160604-future of robotics_presented

Presentation

Amazon Campus Munich, June 4, 2016 Joerg Seufert

The future of robotics – building a growth story for tomorrow

QX Leadership Conference

2 160604-Future of Robotics_presented.pptx

Contents Page

A. Setting the scene | Robots in the Industrie 4.0 playing field 3

B. Industrial robots – what's going on? 9

B. Co-bots – a new species evolves … 16

C. Service bots – robots taking over … 23

E. Q&A 27


A. Setting the scene | Robots in the Industrie 4.0 playing field


The ongoing developments in the global robotics market will irreversibly change society and the way we work

"I saw huge rising numbers of demand in all fields of robotics and automation, 10-15%. I see an increasing market share of the robot – first in addition to workers, then replacing them", Italian Customer

Selected market feedback

Europe/North America China

"The robotic companies currently cannot fulfil the global demand – There is more demand than supply. The market in Europe is more saturated",

German Robotics Company

"Automation solutions will be influenced by environ-mental and eco-sustainability factors. Growing >15% in Europe within the next 4-5 years.",

Italian Competitor

"I am convinced that the robot market will continue to grow at >10% for the next five years", German Competitor

"We expect that the US robot market will grow at >15% p.a. – 3D printing will be the future of the robot sector", US Competitor

Source: Interviews with market participants; Roland Berger

"To implement 'China Manufacturing 2025' strategy, huge amount of resources will be invested into automation for all kinds of manufacturing fields", Chinese customer

"To save labor cost and improve work quality, more industries will use automation equipment; we expect the market to grow 20-30% per year for next 5 years",

Chinese competitor

"Robot sales increased by nearly 30% worldwide. China gains some market share",

German Competitor in China

"The China robot market is expected to grow 5 times bigger than today's market (2015) in the next 10 years",

Japanese Competitor in China

"In answering 'China Manufacturing 2025', many companies are upgrading their manufacturing equipment/systems, the growth should be over 20% annually for next 5 years",

German Customer in China


Mechanization, electrification and computerization has already influenced our working world radically – Industrie 4.0 is the next step

Development stages of industrial manufacturing

Source: Bitkom/Fraunhofer, DFKI, Roland Berger

1784 Mechanical weaving loom

Introduction of mechanical produc-tion assets based on water and steam power

Time

First industrial revolution

Impact of each Revolution

> Introduction of new products and means of producing existing ones

> Disruption of the competitive status quo (both within and between countries and enterprises)

> New requirements to workforce and infrastructure

1923 Introduction of a "moving" assembly line at Ford Motors

Introduction of mass production based on division of labor and electrical energy

Second industrial revolution

1969 First programmable logic controller (PLC)

Introduction of electronics and IT for higher automatization of production

Third industrial revolution

2016 Real time, self opti-mizing connected systems

Fourth industrial revolution?

So far < 10% advanced


Industrie 4.0 is the full integration and digitalization of the industrial value creation

Source: Plattform Industrie 4.0, MIT Sloan Management Review, Roland Berger

Industrie 4.0 – Overview

> Digital transformation refers to the changes associated with the application of digital technologies in all aspects of human society

> Industrie 4.0 is the industrial application of the concepts applied in the digital transformation, key elements are:

– Complete connectivity with real-time ability

– Decentralized, intelligent and self optimizing/ organizing

– Modular and reconfigurable

> Assessment of Industrie 4.0 impact needs to take analogies from digital transformation and specifics of the manufacturing industry into account

> The digital transformation in the consumer goods sector is much more advanced than the industrial application

Digital transformation

Industrie 4.0

Mobile devices

E-Commerce

Car sharing

Apps

Contactless pay

Home robotics

Wearables

Smart Home

Cloud data

Smart handbooks

Private robots

Self-learning robots

Predictive Maintenance

Self-optimizing systems


In the future "Factory 4.0" cyber physical systems will connect the industrial value chain end-to-end and beyond

Source: Roland Berger

SUPPLIERS

PLANT OF THE FUTURE A

3D PRINTING / ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING

SENSORS

NANOTECHNOLOGY / ADVANCED MATERIALS

> Zero default/deviation > Reactivity > Traceability > Predictability

> Scrap elimination > Mass customization > Rapid prototyping

> Smart value added products > Technical differentiation > Connectivity

ROBOT

CLOUD COMPUTING

> Stronger protection for internet based manufacturing

> Technology products with longer life cycle

CYBERSECURITY > Give sense to complexity > Creativity > Collaborative manufacturing

> Cyber Physical Systems (CPS) > Numerical command

– Full automation – Totally interconnected systems – Machine to machine communication

LOGISTICS 4.0

> Fully integrated supply chain

> Interconnected systems > Perfect coordination

BIG DATA

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING

SYSTEMS

CLIENTS

AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE

> Customer & marketing intimacy > Flexibility > Perfect match with customer's

needs with production mass efficiency

> On demand manufacturing

MASS CUSTOMIZATION

INTERNET OF THINGS

> Object tagging > Internet-object

communication via low power radio

> Real time data capture > Optimized stocks > Reduced wastes

> Real time - Autonomy - Productivity > Full transparency (contextualization,

comprehensiveness, collaborative robot) on data reporting

> Flow optimization > Increased security > Lower costs

RESOURCES OF THE FUTURE

WIND ALTERNATIVE / NON CONVENTIONAL SOLAR GEOTHERMIC

> Clean and renewable energies everywhere

> Energy Storage > Alternative raw materials

Factory 4.0 – Overview


Strategy "Champion 2025" | 3rd Steering Committee | 10th March 2016

Robots, co-bots and service bots – building tomorrow's business by enabling human robot collaboration and self-steered assembly

Source: Roland Berger

Today Tomorrow

Industrial Robots Human Machine Collaboration/collaborative robots (co-bots) for handling applications

Service robots for logistics/ mobile platforms (mobile manipulators)

1 2 3


B. Industrial robots – what's going on?


On the Hannover Fair a demonstrator of a fully integrated, self-steering assembly system had been presented

Use case: Open Integrated Factory

Features

Source: SAP; Festo; Roland Berger

Integration of assembly technology, cyber-physical devices, IT and connectivity into a self-steering production system

> Demonstrator line TV-remote controls and metering devices

> Integrated "top floor to shop floor" IT

> Connectivity on automation level based on open message & technology standards

> Fully integrated end-to-end data stream from customer order to parameter transfer to PLC

> No host required as control level between order mgmt. and assembly line (i.e. no double data storage. 100% data integrity)

> Products carry data on their specific configuration on RFID tag and communicate directly with de-central intelligent workstations

> Line energy optimization with smart metering & grid technology

> Sensor data on workstation level used for predictive maintenance

Achievements

> Full automated batch 1 assembly of different products in multiple variants

> Mass manufacturing benefits in production and control but individualized execution

> Demonstrator to study integration challenges upfront to application

Concept

Partner

companies


The market for robots will grow at 19% p.a. globally – Highest growth expected in China

Industrial robot demand development by region and industry, 2013-2018F [units k]

78115

19439

59

104

25

39

38

59

43

27

27

181

2013 2015

264

Other

439

2018F

Automotive

Chemical/ Plastic

Metal/

Machinary

Electronics

20 17

4668

11835

51

83

26

36

57

75

109

181

2013

181

Rest

of World

China

Europe

439

2018F

North

America

264

2015

Source: MarketsandMarkets; Roland Berger

Total

c.16%

c.17%

c.21%

c.19%

c.16%

c.19%

CAGR 2015-2018F

c.19%

CAGR 2015-2018F

Total

c.17%

c.18%

c.20%

c.19%

Historical Forecast Historical Forecast

By industry By region


Strategy "Champion 2025" | 5th Steering Committee | April 7, 2016

Growth in China is further fueled by a decreasing payback period for robots with declining unit prices and increasing labor cost

Source: Robotic Market Study

> In 2013, falling investment cost (purchasing prices) for robots and rising wages approached in inflection point for a payback period of 2 years, making robots attractive for Chinese SMEs

> Substitution of human labor becomes more attractive from an economical point of view

Net staff replaced by 1 robot: 3, Depreciation: 10 year replacement cycle assumed, Maintenance cost: 10% of purchase price p.a. assumed

73 80 93 110 125 158 180

459499 490

409359

263 236 213135

3641495045

Sav. Inv.

289

26

134

9

Inv.

395

Sav.

120

10

Sav.

450

5.2

1.3 1.7

2.2

3.7

Sav.

105

Inv.

12

Inv.

539

Sav.

92

12

Inv.

549

Sav.

84

11

Inv.

504

6

Inv.

260

24

8.7 11.6

11.8

Sav.

185

5

Inv.

234

21

Sav.

164

Labor cost saved p.a. Depreciation saved Maintenance cost Av. Robot price Cash payback period in years

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Example from the Chinese market – Robot cost and annual labor cost savings [RMB k]



APAC will further expand its dominance in the industrial automation and robotics markets

Source: IHS; IFR; Roland Berger

Regional split of industrial automation and robotics [%]

Industrial automation equip. Revenues, today

Industrial robotics Installed base, today

Industrial robotics New deliveries, today

APAC: 41% APAC: 53% APAC: 61%

RoW/

Unspecified

2% Americas

17%

Europe 28%

Other APAC

8% S. Korea

12%

China 13%

Japan

20%

RoW/

Unspecified

5% Americas

14%

Europe 20%

Other APAC

12%

S. Korea

11%

Japan 13%

China

25%

9%

Japan

APAC 32%

Americas

25%

EMEA

34%



Key trends by industry

Industry Trends Impact

Automotive > Retooling for new car models, capacity expansions, new materials, energy efficiency, modernization and Industrie 4.0

> Increased penetration of automation in the automotive assembly process (human robotic collaboration as driver)

Electronics > Increased automation of production and assembly of electronics parts due to high precision needs (micro meter)

> Growing market for high resolution, touch sensitive, and light displays where automated production is important due to precision and productivity

> Recovering investments in the solar industry where automation is strong driver for competitiveness

> Rising market of electro mobility requiring investments into cost efficient, high quality and high precision battery production

Metal > Increased automation of processes with extremely unhealthy working conditions (e.g. due to high temperatures, dirtiness)

Source: IFR 2015; Roland Berger



Plastics &

chemicals

> Expanding production capacities driven by increased demand for light weight plastics in order to increase energy efficiency and increased use of plastics as building and packaging material

> Increased demand for carbon composites which requires new production processes

Source: IFR 2015; Roland Berger

Food &

Beverage

> Increasing diversity of products and demand for high quality require more flexible production

> Increased modernization and quality improvements of production processes in emerging markets due to growing demand for non-perishable food

> Demanding sanitation and environmental requirements

Key trends by industry

Industry Trends Impact


C. Co-bots – a new species evolves …



The development of co-bots represents a solution to a hurdle in human robot collaboration

> Robots which work along-side with worker w/o fence

> Assistance for day to day job of worker

> Robot can take over hazardous or ergonomically difficult tasks

> Robot can improve productivity and quality

> Robots are flexible and can switch workplaces quickly

Source: Efficiency Associates; IFR 2015; Roland Berger

Opportunities

Threats/risks

> Automation of processes where traditional robots were not applicable and/or cost efficient

> Increase in production flexibility enabling customization/shorter product life-cycles

> Development of safety standards

> Development of advanced sensing and gripping – "human like abilities"

Collaborative robots (co-bots) – Overview and prospects

Concept


BMW obtains greater efficiency and flexibility by interactive robots working with human workers in its factories

Source: BMW, MIT, Roland Berger

Industrie 4.0 solution by

> Robots have been a part of automotive manufacturing for decades

> Key issues: – Manufacturing

robots are powerful and precise, but it’s never been safe for humans to work alongside them

– A significant number of final assembly tasks, in auto plants and elsewhere, were performed almost entirely by hand

> A new generation of safer, more user-friendly robots works more closely alongside humans as a team

> Robots can help people in production at hand and remove them hard physical labor, thus increase production efficiency

> In an Automotive context, collaborative robotics can utilize its power and mechanical accuracy and to support human workforce healthy for a long time

Direct human-machine coop. in serial production

Human Assembly

Robot Assembly

Starting point

> With assembly cost further reducing, Tier-1 suppliers will even more increasingly need to focus on full solutions rather than components

> Suppliers could potentially differentiate by designing products in an assembly friendly way

Impact

Use case: Interactive robots


Google has developed a software using artificial intelligence to teach robots how to steer and control picking

Use case: Artificial intelligence

//Schunk/hpw1/DATEN/WERKLEITUNG/HAUSEN/Klaiber/Präsentationen/20160314_Digitalisierung_Roland_Berger/IMG_3054.MOV


Strategy "Champion 2025" | 7th Steering Committee | May 12, 2016

There are two types of co-bots: Light weight robots and two arm robots

Source: IFR; Company Websites; Roland Berger

Co-bot types

Light weight robots

> Enable man and machine to work closely and safely together

> Are equipped with enhanced vision and sensor technology

> Provide flexibility and intuitive and user-friendly programming

> Can be easily moved to another workstation and take over another task

Two arm robots

> Work hand-in-hand with people on the same tasks

> Have safety functionality but a risk assessment to be made for each application

> Have up to 15 axes which can handle payloads up to 40 kg

> Combine human-like movement with robotic speed, dexterity, and repeatability



The market for co-bots is expected to grow significantly in the next years reaching approximately 100 k units in 2025

Market forecast for handling co-bots [# k]

3

1

2021

Material

Handling

25

50

37

3 2

2015

1

CAGR +67%

2025

7

1 1

Machine Tool

Handling

CAGR +28%

CAGR +42%

19

13

Warehousing

9

7

19

7

100

2018

Pick and Place

3

Source: Efficacy Associates; Roland Berger

Collaborative robots (co-bots) – Market potential

> Average co-bot price is 40% below average price for industrial robot (USD 29 k vs. USD 47 k)

> Market can be segmented in premium co-bots (EUR 50-100 k) and simple easy-to use co-bots (EUR 10-20 k) which stand for the major share of the market

> Market dominated by start-up Universal Robots with ~50% market share

> Market leaders for industrial robots like KUKA, FANUC, Yaskawa entered the market but have difficulties due to premium price competition (factor 2-3 compared to UR)


Strategy "Champion 2025" | 7th Steering Committee | May 12, 2016

Automotive is the dominant industry using co-bots with the USA, China and Japan as the key markets

Source: Efficacy Associates; Roland Berger

Co-bot market by industry and region

Others

18% Life Sciences

2%

Food &

Consumer

Goods 3%

Metal 8%

Automotive

29%

Automotive

Components

40%

5%

8%

USA

7% 14%

25%

20%

13%

Germany

Other

Americas

Korea

China

Japan

Other EMEA

Other APAC

8%

Regional split 2015 [%] Industry split 2015 [%]


D. Service bots – robots taking over …


> AGVs (Automatic Guided Vehicles) are segmented into – Carrier types – Fork types – Tow types – Mobile manipulation types

> Decreasing robot arm cost push demand for mobile manipulators in logistics

> Automotive increasingly integrates mobile manipulators in their lean/agile manufacturing concepts which replace conveyor belt and tact and to secure JIT/JIS deliveries

> Main benefit of robotic solutions for factory logistics is the reduction of the need for manual workers

Service robotics is a broad area – potential use aims at facilitating or substituting human labor

Source: IFR Service Robotics 2015; Roland Berger

Mobile Platforms in general use are customizable multi-purpose platforms (stand-alone components for the design of highly customized service robot solutions) which also include gripping applications

Service robotic types

Field robotics

Prof. Cleaning

Insp. & Maintenance

Mobile Platforms in general use

Logistics Systems

Medical robots

Other

Defense robots


Digitization of manufacturing and technology advancements drive the demand for automatic guided vehicles (AGVs)

Source: IFR Service Robotics 2015

Technology

advance-

ments

> Performance and flexibility increase of fully autonomous navigation without installed markers or beacons

> Increased uptimes through smaller recharging cycles as energy storage technology improves (batteries, super capacitors)

> Increasing positive reputation of AGVs usage (excellent Mean Time Between Failure MTBS rates and dependability), ease of use, etc.

Growth drivers for AGVs

Driver Description

Digitization > AGVs depend on digital data for their routing and missions

> Breakthrough of digitization and networking environments as addressed by initiatives like Industrie 4.0, Internet of Things/of Services, Industrial Internet push the acceptance of AGVs in target environments

> AGVs can be seen as typical cyber-physical systems


The relevant service robotic market currently has a volume of EUR 300 m and is projected to grow with a CAGR of 24%

111

459

2017F

61

389

450

363

570

2016F

298

2015F

223

280

18

2014

33

330 179

214

2013

172

9 7

CAGR +24%

Logistics

2018F

Mobile

Platforms in

general use

Source: IFR Service Robotics 2015; Roland Berger

1) Includes only segments Logistics and mobile platforms

Professional service robot market1) [EUR m]


E. Q&A

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160604-future of robotics_presented

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