02 renminbi monetary system prasad

7/31/2019 02 Renminbi Monetary System Prasad

1/79

T Rmb Rol th Globl Mot Stm

Eswar Prasad and Lei (Sandy) Ye

Fbu 2012


2/79

T R R G M S

Eswar Prasad and Lei (Sandy) Ye

F 2012


3/79

h e R e n m i n b i s R o l e i n t h e G l o b a l M o n e t a r y S y s t e m

BROOKINGS

II

S D I M

F R D , ,

IMF C D.

Lei (Sandy) Ye - C U.

Eswar Prasad S P P C

U. H B-

I, N CC I E, R

A N B E R-

. H F

About the Authors

Acknowledgments:

A N 2011 F R B S F

A R P-C G E. T S , S-J W

.


4/79


BROOKINGS

III

ExEcutivE Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1. introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

2. opEnnESSofthE capitalaccount . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4C C . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

D F O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

3. SEquEncingand coSt/BEnEfit tradE-offS rElatEdto capitalaccount liBEralization . . . 8

4. Evaluating chinaon conditionSforattaining gloBalcurrEncyStatuS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

D F M D . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16F M D R I F . . . . . . . . . 25

M P . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33

5. thE rEnminBiS intErnational prESEncE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35C M . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

C-B R S H K . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37

T R C R C B W . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41

6. implicationSofthE rEnminBiS aScEndancEforthE intErnationalmonEtarySyStEm. . . . 44I R R C-U.S. F F . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44

W R K D O I P . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49

T R SDR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51

7. concluSion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54

Box 2.1 C F C C E R W . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Box 5.1 S C C C C . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

appEndixES

a: changESto capitalcontrolSin china, 200410 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56

B: rEcEnt dEvElopmEntS pErtainingtothE intErnationaluSEofthE rEnminBi . . . . . . . 59

c: BilatErallocalcurrEncycEntralBankSwap agrEEmEntSwith chinaSincE 2008 . . 67

d: additionSof rEnminBito cEntralBankrESErvESacroSSthE world . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68

rEfErEncESand BiBliography. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69

Contents


5/79


BROOKINGS

Iv

P

.

S

.

T ,

. A C

H K

-

.

T

:

Economic size: A -

, ,

.

C 10

(15

) 9

. I 2011, -

-

GDP .

Opencapitalaccount: T

. C

-

. T

O

, C

. I ,

:

Internationalization: - - -

, ,

.

Capitalaccountconvertibility:

. A -

.

Reservecurrency:

.

C

. C

:

P -

.

E - -

.

A --

H K -

M.

Executive Summary


6/79


BROOKINGS

v

,

.

C -

.

G , C -

,

C .

W :

T - j,

,

. T -

,

.

T -

I-

M F S D

R .

A C

-

,

j

-

.

T -

,

.

,

.

Flexible exchange rate: R ,

. C ,

.

Financial market development: A

, -

. C

.

Macroeconomic policies: I

. C

GDP j

.

I -- ,C j :

S

,

-

, / -.

F -

;


7/79


BROOKINGS

1

1. Introduction

C

. O , C

. E

, C

. G C

GDP

,

.

I , -

:

(1) j -

-

, -

; (2)

C ;

(3) -

. T

- : ,

C -

; ,

.1

A -

,

. B

, ,

. G

C ,

-

.2 I ,

C -. T :

Economicsize: A GDP

, , -

.

Opencapitalaccount: R -

,

- . T

1 A C F (2005,2011), E (2011), L D (2011), Y (2011).

2 S, .., C, P S (2009); S (2011). D M (2009) K (2011) .A . (2011) U.S. .


8/79


BROOKINGS

2

W , 2, -

C

j . T

. T -

C

. A

, ,

, C -

. I , -

,

.

I 3,

C

-

/ -. A

. I -

, -

-

. A C

,

- ,

-

. T

-

-

. T j -

, ,

,

(Y 2011).

j .

Flexible exchange rate: R

- ,

. I

.

Financial market development: A

, - ,

. -

, ,

.

Macroeconomicpolicies: I -

, -

, -

.

T -

-

. F ,

S

S GDP

. M, j

, J

U.S. ,

() . S

U.S.

C

. B

.


9/79


BROOKINGS

3

R H K -

, --

H K M

,

--

-

. T

C .

I 6, -

-

, -

U.S. . W

--

C -

. W C

-

U.S.

. W

C

-

,

C

. T j -

.

F,

S D R (SDR) -

,

. W -

-

SDR

.

I 4, -

. A-

,

, . A -

(

)

,

U.S. -

.

-

C ,

. T

. T

-

.

W -

C ,

j

, -

. G C

,

C . W -

, -

,

/

- .

I 5,

.


10/79


BROOKINGS

4

2. Openness of the Capital Account

j . T

2.48,

. T C

2009 1.15,

C

, , .

taBlE 2-1. A Cross-Country Perspective on De

Jure Financial Openness

Country 1990 2000 2009

United States 2.48 2.48 2.48

United Kingdom 2.48 2.48 2.48

Switzerland N.A. 2.48 2.48

Japan 2.48 2.48 2.48

Germany 2.48 2.48 2.48

Brazil 1.84 1.15 0.43

Russia N.A. 0.79 0.17

South Arica 1.84 1.15 1.15

India 1.15 1.15 1.15

China 1.84 1.15 1.15

Note: T -

I M F, A R EA E R. N.A. = .

Source: U C I (2008)

W

-

C ,

j - -

. C j

, , C

. F , C-I

(C I 2008)

C j 1993. S -

I-

M FAnnualReportonExchangeArrangementsandExchangeRestrictions(AREAER).T

.3 B ,

.

Capital Controls

A j -

,

.

2-1 C-I -

1990 ( ), 2000,

2009.4 A

3 O j S (2009) M (2004). T S 2005 C. T M C.

4 T 1.84 () +2.48 (). T G , .


11/79


BROOKINGS

5

(.., )

GDP ( K

. 2009). F 2-1

C 2004 2010. T -

,

$6 -

. T

GDP 1.

figurE 2-1. De Facto Financial Openness in

China, 200410

2010200920082007200620052004

A. Levels of Gross External Positions(in trillions of U.S. dollars)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

LiabilitiesAssets

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2010200920082007200620052004

Liabilities

Assets

B. Gross External Positions as a Share of GDP(in percent)

Sources: IMF I F S W EO.

N, C

D ,

C

. I 2007,

-

$50,000 . M ,

-

(.., -

)

. F ,

2009,

. C -

,

. T

Q F-

I I

$1 ,

.

T

j -

,

. I A,

, IMF AREAER -

. T

-

, -

. I ,

-

.

De Facto OpennessA

. A -


12/79


BROOKINGS

6

j , C -

, -

.

P ,

,

C

.

. I ,

C

S-

( 2-2). A GDP,

-

. A , , C

, -

B

I. -

j

,

( 2.1).

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

Euro

Are

aU.S.

U.K.

Japa

nCh

ina

Switz

erland

Russia

Brazil

India

SouthAfric

a

Liabilities

Assets

B. Gross External Positions as a Share of GDP

(in percent)

Euro

Are

aU.S.

U.K.

Japa

nCh

ina

Switz

erlan

d

Russia

Brazil

India

SouthA

frica

A. Levels of Gross External Positions

(in trillions of U.S. dollars)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Liabilities

Assets

figurE 2-2. De Facto Financial Openness across Economies

Sources: IMF I F S W E O.


13/79


BROOKINGS

7

Box2.1: Capital Flows and Chinas Capital Exports to the Rest o the World

C . G

2000 2007 ( A ). F

, $406 2010, C

. O , . G 2009

$184 2010 ( B). S 2000, -

C ( C). F 2000 2010, C $2.8 ,

$845 ( $219

, FDI). I , -

. D , $1.8 ,

- ($1.1 ) FDI .

C ( net) $436 2008 2009

( E). I 2010, $472

$184 , , $406 .

Duringtheperiod2000-2011,Chinaonnetexportedabout$2trillionofnancialcapitaltotherestoftheworld( , C ).

Chinas Gross Capital Flows, 20002011 (in billions o U.S. dollars)

Year A. Gross Infows

B. Gross Outfows

(excludingreserves)

C. Reserve Assets

Accumulation

D. Financial

Account Balance

(excludingreserves)

E. Financial Account Balance

(including reserves)

2000 58.0 56.1 10.7 2.0 8.7

2001 41.6 6.7 47.4 34.8 12.6

2002 50.0 17.7 75.2 32.3 42.9

2003 67.6 14.8 137.5 52.8 84.7

2004 104.1 6.7 189.8 110.7 79.1

2005 183.4 86.4 251.0 96.9 154.0

2006 212.1 163.4 284.7 48.6 236.0

2007 262.9 170.8 460.7 92.0 368.6

2008 170.1 126.8 479.6 43.3 436.3

2009 201.5 24.6 400.5 176.9 223.7

2010 405.5 184.1 471.7 221.4 250.2

2011a 393.5 147.7 375.4 245.8 129.6

Notes:G . T .

T Q1 Q3 2011.Source: I M F, InternationalFinancialStatistics.


14/79


BROOKINGS

8

3. Sequencing and Cost/Benefitrade-Offs Related to Capital

Account Liberalization

T

. F

,

, -

. A

-

,

. T

-

( K .

2009). T ,

-

-

(P Rj 2008).

T

.5 A

. T

-

,

. D

,

C

-

(G

P 2007). M,

-

-

, .

T

U.S. , -

J

2005. W ,

J

2008, J 2010.

3-1 -

,

. T C

-

j .

5 S P, R W (2005) C. A Y (2011).


15/79


BROOKINGS

9

F 3-1 C 2000

. T

, 2010

FDI . A

C -

FDI 63

C () ( 3-2).

FDI 72

. FDI

. P

-

,

FDI. N,

FDI

j

,

-

.

A

,

,

. S- ---

-

j

,

-

. C

-

U.S. . T

- ,

C

. R ,

C

, . B

.

-

. O

. B

,

, .

W C

. T

, -

. W .

taBlE 3-1. Exchange Rate Volatility (percentage standard deviation o monthly log changes)

Country 19952011 200511a

Nominal NEER REER Nominal NEER REER

Brazil 4.2 4.0 4.0 3.7 3.2 3.1

China 0.3 1.3 2.0 0.4 1.3 1.9

India 1.6 1.5 1.6 2.0 1.6 1.7

Russiab 6.1 6.1 5.3 2.8 2.1 4.1

South Arica 3.9 3.5 3.4 4.4 3.5 3.5

Sources: I M F, I F S; NEER REER B I S (58 ).

Note: NEER REER (-) , . T - U.S. .

D 2011 O. NEER R J 1995.


16/79


BROOKINGS

10

600

400

200

0

-200

-400

-600

-800

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Portfolio and Other Investment Inflows

FDI Inflows

Reserve Accumulation

Portfolio and Other Investment Outflows

FDI Outflows

figurE 3-1. Chinas Balance o Payment Flows (in billions o U.S. dollars)

taBlE 3-2. Chinas International Investment Position (in billions o U.S. dollars)

Aspect o Position 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Net position 281 413 640 1,188 1,494 1,511 1,791

A. AssetsTotal 933 1,229 1,690 2,416 2,957 3,457 4,126

1. FDI 53 64 91 116 186 246 311

2. Portolio 92 117 265 285 253 243 257

Equity 0 0 1 20 21 55 63

Debt 92 117 264 265 231 188 194

3. Other investments 166 216 254 468 552 515 644

4. Reserve assets 623 831 1,081 1,547 1,966 2,453 2,914

Fx reserves 610 819 1,066 1,528 1,946 2,399 2,847

B. Liabilities

Total 653 816 1,050 1,228 1,463 1,946 2,3351. FDI 369 472 614 704 916 1,315 1,476

2. Portolio 57 77 121 147 168 190 222

Equity 43 64 106 129 151 175 206

Debt 13 13 14 18 17 15 15

3. Other investments 227 267 315 378 380 442 637

Source: IMF I F S.

Source: IMF I F S


17/79


BROOKINGS

11

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

Long-term public

Long-term private

Short-term

A. Levels (in billions of U.S. dollars)

0

5

10

15

20

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

Long-term publicLong-term private

Short-term

B. Ratio to GDP (In percent)

figurE 3-2. Evolution o External Debt, China

Sources:W B G D F, IMF W E O.


18/79


BROOKINGS

12

figurE 3-3. Comparative Perspective on Gross External Debt in 2010

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

15,000

SouthAfric

aInd

iaBr

azil

Russia

Chin

a

Switz

erlan

d

Japa

n

Germ

any

U.K.

U.S.

Euro

Are

a

A. Levels of Gross External Positions(in billions of U.S. dollars)

0

100

200

300

400

500

China

Brazil

India

SouthA

frica

Russia

Japa

nU.S.

Euro

Are

a

Germ

any

Switz

erlan

dU.K.

B. Ratio to GDP (in percent)

Sources:W B Q E D D G D F, EIU CD.

Notes:G , , .


19/79


BROOKINGS

13

$1.8 2010. I ,

C

. B ,

B, I

S A -

,

( 3-3).

T

. T U.S.

,

$2.5 2010. G, J S-

, J -

$3.1 . T

L A A

1980 1990. C

,

GDP 18

1993 j 9 2010 (

3-2). C -

( 3-3),

.

A

$3

.

I, C

-

EuroArea

Germany

Japan

Switzerland

U.K.

U.S.

Brazil

China

India

Russia

SouthAfrica

Net Position -1,649 1,383 3,088 786 -317 -2,471 -698 1,791 -223 16 -65

A. Assets

Total 21,971 8,550 6,919 3,285 14,539 20,315 595 4,126 410 1,173 304

1. FDI 6,277 1,426 831 911 1,675 4,429 175 311 94 369 89

2. Portolio 6,466 2,581 3,346 1,117 3,240 6,694 17 257 2 37 131

Equity 2,550 765 679 441 1,159 4,486 1 63 2 5 123

Debt 3,916 1,817 2,667 676 2,082 2,209 16 194 0 33 8

3. Other invst. 6,791 3,279 1,592 802 5,984 5,050 115 644 17 286 40

4. Resv. assets 790 217 1,097 269 78 489 289 2,914 298 479 44

Fx reserves 207 37 1,036 217 49 52 281 2,847 268 433 35

5. Fin. derivatives 1,648 1,048 53 186 3,563 3,653 0 0 0 2 0

B. Liabilities

Total 23,620 7,167 3,831 2,499 14,857 22,786 1,294 2,335 633 1157 369

1. FDI 4,967 957 215 576 1,076 2,659 473 1,476 198 493 148

2. Portolio 9,852 3,020 1,872 767 3,939 11,709 656 222 171 278 180

Equity 4,243 590 989 672 1,472 3,510 430 206 138 233 138

Debt 5,608 2,430 883 95 2,467 8,199 226 16 33 45 42

3. Other invst. 7,094 2,140 1,680 1,005 6,375 4,876 161 637 264 383 42

4. Fin. derivatives 1,708 1,051 65 150 3,467 3,542 4 0 0 3 0

Source: IMF I F S.

taBlE 3-3. International Investment Positions in 2010 (in billions o U.S. dollars)


20/79


BROOKINGS

14

(L D 2011). H,

-

,

.

R -

(E 2011). I,

.

T

-

j C-

,

(P 2011). A , C

-

, -

. B -

70 ,

j , . I

- -

, .

L

. I,

. L

C

- -

. I -

-

(S 2011; R

U.K.

. T

. I ,

-

, ,

. I

,

GDP 20002007

(, , -

)

U.K. U.S. ( 3-4).

taBlE 3-4. Average Current Account Balances:

2000-2007 (in percent o GDP)

Euro area 0.3Germany 3.2

Japan 3.4

Switzerland 11.7

United Kingdom -2.3

United States -4.9

Source: IMF W E O .

I , C j

.N,

-

-

.

M,

-

.

L

. T -

. B

-


21/79


BROOKINGS

15

W , -

.

C

. A

C j -

S .

C , -

,

C . I

,

- ,

, -

.6

A

/ -. Y (2011)

- j C-

,

-

. H -

, -. T

C ,

-

-

.

H 2009). F

, FDI -

.

T

. I -

,

,

C. F , C

$50,000 ,

$5,000. B - -

.

I ,

. T -

C -

. F ,

-

. T,

, ,

. O C -

, ,

. T

.

6 S P (2009) .


22/79


BROOKINGS

16

4. Evaluating China on Conditions forAttaining Global Currency Status

I

, C

- .

Domestic Financial MarketDevelopment

F

-

.7 H,

-

,

-

. T

:

Breadth: ,

;

Depth: -

; Liquidity: (

).

W , -

-

. I - ,

. O

-

. A

,

.

T, ,

.

F, - -

, j-

-

,

. H -

, ,

(E

F 2010). I C ,

7 S (1991); C F (2007); F (2009); O (2011).


23/79


BROOKINGS

17

. F 4-1

,

$8.8 M 2011,

. D-

-

, - -

, . 4-1

200710.

I ,

80 . C -

,

186 GDP 2010. T

j

, U.K., -

j ( 4-2).

. T

, , C

- -

(F

2011). T

.

I , C

-

, , -

. O -

C -

,

.

C -,

-

0

5

10

15

20

201120102009200820072006200520042003200220012000

Equity

Bonds

Domestic Credit

figurE 4-1. Domestic Financing Prole, China (in trillions o U.S. dollars)

Source: ABO, A D B.Notes:T , , .


24/79


BROOKINGS

18

C ,

(H 2007). T

-

. I

-

.

O C

. I 2005,

C . T

. M -

2005,

( 4-2).

B

2008, - GDP, -

( 4-3). B

2009 2010. A

2010, C

-

U.S.,

taBlE 4-1. Use o Loans o Financial

Institutions in China

(in trillions o U.S. dollars)

2007 2008 2009 2010

Total 3.58 4.44 6.23 7.57

Resident/

Household 0.69 0.83 1.20 1.70

Non-fnancial

Corporate2.89 3.60 5.03 5.87

Source:P B C.

Notes: E-- U.S. -- .

T C

. P

. T

0

50

100

150

200

250

U.K.ChinaJapanGermanyIndiaU.S.Brazil

figurE 4-2. Bank Deposits, 2010 (as a ratio to GDP)

Source: CEIC .


25/79


BROOKINGS

19

( 4-3). A -

-

,

.

M, C

. F

,

-

.

N, -

C -

-

. F 4-4

, . N -

2005.

4-4 -

.

B , C

-

. 4-5

taBlE 4-3. Equity Markets across Countries in 2010

Brazil

China

EuroArea

Germany

India

Japan

Russia

Switzerland

SouthAfrica

U.K.

U.S.

Market

capitalization

(bn USD)

1,546 4,763 6,277 1,430 1,616 4,100 1,005 1,229 1,013 3,107 17,139

Stocks traded

(bn USD)

901 8,030 4,656 1,405 1,057 4,280 800 869 340 3,007 30,455

Turnover ratio 0.66 1.64 0.75 1.03 0.76 1.14 0.86 0.76 0.40 1.02 1.89

Source:W B W D I.

Notes: . D C S S S E.

taBlE 4-2. Evolution o Equity Markets in

China: 2000-2011

Marketcapitalization

(billionsof

U.S.

dollars)

Stockstraded

(billionsof

U.S.

dollars)

Turnoverratio

2000 581 722 1.58

2001 524 449 0.81

2002 463 333 0.68

2003 681 477 0.83

2004 640 748 1.13

2005 781 586 0.83

2006 2,426 1,635 1.02

2007 6,226 7,792 1.80

2008 2,794 5,471 1.21

2009 5,008 8,956 2.30

2010 4,763 8,030 1.64

2011 (Nov.) 3,650 - -

Sources:W B W D I, CEIC.

Notes: . D C

S S S E.


26/79


BROOKINGS

20

0

50

100

150

200

250

20102009200820072006200520042003200220012000

Stocks traded

Market capitalization

figurE 4-3. Equity Markets in China: 2000-2010 (in percent o GDP)

Source:WB W D I.

Notes:D C S S S E.

taBlE 4-4. Turnover o Government and Corporate Bonds, China

Government Bonds Corporate Bonds

Turnover (billions

U.S. dollars)Turnover Ratio

Turnover (billions

U.S. dollars)Turnover Ratio

2002 11 0.03 0.3 0.04

2003 105 0.25 0.2 0.02

2004 97 0.17 0.6 0.03

2005 214 0.27 40 0.73

2006 273 0.26 78 0.78

2007 623 0.43 114 0.79

2008 1,518 0.79 213 0.91

2009 1,170 0.57 478 1.12

2010 2,299 0.96 776 1.25

Source: ABO, A D B, .

Notes: . . R . C .


27/79


BROOKINGS

21

Q42010

Q42009

Q42008

Q42007

Q42006

Q42005

Q42004

Q42003

Q42002

Q42001

Q42000

Q41999

Q41998


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Financial

Non-financial corporates

Government

Q42010

Q42009

Q42008

Q42007

Q42006

Q42005

Q42004

Q42003

Q42002

Q42001

Q42000

Q41999

Q41998


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

FinancialNon-financial corporates

Government

figurE 4-4. Evolution o Domestic Debt Securities, China

Sources: Q BIS EIUCD, .

Notes:T J 2011. R GDP .


28/79


BROOKINGS

22

C

. T

,

,

- U.S.

. I -

C

G-

J ( J,

).

F 4-5

D 2010. A -

,

B I S

-

(C G F

S 2007, 18). C

$3 ,

2010

. T U.S.

-

,

j . T

C ,

,

$2.4 2010,

$8.9 U.S. T

C 1.0,

14.3 U.S. T -

I

C, I -

.8 B

,

.

taBlE 4-5. Government and Corporate Bond Turnover, 2010: A Cross-Country Perspective

Government Corporate

Amount

outstanding

TurnoverTurnover

ratio

Amount

outstanding

TurnoverTurnover

ratioUS 8,853 126,756 14.3 7,519 3,922 0.5

Euro area 7,926 - - 5,536 - -

Germany 1,400 7,834 5.6 335 - -

China 2,388 2,299 1.0 620 776 1.3

Japan 10,480 12,076 1.2 1,107 76 0.1

India 520 1,155 2.2 191 141 0.7

Sources:S A U S, S I F M A (SIFMA), E C B, B,T F F S A, ABO, CEIC , S E B I, .

Notes: T U.S. . C C, E , G, J . N U.S. I.

8 I , C J 4-4 4-5 . I , . E.., C 2010 $7.2 $2.9 ,. S, ( D 2010) 3.0 4.6,. F J, $46 $0.3 , 4.34 0.28. T 2011 ChinaFinancialStabilityReport 64 ($9.6 ) 2010 (PBC 2011).


29/79


BROOKINGS

23

-

. W -

, C

. T

C

.

T C

-

j (-

4-6). T C

,

. I

,

U.S.,

, J. T U.S.

$25 . I, C

U.K. S,

. T -

C .

C

. O-

(2011) , ,

. I ,

-

. H,

-

SouthAfric

a

Switz

erlan

dIn

dia

Brazil

U.K.

Chin

a

Euro

Are

a

Japa

nU.S.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Financial

Non-financial corporates

Government

figurE 4-5. Domestic Debt Securities, 2010: By Residence and Sector o Issuance

(in trillions o U.S. dollars)

Source: BIS .Notes:T . E E.


30/79


BROOKINGS

24

.

taBlE 4-6. International Bonds and Notes

Outstanding (selected currencies; in

billions o U.S. dollars)

2010 % o total

U.S. dollar 10,503.0 39.2

Euro 11,795.0 44.1

Pound sterling 2,089.0 7.8

Yen 761.0 2.8

Swiss ranc 401.0 1.5

South Arican rand 36.0 0.1

Brazilian real 35.0 0.1

Renminbi 19.0 0.1

Russian rouble 15.1 0.1

Indian rupee 1.5 0.0

Total 26773.0

Source: BIS

Notes: T . BIS.

j. T, -

j

C .

A j - ,

. H,

(..,

) . T

,

U.S. 83 -

2010 ( 4-6). T

96 -. O 0.1

. T

j . F -

, I,

-

,

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

JapanU.S.Euro AreaGermanyU.K.BrazilIndiaSwitzerlandSouth AfricaChinaRussia

Gross debt

Net debt

2010 2016 2010 20162010 20162010 20162010 20162010 20162010 20162010 20162010 2016 2010 20162010 2016

figurE 4-6. General Government Debt as a Share o GDP: Major Advanced, Emerging Market

Economies (in percent)

Source:IMF W E O.

Notes:T , . D C, I, R . 2010 C IMF .


31/79


BROOKINGS

25

. W

-

, C

. E

-

. M,

-

, -

C

.

Financial Market Development Re-lated to International rade andFinancial ransactions

A

-

. A

,

. T -

K (1995) -

,

, .

F 4-7 C

-

. 20089,

$3.2 -

, 54 GDP, 2010. T C

U.S. ( 4-8). F

, C

GDP, U.S.

. 4-7 C

9 ,

A -

C - -

, growth . A ,

, ,

. T

30.3 D 1998 D

2010 ( 4-4 ). T

C

$19 2010, -

2005. T -

, 17

$522 2010. F,

, -

2000.

T C

. N,

- . T

-

, , - (C F

2007). I , -

C

, ,

50 51 5 6 . I

-

, C

.

O, - C

, ,

(L 2009, 2011). B -

. T

. M ,


32/79


BROOKINGS

26

0

500

1000

1500

2000

201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990

Exports

Imports


201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990

Exports

Imports


10

15

20

25

30

35

40

figurE 4-7. Chinas Exports and Imports, 1990-2010

Source:W B W D I (WDI).

Notes: .


33/79


BROOKINGS

27

Euro

Are

aU.S.

China

Germ

any

Japa

nU.K.

India

Russia

Switz

erlan

dBr

azil

SouthA

frica

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Exports

Imports

A. Levels (in trillions of U.S. dollars)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Switz

erlan

d

Germ

any

Euro

Are

aU.K.

China

SouthAfric

a

Russia

India

Japa

nU.S.

Brazil


Exports

Imports

figurE 4-8. Cross-Country Perspective on Trade in 2010

Source: EIU CD .

Notes: E . F - .


34/79


BROOKINGS

28

I ,

-

. T

. U

, E M (2011) ,

2010, C

,

2000. C

,

. T U.S.

-

,

.9

T C -

. T -

-

.

W -

. A -

,

U.S. -

. F

-

. A 2010,

1 (

200 , -

)

( 4-8). T

. T U.S.

, 85 - 2010. T

162 .

U.S. (

).

T C

.

taBlE 4-7. Share o World Trade acrossEconomies in 2010 (in percent)

A. Trade in Goods and Nonactor Services

Exports Imports Total

Trade

Euro Area 26.5 26.2 26.4


China 9.4 8.4 8.9

Germany 8.3 7.5 7.9

Japan 4.7 4.4 4.5


Russia 2.4 1.8 2.1

India 1.9 2.4 2.1

Switzerland 1.8 1.6 1.7

Brazil 1.3 1.3 1.3

South Arica 0.5 0.6 0.5

B. Trade in Goods

Exports Imports Total

Trade

Euro Area 13.0 12.5 12.8


China 10.5 9.2 9.8

Germany 8.4 7.0 7.7

Japan 5.1 4.6 4.8


Russia 2.7 1.8 2.2

India 1.5 2.2 1.8

Brazil 1.3 1.3 1.3Switzerland 1.2 1.1 1.2

South Arica 0.5 0.6 0.6

Sources:EIU CD IMF I F S.

9 T N ; . T : G (2), K (7), J (9), I (14), R (19) B (20).


35/79


BROOKINGS

29

taBlE 4-8. Currency Distribution o Global Foreign Exchange Market Turnover (selected currencies;

in percent)

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

U.S. dollar 86.8 89.9 88.0 85.6 84.9

Euro ... 37.9 37.4 37.0 39.1

Deutsche mark 30.5 ... ... ... ...

Japanese yen 21.7 23.5 20.8 17.2 19.0

Pound sterling 11.0 13.0 16.5 14.9 12.9

Swiss ranc 7.1 6.0 6.0 6.8 6.4

Indian rupeea,b 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.9

Russian roublea 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.9

Chinese renminbib 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9

South Arican randa, b 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.7

Brazilian reala, b 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.7

All currencies 200.0 200.0 200.0 200.0 200.0

Source:BISNotes:T 200%, .D j - - (.., - ). () F 1998, . () I BIS 2010.

taBlE 4-9. Geographical Distribution o Global Foreign Exchange Market Turnover (selected

economies; in percent)

1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

Brazil 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3

China 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4

Germany 4.8 4.7 5.4 4.6 2.4 2.1

Hong Kong 5.6 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.7

India 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.9 0.5

Japan 10.3 7.0 9.0 8.0 5.8 6.2

Russia 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.2 0.8

South Arica 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3

Switzerland 5.4 4.4 4.5 3.3 5.9 5.2

United Kingdom 29.3 32.6 31.8 32.0 34.6 36.7

United States 16.3 18.3 16.0 19.1 17.4 17.9

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source:BIS.

Notes:D j - (.. - ). E 90 100 . D B 1998 . D C 1998 2004 .


36/79


BROOKINGS

30

,

. B

, C

B I

. O

,

. T

-

,

.

4-11 A

2010 j -

. C

-

. I

,

. L

,

I

, , C -

H K

. I

2010, H K 5

( 4-9). T

-

.

R -

, -

. 4-10

A 2010

, , ,

. S -

24

C,

,

30 . F, C

taBlE 4-10. Currency and Instrument Distribution o Global Foreign Exchange Market Turnover.

(percentage shares o average daily turnover in April 2010)

SpotOutright

orwards

Foreign

exchange

swaps

Currency

swaps

Options

and other

instruments

U.S. dollar 35.2 11.6 47.4 1.1 4.7

Euro 44.4 9.6 39.2 1.1 5.6

Japanese yen 39.7 15.2 36.9 0.9 7.2

Pound sterling 41.6 10.7 43.4 0.5 3.9

Swiss ranc 36.4 7.5 50.2 0.7 5.3

S. Arican rand 31.7 9.9 54.3 0.5 3.6

Russian rouble 50.6 6.3 39.7 0.5 2.9

Indian rupee 35.8 36.1 18.0 0.1 9.9

Brazilian real 31.3 47.3 2.9 1.4 17.1

Chinese renminbi 23.7 41.6 19.9 0.2 14.6

Source: BIS.

Notes:T , , . D j - - - (.., - ).


37/79


BROOKINGS

31

U.S. $93 $86 ,

( 4-12). T

$389 ,

B I.

taBlE 4-12. Over-the-Counter Interest Rate

Derivatives (Gross notional

outstanding in billions o U.S.

dollars as o Oct 21, 2011)

G-14

Dealers

Non-G14

dealersTotal

Euro 28,528 64,675 93,203

U.S. dollar 41,950 45,036 86,986

Japanese yen 8,010 24,490 32,500

Pound sterling 7,775 13,625 21,400

Swiss ranc 1,098 1,995 3,093

S. Arican rand 491 1,430 1,921

Brazilian real 290 704 994

Indian rupee 317 492 809

Chinese renminbi 124 265 389

Russian rouble 47 86 133

Source: -O.

Notes:G-14 14 -O. N-G14 .

. T -

j . I -

I

C,

I

.

T

. I 2005

C -

. F

C F

E S .

S C -

-2000. I

2005, C - .

T -- (OC) -

,

2006. A O-

2011,

OC

taBlE 4-11. Turnover in Global Foreign Exchange Market, April 2010 (daily averages in billions o

U.S. dollars during April 2010)

SpotOutrightorwards

Foreignexchange

swaps

Currencyswaps

Optionssold

Optionsbought

Totaloptions

Totaloreign

exchange

contracts

U.S. dollar 1,188 392 1,600 38 106 101 160 3,378

Euro 691 150 610 18 57 55 87 1,555

Japanese yen 300 115 279 7 35 31 55 755

Pound sterling 213 55 222 3 13 13 20 513

Swiss ranc 92 19 127 2 9 8 13 253

Indian rupee 14 14 7 0 2 2 4 38

Russian rouble 18 2 14 0 1 1 1 36

Chinese renminbi 8 14 7 0 3 4 5 34

S. Arican rand 9 3 16 0 1 1 1 29

Brazilian real 9 13 1 0 3 3 5 27

Source:BIS.


38/79


BROOKINGS

32

H K

O 2010 O 2011. A

M

, , -

.

, -

C -

. A

,

C

-

. T

-

. U,

C -

.

A C

, j

. F ,

/ ,

C

20

2010. U F I A-

,

7

78

. A

,

, , ,

.

T -

C -

. ,

H K -

-

. F-

4-9

0

30

60

90

120

150

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

Renmimbi deposits (billions of U.S dollars)

Number of authorized institutions engaged in Renminbi business

figurE 4-9. Renminbi Deposits in Hong Kong, Jan. 2005 Oct. 2011

Source:M H K M A .


39/79


BROOKINGS

33

j

1970 1980,

(-

4-10). O , , P-

B C -

--

C

. T

, ,

.

taBlE 4-13. Volatility o Annual CPI Ination

(standard deviation)

A. Reserve Currency Economies

1970-

2010

1980-

2010

1990-

2010

2000-

2010

Euro Area - - 0.6 0.5

Germany 2.0 1.6 1.1 0.7

Japan 4.8 1.8 1.3 0.7

Switzerland 2.6 1.9 1.5 0.5

United Kingdom 5.4 3.1 1.8 1.3

United States 3.1 2.3 1.2 1.1

B. Key Emerging Markets

1970-

2010

1980-

2010

1990-

2010

2000-

2010

Brazil 572.1 640.3 668.1 2.6

China - 7.8 6.6 2.1

India 5.8 3.8 4.1 3.6

Russia - - 221.0 3.8

South Arica 4.5 4.9 4.0 3.4

Sources: IMF I F S, G FD.

Notes:E 1999 2010. D , C R 1987-2010 1993-2010,.

Macroeconomic Policies

A

, (O 2011, .3). T

- -

-

. A , C -

j -

. T

,

-

. M, C -

IM F

1.6 2011, -

1 2012. I j

, -

C -

.

D ,

, C

. 4-13

-

, -

. D 20002010,

G M

,

j . T

1 . D ,

3 4 , C

, 2 .

I , C

-

. I,


40/79


BROOKINGS

34

(

)

( ). I

-

. T

-

,

-

. T ,

,

j C-

.

-5201020052000199519901985198019751970

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

United States

United Kingdom

Switzerland

Japan

Germany

Euro Area

Figure 4-10. Annual CPI Ination Rates o Reserve Currency Economies (in percent)

Sources: IMF I F S, G F D.

A -

-

. A -

, C j

.

I ,

.

A L (2011) (IMF 2011) -

, -

. I

. M,


41/79


BROOKINGS

35

5. he Renminbis International Presence

M

.

C CNY, j M- , CNH

j

(H B

2010).

F 5-1

U.S. -

.10 D

CNH,

2010. T

2010 -

. T

H K

H K

; -

PBC

H K M A;

- .

T

() .

T

,

C -

C

. B 5.1 -

j C

2009

. A

B. S

(F

2011). I ,

.

Currency Markets

T (CNY)

(CNH) . O

C F E

S, P

B C (PBC). T -

H K I M-.

10 I , - - (NDF) . T NDF CNH , M . H, NDF CNY CNY . T - - , CNH .


42/79


BROOKINGS

36

Box5.1: Summary o Changes to Capital Controls in China and Major Steps Taken to

Internationalize the RMB, 200911

Changes to Capital Controls

August2009.R -

. E . C , j S

A F E, j .

September2009. L Q F I I $1 -, ,

- - - .

August2010. F , H K M RMB , RMB M ,

j .

Major Steps toward RMB Internationalization

April2009.S C RMB - . C- J 2009.

September2009.M F RMB- H K.

November2009. I M C H S.

March2010. PBC N B B - , .

June2010. RMB 20 .

July2010.B C (H K) RMB .

July2010.H K RMB .

July2010.H H RMB- H K.August2010.F RMB .

August2010.MD RMB H K, .

October2010.O RMB .

October2010. P j .

December2010.T C - 365 67,359.

January2011. R 20 RMB FDI.

January2011.B C RMB N Y C.

August2011.C- RMB .

October2011. B RMB-- .

November2011.JP M A M $1 RMB- Q L P P, RMB--

.

December2011. C J .


43/79


BROOKINGS

37

B , -

,

CNH -

CNY

. T

. E

,

2011,

CNH CNY

, .

A

,

H K

. A , C -

-

. S

C . A , ,

-

, -

. T -

.

Cross-Border Renminbi Settlementin Hong Kong

C j

, H

K. I, H K

. I 2004,

H K

. S , , -

-

.

G C ,

,

11/23/11

12/23/11

1/23

/12

10/23/11

9/23

/11

8/23

/11

7/23

/11

6/23

/10

5/23

/10

4/23

/11

3/23

/11

2/23

/11

1/23

/11

12/23/10

11/23/10

10/23/10

9/23

/10

8/23

/10

CNH-USD offshore

CNY-USD onshore

6

6.1

6.2

6.3

6.4

6.5

6.6

6.7

6.8

6.9

figurE 5-1. Onshore and Ofshore Renminbi-US dollar Exchange Rates

Source: B.

Notes:T - U.S. (CNY) (CNH), 08/23/2010 1/24/2012. CNH . E - .


44/79


BROOKINGS

38

. O -

- -

-

. T

C

-

.

F 5-3

- H

K. D 2011,

$25 ,

2010. C- -

H K,

. I

H K 73

C 2010

-

(E 2011). F 5-2

- -

2010. I

, -

C $93 (

2011). D

2011, -

8 C

.

D

C,

. B ,

C

,

C

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Q3 2011 Q4 2011Q2 2011Q1 2011Q4 2010Q3 2010Q2 2010Q1 2010

Services trade and other current account

Import

Export

Total

figurE 5-2. Cross-Border Renminbi Settlement (in billions o U.S. dollars)

Source:CEIC . IMF Q4 2010.

Notes:T - , , .


45/79


BROOKINGS

39

. A -

, , H

K I M RMB -

M 6, 2006,

, RMB ,

, . F-

5-5

-2010, H K

- . S ,

. T

$550 A 2010,

S-

2011.

A ,

A

. S , .

F,

, -

.

86

2011 (HKMA 2011). T

- -

M

J 23, 2011.

A j - H K,

. P A -

5-4 2007 2010,

, $6

2010. I 2011 ,

$11 ,

2010 -

( B). I

2011,

-

.

A -

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

M1011

M1111

M911

M811

M711

M611

M511

M411

M311

M211

M111

M1210

M1110

M1010

M910

M810

M710

figurE 5-3. Renminbi Remittances: Cross-Border Trade Settlement (in billions o U.S. dollars)

Source:CEIC .


46/79


BROOKINGS

40

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

20112010200920082007

A. Annual

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2011 Q42011 Q32011 Q22011 Q12010 Q42010 Q32010 Q22010 Q1

Other

Industrial

Supranational

Govt-National

Govt Agency

Financial

Bank

B. Quarterly by Industry of Issuance

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Other

Europe

U.S.

Other Asia and Pacific

Supranational

Hong Kong

Mainland China

2011 Q42011 Q32011 Q22011 Q12010 Q42010 Q32010 Q22010 Q1

C. Quarterly by Source Country

0

2

46

8

10

12

figurE 5-4. Renminbi Bond Issuance in Hong Kong (in billions o U.S. dollars)

Sources: CEIC, B .

Notes: G A - C D B. S A D B. A 2010 A 5.44 U.S. , 2010 B C 6.24 U.S. . T . P A H KM A CEIC. P B C B .


47/79


BROOKINGS

41

-

. M , -

A S-

A N + 3 C

M I 2000.12 A C

P, S K, J,

(..,

T) - . U

, C U.S. -

-

.13 I ,

C

.

S,

M C. T

B C 5-4. T, -

- -

-

M H K .11 T

.

he Renminbi Creates Ripples inthe Central Banking World

T PBC

. C

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Sep201

1

Jun201

1

Mar201

1

Dec201

0

Sep201

0

Jun201

0

Mar201

0

Dec200

9

Sep200

9

Jun200

9

Mar200

9

Dec200

8

Sep200

8

Jun200

8

Mar200

8

Dec200

7

Sep200

7

Jun200

7

Mar200

7

Dec200

6

Sep200

6

Jun200

6

Mar200

6

Right scale: Volume (thousands)

Left scale: Value (billions of U.S. dollars)

Source:CEIC

figurE 5-5. Renminbi Clearing Transactions: Hong Kong Interbank Market

11 S, .., R T D C S, FinancialTimes, N 23, 2011.12 T C M I A S A N + 3

- .13 T K J 2002 - . T

P 2003 , , - C RMB P P ( H 2009; I 2011).


48/79


BROOKINGS

42

C (RMB) -

U S (USD),

(EUR) B (GBP).14

F, C C

B 0.3

- -

, S 2011 Mon-etaryPolicyReport.

O

( -

D). A -

I M F, -

( ) .

B

, -

, j j -

,

. A

-

.

I D 2011, C J

.15

$300

2010,

$100 . A

-

, --

. M, - ,

. O , -

,

S 2008, C -

,

- . A-

C , ,

. I

,

. T

,

$205 .

T

. T H K

M A (HKMA) -

PBC O 2010,

. A 2010,

HKMA 20

, $3 (HKMA 2010). T PBC

2010 AnnualReport -2010,

803.5 . T PBC -

30 -

-

(PBC 2010, 33). T

10 , $1.5 , H K. N, PBC

- -

.

A ,

,

. M N

, - 2011. T C B

N S 5, 2011,

14 N A I C R E R, C B N P R, S 5, 2011.15 E C F M D C J, P B C, D 25, 2011.


49/79


BROOKINGS

43

,

. A,

,

C .

. C

J B I C-

- ,

J C


50/79


BROOKINGS

44

6. Implications of the Renminbi sAscendance for the InternationalMonetary System

. T -

- U.S.

.

C

, -

- U.S.--

. D U.S.

I C S (IC) -

U.S. . 6-1 , IC , C 12 -

, ,

2 . T

C

2010 $1.3 ,

. P A 6-2 C

U.S.

- ,

, .16 C

U.S. . F - -, C U.S.

( 6-2,

B), -

. O C

T

, - ,

-

. I , -

. W

.

Implications of a Rising Renminbifor China-U.S. Financial Flows

O

C ,

$3.2 2011 (-

6-1, ). T

50 C GDP,

C

j .

I 2010 -

2011,

$200 ( 6-1, ).T

2011, . T

2011,

16 I, C - U.S. 2009. T, , .


51/79


BROOKINGS

45

U.S.

$100 C . M ,

C

. T

U.S.

.

U.S.

.

T U.S.

C (

) . F 6-3

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2011201020092008200720062005

A. Foreign Exchange Reserve Stocks: Q1 2005 Q4 2011

0

50

100

150

200

250

2011201020092008200720062005

B. Accumulation of Foreign Exchange Reserves: Q1 2005 Q4 2011

-50

figurE 6-1. Chinas Foreign Exchange Reserves (in billions o U.S. dollars)

Sources: IMF I F S, CEIC.

Note: D -- .


52/79


BROOKINGS

46

, . B

-

-

. M,

C (C

P 2010; L 2011). A -

-

, -

. A -

C

. F , -

, -

,

,

.

S -

C

. I ,

. I - -

taBlE 6-1. Chinas Holdings o U.S. Government Debt

March 30, 2000 June 30, 2011

Treasuries Agencies Treasuries Agencies

Total Outstanding Held by the Public 3,519 3,334 9,742 7,185

Total Held by Foreigners 884 261 4,501 1,197

Chinas Holdings 71 20 1,166 332

Chinas Share o Foreign Holdings 8.0% 7.5% 25.9% 27.8%

Chinas Share o Total Outstanding 2.0% 0.6% 12.0% 4.6%

Foreign Share o Total Outstanding 25.1% 7.8% 46.2% 16.7%

Sources: IC S, F R F F, B P D, .

Notes:T U.S. . . I I, D $5.8 M 30, 2000 $14.3 J 30, 2011. - GSE- GSE-

- . C J 30, 2011 J 30,2010 - . T IC S C - , j C . S A S A F E.

C

, -

, U.S.

T j U.S.

-

. T -

C

. H U.S.

U.S. G

C,

. T

, ,

C

U.S. .

W C

I

, -

C

-

. C


53/79


BROOKINGS

47

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Treasury Bonds, Notes

Treasury Bills, Certificates

Corporate Debt

Agency Debt

Equity

201020092008200720062005200420032002

A. China

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Treasury Bonds, NotesTreasury Bills, Certificates

Corporate Debt

Agency Debt

Equity

China

Japa

nU.

K.

Switz

erlan

d

Germ

any

Russ

iaBr

azil

India

Sout

hAfri

ca

B. Cross-Country, June 2010

Figure 6-2. Foreign Portolio Holdings o U.S. Portolio Securities (in billions o U.S. dollars)

Source: U.S. D .


54/79


BROOKINGS

48

Figure 6-3. U.S. Portolio Holdings o Foreign Securities (in billions o US dollars)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

20102009200820072006200520042003

Short-term Debt

Long-term Debt

Equity

A. China

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

B. Cross-Country, June 2010

U.K.Ja

pan

Switz

erland

Germ

anyBr

azilCh

inaIn

dia

Sout

hAf

ricaRu

ssia

Short-term Debt

Long-term Debt

Equity

Source: U.S. D .


55/79


BROOKINGS

49

. T,

-

C

.

Will the Renminbi Knock theDollar Off Its Pedestal?

T U.S.

. I

,

7 , 18 25 ,

20002003 ( 6-4). M

-

. S , ,

,

63 2010.

H,

,

( 6-5). T

-

I M F.

C I,

$3.5 . G

, , -

. O ,

-

-U.S. ,

( 6-6).

D , j

U.S. ,

U.S. . A

F R -

- ,

. F

,

. C ,

C I C (CIC),

-

U.S.

. 6-2

CIC

- . T

36 2009 48

2010. A -

,

2010, 13 2009.

Table 6-2. China Investment Corporations

Global Portolio Distribution (in

percent)

Total Holdings

2009 2010

Cash Funds and Other 32 4

Equity 36 48

Fixed Income Securities 26 27

Alternative Investments 6 21

Diversied Fixed-Income Securities

2009 2010

Government Agency Bond 27 9

Government Bond 44 38

Asset-Backed Securities 8 12

Corporate Bond 13 32

Other Structured Products 8 9

Sources: F 2 3 C I C AR, 2010. F 5 C I C AR, 2009.

Notes: CIC $374

2010, ( ) $135 (CIC A R 2010, 9).

A C -

-

,

C


56/79


BROOKINGS

50

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

201120102009200820072006200520042003200220012000

Swiss franc

Yen

Pound sterling

Euro

Dollar

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

201120102009200820072006200520042003200220012000

allocated

unallocated

figurE 6-4. Reserve Currency Shares o Total Allocated Reserves (in percent)

figurE 6-5. Shares o Allocated and Unallocated Reserves (in percent)

Source: Q IMF C C F E R (COFER).Note: D 2010 Q3 2011 Q2 .

Source: Q IMF C C F E R (COFER).Note: D 2010 Q3 2011 Q2 .

0

20

40

60

80

100

2000 2005 2010

TotalTo banksTo nonbanks

figurE 6-6. U.S. Dollar Share o Cross-Border Foreign Currency Liabilities o Non-U.S. Banks.

(in percent)

Source:BIS


57/79


BROOKINGS

51

6-7 U.S.

90 GDP, IMF

110 GDP, $21

, 2016. T -

. T -

,

J , -

,

.

F 6-7 -

C U.S.

.

T , U.S.

-

.

R U.S.

, C

- - .

he Renminbi and the SDR

T I M F S D-

R

IMF. I U.S. , ,

J . SDR

IMF

. T SDR

$320 .17 SDR

-

-

. T SDR

. B - SDR

, SDR

(O 2011).

0

5

10

15

20

25

ChinaU.S.

PBC Bonds

Gross Debt

Net Debt

2010 20102016 2016

A. Levels (in trillions of US dollars)

ChinaU.S.

PBC Bonds

Gross Debt

Net Debt

2010 20102016 2016


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

figurE 6-7. Gross and Net General Government

Debt

Sources: IMF W E O, CEIC, .

Notes:D C . 2010 C IMF .

17 T 204 SDR U.S. N 23, 2011, 0.643 SDR $1.


58/79


BROOKINGS

52

C

SDR . T -

P B C (

S A F

E), Y G, IMF

SDR

IMF

BRICS [B, R, I, C S

A -

] -

S D R

(SDR) 2015. B Y

C SDR

.18

SDR 5

,

SDR

. B

,

SDR -

. -

,

SDR .

H,

SDR ,

-

.

T IMF 2010 -

E B

: D -

C -

-

, C

T 2011

SDR. T F

, G

2011,

, -

. A G-20 C Nj M

2011, F N S

: I

-

SDR

, W

j -

C, j

.

T

N 2011 G-20 S C -

: W SDR

j -

. T SDR

-

, IMF . A SDR

, -

. T

. W

SDR

2015, , -

,

IMF , -

. D

, S

: T [ - SDR ], C -

I

.

18 S C FX H P A BRICS C SDR, R, M 5, 2011.


59/79


BROOKINGS

53

V

V

--

E -

C

.

T -

,

SDR -

. C

. I

. T IMF

. F , -

, IMF

-

. T

C D,

,

( ) .

SDR

. D

.19 T,

IMF -

,

SDR

.

, SDR

(1) IMF (

IMF )

, (2) -

IMF . T -

2000 ,

SDR . T IMF

(1)

, (2)

. T, -

-

SDR . B , IMF

B P

,

. T SDR -

,

( )

.

I N 2011, IMF -

SDR :20

19 IMF E B C 2010 R SDR V, IMF P I N 10/149.20 IMF E B D C B SDR C B, IMF P I N 11/137. F

, C B SDR C B, I M F, S 2011.


60/79


BROOKINGS

54

7. Conclusion

.

T C

. T

. T U.S. -

-

j (E

F 2010). T

C -

- .

, C

H K . O

,

,

S .

A C - -

,

j

-

. M,

G

, C

-

.W

C . A

j , C

. T

. T - j,

,

-

.T

,

.

I,

-

. T

C J D

2011 C -

, A ,

-

-

C. T ,

,


61/79


BROOKINGS

55

T C

-

j

. T

C

,

-

,

C .

T C -

. U, C

-

.

,

,

. O

,

-

, -

.

E -

,

I-

M F S D R

. T IMF

C C IMF,

SDR

IMF

C

.


62/79


BROOKINGS

56

T

P

W (2007) J 31, 2011. R

: IMFAnnualReportsonExchangeArrange-ments andExchangeRestrictions (AREAER, 200411). A .

Changes during January1.U C E P

A, (1) H

K S A R (SAR)-

M C

$6 $20 ; (2)

M C H K SAR

j j

M C ;

(3) M C HK ,

-

M

.

June27. F- -

.

June27.C

-

.

December 1. F , H K M,

. E

$200,000; ,

.

Changes during

January15. T

3 .

Changes during

April13. D -

;

-

- ; -

-

,

; -

; -

-

, -

j .

July1. T C

.

Appendix A: Changes to Capiital Controls in

China, -


63/79


BROOKINGS

57

August29. T - -

-

$50,000 $200,000.

October1. T

-

.

November15. T

-

.

December1. T

.

Changes during

August1. T -

, -

. D -

j, SAFE ,

-

.

September29. W Q DI I, -

- .

September29. T QFII $800 $1

, - -

- - ,

September 1. N .

Changes during

February1. T -

$50,000 . R -

$50,000

.

March2. T S A F E- (SAFE) 2007 - -

C- 30

- 60

2006 . I , C-

- 30

-

60 2006

M 31, 2008.

August30. T SAFE

. SAFE -

- j $10

.

December9. T Q F I- I (QFII) $30 -

$10 .

Changes during

March7. R

.

July14. T

.


64/79


BROOKINGS

58

, RMB

C

. T

, -

.

, -

6 12 ;

-

.

Changes during

August 17. F , -, H K SAR M SAR RMB


65/79


BROOKINGS

59

T

-

. A -

.

AREAER IMFAnnualReportson

Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions;

HKMA H K M A; PBC P B C.

Changes during

January18. M - -

H K S A-

R (SAR). (AREAER 2004, 229,

A .)

January.P .(HKMA)

February25. P H K

SAR - ,

, RMBH

K ,

H K. (AREAER 2004, 229,

A .)

February 25. T PBC

,

. (PBC)

April1. T - -

$50,000

$20,000. (AREAER2004, 229, P -

.)

May 1. T

30 50 20 . (ARE-AER 2004, 229, E

)

May1. T

j -

. P,

. (AREAER 2004, 229,

E .)

August12.T PBC M

SAR. (PBC)

September8.M C

- -

- M SAR. (ARE-AER 2005, 235, A

.)

November1.T PBC

- -

. (PBC)

November 3. P MSAR -

Appendix B: Recent Developments Pertaining

to the International Use of the

Renminbi


66/79


BROOKINGS

60

February18.T PBC -

-

. (PBC)

April6. A -

. (PBC)

April30. T PBC P-A I

F C-

,

C . (PBC)

May 18. T . T

C F E S

. (PBC)

June15.T PBC - . (PBC)

June17. N - .

(PBC)

August2.T -

, -

. (AREAER2006, 299, E -

.)

August 2. D

50 (-

, 30 ) 80 (, 50

)

; -

$200,000 (,

$100,000). (AREAER2006, 300, E -

.)

; ; -

, H K

, M ;

-

M SAR. (AREAER2005,

235, A

.)

November17. T C D B - -

-

. (PBC)

December28. F , PBC -

. (PBC)

Changes during

January1. T

C 20,000

6,000 . (PBC)

January 1. P

$20,000 . T

$20,000, . (AREAER2006, 300, P

.)

January10. R M C - -

T

K S. (ARE-AER 2006, 300, A

.)

January15. T

3 . (AREAER2006, 300, P-

.)


67/79


BROOKINGS

61

October9. T A D B I F C

-

1 1.13 , -

, ,

C . (PBC)

November1. T PBC - H K -

-

. F,

PBC H

K .

December5. R-

F, G, I, L,

P, S, U S V-

. (AREAER2006, 300, A -

.)

December8. T PBC C C- B C D B -

-

. (PBC)

December13. T PBC - , -

. (PBC)

December15. R- B J. (AREAER2006, 300,

A .)

December18. T 13 21. (ARE-AER

, 272, E .)

December 28. T . (AREAER

2006, 300, E .)

August2. T PBC . (PBC)

August3. L : (1) I

, -

$5,000 $3,000; (2) -

,

$8,000 $5,000. (AREAER 2006, 300, P-

-

.)

August9. T PBC - ,

C C B C D-

B . (PBC)

August 15. I C F-

E S. T I

C B C C C-

B U.S.

.

August16.T S A F E-

(SAFE)

--

C

. T

-

,

. (PBC)

August30.T S C

-

. (PBC)

September 22. T SAFE .

(PBC)


68/79


BROOKINGS

62

October20. A

. (AREAER

2007, 272, E .)

December 11. C - . U W

O , ,

,

C ,

,

. F

C B R C

- C

C 1

. (AREAER 2007, 272,

P

.)

December29. T C F E - S

. (PBC)

Changes during January4. T S I O R(SHIBOR) . (PBC)

January 14. T PBC

H K, j .

January15.T - 21 22. (AREAER2007, 273, E-

.)

February1.T

$50,000 $20,000. R

-

; ,

Changes during

January4.O-- -

. (PBC)

January24.T PBC - . (PBC)

March 10. T C F E - S C M E

(CME) C -

CME -

(PBC).

April 15. O ,

, ,

-

, . (AREAER2007, 273,

P .)

April18.T PBC - -

. (PBC)

May1. R - $20,000

. (AREAER 2007, 272, P-

-

.)

July.T PBC -

. (PBC)

September1.T I I R Q F I I (QFII)

S I C ,

QFII S I

C . (AREAER2007, 273, P -

.).


69/79


BROOKINGS

63

,

. (PBC)

September 29. T PBC . (PBC)

Changes during

January18. T PBC . (PBC)

July 25. T C D F CP S .

August5.T

,

F E A

D; ,

. (AREAER2009, 539, E

.)

August20. T SAFE

Bj S, j

. (PBC)

August. T

$1 $800 (L D-

2011, 11).

December. T C B RC -

- --

(L D 2011,

10).

Changes during

January 7. T PBC

500

. (PBC)

;

-

-

SAFE. (AREAER2008, 321, P

.)

March20.A .

April9. T C F E S-

-

, -

. (PBC)

June7. T S G E

PBC -

. (PBC)

June26. R HK. (PBC)

July5.T Q D I I- (QDII) .

August12. D

-

. T

. (AREAER2008, 321, E-

.)

August17.R U.S. ,, , H K ,

. (PBC)

August20. T SAFE

. (PBC)

September3.T N A FM I I


70/79


BROOKINGS

64

Changes during

March24. T PBC N B R B

. T C

. (PBC)

June 22. T PBC, ,j N E

P R S C-B

P. T

- .

C--

. C 20 M

. P-

,

. (PBC)

July7. H H I L - -

H K,

.

July13. T B C (H K) -

. (PBC)

July19. F H KSAR ,

. I ,

-

.

,

C J 2009 (AREAER 2011,

631, N A C.)

March16. T PBC HKMA -- .

March17.T SAFE N D S- E D Q

F I 2009, -

. (PBC)

March18.T PBC

. (PBC)

April8. T S C -

S, G, S, Z,

D -

. (PBC)

May14andJune24. T PBC B E A H K S

B C (C) 4 -

3 , , -

- H K. (PBC)

May. T M C

j - , ,

-

(L D 2011, 10).

July. R - . (PBC)

September28.T M F C - -

- H K. (HKMA)

November28.T I M C HC., L., S. (PBC)

December14.T PBC -

M. (PBC)


71/79


BROOKINGS

65

November. I - - C

M U. (HKMA)

December8. T C -

-

365 67,359. (PBC)

December15. T R M I C- E .

(PBC)

December. T B C (H K) O- RMB B I, H K -

, .

Changes during

January 1. T SAFE -

C

: , -

, -

. -

, 18

.

C -. (AREAER2011, 632, E

.)

January 6. R 20 M

. P,

-

. B H K

. (AREAER

2011, 632, A - , HKMA.)

January.TB C - N

Y C.

August19. MD 200 ,

-

. (FinancialTimes)

August.T . (S C B)

October 1. N -

C

C-

M . L

(AREAER 2011, 632, N

.)

October1. P j : Bj,

G ( S), S (-

Q) J. E

j

SAFE

, , j.

I ,

SAFE. (ARE-AER 2011, 632, E

.)

October.A HKMA PBC 8

B C .

November22. T PBC C F-

E S R-

- . (PBC)

November 24. C 1 -

. (FinancialTimes)


72/79


BROOKINGS

66

October16. T C G & S E -

H K. (CNBC, O 16)

October17. T M C

-

.

November 10. T PBC A C B -

C. (PBC)

November.JP M A M - $1 -

Q L P P-

,

- .

December16.R M C

(FinancialTimes, D 18, 2011).

December25. C J - ,

, ,

.

February 14. T PBC RMB-FOREX -

. (PBC)

February. T Q L F P(QLFP) S.

ird quarter. R- -

(FinancialTimes, S

29, 2011).

June23.T PBC - C B

R F. (PBC)

August 23. C- -

02 renminbi monetary system prasad

Documents