에너지혁명 한글 보고서

image A WOMAN CARRIES HER DAUGHTER AS SHE WALKS THROUGH A FLOODED STREET NEAR BANGPA-IN INDUSTRIAL PARK IN AYUTTHAYA, THAILAND. OVER SEVEN MAJOR INDUSTRIAL PARKS IN BANGKOK

AND THOUSANDS OF FACTORIES HAVE BEEN CLOSED IN THE CENTRAL THAI PROVINCE OF AYUTTHAYA AND NONTHABURI WITH MILLIONS OF TONS OF RICE DAMAGED. THAILAND IS EXPERIENCING THE WORST

FLOODING IN OVER 50 YEARS WHICH HAS AFFECTED MORE THAN NINE MILLION PEOPLE.

2

for further information about the global, regional and national scenarios please visit the energy [r]evolution website: www.energyblueprint.info/Published by Greenpeace International and EREC. (GPI reference number JN 330).

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image LA DEHESA 50 MW PARABOLIC SOLAR THERMAL POWER PLANT. A WATER RESERVOIR AT LA DEHESA SOLAR POWER PLANT. LA DEHESA, 50 MW PARABOLIC THROUGH SOLAR THERMAL POWER PLANT

WITH MOLTEN SALTS STORAGE. COMPLETED IN FEBRUARY 2011, IT IS LOCATED IN LA GAROVILLA AND IT IS OWNED BY RENOVABLES SAMCA. WITH AN ANNUAL PRODUCTION OF 160 MILLION KWH, LA DEHESA

WILL BE ABLE TO COVER THE ELECTRICITY NEEDS OF MORE THAN 45,000 HOMES, PREVENTING THE EMISSION OF 160,000 TONS OF CARBON. THE 220 H PLANT HAS 225,792 MIRRORS ARRANGED IN ROWS

AND 672 SOLAR COLLECTORS WHICH OCCUPY A TOTAL LENGTH OF 100KM. BADAJOZ.

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image GEMASOLAR, A 15 MWE SOLAR-ONLY POWER TOWER PLANT. IT’S 16-HOUR MOLTEN SALT STORAGE SYSTEM CAN DELIVER POWER AROUND THE CLOCK. IT RUNS THE EQUIVALENT OF 6,570 FULL

HOURS OUT OF A 8,769 TOTAL. GEMASOLAR IS OWNED BY TORRESOL ENERGY AND HAS BEEN COMPLETED IN MAY 2011.

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK

6

image WIND TURBINES AT THE NAN WIND

FARM IN NAN’AO. GUANGDONG PROVINCE

HAS ONE OF THE BEST WIND RESOURCES IN

CHINA AND IS ALREADY HOME TO SEVERAL

INDUSTRIAL SCALE WIND FARMS.

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Sven TeskeArthouros Zervos

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image WITNESSES FROM FUKUSHIMA, JAPAN, KANAKO NISHIKATA AND HER TWO CHILDREN KAITO AND FUU, VISIT A WIND FARM IN KLENNOW, GERMANY.

1 UNEP EMISSIONS GAP REPORT.

2 W. L. HARE. A SAFE LANDING FOR THE CLIMATE. STATE OF THE WORLD. WORLDWATCH INSTITUTE. 2009.

3 JOEL B. SMITH, STEPHEN H. SCHNEIDER, MICHAEL OPPENHEIMER, GARY W. YOHE, WILLIAM HARE, MICHAEL D.

MASTRANDREA, ANAND PATWARDHAN, IAN BURTON, JAN CORFEE-MORLOT, CHRIS H. D. MAGADZA, HANS-MARTIN

DANGEROUS CLIMATE CHANGE THROUGH AN UPDATE OF THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE

FOUND ON APPENDIX 1.

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image WELDER WORKING AT VESTAS

WIND TURBINE FACTORY, CAMPBELLTOWN,

SCOTLAND.

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PJ/a 0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

REF REF REF REF REF REF

2009

ADV ADV ADV ADV ADV ADVE[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]

2015 2020 2030 2040 2050

E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R]

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image FIRST GEOTHERMAL POWER STATION

IN GERMANY PRODUCING ELECTRICITY.

WORKER IN THE FILTRATION ROOM.

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imag

eTH

E L

OCAL

ALA

SKAN T

ELE

VIS

ION S

TATI

ON

BRO

ADCASTS

A W

ARNIN

G F

OR H

IGH T

IDES A

ND E

RO

SIO

N

ALO

NG

THE S

EASID

E D

URIN

G A

2006 O

CTO

BER S

TORM

WHIC

H

IMPA

CTS

ON T

HE V

ILLA

GE O

F SHIS

HM

AREF.

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image CONSTRUCTION OF THE OFFSHORE

WINDFARM AT MIDDELGRUNDEN NEAR

COPENHAGEN, DENMARK.

images 1. AN AERIAL VIEW OF PERMAFROST TUNDRA IN THE YAMAL PENINSULA. THE ENTIRE REGION

IS UNDER HEAVY THREAT FROM GLOBAL WARMING AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE AND RUSSIA’S

ANCIENT PERMAFROST MELTS. 2. SOVARANI KOYAL LIVES IN SATJELLIA ISLAND AND IS ONE OF THE

THE WATER LEVEL IS INCREASING AND THE TEMPERATURE TOO. WE CANNOT LIVE HERE, THE HEAT

IS BECOMING UNBEARABLE. WE HAVE RECEIVED A PLASTIC SHEET AND HAVE COVERED OUR HOME

WITH IT. DURING THE COMING MONSOON WE SHALL WRAP OUR BODIES IN THE PLASTIC TO STAY

DRY. WE HAVE ONLY A FEW GOATS BUT WE DO NOT KNOW WHERE THEY ARE. WE ALSO HAVE TWO

3. WANG WAN YI, AGE 76, SITS INSIDE HIS

HOME WHERE HE LIVES WITH HIS WIFE IN ONE ROOM CARVED OUT OF THE SANDSTONE, A TYPICAL

DWELLING FOR LOCAL PEOPLE IN THE REGION. DROUGHT IS ONE OF THE MOST HARMFUL NATURAL

HAZARDS IN NORTHWEST CHINA. CLIMATE CHANGE HAS A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON CHINA’S

ENVIRONMENT AND ECONOMY. 4. INDIGENOUS NENETS PEOPLE WITH THEIR REINDEER. THE NENETS

PEOPLE MOVE EVERY 3 OR 4 DAYS SO THAT THEIR HERDS DO NOT OVER GRAZE THE GROUND.

THE ENTIRE REGION AND ITS INHABITANTS ARE UNDER HEAVY THREAT FROM GLOBAL WARMING

AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE AND RUSSIA’S ANCIENT PERMAFROST MELTS. 5. A BOY HOLDS HIS

MOTHER’S HANDS WHILST IN A QUEUE FOR EMERGENCY RELIEF SUPPLY. SCIENTISTS ESTIMATE

THAT OVER 70,000 PEOPLE, LIVING EFFECTIVELY ON THE FRONT LINE OF CLIMATE CHANGE, WILL BE

DISPLACED FROM THE SUNDARBANS DUE TO SEA LEVEL RISE BY THE YEAR 2030.

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image GEOTHERMAL POWER PLANT, NORTH ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND.215

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2

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image THE TRUCK DROPS ANOTHER LOAD

OF WOOD CHIPS AT THE BIOMASS POWER

PLANT IN LELYSTAD,

THE NETHERLANDS.

2


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2

20202006 2030

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image THE WIND TURBINES ARE GOING TO

BE USED FOR THE CONSTRUCTION OF AN

OFFSHORE WINDFARM AT MIDDELGRUNDEN

WHICH IS CLOSE

TO COPENHAGEN, DENMARK.

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20222021202020192018201720162015201420132012


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3 DECOUPLEGROWTH FROM FOSSIL FUEL USE.

G. PORO

PAT

DREAM

STIM

E

3

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image THE MARANCHON WIND TURBINE FARM

IN GUADALAJARA, SPAIN IS THE LARGEST

IN EUROPE WITH 104 GENERATORS, WHICH

COLLECTIVELY PRODUCE 208 MEGAWATTS OF

ELECTRICITY, ENOUGH POWER FOR 590,000

PEOPLE, ANUALLY.

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image A MAINTENANCE WORKER MARKS A

BLADE OF A WINDMILL AT GUAZHOU WIND

FARM NEAR YUMEN IN GANSU PROVINCE,

CHINA.

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image GEOTHERMAL ACTIVITY

NEAR HOLSSELSNALAR CLOSE

TO REYKJAVIK, ICELAND.

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image WIND TURBINE IN

SAMUT SAKHON, THAILA

ND.

5

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image MAINTENANCE WORKERS FIX THE

BLADES OF A WINDMILL AT GUAZHOU WIND

FARM NEAR YUMEN IN GANSU PROVINCE,

CHINA.

E[R] / ADV E[R]

2030 2040 2050202020152010

E[R] / ADV E[R]

2030 2040 2050202020152010


5

30

E[R] / ADV E[R]

2030 2040 2050202020152010

E[R] / ADV E[R]

2030 2040 2050202020152010

5

31

CO

AST

GU

ARD

image FIRE BOAT RESPONSE CREWS BATTLE THE BLAZING

REMNANTS OF THE OFFSHORE OIL RIG DEEPWATER

HORIZON APRIL 21, 2010. MULTIPLE COAST GUARD

HELICOPTERS, PLANES AND CUTTERS RESPONDED TO

RESCUE THE DEEPWATER HORIZON’S 126 PERSON CREW.

E[R] / ADV E[R]

2030 2040 2050202020152010

E[R] / ADV E[R]

2030 2040 2050202020152010


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5

E[R] / ADV E[R]

2030 2040 2050202020152010

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image A WOMAN STUDIES SOLAR POWER SYSTEMS AT

THE BAREFOOT COLLEGE. THE COLLEGE SPECIALISES

IN SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND PROVIDES A SPACE

WHERE STUDENTS FROM ALL OVER THE WORLD CAN

LEARN TO UTILISE RENEWABLE ENERGY. THE STUDENTS

TAKE THEIR NEW SKILLS HOME AND GIVE THEIR VILLAGES

CLEAN ENERGY.

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E[R]REF E[R] ADV E[R] REFADV E[R]

6 imag

eSO

LAR P

ANEL.

6

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image WIND TURBINES IN JEJU ISLAND.

PJ/a 0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000


2009


2015 2020 2030 2040 2050


1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

36

PJ/a 0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

E[R]

2009

ADVE[R]

E[R]

2010

ADVE[R]

E[R]

2020

ADVE[R]

E[R]

2030

ADVE[R]

E[R]

2040

ADVE[R]

E[R]

2050

ADVE[R]

PJ/a 0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

E[R]

2009

ADVE[R]

E[R]

2010

ADVE[R]

E[R]

2020

ADVE[R]

E[R]

2030

ADVE[R]

E[R]

2040

ADVE[R]

E[R]

2050

ADVE[R]


6

6

37

TWh/a 0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900


2009


2015 2020 2030 2040 2050


image SOLAR PANELS ON JEJU ISLAND.


6

38

2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050

Bn$/a 0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 ¢/kWh

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

39

image SOLAR PANELS ON JEJU ISLAND.

6


40

6

41

6

PJ/a 0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050

REF E[R] ADVE[R]

REF E[R] ADVE[R]

REF E[R] ADVE[R]

REF E[R] ADVE[R]

REF E[R] ADVE[R]

REF E[R] ADVE[R]

PJ/a 0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050

REF E[R] ADVE[R]

REF E[R] ADVE[R]

REF E[R] ADVE[R]

REF E[R] ADVE[R]

REF E[R] ADVE[R]

REF E[R] ADVE[R]

image SUN SETTING OVER SEOUL, SOUTH

KOREA. AS SEEN FROM THE NORTH SIDE OF

THE HAN RIVER.


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6

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

E[R]

2009

advE[R]

E[R]

2015

advE[R]

E[R]

2020

advE[R]

E[R]

2030

advE[R]

E[R]

2040

advE[R]

E[R]

2050

advE[R]

Mill t/aMillionpeople

PJ/a 0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000


2009


2015 2020 2030 2040 2050


43

image PR

ODUCING WIND R

OTORS FO

R OFFS

HORE WIND E

NERGY IN R

INGKOBING, DENMARK. 7 7


44

7

0

2015

2015

2015

2020

2020

2020

2030

2030

2030

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

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image WORKERS AT GANSU JINFENG WIND

POWER EQUIPMENT CO. LTD. IN JIUQUAN,

GANSU PROVINCE, CHINA.

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–


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image CONTROL ROOM OF LUZ SOLAR

POWER PLANT, CALIFORNIA, USA.

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48

8 INN

ORTH

AM

ERIC

AA

LO

NE W

E C

OU

LD

SH

UT D

OW

N 1

6 D

IRTY P

OW

ERPLA

NTS

BY C

HA

NG

ING

TO

CFL

SA

ND

LED

S.IN

EU

RO

PE W

E C

OU

LD

SH

UT D

OW

N 1

1.

8

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image 100 KW PV GENERATING PLANT

NEAR BELLINZONA-LOCARNO RAILWAY LINE.

GORDOLA, SWITZERLAND.


8

50

51

image MAN USING METAL GRINDER ON PART

OF A WIND TURBINE MAST IN THE VESTAS

FACTORY, CAMBELTOWN, SCOTLAND, GREAT

BRITAIN.

8


52

8

53

image PLANT NEAR REYKJAVIK WHERE

ENERGY IS PRODUCED FROM THE

GEOTHERMAL ACTIVITY.

8


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8

5555

9im

age

CO

AL F

IRED

PO

WER P

LA

NT.

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9

District heating plantsFossil fuelsBiomassSolar collectorsGeothermal

Heat from CHP Fossil fuelsBiomassGeothermalFuel cell (hydrogen)

Direct heating1)

Fossil fuelsBiomassSolar collectorsGeothermal2)

Total heat supply1)


Fuel cell ((hydrogen)

RES share (including RES electricity)

1) including cooling. 2) including heat pumps

Condensation power plantsCoalLigniteGasOilDiesel

Combined heat & power productionCoalLigniteGasOil

CO2 emissions power generation (incl. CHP public)CoalLigniteGasOil & diesel

CO2 emissions by sector% of 1990 emissions

Industry Other sectors Transport Power generation (incl. CHP public) Other conversion

Population (Mill.)CO2 emissions per capita (t/capita)

TW GW

a

MILL

Power plantsCoalLigniteGasOilDieselNuclearBiomassHydroWindPVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energy

Combined heat & power productionCoalLigniteGasOilBiomassGeothermalHydrogenCHP by producerMain activity producersAutoproducers

Total generationFossil Coal Lignite Gas Oil DieselNuclearHydrogenRenewables Hydro Wind PV

Biomass Geothermal Solar thermal Ocean energy

Distribution lossesOwn consumption electricityElectricity for hydrogen productionFinal energy consumption (electricity)

Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean)Share of fluctuating RES

RES share


Combined heat & power productionCoalLigniteGasOilBiomassGeothermalHydrogen

CHP by producer Main activity producers

Autoproducers



Fluctuating RES(PV, Wind, Ocean)Share of fluctuating RES

RES share

TotalFossilHard coalLigniteNatural gasCrude oil

NuclearRenewablesHydroWindSolarBiomassGeothermalOcean EnergyRES share

2015

5091928.070140

2062.43.84.08.0

00

0.9

442.90.3355.50.6

00

2024

5533281958.3105200

2060

203.84.08.03.0

00

0.9

21370

495

132.3%

3.6%

2020

6112058.092140

2593.63.91014

0.20

1.4

482.90.3385.70.9

00

2324

6593662088.3130200

2590

343.91014

4.50.2

01.4

25440

589

253.9%

5.2%

2030

7542108.087140

3534.44.139320.6

02.4

542.90.3435.91.800

2926

8083712138.3130200

3530

844.139326.20.6

02.4

31540

723

739.1%

10.4%

2040

7701598.062140

4204.64.352421.0

03.0

602.80.3486.02.9

00

3327

8303001628.3110200

4200

1104.352427.51.0

03.0

32560

742

9711.7%

13.2%

2050

7901158.058140

4804.14.557451.5

03.5

662.50.3526.04.4

00

3828

8562561188.3110200

4800

1204.557458.51.5

03.5

33580

766

10612.3%

14.0%

2009

4171877.255150

1480.52.80.70.6

000

352.80.6274.70.2

00

1421

4522991907.882200

1480

4.82.80.70.60.7

000

17290

406

10.3%

1.1%

2015

213169

827100

2851

175

241174

94415

546228%

876795

22374

49.111.1

2020

228176

835100

2841

194

256180

95414

584244%

987299

23977

49.811.7

2030

222172

83390

2831

214

250175

85413

604253%

11075110

23575

50.312.0

2040

164124

72490

2821

224

192126

84513

566237%

1197811817973

49.411.5

2050

124867

2290

2721

223

152878

4413

526220%

1237811613969

47.111.2

2009

210171

721100

2262

104

231178

93114

501210%

666086

21475

48.010.5

2015

120467400

187181

600

1,7081,606

10011

2,0161,833

181110

9.1%

2020

135528400

207199

800

1,9261,797

12612

2,2692,048

218120

9.7%

2030

148579200

220209

1100

2,1511,994

15312

2,5202,260

257120

10.3%

2040

16563

10200

221209

1200

2,3832,188

19023

2,7692,460

304230

11.1%

2050

16664

10300

2252101500

2,5132,293

21424

2,9042,567

332240

11.6%

2009

121467500

172168

400

1,3711,301

6711

1,6641,515

146110

9.0%

PJ

Total (incl. non-energy use)Total (energy use)TransportOil productsNatural gasBiofuelsElectricity

RES electricityHydrogenRES share Transport

IndustryElectricity

RES electricityDistrict heat

RES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermalHydrogenRES share Industry

Other SectorsElectricity


RES district heatCoalOil productsGasSolarBiomass and wasteGeothermalRES share Other Sectors

Total RESRES share

Non energy useOilGasCoal

2015

82231.015

5.90

250.31.72.07.2

00

0.3

9.70.7

0.067.31.60.1

00

5.44.3

9155241.0237.4

0250

121.72.07.20.4

00

0.3

9.410.4%

12.7%

2020

100251.018

5.80

310.51.73.812

0.030

0.4

10.60.7

0.068.01.60.2

00

6.24.4

11061261.0267.3

0310

191.73.812

0.70.03

00.4

16.414.9%

17.1%

2030

133261.017

5.70

420.61.812260.1

00.7

12.30.7

0.069.81.40.3

00

7.35.0

14661271.0267.10

420

421.812260.90.1

00.7

3927.0%

28.9%

2040

141201.012

5.60

500.61.916320.1

00.9

13.70.7

0.0611

1.40.5

00

8.35.4

15452211.0237.0

0500

521.916321.20.1

00.9

4931.9%

34.0%

2050

145151.011

5.70

570.62.017350.2

01.0

14.70.6

0.07121.30.8

00

9.15.6

16046151.0237.0

0570

562.017351.30.2

01.0

5333.0%

35.2%

2009

65230.915

5.60

180.11.60.40.5

000

8.10.7

0.145.81.40.0

00

4.14.0

7353241.021

7.00

180

2.61.60.40.50.1

000

0.91.3%

3.6%

2015

11,0908,5002,731

781,5234,168

2,244346

141430

28413

3.1%

2020

12,3789,0752,868

781,8034,326

2,830472

143652

35785

3.8%

2030

14,0789,4812,860

771,917

4,628

3,852746

15140117

442239

5.3%

2040

14,7009,1812,379

741,8624,866

4,583936

15187153532

3811

6.4%

2050

15,1518,8441,984

711,8934,896

5,2371,070

162051646155713

7.1%

2009

9,6147,7922,708

801,151

3,853

1,612210

1023

19310

2.2%

2015

7,1725,5281,3631,277

5225

900

1.9%

2,16491833

21558

293309341

08800

8.3%

2,00085430883326

446549

135

15.0%

3055.5%

1,6441,626

018

2020

7,9266,2321,4301,323

59381000

2.7%

2,5601,099

5724367

347361404

0107

00

9.0%

2,2431,014

52953523

477586

146

16.1%

4056.5%

1,6931,674

019

2030

8,9867,1891,6111,460

79591210

3.8%

2,9611,278

13326375

405421476

0119

00

11.0%

2,6181,313

1371003721

502612

1662

9.3%

6318.8%

1,7961,776

020

2040

9,5557,6491,7721,553

104862940

5.1%

3,1541,303

172274

82457463520

0138

00

12.5%

2,7221,339

1771064021

525639

2882

11.4%

79210.4%

1,9061,885

021

2050

9,8877,8661,8611,505

13813187120

7.7%

3,2421,316

18527785

484479540

0145

00

12.8%

2,7631,353

1901084023

524645

2107

312.3%

89811.4%

2,0221,999

022

2009

6,1894,6391,2261,172

379800

0.7%

1,673718

821129

203211

2660

6400

6.0%

1,741735

8781637

365503

120

12.7%

1563.4%

1,5491,534

016

a

57

9





Industry Other sectors Transport Power generation (incl. CHP public) Other conversion

Population (Mill.)CO2 emissions per capita (t/capita)



IndustryElectricity






Total RESRES share




Direct heating1)


Total heat supply1)


Fuel cell (hydrogen)

RES share (including RES electricity)‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.)

1) including cooling. 2) including heat pumps

TW GW

MILL







RES share‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.)




Autoproducers




RES share


NuclearRenewablesHydroWindSolarBiomassGeothermalOcean EnergyRES share‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.)

2015

6,8525,2081,3431,257

51261010

1.9%

1,98484851

22569

2522473101092

10

11.2%

1,88078447933914

419526

3393

6.9%

3787.3%

1,6441,626

018

2020

7,0415,3471,3601,234

57373230

3.0%

2,075874

9125093

23923733423112

50

15.6%

1,91380483117550

390522

96110

11.4%

58310.9%

1,6931,674

019

2030

7,0215,2241,3311,077

6561

122426

7.9%

2,08685829833121514216439645

127230

33.9%

1,808793275172120

023640260

10343

33.2%

1,41327.1%

1,7961,776

020

2040

6,5454,6391,202

8017161

258155

1118.5%

1,8347734633522573573

34971

132500

53.0%

1,602739443201158

0112

23511512773

57.1%

2,11145.5%

1,9061,885

021

2050

5,8723,8511,021

4027551

473362

1941.9%

1,527651499353282

05

22885131720

70.1%

1,303593454209178

016

14113812384

75.0%

2,47564.3%

2,0221,999

022

2009

6,1894,6391,2261,172

379800

0.7%

1,673718

821129

203211

2660

6400

6.0%

1,741735

8781637

365503

120

12.7%

1563.4%

1,5491,534

016

2015

82220.718

5.30

180.51.83.91100

0.4

9.80.7

07.31.40.3

00

5.34.5

9256230.8256.7

0180

181.83.911

0.800

0.4

1516.6%

19.4%

2020

90220.5204.8

016

0.61.97.416

0.040

0.7

110.6

08.11.21.2

0.030

6.15.0

10158230.5285.9

0160

281.97.4161.8

0.070

0.7

2423.5%

27.2%

2030

131190

210.5

09.10.72.23147

0.20

1.3

130.03

08.00.84.10.4

0

6.46.9

14449190

291.3

09.10

862.231474.80.6

01.3

7954.7%

59.9%

2040

170140

21000

0.72.456730.5

01.7

1500

8.20.45.81.0

0

6.98.5

18544140

300.4

000

1412.456736.51.6

01.7

13070.4%

76.1%

2050

1815.5

020000

0.82.772770.7

02.1

1700

7.90

7.01.80

7.49.3

197335.5

0280000

1642.772777.82.5

02.1

15176.6%

83.2%

2009

65230.915

5.60

180.11.60.40.5

000

8.10.7

0.145.81.40.0

00

4.14.0

7353241.021

7.00

180

2.61.60.40.50.1

000

0.91.3%

3.6%

2015

10,3308,2312,593

601,5534,025

1,659440

142957

324115

4.3%760

2020

10,3478,1982,484

361,7403,938

1,451698

1572

102466339

6.7%2,031

2030

9,5926,9751,895

01,6363,444

8331,784

1832032989121016

18.6%4,486

2040

8,1955,5961,300

01,3342,962

02,599

2058356294546822

31.7%6,505

2050

6,9173,882

3860

1,0472,450

03,035

2277462690168427

43.9%8,234

2009

9,6147,7922,708

801,151

3,853

1,612210

1023

19310

2.2%0

2015

4651836.082130

1523.74.08.0120.1

01.4

452.80.3355.21.30.1

0

2025

5103271866.3117180

1520

314.08.012

5.00.2

01.4

20330

456

214.2%

6.0%39

2020

4771784.0101110

1334.64.32018

0.30

2.4

512.6

0394.84.90.2

0

2328

5283401804.0140160

1330

554.3201810

0.50

2.4

21320

475

407.7%

10.4%121

2030

473136

0981.0

0764.94.989571.70

4.4

6700

373.7232.3

0

2938

540276136

01354.7

0760

1874.98957284.0

04.4

23232

492

15027.9%

34.7%261

2040

451860

87000

5.05.5162953.9

06.0

8000

382.0356.1

0

3347

531213860

1252.0

000

3185.51629540100

6.0

21144

492

26349.5%

59.9%314

2050

421190

63000

5.06.1

2151005.2

07.5

9000

370

42110

3852

511119190

1000000

3926.1

21510047160

7.5

206.8

7477

32363.1%

76.6%396

2009

4171877.255150

1480.52.80.70.6

000

352.80.6274.70.2

00

1421

4522991907.882200

1480

4.82.80.70.60.7

000

17290

406

10.3%

1.1%0

2015

207161

63180

2851

185

234166

74913

520218%

776393

21671

4910.6

2020

203153

43970

2740

203

229156

45911

504211%

746092

21266

5010.1

2030

1491110

3710

2100

192

1701110

563

386161%

594281

15647

507.7

2040

100670

3300

1900

171

119670

511

255107%

382462

10625

495.2

2050

38140

2400

1500

150

53140

390

12050%

2111

334411

472.6

2009

210171

721100

2262

104

231178

93114

501210%

666086

21475

48.010.5

2015

1314782

10

1921791210

1,5701,447

106125

1,8931,673200

1460

11.6%

123

2020

139439051

2331923920

1,6081,412

1433221

1,9801,64727237240

16.8%

289

2030

15827

106196

352156175210

1,4861,102

19110589

1,9951,285

471124115

0

35.6%

525

2040

18815

1243415

372143175550

1,236674218186159

1,796832516220228

0

53.7%

973

2050

1733

1094317

396120179970

965328217223197

1,534452504266311

0

70.5%

1,370

2009

121467500

172168

400

1,3711,301

6711

1,6641,515

146110

9.0%

0

PJ

a

a

58

WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTIONA SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK

9



IndustryElectricity






Total RESRES share


PJ





Industry Other sectors Transport Power generation (incl. CHP public) Other conversionPopulation (Mill.)CO2 emissions per capita (t/capita)



Direct heating1)


Hydrogen

Total heat supply1)


Fuel cell (hydrogen)

RES share (including RES electricity)‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.)1) including cooling. 2) including heat pumps

GW

a

MILL







RES share‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.)




Autoproducers




RES share


NuclearRenewablesHydroWindSolarBiomassGeothermalOcean EnergyRES share‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.)

2015

6,8525,2081,3431,253

51251410

2.0%

1,98484851

22569

2522473101092

10

11.2%

1,8807844793398

420522

7396

7.4%

3867.4%

1,6441,626

018

2020

6,9915,2971,3101,135

543783110

3.7%

2,07587412025093

23723733523113

60

17.1%

1,913804111

126600

336507288529

16.3%

71613.5%

1,6931,674

019

2030

6,9215,1241,231

9175956191938

12.4%

2,08685841633722211315740751

130320

40.8%

1,808793385192134

0114

40086

15668

45.8%

1,83135.7%

1,7961,776

020

2040

6,3754,4691,032

5475855

355242

1729.9%

1,834773527370290

057

32583

139817

61.3%

1,602739503229189

028191136180100

69.1%

2,54056.8%

1,9061,885

021

2050

5,5923,571

7411274847

49444525

69.4%

1,527651587374322

05

7810214116213

86.9%

1,303593534227203

01649

150162108

88.7%

2,99783.9%

2,0221,999

022

2009

6,1894,6391,2261,172

379800

0.7%

1,673718

821129

203211

2660

6400

6.0%

1,741735

8781637

365503

120

12.7%

1563.4%

1,5491,534

016

2015

8321

0.7205.7

018

0.51.83.911

0.020

0.4

9.80.7

07.41.40.3

0.010

5.44.5

9357220.8277.10

180

181.83.911

0.80.03

00.4

1516.3%

19.1%

2020

9821

0.521

5.50

161.21.91020

0.040

0.7

110.6

08.31.21.2

0.030

6.25.2

1105821

0.5296.6

0160

361.910202.5

0.070

0.7

3128.4%

32.5%

2030

169220

23000

0.82.454650.6

01.8

1400

8.20.84.40.40.1

6.67.3

18354220

310.8

00

0.11292.454655.21.0

01.8

12065.8%

70.5%

2040

195130

23000

0.92.773781.0

03.0

1600

7.10.27.31.30.2

6.99.2

21143130

300.2

00

0.21672.773788.12.3

03.0

15473.1%

79.3%

2050

20700

21000

1.03.189881.3

04.3

1700

5.70

9.32.10.4

7.410

2252600

26000

0.41983.1898810

3.40

4.3

18180.7%

88.1%

2009

65230.915

5.60

180.11.60.40.5

000

8.10.7

0.145.81.40.0

00

4.14.0

7353241.021

7.00

180

2.61.60.40.50.1

000

0.91.3%

3.6%

2015

10,3108,2022,503

601,617

4,022

1,659448

142961

324145

4.3%780

2020

10,2657,9462,381

361,7593,770

1,451869

15108139544549

8.5%2,113

2030

9,0646,7201,892

01,7083,121

02,344

2051544199335223

25.9%5,015

2040

8,0334,808

9920

1,2462,570

03,224

22727621

1,11969838

40.1%6,667

2050

6,5132,711

220

5322,157

03,803

25918708

1,0921,006

5458.4%8,637

2009

9,6147,7922,708

801,151

3,853

1,612210

1023

19310

2.2%0

2015

4661746.092130

1523.74.08.0120.1

01.4

452.80.3355.21.30.1

0

2025

5113281776.3127180

1520

314.08.012

5.00.2

01.4

20330

457

214.2%

6.0%39

2020

4901674.0106

110

1339.24.330230.3

02.4

522.6

0394.85.30.2

0

2329

5423341694.0145160

1330

754.3302315

0.50

2.4

21320

489

5510.2%

13.8%121

2030

491139

0107

000

6.05.5143794.6

06.4

6900

383.7252.40.3

2940

560288139

01453.7

00

0.32725.51437931

7.00

6.4

23214

512

22840.8%

48.5%261

2040

481530

93000

6.06.1

2021027.4

011

8400

320.8437.61.2

3351

565179530

1250.8

00

1.23856.1

2021024915011

211211

521

31555.7%

68.1%314

2050

43300

25000

6.07.0

2551159.9

015

9500

250

55122.1

3857

5275000

50000

2.14757.0

25511561220

15

203.817

486

38573.0%

90.1%396

2009

4171877.255150

1480.52.80.70.6

000

352.80.6274.70.2

00

1421

4522991907.882200

1480

4.82.80.70.60.7

000

17290

406

10.3%

1.1%0

2015

203153

63580

2851

185

230158

75313

510213%

776393

2126649

10.4

2020

195143

44070

2730

203

222147

46111

472197%

745585

2045350

9.5

2030

155114

04100

2100

192

175114

0602

359150%

5733691613950

7.1

2040

77410

3600

1500

150

92410

500

18879%

311543821849

3.8

2050

900900

1000

100

2000

200

4419%

106

12134

470.9

2009

210171

721100

2262

104

231178

93114

501210%

666086

21475

48.010.5

2015

1314782

10

1921791210

1,5711,440

10516100

1,8931,666

19917110

12.0%

123

2020

140449151

2411934520

1,5991,353

16251340

1,9801,590

29856370

19.7%

288

2030

1502899186

37315619422

1

1,472984237137114

0

1,9951,167531154142

1

41.5%

525

2040

18815

1233415

414117

225694

1,194501268209210

6

1,796634616243294

10

64.6%

972

2050

1663

1044117

43282

243996

93710025725231512

1,53418660529443119

87.8%

1,370

2009

121467500

172168

400

1,3711,301

67110

1,6641,515

146110

9.0%

0

a

59

9

MILLION $ 2031-2040

101,89225,912

2,4881,6752,35218,004

420

974

10,10786,04111,9012,34617,98943,639

8,189

1,977

8,19583,52417,7772,429

14,60534,42610,629

3,658

2041-2050

122,55621,874

1,522957

2,40515,231

808

952

2,50881,78114,6511,485

21,31832,489

9,714

2,124

643127,421

17,7851,799

42,14050,93110,885

3,881

2011-2050

513,007104,291

7,2905,7709,043

75,3942,111

4,683

68,093291,821

45,9678,229

55,495149,02524,091

9,013

65,873390,717

57,9329,513

94,168183,39931,670

14,034

2011-2050AVERAGE

PER YEAR

12,8252,607

182144226

1,88553

117

1,7027,2961,149206

1,3873,726

602

225

1,6479,7681,448238

2,3544,585

792

351

2021-2030

134,90327,712

1,2131,6102,218

21,270542

859

14,57476,90812,3552,25611,68443,6415,266

1,706

16,480123,445

13,2263,143

32,92061,6349,234

3,289

2011-2020

153,65528,793

2,0681,5292,067

20,890341

1,898

40,90447,090

7,0602,1424,504

29,255923

3,207

40,55556,327

9,1432,1424,504

36,408923

3,207

2005-2010

31,8798,164

524435932

6,2720

31,8798,164

524435932

6,2720

31,8798,164

524435932

6,2720

Reference scenario

Conventional (fossil & nuclear)RenewablesBiomassHydroWindPVGeothermalSolar thermal power plantsOcean energy

Energy [R]evolution


Advanced Energy [R]evolution


image ICE MELTING ON AN ICEBERG ON THE GREENLANDIC COAST. GREENPEACE AND AN INDEPENDENT NASA-FUNDED SCIENTIST COMPLETED MEASUREMENTS OF MELT LAKES ON THE GREENLAND ICE SHEET THAT

SHOW ITS VULNERABILITY TO WARMING TEMPERATURES. front cover images WIND TURBINES ON JEJU ISLAND

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