Disasters and Climate Change Scenario

10361200

Rate of increase of human loss(1961‐1960 BS)

60007000

Rate of Increase of Property loss(1961‐2060 BS)

0 0 16

410

16221

02004006008001000

Hum

an loss in

 %

2639 Rate of Increase of Property loss, 2231000

20003000400050006000

rope

rty loss in

 %

‐80 0 ‐46‐2000

Axis Title

loss, 223

‐10000

P

HeavyHeavy precipitationsprecipitationsHeavyHeavy precipitationsprecipitations((rainrain or or snowsnow))

Storm (Storm (windswinds))River basin River basin floodingflooding

Hail&LightningHail&Lightning

Hot & cold Hot & cold spellsspells

DroughtsDroughts

Dust stormsDust storms

AvalanchesAvalanchesFlash floodsFlash floods

Mud & landslidesMud & landslides

Humanitarian Impacts due to Hydro‐climatic Disasters (Extreme Weather Impacts)( p )

10 Year Death & Property Loss

P t L

Human Lossy = 346.98x - 789.87

R2 0 6693

Death Property loss Linear (Property loss) Linear (Death)

Property Lossy = 75434x - 230976

R2 = 0.6064

R2 = 0.6693

4000

4500

700000

800000

2000

25003000

3500

th

400000

500000

600000

in th

ousa

nd

5001000

15002000

Dea

t

100000

200000

300000

pert

y lo

ss i

Rs

-1000

-5000 1961-70

1971-80

1981-90

1991-00

2001-10

2011-20

2021-30

2031-40

2041-50

2051-60

Y

-200000

-100000

0

Pro

Year

Source : Paudel, D. 2006

Climate Change Scenario( d d f NDR 2009)(adopted from NDR,2009)

• Nepal is the most vulnerable country to climate‐related disasters due to increase in intensity and frequency ofdisasters due to increase in intensity and frequency of weather hazards(abrupt climate change)‐IPCC, 2007;

• Warming trends(1971‐94)‐ranging from 0.06 to 0.12 deg cel; The hottest 5% of days and nights (1970‐1999);

• GCM projection: increase in temp over Nepal of 0.5‐2 deg cel by 2030 and rising to 3 0‐6 3 deg by 2090;cel by 2030 and rising to 3.0‐6.3 deg by 2090; 

• The hottest days to be increased up to 55% by 2060s and 70% by 2090s;

• The hottest nights to be increased up to 77% by 2060s and 93% by 2090s;

h h b• Precipitation changes in the monsoon: ‐14 to +40% by 2030s and increasing ‐52 to 135% by 2090s;

Climate Change • IPCC defined "climate change" as: "a change of climate which is 

attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods". 

k|ToIf jf ck|ToIf ?kn] dfgljo lqmofsnfksf] sf/0fn] kYjLsf] jfod08nsf tTjx?df cfPsf] kl/jt{gn] jiff}{ b]lvk[YjLsf jfo'd08nsf tTjx?df cfPsf kl/jtgn jiff blv /lxcfPsf] k|fs[lts xfjfkfgLdf ePsf] kl/jt{gnfO{ g} Cli t Ch elgG5Climate Change elgG5 .

• IPCC refers to any significant change in climatic elements (temp, pptn or wind) long‐term for an extended period( decades or longer)pptn or wind) long term for an extended period( decades or longer)

• Climate change refers to any significant change in measures of climate (such as temperature, precipitation, or wind) lasting for an extended period (decades or longer)extended period (decades or longer).

The Linkage: Climate Change and Climate DisastersDisasters

Anthropogenic (Global Warming)

Climate Change( Abrupt Climate Change)

Rise in LST and SST

Variation in Precipitation Ice Melting and SLR

Drought Cyclone and Storm SurgeFlood

Impacts on Livelihoods Assets (Loss of Property + Injury+ Death)

Disasters

Linkages between CC and DisastersLinkages between CC and Disasters

Disaster Or Risk = Hazard* X Vulnerability/(Capacity)

* ( )Hazard* : ( Extreme weather events) as a Result of CC

CC affects disaster risk by two ways: 1.through the likely increase in weather and climate hazards;weather and climate hazards;2. Increase in vulnerability of communities to natural hazards through Ecosystem Degradation‐reduction in water and food 

il bilit d h t li lih davailability and changes to livelihoods; 

Climate Change leads weathers

• Climate Variability: Unequal distribution of normal weather system(amount, timing and intensity) with time and space

• The intensity and frequency of rainfall varies with Space and Time• The intensity and frequency of rainfall varies with Space and Time

For example: annual ppt in Mahabharat region(2500‐3000mm) and cloudburst causes heavy rain suddenly like 500mm/day‐such cloudbursts‐

may occur at intervals of about 8‐10 years(NDR,2009)

• Extreme Rainfall Events

• More heat wavesMore heat waves

• Increased drought

• Increased frequency of high ppt in particular regions

• Increases in the number & intensity of strong cyclone

• Higher temp and melting glaciers

Extreme Rainfall Events(>300 mm per day)‐( p y)Source: Paudel Deepak, 2001)

Period AD Frequency(extreme rainfall)me rainfall)

1950‐1970 4

1971‐1980 19

1981‐1990 33

1991‐2000 20 (beyond 1997 adopted from 

NDR,2009)

CCA and DRR

CCA: The adjustment DRR: Action taken to reduceCCA: The adjustment in natural or human 

i

DRR: Action taken to reduce the risk of disasters and the adverse impacts of natural

systems in response to actual or expected 

adverse impacts of natural hazards through systematic 

efforts to analyze and climatic stimuli or their 

effects, which manage the causes of 

disasters, including through id f h d d

,moderated harm or exploits beneficial

avoidance of hazards and improved preparedness for adverse events(UNISDRexploits beneficial 

opportunities (IPCC)adverse events(UNISDR, 

2004)

Adaptation and DRR

Adaptation thro gh DRR HFA and CostAdaptation through DRR‐HFA and Cost‐Effectiveness : Preparing risk assessments(HFA 5) Protecting Ecosystems(HFA4) Improving5); Protecting Ecosystems(HFA4), Improving agricultural practices(HFA 4); Managing water resources(HFA4) Building settlements in saferesources(HFA4); Building settlements in safe 

zones; Developing early warning systems(HFA2); Improving insurance coveragesystems(HFA2); Improving insurance coverage 

and Developing social safety nets(HFA4)

Existing DRR

Response Operation

DisasterImpact

Recovery short and longLong termsPreparedness

Post Disaster

Pre Disaster

Development

Prevention

Mitigation

A Basic DMC, 

Prevention

Adaptation to Climate Disaster Risk

Response DisasterImpact Operation and Emergency RecoveryImpact

Development(Long terms recovery)

Based on Scientific Climate certainities sector-wiiseEWS

Preparedness

PES(Prevention & Mitigation)(Prevention & Mitigation)

Linking & diff CCA and DRRDi CDivergence ConvergenceDRR CCARelevant to all hazards Relevant to climate-

l t d h drelated hazards Origin and culture in humanitarian assistance

Origin and culture in scientific theory

CCA specialists : being involved from all sectors including DRR sectorincluding DRR sector

Most concerned with the present risks

Most concerned with the future

Existing climate variability is an entry point for CCA

Traditional/indigenous may be insufficient Examples whereTraditional/indigenous knowledge at community level is basis for resilience

…. may be insufficient for resilience against types and scales of risk yet to be

Examples where integration of scientific knowledge and traditional knowledge for DRR y

experienced. g

provides learning opportunities

Traditional focus on Traditional focus on Climatic disaster is the vulnerability reduction physical exposure product of climatic

extremes/variability(physical exposure) and vulnerability

Linking & diff CCA and DRR(based on Tearfund,2008)

Divergence ConvergenceDivergence ConvergenceDRR CCAPractical application at local level

Theoretical application at local level

Climate change adaptation gaininglevel at local level adaptation gaining experience through practical; local application

Full range of established and Limited range of tools None, except increasing gdeveloping tools1

gunder development

, p grecognition that more adaptation tools are needed

Funding stream ad hoc and insufficient

Funding streams sizeable and i i

DRR community engaging climate change adaptation f di h iincreasing funding mechanisms

Why are existing adopted measures unable i h d ?to withstand CDs? 

• the design is made without adequate consideration of climate change. The measures are taken as mal adaptation in DRRmeasures are taken as mal‐adaptation in DRR

• It is not considered future risk to CC .• the best practices of DRR are considered adaptive measures to reduce 

climatic impacts. However, due to rapid change in climatic variability and p , p g yits uncertainty, the natural and human systems are facing challenges to adapt climatic disasters. 

Hence it requires re shaping re designing of development practicesHence, it requires re‐shaping, re‐designing of development practices including social and economic practices to respond effectively to newly environmental changes especially climatic extremes. 

• For this, HFA guideline and sustainable development strategy is to some i dd b i i i ifi fextent appropriate to address  CC by incorporating  scientific program for 

CC monitoring. 

DRR in CCRM ProcessDRR in CCRM Process

• UNFCCC emphasizes capacities for coping with U CCC e p as es capac t es o cop g textreme weather events through Bali Action Plan’s(BAP)‐CoP13

• CoP 13 highlights Risk Management and Risk Reduction Strategies‐risk sharing and transfer 

h imechanism;• BAP focuses on DRR through vulnerability assessments capacity buildings and responseassessments, capacity buildings, and response strategies and integration of actions into sectoralnational planning;p g;

Contd…With consultation of ISDR system and UNFCCC parties, UNISDR has identified the three areas of action: 

1. Develop national coordination mechanisms to link DRR and Adaptation‐National Platform for DRR and the national climate change team;

2. Conduct a baseline assessment on the status of DRR and Adaptation efforts‐HFA implementation;

3. Prepare Adaptation Plans drawing on the Hyogo Framework‐NAPA Documentation

Contd..Contd..

• DRR sector is one of the major thematicDRR sector is one of the major thematic component in NAPA

• Agriculture and Food SecurityAgriculture and Food Security• Forest and Bio‐diversity• Water and Energy• Water and Energy• Climate Induced DisastersP bli H lth d• Public Health; and

• Human Settlements and Infrastructures

Institutional tools for DRR and CCA)

Silent Features of Proposed DM Act‐200(2063)Silent Features of Proposed DM Act‐200(2063) •Provision for National Council for Disaster 

Management(NCDM) to be chaired by HR Prime MinisterP l t t N ti l Di t M t A th it•Proposal to set up National Disaster Management Authority 

(NDMA) under the NCDM, to act as the focal point for disaster management functions in Nepal from formulation of 

appropriate strategies and plans to implementation andappropriate strategies and plans to implementation and supervision of disaster management activities

•Emphasizes on development of micro and macro hazard and vulnerability maps for disaster prone areas to inform decisionvulnerability maps for disaster prone areas to inform decision 

makers to address disaster risk reduction effectively

(NSDRM‐2009)( )Guided by Priority Actions of HFA(2005‐2015) and is based on TDRM 

approach;NSDRM have highlighted sectoral strategy(nine sectors): 

Agriculture and food security ;Agriculture and food security ; Health and Nutrition; 

Education; Shelter, infrastructures and physical planning; , p y p g;

Livelihoods and Protection;Water and Sanitation;  

Forest and Soil Conservation; Information,  Communication, Coordination and Management, and Logistic;

Tracing, Rescue, Damage Assessment and Needs  Analysis

• Institutional Framework• National Council for Disaster Management (NCDM)• National Disaster Management Authority(NDMA) and Committees as a Secreteriate of NCDM

• Regional Disaster Management Committee;Di t i t Di t M t C itt d S b• District Disaster Management Committee and Sub committees

• Local Disaster Management CommitteeLocal Disaster Management Committee• Community Based Organizations;• Disaster Management Authority at Local Levelg y

Conclusions and Recommendation: Policy Options

1 Enhance Scientific certainities1. Enhance Scientific certainities

• Develop scientific programes for CC monitoring‐ well‐equipped stations and longterm monitoring networlingequipped stations and longterm monitoring, networling and cooperation

• Promote and apply regional climate model rather thanPromote and apply regional climate model rather than Global climate model‐inoder to identify hot spots of CC;

2. Promote Mitigation Measuresg

Land use management for carbon sinks and reduced emissions

Payment for ecosystem services(PES)

Development of alternative technologiesp g

3. Adaptations measuresDRR and EWSDRR and EWSSupport and promote community‐led adaptationsPay more attention to sectors particularly waterPay more attention to sectors particularly water, agriculture, health, HM  disaster risks into NAPADeveleope IWRMp

4. Public AwarnessInformation to local community;Enagement of the media and academia;A fruitful facilitation of international policy diologe and cooperation