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J. o Marine Env. Eng., Vo. 9, pp. 145173 2010 Od Cit Pbishig, Ic.Reprits vibe direct ro the pbisher Pbished b icese der the OCP Sciece iprit,Photocopig peritted b icese o eber o the Od Cit Pbishig Grop

Safety and Environmental Risk and Reliability ModelingProcess for Sustainable Inland Water TransportationSystem

O. Sulaiman1, * ab Saman abd Kader2, a.H. SaHaruddin3, W.b. Wan niK4 andK.b. SamO5

1,3,4,5uvsty mys Tgg, 21030, K Tgg, Tgg, mys

2uvsty Tchoogy mys, Sk 81310, Joho, mys

The vast resources o the worlds oceans needto be ully utilized to beneit human activi-ties in a sustainable manner. The maritimeindustry has made use o the ocean in a very

responsible way, but inland water resourceshave been much more underutilized and un-der-maintained, especially or transportation.In an age so dire to ind ways to mitigate thechallenge o climate change and its associ-ated impacts, recent research has indicatedthat inland water transportation representsthe cleanest mode o transportation. Thisindicates the potential or an increase in us-age o inland waterways or transportation.The use o inland water transportation isorecast to rise because o the potential orshort sea shipping, expanding deep-sea opera-tions, and alternative mitigation options orclimate change. Coastal water transporta-tion is associated with low probability, high

consequence accidents, which makes reliabil-ity requirements or the design and operationor saety and environmental protection verynecessary. Collision represents the largest

percentage o accident risk scenarios amongwater transportation risk actors. This paperdiscusses recent work in risk and reliability-

based design, and sae and eicient vesseloperation in coastal waters. This includessystems based approach that covers proac-tive risk as well as holistic, multiple-criteriaassessment o waterways variables requiredto develop mitigation options and decisionsupport or preventive, protective and con-trol measures or various collision accidentscenarios within inland waterways.

Keywords: Id trsporttio, ccidets, ris s-sesset, vesse set, coisios, cite chge,rie potio, vigtio

*Cospog tho: T: 60-9-668-3 697; F x: 60- 9-668-319 3; : o.s @ t..y

145-173 pp MB_37(Kader)2.indd 145 2/19/2010 11:04:20 AM

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146 SI et al.

Journal of arine Environmental Engineering

1.0 IntroductIon

mrie trsporttio services provide

sbstti spport to vrios h ctivi-

ties its iportce hs og bee recogized.

ImO cross bodr ctivities i ritie

regtio coti essos ered tht cod

be ode or the qest or tods eviro-

et gob regtor bodies to eet cr-

ret eviroet cheges d dvce-

et o h civiiztio (SOlaS, 2004;

Chi R.a., 1983; Cooe, R.m. 1997). most

ImO regtor wors re ot dtor

or cost trsporttio. Except ipee-ttio isses tht re directed throgh g

sttes d port stte cotro. The cer ct d-

vtge o id wter trsporttio sste

(IWTS) over other odes o trsporttio,

short se service d evovig deep se ctivi-

ties re beig drive b recet eviroet

probes d dioges over tertive re-

ewbe ws o doig thigs. The criticit

o trsporttio opertios withi the cost-

ie d the prohibitive tre o the occr-

rece o ccidets de to high coseqeced osses hve eq de it ipertive

d ecessr to desig sstibe, eiciet

d reibe cost trsporttio sstes.

This icde cosidertio or hoistic chr-

cteristics tht o eviroet spects o

vigtio che, vesses d other wter

resorces isses sice sstibe id

wter sste cot std oe. Wterw

ccidets der the scerios o coisio,

ire d exposio, oodig, d grodig

(Botteberghs P.H., 1995; mrph, D.m. &

m.E. Pt-Core, 1996). Coisio is csed

b (see igre 1):

oss o propsio.i)

oss o vigtio sste.ii)

other ccidet ro the ship or wterws.iii)

This pper discsses ris d reibiit ode

or the ssesset d sis o coisio cci-

det scerios edig to desig or the preve-tio, cotro o coisios d protectio o the

eviroet. The pper so discss eeets

o the process tht ddress reqireet to op-

tiize desig, existig prctice, d ciitte

decisio spport or poic ccoodtio or

evovig cost trsporttio regies.

2.0 rIsk and relIabIlIty modellIng

requIrement

I order to bid reibe id wter

trsporttio sste, it is iportt to

derstd the eed sis throgh ex-

itio o the copoets o sste

ctioit cpbiit d stdrds re-

qireet. These icde jor reqire-

ets d cssiictio o cost wter

trsporttio sste. aso iportt is

ctioit cpbiit ie che, ves-

se, teri, d other spport sstes.

Eviroet ris s we s geig ctorsreted to desig, opertio, costrctio,

itece, ecooic, soci, d dispos

reqireet or sstibe rie sste

eed to be critic sed. Ris idetiic-

tio wor shod be oowed b ris sis

tht icde ris rig, iit cceptbiit

d geertio o best optios towrds de-

FIGuRE 1Wterws ris b ccidet ctegories [11].


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SFETy D EVIROET RISk D REIBIITy ODEIG PROCESS 147


veopet o set d eviroet ris

itigtio d go bsed objective or ev-

tio o the deveopet o sstibe costeective id wter trsporttio tht

der ew geertio gree techoog

(Report o rie ccidet, 2009). Weigh-

ig o dedctive bcig wor reqireet

or reibe d se id wter trspor-

ttio throgh itertive copoets o

eeets ivoved shod icde soci, eco-

oic, heth, ecoogic d techoogic

cosidertios. Other cocers re reted

to other ses o wter resorces d throgh

best prctices o sediet dispos, itig-tio or eviroet ipct, cotios

geet, oitorig, d copestio

or certit s we s preprtio or -

tre regtio beod copice poic or

pricipes shod be ddressed.

Ris ssesset hs bee sed b the

bsiess coit d goveret, d

set cses o ris ssesset hve bee

sed b uited kigdo (uk) heth se-

t d eviroet (HSE). I the ritie

idstr, ris ssesset hs bee sed or

vesse set, rie strctre, trsporttio

o iqeied tr gs (lnG) d oshore

ptors. I Erope ritie ris ssess-

et hs bee sed or cost port ris -

ses d piot tige. Itertio mri-

tie Orgiztio (ImO) d uited Sttes

Cost Grd (uSCG) re ig hve issed

gideies d procedres or ris bsed deci-

sio ig, sis d geet der

or set ssesset (Report o rie

ccidet, 2009; Cooe, R.m. 1997; Det nor-

se Verits, 2004). Ris sis whe sedor reig is ced For Set assess-

et (FSa), whie whe it is sed or copi-

ce is ddressed s Qtittive Ris a-

sis (QRa). Coteporr tie hs see ris

ssesset optiiztio sig scerio bsed

ssessets, which cosidered the retive

riss o dieret coditios d evets. I the

ritie idstr, coteporr tie ris s-sesset hs bee istret to e rei-

be decisios reted to predictio o ood,

strctr reibiit, itct stbiit, coisio,

grodig d ire set. Probbiistic d

stochstic ris ssesset d cocrret se

o virt reit sitio tht cosider the

broder ipcts o evets, coditios, sce-

rios o geogrphic, tepor ipcts,

riss o coditios is iportt or coti-

os sste oitorig. additio, sesitiv-

it d cotigec (wht i) ses c beseective sed s toos to de with ret

reibiit d certit tht swer hidde

qestios i dic d copex sstes.

3.0 benefIts and lImItatIons of usIng

rIsk and relIabIlIty models

Rpt sste ire d probes

reted to sste ire hve broght the

eed to dopt ew phiosoph bsed otop dow ris d ie cce ode to desig,

operte d iti sstes bsed o ris

d reibiit. liewise, eectio o ter-

tive ws to itigte cheges o set d

eviroet ris o sste deserve hoistic,

reibiit sis pproches tht provide

the oowig beeits:

exibiit d reddc or iovtive,i.

tertive iprovised desig d cocept

deveopetevtio o ris redctio esre dii.

trsprec o decisio ig process

sstetic too to std copex probeiii.

iterctio betwee discipieiv.

ris d ipct vtio o sstev.


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148 SI et al.


ciitte proctive pproch or sste,vi.

set, crret desig prctice d -

geetciitte hoistic tochig o cotribtigvii.

ctor i sste wor

sstetic re ig, iit cceptbiitviii.

d poic ig deveopet

sis o trsporttio ssteix.

The dic distribtive coditio, og i-

cbet period d copexit o rie ss-

te coes with iited oversight tht e the

process o idetifctio d ddressig h

s we s orgiztio error difct. Thisicdes checs d bces, reddc, d

triig ore copicted. Iherit drwbcs

ssocited with ris d reibiit ode re

(SOlaS, 2006; SOlaS, 2006):

cs o historic dt (reqec, prob-i.

biit, expert jdget)

iig sste ctioit with stdrdsii.

reqireet drig sis (tot set

eve vs. idivid ris eve, cctio o

crret set eve)

ris idices d evtio criteri (idi-iii.vid ris cceptce criteri d ssti-

biit bce)

qtifctio o h error d cer-iv.

tit

The copexit ssocited with h d

orgiztio ctors reqires h reibiit

ssesset d certit sis to be od-

eed idepedet.

4.0 marIne pollutIon rIsk

a grop o experts o the scietiic spects

o rie potio coet o the codi-

tio o the rie eviroet i 1989, stt-

ed tht ost h prodct or wste eds

their ws i the estrie, ses d i to

the oce. Cheic cotitio d itterc be observed ro the tropics to the poes

d ro beches to bss depths. Bt the

coditios i the rie eviroet vr

wide. The ope se is sti cosiderb ce

i cotrst to id wters. However, tie

cotie to see tht the se is beig ected

b ost everwhere d ecroch-

et o cost res coties wordwide,

i checed. This tred wi ed to gob

deteriortio i the qit d prodctivit

o the rie eviroet (mrph, D.m. &m.E. Pt-Core, 1996).

This shows the extet d vrios ws h-

ctivities d ses wter resorces ect

the ecoogic d cheic stts o wter-

ws sste. Occrrece o ccidet withi

the costie is qite prohibitive de to i-

gibe coseqeces d eects to cost

hbitts. Recet eviroet perorce

stdies o trsporttio ode hs reveed

tht trsporttio b wter provides wide

dvtges i ter o ess, ow Gree Hose

Gs (GHG) reese, rge cpcit, cogestio,

deveopet iititive etc. These dvtges

tes bot high prospect or poteti od

shit o trsporttio d tre extesive

se o id wter rie trsporttio

where ris bsed sste wi be ecessr to

provide efciet, sstibe d reibiit

se ce wterws s we s coservtio

o eviroet.

This eq shows tht icrese i h

ctivities wi hve poteti eects i cost

d rie eviroet, ro poptiopressre, icresig deds or spce, co-

petitio over resorces, d poor ecooic

perorces tht c reciproc derie

the sstibe se o or oce d cost

res. Dieret ors o potts d c-


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tivities tht ect the qit o wter, ir d

soi s we s cost ecosstes re:

Wter: potio reese direct or wshedi.

dow throgh grod wter;

air potio: oise poptio, vibrtio;ii.

Soi: dredge dispos d cotitediii.

sediets.

Food ris: biocheic rectio o po-iv.

tio eeets with wter;

Coisio: opertio;v.

Bio diversifctio: edgered d thret-vi.

eed species, d hbitt;

mi sorces o rie potio:

Poit or potio: toxic cotits,i.

rie debris d dpig.

nopoit or potio: sewge, ieii.

species, d wtershed Isses.

mi sorces ro ships re i or o:

Opertio: opertio ctivities ogi.

the shippig rotes dischrgig wters

cotited with cheics (whetheritetio or itetio).

accidet ris: Coisio de to oss oii.

propsio or cotro.

Ris ssocited with eviroet isse i the

cotext o ship, desig hs ipcts reted to

shippig treds, che desig criteri, ship

oevrbiit d ship cotrobiit.

5.0 modellIng the rIsk and relIabIlItycomponents of complex and dynamIc

system

The coseqece o ritie ccidet

coes with eviroet probe. m-

rie sstes re dic sste tht hve

poteti or high ipct ccidets which

re predoite ssocited with eqip-et ire, exter evets, h error,

ecooic, sste copexit, eviroe-

t d reibiit isses. This c or io-

vtive ethods, toos to ssess opertio

isse, extree ccidet d ctstrophic

scerios. Sch ethod shod be extesive

se to itegrtio ssesset o h ee-

et, techoog, poic, sciece d ge-

cies to iiise dge to the eviroet.

Ris bsed desig etis the sstetic ris

sis i the desig process trgetig risprevetio d redctio s desig objec-

tive. The shod be itegrted with desig

eviroet to ciitte d spport ssti-

be pproch to ship d wterws desig

eed. Ths, ebig pproprite trde os

o dvce decisio ig tht cosider

size, speed, ovet, tpe d techoog ed-

ig to opti desig sotios (Det norse

Verits, 2004) (see igre 2).

Itegrted ris bsed sste desig re-

qires the vibiit o toos to predict the

set perorce d sste copoets

s we s itegrtio d hbridiztio o

set d eviroet ctors, iecce

phses d ethods. It is iportt to de-

veop, reie, veri, vidte throgh eec-

tive ethods d toos. Sch itegrtive d

FIGuRE 2Ris odeig process.

Total risk

conceptRisk basedmethod

Technolohgy elementEnvironmetal elementsHuman element

Risk based regulationrisk based operationrisk based design


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150 SI et al.


tot ris toos reqire ogic process with

hoistic ige betwee dt, idivid ris,

societ, orgiztio, sste descriptio,covetio ws, pricipe or sste desig

d opertio eed to be icorported i the

ris process. Veriictio d epoet o

sste bsed pproch i ris sis shod

be oowed with cretio o dtbse d

idetiictio o ove techoogies reqired

or ipeettio. uwted evet which

rei the cetr rot o ris ight is

occrrece tht hs ssocited desirbe

otcoe which rge ro trivi to ct-

strophic. Depedig o coditios d so-tio bsed techiqe i ris d reibiit

wor, the ode shod be desiged to pro-

tect ivestet, properties, citizes, tr

resorces d the istittio which hs to

ctio i sstibe er withi c-

ceptbe ris.

The ris d reibiit odeig process

begis with deiitio o ris which stds

or the esre o the reqec d sever-

it o coseqece o wted evet.

Freqec t which poteti desirbe

evet occrs is expressed s evets per it

tie, ote per er. upo estbishig der-stdig o whoe sste ro bseie dt

tht icde eeets o che d vesse

diesioig show i igre 3, the reqec

c be deteried ro historic dt. How-

ever, it is qite iheret tht evet tht does

ot hppe ote ttrcts severe coseqece

d c dt. Sch evet is better sed

throgh probbiistic d stochstic ode

hbrid with irst pricipe d se whtever

dt is vibe (kite-Powe, H.l., D. Ji, n.

m. Ptriis, J. Jebse, V. Pposttio,1996). Icidets re wted evets tht

or ot rest to ccidets i ecessr

esre is te ccordig to gitde o

evet d reqired speed o respose. Whie,

ccidets re wted evets tht hve either

iedite or deed coseqeces. Iedi-

te coseqeces vribes icde ijries,

oss o ie, propert dge d persos i

peri. Poit or coseqeces vribes i-

cde rther oss o ie, eviroet d-

FIGuRE 3Che d vesse diesio.


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ge, d ici costs. Sste ris c be

estited throgh eqtio 1.

Ris (R) = Probbiit (P)

X Coseqece (C) (1)

The erier stge o the ris d reibiit proc-

ess ivoves fdig cse o ris, eve o ipct,

destitio d pttig brrier b es

i the pthw o sorce, cse d victi. Ris

d reibiit process trgets the oowig:

Ris sis d redctio process: Thisi.

ivoves tic wor throgh seectivedeteriistic d probbiistic ethod

tht ssres reibiit i the sste. Redc-

tio process wi trget iiti ris redc-

tio t desig stge, ris redctio ter

desig i opertio d seprte sis

or resid ris or certit d h

reibiit. Ris i copex sstes c

hve its roots i ber o ctors rg-

ig ro perorce, techoog, h

error s we s orgiztio ctres,

o which spport ris tig or i to

sfciet ecorge ris versio.

Cse o ris d ris ssesset: thisii.

ivove sste descriptio, idetiig the

ris ssocited with the sste, ssessig

the d orgizig the ccordig to

degree o occrrece d ipct i trix

or. Cses o ris c te ws

icdig the oowig:

. Root cse: Ideqte opertor

owedge, sis or biities, or the

c o set geet sstei orgiztio.

b. Iedite cse: Fire to pp

bsic owedge, sis, or biities,

or opertor ipired b drgs or

coho.

c. Sittio cs ctor: nber o

prticipts tie/pig, votiit

eviroet ctors, cogestio,tie o d ris ssocited with ss-

te c be bsed o.

d. Orgiztio cs ctor: Orgi-

ztio tpe, regtor eviroet,

orgiztio ge geet tpe/

chges, sste reddc, sste

icidet/ccidet histor, idivid,

te triig d set geet

sste.

To de with difcties o ris igrtio riesste (copex d dic b tre), rei-

biit ssesset odes c be sed to cptre

the sste copex isses s we s ptters o

ris igrtio. Historic ses o sste

perorce is iportt to estbish peror-

ce bechrs i the sste d to ideti

ptters o triggerig evets which reqire

og periods o tie to deveop d detect (Ei

H., et ., 1997). liewise, ssessets o the

roe o h/orgiztio error d their

ipct o eves o ris i the sste re critic

i distribted, rge-sce sstes. This however

iposes ssocited phsic oversight ied to

certit drig sste desig. Eective ris

ssessets reqired three eeets:

Frewori.

modesii.

Processiii.

5.1 Risk Framework

Ris rewor provides sste descrip-

tio, ris idetiictio, criticit, rig,

ipct, possibe itigtio d high eve

objective to provide sste with wht wi

e it reibe. The rewor deveopet


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152 SI et al.


ivoves ris idetiictio which reqires

deveopig strctre or derstdig the

er i which ccidets, their iititigevets d their coseqeces occr. This

icdes ssesset o represettive sste

d iges tht re ssocited to the

sste ctioit d regtor ipct.

5.2 Models

The cheges o ris d reibiit eth-

od or copex d dic sstes ie ship

otio t se reqire reibe ris odes.Ris itigtio esres c be tested d

the trde o betwee dieret esres or

cobitios o esres c be evted.

Chges i the eves o ris i the sste

c be ssessed der dieret scerios d

icorportig wht i ses i dieret

ris itigtio esres. Perorce tred

FIGuRE 4Ris ode.

sis, ressesset o chier, eqip-

et, d persoe c be hep i s-

sessig the tiit o dieret ris redctioesres. Figres 4 d 5 show the ris co-

poets, sste ctioit d regtor

reqireet or reibiit ode tht c be

oowed or ech ris scerio.

5.3 Processes

The process shod be deveoped to provide

eective d sod ris sis where c-

crc, bce iortio tht eets highscietiic stdrds o esreet c be

sed s ipt. This reqires gettig the sciece

right d gettig the right sciece b trget-

ig iterests o stehoders icdig port,

wterw coit, pbic oicis, reg-

tors d scietists. Trsprec, coit

prticiptio is dditio ipt to the ris


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Goalbased

verification

of

compliance

criteria

IMO instruments/ Classification rules, industrial standards

Class guides, technical procedure

Approval

process

GoalAnalysis

Design

process

Secondary standards for company or individual ships

- Code of practice, safety and quality systems

shipbuilding, operation maintenance and manning

High level Goal Assessment / Safety and environmental

protection objective

-Standards Requirement

- Functional Requirement

Tier

1&2

Tier 3

Tier 4

Tier 5

FIGuRE 5High eve go bsed ssesset.

process; checs the psibiit o ssp-tios cod hep s the right qestios o the

sciece. Figre 6 d 7 show the ris process

digr. (See ppedix 1 or process og)

Tot itegrted ris c be represeted b:

Rt = (Re, Rs, Rh) (2)

Where: Re (eviroet) = (sesitivit, dvert

wether), Rs (ship) = (strctr d sste

reibiit, ship ot d crgo rrgeet),

Rh (crew) = (qifctio, tige, etc. )Hoistic d itegrted ris bsed ethod

cobied vrios techiqes i process

s depicted i Figre 8, this c be ppied

or ech eve o ris or sste i qestio.

Ech eve is copieted b ppig cs-

sis (sste ige), expert sis(expert rtig) d orgiztio sis

(Coit prticiptio).

Tbe 1 shows odes tht hve bee sed

i the desig sste bsed o riss. ImO d

Sirr et (1997) ethods c ssesset

o the ieihood o the evet. Other od-

es c epoet o stochstic ethod

whose rest cover certities ssoci-

ted with dic d copex copoets

o che, ship ire d cs ctors

ie vigtio eqipet, better triigd tric cotro (Gedes Sores, C., a.P.

Teixeir, 2001; Ei, H. et ., 1997). There-

ore, cobitio o stochstic, sttistic,

reibiit d probbiistic together with

hbrid epoet o go bsed, or


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154 SI et al.


FIGuRE 7Hoistic Ris sis Process.

FIGuRE 6Hoistic Ris sis Process.

set ssesset ethods d zz ti

criteri etwor ethod tht se historic

dt o wterws, vesse eviroet d

tric dt cod ied eiciet, sstibe

d reibe desig prodct or copex d

dic sstes. The geer hpothesis be-

hid ssessig phsic ris ode o ship

i wterws is tht the probbiit o


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TaBlE 1Previos ris wor.

Model Application Drawback

Brow et (1996) Eviroet perorce o ters

(Sirr et (1997)) Coseqeces o coisios d grodigs Difcties o qtiigcoseqece etrics

Brow d arozowicz Hbrid se o ris ssesset, probbiistic sitiod oi spi coseqece ssesset ode

Oi spi ssesset iited to seo t tre

Sirr et (1997) mote Cro techiqe to estite dge+ spi costsis or eviroet dge

lc o cost dt

ImO (ImO 13F 1995) Potio prevetio idex ro probbiit distribtiosdge d oi spi.

lc (Sirr et (1997)). rtio

Reserch CociCoittee (1999)

atertive rtio pproch to esrig ipct ooi spis

lc epoet o stochsticprobbiistic ethods

Price Wii Sod,as, (PWS (1996))

The ost copete ris ssesset lc o ogic ris ssessetrewor (nRC (1998))

(Vope ntioTrsporttio Cetre(1997)).

accidet probbiities sig sttistics d expert opiio. lc epoet o stochsticethods

Pget Sod are(uSCG (1999)).

Sitio or o expert opiio or costbeeft sis

Ce p cost d eviroetdge oissio

FIGuRE 8Tot ris cocept.

ccidet o prticr trsit depeds o

set o r is vribes which reqired to be

zed or ecessr cocsio o pro-

spective reibe desig.

Ris d reibiit odeig ivoves hz-

rd idetiictio, ris screeig, brod

ocsed, rrow ocsed d detied a-

sis, Tbe 2 shows itertive ethod tht c


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156 SI et al.


be icorported or vrios eeds d stges

o the process.

6.0 accIdent analysIs

accidet d icidet eed to be preveted

s the coseqece cod rest to copro-

ise to set edig to orgettbe ossesd eviroet ctstrophic. Pst egi-

eerig wor hs ivoved deig with cci-

det isses i rective er. Sste ire

d berbe eviroet probes c

or ew proctive ws tht ccot or eq-

it reqireet or h, techoog d

eviroet iterctio i the sste. The

ccidet ctegories d poteti ire

i wterws is show i igres 9. Figre

coisio cotribtor ctors odeed ro

RElEX sotwre.

The whoe process strts with sste de-scriptio, ctioit, regtor deteri-

tio d this is oowed with sis o:

Fct gtherig or derstdig o co-i.

tribtio ctor

Fct sis or chec o cosistec oii.

ccidet histor

Cocsio o cstio d cotribtigiii.

ctor

Coteresres d recoedtiosiv.

or prevetio o ccidet

The process is oowed b probbiit d

stochstic cctio sis o cse d

reqec ode where ve o ech ode

extrcted ro dt ccordig to opertio

sittio re sed i sste odeig. The

process is the oowed b severit cc-

tio sis o coseqece ode where the

probbiit or ech brch d the ve o

ed stte (severit) is etched ro odeed

dtbse.

6.1 Collision Scenario

Coisio is the strctr ipct betweetwo ships or oe ship d otig or sti

objects tht cod rest to dge. Coisio

is cosidered ireqet ccidet occrrece

whose coseqece i ecooic, eviro-

et d soci ters c be sigiict.

TaBlE 2Process tbe.

Process Suitable techniques

HaZID HaZOP, Wht i sis, FmEa, FmECa

Ris sis FTa, ETa

Ris evtio Iece digr, decisio sis

Ris cotro optio Regtor, ecooic, eviroet d ctio eeets tchigd itertio

Cost beeft sis ICaF, net Beeft

H reibiit Sitio/ Probbiistic

ucertit Sitio/probbiistic

Ris moitorig Sitio/ probbiistic


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FIGuRE 10Coisio cotribtig ctors odeed ro RElEX sotwre.

FIGuRE 9accidet scerio.

Prevetio o coisio dges is ie to

be ore cost-eective th itigtio o

its coseqeces. Probbiistic predictios

c be ehced b sig opertor e-

ects, dritig d oss o power or propsortht te ito ccot ship d wterw

sstes, peope d eviroet ito co-

sidertio. Other cstive ctors ie the

probbiit o disbed ship s ctio o

ship tpe, the probbiit o disbed ship

dritig towrds objects so eed to be c-

coted or. The coisio ode scerio

so ivoves dt chrcteristic o h r-

es d eviroet iortio; jor

cotribtig ctors to coisio re showi Figre 11.

Otcoe o sis is oowed b sitbe

Ris Cotro Optios (RCO), where iter-

tio o ct ctioit d regtor

eeets is checed with cost. The beeit


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158 SI et al.


reised ro set, eviroet protec-

tio d eect o the probbiit o high eveo certit ssocited with h d

orgiztio cotribtig ctor to ris

o coisio re so iportt. The ris

process ctios to deterie d dedce

the ide or odest, eiciet, sstibe

d reibe sste reqireet d rrge-

et (Prr, G., 1996; Pte Core, m.E.,

1996). Coisio crried the highest sttistic

i respect to ship ccidet d ssocited c-

sit. The coseqeces o coisio re:

The oss o h ie, ipcts o thei.

ecoo, set d heth, or the evi-

roet;

The eviroet ipct, especi iii.

the cse where rge ters re ivoved.

However, eve ior spis ro id

o ercht ship c or thret to the

eviroet;

Fici coseqeces to oc coi-iii.

ties cose to the ccidet, the fci co-

seqece to ship-owers, de to ship oss

or peties;Dge to cost or o shore irstrc-iv.

tre, or expe coisio with bridges.

Coisio evets re ped, ws possi-

be, bt eective gebe d reqet

preceded b reted evets tht c be detected

d corrected b hvig derig root csesrgig ro h errors, eqipet i-

res, or exter evets. The rest o reqec

d coseqece sis is checed with ris

cceptbiit idex or idstr o cocered.

Tbes 3 d 4 show ris cceptbiit criteri

or ritie idstr. The sed iece

digr dedced ro the copriso c be

oowed with cost cotro optio sig cost o

vertig tit idex or Ip Cost o avert-

igFtit (ICaF) d as low s Resobe

Possibe (alaRP) pricipe.

6.2 Failure Modes Eect Analysis (FMEA)

a Fire modes Eect asis (FmEa)

is power botto p too or tot ris

TaBlE 3Freqec ris cceptbiit criteri or ritie idstr.

Frequency

classes Quantifcation

Ver ie oce per 1000 er or ore ie

Reote oce per 100- 100 er

Occsio oce per 10- 100 er

Probbe oce per 1- 10 ers

Freqet ore ote th oce per er

FIGuRE 11Cse o coisio.

Human errorsFailure on propulsion machinery and steering failure

Environment

Other factors related to accidentFactor related to the ship

Causes of

Ship Collision


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Tbe 4Coseqece ris cceptbiit criteri or ritie idstr.

Quantifcation Serenity Occurrence Detection RPN

Crret ire tht c rest to deth ire, perorceo issio

ctstrophic 1 2 10

Fire edig to degrdtio beod ccotbe iit dcsig hzrd

critic 3 4 7

Cotrobe ire edig to degrdtio beodcceptbe iit

jor 4 6 5

nisce ire tht do ot degrde sste overperorce beod cceptbe iit

ior 7 8 2

sis. FmEa is probb the ost co-o sed or qittive sis d is so

the est copex. FmEa hs bee epoed

i the oowig res:

The erospce idstr drig the apooi.

issios i the 1960s.

The uS nv i 1974 deveoped tooii.

which discssed the proper se o the tech-

iqe.

Tod, FmEa is ivers sed b di-

eret idstries. There re three i tpes oFmEa i se tod:

Sste FmEa: cocept stge desig ss-i.

te d sb-sste sis.

Desig FmEa: prodct desig sisii.

beore reese to ctrers.

Process FmEa: ctrig ssebiii.

process sis.

azig FmEa ivoves:

listig e process steps i fr coi.

or the highest red ites ris trix.

listig the poteti ire ode or echii.

process step: how the process ipt cod

go wrog.

listig the eects o the ire ode:iii. wht does the ire ode e to ste-

hoders.

Rtig severit o the eect : 1 beig otiv.

severe t d 10 beig extree

severe.

Idetiig the cses o the ire odev.

eect d r the eects i the occr-

rece co: the scorig deotes how

ie this cse wi occr. Score o 1

es it is high ie to ever occr

d 10 es we expect it to hppe

the tie.Idetiig the cotros i pce to detect thevi.

isse d r its eectiveess i the detec-

tio co: 1 wod e there re exce-

et cotros d 10 wod e there re

o cotros or extree we cotros.

It is strog recoeded tht Sereit, Oc-

crrece d Detectio (SOD)or we cotro

shod be oted. SOD bers is tipied

d the ve is stored i RPn (ris priorit

ber) co. This is the e ber thtwi be sed to ideti where the te shod

ocs frst. I, or expe, there is cse with

severit o 10 (ver severe), occrrece o 10

(hppes the tie), d detectio o 10 (c-

ot detect it) RPn is 1000. This idictes seri-


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160 SI et al.


os sittio tht reqires iedite ttetio.

The coseqece cod rther be broe dow

ito eect or ship, h set, oi spi, d-ge, ecoog, eissio d other eviroet

ipcts. nber 110 re ssiged ccordig

to eve o sereit. Ris priorit ber (RPn)

or tot sereit is deteriig s oows:

RPn = S X O X D (3)

6.3 ALARP principal, risk acceptability

criteria and risk control option

Coseqece threshods priorit o ve

choice is wrded. The highest Coseqece

tripped i order o priorit give the over

coseqece. Catastrophic: Descriptors o

ctstrophic coseqeces or 1. Peope; 2.

Irstrctre; 3. Ves. Major: Descriptors

o jor coseqeces or 1. Peope; 2. I-

rstrctre; 3. Ves. Moderate: Descriptors

o oderte coseqeces or 1. Peope; 2.

Irstrctre; 3. Ves. Minor: Descriptors

o ior coseqeces or 1. Peope; 2. Ir-

strctre; 3. Ves. Insigniicant: Descriptors

o isigiict coseqeces or 1. Peope;

2. Irstrctre; d 3. Ves.

Ris cceptbiit criteri estbishet is

dic becse o diereces i eviro-

et, diversit i idstries d choice o

regtios reqireet to iit the ris. Ris

is ever cceptbe, bt the ctivit ipig

the ris be cceptbe de to beeits o

set redced, tit, ijr, idivid ris,

societ ris, eviroet d ecoo. Per-

ceptio regrdig cceptbiit is describedb Gree et (1998). The rtioit

be debted, societ ris criteri re sed b

icresig ber o regtors.

Figre 12 shows prescribed istrtive i-

ece digr b ImO. Bsed o regio

where the grph s, step or ris cotro

optio d sstibiit bcig, cost be-

eit eectiveess towrds recoedtioor eiciet, reibe, sstibe decisio

c be te. The reqec (F) o ccidets

ivovig coseqece (n) or ore ti-

ties be estbished i siir ws s

idivid or societ ris criteri. For riss

i the cceptbe/itoerbe ris regio,

the riss shod be redced t cost. Ris

mtrix costrcted ro sste d sb ss-

te eve sis c be dedced ccordig

to cceptbiit idex deied ccordig to

tbe 5 d igre 12 to dedced esreo alaRP. Withi alaRP rge, Cost E-

ectiveess assesset (CEa) or Cost Be-

eit asis (CBa) show i Figre 13

be sed to seect resob prcticbe ris

redctio esres.

7.0 rIsk analysIs consIderatIons

I dditio to sod process, robst

ris rewor d evet dedctive ris

ode, there re other cosidertios tht

shod be ctored ito the desig o e-

ective ris ode. These ites icde the se

o vibe dt, the eed to ddress h

ctors, res o iterest, stehoder iterest

d pproches to tretig certit i ris

sis. Dt reqired or ris wor shod

ivove iortio o tric ptters, the

eviroet (wether, se coditios, d

visibiit), historic, crret opertio

perorce dt, d h perorcedt. The odes itetios re high de-

pedet o pproprite seected dtbses

tht ccrte represet the oc sittio

d the eectiveess o the odes. However,

there is ws isse o issig dt or dt


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Minimum sum of cost

Minimum sum of cost

costt

Cost of polution control

High damage cost withno control

No economic gain frompolusion control

Cost of damage from

polution

Diferent between cost of polutioncontrol and environmetal damage

FIGuRE 13Ris cost beeft d sstibiit sis crve.

FIGuRE 12Iece digr, alaRP = as low as Resob Prcticbe: Ris eve bodries (negigibe/alaRP/Itoerbe).

TaBlE 5Ris trix.


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162 SI et al.


iittios especi or copex sste d

their ow reqec, high coseqece tre.

Thereore cretive procedres re reqiredto deveop copestio or dt retio-

ships. The ode cod se probbiistic,

stochstic, sitio d expert jdgets

cope existig deteriistic d historic

ethod or reibe sste sis o de-

sired desig (m. ko, H.l. Stipdo, W.a. de

Vries, 1995; Stieh, G.l., 1977).

Whe isiciet oc dt is vibe,

word wide dt ro other res be

reerred to (e.g., Erope, soth d north

aeric). However, oes eed to e s-sptios bot the siirit o opertios

i the cocered re or esewhere. This is to

esre how behvior i oe spect o oper-

tio (e.g., cop geet qit)

preter (e.g., oss o crew tie) corretes

with other re (e.g., opertios set).

The dt ro other res c be sed s

og s jor preters d eviroe-

t ctors re copred d we tched.

Cre is reqired with the se o wordwide

dt s ch o those dt re ieced

b octios or oc eviroet codi-

tios (Sjog, R., 2002). Eectroic ccess

to wordwide cst dt sch s the Pris

mOu, u.k., mrie accidet Ivestigtio

Bord (maIB) d ImO Port Stte detetio

dtbses es possibe ccess to wordwide

cst sttistics. Diigece shod so be

observed bot the rge ber o s

sce, ocized icidets tht occr tht re

ot trced b rie set thorities, e.g

s crt (ot ws registered or beig

be to be detected b VTS, aIS) ccidetsi wterws. aeric Bre o shippig

(aBS) hs beg eort to ideti precr-

sors or edig idictors o set i rie

trsporttio. H Fctors odeig

shod be cosidered or distribtive, rge

sce sstes with iited phsic oversight.

assessig the roe o h d orgiz-

tio perorce o eves o ris i thesste is iportt, sch error is ote cited

s prir cotribtor to ccidet, which

ed p evig sste with ore -

ow. Expert jdgets d vis re-

it sitio c be sed to i sch -

certit gps d others ie wether dt.

Eve whe ttepts re de to iiize

errors ro expert jdgets, the dt re

iheret sbject to distortio d bis. With

extesive ist o reqired dt, there re

iits tht vibe dt c pce o the c-crc, copeteess d certit i the

ris ssesset rests. Expert jdgets give

predictio bot the ieihood tht ires

tht wod occr i speciic sittios c

be sed to qti h reibiit ipt

i ris process.

ucertit is ws prt o sste behv-

ior. Two coo certities re: etor

certit (the rdoess o the sste

itse) d episteic certit (the c o

owedge bot the sste). aetor -

certit is represeted b probbiit od-

es whie episteic certit is represeted

b c o owedge cocerig the pr-

eters o the ode (Pte Core, m.E., 1996).

aetor certit is critic, it c be d-

dressed throgh probbiistic ris sis

whie episteic certit is critic to -

ow eig decisio ig. Sitio

oers oe o the best optios to cover extree

cse certit besides probbiit. Ev-

tio d copriso o bseie scerio to

set o scerios o iterest (tg escort) dopertio circstce icdig tieies

d roes c so be icorported. Respose

Scerios c so be sed or thigs

tht c ot be igied or odeed to be

ccoted or i the sitor (especi re


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tie). a exibe critic pth d sc sis

c be perored s ipt to the sste si-

tio d certit sis (Chi (1983)d Ei et ., (1997)). a set ctre qes-

tioire which ssesses orgiztio, vesse

set ctre d cite c be diistered

to provide qtittive d qittive ipt to

the set ctre d eviroet percep-

tio sis or sstibe sste desig.

7.1 Between Reliability and Validation

Frther reibiit wor d vidtio othe ris sis cod be ctivted throgh

the oowig:

accidet es, vrice d stdrdi.

devitio ro or distribtio

For 10 ers => me () = 10 Fc (4)

Vrice () = 10 Fc (1 - Fc),

Stdrd devitio = , Z = (X -)/ (5)

yer or sste to i ro bioi, eii.tie to ire d poiso distribtio.

Poiso distribtio probbiit t n tri is

represeted b:

F N / e T N!r

N

, ,( )= ( ) ( ), (6)

where = Fc, T = tie to i

Bioi distribtio or evet thtiii.

occrs with costt probbiit P o ech

tri, the ieihood o observig evet in tri is bioi distribtio.

L(K / N,P)N

PP 1 P

K N,K=

-( ) (7)

averge ber o occrrece is nP

Coprig the ode behvior ppic-iv.

tio to other rivers o retive profe d

vesse prticr or copriso o iprove-et p ipeeted ie trfc sepr-

tio schee (TSS).

Trigtig sis o s o probbi-v.

it o ire ro sbsste eve ire

sis.

Pottig o ogor, probbiit desitvi.

ctive d desit ctio.

8.0 conclusIon

Foowig irreprbe d ecooic oses

ro trditio rective ctio gist c-

cidet d icesst sste ire, istit-

tios re evovig with hbrid proctive top

dow d botto p sste bsed pproch

tht ccot or tot ris ssocited with

sste iecce to protect the eviroet

d prevet ccidet. Those tht cot be

preveted d protected eed or st be co-

troed der ris d reibiit bsed desig

/ operbiit ptor.

Deveopet o ove ethod to ddress

ech cotribtig ctor to ccidet is ver

iportt. The poteti or id wter is

gret d there is eed to ipeet ImO

res ode to itigte ccidet ris. Coi-

sio ris is ch coo d propsio

ire, oss o vigtio cotro d h-

error re the sb sste cotribtig

ctors. Precedig tot ris qittive ss-

te descriptio d hzrd idetiictio,

probbiistic d stochstic process qti-ttive sis c be perored or sste

eve sis, whie t tree d evet tree

qtittive sis c be tiized to de-

terie ris idex o the sbsste ctors.

Iterprettio o ris idex ito alaRP i-


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164 SI et al.


ece digr c provide decisio spport

iortio ecessr or cost cotro optio

towrds sstibe, reibe, eiciet tech-oog choice or sste desig d oper-

tio. The ctive rests ro qittive

sis c be de ore reibe throgh

itertive qtittive, scietiic, stochstic

d reibiit sis. These ethods pro-

vide vbe d eective decisio spport

too or ppictio o toted sste

egieerig sis tht ciitte icsio

o reibiit, eviroet protectio d

set s prt o the itertive desig proc-

esses or ew d iovtive rie sstedesigs. Iteiget doptio o those proc-

esses evet c rest to ser, eiciet,

ore reibe d sstibe sste.

references

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Botteberghs P.H., 1995. QRa i the netherds. Coerece o

Set Cses. IBC/DnV. lodo.

Report o rie ccidet, 2009. https://www.it.go.jp/12egish/i/pbictios/report2003/cses.pd, ccessed i mrch.

Sjog, R., Ve, E. & Ederse, O., 2005. Ris EvtioCriteri. SaFEDOR. 2005. Deiverbe D.4.5.2 (Sbittedto mSC 81 b Der).

Itertio mritie Orgistio (ImO). ItertioCovetio or the Set o lie t Se (SOlaS), 2006.(1974). aedets. Chpter II-2, Prt D, Reg. 13. meso Escpe.

Itertio mritie Orgistio (ImO). aedets to theGideies or For Set assesset (FSa), 2006 oruse i the ImO Re mig Process. mSC/ mEPC.2 / Circ5 (mSC/Circ.1023 mEPC/Circ.392).

mrph, D.m. & m.E. Pt-Core., 1996. The Sam Frewor.a Sstes asis approch to modeig the Eects omgeet o H Behvior i Ris asis. Risasis. 16:4. 501515.

GESamP, 1990. The State o the Marine Environment, ImO/FaO/unESCO/ WmO/WHO/IaEa/un/unEP Joit Grop

o Experts o the Scietifc aspects o mrie Potio.Bcwe Scietifc Pbictios. lodo.

Chi, R.a., 1983. Coisios d Their Cses. lodo,Egd: Firp Pbictios.

Cooe, R.m., 1997. ucertit modeig: Expes d Isses.Set Sciece. 26:1, 4960.

Det norse Verits, 2004. Thetic networ or Setassesset o Wterbore Trsporttio. norw.

Gedes Sores. C., a.P. Teixeir., 2001. Ris assesset imritie Trsporttio. Reibiit Egieerig dSste Set. 74:3, 299309.

kite-Powe, H.l., D. Ji, n.m. Ptriis, J. Jebse, V.Pposttio, 1996. Fortio o mode or ShipTrsit Ris. mIT Se Grt Techic Report. Cbridgema. 9619.

Ei, H. et ., 1997. a approch to Set assesset or Ship

Strctres, ETa sis o egieroo fre, Proceedigso ESREl 97. Itertio Coerece o Set dReibiit. Vo. 2.

Prr, G., 1996. The Chrcteriztio o ucertit iProbbiistic Ris assessets o Copex SstesReibiit Egieerig d Sste Set. 54:2-3. 119126.

Roeeve, D., m. ko, H.l. Stipdo, W.a. de Vries, 1995.Id Wterw Trsport: modeig the Probbiities oaccidets. Set Sciece. 19:2-3. 191202.

Sjog, R., 2002. Ris acceptce Criteri: Crret Propossd ImO Positio. Proceedigs o the coerece o SrceTrsport Techoogies or Sstibe Deveopet.Veci. Spi.

Stieh, G.l., 1977. Prospects or Shippig liqefed ntr Gs.mrie Techoog. 14:4. 351378.

n. Sores, C., a.P. Teixeir 2001. Ris assesset i mritieTrsporttio. Reibiit Egieerig d Sste Set.74:3. 299309.

Pte Core, m.E., 1996. ucertities i Ris asis: 6 leveso Tretet. Reibiit Egieerig d Sste Set.54:2-3. 95111.


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Appendix 1: Risk analysis process fow chart and Process log

Step 1


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166 SI et al.


S/n activit Ipt Iterctig sb-

process

Critic isses Cotros Cotroig

esreet

otpt

Otpt

Comment

1 Ipt ro

probe

defitio

Scope & deti

ro checist

mig checist Scope o

reserch, reevt

ccordig to re

& regtio

- - Scope o

HaZaRD

IDEnTIFI-

CaTIOn process

Ste hoder Profe - Cotribtio,

vibiit

Qifctio,

experiece,

pig

rod tbe

schedig

Te strctre. HaZID

ciittio

Seect recorder Dt recordig - abiit to cptre

reevt ipts

use o

sotwre, tpe-

recordig

moitorig o

records

Seected recorder

Obti

ecessr

iortio,

dt

&spportig

docets

Cst

sttistic, dt,

expert ipt

Root cse sis

o ccidet s d

icidets

Vidit o the

ipt dt

Ipt ro

reptbe

dtbses

d reevt

experiece

Coverget chrcter

o ipts

assiited dt

Schede &

orgize etig

distribte

teri

all-

eggeet

Tie or

copetio o

HaZID process,

cost o eetig

Seectio

o std b

tertive

Tie or rod

tbe sessio

Schede

Brstorig to

ideti ccidet

scerio sig

e.g. DElPHI,

wht- i /

checist,

FmEa, HaZOP,

RCa, Ts

asis

Cst

sttistic, dt ,

expert ipt

Wht I , checist,

FmEa, HaZOP,

RCa, Ts asis

Eviroet

d ste hoder

ttitde

Evtio o

ipts

Diverget o ipt Ideti ccidet

scerios

Coprehesive? accidet

scerio

Diverget

reevt o ipts

- Cssifctio o

ipts

Decisio

cotribte o

process

Estite

reqec: seect

pproprite

techiqe e.g.

FmEa, FTa

( with HRa)

Ech ccidet

scerios

FmEa, FTa (with

HRa)

Vidit o rest Vidtio with

reported dt

experiece

Vritio ro

reported dt

Freqec

estite (F)

Estite

coseqece:

seect

pproprite

techiqe e.g.

ETa, HaZOP,WHaT-IF (with

HRa)

Ech ccidet

scerios

ETa, HaZOP,

WHaT-IF (with

HRa)

Vidit o rest Vidtio with

reported dt

experiece

Vritio ro

reported dt

Coseqece

estite (C)

Cssi d

r hzrds

accidet

scerio(F

&C)

- Estbish

ris trix,

eiitio

o irreevt

scerio

Reported dt

d experiece

o ebers

% o geerted

scerios

R scerio

Sr /

rest

accidet

scerio(F

&C)

- Resoig o

rig , crit

Docets

stdrds

(ImO, IaCS,

PIanC, luaS)

Step oe sr

d presettio

Otpt ro

step 1

Step 1


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Step 2


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168 SI et al.


S/n activit Ipt Iterctig sb-

process

Critic isses Cotros Cotroig

esreet

otpt

Otpt

Comment

1 Prioritize isto hzrdosscerios

Ipt rohzrdidetifctio

- assesset o ost sigifctccidet scerio

-

2 Prioritize isto hzrdosscerios

Preprtiophse or step 2ctivities

mig checistor step 2ssesset(Reer IdictiveChecist)

Cotribtio,vibiito toos dstehoders

Qifctio ,experiece , pigd schedig

Size , dtes Step 2 toos,te,stehoderpig

3 Ideti hzrdist scerio

Seect hzrdscerio

abiit tocptre reevt

ipts

mpped rest rostep 1

- Seectedscerios

4 Scerio dt asis o scerio dto icidet dccidet

Root csesis(RCa)o ccidet s dicidets

Vidit o iptdt

Ipt ro repteddt bsed , reevtexperiece oebers

Covergecechrcteristics oipts

assiiteddt

5 Scerio dt,experiece , step1 detis, RCa

Idetiigiititive evets

Gropig iititors Correct seqeceo evets

Drwig ppreiir evetthre

avoidce o dobecotig, ber oevets

Idetiiititigevets

6 Dt experiece,igitig evets

Deveopigevets three

ETa, Wht i /checist, FmEa,HaZOP,RCa, Tssis

Coocse ires,correctess oodes, doioeects

Evtio gistHaZID

Strctre o evetthree tie tocostrct

Evet tree

7 Dt experiece,iititig evets

Deveopigt trees

FTa FmEa Correctesso ode,ssptio isste defitio

Evtio oii ct sets

Strctre o ttree, tie tocostrct

Ft treeswith cts sets

8 Evets tree dt tree

Deveopigo riscotribtiotrees

ETa & FTa Costrcto FTa`s oriititive dcritic evets

Vidtio withreported dt/experiece

- Riscotribtiothree (RCT)

9 Historic dt Cctio oreqec oevets

Vidtio orest

Vritio roreported dt/experiece

-vritio roreported dt

Freqecestite F

10 Historic dt Cctio oreqec oevets

Vidtio orest


Vritio roreported dt

Coseqeceestite ,

11 Scerio , F&C Credibiitchec

Vidtio orest



Credibiitscerio

12 RCT reqec&coseqeces

QtiigRCa, Ristrix, Fn

CuRVE

Ris trix FnCctio

Vidtio orest



13RCT reqec&coseqeces

Evtio ocertit

- Reibiitestites

Vidit withreported dt


ucertitsiss

`14 Ris ssessetcertities

acceptce orests

Reerece tocceptcestdrd step 3d 4

appictioo cceptcestdrds

Vidtio withpbished dt

Ris evtio Otpt rostep 2

15 Step 2 otpt docettio - Coverge crit Docettiostdrds (ImO,IaCS, PIanC)

Cotetspresettio

Sr

Step 2


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Step 3


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170 SI et al.


Step 3

S/n activit Ipt Iterctig sb-process

Critic isses Cotros Cotroigesreet

otpt

Otpt

Commen

t

1 Preprtorphse orsteps 3

list oHzrdsneedig RisCotro

mig chec listor step 2

Cotribtioebers,vibiit oebers

Experiece,qifctio,pig ,schede, bristorig

Costitet, propos Scope o HaZaRDIDEnTIFICaTIOnprocess

2 litertresrve orretedhzrds

Res,regtios,idstrprctice

Dt ccstiotheor o riscotro

Estbishet obse ve o ris ,vidit o dt

Qit dexperiece,costitets,pbisheditertre

- bcgrod

3 Srizeris , cotrooptios ,

ideti roHaZID

Step 1 Report - Vidtio o riseve i step 1d 2

Copriso oreported ris

Ris coprbiit Preiir RCO

4 Ideti highris red highcertitre or riscotro

Step 2 dstep 1 report

- High probbiit ,high sereit dow cofdeceres

Prioritize reeed cotro

nodes i evet trees&ires i ct-setso FTa

are eed cotro

5 Rti risprofeccordigto cssstttorcocers

Hzrd&res/regtios

- High probbiit ,high sereit dow cofdeceres

- - Rti ris profe

6 Idetiexistigris cotroesre

(RCm)

STEP 1 Step 1bristorig

Fexibiit /prcticbiit,perorcebsed/ perceptive

i tre

acceptce bte

Divergece o opiio list o ew RCms

7 me RCmslog dreview

- - Coprehesivecoverge

- - RCm og

8 assigttribte oRCms

- Brstorig dsortig

Iterctiobetwee ttribtes

avoidig overreice o sigectegor

- RCms withttribtes

9 Deveopcs chi

Step 2 Step 2 Recogitioo derigiece

Vidtio withevet trees

- Pivot evets o RCms

10 Crete riscotrooptio og

- Seectio o pproch

Prcticbiit oregtor optio

Prevetivedistribtedpproch

Prevetio/ itigtio RCO og

11 assesseectiveess

Step 2 Step 2 redctio o ris/o ew ris

Ris ssesset Fn Crve / ris profe Redctio i ris

12 Report For

STEP 3

- - Cer & Cocise

Report

Reportig

Stdrds

- Step 3 Report


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Appendix 2: IWTS environmental and saety risk block model

Vessel EnvironmentalRisk

VRi

Benefit to User

Classify and

Rank

Hazards

Waterway Traffic Potential

Ranking Phase

Maximum Vessel Size

Benefit to ClimateChange

Vessel Green TechnologyVessel Environmentalrisk

Ranking Phase

haseRa

a

Ves l Si


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172 SI et al.


Appendix 3: Regulatory and unctionality infuence diagram

Appendix 4: Preliminary hazard analysis

hzrd eeet triggerigevet1

hzrdoscoditio

triggerigevet 2

poteticcidet

eect correctiveesres

ietic eerg oss o vigtiocotro

ship1 si ordo corse

other ship iso ship1 corse

coisio,rptre o crgots

tities,eviroetdge, dgeto h

Iprovigvigtiostdrds

ietic eerg oss o vigtiocotro

ship1 si ordo corse

sttiorobstce o ship1 corse

powergrodig ,rptre o crgot

tities,eviroetdge, dgeto h

ietic eerg Obstce oship1 corse

retrdtio (i.e.reverse)

oveet osteedteri obord vesse

crshedpersoe,teri dge

tities,eviroetdge


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Appendix 5: HAZOP

no Gideword Descriptio Cses Set esre

1 no Pitch no rottio eerg istrsored

opertio , cotroechis, iget ire

ddress b 2, 3, 4, 5

2 no bde no rottio eerg istrsored

Object i the wter brethe bde

ipeettio o propeerprotectio sch s grtigjet, si i ice ree wter,+7& 9

3 no cotro br a bde o rdo pitch,oss o opertio cotro

teri weess iprove desig dcostrctio

4 no cr whee O bde hveidepedet pitch

teri weess iprove desig dcostrctio

5 nOT eogh teristregth

prt o propeer bredow wrog desig, corrosioor cvittios, igetdieret pitch, extr od o

berig

vidte propeer desig,cthoic protectio,pproprite propeer

teri, test the propeergist cvittios periodiciget djstet

6 mORE pitch th opti Too hev od opropsio sste.Cvittios

opertio ire srveice, icreseopertor copetec

7 lESS pitch th opti Too itte od o propsiosste. Cvittios


8 lESS drt th owed Propeer I ot sfcietsberged. loss o Thrst


9 lESS depth th ecessr Propeer hit the grod dit is dged

opertio ire techic eqipet,srveice, icreseopertor copetec

145-173 pp jmee kader

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