21 may 2020 results review 4qfy20 dr. reddy’s labs reddy - 4qfy20 - hsie... · 2020. 5. 21. ·...

21 May 2020 Results Review 4QFY20

Dr. Reddy’s Labs

HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO> & Thomson Reuters

Valuations leave little room for disappointment

Dr. Reddys' Q4 PAT came ahead of expectations led by strong revenue growth

(+15% YoY, 6% beat) and tax write back. EBIDTA margins came in line as

lower gross margins were offset by lower SG&A spends. Improved growth

trajectory and cost control initiatives have led to EBIDTA margin expansion

(~300bps) over the last three years. Going forward, while we continue to factor

cost savings, a large part (~20%) of our FY22 estimates hinges on key product

approvals in the US (gNuvaring, gCopaxone), the approval timelines for

which remain uncertain. Despite factoring these launches and margin

expansion as per company guidance, we don’t see upside from current levels.

The stock trades at 27x/21x FY21/22 EPS which leaves limited room for

execution miss. We maintain Reduce rating with a revised TP of Rs3,770 based

on 20x FY22 EPS.

Revenue beat, margins in line: Revenues grew at 15% YoY at Rs44.3bn as

strong growth in US (+13% YoY, new launches, higher volumes), Europe

(+80% YoY, +11% YoY, strong performance in Germany, new markets) offset

muted growth in India (+5%YoY, logistics impact). EBIDTA margins came at

21.6% (down 216bps QoQ) as lower gross margins (adverse business mix,

write offs) were partially offset by lower SG&A spend (-120bps QoQ).

Major part of US growth hinges on two key product approvals: We

forecast the US business to register 14% revenue CAGR over the next two

years and two key assets - gNuvaring and gCopaxone account for ~50%+ of

growth in the same period. We factor these high value launches, along with

sustained cost savings and factor ~350bps margin expansion over FY20-22e.

Any delay in approval/launch timelines will impact our estimates.

Key call takeaways: a) Price erosion in US has stabilized, deflation to

continue; b) gNuvaring and gCopaxone – CRL to be filed in few months;

gVascepa - no hurdles on regulatory front; expects to launch 25 products in

the US; c) Wockhardt deal closure expected in Q1FY21; d) Covid impact was

neutral on revenues; e) Guidance: Gross margin: 52-54% of sales, R&D

spend: 9-10% of sales, Capex: Rs10bn in FY21, Tax rate: 22%

Maintain Reduce, risks: We increase our EPS estimates by 3-7% for FY21/22

and revise our TP to Rs3,770 (from Rs3,330 earlier). Our TP is based on 20x

FY22 EPS. Key upside risks: Lower price erosion in the US, higher growth in

India and EM markets; faster than expected approvals for key products in

the US.

Financial Summary

YE Mar (Rs mn) 4Q

FY20

4Q

FY19

YoY

(%)

3Q

FY20

QoQ

(%) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

Net Revenues 44,318 38,356 15.5 43,838 1.1 140,728 153,851 167,371 186,329 210,992

EBIDTA 9,574 6,800 40.8 10,416 -8.1 22,696 30,672 34,546 41,187 50,104

Reported PAT 7,642 4,426 72.7 -5,697 NA 9,806 21,492 19,497 24,395 31,377

EPS (Rs) 45.9 26.6 72.7 -34.2 NA 58.9 129.1 117.1 146.5 188.5

P/E (x)

66.4 30.3 33.4 26.7 20.7

EV / EBITDA (x)

63.7 32.8 29.9 22.1 16.5

RoCE (%)

5.7 11.3 16.0 13.6 15.3

Source: Company, HSIE Research

REDUCE

CMP(as on 20 May 2020) Rs 3,910

Target Price Rs 3,770

NIFTY 9,067

KEY

CHANGES OLD NEW

Rating REDUCE REDUCE

Price Target Rs 3,330 Rs 3,770

EPS % FY21E FY22E

+3% +7%

KEY STOCK DATA

Bloomberg code DRRD IN

No. of Shares (mn) 166

MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 650/8,591

6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 3,135

52 Week high / low Rs 4,132/2,351

STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)

3M 6M 12M

Absolute (%) 20.1 37.8 51.0

Relative (%) 45.3 62.0 72.7

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)

Dec-19 Mar-20

Promoters 26.76 26.75

FIs & Local MFs 15.10 14.35

FPIs 30.04 30.15

Public & Others 28.10 28.75

Pledged Shares 0.00 0.00

Source : BSE

Bansi Desai, CFA

[email protected]

+91-22-6171-7341

Karan Shah

[email protected]

+91-22-6171-7359

Page | 2

Dr Reddy’s Lab: Results Review 4QFY20

Quarterly Financial Snapshot

Particulars (Rs mn) 4QFY20 4QFY19 YoY

(%) 3QFY20

QoQ

(%) FY20 FY19 YoY (%)

Total Revenues 44,318 38,356 15.5 43,838 1.1 167,371 153,851 8.8

Gross Profit 21,510 19,113 12.5 20,116 6.9 86,780 83,430 4.0

S G & A 11,292 11,329 (0.3) 11,715 (3.6) 46,297 44,946 3.0

R&D exp. 4,190 3,662 14.4 3,949 6.1 15,410 15,607 (1.3)

Amortization exp. 885 965 (8.3) 955 (7.3) 3,832 3,944 (2.8)

Other Operating (Inc.)/exp. 168 330 (49.1) 228 (26.3) 833 1,955 (57.4)

Operating Inc. / (Loss) 6,609 3,617 82.7 7,331 (9.8) 22,074 20,888 5.7

Equity in Loss of Affiliates 105 157 (33.1) 176 (40.3) 561 438 28.1

PBT and Minority Interests 7,149 4,123 73.4 7,926 (9.8) 24,113 22,443 7.4

Income tax benefit / (exp.) 500 (1,507) NA (423) NA 1,466 (3,648) NA

Extra ordinary (income)/

exp. 7 (1,810) NA 13,200 NA 6,082 (2,697) NA

Reported PAT 7,642 4,426 72.7 (5,697) (234.1) 19,497 21,492 (9.3)

Reported EPS (Rs.) 45.9 26.6 72.7 (34.2) (234.1) 117.1 129.1 (9.3)


Margin Analysis

Margin Analysis(% of sales) 4QFY20 4QFY19 YoY

(bps) 3QFY20

QoQ

(bps) FY20 FY19

YoY

(bps)

Material Expenses 48.5 49.8 (129) 45.9 265 48.2 45.8 238

SG&A Expenses 25.5 29.5 (406) 26.7 (124) 27.7 29.2 (155)

R&D Expenses 9.5 9.5 (9) 9.0 45 9.2 10.1 (94)

EBITDA Margin 21.6 17.7 387 23.8 (216) 20.6 19.9 70

Tax Rate (% of PBT) (7.0) 36.6 NA 5.3 NA (6.1) 16.3 NA


Segmental Quarterly Performance

Particulars (Rs mn) 4QFY20 4QFY19 YoY

(%) 3QFY20

QoQ

(%) FY20 FY19 YoY (%)

Global Generics 36,399 30,384 19.8 35,927 1.3 138,124 122,903 12.4

North America 18,072 14,957 20.8 15,999 13.0 64,658 59,957 7.8

Europe 3,446 1,912 80.2 3,093 11.4 11,707 7,873 48.7

India 6,839 6,505 5.1 7,636 (10.4) 28,946 26,184 10.5

Russia & Other CIS 5,700 3,600 58.3 6,700 (14.9) 23,340 19,679 18.6

Others 2,342 3,410 (31.3) 2,499 (6.3) 9,473 9,210 2.9

PSAI 7,195 6,765 6.4 6,906 4.2 25,747 24,140 6.7

Others 725 3,017 (76.0) 1,005 (27.9) 10,730 6,808 57.6

Total 44,318 40,166 10.3 43,838 1.1 174,600 153,851 13.5


Revise TP to Rs3,770, Maintain Reduce

We tweak our earnings estimates for FY21-22 by 3-7% and increase our target

multiple from 19x to 20x in line with sector average multiple. Our revised TP of

Rs3,770 (from Rs3,330 earlier) is based on 20x FY22 EPS.

Q4 revenues beat

expectation by 6% as

strong growth in US,

Europe & Russia/CIS

offsets muted growth in

India, PSAI & other

markets

Gross margin at 51.5%

improved 129bps YoY,

declined 265bps QoQ on

account of price erosion,

change in business mix and

increase in

provisions/write-off

R&D spent at 9.5% of sales

(~8.8% of sales in FY20)

EBITDA margin improved

by 387bps YoY to 21.6%

but declined 216bps QoQ

due to lower gross margins

India (+5% YoY; -10%

QoQ) was impacted by

logistic related challenges

on account of lockdown

US base biz (+21% YoY &

+13% QoQ) led by

increased volume in

existing product & new

product launches

Europe biz revenue (+80%

YoY & 11% QoQ) on the

back of improved base biz,

new product launches,

improved growth in

Germany and expansion

into new geographies

Russia+CIS biz witnessed

strong growth of 58% YoY,

however sequentially

declined by 15%

PSAI biz (+6% YoY & +4%

QoQ) was impacted due to

logistic constraint

Page | 3


Financials Consolidated Income Statement

Year to March (INR mn) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

Revenues 148,189 154,708 140,809 140,728 153,851 167,371 186,329 210,992

Cost of revenues 62,786 62,427 62,453 65,724 70,421 80,591 87,078 96,767

Gross profits 85,403 92,281 78,356 75,004 83,430 86,780 99,252 114,225

Gross Margin (%) 57.6 59.6 55.6 53.3 54.2 51.8 53.3 54.1

SGA expenses 40,204 42,233 42,647 43,115 44,946 46,297 49,377 53,291

R&D expenses 17,449 17,834 19,551 18,265 15,607 15,410 17,701 20,044

Amortization expenses 2,381 3,469 3,725 3,476 3,944 3,832 3,889 3,932

Other operating Income/ (expense) 917 874 1,065 788 1,955 833 800 1,000

Total operating expenses 59,117 62,662 64,858 64,068 62,542 64,706 70,168 76,267

Operating income 26,286 29,619 13,498 10,936 20,888 22,074 29,084 37,958

Operating Margin (%) 17.7 19.1 9.6 7.8 13.6 13.2 15.6 18.0

Equity in profit / (loss) of affiliates 195 229 349 344 438 561 640 640

Other (expense)/income 1,682 -2,708 806 766 1,117 1,478 1,552 1,629

Tax -5,984 -7,127 -2,614 -3,231 -3,648 1,466 -6,881 -8,850

Effective tax rate (%) 21.2 26.3 17.8 26.8 16.3 -6.1 22.0 22.0

One time income/charges - 5,085 684 -991 -2,697 6,082 - -

Reported Net Income 22,179 20,013 12,039 9,806 21,492 19,497 24,395 31,377


Consolidated Balance Sheet


Current Assets 46,149 46,227 41,931 43,255 42,097 62,292 77,740 99,053

Cash And Equivalents 5,394 4,921 3,866 2,638 2,228 12,080 26,691 41,247

Accounts Receivable, Net Of Allowances 40,755 41,306 38,065 40,617 39,869 50,211 51,049 57,806

Inventories 25,529 25,578 28,529 29,089 33,579 35,079 39,308 44,511

Deferred Income Tax 1,819 1,664 3,413 4,567 3,400 3,400 3,400 3,400

Investment Securities 34,259 35,034 14,270 18,330 22,529 22,529 22,529 22,529

Other Current Assets 12,082 11,185 12,232 14,404 12,896 14,903 16,846 19,076

Total Current Assets 63,995 64,646 85,000 69,692 59,700 70,911 71,133 72,498

Property, Plant And Equipment 48,090 53,961 57,160 57,869 54,088 52,338 50,338 49,338

Investment In Affiliates 1,033 1,309 1,603 2,104 2,529 2,529 2,529 2,529

Intangible Assets 16,430 24,644 48,677 48,610 48,269 31,769 31,769 31,769

Deferred Tax Asset 5,792 4,997 5,580 3,628 4,168 4,168 4,168 4,168

Other Assets 762 1,063 1,189 1,199 1,059 1,059 1,059 1,059

Total Assets 194,762 207,650 219,821 225,604 225,427 230,579 250,199 277,945

Current Liabilities 39,479 35,128 57,066 41,581 30,934 37,326 37,548 38,913

Borrowing From Banks 21,857 22,718 43,539 25,466 12,125 16,425 15,425 14,425

Trade Accounts Payables 10,660 12,300 13,417 16,052 14,553 16,645 17,867 20,232

Other Current Liabilities 17,317 22,070 21,932 22,764 24,351 29,351 29,351 29,351

Total Current Liabilities 63,995 64,646 85,000 69,692 59,700 70,911 71,133 72,498

Long Term Debt, Excl Current Portion 14,307 10,685 5,449 25,089 22,000 1,500 1,500 1,500

Liabilities 83,460 79,314 95,777 99,144 85,230 75,881 76,103 77,468

Total Stockholders Equity 111,302 128,336 124,044 126,460 140,197 154,697 174,096 200,477

Total Liabilities 194,762 207,650 219,821 225,604 225,427 230,579 250,199 277,945


Page | 4


Consolidated Cash Flow Year to March (INR mn) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

Net income 22,179 20,013 12,039 9,806 18,795 19,497 24,395 31,377

Adjustments 23,290 28,436 20,594 19,948 20,521 12,472 12,103 12,146

Depreciation & Amortization 8,100 10,250 11,277 11,710 12,190 12,472 12,103 12,146

Taxes Payable -5,396 -7,014 -5,770 -2,761 -4,841 -181 - -

Change in working capital -20,436 -7,202 -11,120 -11,725 -10,612 -2,698 -6,788 -12,825

Cash flow from operations 25,033 41,247 21,513 18,029 28,704 29,271 29,710 30,699

Capex -9,339 -12,017 -12,278 -9,291 -6,955 -10,722 -10,103 -11,146

Net Investment In Securities -8,290 1,021 21,858 -4,391 -2,282 - - -

Others -21,855 -7,385 15,665 -9,983 -3,054 16,800 - -

Cash flow from investing activities -31,194 -19,402 3,387 -19,274 -10,009 6,078 -10,103 -11,146

Shares Issued 5 1 -15,693 1 - - - -

Change in debt 352 -11,979 16,316 882 -15,182 -20,500 - -

Dividend -3,587 -4,106 -3,390 -3,992 -4,002 -4,997 -4,997 -4,997

Interest -1,090 -917 -925 -1,331 -1,607 - - -

Others -4,476 -5,023 -4,315 -5,323 -6,144 -4,997 -4,997 -4,997

Cash flows from financing activities -4,119 -17,001 -3,692 -4,440 -21,326 -25,497 -4,997 -4,997

Effects of exchange rate changes on cash -1,068 -4,296 -492 57 35 - - -

Net Change in Cash -3,058 -473 -1,142 -1,237 -349 9,852 14,611 14,556

Opening cash balance 8,451 5,394 4,921 3,866 2,542 2,228 12,080 26,691

Closing cash balance 5,393 4,921 3,779 2,629 2,228 12,080 26,691 41,247

Free Cash Flow 15,694 29,230 9,235 8,738 21,749 18,549 19,607 19,553


Key Ratios


PROFITABILITY (%)

GPM 57.6 59.6 55.6 53.3 54.2 51.8 53.3 54.1

EBITDA Margin 22.8 25.3 17.9 16.1 19.9 20.6 22.1 23.7

APAT Margin 15.0 12.9 8.5 7.0 14.0 11.6 13.1 14.9

RoE 19.9 19.6 10.3 7.0 13.4 16.5 14.0 15.7

RoIC (or Core RoCE) 16.3 15.5 8.5 5.3 9.4 16.0 15.0 18.1

RoCE 17.0 14.0 8.9 5.7 11.3 16.0 13.6 15.3

EFFICIENCY

Tax Rate (%) 21.2 26.3 17.8 26.8 16.3 -6.1 22.0 22.0

Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 3

Inventory (days) 63 60 74 75 80 77 77 77

Debtors (days) 100 97 99 105 95 110 100 100

Other Current Assets (days) 30 26 32 37 31 33 33 33

Payables (days) 26 29 35 42 35 36 35 35

Other Current Liab & Provns (days) 53 63 69 69 68 73 66 58

Cash Conversion Cycle (days) 137 129 138 139 140 150 142 142

Debt/EBITDA (x) 0.1 -0.2 1.2 1.3 0.4 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9

Net D/E (x) 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2

PER SHARE DATA (Rs)

EPS 129.8 117.0 72.4 58.9 129.1 117.1 146.5 188.5

Dividend 18.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 25.0 25.0 25.0

Book Value 651 750 746 760 842 929 1,046 1,204

VALUATION

P/E (x) 30.1 33.4 54.0 66.4 30.3 33.4 26.7 20.7

P/BV (x) 6.0 5.2 5.2 5.1 4.6 4.2 3.7 3.2

EV/EBITDA (x) 26.8 23.5 51.4 63.7 32.8 29.9 22.1 16.5

EV/Revenues (x) 4.6 4.4 4.6 4.8 4.4 3.8 3.4 2.9

OCF/EV (%) 3.7 6.1 3.3 2.7 4.3 4.6 4.7 5.0

FCF/EV (%) 2.3 4.3 1.4 1.3 3.2 2.9 3.1 3.2

Dividend Yield (%) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6


Page | 5


Rating Criteria

BUY: >+15% return potential

ADD: +5% to +15% return potential

REDUCE: -10% to +5% return potential

SELL: > 10% Downside return potential

Date CMP Reco Target

28-Jan-20 3,188 NEU 3,440

13-Feb-20 3,196 NEU 3,440

24-Feb-20 3,255 NEU 3,440

2-Mar-20 2,926 ADD 3,270

8-Apr-20 3,583 REDUCE 3,330

21-May-20 3,910 REDUCE 3,770

From 2nd March 2020, we have moved to new rating system

RECOMMENDATION HISTORY

1,800

2,300

2,800

3,300

3,800

Ma

y-1

9

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Ma

r-2

0

Ap

r-2

0

Ma

y-2

0

Dr Reddy TP

Page | 6


Disclosure:

We, Bansi Desai, CFA & Karan Shah, MBA, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research

report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. HSL has no material adverse disciplinary history as on the date of publication of this

report. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this

report.

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the date of publication of the Research Report. Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material

conflict of interest.

Any holding in stock –No

HDFC Securities Limited (HSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475.

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21 may 2020 results review 4qfy20 dr. reddy’s labs reddy - 4qfy20 - hsie... · 2020. 5. 21. ·...

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