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TRANSCRIPT
2016 8GPV MSM 1
2016 8 16 9 1 Ca 2016 8 16 00 8 18 00
b 2016 8 19 00 8 22 00 c2016 8 22 00 8 24 00 d 20168 29 00 9 1 00
3
AHRODITE (1978-2009)15
AHRODITE (1978-2009)15
JMA, C-band 2016 8 17-31 [UTC]
500[mm/15days]
2016 8
( )
5
2016 8 500hPa +1STD
2016 8: 500hPa: 500hPa
( 5-6000m )
: 2016 8500hPa
+1STD
NCEP/NCAR(1948-2016.8)
, 40-50 (8 3125 ) 5, 6, 7, 9, 11
10
CTL NoTC NoTopo SST2 ENS Obs
CTL NoTC NoTopo SST2 ENS Obs
CTL NoTC NoTopo SST2 ENS Obs
+2
Z
WRF
NCEP
+222+2+2 ((( )
353.5
354
354.5
355
355.5
356
356.5
357
357.5
358
8/16 8/17 8/18 8/19 8/20 8/21 8/22 8/23 8/24 8/25 8/26 8/27 8/28 8/29 8/30 8/31
[m]
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
[mm/hr]
(C-band)(C(C-bab
8/19,20,2111
and)d)
8/22,23,249
8/29,30,3110
8/16,17
• 7 (1990 2009 ).• 20 5.8/ , 21 8.9/• 2010 21• 7,8 .• ,
(1994,2007,2010 )• .
16
(1994,2007,2010) (1991,1993,1998)
flux(850hPa)
Yamada et al. (2012)
2011
• (GCM) (RAM)
•(160 )
GCM/RAM JMA WRF RSM
MIROCPast 1990s 1990s 1990s
+2K 2050s 2050s 2050s
MPIPast 1990s 1990s 1990s
+2K 2060s 2060s 2060s
NCARPast 1990s 1990s 1990s
+2K 2080s 2080s 2080s
19
33
20
Aphr
odite
(‘90-
’07)
MIR
OC (p
ast)
MIR
OC (f
utur
e)
MPI
(pas
t)
MPI
(fut
ure)
NCAR
(pas
t)
NCAR
(fut
ure)
NHM
(pas
t)
NHM
(fut
ure)
RSM
(pas
t)
RSM
(fut
ure)
WRF
(pas
t)
WRF
(fut
ure)
All m
odel
(pas
t)
All m
odel
(fut
ure)
Prec
ipita
tion r
ate (
mm
)
0
350
250
150
50
( )
2
1.2(1.1 1.4)
mm
HP( 3 1.21 )
31.2 9
180km2
3399km2
but592km2
-
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
0.25 0.75 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5
1.21 1.36 ( )
(km
2 )
(m)
/ 2.2/ 3.3
1.21 1.36
0.5m 0.5-1.0m1.0-2.0m 2.0-4.0m 5.0m
21
180km2
3399km2
but592km2
276km2
-
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
0.25 0.75 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5
1.21 1.36 ( )
(km
2 )
(m)
/ 2.2/ 3.3/ 1.5
1.21 1.36 ( )
0.5m 0.5-1.0m1.0-2.0m 2.0-4.0m 5.0m
23
p(q*, t)t
a0q* (r q*)p(q*, t)
q*
122 (a0q*
TL )2 p(q*, t)q*
2
dq* a0q* (rq*)dt a0q*
TL dwFokker-Planck
(2016)
http://www.thr.mlit.go.jp/karyuu/_update/whatsnew/h15/2003_7_26_jishin_sokuhou/teiboukaisaku.htm
14.7K+200 15.0K+35
( )
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.46.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
hm
, ,
p h
Risk =
H.W.L.
= 50 mm/h,σ = 4 mm/h, m = 4
r
0.02 1
0.6 m7.3 m
PDF(h)
( )( )
320 1