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CONTENT

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Annual Precipitation : 501 billion m3

Annual Usable Surface Water : 98 billion m3

Annual Usable Ground Water : 14 billion m3

Annual Total Usable Water : 112 billion m3

Population of Turkey (2010) : 74 million

Annual Water Amount per person : ~1500 (m3/person-year)

WATER POTENTIAL IN TURKEYWATER POTENTIAL IN TURKEY

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Irrigation : 34 billion m3 (74%) Irrigation : 72 billion m3 (%64)

Domestic : 7 billion m3 (%15) Domestic : 18 billion m3 (%16)

Industry : 5 billion m3 (%11) Industry : 22 billion m3 (%20)

TOTAL : 46 billion m3 TOTAL : 112 billion m3

SECTORAL WATERSECTORAL WATER CONSUMPTION IN TURKEYCONSUMPTION IN TURKEY

2010 2010 2023 2023

WATER RELATED INSTITUTIONS IN TURKEY( CURRENT STRUCTURE )

PRIME MINISTRY MINISTRY OF DEVELOPMENT

MINISTRY OF MINISTRY OF FORESTRY AND FORESTRY AND WATER AFFAIRSWATER AFFAIRS

•DG Water Management•General Directorate of Combating Desertification and Erosion•General Directorate of Nature Conservation and National Parks

•GD of SHW•GD of Forestry•GD of Meteorology

MINISTRY OF MINISTRY OF FOOD, FOOD,

AGRICULTURE AGRICULTURE AND AND

LIVESTOCKLIVESTOCK

•General Directorate of Agriculture Reform•General Directorate of Fishery and Fishery Products

MMIINNIISTRY OF STRY OF ENERGY AND ENERGY AND

NATURAL NATURAL RESOURCESRESOURCES

General Directorate of

Mineral Research and

Exploration

MMIINNIISTRY OF STRY OF ENVENVIIRONMENT RONMENT

AND AND URBANURBANIIZATZATIION ON

• GD of Environment Management

• GD of Enviromental

Impact Assesment and

Planning• GD of Disaster

Affairs

•GD of Provincial Bank•GD of Natural Heritage

MINISTRY OF MINISTRY OF INTERNAL INTERNAL AFFAIRSAFFAIRS

•GD of Local Authorities

•GD of Provincial administration

MINISTRY OF MINISTRY OF HEALTHHEALTH

•Presidency of Sanitation Centre

•Presidency of Health Group

MINISTRY OF MINISTRY OF CULTURE AND CULTURE AND

TOURIZMTOURIZM

GD of Publicity

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MAIN DUTY

• Policy development for the protection, development and usage of water resources

• And to coordinate water management issues both at national and international scale.

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FIGHTING AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE

• Mitigation– Controlling, decreasing and absorption of

the GHGs

• Adaptation– The process of combatting against climate

change impacts…

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NEED FOR ADAPTATION

• Even in the case of stopping all GHG emissions, climate will continue to change.

• Poor people and poverty areas will mostly be affected.

• Climate change is a development problem.

To minimize economical, social and environmental effects and

risks

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HOW TO ADAPT?

CLCLIIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS MATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCESON WATER RESOURCES

PPROJECTROJECT

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25 River Basins

Covering 783.562 km²

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CLCLIIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER MATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCESRESOURCES

Started on 18th December 2013, the project aims to determine the impacts of climate change scenarios on surface and

underground water bodies to identify the adaptation activities, implementation region based on river

basin districts covering whole Turkey.

It is envisaged to be completed in July,2016.

CLCLIIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER MATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCESRESOURCES P PROJECTROJECT

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PROJECT STEPS

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Climate Projections

Hydrological Modelling

Hydraulic Modelling

Sectoral Vulnerability

Adaptation Measures

ClimaHydro Database

Projections for the period of 2015-2100

3 GCMs and Regional Climate Model

RCP4.5 mild scenario RCP8.5 severe

scenario

2 hydrological models are being run: SWAT WEAP

Projection period: 2015-2100 Reference period: 1971-2000

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HadGEM2SMPIIPSL

HecRas

http://iklim.ormansu.gov.tr/

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MPI Model_Mean Temperature MPI Model_Mean Temperature RF ve RCP8.5 Model Results (2015-2100)RF ve RCP8.5 Model Results (2015-2100)

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MPI Model_Total PrecipitationMPI Model_Total PrecipitationRF ve RCP8.5 Results (2015-2100)RF ve RCP8.5 Results (2015-2100)

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HadGEM2-ES Snow CoverHadGEM2-ES Snow CoverRF ve RCP8.5 Results (2015-2050)RF ve RCP8.5 Results (2015-2050)

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HadGEM2-ES Snow CoverHadGEM2-ES Snow CoverRF ve RCP8.5 Results (2050-2100)RF ve RCP8.5 Results (2050-2100)

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Projections for “Climate Indices”Indicator Name DefinitionFrost days Annual count when TN(daily minimum)<0ºCSummer days Annual count when TX(daily maximum)>25ºCCool nights Percentage of days when TN<10th percentileCool days Percentage of days when TX<10th percentileWarm nights Percentage of days when TN>90th percentileWarm days Percentage of days when TX>90th percentileSummer days Annual count when TX > 25ºC

Warm spell duration indicator Annual count of days with at least 6 consecutive days when TX>90th percentile

Cold spell duration indicator Annual count of days with at least 6 consecutive days when TN<10th percentile

Diurnal temperature range Monthly mean difference between TX and TNMax 5-day precipitation Monthly maximum consecutive 5-day precipitationMax 1-day precipitation Monthly maximum 1-day precipitationNumber of heavy precipitation days Annual count of days when PR >= 10mmNumber of very heavy precipitation days Annual count of days when PR >= 20mmNumber of very heavy precipitation days Annual count of days when PR >= 25mm

Consecutive dry days Maximum number of consecutive days with PR < 1mm

Consecutive wet days Maximum number of consecutive days with PR >= 1mm

•17 indices

•30 years mean

•Map display

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HadGEM2-ES FD0 Climate Index RF ve RCP8.5 Number of Frost Days_ 30 years

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HadGEM2-ES Model- CDD Climate Index RF ve RCP4.5 Number of Consecutive Dry Days_30 years

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Temperature Indices-I

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Frost Days

Cold Nights

Cold Days

Cold Air Wave

Temperature Indices-II

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Hot Nights Hot Days Heat

Wave

Summer Days-25

Summer Days-35

Precipitation Indices

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5 Days Max Precip.

1 Day Max

Precip.

Consecutive Wet

daysHeavy

Precip.DayVery Heavy Precip.Day

Consecutive Dry Days

Water Potential

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Total water potential

1 GCM

2 scenario

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Hydraulic Projections

HecRAS model

For this basin, 3 control cross sections

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Doğu Akdeniz River BasinCheck Point: DAN_037_ KE 21000 HadGEM2-ES_RCP4.5

%5

%50%95

Flow Continuity ProjectionsPeriod/Flowrate (m3/sec)

High Flowrate (5%)

Medium Flowrate (50%)

Low Flowrate (95%)

Reference 272 84 252015-2039 361 107 252040-2069 353 89 202070-2099 302 79 18RISK FOR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL

DISASTERS

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Flow Continuity CurvesObserved vs Model Comparison

Doğu Akdeniz River BasinCheck Point: DAN_037_ KE 21000

NO

OVERESTIMATION/

UNDERESTIMATION

OF THE RISKS

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Flow Continuity Projections At Estuary

RE-CONTROLLING THE

CONSISTENCY OF THE

PROJECTIONS

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Mean Flowrate at Estuary

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INTERMODEL COMPARISON

Sectoral Vulnerability

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Probable adaptation measures to be proposed or be obliged::

Flood Management Plans Drought Management PlansGrey water incentivesGood agricultural practicesCrop incentives

Soft Measures

Rainwater harvestingFlood protection measuresGradual decrease in distribution network losses

Hard Measures

Last Words..

• Climate Risk Management is vital in order to adapt.

• Best adaptation measures are based on reliable impact and sectoral vulnerability analysis.

• Climate change projections should be integrated at all levels of planning studies.

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Thank you for your attention

Ayse Y. COSGUNaycosgun@ormansu.gov.tr

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