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1 Keith Tovey ( ) .. M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Energy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation Centre School of Environmental Sciences, UEA. Rotary Club of Norwich Norfolk Club 24 th March 2009 Climate Change: Energy Security: The Greatest Threats to Mankind? Hard Choices Ahead Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal Slide 2 2 Slide 3 3 Increasing Occurrence of DroughtIncreasing Occurrence of Flood Slide 4 4 Is Global Warming Man Made? Not according to Channel 4: The Great Global Warming Swindle! Conveniently omits recent data post 1980 and 10 hottest years Slide 5 5 Last Ice Age Humans are forcing the system in a new way. CO 2 increases are mainly due to fossil fuel burning. CO 2 has not been this high in more than half a million years. Last Interglacial Ice ages are not random. They are 'forced' (by earths orbital clock. changes in the sunlight received). 350 300 250 200 Carbon Dioxide (ppmv) 6005004003002001000 Thousands of Years Before Present [Adapted from Figure 6.3, IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4] 1800 today 5 Long Term Carbon Dioxide Record Slide 6 6 Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) actual predicted Is Global Warming man made? Prediction: Anthropogenic only Not a good match between 1920 and 1970 Predictions include: Greenhouse Gas emissions Sulphates and ozone Solar and volcanic activity 6 Slide 7 7 Is Global Warming man made? Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office Prediction: Natural only good match until 1960 Predictions include: Greenhouse Gas emissions Sulphates and ozone Solar and volcanic activity 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) actual predicted 7 Slide 8 8 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) actual predicted Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office Prediction: Natural and Anthropogenic Generally a good match Predictions include: Greenhouse Gas emissions Sulphates and ozone Solar and volcanic activity Is Global Warming man made? 8 Slide 9 9 (Source: Prof. Bill McGuire, University College London) Norwich Consequence of ~ 1m rise Consequence of ~ 6m rise Norwich City would be playing water polo! Slide 10 10 Climate Change Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003 Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region Nasa satellite imagery Source: Nasa www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html 20% reduction in 24 years 2003 1979 Slide 11 Comparison of Discoveries and Demand We need to consider alternatives now 11 Slide 12 12 UK Gas Production and Demand Import Gap Slide 13 13 Per capita Carbon Emissions UK How does UK compare with other countries? Why do some countries emit more CO 2 than others? What is the magnitude of the CO 2 problem? China 13 Slide 14 14 Carbon Emissions and Electricity 14 Slide 15 r 15 Electricity Generation i n selected Countries Slide 16 16 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Gas CCGT 0 - 80% (curently 35%) Available now (but is now running out) ~2p + but recent trends put figure much higher UK becomes net importer of gas in 2004 Langeland and Balzand Pipe Lines completed Price projected by Government for Gas generation in 2020 16 Slide 17 17 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2018. Gas CCGT 0 - 80% (curently 35%) Available now (but is now running out) ~2p + but recent trends put figure much higher Carbon sequestration either by burying it or use methanolisation as a new transport fuel will not be available at scale required until mid 2020s 17 Slide 18 18 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Slide 19 19 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Scroby Sands had a Load factor of 25.8% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 60% needs of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich Slide 20 20 Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at Itteringham Mill, Norfolk. Rated capacity 5.5 kW Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Slide 21 21 But energy needed to make PV takes up to 8 years to pay back energy used in construction in UK. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Slide 22 22 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk would be needed to generatejust over 5% of UK electricity needs. Transport Fuels: Biodiesel? Bioethanol? Compressed gas from methane from waste. Slide 23 23 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Slide 24 24 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Slide 25 25 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Output 78 000 GWh per annum - Sufficient for 13500 houses in Orkney but there are only 4000 in Orkney. Controversy in bringing cables south Save 40000 tonnes of CO 2 Slide 26 26 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Slide 27 Opted Out Coal: Stations can only run for 20 000 hours more and must close by 2015 New Nuclear assumes completing 1 nuclear station each year beyond 2018 New Coal assumes completing 1 new coal station each year beyond 2018 There is a looming capacity shortfall Even with a full deployment of renewables. A 10% reduction in demand per house will see a rise of 7% in total demand - Increased population decreased household size Our Choices: They are difficult: Energy Security Slide 28 28 Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years. If our answer is NO Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ? Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks? If our answer is NO Do we want to return to using coal? then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>> Our Choices: They are difficult Slide 29 29 Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is YES By 2020 we will be dependent on GAS for around 70% of our heating and electricity imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> If not: We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises. Slide 30 30 How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO 2 looks like? 5 hot air balloons per person per year. On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO 2 each year. "Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little." Edmund Burke (1727 1797) Slide 31 31 Raising Awareness A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m. 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon. Standby on electrical appliances up to 20 - 150+ kWh a year - 7500 balloons. (up to 15 a year) A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year ~ 500 balloons each year. Filling up with petrol (~38 for a full tank 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour? 1.6 miles At Gaoan No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost over 100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO 2. School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya Slide 32 32 The Behavioural Dimension Household size has little impact on electricity consumption. Consumption varies by up to a factor of 9 for any given household size. Allowing for Income still shows a range of 6 or more. Education/Awareness is important Slide 33 A Pathway to a Low Carbon Future 1. Awareness 3. Renewable Energy 4. Offsetting 2. Technical Solutions 33 Slide 34 34 Normal hot water circuit Solar Circuit Solar Pump Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions Solar Thermal Energy Slide 35 35 Involve the local Community -The BroadSol Project Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004 Members of community agreed to purchase Solar Panels at same time. Significantly reduced costs Slide 36 36 House in Lerwick, Shetland Isles with Solar Panels - less than 15,000 people live north of this in UK! It is all very well for South East, but what about the North? House on Westray, Orkney exploiting passive solar energy from end of February Slide 37 37 Ways to Respond to the Challenge: Technical Solutions: Solar Photovoltaic Photovoltaic cells are still expensive, but integration of ideas is needed. A church not connected to grid e.g. Fishley, with services only once a week PV would be a sensible option. BUT English Heritage??????? Output depends on type but varies from ~70kWh to ~100kWh per square meter per year. Average house in Norwich consumes ~ 3700 kWh per year Slide 38 38 6 kW Proven Turbine powering a Heat Pump providing heating for Parish Kirk, Westray Horizontal Axis Mini Wind In 2007/8, mini wind turbines had a load factor of ~ 10.5% on average >>> annual output of approximately 5500 kWh/annum Slide 39 39 Even better things are happening on the Island of Westray. The Parish Kirk, and Community Centre are heated by heat Pumps partly powered by Mini Wind Turbines Waste cooking oil from other islands is processed into biodiesel for farm and other vehicles. Ethanol used in process is obtained from fermentation of harvested sea weed Involve the local Community 39 Slide 40 40 Throttle Valve Condenser Heat supplied to house Evaporator Heat extracted from outside Low Temperature Low Pressure High Temperature High Pressure Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions: The Heat Pump Compressor Any low grade source of heat may be used Coils buried in garden 1 1.5 m deep Bore holes Lakes/Rivers are ideal Air can be used but is not as good Best performance if the temperature source between outside source and inside sink is as small as possible. Heat pump delivers 3, 4, or even 5 times as much heat as electricity put in. Slide 41 41 Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions The Heat Pump Images from RenEnergy Website Slide 42 42 Involve the local Community The residents on the island of Burray (Orkney) campaigned for a wind turbine. On average they are more than self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity. Many of the Islanders bought shares in the project and are now reaping the reward. Orkney is hoping to be a zero net emitter of carbon dioxide by 2015. 42 Slide 43 43 Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades Energy Security will become increasingly important. Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Insecurity more likely in future. Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of energy It is as much about the individual s response to use of energy as any technical measures the Government may take. Wind (and possibly biomass) are the only real alternatives for renewable generation in next 5 10 years. Technical/Economic constraints prevent large scale development of photovoltaic, tidal and wave in this period Otherwise Nuclear??? Even if we are not convinced about Global Warming Energy Security issues will shortly start to affect us. Conclusions Slide 44 44 WEBSITE www.cred-uk.org This presentation is now available on WEB >follow Academic Resources Link Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person s room And Finally Are you up to the Challenge?: Will you make a pledge? Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher "If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."