1 tracking critical-mass outbreaks in social contagions (fa9550-15-1-00036 def) pi: michael macy...
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Tracking Critical-Mass Outbreaks in Social Contagions
(FA9550-15-1-00036 DEF)
PI: Michael Macy (Cornell University; Sociology)
Co-PI: Clay Fink (JHU-APL)
Co-PI: Vladimir Barash (Graphika)
Co-PI: John Kelly (Graphika)
Researchers: Aurora Schmidt (JHU-APL)
Chris Cameron (Cornell)
AFOSR Program Review: Trust & Influence May 11-15, 2015, USAF Academy, CO.
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Motivation
• Social contagions - ideas or patterns of behavior that
spread through social networks - contribute to the spread
of social movements and mass mobilization
• Is it possible to detect and anticipate the appearance of
such movements from observational data?
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Approach
• Social media gives us a view into large-scale online
social activity; it has also played a role in actual offline
events, including social movements
• We will evaluate models of social contagions (Barash et
al. 2011, Centola & Macy, 2007) using social media data
to characterize online content and activity related to
social movements with the goal of anticipating the scope
of their impact
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Outcomes
• Identify social movements from online data; for any
identified social movement, anticipate viral outbreaks
within the movement’s online component; gain a better
understanding of why some movements succeed and
persist and others do not
• User these same methods to measure the effectiveness
of online messaging campaigns by the USG or
associated NGOs in regions of interest
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Grant Progress
• Before Grant: – Critical mass model of social contagion– Theoretical results– Collections of online activity (Twitter) from Russia,
Turkey, Egypt, and Nigeria • First Six Months (11/15/14 – 5/14/15):
– Processed datasets from Twitter for analysis (Nigeria and Russia)
– Evaluating theoretical measures for characterizing social contagions on these datasets
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Social Contagions
• Social contagions are social phenomena that can and
do spread via social networks
• Some social contagions require social reinforcement.
When a contagion (social or otherwise) requires social
reinforcement, we say the contagion is “complex”
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Complex Contagions
• A person might see how their friends react to an idea or
product before forming her own opinion
• Higher risk behaviors (expensive purchases, illegal
protesting) become more likely with social reinforcement
from multiple peers (1 less convincing than 5)
• Normative contagions depend on social approval
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Theoretical Model
• Complex contagions model higher-risk behaviors like
social movement participation…
• … but spread slowly unless and until they reach critical
mass
• Critical mass is identified by a spike in the contagion
growth curve and a drop in the network overlap between
current + previous adopters as the contagion spreads
from an initial dense core to the wider network
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Model Results
(Sm
all W
orld
)
• Behavior of PRWa
infle
ctio
n
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Empirical Results
• Looked at tweets collected from Nigeria containing
hashtags that were new on or after 1/15/14 and 11/15/14
• We analyzed these hashtags for signs of complex
contagion and critical mass
• Two case studies: #mh370 and #bringbackourgirls
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Empirical Results
• We compared the daily tweet volume of each tag with daily counts of unique news stores about each topic
• #mh370 represented a major news story and the tweets track the news cycle
• In contrast, tweets related to the Chibok kidnapping lead the news cycle by well over a week
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Empirical Results
• Testing for spread through social network: calculate fraction of innovators (adopting users with no adopter neighbors) over time
• #mh370 has a consistently large fraction of innovators• #bringbackourgirls has a consistently small fraction of innovators,
even during adoption peak
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Empirical Results
• Testing for multiple reinforcements (complex contagion) we look at the adoption thresholds (k) for the population of users who adopted the tag
• The number of users adopting with two or more adopting neighbors is much greater for #bringbackourgirls than for #mh370
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Empirical Results
• Testing for dense contagion core: we looked at the first m users that adopted a tag and compared the resulting network to networks associated with m randomly selected adopters as an indicator of the density of the network of originating users
• #bringbackourgirls core is much more dense than #mh370
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Empirical Results
• Overlap: at the time each user adopts, the density of the ties between their friends that have already adopted
• We calculate the mean overlap of all adopters on each day• A drop in the density of ties between adopting users as the
number of adoptions is increasing may be evidence of critical mass; this is seen for #bringbackourgirls but not #mh370
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Next Steps• Extend the measures we have discussed to all Nigerian
hashtags to test their effectiveness in identifying complex contagions
• Extend work to Russian and Egyptian datasets– For Egypt, we have 700 expert-identified Arab Spring related
hashtags to examine; overall we have 1,200 hashtags used more than 500 times and 4,000 hashtags used more than 100 times
• Investigate language-related signals associated with social contagions
• Begin integration of this work into an a prototype tool for online detection of social contagions
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Project SummaryResearch Objectives:
•Use critical mass model of social
contagion to predict behavior of
social movements from online data
Key Findings:
•Preliminary findings suggest validity
of critical mass model; measures
show important differences between
non-contagions and social
contagions
Technical Approach:
•Use theory-driven measures of social media
activity to characterize content related to
growing social movements
•Base initial work on post hoc analysis
collections of Twitter data from multiple
regions
Benefits to the wider academic or DoD community:
•Identifying/anticipating social movements
from online signatures
•Measures of effectiveness for online
messaging campaigns
Project Start Date: 11/15/2014 Project End Date: 11/14/2017
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Publications, Awards, Patents, or Transitions Attributed to the Grant
• N/A
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Additional Slides
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Motivation“Transformative social movements that go viral,
taking experts by surprise”
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Empirical Results
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Theoretical Background
• Formal model: networked population of N agents with s << N agents, each agent adopts contagion iff at least a of their neighbors has adopted. No un-adoptions.
• When an agent adopts after more than two of their neighbors have adopted, we call this a complex contagion; a simple contagion occurs when an agent adopts after only one neighbor has adopted
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Theoretical Background• Previous Work: Centola and Macy 2007
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Theoretical Results
• Inflection point of PRWa is a critical mass point
– Once inflection point is reached, each additional
infected node further increases PRWa, creating a
positive feedback effect
– At this point, a complex contagion starts to behave
more like a simple contagion, allowing the infection to
spread across the network