詹姆士看天下 2015/03/09

Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.

2015/03/09


124.26108.55

59.52

37.2654.80

2

2008

2014 () -34.64% -15.70%

-36.09% -7.28%

-21.11% -12.76%

-9.52% -5.56% -18.82% -5.58%

Bloomberg() 2014/12/312005/12/31

%


Bloomberg 1bp=0.01% :2015/3/6

3

(%) (bp) (bp) (bp)

4.18 375 364 297

6.50 446 442 335

9.51 862 822 461

4.06 248 236 218

() ()()()()


: Bloomberg 2015/3/6

4

(%)

5.81

(&)

4.18

6.50

%

%

9.51

-1.42

-1.39

-1.23

-1.13

-0.64

-0.43

-0.28

-0.19

-0.08

0.12

-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5


-0.6 -0.7 -0.8 -1.1 -1.9

-2.7 -3.1

-7.2

-0.9 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -2.0 -2.0

-2.8 -3.2 -3.3 -4.2

-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0

5


MSCI MSCI

(%)

Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.6

l l 9711 l

12.5

19.8 18.2

-3.8 -0.3 -1.8 -2.5

2.2 0.1

-0.7 -1.0 -1.1 -1.2 -2.6 -2.7 -3.1 -3.2 -3.2 -4.4 -7.3 -10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

CR

B

(%)


120.83

$1167.19

2.241% $49.61 $1.0844


1.8 1.4 1.3 1.2

0.9 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1

-0.5 -0.5 -0.8

-1.2 -1.6

-2.1 -2.1 -2.7

-3.1

-4.6 -4.8

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

7

: Bloomberg 2015/3/6 ==225=

(%)


(1.8%)

(1.4%)102000

(-4.8%)IPO

(-4.6%)Akbank

8

Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd. 9

311

335(3)(4)MSCI44%7

PMI2149.750.7PMI49.949.7

2015/3/3

-

0302 ()

- 4220 () 4202 ()

() 0404 ()

MSCI

10.5611.04


10

20146%125.5%22511.2420146

QE17

9.5%832530

2015/3/3

ING(L)Renta()

4924 () 4925 () 4932 () 4933 () 4934 ()

()

2652 () 2653 () 2654 ())

WIP()

4603 ()


REITs

11

(REITs)123.54%MSCI2.35%REITs2(19.78%)(27.06%)

100.383%REITs122.99%2.6%REITsREITs

REITsREITsREITsREITs

REITs

2015/3/4

8928 ()

(REITs)REITsREITs


12

Bloomberg


13

() Bloomberg : 2015/3/6()


14

() Bloomberg : 2015/3/6 ()


: Bloomberg

CPI

15

3/9()

3Sentix 15.0 12.4

1() 195 191

2 98 98

3/10()2NFIB 99.0 97.9

2 1.0% 0.8%

3/11()1 1.3% 0.5%

2.00% 2.00%

3/12()2 0.4% -0.8%

2.00% 2.00%

3/13()

3 95.7 95.4

1 0.1% -0.2%

14.00% 15.00%


9600QE

97200311

QE1200

16


(60%)

2

MSCI44%7 3600

(40%)

(2015/3/9)

17


1223223

CampbellHarris4234151,660520103

5000215500050002000

18


9 (ECB)960020169ECB20151%1.5%1.92.1%1.5%1.8%

250113.7%9

19


77%111.628.1427001.362.1%2.3%1.68.047%7% 2257.5%22281GDP3%

20


33

412.25%212.75%

1.5

21


ISM 52.9 53.0 53.5

2Markit 55.1 54.3 54.3

2ADP 21.2 21.9 25

2ISM 56.9 56.5 56.7

1 -0.2% 0.2% -3.5%

2 29.5 23.5 23.9

2 5.5% 5.6% 5.7%

2Markit 51.0 51.1 51.1

1 11.2% 11.4% 11.3%

1 3.7% 2.3% 3.1%

2 -0.3% -0.4% -0.6%

GDP 0.9% 0.9% 0.9%

2Markit 51.1 50.9 50.9

: Bloomberg

22


2.8% 4.0% 5.5%

2 50.7 50.1 50.1

2 51.8 -- 51.0

() 7.50 -- 7.75%

2 120.2 -- 120.2

GDP 2.5% 2.5% 2.7%

2.25% 2.00% 2.25%

1.50% 1.75% 2.00%

2 7.55% 7.42% 7.24%

2 16.7% 16.7% 15.0%

12.75% 12.75% 12.25%

1 -5.2% -5.0% -2.9%

2 90.3 91.1 91.1

: Bloomberg

23


(%)

MSCI 1741.99 -1.74 1.62 1.16 0.51 1.89 3.62 2071.26 -1.58 1.20 0.56 4.17 0.60 10.29

1217.52 -1.29 1.81 2.48 5.09 1.06 1.18 394.18 0.50 6.38 15.77 14.30 15.08 18.35

267.12 0.82 7.09 17.65 17.14 15.70 12.23 225 18971 0.92 7.11 6.50 20.46 8.71 24.20

4549.37 -0.16 3.42 4.87 9.65 3.60 25.01

3241.19 -2.09 4.72 13.48 39.31 0.20 57.50 MSCI 971.23 -1.92 -0.16 0.60 -10.69 1.56 0.47

MSCI 477.28 -0.41 1.77 4.25 -3.16 4.33 8.21 MSCI 303.87 -3.04 0.85 -7.19 -25.62 2.46 -21.06 MSCI 2463.4 -7.18 -6.46 -11.41 -30.23 -9.69 -15.62 MSCI 275.19 -3.10 -1.98 -1.68 -16.37 1.63 -10.44

Bloomberg 120.96 -1.23 -1.36 0.71 2.02 -0.16 4.23 Bloomberg 133.80 -0.19 0.26 1.81 2.55 1.11 7.24 Bloomberg 137.51 -1.39 -1.02 1.38 1.60 0.57 5.58

Bloomberg 147.51 -0.64 0.69 -0.33 -3.53 0.81 -2.07 Bloomberg 154.01 -0.08 1.40 1.85 -0.98 2.79 1.75 Bloomberg 163.68 0.12 1.76 2.37 2.78 3.03 6.00 ETF 47.20 -1.42 0.58 -2.96 -5.16 0.66 -1.89

Bloomberg 142.55 -0.43 0.30 -0.01 -1.45 1.22 4.74 Bloomberg 124.52 -1.13 -1.49 -1.01 -1.98 0.08 2.92 Bloomberg 151.65 -0.28 0.13 2.25 4.98 2.82 12.05

Bloomberg 2015/3/6

24


(%) ()

MSCI 228.22 -3.18 -4.75 -2.09 -21.73 -4.03 -16.57 MSCI 231.56 -3.34 0.73 2.25 -5.53 3.82 -5.87

MSCI 102.53 -1.22 1.66 -1.45 -1.63 -0.22 0.14 MSCI 196.22 -0.89 4.09 5.95 8.97 5.38 7.64 MSCI 205.43 -1.98 1.12 2.24 4.68 2.76 8.77

MSCI 202.94 -1.95 1.69 1.49 0.47 1.82 0.36 MSCI 145.35 -1.24 4.13 2.33 6.42 2.88 15.61 MSCI 70.05 -2.84 -0.95 0.65 -1.21 2.47 -0.57 MSCI 114.52 -4.15 -4.34 -4.34 -4.86 -6.94 -0.71 MSCI 210.71 -1.20 3.42 2.25 8.70 5.41 15.09 NBI 3583.55 1.53 9.25 8.80 27.15 12.78 32.26

AMEX 166.60 -13.29 -14.76 -5.23 -25.85 1.57 -31.28 REITs FTSE 14151.20 -3.51 -4.56 -0.05 5.62 -0.68 18.19 REITs FTSE 1720.34 -3.67 -5.13 -0.14 6.27 -0.91 18.73 REITs FTSE 1475.19 -0.23 2.68 20.96 24.79 17.72 37.22 REITs FTSE 1556.71 -1.37 -0.60 3.37 0.90 2.35 14.24

(/) 1167.19 -3.79 -5.41 -2.12 -8.02 -1.49 -13.60 (/) 15.90 -4.20 -4.92 -2.84 -16.43 1.22 -25.94

(/) 5745.00 -2.54 1.68 -10.94 -17.63 -8.81 -18.51 (/) 59.73 -4.55 3.34 -13.52 -40.76 4.19 -44.75 (/) 49.61 -0.30 -4.02 -24.65 -46.82 -6.87 -51.15

CRB 220.14 -1.76 -3.41 -12.32 -22.97 -4.27 -28.34 893.16 -3.20 -2.84 -8.05 -7.77 -7.41 -22.16


25


(%)

1.0844 -3.14 -4.17 -11.96 -15.91 -10.37 -21.77 120.83 -1.00 -1.42 -0.12 -12.25 -0.87 -14.70 1.5037 -2.60 -1.35 -3.94 -6.63 -3.47 -10.17

0.9860 -3.32 -6.00 -1.00 -5.12 0.84 -10.69 1.2624 -0.87 -0.77 -9.06 -13.07 -7.95 -12.98 0.7716 -1.18 -1.03 -6.97 -16.86 -5.61 -15.12

1098.81 -0.07 -0.82 1.71 -6.83 -0.71 -3.16 31.4350 0.07 0.04 -0.72 -4.87 0.70 -3.61

6.2631 0.10 -0.30 -1.46 -1.94 -0.92 -2.31 12976.00 -0.34 -2.74 -4.52 -9.63 -4.53 -11.51

62.1712 -0.54 -0.70 -0.62 -2.84 1.40 -0.67 32.5780 -0.68 0.23 1.31 -1.56 1.02 -1.02

1.3776 -1.08 -1.79 -4.21 -8.60 -3.78 -8.30 3.6500 -1.27 -2.82 -4.23 -13.04 -4.18 -10.64

44.0850 0.02 0.22 1.25 -1.17 1.44 1.02

12.0438 -3.30 -4.48 -4.18 -10.25 -3.93 -11.97 2.6236 -4.60 -5.68 -13.53 -17.15 -11.00 -16.90 60.4300 2.14 10.64 -10.98 -38.84 0.51 -40.13 3.8095 -2.81 -3.58 -11.31 -14.90 -6.98 -20.89 281.87 -4.25 -4.07 -11.82 -13.30 -7.18 -20.89

4.0993 -3.45 -4.79 -12.05 -16.44 -9.69 -20.90

3.0640 -7.84 -9.21 -15.13 -26.00 -13.26 -24.15

15.4986 -3.67 -4.20 -7.20 -15.23 -4.82 -15.14 8.7595 -0.39 -1.14 -2.32 -4.07 -3.36 -10.14


26


(%) () (bp)

30 2.8409 25.1 31.2 -12.6 -38.5 8.9 -84.9

10 2.2414 24.8 28.5 -6.5 -21.7 7.0 -49.6

0.3960 6.1 5.7 -2.5 -14.7 6.7 -22.6

0.3930 6.5 1.8 -38.7 -53.5 -14.8 -125.4 0.3930 6.5 1.8 -38.7 -53.5 -14.8 -125.4 0.6930 8.9 7.9 -33.8 -56.5 -13.3 -152.4

1.3170 -1.4 -26.1 -66.0 -93.7 -57.3 -212.5 1.2950 3.5 -19.4 -53.8 -74.8 -31.6 -210.9 1.7600 -6.8 -65.4 -98.7 -129.8 -92.7 -292.8

2.4600 30.3 24.9 -16.1 -46.0 -5.8 -175.5 8.3900 1.0 77.0 28.0 -52.0 37.0 -215.0 12.7115 -21.7 31.8 106.4 322.2 -29.5 392.2 3.0900 18.0 9.0 -50.0 -139.0 -51.0 -266.0

7.9690 34.5 52.0 20.4 -2.0 0.0 -48.8

12.9690 68.1 50.8 86.5 181.7 60.5 3.4

5.9940 36.2 37.8 -2.0 24.3 15.0 -28.8

2.3320 -2.3 6.5 -39.2 -73.7 -27.3 -123.8 7.4830 42.1 32.7 -36.8 -47.9 -31.3 -58.3 7.7070 -2.1 0.3 -23.1 -81.7 -15.0 -108.6

9 2.6110 -0.2 9.0 -14.1 -89.1 1.0 -131.5


27


/

(02)770-88888 6633 (03)620-5699 897 (04)3700-7988 360171 (07)972-1188 39

103027

詹姆士看天下 2015/03/09

Economy & Finance