1 hard choices ahead climate change and energy env-m594 : 27 th february 2009 n.k. tovey ( 杜伟贤...
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*Hard Choices Ahead Climate Change and EnergyENV-M594: 27th February 2009N.K. Tovey () M.A, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv .. .., - Energy Science Director CRed ProjectHSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation
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How we can respond to the twin issues of Energy Security and Climate Change? Background:Hard Choices facing usRaising AwarenessTechnical OpportunitiesBackground:
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Oil: Comparison of Discoveries and Demand*We need to consider alternatives nowHow we can respond to the twin issues of Energy Security and Climate Change
Chart1
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8.60619311.5695
3.17119321.689
3.16719331.7356
2.6719341.7822
9.58119351.8288
11.0619361.8754
34.76119371.922
31.54719382.083
36.48219392.244
14.01119402.405
10.05619412.5012
3.14119422.5974
3.87819432.6936
7.82619442.7898
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6.83219463.13
51.27419473.374
56.20919483.618
56.69919493.862
20.89419504.10575
16.44719514.3495
27.55519524.59325
21.37919534.837
28.53719545.2453333333
25.07719555.6536666667
35.19719566.062
41.1219576.368
45.56219586.674
38.15219596.98
47.28519607.286
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55.42319639.203
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56.652196510.481
37.39196611.52725
33.683196712.5735
32.447196813.61975
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7.655200222.964
5.677200322.467
8.883200424.442
8.139200524.934
20067.6422006
20077.3922007
20086.6482008
20096.6462009
20105.9022010
20115.1582011
20125.1552012
20134.9052013
20144.162014
20153.6622015
20163.4122016
20173.1622017
20183.162018
20192.9092019
20202.82020
20212.72021
20222.62022
20232.52023
20242.42024
20252.32025
20262.22026
20272.12027
20281.6482028
20291.6462029
20301.6432030
20311.3942031
20321.1432032
20330.8942033
20340.892034
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20440.3672044
20450.3652045
20460.3622046
20470.3582047
20480.3562048
20490.3552049
20500.352050
actual discoveries
projected discoveries
demand
bilion barrels per annum
PEAKOIL2
7 5000 1 1 2 20000 (7(F8.31H))-19.58329.49649.07924449.1803278689
0.1185.8334.0519300205060actual discoveriesprojected discoveriesdemand26016
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PEAKOIL2
actual discoveries
projected discoveries
actual discoveries
projected discoveries
demand
bilion barrels per annum
-
*UK Gas Production and DemandImport Gap
-
*Per capita Carbon EmissionsHow does UK compare with other countries?Why do some countries emit more CO2 than others?What is the magnitude of the CO2 problem?*
-
**How carbon friendly is the Energy we use?Why is there such a difference between one country and another?
-
*Why has France a much lower carbon emission per capita than UK?Why has Germany and the Netherlands a higher factor?
How carbon friendly is the Energy we use?Carbon emission factors:Direct use of fuels: natural gas ~ 0.188 kg/kWh (varies slightly) oil (depending on grade) ~ 0.25 kg/kWh coal (depending on grade) ~ 0.30 kg/kWhElectricity (including losses in transmission): Coal Generation ~ 1000 g / kWH Oil Generation ~ 900 g / kWH Gas Generation ~ 400 g / kWh Nuclear Generation ~ 5 10 g / kWH
-
*How carbon friendly is the Energy we use?LuxembourgUK
-
*Carbon Emissions and Electricity*
-
r*Electricity Generation i n selected Countries
-
*Electricity Generation Carbon Emission Factors
Coal ~ 1.0 kg / kWh Oil ~ 0.9 kg/kWhGas (CCGT) ~ 0.4 kg/kWh Nuclear 0.01 ~ 0.03 kg/kWh
Current UK mix ~ 0.54 kg/kWh
-
*Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods*
Gas CCGT0 - 80% (curently 35%)Available now (but is now running out)~2p + but recent trends put figure much higher
Sheet1
potential contribution to Supply in 2020costs in 2020
Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently 40% and rising)available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)0 - 60% (France 80%) - (currently 20 - 25% and falling)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusionunavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"Traditional Coal falling rapidly - coal could supply 40 - 50% by 2020Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration2.5 - 3.5p
Sheet2
Sheet3
-
*Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable MethodsNuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2018.Carbon sequestration either by burying it or use methanolisation as a new transport fuel will not be available at scale required until mid 2020s*
Gas CCGT0 - 80% (curently 35%)Available now (but is now running out)~2p + but recent trends put figure much higher
Sheet1
potential contribution to Electricity Supply in 2020costs in 2020
Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently 40% and rising)available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)0 - 30% (France 80%) - (currently 20% and falling)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusionunavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"Traditional Coal falling rapidly - coal could supply 40 - 50% by 2020Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration2.5 - 3.5p
Sheet2
Sheet3
Sheet1
potential contribution to Electricity Supply in 2020costs in 2020
Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently 40% and rising)available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)0 - 60% (France 80%) - (currently 20 - 25% and falling)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusionunavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"Traditional Coal falling rapidly - coal could supply 40 - 50% by 2020Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration2.5 - 3.5p
Sheet2
Sheet3
Sheet1
potential contribution to Electricity Supply in 2020costs in 2020
Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently 40% and rising)available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)0 - 60% (France 80%) - (currently 20 - 25% and falling)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusionunavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"Traditional Coal ~40%- coal could supply 40 - 50% by 2020Available now: Not viable without Carbon Capture & Sequestration2.5 - 3.5p - but will EU - ETS carbon trading will affect this
Sheet2
Sheet3
Sheet1
potential contribution to Supply in 2020costs in 2020
Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently 40% and rising)available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)0 - 60% (France 80%) - (currently 20 - 25% and falling)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusionunavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"Traditional Coal falling rapidly - coal could supply 40 - 50% by 2020Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration2.5 - 3.5p
Sheet2
Sheet3
-
*Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
On Shore Wind
~25%
available now for commercial exploitation
~ 2p
Resource
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in 2020
-
**Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - RenewableScroby Sands had a Load factor of 25.8% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 60% needs of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich
On Shore Wind
~25%
available now for commercial exploitation
~ 2p
Resource
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in 2020
Off Shore Wind
25 - 50%
some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.
~2.5 - 3p
-
*Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at Itteringham Mill, Norfolk.
Rated capacity 5.5 kWOptions for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
On Shore Wind
~25%
available now for commercial exploitation
~ 2p
Off Shore Wind
25 - 50%
some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.
~2.5 - 3p
Hydro
5%
technically mature, but limited potential
2.5 - 3p
Resource
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in 2020
-
*Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 300 sq kmBut energy needed to make PV takes up to 8 years to pay back in UK.Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Photovoltaic
50%
available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly
10+ p
-
*Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - RenewableBut Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk would be needed to generated just over 5% of UK electricity needs. Transport Fuels: Biodiesel? Bioethanol? Compressed gas from methane from waste.
Photovoltaic
50%
available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly
10+ p
Energy Crops/ Biomass/Biogas
50% +
available, but research needed in some areas
2.5 - 4
-
*Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Photovoltaic
50%
available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly
10+ p
Energy Crops
100% +
available, but research needed in some areas
2.5 - 4
Wave/Tidal Stream
100% + ultimately
techology limited - major development unlikely before 2020 ~ 34%
4 - 8p
-
*Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Photovoltaic
50%
available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly
10+ p
Energy Crops
100% +
available, but research needed in some areas
2.5 - 4
Wave/Tidal Stream
100% + ultimately
techology limited - major development unlikely before 2020 ~ 34%
4 - 8p
-
*Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - RenewableOutput 78 000 GWh per annumSufficient for 13500 houses in OrkneySave 40000 tonnes of CO2
Wave/Tidal Stream
100% + ultimately
techology limited - major development unlikely before 2020 ~ 34%
4 - 8p
Photovoltaic
50%
available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly
10+ p
Energy Crops
100% +
available, but research needed in some areas
2.5 - 4
Tidal Barrages
10 - 20%
technology available but unlikely without Government intervention
not costed
Chart1
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