太阳活动影响梅雨的 一种可能途经 李 崇 银 全国 空间学术会议, 2009 年 10...
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太阳活动影响梅雨的 一种可能途经 李 崇 银 全国 空间学术会议, 2009 年 10 月,南京. Outline. 1. Introduction 2. Solar Activity and Stratospheric Circulation 3. AO and Stratospheric Circulation Anomaly 4. AO and Mei-yu in China 5. Conclusion. 1. Introduction. Ps. 10.7cm irradiance. Labitzke, Van Loon, 1990). Temperature. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
太阳活动影响梅雨的一种可能途经
李 崇 银
全国空间学术会议, 2009 年 10 月,南京
Outline
1. Introduction
2. Solar Activity and Stratospheric Circulation
3. AO and Stratospheric Circulation Anomaly
4. AO and Mei-yu in China
5. Conclusion
1. IntroductionLabitzke, Van Loon,
1990)
Temperature
10.7cm irradiancePs
Sunspot cycle and location of the subtropical ridge over eastern Australia (R. E. Thresher,
2002)
太阳活动的影响过程需要很好研究
2. Used data
The 10.7cm solar radiant flux data
ECMWF reanalysis data
Mei-yu data
3. Solar Activity and Circulation Anomalies in Stratosphere
HS= high (strong) solar activity
LS= low (weak) solar activity
According to the 10.7cm solar radio flux,we can get high and low solar active year as follows:
HS: 1958, 59, 78, 79, LS: 1962, 63, 64, 74,
80, 81, 88, 89, 75, 76, 84, 85,
90, 91, 2001 86, 95, 96
The Expression of Solar Activity
Temporal variation of standardized indices of the 10.7cm solar radiant flux in winter
Strong
Weak
There are 11 years respectively for strong and weak
Composite geopotential height anomalies at 10 hPain winter for high and low solar activity
(Pan and Li, 2006)
Composite zonal wind anomalies at 10 hPa in winter for high and low solar activity
(Pan and Li, 2006)
Composite temperature anomalies at 10hPa in winter for high and low solar activity (Pan and Li, 2006)
Composite ozone mass mixing ratio anomalies at 10hPa in winter for high and low solar activity (Pan and Li, 2006)
Latitude-pressure section of the zonal wind anomalies for high and low solar activity
+
+
-
-
Potential vorticity at 10hPa in winter for high and low solar activity case
Corresponding to strong / weak solar activity, the stratospheric circulation has evident opposite variation, particularly in the mid-high latitude.
4. Relationship betweenthe AO and Stratosphere Circulation Anomaly
AO (Arctic Oscillation) Thompson and Wallace ( 2000 ) found that the SLP field in the high l
atitude has variation out-of-phase to that in the middle latitude and this patt
ern is symmetric longitudinally. It was named the Arctic Oscillation, or the
Northern Annular Mode (NAM).
Correlation between AO index in March and zonal mean geopotential height in February
(a) Correlation between AO index in March and 30hPa height in February
(b) EOF1 of 30hPa height in February ( 57.6% )
(c) EOF3 of 30hPa height in February ( 9.5% )
Correl. Coeff. with AO
PC1 PC3
0.35 (95%) 0.33 (95%)
The troposphere AO in March is closely related to the pattern of EOF1 and EOF3 of 30hPa height in February
Corresponding to positive PC1 , there is downward wave action in ( 30 - 40oN ) from 30hPa to 100hPa.It maybe affect the troposphere circulation
The regression EP flux in February using the PC1
AO与平流层的关系The regression EP flux in February using the PC3
Corresponding to positive PC3 , there is downward wave action
in ( 60 - 90oN ) from 30hPa to 100hPa.It maybe affect the troposphere circulation
AO index in March has evident correlation with the stratospheric circulation in February. There is downward wave actionfrom the stratosphere and will affect the troposphere circulation in mid-high latitude.
5. Relationship between
the AO and Mei-Yu
Temporal variation of standardized indices of the 10.7cm solar radiant flux in winter
Strong
Weak
There are 11 years respectively for strong and weak
The standard difference summer rainfall in China for strong and weak solar activity year
强、弱太阳活动年 850hPa 风场的差值(图中所显示的是通过 90 %信度检验的值)
Wavelet analysis for sunspots
Wavelet analysis for Mei-yu in China
A cross wavelet analysis for the sunspots and Mei-yu in China
Correlation coefficients between monthly AO indices and mei-yu precipitation from 1958 to 2002. (* indicates the 95% significance level)
月份相关系数 (AO,梅雨 )
1月 -0.01
2月 0.07
3月 -0.31*
4月 -0.04
5月 -0.16
6月 -0.05
7月 0.03
8月 -0.01
EOF1 of the SLP ( ERA-40 , 20-90N ) in March ( AO index )
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000-2
0
2meiyuao
AO与梅雨的关系
AO index and Mei-yu index
Negative Correlation
Correlation between the Mei-yu and zonal mean geopotential height in March( 1958- 2002)
AO mode
95 % (significance)99 %
Correlation between the Mei-yu and SLP/geopotential height i
n March
SLP
SLP 500hPa
500hPa
The Mei-yu is closely related to the AO mode in March
AO与梅雨的关系
Correlation between the AO index and SLP/geopotential heig
ht in March
The regression circulation in summer using the AO index in March
850-200hPa thickness Zonal mean wind( 110- 150E)
Corresponding to positive AO , there is a cold center in East Asia and downward motion over
the mid-downstream of Yangtze River
The regression 850hPa wind in summer using the AO index (positive) in March
The Mei-yu is clearly related to solar activity in decadal time scale. AO anomaly could cause summer circulation anomalies, which is favourable or unfavourable to the Mei-yu rainfall.
Solar Activity
Stratospheric Circulation Anomaly
AO Anomaly
Mei-yu Anomaly
6. Conclusion --- A Schematic Diagram
Solar Activity High Low
+ -
AOPositive Negative
Mei-yuDecrease Increase
Thank You
太阳活动
地磁场
改变地壳内部磁流体运动
改变地球自转
改变大气角动量
气候变化
直接辐射
对流层大气环流改变
?
紫外线宇宙线
平流层臭氧
云场 SST核幔边界上的地磁能量改变
SLP 500hPa 100hPa
AO与平流层的关系
用 PC1 回归的 3 月对流层高度场
2 月 30hPa 的 PC1 与 3 月对流层的 AO 模态有密切关系
AO与平流层的关系
用 PC3 回归的 3 月对流层高度场
SLP 500hPa 100hPa
2 月 30hPa 的 PC3 与 3 月对流层的 AO 形势有密切关系
Potential Vorticity at 10hPa in Winter for High and Low Solar Activity Case
Solar Activity
Geomagnetic
Magnetic fluidmotion in the Earth.
Rotation of the Earth
Atmospheric angular momentum
Climate Variation
Geomagnetic energy in C-M boundary
Direct radiation
Atmospheric circulationin the troposphere
?
UltravioletCosmic ray
OzoneCloud STA
$$$$$$
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
-0.5
0
0.5
Moving correlation between the AO and Mei-yu
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
-0.5
0
0.5
AO in Mar.
AO in May
Gong indicated the Mei-yu has good correlation to AO in May ( 1900 - 1998 ) .But during (1958 - 2002) , the Mei-yu has good correlation to AO in March.
We will consider the correlation between the Mei-yu and AO in March 。
(一)AO与梅雨的关系