, experience at the Israeli Meteorological Service

Yoav Levi, Head R&D

77 IMS personnel

2012 IMS News

• New data policy - the IMS stopped selling products (data and forecasts), as all IMS budget is covered by the government.

• Less employees for public services and more for research. R&D from 5 to 8 employees.

• A new HPC.

SGI HPC with 1024 cores 32 nodes of 2 AMD 16 core Opteron 6276

processors

HPC performance

IMS Research & Development

NWP at IMS

• IMS runs WRF, HRM and testing COSMO.

• IMS has decided to join COSMO and use it operationally for forecasting duties and upgrade our NWP skills.

• 2 young FTE’s and a consultation from Dr. Shimon Krichak from the Tel-Aviv Uni. (50%).

2012 Research

• MSG - Land Surface Temperature (LST) and IR to evaluate frost and cloud fraction in partial filed pixels (replace human observations).

• Could it be relevant for Soil and Surface working group (WG3b), conditional verification (WG5)?

Where vegetation is enhanced evapo-transpiration reduces temperature

COSMO_LST > MSG_LST

After DrySeason

70 km

Tel Aviv

Jerusalem

At springwith~2 octas

INCA-Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis.

• NWP interpolated and adjusted to 1 Km grid together with 85 AWS observation.

• Could it be relevant for Km-Scale Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation (KENDA), grid verification(WG5)?

Wind energy atlas

2013 - COSMO 2.8 km as input to a micro-

scale model

Forecast verification comparing to Bet Dagan Radiosond

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0.5

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3.5

0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144

RM

SE

[oC

]

Forecast lead time [hr]

Temp 850 hPa Beit-Dagan Sonde vs. NWP models

IMS_MM5WRFECMWFNCEPUKMODWDTAU_MM5COSMOHRM

-IT

DA?

60 hour average RMSE for T2m

1.82.0

2.5

2.1 2.1

2.5 2.4

1.9

1.6

2.8

1.9

3.4

2.1

2.3

2.01.9

2.6

1.7

2.12.3

2.0

2.9

3.8

2.7

2.3

3.8 3.7

2.8

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

ECMWF CO-IT GME CO-IL UKMO WRF HRM

RM

SE

Bet Dagan

Jerusalem

Haifa

Har Knaan

7km 7km 12km 14km16km 20km

Tel Aviv

:T2m:COSMO-IT:12Z+18h:Bet Dagan near Tel Aviv

Observations (oC)

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5

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25

30

-20 -10 0 10 20

Temperature error (oC)

התפלגות השגיאות :

222 )(

RMSE2 = STD2 + MBE2

y = 0.905x + 1.4628R² = 0.9482

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10

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25

30

35

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

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1.5

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0 12 24 36 48 60 72

Forecast range (hr)

RMSE for 12Z runs COSMO-IT Bet Dagan

Large RMSE at 06Z

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1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

0 12 24 36 48 60 72

Forecast range (hr)

Decrees RMSE

Temperature error (oC)

Last 7 Days bias correction

No correction

7 days bias correction

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-20 -10 0 10 20

כל המודלים

RMSE W/O correction

Forecast range (hr)

Bet Dagan – near Tel aviv

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1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216 240

ECBHCOIC

213/263 events

CO-IT

CO-IL

UKMO

ECMWF

12Z

6Z

18Z

כל המודלים

RMSE after bias correction

Forecast range (hr)

Bet Dagan – near Tel aviv

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216 240

ECBHCOICCO-IT

CO-IL

UKMO

ECMWF

Summery for Temperature verification

Mean 60-hours RMSE score without bias correctionECMWFUKMOCO-ITGFSWRFCO-ILHRMGME

Bet Dagan1.832.071.982.372.462.142.402.54

Jerusalem1.913.391.582.972.051.922.312.80

Haifa2.022.091.942.052.261.701.952.59

Har Knaan2.913.773.822.873.742.272.812.70

Mean 60-hours RMSE score with last 7 days bias correctionECMWFUKMOCO-ITGFSWRFCO-ILHRMGME

Bet Dagan1.381.441.581.641.671.671.681.65

Jerusalem1.512.241.332.101.521.551.712.08

Haifa1.671.651.451.451.591.421.641.63

Har Knaan1.742.231.751.591.721.571.951.95

COSMO-IL, nocturnal RH 10% underestimation

COSMO underestimates humidity!& misses fog

AWS obs.

We live in a dry environment but COSMO makes it worse!

CO-IT – icbc from ECMWFCO-IL – icbc from GME

obs obs obs obs obsCOCO

CO

COCO

Summary, IMS experience with

• Good Temperature and wind forecasts. • Underestimation of Relative Humidity and fog

appearance. • Strong underestimation of precipitation.• Hopefully we will mange together to improve

COSMO skills in the future.

Israeli Meteorological Service

Thanks