詹姆士看天下 2014/12/15

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警語:本文提及之經濟走勢預測不必然代表基金之績效,基金投資風險請參閱基金公開說明書 Copyright © 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd. Copyright © 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd. 2014/12/15

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  1. 1. 2014/12/15Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd.Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd.
  2. 2. -1.60-1.68-2.00-1.060.270.27Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd.-2.28-1.86-1.19-0.010.25-2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5: Lipper 2014/12/112(%)
  3. 3. Bloomberg 1bp=0.01% :2014/12/12 Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd.3 (%) (bp) (bp) (bp) 4.48 373 397 297 7.24 477 547 335 9.94 765 895 461 4.03 232 250 218()()()()()
  4. 4. 7.24Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd.49.945.88(&)Bloomberg :2014/12/1220114.48%%
  5. 5. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd.-1.3-2.7 -2.7-4.8 -4.8-7.7-8.7 -8.8-1.9-2.6 -2.7 -2.8 -3.2 -3.3 -3.9 -4.3-5.4-8.50-2-4-6-8-10MSCI MSCI: Bloomberg 2014/12/125
  6. 6. l l OPECEIAl 1202.082%-5.9-3.4Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd.-9.7-20.02.5-12.20.62.3 1.6 1.5 0.9 0.8 0.7-0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -1.6 -2.1 -2.5-9.250-5-10-15-20-25CRBBB 118.75$1222.50$57.81$1.2462: Bloomberg 2014/12/126(%)
  7. 7. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd.0.00.0-0.5 -0.9-1.9 -2.2 -2.4 -2.6-3.1 -3.1 -3.1 -3.3 -3.4 -3.5 -3.5 -3.5 -3.9 -4.3-4.9 -5.2-6.6-7.0 -7.4 -7.7-12.120-2-4-6-8-10-12-14: Bloomberg 2014/12/12 ==225=7
  8. 8. (-12.1%)OPECEIA (-7.7%)20 (-7.4%-7.0%-6.6%)2Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd.8
  9. 9. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd.97.99%6526.74%509BB3B13.30%1646%()() 8332 ()8333 ()8334 ()ING(L)Renta()4908 ()4922 ()4923 () 2014/12/8
  10. 10. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd.101168.605%92.877%12%122111(100)1140201592111
  11. 11. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd.11 2.92%14.63%(14.00%)(1.97%)615%2009913%GDP5.4%5.6%11.6%38.2%17.3% 0522 () 0548 () 2014/12/10
  12. 12. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd.12Bloomberg
  13. 13. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd.13Bloomberg : 2014/12/12() ()
  14. 14. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd.14Bloomberg : 2014/12/12 () ()
  15. 15. FOMC PMI Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd.12/15()11 0.7% -0.1% 13 1312/16()11 103.5 100.911 106 10812Markit 56.0 54.812ZEW -- 11.012ZEW 20.0 11.512/17() 0.25% 0.25% 2.00% 2.00%12/18()11 0.5% 0.9%12IFO 105.5 104.712/19() 1Gfk 8.9 8.7: Bloomberg15
  16. 16. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd.1741200OPECEIA16
  17. 17. (2014/12/15) Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd.(60%) QE OPECEIA2015(40%) 17
  18. 18. 110.7%8100.3%0.5%111.7%110.5%0.1%1.11356401.19171.181217107.2%9.1%Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd.18
  19. 19. (182)40115 325475(317) 290(293)35(31)Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd.19
  20. 20. 11410.5%42015201610%1142013200Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd.20
  21. 21. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd.11 98.1 96.5 96.111 0.7% 0.4% 0.5% 29.4 29.7 29.711 1.4% 1.4% 1.5%12 93.8 89.5 88.812Sentix -2.5 -9.0 -11.910 0.1% 0.2% 0.5%10 0.8% 0.9% 0.1%10() 219 189 22110 1.1% 1.8% 0.8%10 -1.0% 0.1% -0.3%10() 46.08 49 47.21: Bloomberg21
  22. 22. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd.11() 544.7 439.5 454.111 4.7% 8.0% 11.6%11 -6.7% 3.8% 4.6%11 1.4% 1.6% 1.6%11 8527 6550 5483GDP -1.9% -0.5% -1.6%10 -4.9% -0.3% 7.3%10 1.8% 1.0% 0.5%GDP 1.7% 2.8% 2.2%10() 20.3 18 23GDP 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 10.50% 10.50% 9.50%: Bloomberg22
  23. 23. (%) Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. MSCI 1675.04 -3.65 -2.46 -3.00 -3.02 0.84 5.50 2002.33 -3.52 -1.84 0.92 3.42 8.33 12.79 1152.45 -2.54 -1.82 0.52 -0.88 -0.96 4.10 330.54 -5.82 -1.52 -3.89 -4.76 0.69 6.71 221.18 -4.82 -0.37 -2.24 -6.89 -1.61 4.28 225 17371.58 -3.06 -0.68 8.92 15.06 6.63 12.78 4338.23 -0.94 5.46 4.78 19.13 21.52 25.31 2938.17 0.02 18.53 25.61 41.89 38.86 33.79 MSCI 938.41 -4.80 -5.29 -11.12 -10.55 -6.41 -5.26 MSCI 451.06 -3.00 -2.11 -5.77 -3.56 1.04 1.92 MSCI 310.88 -8.73 -11.13 -21.41 -29.34 -28.97 -28.80 MSCI 2610.44 -8.66 -10.62 -23.81 -23.10 -18.44 -17.37 MSCI 267.13 -7.73 -11.46 -16.30 -20.75 -18.66 -16.67 2074.16 0.27 0.86 1.91 2.64 4.77 4.23 218.71 0.27 0.94 2.03 4.65 10.33 10.00 2579.58 0.25 0.71 1.28 2.31 7.14 7.18 310.80 -1.68 -2.95 -4.02 -5.24 -0.30 0.11 1037.58 -1.60 -3.07 -3.13 -3.58 1.47 1.78 346.44 -1.19 -1.80 -4.22 -7.35 -2.92 -2.32 UBS 324.28 -1.06 0.02 -2.76 -3.54 2.22 4.08 695.40 -2.28 -2.14 -2.20 -1.24 6.94 7.48 161.93 -2.00 -2.03 -3.37 -1.17 2.98 1.17 986.69 -1.86 -2.46 -2.29 -2.68 4.78 5.09 380.15 -0.01 0.53 1.35 3.15 8.63 8.52BloombergLipper 2014/12/122014/12/1123
  24. 24. (%) () Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. MSCI 220.59 -8.45 -14.73 -23.47 -27.74 -19.95 -15.97 MSCI 216.81 -5.38 -5.14 -10.69 -12.23 -9.66 -4.73 MSCI 101.16 -3.32 -1.63 -2.69 -3.00 -0.72 4.14 MSCI 182.00 -2.62 0.75 1.30 1.64 0.13 4.49 MSCI 197.03 -2.66 -1.46 0.24 -0.52 3.44 6.90 MSCI 193.93 -3.91 -3.13 -3.47 -5.90 -3.98 1.22 MSCI 138.52 -3.21 -1.17 1.60 6.72 12.47 18.33 MSCI 67.88 -4.34 -5.29 -3.88 -6.49 -5.71 -1.44 MSCI 120.80 -1.94 0.17 0.17 -0.65 9.94 13.21 MSCI 201.27 -2.77 1.23 3.97 8.99 17.12 21.72NBI 3202.56 -0.78 6.22 15.18 23.79 35.16 42.21AMEX 165.39 -0.37 -1.88 -24.57 -25.42 -16.34 -15.43REITs FTSE 14023.13 0.03 2.53 9.80 10.16 26.01 28.69REITs FTSE 1709.45 0.35 3.11 11.16 10.65 28.56 31.02REITs FTSE 1199.48 -3.77 0.26 2.01 2.90 19.55 24.96REITs FTSE 1515.64 0.89 0.37 1.83 2.43 14.92 18.19 (/) 1222.50 2.51 5.15 -0.59 -4.00 1.40 -0.25 (/) 17.03 4.59 8.55 -8.61 -12.79 -12.52 -12.67 (/) 6490.00 0.60 -2.84 -5.09 -1.96 -11.82 -10.19 (/) 61.85 -10.45 -23.05 -36.31 -45.28 -44.18 -43.08 (/) 57.81 -12.20 -25.10 -37.35 -45.73 -41.26 -40.71 CRB 243.75 -3.40 -8.64 -13.52 -21.37 -13.00 -12.85 979.31 0.82 1.39 3.45 -10.05 -5.50 -7.11: Bloomberg 2014/12/1224
  25. 25. (%) Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 1.2462 1.46 0.19 -3.86 -8.04 -9.32 -9.39 118.75 2.23 -2.75 -9.61 -14.36 -11.32 -12.94 1.5716 0.87 -0.40 -3.39 -7.17 -5.08 -3.88 0.9638 1.53 0.28 -3.17 -6.78 -7.36 -7.74 1.1581 -1.28 -2.26 -4.21 -6.26 -8.27 -8.13 0.8247 -0.83 -5.41 -8.75 -12.51 -7.51 -7.72 1103.14 0.97 -0.64 -6.15 -7.76 -4.84 -4.73 31.3130 -0.56 -2.17 -4.14 -4.21 -4.81 -5.37 6.1884 -0.59 -1.00 -0.86 0.50 -2.17 -1.89 12467.00 -1.37 -2.18 -5.17 -5.43 -2.37 -3.56 62.2950 -0.83 -1.26 -2.62 -4.88 -0.79 -0.75 32.8290 0.61 0.06 -1.78 -1.16 -0.38 -2.11 1.3139 0.67 -1.79 -3.87 -4.99 -3.87 -4.41 3.4955 -0.70 -4.58 -8.53 -8.22 -6.29 -7.60 44.5750 0.00 0.68 -1.40 -1.79 -0.40 -1.09 11.5916 -2.11 -3.44 -4.91 -7.92 -9.48 -10.38 2.2985 -1.68 -2.05 -3.28 -8.13 -6.54 -11.10 58.2805 -10.19 -21.78 -35.22 -41.11 -43.60 -43.73 3.3582 0.80 1.00 -3.42 -9.57 -9.98 -9.51 247.19 0.71 -0.31 -1.73 -8.35 -12.51 -10.84 3.5938 0.46 -0.88 -5.06 -9.83 -9.44 -9.91 2.6541 -2.53 -3.24 -11.87 -15.93 -11.00 -12.07 14.7624 -2.81 -8.16 -10.19 -12.09 -11.69 -12.17 8.5521 0.05 -0.50 -1.75 -4.93 -23.76 -26.57: Bloomberg 2014/12/1225
  26. 26. (%) () (bp) 30 2.7372 -23.0 -36.7 -60.7 -67.3 -123.1 -115.710 2.0817 -22.5 -29.0 -52.9 -51.3 -94.7 -79.6 0.3960 -2.5 -13.7 -18.2 -20.6 -34.5 -26.8Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 0.6240 -15.6 -18.6 -45.8 -76.3 -130.5 -121.5 0.6240 -15.6 -18.6 -45.8 -76.3 -130.5 -121.5 0.8970 -13.4 -27.5 -53.3 -85.9 -166.1 -154.3 2.0640 8.7 -29.6 -39.4 -75.7 -206.1 -203.9 1.8800 4.7 -22.9 -46.6 -82.4 -227.1 -221.5 2.9710 22.4 -25.1 -26.4 -37.7 -315.9 -308.1 2.5880 -3.3 0.9 -64.1 -93.8 -175.9 -188.7 8.4100 30.0 -25.0 -89.0 -63.0 -200.0 -124.0 12.6079 96.0 250.8 290.7 408.5 472.4 467.8 3.4700 -12.0 -27.0 -136.0 -99.0 -214.0 -234.0 7.9830 21.8 12.9 -26.9 -38.5 7.7 11.3 12.5910 48.7 -30.5 83.2 61.6 171.5 171.5 6.0990 8.5 13.3 15.8 42.0 -34.8 -38.9 2.6960 -2.8 -6.3 -31.5 -62.5 -88.9 -101.4 8.2270 37.6 22.7 3.4 18.9 -22.5 -43.9 7.8690 -6.9 -29.3 -63.4 -68.1 -95.6 -98.19* 2.6880 -6.4 -13.6 -78.4 -99.3 -128.3 -128.3: Bloomberg 2014/12/12 *2014/12/1126
  27. 27. 103027 (02)770-88888 6633 (03)620-5699 897 (04)3700-7988 360171 (07)972-1188 39 /Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd.
  28. 28. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd.