CRed Carbon Reduction 1 Keith Tovey ( ) .. M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Energy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation Centre School of Environmental Sciences, UEA. Rotary Club of Norwich Rotary Club of South Cambridge 20 th April 2009 The Twin Challenges of Climate Change and Energy Security Hard Choices Ahead Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal CRed Carbon Reduction 2 CRed Carbon Reduction 3 Increasing Occurrence of DroughtIncreasing Occurrence of Flood CRed Carbon Reduction 4 Increasing Occurrence of DroughtIncreasing Occurrence of Flood CRed Carbon Reduction 5 Is Global Warming Man Made? Not according to Channel 4: The Great Global Warming Swindle! Conveniently omits recent data post 1980 and 10 hottest years CRed Carbon Reduction 6 (Source: Prof. Bill McGuire, University College London) Norwich Consequence of ~ 1m rise Consequence of ~ 6m rise Norwich City would be playing water polo! CRed Carbon Reduction Temperature Rise ( o C) Temperature Rise ( o C) Temperature Rise ( o C) Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office actual predicted Is Global Warming man made? Prediction: Anthropogenic only Not a good match between 1920 and 1970 Prediction: Natural only good match until 1960 Prediction: Natural and Anthropogenic Generally a good match Predictions include: Greenhouse Gas emissions Sulphates and ozone Solar and volcanic activity CRed Carbon Reduction 8 Climate Change Arctic meltdown Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region Nasa satellite imagery Source: Nasa20% reduction in 24 years CRed Carbon Reduction 9 Options for Electricity Generation in Non-Renewable Methods Gas CCGT % (curently 35%) Available now (but is now running out) ~2p + but recent trends put figure much higher UK becomes net importer of gas in 2004 Langeland and Balzand Pipe Lines completed Price projected by Government for Gas generation in CRed Carbon Reduction 10 Options for Electricity Generation in Non-Renewable Methods Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after Gas CCGT % (curently 35%) Available now (but is now running out) ~2p + but recent trends put figure much higher Carbon sequestration either by burying it or use methanolisation as a new transport fuel will not be available at scale required until mid 2020s 10 CRed Carbon Reduction 11 Options for Electricity Generation in Renewable CRed Carbon Reduction 12 Options for Electricity Generation in Renewable Scroby Sands had a Load factor of 25.8% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 60% needs of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich CRed Carbon Reduction 13 Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at Itteringham Mill, Norfolk. Rated capacity 5.5 kW Options for Electricity Generation in Renewable CRed Carbon Reduction 14 Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 400 sq km - But energy needed to make PV takes up to 8 years to pay back in UK. Options for Electricity Generation in Renewable CRed Carbon Reduction 15 Options for Electricity Generation in Renewable But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk would be needed to generatejust over 5% of UK electricity needs. Transport Fuels: Biodiesel? Bioethanol? Compressed gas from methane from waste. CRed Carbon Reduction 16 Options for Electricity Generation in Renewable CRed Carbon Reduction 17 Options for Electricity Generation in Renewable CRed Carbon Reduction 18 Options for Electricity Generation in Renewable Output GWh per annum - Sufficient for houses in Orkney but there are only 4000 in Orkney. Controversy in bringing cables south Save tonnes of CO 2 CRed Carbon Reduction 19 Options for Electricity Generation in Renewable CRed Carbon Reduction Opted Out Coal: Stations can only run for hours more and must close by 2015 New Nuclear assumes completing 1 nuclear station each year beyond 2018 New Coal assumes completing 1 new coal station each year beyond 2018 There is a looming capacity shortfall Even with a full deployment of renewables. A 10% reduction in demand per house will see a rise of 7% in total demand - Increased population decreased household size Our Choices: They are difficult: Energy Security CRed Carbon Reduction 21 Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years. If our answer is NO Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ? Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks? If our answer is NO Do we want to return to using coal? then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>> Our Choices: They are difficult CRed Carbon Reduction 22 Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is YES By 2020 we will be dependent on GAS for around 70% of our heating and electricity imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> If not: We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises. CRed Carbon Reduction 23 How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO 2 looks like? 5 hot air balloons per person per year. On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO 2 each year. "Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little." Edmund Burke (1727 1797) CRed Carbon Reduction 24 Raising Awareness A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m. 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon. Standby on electrical appliances up to kWh a year balloons. (up to 15 a year) A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year ~ 500 balloons each year. Filling up with petrol (~38 for a full tank 40 litres) kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour? 1.6 miles At Gaoan No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost over 100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO 2. School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya CRed Carbon Reduction 25 Involve the local Community -The BroadSol Project Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004 Members of community agreed to purchase Solar Panels at same time. Significantly reduced costs CRed Carbon Reduction 26 House in Lerwick, Shetland Isles with Solar Panels - less than 15,000 people live north of this in UK! It is all very well for South East, but what about the North? House on Westray, Orkney exploiting passive solar energy from end of February CRed Carbon Reduction 27 Ways to Respond to the Challenge: Technical Solutions: Solar Photovoltaic Photovoltaic cells are still expensive, but integration of ideas is needed. A church not connected to grid e.g. Fishley, with services only once a week PV would be a sensible option. BUT English Heritage??????? Output depends on type but varies from ~70kWh to ~100kWh per square meter per year. Average house in Norwich consumes ~ 3700 kWh per year CRed Carbon Reduction 28 6 kW Proven Turbine powering a Heat Pump providing heating for Parish Kirk, Westray Horizontal Axis Mini Wind In 2007/8, mini wind turbines had a load factor of ~ 10.5% on average >>> annual output of approximately 5500 kWh/annum CRed Carbon Reduction 29 Throttle Valve Condenser Heat supplied to house Evaporator Heat extracted from outside Low Temperature Low Pressure High Temperature High Pressure Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions: The Heat Pump Compressor Any low grade source of heat may be used Coils buried in garden 1 1.5 m deep Bore holes Lakes/Rivers are ideal Air can be used but is not as good Best performance if the temperature source between outside source and inside sink is as small as possible. Heat pump delivers 3, 4, or even 5 times as much heat as electricity put in. CRed Carbon Reduction 30 Involve the local Community The residents on the island of Burray (Orkney) campaigned for a wind turbine. On average they are more than self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity. Many of the Islanders bought shares in the project and are now reaping the reward. Orkney is hoping to be a zero net emitter of carbon dioxide by 2015. CRed Carbon Reduction Which can spread the message Engage with Schools Dispel myths Use simple messages that people understand often monetary values mean more Think about our own actions. Tumble drying once a week amounts to 25 a year Can we car share when going to District Council? If four people travelled separately from Norwich they would emit 75kg CO 2 extra compared to travelling together and collectively save 30 in fuel. Energy Security issues will be just as important as Carbon reduction in the UK. Energy Security will increasingly affect us in next 10 years Global warming will increasingly affect our fellow citizens of the planet in the developing world in the next 10 years Addressing Energy Security by taking small steps now will also help with Global Warming Otherwise the Young will suffer during their life times. We in Rotary have the resources to work with the Young to combat the challenges facing us. Rotary is a Community CRed Carbon Reduction 32 Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades Energy Security will become increasingly important. Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Insecurity more likely in future. Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of energy It is as much about the individual s response to use of energy as any technical measures the Government may take. Wind (and possibly biomass) are the only real alternatives for renewable generation in next 5 10 years. Technical/Economic constraints prevent large scale development of photovoltaic, tidal and wave in this period Otherwise Nuclear??? Even if we are not convinced about Global Warming Energy Security issues will shortly start to affect us. Conclusions CRed Carbon Reduction 33 WEBSITEThis presentation is now available on WEB >follow Academic Resources Link Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person s room And Finally Are you up to the Challenge?: Will you make a pledge? Lao Tzu ( BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher "If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."