Cities In the WorldA new Perspective on Urbanisation

16 June 2020

@OECD_local #ChampionMayors

Lamia Kamal-Chaoui | DirectorOECD Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities

• Two consistent, global definitions of cities and metropolitan areas

• Fills a void: no consistent existing global definitions

Harmonised definitions shed new light on urbanisation

Where do people live?

• City populations have doubled over the last 40 years and will increase from 48% to 55% of the world’s population by 2050.

What does the future hold for city and rural populations?

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Cities Towns & semi-dense areas Rural areas

Population (billions), 1975-2050

City populations are projected to grow from 3.5 billion in 2015 to 5 billion in 2050.

5 billion

3.5 billion

+40%

1. Determines which metropolitan areas grew and declined, and why.

2. Examines how the urban system changes with economic development.

3. Analyses differences in quality of life across different areas.

4. Assesses the changing shape of cities and its impact on service delivery and sustainable development.

Focus of Cities of the World report

Metropolitan Growth

Large metropolitan areas grow fastest

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

50k-250k 250k-1mil 1mil-5mil 5mil+

Annual growth - metropolitan areas (2000 – 2015)

Growth - metropolitan areas

This exacerbates challenges for:

• transport provision

• affordable housing

• pollution

Population growth is increasingly concentrated in large metropolitans.

One-fifth of metropolitan areas in the world are shrinking

decline since 2005

decline by 2050

20%

30% Looking forward

Currently

Development &Urban systems

Countries with higher GDP per capita have larger proportions of the population living in metropolitan areas.

More metropolitan population in richer countries

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Low-income countries Lower-middle countries Upper-middle countries High-income countries

population < 250K 250K < population < 1M 1M < population < 5M 5M < population

Share of metropolitan population

Metropolitan structure matters for within-country regional disparities:

• Regions with larger metropolitan areas tend to be richer.

• Regional income disparities are greater in middle-income countries than in the poorest and the richest countries.

Urbanisation is linked to regional economic disparities

Life in Cities

Cities offer the highest quality of life

• Evidence from 111 countries shows that city residents are more satisfied with their lives.

• This trend explains why people continue to be attracted by cities, driving urbanisation.

16%

17%

19%

% satisfied with life

Well-being

Rural areas Towns and semi-dense areas Cities

Residents in cities enjoy better living conditions:

• Fewer health problems, better access to services (digitalisation)

What explains the differences in quality of life?

15% 16%

20%

% victims of theft

Insecurity

Rural areas Towns and semi-dense areas Cities

79% 75%63%

% satisfied with air quality

Air quality

Rural areas Towns and semi-dense areas Cities

31%28%

25%

% with health problems

Health-problems

Rural areas Towns and semi-dense areas Cities

76%

82%

85%

% with recent internet use

Digitalisation

Rural areas Towns and semi-dense areas Cities

But cities also face:

• More crime and violence, urban ills (air pollution, obesity, stress)

Shape of cities and sustainable development

How do cities grow?

• Globally, cities have

continuously become

denser over the past 40

years.

• Policy-makers need to

accompany the increasing

population density with

better access to services

and affordable housing.

65% 64%71%

35% 36%29%

1975-1990 1990-2000 2000-2015

Decomposing average annual population growth in cities, 1975-2015

Densification Expansion

The growth & increasing density of cities raise serious

challenges

• The growth and

increasing density of

cities raises their

exposure to climate

change risks.

• In cities, risks associated

with sea-level rise has

been increasing.

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

Cities Towns and Semi-denseAreas

Rural areas

Average population growth in areas at risk of floods, 2000-15

0-5 m above sea level not at risk

The way forward

OECD and EC setting a new benchmark for

sub-national statistics

Key instrument for urban policy and SDG

monitoring: better data for better lives

Implications for future OECD work

Important topics for future work:

Shrinking cities & managing decline smartly

Managing urbanisation with sustainable development

Specific challenges of intermediary cities

Digital and physical infrastructure investment needs in rural areas

VISIT OUR NEW REGIONAL STATISTICS HUBwww.oecd.org/regional/regional-statistics/

VISIT OUR NEW REGIONAL STATISTICS HUBwww.oecd.org/regional/regional-statistics/

THANK YOU

Lamia.KAMAL-CHAOUI@oecd.org | Twitter: @lamia_k_c

Website: www.oecd.org/cfe/ | Twitter: @OECD_local | LinkedIn: linkedin.com/company/oecd-local