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MAINE AND OZONE TRANSPORT REGION- OZONE NAAQS ISSUES
- 2009 OZONE SEASON SUMMARY - OZONE AND PRECURSOR (PAMS) TRENDS
February 25, 2010 MEDEP Monitoring Meeting
Tom Downs, CCMChief Meteorologist
Maine DEP-BAQ17 State House Station
Augusta, ME 04333-0017
TEL: 207-287-7026E-MAIL: [email protected]
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OZONE STANDARDS
• 1997 8-hour NAAQS– 84 ppb Primary = secondary– Entire state is designated ATTAINMENT with SIP maintenance
plans in place– Current SIP designations are only for the 1997 NAAQS
• 2008 8-hour NAAQS– 75 ppb Primary = secondary– EPA delayed designations until March 12, 2011 because of the
ozone NAAQS reconsideration.• If, as a result of the reconsideration, EPA issues different ozone
standards in 2010, the new ozone standards would replace the 2008 ozone NAAQS and implementation requirements associated with the replaced 2008 ozone NAAQS, including area designations, would no longer apply. Instead, EPA would begin a new process to designate areas for the 2010 ozone NAAQS on an accelerated schedule.
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OZONE NAAQS RECONSIDERATION
• January 19, 2010 OZONE NAAQS proposal– primary 8-hour 60-70 ppb (new data handling conventions)– Secondary 7-15 ppm-hrs seasonal cumulative W126 index
• August 2010 Final
• January 2011 State designation recommendations – (Maine will use 2008-10 data)
• July 2010 Final EPA designations
• August 2011 designations become effective
• August 2013 Infrastructure SIPS due? (3-yrs after promulgation)
• December 2013 SIPS are due for nonattainment areas
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1/19/10 Primary Ozone NAAQS Reconsideration Proposal
Indicator – 8-hour Ozone averaging period Level – 0.06 – 0.07 ppm Form – annual 4th highest daily maximum 8-hour
average concentration averaged over three years. Data handling conventions (ppm)
1-hour – truncate after the third decimal place
8-hour – keep all digits 6-8 hours used dividing by number of
hours 1-5 hrs used with missing data
substitution scheme. Use lowest Ozone concentration
during the season for that hour Outside of ozone season use ½
MDL Design Value – round to three decimal
places Valid if data recovery rates for each
ozone season is at least 75% or the Design Value is greater than the standard
Use all data available inside or outside of the Ozone Season.
Primary OZONE NAAQS3/27/08 Primary Ozone NAAQS
Indicator – 8-hour Ozone averaging period Level – 0.075 ppm Form – annual 4th highest daily maximum
8-hour average concentration averaged over three years
Data handling conventions (ppm) 1-hour – truncate after the third
decimal place 8-hour – truncate after the third
decimal place 6-8 hours used dividing by
number of hours 1-5 hours no calculation made
Design Value – truncate after the third decimal place
Valid if 3-yr data recovery rate is at least 90% for the ozone seasons or the Design Value is greater than the standard
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3/27/08 Secondary Ozone NAAQS = Primary Ozone Standard
1/19/10 Secondary Ozone NAAQS Reconsideration Proposal Indicator – maximum 3-month 8am -8pm cumulative W126 index Level – 7 – 15 ppm-hrs Form – three year average of the annual maximum consecutive 3-month sum of adjusted
monthly W126 index values Data handling convention (ppm-hrs)
Hourly W126 – keep all digits Monthly W126 – keep all digits
Valid if the daylight hourly data recovery rate is at least 75% If the daylight hourly data recovery rate is more than 75% or less than 100%
then adjust the monthly W126 by the ratio of the number of possible reporting hours to the number of reported hourly concentrations.
Design Value – rounded to a whole number Valid if the daylight hourly data recovery rate is at least 75% for each month in the
required ozone monitoring season If one or more month does not have 75% data recovery rate then the design value is still
valid if the following substitution scheme results in a design value greater than the secondary standard.
Substitute the lowest hourly daylight ozone concentration in the required ozone season or ½ of the method detection limit of the monitor , whichever is higher, within each month to make the month 75% complete
Adjust for the remaining missing data using the ratio mentioned above.
Secondary OZONE NAAQS
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To determine the W126 index, the sigmoidal weighting value at a specific concentration is multiplied by the concentration and then summed over all concentrations. The sigmoidal weighting function is of the form:
• where: M and A are arbitrary positive constants• wi = weighting factor for concentration ci• ci = concentration i (in ppb)• The arbitrary positive constants M and A are 4403 and 126 ppm-1, respectively.
Their values were subjectively determined to develop a weighting function that (1) focused on hourly average concentrations as low as 0.04 ppm, (2) had an inflection point near 0.065 ppm, and (3) had an equal weighting of 1 for hourly average concentrations at approximately 0.10 ppm and above.
References• Lefohn A.S. and Runeckles V.C. (1987) Establishing a standard to protect
vegetation - ozone exposure/dose considerations. Atmos. Environ. 21:561-568.• Lefohn A. S., Lawrence J. A. and Kohut R. J. (1988) A comparison of indices
that describe the relationship between exposure to ozone and reduction in the yield of agricultural crops. Atmospheric Environment. 22:1229-1240.
W126 INDEX
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W126 INDEX weighting function (Wi) vs. 1-Hour Ozone Concentration Scatter Plot
0.0
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1-HOUR OZONE CONCENTRATION (ppm)
Wi
wei
gh
tin
g f
un
cti
on
Created by Tom Downs, MEDEP-BAQ 2/27/2007
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2009 Ozone Season
• Few ozone events for the 2nd season in a row– Only 3 exceedance days for the 75 ppb
standard in Maine and 2 exceedances of the old 84 ppb standard
– Meteorological conditions not conducive for ozone during June and July
– Economy and control strategies (NOx SIP call fully implemented) lowering ozone precursor emissions
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2003-2009 MAINE DAILY PEAK 8-HOUR OZONE CONCENTRATIONS
0.000
0.005
0.010
0.015
0.020
0.025
0.030
0.035
0.040
0.045
0.050
0.055
0.060
0.065
0.070
0.075
0.080
0.085
0.090
0.095
0.100
0.105
0.110
0.115
1/1
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DATE
8-h
ou
r O
zon
e C
on
cen
trat
ion
(p
pm
)
.
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Created by Tom Downs, Maine DEP-BAQ - 2/20/2010
Current ozone monitoring season
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OZONE TRANSPORT REGION (OTR) DAILY PEAK 8-HOUR OZONE CONCENTRATIONS DURING 2003-09 OZONE SEASONS
0.0000.0050.0100.0150.0200.0250.0300.0350.0400.0450.0500.0550.0600.0650.0700.0750.0800.0850.0900.0950.1000.1050.1100.1150.1200.1250.1300.135
4/1
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4/2
9
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6/1
0
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8/1
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0
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OZ
ON
E C
ON
CE
NT
RA
TIO
N (
PP
M)
.
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Created by Tom Downs, Maine DEP-BAQ - 11/2/2009
2009 OTR data is preliminary
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June-August Surface Temperature and Precipitation Anomaly Patterns
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Below Normal Temperature – less conducive to ozone formation
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Above Normal Precipitation – less conducive to ozone formation
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June-August 850mb Heights and Temperature Anomaly Patterns
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2005-2009 June-August 850mb Height Anomalies
NCEP/NCAR REANALYSIS
Below Normal Heights – more conducive to cloud
formation thus less conducive to ozone
formation
Jun-Aug 2005
Jun-Aug 2008 Jun-Aug 2009
Jun-Aug 2007Jun-Aug 2006
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2005-2009 June-August 850mb Temperature Anomalies
NCEP/NCAR REANALYSIS
Below Normal Temperature – less conducive to ozone formation and
transport
Jun-Aug 2005
Jun-Aug 2008 Jun-Aug 2009
Jun-Aug 2007Jun-Aug 2006
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Ozone Trends in Maine and the Ozone Transport Region (OTR)
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MAINE 1997-09 OZONE SEASON 8-HR OZONE MODERATE AQI DAY TRENDS FOR THE CURRENT AND POTENTIAL FUTURE 8-HOUR OZONE NAAQS
70
105
87
61
71 72 73
54
68
61 61 59
4848
72
52
42
5652
44
31
3944
4138
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0
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120
1997
1998
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2008
2009
# 8-
hr
MO
DE
RA
TE
AQ
I O
ZO
NE
DA
YS
.
>.054 ppm >.059 ppm
Created by Tom Downs, Maine DEP-BAQ -2/20/2010
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MAINE 1980-09 OZONE SEASON 8-HR OZONE EXCEEDANCE DAY TRENDS FOR THE CURRENT AND POTENTIAL FUTURE 8-HOUR OZONE NAAQS
23
37
26
13
3231
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13
23
18 18
10
5
2221
5
24
28
14
11
14
11
14
43
16
0
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25
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40
1997
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2003
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2005
2006
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2008
2009
# 8-
hr
OZ
ON
E E
XC
EE
DA
NC
E D
AY
S
>.070 ppm >.075 ppm
Created by Tom Downs, Maine DEP-BAQ -2/20/2010
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OTR High Ozone Day TRENDS (2009 preliminary data (thru September 30))
52
7871
37
54
67
3430
48
36
47
26
11
84
106 105
66
8792
60 57
88
66
80
57
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0.153
0.1310.135 0.133 0.133
0.1370.130
0.123 0.121
0.1300.125
0.1120.109
0
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1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
# D
ays
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PP
M
# days > 84 ppb # days > 75 ppb MAX 8-hr
Created by Tom Downs, Maine DEP-BAQ - 10/1/2009
212009 data is preliminary thru September 30
1997-2009 Trends of 8-hourOzone days > 75 ppb (Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups AQI)
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1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
#d
ays
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NY-NJ-PA
DE-MD-DC-VAOTC
NESCAUM
OTC
Created by Tom Downs, Maine DEP-BAQ -10/1/2009
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Future Attainment/Nonattainment areas in Maine and the OTR?
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20052005
20072007
20062006
20092009
20082008
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Only 2 sites over the 1997
standard
2005-07 DV
2006-08 DV
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Site 2006-08 2007-09 2007 2008 2009
Cadillac Mt 80 78 86 74 74McFarland Hill 72 73 83 64 73Port Clyde 71 70 82 61 69
Kennebunkport 76 74 78 73 72Cape Elizabeth 74 74 83 69 70Durham *** 72 81 70 67West Buxton 70 68 81 61 62Bowdoinham *** *** *** 65 63Portland *** *** *** 61 59
Gardiner 70 71 79 68 66Jonesport 64 65 76 58 61Holden 66 64 74 62 57North Lovell 62 63 74 59 57Howland 62 59 64 58 55Ashland 60 58 64 56 55Sipayak 56 56 56 56 57Micmac 57 55 57 54 54Shapleigh *** *** *** *** 63Penobscot *** *** 68 *** ***
8-hr O3 4th HIGH (ppb)
SOUTHWEST COAST
OTHER AREAS
MIDCOAST REGION
DESIGN VALUES (ppb)
Analysis for the current 75 ppb OZONE NAAQS
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Analysis for the proposed OZONE NAAQS
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NOXY,VOC AND ECONOMIC TRENDS
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The Coincident Economic Activity Index includes four indicators: nonfarm payroll employment, the unemployment rate, average hours worked in manufacturing and wages and salaries. The trend for each state's index is set to match the trend for gross state product.
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PAMS SITES2009 PAMS SITES IN THE
OZONE TRANSPORT REGION
Hourly VOC Data Available
No hourly VOC data available as of Feb 24, 2010
Only 3-hr VOC data available
Only 24-hr VOC data available
OTR-CORE
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OTC-CORE VOC TRENDS
New York City 1997-2009 VOC TREND PLOTS
0
25
50
75
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125
150
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225
JJA1997
JJA1998
JJA1999
JJA2000
JJA2001
JJA2002
JJA2003
JJA2004
JJA2005
JJA2006
JJA2007
JJA2008
JJA2009
pp
bc
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µg
/m³
NYC-Pfizer Lab PAMHC (ppbc) NYC-Pfizer Lab TNMOC (ppbc) NYC-Pfizer Lab BENZENE (µg/m³)
NYC-Pfizer Lab TOLUENE (µg/m³) NYC-Pfizer Lab XYLENES (µg/m³)
Created by Tom Downs, Maine DEP-BAQ - 2/24/2010
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RURAL DOWNWIND HIGH ELEVATION VOC TRENDS
Cadillac Mt, ME 1997-2008 VOC TREND PLOTS
0
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JJA1997
JJA1998
JJA1999
JJA2000
JJA2001
JJA2002
JJA2003
JJA2004
JJA2005
JJA2006
JJA2007
JJA2008
JJA2009
pp
bc
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µg
/m³
PAMHC (ppbc) TNMOC (ppbc) BENZENE (µg/m³) TOLUENE (µg/m³) XYLENES (µg/m³)
Created by Tom Downs, Maine DEP-BAQ - 2/23/2010
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1997-2009 Average Monthly NOx Concentrations in the NY-NJ-CT 8-hr Ozone Nonattainment Area
0
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CO
NC
EN
TR
AT
ION
(P
PB
)
Westport NOx New Haven NOx Leonia NOx Rutgers U NOxNYC-200th St & Southern Blvd NOx NYC-IS52 NOx Pfizer Lab NOx Eisenhower Park NOxNYC-PS59 NOx NYC-Queens NOx
MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER
Created by Tom Downs, Maine DEP-BAQ - 2/24/2010
OTC-CORE NOx TRENDS
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1997-2009 Average Monthly NOxy Concentrations in Maine Ozone Maintenance Areas
0.0
0.5
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CO
NC
EN
TR
AT
ION
(P
PB
)
Cape Elizabeth-NOy NOy Bar Harbor (Cadillac Mt Summit) NOx Bar Harbor (Cadillac Mt Summit) NOy
MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER
Created by Tom Downs, Maine DEP-BAQ - 2/24/2010
RURAL DOWNWIND COASTAL and HIGH ELEVATION NOxy TRENDS
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Summary
• Meteorological Conditions were not conducive to ozone formation during the 2009 summer months– Conditions were also not conducive in 2008
• Only two monitoring sites in the OTR are violating the 1997 (84 ppb) Ozone NAAQS (using preliminary using preliminary datadata)– OTC core, Western NY/PA and Northern New England high
elevations have preliminary 07-09 DV’s > 75 ppb– All states have preliminary 07-09 DV’s > 70 ppb
• Starting with two “clean” years for the 2008-10 DESIGN VALUES to be used for the next round of attainment/nonattainment designation recommendations.
• Downward precursor emission and economic trends are also factoring into lower ozone concentrations
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N/A-MAINTENANCE AREA SITES
• Cadillac Mt. Summit (PAMS)
•Kennebunkport
•Cape Elizabeth (PAMS)
•McFarland Hill
•Durham
•Gardiner
•Port Clyde
•West Buxton
•Shapleigh
•Bowdoinham (evaluate after 2010)
OZONE MAPPING & RURAL SITES
•Jonesport
•Holden
•North Lovell
EPA CASTNET SITES
•Howland
•Ashland
TRIBAL SITES
•Indian Island (Penobscot Nation)
•Presque Isle (MicMac)
•Sipayik (Passamaquoddy)
HEALTH STUDY SITE
•Portland
High elevation site for transport study and
Secondary NAAQS?
Best Downwind of Portland coastal site?