21 september 2020 hsie consumer conference hsie consumer

21 September 2020 HSIE Consumer Conference

HSIE Consumer Conference

HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO> & Thomson Reuters

We hosted a Consumer Conference-2020 and invited senior management of

various FMCG and Appliance companies. Most companies have witnessed a

sequential recovery in July, Aug, and Sep and are confident on sustaining

healthy growth in the coming months, provided there are no further

lockdowns. Category leaders are gaining market share by capitalising the

situation. A quick resumption of production, smoother supply chain, rapid

new launches, and trade-friendly strategies have supported the big players.

FMCG companies have continued to enjoy traction on packaged foods, health

and hygiene. At the same time, Appliance companies are seeing traction

across B-C products and gradual improvement in B-B. Our thesis seems to

play out for most companies, and it gives us confidence in our earnings

estimates.

Following is the participant list and conference takeaways:

Companies Participants

ITC

Supratim Datta

Abhijeet Roy

Karthik Bhanu

Dabur

Lalit Mallik

Gagan Ahluwalia

Ankit Joshi

Marico Ruby Ritolia

Vami Doshi

Havells Manish Kaushik

Prashant Saraswat

Voltas Manish Desai

Crompton Consumer Sandeep Batra

Yeshwant Rege

TTK Prestige Chandru Kalro

K. Shankaran

Radico

Dilip Banthiya

Mukesh Agarwal

Saket Somani

Symphony

Nrupesh Shah

Bhadresh Mehta

Milind Kotecha

Varun Lohchab

[email protected]

+91-22-6171-7334

Naveen Trivedi

[email protected]

+91-22-6171-7324

Aditya Sane

[email protected]

+91-22-6171-7336

Page | 2

HSIE Consumer Conference: Key Takeaways

ITC

FMCG marches on

ITC continues to witness good traction in its FMCG portfolio and company is capitalising

on rising demand for packaged food, health and hygiene categories. Several brand

extensions are happening (particularly under Savlon brand) and company is confident on

achieving strong growth, even if there is moderation in demand from the current elevated

levels once the situation normalises. Cig recovery was healthy in June up to mid-July but

thereafter localised lockdowns impacted the pace. Of late, some progressive recovery is

being witnessed and hopefully business will move towards a steady-state in 2HFY21.

Key Takeaways:

Recovery trend in cigarettes continued for the first 10 days of July. However, following

that, due to sporadic and localised restrictions, recovery has been hampered.

ITC has not been able to perceive any significant downtrading on cigarette product mix.

The company has gained share in Q1.

The company has progressively developed the capacity to manufacture 100% of its

capsule requirement. Currently about 80-85% of total capsule requirements are

manufactured in-house. ITC has a 60%+ market share in capsules; overall share is >75%.

Higher demand for packaged food, health and hygiene categories have been giving

opportunity for the company to capitalize on its wide product portfolio.

Savlon has seen exponential growth, and several brand extensions have better

addressability of the market opportunity.

The company's frozen food range witnessed good traction as the lockdown and higher

home consumption has provided strong impetus to the category.

For packaged food, the company has been focusing on reducing the distance to market.

Many sub-segments of FMCG brands have competitive margins. Company is committed

to sustaining margin expansion going forward; the segment has been witnessing strong

margin expansion over the last 3 years.

The recent acquisition of Sunrise is to allow the company to have a sizeable presence in a

large category which is driven by regional brands. Spices are the fourth largest category in

FMCG, and the company will focus on gaining share in the newer markets for Sunrise.

In terms of capital allocation, major capex in Hotels & FMCG has already been done.

The dividend payout policy has already been revised (payout ratio will be 80-85%).

Acquisitions will always be on the radar but it has to fit on all aspects in terms of value

creation for the company.

Page | 3


Dabur India

On the cusp of recovery

Dabur has witnessed healthy recovery as restrictions have been lifted. Initially, categories

like OTC FMCG, Hygiene and Oral Care saw strong traction. However, recovery is now

visible across the board. The recovery has been faster in rural markets than urban, and the

company’s strong rural presence has helped it capitalise on the trend. Dabur has managed

to keep channel inventory low, and it has focused on improving supply chain efficiency by

eliminating 25% of tail SKUs. International markets like Turkey, Egypt and Bangladesh

have posted strong cc growth. However, MENA and Nepal have continued to struggle.

While gross margins continue to remain under pressure owing to raw material inflation,

cuts in discretionary cost are expected to help the company maintain its margins in FY21.

Key Takeaways:

▪ Recovery is healthy across the products, ease in localised lockdown further supporting the

demand. Macros are still not favourable (high unemployment rate, etc.) and not sure

consumer sentiments and income growth will impact the demand in the medium term.

▪ Festive demand is expected to be strong, with pent-up demand supporting the festive

season offtake.

▪ OTC, health and hygiene products have continued to witness strong traction.

▪ Juices have continued to struggle as out of home consumption has remained low. Juices

have been dragged primarily by LUPs, while the 1 Ltr pack has witnessed growth in

2QFY21 due to higher at-home consumption.

▪ Dabur has launched several new variants within Juices in select markets, which have been

received well.

▪ The company is also looking for strategic product expansions, and it has forayed into

edible oil with the launch of mustard oil. Edible oil is Rs 20bn category, with mustard oil

forming 10% of that. Unorganised players dominate most of this market. Hence, Dabur is

well-positioned to capture market share.

▪ Rural growth has remained ahead of urban, and the company expects this trend to

continue owing to a strong monsoon and government incentives. Dabur is poised well to

capture this growth as the company has grown its village coverage to 54,500.

▪ Recovery in International markets has remained mixed. Turkey, Egypt, North America

and Bangladesh have posted robust cc growth. However, Nepal and MENA have

continued to struggle, and the recovery has been gradual.

▪ Gross margin has been impacted by inflation in raw materials (amla). However, the

company is looking into cutting back on discretionary expenditure. The savings will be

invested in A&P to establish better brand presence and improve market share.

▪ The company intends to maintain its EBITDA margins at the FY20 level.

Page | 4


Marico

High focus on new launches and market share gain

Marico has witnessed a gradual recovery in its portfolio as discretionary expenditure

increased slightly, and lockdown restrictions were lifted. Recovery has been driven by the

strong growth in Saffola and recovery in PCNO. Premium VAHO remained weak due to

weak discretionary spend. While mid and economy segments of VAHO have recovered

well and has been seeing YoY growth. The company is trying to capitalise the spur in rural

demand. Marico’s International portfolio has performed better than domestic as

Bangladesh continued to grow in double digits, and Indonesia also started showing

recovery trends. Copra is still seeing inflation but will see a moderation in 2HFY21.

Company has increased consumer offers on PCNO to gain market share. Company is not

focusing on gross margin expansion but expects EBITDA margin will be strong at 20% in

FY21 (similar to FY20). The company is confident of achieving strong traction on new

launches, and aggressive launches will continue.

Key Takeaways:

▪ Saffola portfolio is sustaining healthy growth momentum, as consumers remain focused

on health. The company expects that consumer trend on health and hygiene will remain

strong even in the medium term. Increase in home cooking has also driving Saffola as

consumers have flocked to trusted brands.

▪ PNCO has seen healthy recovery; production constraints for unorganised manufacturers

have aided PCNO as the company witnessed an accelerated shift from loose to packaged

oil. The focus remains on gaining market share. Marico enjoys a 60% market share in

PCNO in urban markets while market share in rural markets is 40%.

▪ The company has also taken initiatives for ensuring last-mile delivery in urban areas

through partnerships with Swiggy, Zomato, Dunzo and directly.

▪ Discretionary categories have continued to remain under pressure and recovery in VAHO

has been gradual. However, while the premium segment has continued to struggle,

VAHO has seen traction at the bottom of the pyramid. The company has seen growth

returning from May in the value segment. Even the mid-segment is on the growth

trajectory now.

▪ Haircare and other premium portfolios like beauty products have witnessed gradual

recovery. Although these categories have not returned to growth yet, recovery is visible,

MoM.

▪ The company’s presence in 58,000 villages has supported recovery as rural demand has

been stronger than urban.

▪ Copra is still seeing inflation, but management expects that prices will be soft in FY21.

Company has increased consumer offers for PNCO to gain market share. The company is

focused on gaining market share and not focusing on expanding gross margin. Cost

savings in A&P and other discretionary expenses will support EBITDA margin.

▪ The company has set a cost-saving target of Rs 1.5bn in FY21. The company aims to

achieve a 20% EBITDA margin in FY21.

Page | 5


Havells

B-C leads the way; confident on Lloyd recovery

Havells has witnessed strong recovery across its B-C portfolio since states began lifting

restrictions. The recovery has been aided by increased demand for consumer durables due

to WFH as well as the company’s strong retail footprint. Lloyd has received positive

feedback, and extended summer in the north region resulted in strong demand for its RAC.

Initiatives like an online-to-offline platform and expanding rural reach have helped the

company recover quicker than its peers and gaining market share. B-B demand has been

improving slower than B-C, impacted by lower government expenditure and delay in

Capex by private entities.

Key Takeaways:

▪ The B-C portfolio has witnessed broad-based recovery for Havells. While recovery began

with categories like personal grooming, fans and RAC in May, it has been uniform since

June. Supply constraints for unorganised players have also aided market share gain.

▪ B-C lighting has seen prices stabilise, which has helped maintain margins for the

company.

▪ Dealer buying was also led by demand, and inventory levels have normalised.

▪ However, the company expects higher demand as dealers begin stocking up for the festive

season.

▪ B-B revenue has continued to be weak for Havells despite restrictions being lifted across

the country. Due to private entities deferring Capex and low government expenditure.

▪ Distribution expansion has also been supporting the recovery phase. Consumers remain

unwilling to venture far from their homes, and the strong retail presence has driven

recovery for Havells.

▪ Additionally, the company is also focusing on expanding its rural presence. It has

established a distribution network in 2,000 towns and expects it to grow to 3,000 towns in

the near term.

▪ Rural revenue mix is expected to grow gradually as electrical goods are dependent on

infrastructure, which is still being developed.

▪ RAC has performed well in 2QFY21 despite it being an off-season quarter, and Lloyd has

been able to capitalise on the demand in Northern markets.

▪ Havells has focused on driving Lloyd’s recovery by expanding into new categories. The

company has launched a full range of refrigerators, and it intends to expand the Washing

Machine line-up.

▪ Beginning production in the new factory for Lloyd has allowed Havells to control the

entire supply chain providing Lloyd with stability and allowing it to meet market

demand.

▪ Company is not focusing on the TV panel business until it finds differentiated consumer

offering. TV panel will support Lloyd as portfolio play.

▪ Paying suppliers on time had stretched the working capital, but it ensures the smooth

supply once the production begins. It gave competitive advantage by quick filling the

trade channel.

▪ Havells was always a manufacturing-focused company; therefore, Make-in-India and

Aatmanirbhar Bharat do not require any further acceleration in its Capex plan.

Page | 6


Voltas

Confident of gaining market share across the portfolio

Extended summer in the north region and market share gain, continues to help in lowering

down the trade inventory for Voltas. Onam was below expected, but Volt-Beko has seen

strong growth. The company remains optimistic about the upcoming festive season. Voltas

has continued to gain market share in RAC, and it has extended the market share gap from

the second player (LG) to 14.2%. The company is now focusing on scaling Volt-Beko and

expects it to be one of the key growth triggers going forward. EMPS execution remains

slow, although labour challenges have reduced. High provisioning and slow execution will

keep the pressure on margin for the next 2 quarters.

Key Takeaways:

▪ Although the RAC industry had seen weak consumer offtake, Voltas has continued to

dominate the category and gain market share. The company is the market leader across all

markets within the country, with a 14.2% gap in market share from its nearest competitor

(LG).

▪ Voltas believes that the market share gain has been a result of multiple factors, i.e. product

range, competitive pricing and distribution expansion.

▪ Extended summer in July in the north region lower down the trade inventory; however, it

is still higher by 15-20 days owing to weak sales during the summer.

▪ Inventory levels are lower in North and South; they remain elevated in the West and East.

▪ Voltas is hopeful of strong demand during the second summer in October.

▪ The company will enjoy an advantage in the South markets due to its new manufacturing

plant, which will help optimise supply chain and improve Voltas’ presence in the region.

▪ Voltas is focused on scaling Volt-Beko by expanding the product range and distribution

reach. The company intends to follow similar strategies as its RAC business in order to

gain market share in other appliance categories.

▪ Voltas has a presence in 19,000 touchpoints around the country, which provides Volt Beko

with a robust platform to reach consumers.

▪ E-commerce salience for the industry is 5-6%. Voltas enjoys a similar market share in the

online channel as the offline channels. E-commerce contribute 7% for Voltas

▪ Voltas is not focusing on exports opportunity; the company sees lots of growth

opportunities in India. Exports can be long term growth driver but not in the medium

term.

▪ Inventory in Air Coolers is ~40% of last year’s sales, similar to Symphony.

▪ EMPS has continued to struggle as labour constraints, and regulatory challenges have led

to slower execution and slow revenue recognition. Additionally, liquidity constraints have

caused higher provisioning, and hence, the company expects EMPS margins to remain

under pressure.

▪ New order inflow will also be muted owing to lower Capex and government expenditure.

Page | 7


Crompton Consumer

Encouraging recovery

Crompton’s recovery has been encouraging and a higher mix of B-C, resulting in a

sustainable recovery. The growth has been broad-based across company’s B-C portfolio. A

stable supply chain has also supported growth as most of the company’s vendors and

channel partners are in good financial health. B-C lighting has seen good recovery with

pricing supporting the margin. B-B lighting (10-12% of total revenue) is seeing slower

recovery. The company continues to focus on distribution strengthening and traction on

new launches. Company will capitalise strong brand recall and distribution by entering

into newer categories.

Key Takeaways:

▪ Crompton’s recovery is better and quicker than expected by management and revenue

returned to pre-COVID level in September. B-C business has seen recovery across

products. B-B lighting (10-12% of revenue) remained weak due to low Capex and

government expenditure. Barring any further disruptions, Crompton is expected to return

to pre-COVID growth once normalcy resumes.

▪ Price hike in B-C lighting is supporting lighting margin, while the company still aims to

achieve high single to low double-digit EBIT margin (mid-single-digit currently).

▪ Fan energy rating change is due in 15-16 months, which will be a big game-changer as it

would require high technology to upgrade. It will impact smaller/regional players a lot.

Crompton will not take any price hike but expect to gain market share.

▪ Management admits that many consumer brands are under-indexed and Crompton will

scale new launches along with entry into newer categories.

▪ Although WFH has not supported growth in premium fans, no downtrading has been

visible.

▪ Agri pumps led the growth while consumer appliances and water heaters saw similar

traction as last year.

▪ Crompton’s channel partners have remained in good financial health as the company’s

initiatives to support them during the lockdown paid dividends. Collections have been

healthy and overdue payments have reduced YoY.

▪ The company has also worked on gaining visibility of secondary sales by collaborating

with its distributors. It has gained visibility on 70% of the distributors so far, and recovery

in secondary sales has mirrored primary in 2QFY21.

▪ Crompton has been working towards reducing its dependence on imports from China.

Three years ago, the company relied entirely on imports for table/pedestal/wall fans. Since

March, the company has commissioned a facility in Goa to produce those fans.

▪ Imports have dropped to 1/3rd of earlier level and will continue to drop further. However,

the company does not expect to be able to eliminate its reliance on Chinese imports for

LED chips, as it does not have any viable alternatives.

▪ Fan is Rs 75bn category; Crompton is a market leader with a 26% share. Unorganised and

regional players combined contribute around 15-18%. Fan industry has witnessed high

single-digit CAGR in the last 3 years.

Page | 8


▪ Pump market is divided into the residential pump, agri pump and others. The residential

pump is <Rs 30bn category wherein Crompton has a 26-27% market share. Agri pump is

around Rs 30bn category with several regional players mix (30-40% mix). Crompton has a

7% market share; the brand is relatively new in the agri pump market, and it will take a

few more years to be a critical player in this space. Pump overall has seen mid-high single-

digit volume growth in the last 3 years.

▪ B-C lighting is close to Rs 60bn market, highly competitive category. Crompton has 9%

market share. Top 3-4 players combined contribute 55% market share.

▪ B-B lighting is Rs 120-130bn market size, Crompton has 9% market share. It is less

fragmented market than B-C. Crompton is Number 2 or 3 player in this segment (close to

Havells).

▪ Geyser is Rs 18-19bn market, Crompton is number 4 player with 11% market share. Top 4

players combined contribute 60%. Regional and smaller players contribute 30% share. The

category saw double-digit growth in the last 5 year.

▪ Air Cooler is Rs 20-25bn in size; Symphony is the market leader. Top 3 players combined

contribute 55-60% market share. Crompton has 5-6% market share. The market is shifting

to organised, which is 30-35% in volume. The overall market has had double-digit growth

in the past 5 years.

Page | 9


TTK Prestige

Strong recovery visible, all eyes on festive demand

TTK Prestige has witnessed a strong recovery in its revenue in 2QFY21 as WFH and home

cooking have boosted demand for kitchen appliances. The company has clocked recovery

across all its segments in 2QFY21, and certain segments like cleaning solutions have

clocked growth YTD, despite missing out on sales in April. Growth has been led by strong

demand, product innovation, as well as TTK’s presence across online channels. E-commerce

revenue has doubled while GT and PSK have clocked double-digit growth. Additionally,

migration of labour & capital and the ease in restrictions are leading to healthy rural

growth (ahead of urban growth). The company expects this trend to sustain in the near

term. The company expects the recovery to continue in 2HFY21 and demand to be strong in

the upcoming festive season.

Key Takeaways:

▪ Demand for kitchen appliances has witnessed strong growth as a result of WFH. Most

markets are now at a normal level. Recovery is broad-based across products, price

segments and markets. Big distributors like Reliance and Vijay Sales channel are growing

for TTK.

▪ Rural markets have grown faster than urban with the migration of labour and capital and

lower restrictions on the movement of people. The Rural with MFI channel was stuck until

August but is improving now.

▪ TTK’s growth has also been aided by strong product innovation; it launched 50+ products

in 2QFY21. The company also has several new launches in the pipeline for the upcoming

festive season.

▪ Demand is expected to remain strong in the festive season as indicated by the growth

during Onam.

▪ Cleaning solutions has been the best performer for TTK as a higher focus around hygiene

has led to exponential growth in demand. The category has clocked YTD growth despite

missing out on sales in April.

▪ E-commerce has been the most popular channel during the lockdown as consumers

avoided venturing out. The channel saw sales double for TTK in 2QFY21. Additionally,

GT and Prestige Exclusive have also clocked double-digit growth, which has helped

overcome the loss of sales in MT.

▪ TTK has continued to face supply constraints as its vendors are facing severe labour

challenges.

▪ Localised restrictions and sporadic lockdowns have kept labour mobility low, and hence,

vendors have been unable to reach full capacity utilisation.

▪ Additionally, despite TTK achieving 100% capacity utilisation, the company is facing

challenges meeting the demand as it was unable to build up inventory in 1QFY21.

▪ Cooker as a category can still do well, where premiumisation is very much possible.

▪ The company expects Rs 500mn business from the recently launched casserole; if it gets

success, it will enter other table products (culinary)

▪ The total addressable market is Rs 120-130bn in size and growing in low double-digit.

▪ Government is focusing on less use of LPG to avoid import pressure. It will boost to

electrical goods.

▪ The company plans to launch a new rice cooker, which will remove starch from rice (low

carbs).

▪ Company is not only focusing on revenue growth, but profit growth is equally important.

Page | 10


Radico Khaitan

Outperformance to the industry continues

Radico Khaitan continued to outperform the industry as revenue returned to the pre-

COVID level in July-August. Growth has been led by North and South regions, where

almost 100% of liquor shops are now open. P&A volumes have shown strong traction as

pubs/bars remaining closed has driven consumers towards hard liquor, and Radico’s

market share in P&A has grown to 8.5% (5% a few years back). Growth has been strongest

in states that took moderate tax hikes on liquor during the lockdown as sharp hikes have

discouraged consumption. The liquor industry has declined by ~10% in 2Q (51% decline in

1Q). Benign raw material prices have also supporting gross margins, along with a

favourable product and state mix for Radico. Gross margin is expected to be in 50-52% in

FY21.

Key Takeaways:

▪ Radico has clocked recovery faster than earlier expected as revenue has returned to pre-

COVID levels for the company in 2QFY21. Recovery has been a result of almost 100%

liquor shops reopening in North and South, although only 80-85% shops have reopened in

East and West.

▪ The liquor industry has declined by ~10% in 2Q (51% decline in 1Q). The industry is

expected to be flat in 3Q, in which situation, Radico will grow on a YoY basis.

▪ Magic Moment (MM) and Morpheus are giving good growth traction. Vodka is a small

market in India, and MM is the market leader (~50% share), so category expansion is

important for the brand.

▪ 8PM Black is expected to reach 1mn mark this year. Tiger Shroff is the brand ambassador.

Lots of digital activities are happing around the brand.

▪ Rampur and Jaisalmer brand continue to see strong demand.

▪ No price hike is taken except in Telengana (10-12%).

▪ Company’s Rampur and Aurangabad plants are operational at 100%

▪ P&A volumes have remained strong in 2QFY21, and the company has not observed any

significant downtrading. Premium brands like 8PM Premium Black, Rampur, Jaisalmer,

1965 have posted strong growth for the company, and its market share in P&A in the

country has grown to 8.5% from 5.6% 3 years ago.

▪ The quick recovery for Radico has been aided by the company’s strategic focus on states

with high liquor consumption and favourable pricing environment. Radico has focused on

states like UP, Karnataka, Telangana, and Himachal, which has provided the company

with a strong platform for market share gains.

▪ Raw material pricing has been benign, and ENA prices have fallen 6-7% from its peak in

December. RM inflation is expected to remain benign owing to a strong monsoon and

lower demand in FY21. Margins have also been supported by favourable product and

state mix as the recovery in P&A has been robust.

▪ The company has also focused on reducing outstanding receivables from AP, which

stands at Rs 1bn currently.

▪ Additionally, the company does not expect states to take sharp tax hikes as they have

discouraged consumption leading to lower revenue for the states.

Page | 11


Symphony

Near-term challenges persist

Symphony’s revenue continues to be under pressure as the channel inventory remains

high. Liquidation of this inventory will be a key monitorable for the company in FY21, and

2Q & 3Q performance will remain weak. Over the last 7 years, the company has gained

significant market share from the unorganised sector, and that trend is expected to

continue. Despite increasing competition within air coolers, Symphony has continued to

remain the market leader with 50% of the organised market share. An expanding retailer

footprint and strong e-commerce presence will aid the company’s growth once normalcy

resumes. Cross-selling opportunities via subsidiaries in Australia, USA, Mexico and China

provide Symphony with another growth lever.

Key Takeaways:

▪ Revenue remained under pressure due to high channel inventory. Inventory stood at 40%

of last year’s sales in June. It will continue to impact 2Q and 3Q. Loss of sales during peak

summer has hurt the channel and distributors are wary about stocking up.

▪ Although summer 2020 was weak, the company still expects that air cooler category can

grow at a strong pace.

▪ Symphony has expanded its market share exponentially over the last 7 years. The growth

has been led by expansion in air coolers (double-digit CAGR) and a shift from

unorganised to organised.

▪ The volume split between organised/unorganised is currently 25/75% vs 15/85% 7 years

ago. As the market leader, Symphony is well-positioned to continue to capitalise on this

trend.

▪ Company does not see the entry of a new player as a threat to business; the branded

market is tiny as compared to the unorganised market. Thereby, it is better if more big

players join the air cooler market.

▪ The company has instituted an online-to-offline platform to help reduce the inventory

with its channel partners.

▪ The company is also focusing on maximising on cross-selling opportunities with its

subsidiaries.

▪ Company is confident about achieving healthy traction on industrial and commercial air

cooling in the medium term. Several initiatives have played out over the last 3 years to set

up the infrastructure.

▪ Symphony had seen gross margin pressure in 1QFY21 (45% margin) led by higher sales

spares than air cooler. Management expects 50% gross margins is sustainable in the

business.

▪ The company is focused on reducing discretionary expenditure and securing favourable

deals from OEMs to boost margins.

▪ Additionally, CT is also expected to improve its margin profile over the next few years,

which will support margin expansion for Symphony.

Page | 12


Valuation Summary

Companies CMP (Rs) Mkt Cap

(Rs bn) Rating

EPS (Rs) P/E (x)

FY21E FY22E FY23E FY21E FY22E FY23E

HUL 2,099 4,931 REDUCE 35.4 39.4 43.0 59.2 53.3 48.8

ITC 179 2,204 BUY 11.5 13.0 13.9 15.6 13.8 12.9

Nestle 16,087 1,551 REDUCE 230.5 263.3 300.8 69.8 61.1 53.5

Britannia 3,798 914 REDUCE 79.4 84.9 93.1 47.8 44.7 40.8

Dabur 508 898 REDUCE 9.1 10.1 10.8 55.7 50.2 46.8

GCPL 714 730 REDUCE 15.6 17.4 19.6 45.7 41.0 36.4

Marico 363 468 REDUCE 8.4 9.7 10.8 43.3 37.4 33.6

UNSP 544 395 ADD 6.4 12.4 14.7 84.4 43.7 37.1

Colgate 1,373 373 ADD 31.6 36.0 39.9 43.5 38.1 34.4

Jubilant 2,361 312 REDUCE 18.9 36.3 41.8 125.1 65.0 56.5

Emami 370 165 REDUCE 11.6 12.7 13.5 32.0 29.2 27.5

Radico 452 60 ADD 17.7 22.7 26.4 25.5 19.9 17.1

Havells 674 422 ADD 10.2 14.3 17.1 66.0 47.3 39.4

Voltas 680 225 ADD 13.3 20.3 23.1 51.2 33.5 29.4

Crompton 280 176 ADD 6.0 7.5 8.8 46.6 37.4 31.9

V-Guard 173 74 REDUCE 3.9 5.0 5.7 43.8 34.6 30.1

Symphony 910 64 REDUCE 17.3 25.5 30.6 52.7 35.6 29.7

TTK Prestige 6,305 87 ADD 128.5 163.1 187.6 49.1 38.6 33.6

Page | 13


Rating Criteria

BUY: >+15% return potential

ADD: +5% to +15% return potential

REDUCE: -10% to +5% return potential

SELL: > 10% Downside return potential

Disclosure:

We, Varun Lohchab, PGDM, Naveen Trivedi, MBA & Aditya Sane, CA authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in

this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. HSL has no material adverse disciplinary history as on the date of publication of

this report. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.

Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC

Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication

of the Research Report. Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest.

Any holding in stock –NO

HDFC Securities Limited (HSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475.

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changes. HSL has the right to make changes and modifications at any time.

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Foreign currencies denominated securities, wherever mentioned, are subject to exchange rate fluctuations, which could have an adverse effect on their value or price, or

the income derived from them. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, the values of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency risk.

It should not be considered to be taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security.

This document is not, and should not, be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This report should not

be construed as an invitation or solicitation to do business with HSL. HSL may from time to time solicit from, or perform broking, or other services for, any company

mentioned in this mail and/or its attachments.

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interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.

HSL, its directors, analysts or employees do not take any responsibility, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustained due to the investments made or any

action taken on basis of this report, including but not restricted to, fluctuation in the prices of shares and bonds, changes in the currency rates, diminution in the NAVs,

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HSL and other group companies, its directors, associates, employees may have various positions in any of the stocks, securities and financial instruments dealt in the

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HSL or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from t date of this

report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other

advisory service in a merger or specific transaction in the normal course of business.

HSL or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the

research report. Accordingly, neither HSL nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. Compensation of our

Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. HSL may have issued other reports that are

inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.

Research entity has not been engaged in market making activity for the subject company. Research analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject

company. We have not received any compensation/benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the Research Report.

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East),

Mumbai 400 042 Phone: (022) 3075 3400 Fax: (022) 2496 5066 Compliance Officer: Binkle R. Oza Email: [email protected] Phone: (022) 3045 3600

HDFC Securities Limited, SEBI Reg. No.: NSE, BSE, MSEI, MCX: INZ000186937; AMFI Reg. No. ARN: 13549; PFRDA Reg. No. POP: 11092018; IRDA Corporate Agent

License No.: CA0062; SEBI Research Analyst Reg. No.: INH000002475; SEBI Investment Adviser Reg. No.: INA000011538; CIN - U67120MH2000PLC152193

HDFC securities

Institutional Equities

Unit No. 1602, 16th Floor, Tower A, Peninsula Business Park,

Senapati Bapat Marg, Lower Parel, Mumbai - 400 013

Board: +91-22-6171-7330 www.hdfcsec.com

mailto:[email protected]

21 september 2020 hsie consumer conference hsie consumer

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