.16

CRB 214.11 1.62 -3.54 -10.27 -22.93 -6.89 -28.49 901.55 2.54 -1.94 -8.54 -2.02 -6.54 -21.75


25


(%)

1.0821 3.10 -4.92 -11.52 -15.78 -10.56 -21.47 120.04 1.12 -0.84 0.01 -9.33 -0.22 -14.70 1.4949 1.39 -2.92 -4.11 -8.63 -4.03 -9.42

0.9752 3.02 -3.79 0.88 -3.62 1.96 -9.37 1.2552 1.81 -0.17 -7.36 -12.01 -7.42 -10.42 0.7775 1.81 -0.85 -4.43 -12.37 -4.89 -13.98

1122.88 0.52 -0.96 -2.37 -7.31 -2.84 -4.16 31.4760 0.46 0.85 0.33 -4.00 0.57 -2.96

6.2046 0.87 0.83 0.29 -1.03 0.01 0.39 13124.00 0.61 -2.28 -5.20 -8.75 -5.61 -12.79

62.4688 0.79 -0.40 1.25 -2.64 0.92 -1.82 32.5600 1.11 0.03 1.04 -0.92 1.07 -0.54

1.3787 1.01 -1.34 -4.36 -7.88 -3.86 -7.32 3.7333 -1.30 -2.31 -6.57 -13.08 -6.32 -11.65

44.9500 -1.49 -1.57 -0.71 -0.71 -0.51 0.33

12.0189 3.69 -3.13 -3.71 -7.05 -3.73 -9.40 2.5742 2.49 -4.69 -10.08 -12.95 -9.29 -13.40 59.2934 4.73 4.67 -6.15 -34.74 2.43 -38.99 3.8184 3.40 -4.11 -8.73 -14.75 -7.20 -20.22 280.25 3.76 -4.37 -8.45 -13.26 -6.64 -19.34

4.1011 3.15 -4.45 -10.87 -16.48 -9.73 -20.60

3.2308 0.55 -11.18 -17.51 -25.78 -17.74 -27.95

15.0562 2.79 -0.17 -2.62 -11.81 -2.02 -11.93 8.7980 -0.18 -1.07 -2.81 -4.20 -3.79 -9.49


26


(%) () (bp)

30 2.5059 -19.3 -20.8 -24.8 -77.8 -24.6 -115.7

10 1.9303 -18.4 -18.1 -23.2 -64.4 -24.1 -84.1

0.3290 -8.1 -6.2 -2.7 -23.5 0.0 -27.2

0.1840 -7.3 -18.3 -40.8 -85.9 -35.7 -146.2 0.1840 -7.3 -18.3 -40.8 -85.9 -35.7 -146.2 0.4420 -5.5 -24.2 -44.6 -94.8 -38.4 -174.5

1.2040 5.5 -37.3 -75.0 -116.6 -68.6 -222.4 1.1810 3.1 -32.1 -52.2 -102.1 -43.0 -218.5 1.6330 7.3 -59.4 -109.2 -154.0 -105.4 -274.3

2.2590 -19.8 -7.2 -31.7 -89.9 -25.9 -206.3 8.1100 -40.0 23.0 1.0 -128.0 9.0 -298.0 12.5949 -7.1 38.1 -100.4 304.9 -41.2 327.9 3.2400 -34.0 -2.0 -49.0 -139.0 -36.0 -251.0

7.7750 -21.7 13.0 -22.4 -43.3 -19.4 -82.3

13.1820 -22.2 25.6 62.1 158.5 81.8 -17.3

5.7440 -35.8 11.4 -13.7 -17.3 -10.0 -59.4

2.2070 -15.0 -17.3 -51.0 -82.3 -39.8 -132.8 7.4330 7.4 22.7 -62.4 -76.7 -36.3 -63.8 7.7460 -5.2 5.1 -21.6 -71.0 -11.1 -107.5

9 2.6840 0.9 -2.4 -7.7 -78.8 8.3 -124.2


27


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詹姆士看天下 2015/03/23

Economy & Finance