詹姆士看天下 2015/01/26
TRANSCRIPT
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Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.
2015/01/26
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Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.
124.26108.55
59.52
37.2654.80
2
2008
2014
() -34.64% -15.70%
-36.09% -7.28%
-21.11% -12.76%
-9.52% -5.56% -18.82% -5.58%
Bloomberg() 2014/12/312005/12/31
%
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Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.
Bloomberg 1bp=0.01% :2015/1/23
3
(%) (bp) (bp) (bp)
4.30 409 391 297
6.93 539 530 335
10.22 948 943 461
4.10 288 278 218
() ()()()()
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Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.
0.09
0.16
0.36
0.42
0.45
0.56
0.73
0.88
1.14
1.25
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
: Bloomberg 2015/1/23
4
(%)
5.56
(&)
4.30
6.93
%
%
10.22
QE
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Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.
5.7
4.8
3.5 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.6
2.2
3.1 2.7 2.4
1.9 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 0.8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
5
: Bloomberg 2015/1/23
MSCI MSCI
(%)
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Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.6
l QE2
l
-2.2
-20.3
-3.7
1.1
-6.4 -3.4 -3.4
2.5 1.6 1.3 0.7 0.7
-0.2 -0.7 -1.0 -1.1 -1.3 -2.4 -3.1 -3.8
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
CR
B
(%)
: Bloomberg 2015/1/23
117.77
$1294.10
1.797% $45.59 $1.1204
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Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.
6.6 6.6 6.0
5.3 4.7
4.3 4.1 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.5
1.6 1.5 1.3
-0.5 -0.7
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
7
: Bloomberg 2015/1/23 ==225=
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Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.
(6.6%)210
(6.6%6.0%4.7%)QE6%
(5.3%)SET6
(-0.7%)197.7%20080.7%
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Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.
1920087.7%11920GDP7.3%7.2%
16451235019
060710006000()6.5%619961210%20145%3667
5%
9
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0302 ()
- 4220 () 4202 ()
() 0404 ()
2015/1/20
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Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.
10
QE60074%
125IMF2595000QE1ZEW1
QE11QE
/
2015/1/20
()
2695 ()
8925 ()
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Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.
201519%21130025.4%
IMFQE
ETF31202013ETF
3ETF1200
11
DWS Invest
2330 () 2332 ()
() 0406 ()
4832() 4830()
2015/1/21
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Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.
12
Bloomberg
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Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.
13
() Bloomberg : 2015/1/23()
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Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.
14
() Bloomberg : 2015/1/23 ()
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Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.
: Bloomberg
2014GDP
15
1/26() 1IFO 106.5 105.5
1/27()
12 0.4% -0.7%
12 45.0 43.8
1 95.5 92.6
FOMC(1/27-28) 0.25% 0.25%
2.10% 2.10%
1/28() 2.00% 2.00%
3.25% 3.25%
1/29()12 0.5% 0.8%
5.75% 5.75%
1/30()
2014GDP 3.1% 5.0%
1 -0.5% -0.2%
1 2.3% 2.4%
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Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.
1.14QE
3600
QE130080
16
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Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.
(60%)
IMF
QE11
(40%)
QE
(2015/1/26)
17
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Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.
IMFIMF203.8%3.5%3.7%
2014 124.4%108.97.2%72.82008320141012007
2111%0.75%
18
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Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.
ECBQE 1.14220.05%-0.2%20153600201691.14
ECBECBECBECB33%25% 419-0.05-0.2QE-0.2-0.3542570300149(IMF)
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Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.
2015101.7%1%42%GDP1.5%2.1% GDP 2014GDP10.27.4%247.3%7.5%MLF() 12 IMF201620166.5%6.3%
20
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Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.
210211.375210500200160
(Joaquim Levy)20150.38%20151.4%0.3%12.25%
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Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.
12 103.2 106.0 105.2
12 108.9 104.0 104.3
12 504 508 492
12 0.5% 0.4% 0.4%
1Markit 53.7 54.0 53.9
0.75% 1.00% 1.00%
-8.5 -10.5 -10.9
1Markit 51.0 51.0 50.6
1Markit 52.3 52.0 51.6
1Markit 51.0 51.7 51.2
1ZEW 48.4 40.0 34.9
ILO(9-11) 5.8% 5.9% 6.0%
: Bloomberg
22
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Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.
2014GDP 7.3% 7.2% 7.3%
2014GDP 7.4% 7.3% 7.4%
12 11.9% 11.7% 11.7%
12 7.9% 7.4% 7.2%
1 49.8 49.5 49.6
11 -0.5% -- -0.6%
2014GDP 2.7% 2.8% 3.2%
7.75% 8.25% 8.25%
12.25% 12.25% 11.75%
1IPCA(12/15-1/15) 0.89% 0.87% 0.79%
12 5.3% 5.5% 5.8%
: Bloomberg
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(%)
MSCI 1707.74 1.95 -1.25 2.39 -2.32 -0.11 5.52 2051.82 1.60 -1.77 4.44 3.71 -0.34 14.61
1188.93 1.04 -2.16 6.27 3.86 -1.31 3.92 370.37 5.10 7.70 13.20 8.31 8.12 14.05
247.4 4.12 7.03 14.16 7.00 7.16 10.49 225 17511.75 3.84 -1.72 14.52 13.29 0.35 13.78
4424.57 0.53 1.63 10.99 13.74 0.76 18.25
3351.76 -0.73 6.15 45.58 57.61 3.62 63.15 MSCI 990.89 3.49 4.03 0.66 -8.14 3.62 4.32
MSCI 478.28 3.47 5.44 5.72 -1.18 4.55 11.42 MSCI 310.2 4.97 -0.34 -14.18 -26.02 4.60 -24.42 MSCI 2721.61 2.21 0.31 -10.54 -23.35 -0.22 -6.69 MSCI 280.81 4.78 2.19 -5.90 -15.71 3.71 -8.65
Bloomberg 123.66 0.16 2.72 2.99 4.58 2.06 7.00 Bloomberg 133.28 0.36 0.97 2.02 3.58 0.72 7.79 Bloomberg 139.58 0.42 2.79 2.41 3.35 2.09 8.26
Bloomberg 144.57 0.09 -1.10 -4.02 -6.04 -1.20 -2.34 Bloomberg 149.83 0.45 0.21 -2.75 -3.58 0.00 0.47 Bloomberg 160.44 0.73 1.08 1.92 1.48 0.99 5.53 ETF 47.00 1.25 -2.63 -1.55 -4.25 0.23 2.20
Bloomberg 142.00 0.88 0.84 -1.36 -1.51 0.83 6.02 Bloomberg 126.85 0.56 2.19 -0.28 -0.45 1.95 6.25 Bloomberg 151.07 1.14 2.65 3.52 6.17 2.43 15.37
Bloomberg 2015/1/23
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Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.
(%) ()
MSCI 230.04 1.86 -4.47 -11.68 -25.09 -3.27 -13.04 MSCI 221.29 1.59 -1.10 -2.02 -13.89 -0.79 -4.95
MSCI 99.71 1.70 -3.76 -0.97 -4.79 -2.97 0.74 MSCI 185.11 2.36 -1.01 7.08 2.45 -0.59 5.75 MSCI 205.77 1.65 1.55 7.10 3.88 2.93 11.53
MSCI 198.64 2.68 -1.54 2.61 -2.91 -0.34 1.84 MSCI 141.54 3.05 -1.99 6.72 4.61 0.18 16.92 MSCI 69.96 1.94 0.49 2.49 -3.89 2.34 -0.14 MSCI 124.57 1.49 -0.85 -0.85 2.11 1.23 13.98 MSCI 207.54 0.75 2.88 6.69 9.77 3.83 20.19 NBI 3375.88 1.53 5.26 11.77 26.84 6.24 32.36
AMEX 196.37 -2.24 20.62 6.50 -18.77 19.72 -10.58 REITs FTSE 15371.98 0.84 6.59 13.99 17.31 7.89 35.72 REITs FTSE 1885.81 0.65 7.36 15.76 18.40 8.62 38.43 REITs FTSE 1428.48 5.22 13.27 22.50 22.01 13.99 40.49 REITs FTSE 1597.72 0.57 5.09 7.76 2.77 5.05 22.70
(/) 1294.10 1.07 9.98 5.05 -0.81 9.22 2.37 (/) 18.30 2.87 16.12 6.40 -12.51 16.47 -8.70
(/) 5519.50 -3.42 -12.80 -17.55 -21.65 -12.39 -23.40 (/) 48.79 -2.75 -20.91 -43.81 -54.84 -14.90 -54.65 (/) 45.59 -6.37 -20.19 -44.46 -55.79 -14.42 -53.15
CRB 216.61 -3.40 -7.69 -19.84 -27.39 -5.81 -23.33 917.02 -1.85 -7.35 -4.21 -8.94 -4.93 -10.81
: Bloomberg 2015/1/23
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(%)
1.1204 -3.14 -7.95 -11.40 -16.79 -7.39 -18.20 117.77 -0.22 2.48 -8.07 -13.83 1.71 -12.32 1.4989 -1.06 -3.43 -6.49 -12.06 -3.77 -9.91
0.8801 -2.49 12.24 8.41 2.51 12.98 1.95 1.2420 -3.64 -6.47 -9.58 -13.62 -6.43 -10.61 0.7912 -3.78 -2.38 -9.70 -16.33 -3.22 -9.76
1084.02 -0.63 1.73 -2.57 -5.56 0.64 -0.94 31.3240 0.71 1.38 -2.95 -4.33 1.06 -3.18
6.2287 -0.34 -0.05 -1.75 -0.48 -0.37 -2.83 12459.00 1.04 0.03 -3.18 -7.63 -0.57 -2.36
61.4350 0.71 3.02 -0.25 -2.16 2.62 0.81 32.5660 -0.07 1.05 -0.60 -2.43 1.06 0.97
1.3448 -1.33 -1.44 -5.03 -8.03 -1.44 -4.94 3.6005 -1.17 -2.90 -9.07 -12.03 -2.87 -7.47
44.1700 1.13 1.13 1.44 -2.13 1.25 2.56
11.4047 1.26 2.15 -3.75 -7.82 1.45 -3.61 2.3499 -1.03 -1.24 -4.85 -11.12 -0.63 -2.44 63.7056 2.45 -14.12 -34.50 -45.32 -4.66 -46.49 3.7526 -0.70 -5.85 -10.88 -18.15 -5.57 -18.65 276.47 -0.45 -6.07 -11.96 -17.42 -5.36 -19.34
3.9903 -2.51 -7.77 -12.36 -17.78 -7.23 -17.08
2.5802 1.61 4.44 -3.11 -13.98 3.00 -7.00
14.6572 -0.68 0.70 -7.47 -11.76 0.64 -8.57 8.6267 -0.30 -0.87 -1.60 -5.32 -1.87 -12.18
: Bloomberg 2015/1/23
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(%) () (bp)
30 2.3735 -8.0 -47.8 -67.0 -89.0 -37.8 -130.9
10 1.7968 -4.0 -46.5 -47.4 -66.9 -37.4 -98.0
0.2340 -0.9 -10.4 -24.4 -30.3 -9.5 -42.7
0.3620 -9.2 -23.0 -54.0 -78.4 -17.9 -134.7
0.3620 -9.2 -23.0 -54.0 -78.4 -17.9 -134.7
0.5430 -9.0 -32.5 -75.7 -99.9 -28.3 -188.1
1.5270 -13.1 -41.7 -97.6 -121.4 -36.3 -233.4
1.3750 -12.7 -29.5 -81.1 -118.1 -23.6 -237.7
2.4500 -8.0 -25.1 -83.3 -124.3 -23.7 -270.6
2.0850 -19.3 -42.4 -55.4 -114.2 -43.3 -226.5
6.9700 -32.0 -105.0 -186.0 -190.0 -105.0 -340.0
13.0271 -45.6 -19.1 316.3 391.6 2.0 488.3
2.8400 -37.0 -76.0 -125.0 -131.0 -76.0 -257.0
7.1750 -20.3 -82.0 -73.7 -94.1 -79.4 -130.6
11.7170 -31.2 -71.3 -50.6 10.0 29.9 84.1
5.3200 -9.7 -59.9 -59.9 -30.2 -52.4 -116.9
2.3320 -1.3 -33.8 -39.0 -64.5 -27.3 -132.3
7.2830 -50.2 -60.4 -75.2 -76.8 -51.3 -138.3
7.7060 -0.1 -21.6 -65.1 -95.7 -15.1 -96.6
9 2.4760 6.8 -29.8 -58.5 -103.5 -12.5 -145.0
: Bloomberg 2015/1/23
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