1 california transportation fuel demand and production outlook & issues pat perez, manager...
TRANSCRIPT
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California Transportation Fuel Demand and Production Outlook
& Issues
Pat Perez, Manager ([email protected])Transportation Fuel Supply & Demand Office
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
6th California State Fleet Management Conference
October 31, 2001
Double Tree Hotel - Sacramento
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Presentation Topics
Consumption of Transportation FuelsProduction of Transportation FuelsMajor Challenges Facing the MarketState Policies and Programs
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Use of Petroleum Fuels Continues to Grow
Annual California On-road
Fuel Usage
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Year
Billion Gallons
Gasoline
Diesel
4
Usage Influenced by
Population growthConsumer taste Commuting patterns-- the location of
residences and work
5
Usage Influenced by
Technological change RegulationsThe economyPrice of fuel
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Consumption of Gasoline Is Expected to Increase
Increase in Vehicle Fuel Efficiency has leveled off
Growth in Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) will directly result in higher consumption
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Vehicle Fuel Efficiency
California Average Fleet Efficiency
0
5
10
15
20
25
Year 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Year
Miles Per Gallon
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Vehicle Miles Traveled
Vehicle Miles Traveled
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Year
Billion Miles
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Statewide Gasoline Fuel Demand
CEC Staff forecast 22% increase in consumption between 2000 and 2010
Growth from over 14 billion in 2001 to over 17 billion gallons annually
An increase of over 3 billion gallons
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Forecast of Gasoline
Projected Statewide Gasoline Demand
0
5
10
15
20
25
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Year
Billion Gallons -Gasoline
Gasoline
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Forecast of Demand for Diesel is Similar to Gasoline
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2020
Year
Billion Gallons
Diesel
Gasoline
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California Refinery Capacity is Located in Both the North
and South
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Currently
Refineries have little spare capacityRefineries report no large scale
expansion plans
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California Refinery Capacity Has Increased through:
Higher Capacity Utilization“De-bottlenecking” Existing
processes
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Growth in Supply Expected to Come From
A somewhat slowing, but continuing de-bottlenecking” of existing processes
Growth in imports of finished products and blending components
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Major Challenges Facing The California Transportation Fuel
Market
International Events and World Economy
Uncertainty surrounding the phase-out of MTBE and introduction of ethanol
Changing fuel specifications including Ultra-low Sulfur Diesel
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World Events and World Economy
Supply and Price of Oil will continue to react to International Events
A world-wide recovery or continued recession will directly impact the California transportation fuel market through the price of oil, impacts on the local economy, and price of gasoline
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Gasoline Price Volatility
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Uncertainty Surrounding the Phase-out of MTBE and Use
of Ethanol in Gasoline
Cost ImpactsSupply ConcernsEthanol Logistics
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California Ethanol Demand
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Past Present Future A Future B
Million Gallons per Year
Past: 1980s - 1990s maximum
Present: mid-2001Futures :
A- 6% in most (70%) CA gasoline by 2003
B- 6% in all CA gasoline by 2003
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State Policies, Programs and Activities
Reports (recent) Costs and Benefits of Biomass-to-
Ethanol Industry Full Fuel Cycle Efficiency Study MTBE Phase-out Quarterly Report USA Ethanol Survey
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State Policies, Programs and Activities
Reports (forthcoming) Joint CEC-ARB Study: Strategies to
Reduce Petroleum Dependency (AB 2076)
Strategic Fuel Reserve Feasibility Study (AB 2076)
Gulf-Coast to California Pipeline Feasibility Study (AB 2098)
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State Policies, Programs and Activities
Transportation Technology Programs Green Star Vehicle Program (Up to
$3,000 per vehicle) Alternative Fuel Vehicle Infrastructure
($2.5 million) Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Program
(Up to $750 with another $750 in matching dealer incentives)
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Conclusions
Consumption will grow more than our ability to produce petroleum products in-state
Imports of petroleum products and gasoline blending components will rise
Opportunities for alternative fuels will grow