Opening session

2

Stephan Neugebauer, EGVIA Chairman

Jean-François Aguinaga, DG RTD

EGVI

Presentation of the CO2 evaluation assessment from ERTRAC

3

Prof. Zissis Samaras,ERTRAC Vice Chair

EU Road Vehicle Energy Consumption and CO2 emissions by 2050Expert-Based Scenarios

2

What vision for 2050?What vision for 2050?

A “CO2-neutral road transport with minimal environmental impact including circular economy for vehicles and infrastructure”

3

Research areas to be explored to achieve ourcommon target of CO2 reduction

How can we achieve this vision ?

4

Different use case scenarios

Expert assessment of therange of CO2 saving potentials

The ERTRAC CO2 Evaluation Exercise3 types of measures

All types of vehiclesconsidered

Assumptions

§ Increase of road vehicles activity by 15% compared to today’s level.

§ The following vehicle activity share was projected (used in Type A and B measures –slightly modified by Type C measures)

5

Baseline 2050 road transport activity shares (% of vehicle-kilometres) by vehicle segment

6

Scenario definition

High Electrification (HE)

Maximum market uptake of PHEV and BEV

High Electrification + Hydrogen (HEH)

Addition of the FCEV option on top of the High Electrification scenario

Mix Scenario (MIX)Modest share of BEVNo FCEVs consideredRelatively high shares of PHEVs and conventional vehicles

Outcome: TtW CO2 emissions

7Fleet comp. A B CA, B & C

CO2 emission reduction vs 2015 by scenario and measure types

HE scenario

HEH scenario

Mix scenario

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

HE Opt HE Pess HEH Opt HEH Pess Mix Opt Mix Pess

CO2

Emis

sion

Red

ucti

on v

s. 2

015

[%]

40% of 1990 i.e. 280 CO2 Mt

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

EU28,2015

Ref2016,2050

EUCO30,2050

HE Base HEHBase

Mix Base HE Opt HE Pess HEH Opt HEH Pess Mix Opt Mix Pess

References Fleet Composition Effect, nomeasures

A&B&C

2050

Fle

et E

nerg

y Co

nsum

ptio

n (T

Wh)

GSL DSL LNG Electricity H2 Other

HE scenarioHEH Scenario

Mix scenario

Outcome: TtW energy consumption

8

References Fleet Composition Effect only, no measures Implementation of all measures

On the way to WtW emissions calculations

9

BEV/PHEV grid to wheel

electricity CO2 emissions (MtCO2)

Share of total scenario

tank to wheel CO2

emissions (%)

HE Base 80 30%HEH Base 73 40%Mix Base 41 7%HE Opt 33 29%HE Pess 54 28%HEH Opt 29 37%HEH Pess 48 38%Mix Opt 18 7%Mix Pess 27 6%

Upstream emissions of electricity production for electric vehicles are also calculated, using conventional knowledge.

2050 BEV and PHEV upstream CO2emissions

10

Fleet electrification can achieve important

TtW emissions reductions butinduces high

transport electrical energy

consumption.

Energy consumption

reduction depends

strongly on the successful

application of the technical

measures

Only a combined approach fostering

electrification and all types of

improvement measures can limit both CO2 emission

reduction and energy consumption.

The highest benefits to reduce

both energy consumption and CO2 emissions are expected from the vehicle efficiency improvements.

Main conclusions

Next steps – necessary study enlargement

11

Innovations should be better considered

Connected and automated drivingMaaSCar sharing modelsNew mobility patternsUser behaviour …

Extension of the study beyond TtW

Well to wheel impact or lifecycle implicationsProperties of the chemical fuels

Air pollutants

Regulated (CO, HC, NOx, PM/PN) and Non regulated (e.g. N2O, NH3, CH4 etc)

Upcoming challenges

12

Huge investments in R&I is needed to

improve the functionality of

e-mobility (costs, range …)

Electricity has to become ~zero carbon for a

maximum benefit from the fleet electrification

Fossil transport fuels have to be replaced

by renewable & sustainable PtX,

Biofuels or Hydrogen!

Important efforts will be needed for

recharging infrastructure deployment

Jette Krause, European Commission, Joint Research Center

Christian Thiel, European Commission, Joint Research Center

Dimitrios Tsokolis, Laboratory of Applied

Thermodynamics, Aristotle University

Thessaloniki

Christian Rota, University of Brighton

Andy Ward, Ricardo UK Ltd

Peter Prenninger, AVL List GmbH

Thierry Coosemans, Mobility, Logistics and

Automotive Technology Research Centre, Vrije

Universiteit Brussel (VUB)

Stephan Neugebauer, European Road Transport Research Advisory Council

(ERTRAC)

Wim Verhoeve, Emisia

13

Acknowledgments

Thank you !

EGVI

Keynote Speech:Outlook of the “World Energy Outlook 2018” report

4

Apostolos Petropoulos,International Energy Agency

© OECD/IEA 2018

What technology mix to achieve a zero to net carbon energy carriers in road transport

Energy4Transport Workshop

Apostolos Petropoulos, IEA

21 October 2019

© OECD/IEA 2018

Diverging picture for global oil demand growth

Global oil demand keeps rising to 106 mb/d by 2040; Petrochemicals, trucks and aviation dominate future oil demand growth

Change in oil demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario, 2017-2040

-6

-3

0

3

6 Power Buildings Other Cars Industry Shipping Aviation Trucks

Petro- chemicals

mb/d

Advanced economies Developing economies International bunkers Net change

© OECD/IEA 2018

Oil demand in transport sector

Cars are responsible for 40% of the increase in transport oil demand since 2000; Trucks and aviation drive up the future oil demand growth beyond 2017

Global oil demand by sector in the New Policies and Sustainable Development Scenarios

41%

30%

7%

12%

9% 2%

Cars Trucks Bus, two/three-wheelers Aviation Shipping Other

200039 mb/d

40%

29%

8%

12%

10%1%

201753 mb/d

35%

32%

6%

16%

11% 1%

204062 mb/d

28%

35%

7%

17%

11% 1%

Sustainable Development 204033 mb/d

© OECD/IEA 2018

A closer look at car fleet

Energy efficiency is the key mechanism that curbs oil consumption in cars

10

20

30

40

2017 NPS 2040

Global oil demand from cars in New Policies and Sustainable Development Scenarios

Fleet growth

Fuel efficiency

Natural gas

Biofuels

Electricity

Reductions

Increases mb/d

SDS 2040

© OECD/IEA 2018

What will the car of the future look like?

By 2040 there are no cars sold that have an efficiency worse than 6.5 litres/100 km in NPS. In SDS, three out of four new cars will be electric.

Global car sales

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2017 NPS 2040

SDS 2040

Electric Gas

< 4 4 - 6 6 - 8 > 8

Fuel efficiency (l/100km)

© OECD/IEA 2018

Policy framework (fuel economy standards, conventional car phase-out) and long term climate targets drive the electric cars uptake

EVs are on the way

100

200

300

2017 2025 2040

Mill

ion

cars

NPS

Other countries

India

United States

European Union

China 300

600

900

2025 2040SDS

© OECD/IEA 2018

Trucks in the New Policies Scenario

Efficiency alongside with improvements in logistics and fuel switching save nearly 8 mb/d

Oil demand from trucks and oil displacement in the New Policies Scenario

5

10

15

20

25

2017 2025 2040

mb/

dVehicle efficiency

Fuel switching

Logistics efficiency

Activity

Oil demand

Reductions

Increase

© OECD/IEA 2018

Decarbonising road freight

Energy efficiency remains the determinant factor for curbing oil demand growth

5

10

15

20

25

NPS 2040 SDS 2040

mb

/d Efficiency

Fuel switching

Oil demand

Reductions

© OECD/IEA 2018

What if road vehicles are electric?

Further electrification of transport needs to go hand in hand with cleaner electricity generation. Electric vehicles help better integration of variable renewable.

1 2 3 4 52017NPSFiESNPSFiESThousand TWhBusesTrucks2/3-WLDVsRailElectricity demand20252040 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0LDVs2/3-WBillion vehiclesElectric vehicle fleet in 2040 2 4 6 8 10TrucksBusesMillion vehiclesFiESNPS

Electric vehicle fleet in 2040 CO2 emissions NOX emissions

-1.8

-1.2

-0.6

0.0

0.6

FiES SDS

Gt C

O2

Indirect

Direct

Total

-1.8

-1.2

-0.6

0.0

FiES SDS

Mt N

O X

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0 LD

Vs

2/3-

W

Billi

on v

ehic

les

2

4

6

8

10

Truc

ks

Buse

s

Mill

ion

vehi

cles

Future is Electric Scenario

New Policies Scenario

Sustainable Development Scenario

© OECD/IEA 2018

Outlook for non-road modes: aviation

Today aviation emits nearly 3% of global CO2 emissions; annual fuel economy improvements double in SDS compared to NPS levels.

1 2 3 4 52017NPSFiESNPSFiESThousand TWhBusesTrucks2/3-WLDVsRailElectricity demand20252040 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0LDVs2/3-WBillion vehiclesElectric vehicle fleet in 2040 2 4 6 8 10TrucksBusesMillion vehiclesFiESNPS

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

ktoe

/bRT

KNPS

SDS

Energy Intensity of aviationEnergy Intensity of aviation

© OECD/IEA 2018

Outlook for non-road modes: maritime

Growth in international shipping activity and fuel consumption in New Policies Scenario

Rate of growth in international shipping activity is double the growth in fuel consumption

40

80

120

160

200

240

2018 2040

OECD Non-OECD

Shipping activity

Trill

ion

t-km

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2018 2040

General cargo Container ships Other types of ships Oil tankers Bulk carriers

Fuel demand

Mbo

e/d

3% per year 1.5% per year

© OECD/IEA 2018

Pathways for decarbonising shipping sector

Energy efficiency is key to drive down emissions

Besides efficiency, biofuels and hydrogen contribute to more than 40% for reaching IMO GHG emissions target

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

2000 2018 2050

Gt C

O₂

54% Efficiency

41% Fuel switching

5% Other

NPS CO2SDS CO2

© OECD/IEA 2018

World Energy Outlook 2019 – 13 November 2019

� Full update of scenarios and analysis, covering all fuels and technologies

� Special focus region: Africa, analysing the current trends and the big growth potential.

� Detailed analysis of offshore wind, discussing evolution of technologies & costs.

� Consideration of prospects for oil & gas infrastructure, how its use is affected by & can be made more compatible with a changing energy system. Incorporates insights from workstreams on hydrogen, renewable natural gas & CCUS

© OECD/IEA 2018

iea.org/weo iea.org/digital

EGVI5

MODERATION: Neville Jackson, Ricardo

Patrick Klintbom, RISE

Jean-Marc Sohier, CONCAWE

Kai Tullius,DG Move

David Bothe, Frontier

Economics

Staffan Lundgren, Volvo

Panel Discussion: Renewable fuels

Reproduction permitted with due © Concaweacknowledgement

EGVIAEnergy4Transport Workshop

21 Oct 2019 – Brussels

Jean-Marc Sohier – Science Director

© Concawe 2

To conduct research to provide impartial scientific information,in order to:

• scientific understanding

• Assist the development of technically feasible and costeffective policies and legislation

• Allow informed decision making and cost effectivelegislative compliance by Association members.

Concawe – Environmental Science for European Refining

Concawe Membership

Concawe represents 40 Member Companies ≈ 100% of EU Refining

Open to companies owning refining capacity in the EU

Concawe mission

© Concawe 3

Energy storage – Limitations of batteriesA look into transport modes

Sour

ce:

Conc

awe

own

asse

ssm

ent

base

d on

dif

fere

nt m

odel

da

tash

eets

, JE

C, R

icar

do d

ata

(Mas

s EV

stu

dy f

or C

onca

we)

Practical

Impractical

© Concawe 4

A Clean Planet for all (DG CLIMA)Eight scenarios to achieve GHG emissions reductions between 80% and 100% by 2050 vs 1990) –

Alternative fuels recognized as key players

80% reduction

-100%

© Concawe 5

Light Duty. Mass EV vs Low Carbon Liquid fuels. The two main scenarios feature significant electrification and use of low carbon fuels (biofuels and eFuels)

(*) ≈70 Mtoe/y Low Carbon fuel used in Light duty segmentSource: Ricardo (2018)

© Concawe 6

• All scenarios reduce GHG emissions and meet reduction objectives at lower overall cost than BAU. • Total costs to the end user are similar for the High EV and Low C Fuels scenario when adjusted to maintain Net Fiscal Revenue. • Overall TCO to end-users, for the average vehicle, reduces in both scenarios compared to BAU.

Embedded emissions (production and disposal of vehicle/batteries) increase their importance through the period representing 8% of the total CO2 emissions in 2015 to 25% by 2050.

Overall picture - Total Fleet (LDV) Total Parc Annual Costs to End-users (LDV)

Source: Ricardo (2018)

Light Duty. Mass EV vs Low Carbon Liquid fuels.

© Concawe 7

… and for Heavy Duty Vehicles?

Different pathways to achieve significant GHG savings by 2050

Source: FEV (2019)

• Combustion engines represent at least 47% of the vehicle stock in 2050 • Battery and fuel cell electric trucks as well as liquid fuels from renewables are relevant to meet the ambitions in all scenarios.• Significant investments and demands swift action as well as joint collaboration between fleet operators, vehicle manufacturers,

technology suppliers, energy providers are necessary.

© Concawe 8

Vision 2050: The refinery as an ENERGY HUB…

… within an INDUSTRIAL CLUSTER,

Reducing emissions within the site + the final use of our products

EGVI5

MODERATION: Neville Jackson, Ricardo

Patrick Klintbom, RISE

Jean-Marc Sohier, CONCAWE

Kai Tullius,DG Move

David Bothe, Frontier

Economics

Staffan Lundgren, Volvo

Panel Discussion: Renewable fuels

1frontier economics │ Confidential

The transport sector is an integral part of the energy system …… and its defossilisation necessarily involves renewable fuels!

Src: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/sankey/sankey.html

Total Electricity consumption EU:

2,800 TWhTotal Oil products in

Transport: 3,500 TWh

Primary product.8,800 TWh

Imports17,800 TWh

Recovered andrecycled products18.9 TWh

Import dependency:Gros: 66%Net: 55%

Available from all sources26,800 TWh

Direct carry-over9,700 TWh

Available after transformation22,700 TWh

Final consumption13,500 TWh

Final energy consumption12,300 TWh

Transformation17,100 TWh

Transformation losses4,100 TWh

Exports6,800 TWh

Final non-energy consumption1,200 TWh

Industry3,000 TWh

Other sectors5,500 TWh

Transport3,800 TWh

Rail76 TWhRoad3,600 TWhDomest aviat71 TWhDomest navig59 TWhPipeline trans21 TWhNon-specified13 TWh

Other2,400 TWh

Total Electricity consumption EU:

2,800 TWhTotal Oil products in

Transport: 3,500 TWh

Energy balance flow for EU28 (2017)

EGVI5

MODERATION: Neville Jackson, Ricardo

Patrick Klintbom, RISE

Jean-Marc Sohier, CONCAWE

Kai Tullius,DG Move

David Bothe, Frontier

Economics

Staffan Lundgren, Volvo

Panel Discussion: Renewable fuels

Volvo GroupVolvo GroupStaffan Lundgren, PE, TE&S1 2019-10-15

The technology exist– will it be profitable for the customer?

More expensive than today:• All zero emission path: it will be more expensive

than todaySociety support: • Customer need to afford, infrastructure need to be

developed, support from the society needed if new technology should take of in numbers.

Sustainable perspective: Well to Wheel:• IEA claims: In 2040 we still use ~2/3 fossil energy

and ~1/3 renewable om the global level. 2050 it will be less fossil, but still significant levels.

• We need therefore learn to use both renewable and fossil energy carriers that produces a minimum CO2 footprint. E.g., Methane, electricity and hydrogen

Bio and e-fuels: • Drop-in fuels yes, for immediate CO2 reduction• Dedicated Bio and E-fuels: The level if diversity kills a

large breakthrough. Selection of one or two major CO2 reduction with H2

Coffee Break#Energy4Transport

EGVI7

MODERATION: Matthias Brendel, AVL

Mateja Poredos, Innogy

Pepinj Vloemans, Fastned

Frank Breust,BMW Group

Maher Chebbo, ETIP-SNET

Panel Discussion: Electrification

EGVI1

EGVI2

Closing remarksStephan Neugebauer

8

Follow us on:www.egvi.eu

Thank you for your attention !

9

@EGVIA_EU

EGVIA

EGVIA