18 june 2020 results review 4qfy20 indraprastha gas gas... · 2020-06-18 · 18 june 2020 results...

18 June 2020 Results Review 4QFY20

Indraprastha Gas

HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO> & Thomson Reuters

Blip in volume growth

Our ADD recommendation on Indraprastha Gas with a TP of INR 520 is

based on (1) Volume growth of 16% CAGR over FY21-23E, (2) Portfolio of

mature, semi-mature and new Geographical Areas (GA) and (3) Pricing power

as evident in 4% CAGR growth in per unit EBITDA over FY17-20 to INR

6.5/scm.

View on the result: Volumes and EBITDA were in-line with our estimates

Volumes: IGL’s total volume grew merely 0.5% YoY to 6.2mmscmd

(estimated 6.0mmscmd), dragged by 1.4% YoY drop in CNG vols to

4.5mmscmd. This is the first instance in 4 years that YoY volume growth has

fallen to single digits. PNG volumes increased to 1.7mmscmd (+6.0% YoY).

Volumes were adversely affected by the lockdown in the last week of

March.

Margins: Per unit gross spread expanded by INR 1.5 YoY to INR 12.8/scm.

This is attributable to part retention of the benefit of falling RMC.

Consequently, per unit EBITDA expanded by INR 1 YoY to INR 6.6/scm (vs.

INR 6.5/5.8 per scm in FY20/FY19).

Outlook on volumes: We expect volume to dip by 10.0% YoY to

5.8mmscmd in FY21 given a poor CNG volume outlook in 1HFY21.

Thereafter, blended volumes should recover to 7.1mmscmd in FY22 (+21.7%

YoY).

Outlook on margins/EBITDA: Per unit EBITDA should dip marginally by

5.8% YoY from the current levels to INR 6.1/scm in FY21 with the fall in

volumes. Subsequently, per unit EBITDA should bounce back to INR

6.5/scm in FY22 (+7.7% YoY). In-line with per unit EBITDA and volumes,

absolute consol EBITDA should dip 15.4% YoY in FY21 to INR 13bn and

subsequently grow 31.1% YoY in FY22 to INR 17bn driven by a robust

volume outlook and healthy per unit margins.

View on the balance sheet: IGL’s cash jumped 15.2% YoY to INR 22bn.

Although the excess cash is dragging RoE and RoCE, it puts the company in

comfortable position to meet its financial commitments and capex needs.

Change in estimates: We raise our FY21 EPS estimate by 9.7% to INR 12.7

driven by higher than estimated (1) Per unit EBITDA margin (+2.4% to INR

6.1/scm), and (2) Volumes (+7.4% to 5.8mmscmd) as recovery in CNG

volumes would be faster in 2HFY21. For FY22, we cut our EPS estimate by

27.5% to INR 17.0/sh led by a gradual recovery in volumes and per unit

margins.

DCF based valuation: Our TP is INR 520 (WACC 10%, Terminal growth rate

3.0%). The stock is trading at 24.8x FY22 EPS.

Standalone Financial Summary Year Ending

March (INR bn)

4Q

FY20

3Q

FY20

QoQ

(%)

4Q

FY19

YoY

(%) FY19* FY20P* FY21E* FY22E*

Revenues 15.53 16.64 (6.7) 15.43 0.6 57.65 64.85 54.56 68.48

EBITDA 3.77 3.92 (3.8) 3.31 13.7 12.68 15.20 12.86 16.85

APAT 2.53 2.84 (10.7) 2.26 12.4 7.55 10.23 8.86 11.88

AEPS (INR) 3.6 4.1 -10.7 3.2 12.4 12.0 16.8 14.6 19.1

P/E (x)

39.4 28.2 32.5 24.8

EV/EBITDA (x)

24.7 20.4 23.9 18.0

RoE (%)

21.2 24.3 17.9 20.5

Source: Company, HSIE Research| * Consolidated

ADD

CMP (as on 17 Jun 2020) INR 474

Target Price INR 520

NIFTY 9,881

KEY

CHANGES OLD NEW

Rating ADD ADD

Price Target INR 504 INR 520

EPS % FY21E FY22E

+9.7 -27.5

KEY STOCK DATA

Bloomberg code IGL IN

No. of Shares (mn) 700

MCap (INR bn) / ($ mn) 332/4,353

6m avg traded value (INR mn) 1,577

52 Week high / low INR 534/284

STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)

3M 6M 12M

Absolute (%) 25.6 9.7 42.3

Relative (%) 16.1 28.6 56.3

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)

Mar-20 Dec-19

Promoters 45.00 45.00

FIs & Local MFs 16.75 15.74

FPIs 22.77 24.49

Public & Others 15.48 14.77

Pledged Shares 0.0 0.0

Source : BSE

Harshad Katkar

[email protected]

+91-22-6171-7319

Nilesh Ghuge

[email protected]

+91-22-6171-7342

Divya Singhal

[email protected]

+91-22-6171-7348

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:%[email protected]

Page | 2

Indraprastha Gas: Results Review 4QFY20

Quarterly Financial Snapshot (Standalone)

(INR bn) 4QFY20 3QFY20 QoQ (%) 4QFY19 YoY (%) FY20 FY19 YoY (%)

Net Sales 15.53 16.64 (6.7) 15.43 0.6 64.85 57.62 12.6

Raw material and

Traded Goods 8.26 9.41 (12.2) 9.06 (8.8) 36.79 33.97 8.3

Employee Expenses 0.35 0.44 (19.8) 0.47 (24.9) 1.52 1.43 6.4

Other Operating

Expenses 3.15 2.88 9.3 2.59 21.5 11.35 9.68 17.2

EBITDA 3.77 3.92 (3.8) 3.31 13.7 15.20 12.54 21.2

Depreciation 0.66 0.64 2.2 0.52 25.4 2.52 2.01 25.4

EBIT 3.11 3.28 (5.0) 2.79 11.6 12.67 10.53 20.4

Other Income 0.31 0.51 (38.4) 0.51 (39.1) 1.56 1.49 4.8

Interest 0.03 0.02 32.8 0.00 13,250.0 0.08 0.02 296.1

PBT 3.40 3.76 (9.7) 3.30 2.9 14.16 12.00 18.0

Provision for tax 0.86 0.93 (6.6) 1.05 (17.5) 2.79 4.13 (32.5)

RPAT 2.53 2.84 (10.7) 2.26 12.4 11.37 7.87 44.5

Adjustment for

deferred tax - NA - NA 0.72 - NA

APAT 2.53 2.84 (10.7) 2.26 12.4 10.64 7.87 35.3

REPS (INR/sh) 3.62 4.06 (10.7) 3.22 12.4 16.24 11.24 44.5

Adjusted EPS

(INR/sh) 3.62 4.06 (10.7) 3.22 12.4 15.21 11.24 35.3

Source: Company, HSIE Research

Margin Analysis (Standalone)

4QFY20 3QFY20

QoQ

(bps) 4QFY19

YoY

(bps) FY20 FY19 YoY (bps)

Raw material as % of Net

Sales 53.22 56.54 (332.6) 58.72 (550.4) 56.73 58.96 (222.9)

Employee Expenses as % of

Net Sales 2.26 2.62 (36.9) 3.02 (76.7) 2.34 2.47 (13.5)

Other Operating Expenses as %

of Net Sales 20.26 17.29 297.2 16.79 347.4 17.49 16.80 69.5

EBITDA Margin (%) 24.27 23.54 72.3 21.47 279.7 23.43 21.76 166.9

Adjusted PAT Margin (%) 16.32 17.06 (73.8) 14.62 170.1 16.41 13.65 276.0

Tax Rate (%) 25.4 24.6 85.4 31.7 (627.3) 24.8 34.4 (963.5)


Key Operational Data (Volume)- Standalone

4QFY20 3QFY20

QoQ

(%) 4QFY19

YoY

(%) FY20 FY19

YoY

(%)

Total Sales Volumes (mmscm) 567 616 (7.9) 564 0.5 2,357 2,154 9.4

CNG 409 452 (9.5) 415 (1.4) 1,738 1,602 8.50

PNG 158 164 (3.5) 149 6.0 619 552 12.10

Total Volume (mmscmd) 6.23 6.70 (6.9) 6.27 (0.6) 6.44 5.90 9.1

CNG 4.49 4.91 (8.6) 4.61 (2.5) 4.75 4.39 8.2

PNG 1.74 1.78 (2.5) 1.66 4.9 1.69 1.51 11.8


Page | 3


Key Operational Data (Margins)- Standalone

INR/scm 4QFY20 3QFY20 QoQ (%) 4QFY19 YoY (%) FY20 FY19 YoY (%)

Realisation 27.38 27.02 1.3 27.35 0.1 27.52 26.72 3.0

Gross Spread 12.81 11.74 9.1 11.29 13.5 11.91 10.97 8.6

Opex 6.17 5.38 14.6 5.42 13.8 5.46 5.15 6.1

EBITDA Spreads 6.64 6.36 4.5 5.87 13.1 6.45 5.82 10.8

APAT 4.47 4.61 (3.0) 4.00 11.8 4.80 3.65 31.7


Historical Volume trend- Standalone Historical Margin trend- Standalone



11

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4.5

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1Q

FY

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Rs/scmGross margin EBITDA margin APAT margin

3.7

3.9

3.9

4.0

4.1

4.4

4.4

4.6

4.7

4.9

4.9

4.5

1.2

1.3

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1.5

1.5

1.7

1.6

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1.7

4.9 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5

5.9 5.9 6.3 6.3

6.6 6.7 6.2

(0.6

)

-2

0

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0

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19

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FY

20

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FY

20

3Q

FY

20

4Q

FY

20

%mmscmd

CNG PNG Total YoY growth- RHS

Page | 4


Change in estimates- Standalone

FY21E FY22E

Old New % Ch Old New % Ch

Volumes (mmscmd) 5.4 5.8 7.4 8.1 7.1 (12.8)

Per unit EBITDA margin

(INR/mmscmd) 5.9 6.1 2.4 7.7 6.5 (15.0)

Revenues (INR bn) 50.6 54.6 7.7 78.4 68.5 (12.7)

EBITDA (INR bn) 11.7 12.9 10.0 22.8 16.9 (25.9)

APAT (INR bn) 8.1 8.9 9.7 16.4 11.9 (27.5)

AEPS (INR/sh) 11.5 12.7 9.7 23.4 17.0 (27.5)


Peer Set Comparison (Standalone)

Company

Mcap

(INR

bn)

CMP

(INR/sh) Reco TP

EPS (INR/sh) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%)

FY20E FY21E FY22E FY20E FY21E FY22E FY20E FY21E FY22E FY20E FY21E FY22E

GAIL 433 96 ADD 91 10.1 2.1 6.7 9.5 45.5 14.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 10.0 2.0 6.2

Petronet LNG 393 262 ADD 241 18.0 15.7 24.5 14.6 16.7 10.7 3.7 3.9 3.7 26.2 22.8 35.5

Indraprastha Gas 332 474 ADD 520 15.2 12.7 17.0 31.2 37.4 27.9 6.6 5.9 5.2 23.2 16.6 19.7

Gujarat Gas 198 287 ADD 323 13.1 10.9 17.9 21.9 26.2 16.0 6.0 5.0 3.9 32.6 20.7 27.4

GSPL 125 221 ADD 251 17.3 14.6 19.8 12.8 15.2 11.2 1.9 1.7 1.5 15.6 11.7 14.4

Mahanagar Gas 103 1045 ADD 1,137 80.3 61.3 83.3 13.0 17.0 12.6 3.5 3.2 2.8 29.7 19.5 23.6


Page | 5


Financials Consolidated Income Statement YE Mar (INR bn) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E

Revenues 38.15 45.35 57.65 64.85 54.56 68.48

Growth % 3.5 18.9 27.1 12.5 (15.9) 25.5

Raw Material 20.84 24.91 33.97 36.79 29.51 37.48

Employee Cost 0.92 1.06 1.43 1.52 1.64 1.80

Other Expenses 6.70 8.15 9.57 11.35 10.55 12.35

EBITDA 9.69 11.23 12.68 15.20 12.86 16.85

EBIDTA Margin (%) 25.4 24.8 22.0 23.4 23.6 24.6

EBITDA Growth % 24.4 15.9 12.8 19.9 (15.4) 31.1

Depreciation 1.67 1.81 2.01 2.52 2.65 2.78

EBIT 8.02 9.42 10.67 12.67 10.21 14.07

Other Income (Including EO Items) 0.46 0.91 1.28 1.43 1.72 1.89

Interest 0.07 0.09 0.13 0.08 0.08 0.08

PBT 8.41 10.24 11.82 14.02 11.85 15.88

Tax 2.98 3.74 4.27 3.08 2.99 4.00

RPAT 5.44 6.50 7.55 10.95 8.86 11.88

EO (Loss) / Profit (Net Of Tax) - - - 0.72 - -

APAT 5.44 6.50 7.55 10.23 8.86 11.88

Share from associates 0.63 0.72 0.87 1.54 1.35 1.47

Consolidated APAT 6.06 7.22 8.42 11.77 10.21 13.36

Consolidated APAT Growth (%) 32.4 19.0 16.7 39.8 (13.3) 30.8

AEPS 8.7 10.3 12.0 16.8 14.6 19.1

AEPS Growth % 32.4 19.0 16.7 39.8 (13.3) 30.8


Consolidated Balance Sheet

YE Mar (INR bn) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20P FY21E FY22E

SOURCES OF FUNDS

Share Capital 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.40

Reserves And Surplus 28.72 35.07 41.76 52.18 59.29 68.48

Total Equity 30.12 36.47 43.16 53.58 60.69 69.88

Long-term Debt - - - - - -

Short-term Debt - - - - - -

Total Debt - - - - - -

Deferred Tax Liability 2.02 2.60 3.16 2.88 1.64 2.36

Long-term Provision and others 0.20 0.14 0.21 1.02 0.99 1.05

TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 32.34 39.20 46.53 57.49 63.31 73.30

APPLICATION OF FUNDS

Net Block 21.17 24.32 28.77 35.57 42.77 49.94

Capital WIP 3.52 3.86 4.78 7.77 3.50 3.50

LT Loans And Advances 0.28 0.69 0.94 0.83 (0.68) (0.67)

Total Non-current Investments 3.66 4.26 4.92 6.30 6.30 6.30

Total Non-current assets 28.63 33.14 39.41 50.47 51.89 59.07

Inventories 0.52 0.52 0.51 0.51 0.43 0.54

Debtors 2.01 2.26 2.21 1.70 1.43 1.80

Cash and Cash Equivalents 10.26 14.48 18.93 21.80 24.95 28.77

Other Current Assets 0.50 0.56 0.77 0.96 2.36 2.60

Total Current Assets 13.30 17.83 22.42 24.98 29.18 33.71

Creditors 2.74 3.39 4.88 2.25 1.80 2.29

Other Current Liabilities & Provisions 6.85 8.38 10.42 15.71 15.95 17.20

Total Current Liabilities 9.59 11.76 15.31 17.95 17.76 19.49

Net Current Assets 3.71 6.06 7.12 7.02 11.42 14.23

TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 32.34 39.20 46.53 57.49 63.31 73.30


Page | 6


Consolidated Cash Flow YE Mar (INR bn) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20P FY21E FY22E

Reported PBT 8.41 10.24 11.82 14.02 11.85 15.88

Non-operating & EO Items 0.17 (0.19) (0.41) (0.61) (0.37) (0.42)

Interest Expenses 0.07 0.09 0.13 0.08 0.08 0.08

Depreciation 1.67 1.81 2.01 2.52 2.65 2.78

Working Capital Change 3.27 1.86 3.40 2.96 (1.25) 1.01

Tax Paid (2.74) (3.17) (3.71) (3.35) (4.23) (3.28)

OPERATING CASH FLOW (a) 10.85 10.65 13.24 15.63 8.72 16.06

Capex (3.50) (5.30) (7.38) (12.31) (5.58) (9.95)

Free Cash Flow (FCF) 7.35 5.34 5.86 3.32 3.14 6.11

Investments (0.39) (0.60) (0.66) (1.38) - -

Non-operating Income 0.46 0.91 1.28 1.43 1.72 1.89

Others (0.03) (0.41) (0.25) 0.11 1.51 (0.01)

INVESTING CASH FLOW (b) (3.46) (5.42) (7.00) (12.15) (2.35) (8.07)

Debt Issuance/(Repaid) - - - - - -

Interest Expenses (0.07) (0.09) (0.13) (0.08) (0.08) (0.08)

FCFE 7.28 5.26 5.73 3.24 3.06 6.03

Share Capital Issuance - - - - - -

Dividend (1.16) (1.64) (1.97) (3.98) (3.10) (4.16)

Others (0.43) 0.71 0.31 3.45 (0.04) 0.07

FINANCING CASH FLOW (c) (1.66) (1.02) (1.79) (0.61) (3.22) (4.17)

NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) 5.73 4.21 4.45 2.87 3.15 3.82

EO Items, Others

Closing Cash & Equivalents 10.26 14.48 18.93 21.80 24.95 28.77

Consolidated Key Ratios

FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20P FY21E FY22E

PROFITABILITY %

EBITDA Margin 25.4 24.8 22.0 23.4 23.6 24.6

EBIT Margin 21.0 20.8 18.5 19.5 18.7 20.5

APAT Margin 15.9 15.9 14.6 18.1 18.7 19.5

RoE 21.7 21.7 21.2 24.3 17.9 20.5

RoIC 29.1 33.5 35.0 43.0 27.6 30.1

RoCE 21.9 21.8 21.4 24.5 18.0 20.6

EFFICIENCY

Tax Rate % 35.4 36.5 36.1 21.9 25.2 25.2

Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.1 1.2

Inventory (days) 4.9 4.2 3.2 2.9 2.9 2.9

Debtors (days) 19.3 18.2 14.0 9.6 9.6 9.6

Other Current Assets (days) 4.8 4.5 4.9 5.4 15.8 13.9

Payables (days) 48.0 49.6 52.5 22.3 22.3 22.3

Other Current Liab & Provns (days) 65.5 67.4 66.0 88.4 106.7 91.7

Cash Conversion Cycle (days) (84.5) (90.1) (96.3) (92.8) (100.8) (87.6)

Net Debt/EBITDA (x) (1.1) (1.3) (1.5) (1.4) (1.9) (1.7)

Net D/E (0.3) (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) (0.4)

Interest Coverage 118.0 110.1 83.7 156.1 125.7 173.3

PER SHARE DATA (Rs)

EPS 8.7 10.3 12.0 16.8 14.6 19.1

CEPS 11.0 12.9 14.9 20.4 18.4 23.1

Dividend 1.7 2.3 2.8 5.7 4.4 5.9

Book Value 43.0 52.1 61.7 76.5 86.7 99.8

VALUATION

P/E (x) 54.7 46.0 39.4 28.2 32.5 24.8

P/Cash EPS (x) 42.9 36.7 31.8 23.2 25.8 20.6

P/BV (x) 11.0 9.1 7.7 6.2 5.5 4.7

EV/EBITDA (x) 33.2 28.2 24.7 20.4 23.9 18.0

EV/Revenue (x) 8.4 7.0 5.4 4.8 5.6 4.4

Dividend Yield (%) 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.3 1.0 1.3

OCF/EV (%) 3.4 3.4 4.2 5.0 2.8 5.3

FCFF/EV (%) 2.3 1.7 1.9 1.1 1.0 2.0

FCFE/M Cap (%) 2.2 1.6 1.7 1.0 0.9 1.8


Page | 7


Rating Criteria

BUY: >+15% return potential

ADD: +5% to +15% return potential

REDUCE: -10% to +5% return potential

SELL: >10% Downside return potential

Date CMP Reco Target

9-Jul-19 330 BUY 384

25-Jul-19 310 BUY 384

16-Aug-19 316 BUY 402

22-Sep-19 328 BUY 420

11-Oct-19 371 BUY 421

8-Nov-19 393 BUY 480

10-Jan-20 418 BUY 479

7-Feb-20 522 BUY 545

2-Mar-20 442 BUY 560

29-Apr-20 469 ADD 504

18-Jun-20 474 ADD 520

From 2nd March 2020, we have moved to new rating system

RECOMMENDATION HISTORY

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IGL TP

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Disclosure:

We, Harshad Katkar, MBA, Nilesh Ghuge, MMS & Divya Singhal, CA, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views

expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. HSL has no material adverse disciplinary history as on the

date of publication of this report. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific

recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.

Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative

or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding

the date of publication of the Research Report. Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material

conflict of interest.

Any holding in stock –No

HDFC Securities Limited (HSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475.

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