Park Lane Methodist Church

Sunday 14th May 2006

Climate Change and the Environment

Keith ToveyН.К.Тови М.А., д-р технических наук

Energy Science Director

CRed Project

Our Insatiable Appetite for Energy

POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES

14

• This series is looking at the Environment, Climate Change and Global Warming.

• Last week we saw that Climate Change is partly natural, but most effects in last 50 years have been from man’s activities – burning of fossil fuels for energy

• Today’s talk will review what resources and their potential for the next 50 years.

• Next Week we will go on to consider the hard choices facing us

• Then: what can we do about it?• what should we as Christians do about it?

Keith Tovey (杜伟贤 ) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICEHSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation: School of Environmental SciencesLay Chairman, Norwich East DeaneryCRed

Climate Change and our insatiable appetite for energy

Climate Change: Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003

• Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region– Nasa satellite

imagery

Source: Nasawww.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

•20% reduction in 24 years20031979

CRed

Climate Change and our insatiable appetite for energy

POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES

CURRENT AND PROJECTED USAGE

Projected Saturation Population in 2050 -- 10000 M consumption averages current UK value Requirement in 2050 = 50 TW 50 billion kW.

consumption reaches current USA value Requirement in 2050 = 100 TW

i.e. 10 times current demand

Range of forecasts 20 - 100 TW with a likely valuein range 30 - 50 TW (say 40 TW).

Country Energy Requirement

    Population Per Capita

World 12.0 TW 6000 M 2.0 kW

USA 3.0 TW 300 M 10.0 kW

Europe 2.0 TW 350 M 5.7 kW

UK 0.3 TW 60 M 5.0 kW

To discuss now• Is 10 billion a realistic assumption for population?• Or will Bird Flu solve our problems and halve that figure?• Does 4 kW per person seem reasonable - 80% of our

current level, 70% of European Level, 40% or US level• What exactly do we mean by renewable energy

resources?• Are any of the following resources renewable?

– Geothermal, Peat, Hydro??– Gas, Oil, Coal??

• To discuss later• Are there differences in our meaning of Renewable with

Solar, Wind, Biomass?• What is needed to bring our use of resources into harmony

with nature on God’s planet?

To discuss now• Is 10 billion a realistic assumption for population?• Or will Bird Flu solve our problems and halve that figure?• Does 4 kW per person seem reasonable - 80% of our

current level, 70% of European Level, 40% or US level• What exactly do we mean by renewable energy

resources?• Are any of the following resources renewable?

– Geothermal, Peat, Hydro??– Gas, Oil, Coal??

PROJECTED LIFESPAN OF RESOURCES1 trillion = 1 million millions

decades:- centuries: millennia:

projected average consumption of 40 TW annual consumption will be:- 350 trillion units

(kWh) at present it is 90 trillion units

Compare this to the Current World Proven Reserves:-

Oil Reserves:- 1500 trillion units Gas Reserves:- 1500 trillion units Uranium:- 1000 trillion units Coal Reserves:- 7000 trillion units Uranium (Fast Breeder):- 25000 trillion units Fusion (Deuterium):- 275 billion trillion units

D – D fusionCoal, Geothermal, D – T fusion, 232Th

235U, Tar sands,238U,

Oil ShalesOil, Gas,

"RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES"

Orders of magnitude only

Practically Achievable:-

10 - 50 million kW – Tidal

100 – 500 million kW - Geothermal; OTEC; Biomass; Wastes

1 – 5 billion kW - Hydro; Wind; Waves

10 – 50 billion kW – Solar

Projected demand is 40 billion kW

We will need all the renewables we can get

POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES

  Theoretical Practical Realised to date

 

  TW GW GW  

NON-SOLAR

       

Tidal 3 50 1 France, Russia, China

1 TW = 1 billion kW

1 GW = 1 million kW

4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES

 GWGWTW 

 Realised to date

PracticalTheoretical 

France, Russia, China

1503Tidal

    NON-SOLAR

Italy, Iceland, USA, New Zealand

1060+30Geothermal

1 TW = 1 billion kW

1 GW = 1 million kW

POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES

 GWGWTW 

 Realised to date

PracticalTheoretical 

France, Russia, China

1503Tidal

    NON-SOLAR

Italy, Iceland, USA, New Zealand

1060+30Geothermal

USA, Israel: third world

10*3000030000(on land)

    SOLAR Direct

Normal hot water circuit

Solar Circuit

Solar Pump

POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES - Solar

House in Lerwick, Shetland Isles

- less than 15,000 people live north of this in UK!

It is all very well for South East, but what about the North?

POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES

  Theoretical Practical Realised to date

 

  TW GW GW  

SOLAR Indirect

       

Wind 30 1000 50 and rising rapidly

USA, Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, Spain ~ 1500 MW in UK

1 TW = 1 billion kW

1 GW = 1 million kW

POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES

1 TW = 1 billion kW

1 GW = 1 million kW

POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES

 GWGWTW 

 Realised to date

PracticalTheoretical 

USA, Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, Spain ~ 800 MW in UK

20 and rising rapidly

100030Wind

    SOLAR Indirect

POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES

 GWGWTW 

 Realised to date

PracticalTheoretical 

USA, Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, Spain ~ 800 MW in UK

20 and rising rapidly

100030Wind

    SOLAR Indirect

UK, Norway, Japan

0.01303Waves

USA0.00130030OTEC

Pelamis: 750 kW device installed August 2004: Orkney

Operated for 10 days – was in dock for 9 months at Lyness

1 TW = 1 billion kW

1 GW = 1 million kW

POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES

  Theoretical Practical Realised to date

 

  TW GW GW  

Hydro 30+ 2000 400 USA, Brazil, Canada, Scandinavia, Switzerland, Malaysia etc.

Biomass/ Wastes

300 1000 10-100? Various

Brazil - Bioethanol

SOLAR Indirect

       

Transport Fuels:

• Biodiesel?

• Bioethanol?

Hydrogen????

The Star of the East

A vision of the future for Norwich

A vision for Dongtan Shanghai

3

country park

Approx 1km

International Airport

2

energy station

floating farmers market

river walk & quay

(proposed residential development)

turbine viewing & display gallery

4

R & D, factories of the future

5

(country park)interactive

learning centreworking environmental organisations

6

market

low carbon residential ring

Star of the East

Alsop Architects

View from Thorpe Station

The STAR will be 50% higher than the pylons which will be demolished

• To discuss

• Are there differences in our meaning of Renewable with Solar, Wind, Biomass?

• What is needed to bring our use of resources into harmony with nature on God’s planet?

WEBSITE www.cred-uk.org/

This presentation will be available from tomorrow at the above site: follow the links to Academic Resources

• We need to think carefully about our options

• Next week the Hard Choices facing us

• ROCs, TOCs, HOCs, LATs, ETS and all that

Conclusions

Are you up to the Challenge?: Will you make a pledge to combat

Climate Change?

Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher

"If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."

CRed