詹姆士看天下 2015/11/16

Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.


2015/11/16


122.03

103.20

35.87

90.76

39.7349.50

2

2008

2014

() -34.64% -15.70%

-36.09% -7.28% -20.81% -- -18.82% -5.58% -21.11% -12.76% -9.52% -5.56%

Bloomberg() 2015/8/312005/12/31

%


Bloomberg1bp=0.01% :2015/11/13

3

(%) (bp) (bp) (bp)

5.21 468 485 297

8.17 582 624 335

8.36 686 704 461

4.03 238 248 218

()()()()()


-2.50

-1.43

-1.16

-0.61

-0.54

-0.28

-0.16

0.23

0.29

0.53

!3# !2# !1# 0# 1#

1

16

-6

8

238

9

6

5.0

14

5.0

: Bloomberg 2015/11/13

4

(%)

4.03 (&)

5.21

8.17 %

%

8.36


-2.2-2.9-3.2-3.3-3.7-3.8

-4.3-4.5

-1.1-1.4-2.0-2.1

-2.5-2.7-2.8-3.5

-4.1

-5.9-7-6-5-4-3-2-10

5


MSCI MSCI(%)

Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.6

!2.6%

!19.5%

!5.9%

!0.5%

!8.0%

!3.3%!3.2%

1.9% 1.2% 1.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.3%

!0.1%!0.2%!0.2%!0.5%!0.7%!1.6%!2.1%!3.5%

!25%

!20%

!15%

!10%

!5%

0%

5%

CRB

(%)


120.62

$1083.9 2.2568% $1.1006

$40.74

l


1.7$

%0.1$ %0.2$ %0.3$%0.5$

%0.9$

%1.6$%1.8$

%2.1$ %2.1$ %2.3$ %2.3$ %2.5$ %2.5$%2.8$

%3.1$ %3.1$ %3.3$ %3.3$ %3.5$ %3.5$ %3.6$ %3.7$%4.2$

%4.6$-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

7

: Bloomberg 2015/11/13 ==225=

(%)


(1.7%)810

7.5%

(-4.6%)

(-4.2%)MSCI

8


9

Bloomberg


10

()Bloomberg : 2015/11/13()


11

()Bloomberg : 2015/11/13()


11/16()

11 -5.00 -11.36

10 0.1% 0.0%

GDP -0.3% -1.2%

11/17()

10 0.2% -0.2%

10 0.1% -0.2%

10 1.0% 1.0%

11ZEW 6.0 1.9

11/18() 10 115.5 120.6

11/19()10 0.5% -0.2%

11/20() 11 -7.5 -7.7

: Bloomberg12

10CPI10CPI


13101023600MSCI1214ADR11MSCI

108

76105

13


(60%)

12QE

23600MSCI1214ADR11MSCI

(40%)

12

(2015/11/16)

14


OECDOECD3%2.9%20160.3%3.3%2%

12 1010$1,360$1,22012%

15


1224860 13100ISIS

16


MSCIADRMSCI 11MSCIMSCI2.082.526.15%36.99%14ADR121

112015 11 Amazon 1,229.4 2014 52.70% 912

17

10(FDI)15

10316.25.9


Samarco Mineracao SA Samarco Samarco 9 Samarco 119820091019256315

18


10 1.6 1.9 1.3

9 0.5% 0.1% 0.1%

MBA -1.3% -- -0.8%

10NFIB 96.1 96.4 96.1

10 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

10 -0.4% 0.2% -0.5%

11 93.1 91.5 90.0

10 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%

9 1.8% 1.8% 1.4%

9ILO 5.3% 5.4% 5.4%

GDP 1.7% 1.8% 1.6%

GDP 1.2% 1.1% 1.1%

GDP 1.6% 1.7% 1.5%

: Bloomberg

19


10 1.3% 1.5% 1.6%

10 -5.9% -5.9% -5.9%

10M2 13.5% 13.2% 13.1%

10 11.0% 10.9% 10.9%

10 5.6% 5.8% 5.7%

10 7.5% 3.1% -5.7%

10 -3.8% -3.5% -4.0%

10 5.9% 6.2% 6.2%

9 -6.2% -7.2% -6.9%

GDP -4.1% -4.4% -4.6%

9() 96 89 87

9() 1 -8,000 3,000

9 0.9% 2.5% -0.3%

: Bloomberg

20


(%)

MSCI 1654.30 -2.94 -1.74 -5.14 -8.45 -3.24 -3.66 2023.04 -3.63 -0.50 -3.28 -4.70 -1.74 -0.82

1146.55 -4.43 -1.36 -5.45 -7.83 -4.83 -2.32 369.53 -2.74 1.76 -4.33 -6.79 7.88 10.10

258.36 -2.50 2.65 -3.11 -5.77 11.90 16.38 225 19596.91 1.72 7.13 -4.50 -0.69 12.30 12.04

4712.20 0.67 1.97 -5.64 -2.34 7.31 14.55

3580.84 -0.26 5.59 -9.70 -16.89 10.70 44.46 MSCI 821.12 -3.68 -5.10 -4.94 -21.30 -14.14 -17.13

MSCI 409.88 -3.75 -4.21 -3.15 -19.01 -10.40 -11.05 MSCI 265.46 -2.73 -6.43 -5.08 -24.53 -10.49 -24.11 MSCI 1979.26 -2.17 -3.31 -8.00 -28.44 -27.44 -32.23 MSCI 227.38 -4.54 -9.96 -9.60 -24.10 -16.02 -24.64

Bloomberg 122.09 0.29 -1.22 -0.33 0.84 0.77 1.94 Bloomberg 132.05 0.53 0.81 0.04 0.07 -0.21 0.35 Bloomberg 136.15 0.23 -0.73 0.00 -0.51 -0.42 0.53

Bloomberg 143.69 -1.16 -1.07 -1.77 -4.70 -1.80 -4.49 Bloomberg 149.43 -1.43 -0.52 -1.49 -4.57 -0.27 -2.96 Bloomberg 163.24 -0.16 1.76 0.56 -0.13 2.75 2.56 ETF 45.55 -2.50 -1.45 -3.25 -6.60 -2.86 -5.40

Bloomberg 142.82 -0.61 0.09 -0.53 -2.10 1.41 -0.73 Bloomberg 122.31 -0.54 -1.14 0.90 -3.18 -1.70 -3.70 Bloomberg 149.74 -0.28 -0.64 -0.24 -0.92 1.52 2.31

Bloomberg 2015/11/13

21


(%) ()

MSCI 191.21 -5.89 -7.53 -6.98 -20.76 -19.60 -26.09 MSCI 189.57 -2.83 -3.60 -8.51 -21.11 -15.01 -17.06

MSCI 97.19 -2.48 -1.57 -6.92 -9.41 -5.42 -5.49 MSCI 192.57 -3.46 -1.52 -3.12 -4.50 3.42 6.60 MSCI 201.56 -2.06 -3.23 -3.52 -4.06 0.82 0.81

MSCI 192.28 -1.99 0.39 -3.42 -8.19 -3.53 -3.95 MSCI 144.96 -4.08 1.06 0.36 -2.78 2.60 3.42 MSCI 67.09 -1.35 0.28 -6.73 -7.59 -1.86 -6.39 MSCI 109.81 -1.06 -5.90 -5.90 -8.13 -10.77 -8.95 MSCI 202.74 -2.66 -1.44 -9.21 -8.10 1.43 1.97 NBI 3385.45 -2.00 2.89 -11.21 -9.09 6.54 12.29

AMEX 109.20 -0.23 -18.58 -6.25 -39.76 -33.43 -35.22 REITs FTSE 13912.97 -2.12 -3.55 -3.06 -3.16 -2.35 1.73 REITs FTSE 1689.03 -2.20 -4.33 -3.10 -3.34 -2.71 1.88 REITs FTSE 1484.54 -3.08 0.41 -3.86 -1.04 18.46 24.09 REITs FTSE 1400.99 -1.69 -3.15 -2.07 -10.62 -7.89 -7.23

(/) 1083.92 -0.54 -7.56 -2.40 -11.09 -8.14 -8.44

(/) 14.26 -3.49 -10.38 -6.25 -18.86 -8.46 -10.94

(/) 4825.00 -3.25 -8.50 -6.94 -24.67 -23.41 -27.52 (/) 44.47 -6.22 -11.71 -9.14 -33.32 -22.29 -43.90 (/) 40.74 -8.02 -13.54 -3.86 -31.55 -23.30 -46.11

CRB 184.77 -3.28 -7.36 -6.67 -20.17 -19.65 -30.75 826.59 -1.90 -4.57 -4.35 -5.85 -14.31 -14.73


22


(%)

1.0773 0.30 -5.67 -3.37 -5.39 -11.51 -14.02 122.61 0.42 -2.35 1.69 -1.90 -2.08 -4.64 1.5237 1.22 -1.41 -2.35 -2.77 -2.29 -2.69

1.0061 -0.07 -5.37 -2.88 -8.09 -1.34 -4.26 1.3323 -0.13 -3.06 -1.82 -8.72 -12.76 -15.11 0.7127 1.19 -2.18 -3.61 -11.08 -13.08 -18.40

1163.60 -1.90 -1.20 0.86 -5.49 -6.24 -5.74 32.8290 -0.74 -0.73 -1.87 -6.47 -3.57 -6.72

6.3737 -0.32 -0.51 0.38 -2.65 -2.64 -3.88 13685.00 -0.89 -0.34 0.61 -4.11 -9.48 -10.81

66.0988 -0.51 -1.38 -1.50 -3.16 -4.62 -6.86 35.9080 -0.20 -1.79 -1.04 -6.98 -8.35 -8.66

1.4237 -0.20 -2.87 -1.22 -6.76 -6.99 -8.88 4.3780 -1.55 -4.39 -8.39 -17.84 -20.12 -23.73

47.1000 -0.36 -2.17 -2.03 -5.11 -5.05 -4.75

14.3862 -1.57 -9.13 -10.35 -17.51 -19.65 -22.68 2.8632 1.89 0.50 -0.30 -10.30 -18.84 -22.46 66.7401 -3.47 -8.35 -2.04 -26.57 -9.16 -29.40 3.9398 0.99 -5.72 -5.00 -9.04 -10.48 -14.32 289.32 1.21 -6.08 -4.10 -6.24 -10.13 -15.45

4.1219 0.71 -6.05 -3.47 -4.99 -10.60 -13.98

3.8494 -2.14 1.14 -8.58 -21.04 -30.96 -32.75

16.6833 0.74 -1.76 -1.74 -9.58 -11.77 -18.72 9.6242 -0.47 -1.59 -4.05 -7.12 -12.04 -11.59


23


(%) () (bp)

30 3.0519 -3.3 16.8 19.7 -3.5 30.0 -1.9

10 2.2658 -5.9 22.2 8.0 -2.7 9.5 -7.4

0.3050 -1.9 -1.0 -7.9 -15.0 -2.4 -19.7

0.5580 -13.5 -2.9 -7.2 -16.6 1.7 -24.1

0.8740 -14.8 -8.2 -7.4 -12.3 4.8 -29.0

1.5640 -22.5 -9.3 -21.9 -32.8 -32.6 -81.3

1.7880 -13.0 -0.9 -16.4 -9.6 17.7 -35.1

2.7560 7.6 34.6 34.6 31.0 6.9 -45.4

2.6840 -22.8 -6.3 -17.9 -18.8 16.6 17.3

9.8600 1.0 -59.0 2.0 89.0 184.0 123.0

9.8293 17.1 -56.9 -112.3 -64.4 -317.8 -35.7

3.4100 5.0 16.0 -7.0 -29.0 -19.0 -28.0

8.6340 11.5 34.7 48.1 50.5 66.5 73.9

15.5420 -3.1 -43.9 204.1 281.6 317.8 263.8

6.1070 2.6 14.5 9.3 4.7 26.3 17.4

2.3300 12.0 20.8 3.9 -20.5 -27.5 -44.7

8.6370 0.0 -9.5 -10.1 63.7 84.1 66.0

* 7.6840 -0.2 12.2 -5.9 -27.2 -17.3 -53.9

10 2.6950 7.0 9.5 -4.6 -18.8 -3.4 -60.9


24


Q3

25

Bloomberg 2015/11/13

458

321(70.1%)36(7.9%)

101(22.1%) ()2.8%

(%)

13.4 -1.7

-1.2 3.7

-57.1 -14.6

-6.1 21.8

13.0 1.5

459

166(37%)74(16%)

219(47%)()1.61%

(%)

3.2 -5.8

0.9 1.7

-34.3 -15.0

1.7 11.8

8.7 -2.1


/

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詹姆士看天下 2015/11/16

Economy & Finance