cred keith tovey m.a., phd, ceng, mice, cenv energy science director: low carbon innovation centre...
TRANSCRIPT
CRedKeith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv
Energy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation CentreSchool of Environmental Sciences, UEA
CIWEM - 8th August 2006
CRed The Community Carbon Reduction Project
Hard Choices Ahead: Renewable Energy Options
Climate ChangeArctic meltdown 1979 - 2003
Source: Nasa www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html
20% reduction in 24 years20031979
CRed
Summer ice coverage of Artic Polar Region
NASA satellite imagery
2/14
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods - figures taken from Energy Review 2002
Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently 40% and rising)
available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade
~ 2p + but recent trends put figure
much higher
nuclear fission (long term)
0 - 60% (France 80%) - (currently 20 - 25% and falling)
new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed
2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusion unavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"
Traditional Coal falling rapidly -
coal could supply 40 - 50% by 2020
Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration
2.5 - 3.5p - but will EU - ETS affect
this
potential contribution to
Electricity Supply in 2020
costs in 2020
Difficult Choices Ahead
CRed
Nuclear Generating Capacity
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
Inst
alle
d C
apac
ity (M
W)
Projection
Actual
Wholesale Price of Electricity
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1 13 25
(p p
er k
Wh)
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct
2003 2004 2005
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On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential
2.5 - 3p
4/14
Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly
10+ p
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential
2.5 - 3p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Energy Crops 20% ? available, but research needed in some areas
2.5 - 4
Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly
10+ p
Transport Fuels:
• Biodiesel?
• Bioethanol?
5/14
Wave/TidalStream
100% + techology limited - extensivedevelopment unlikely before 2020
4 - 8p
Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly
10+ p
Energy Crops 100% + available, but research needed insome areas
2.5 - 4
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential
2.5 - 3p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Tidal Barrages 10 - 20% technology available but unlikelywithout Government intervention
notcosted
Geothermal unlikely for electricity generationbefore 2050 if then
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Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project: Involving the Community
Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh
Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004
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Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass.
Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years.
If our answer is NO
Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ?
Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks?
If our answer is NO
Do we want to return to using coal? •then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly
•unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY
If our answer to coal is NO
Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>
Our Choices: They are difficult
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Our Choices: They are difficult
If our answer is YES
By 2020 • we will be dependent on GAS
for around 70% of our heating and electricity
imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria
Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>
If not:
We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.
Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field?
Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?
Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.
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How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?
5 hot air balloons per person per year.
Around 4 million in Norfolk
On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.
"Nobody made a greater mistake
than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little."
Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)
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Raising Awareness
• Computers do NOT switch off when using the soft “SHUT DOWN”. Typically they will waste 60 kg CO2 a year.
• A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m.
• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon.
• Standby on electrical appliances 60+ kWh a year - 3000 balloons.
• A Mobile Phone charger: > 20 kWh per year ~ 1000 balloons each year.
• Filling up with petrol (~£38 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon)
How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour?
1.6 miles11/14
Hard ChoicesWhat can we as individuals do?What can you do collectively as an Organisation?
Visit the CRed WEB Site
Sign a pledge to• combat global warming• help secure a sustainable environment for our children• help reduce the adverse impacts of Global Warming• help secure energy supplies for the future
saving energy
Adopting technical solutionsPromoting Awareness
Promoting appropriate renewable energy
www.cred-uk.org
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Today we shared a car from Norwich – saved 32.95 kgCould have used a washing machine 64 timesA low energy light bulb on continuously for 200 days
• Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades
• Energy Security will become increasingly important. Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Insecurity more likely in future.
• Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of energy
It is as much about the individual’s response to use of energy as any technical measures the Government may take.
• Wind (and possibly biomass) are the only real alternatives for renewable generation in next 5 – 10 years.
Otherwise Nuclear ??? (but accessible uranium is limited)
• Even if we are not convinced about Global Warming – Energy Security issues will shortly start to affect us. >>
Conclusions
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WEBSITE www.cred-uk.org
This presentation will be available from tomorrow: follow Academic Resources link
• Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person’s room
Conclusions
Are you up to the Challenge?: Will you make a pledge?
Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher
"If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."