1q08 results and comments - banpu.com · 1q08 1.1 2q08f 12.4:1 4.3 4.4 3.1 1.0 0.7 stable output;...

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1 1Q08 results and comments INVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE 21 May 2008

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Page 1: 1Q08 results and comments - banpu.com · 1Q08 1.1 2Q08F 12.4:1 4.3 4.4 3.1 1.0 0.7 Stable output; Stripping ratio unchanged Thai mines are in closure stage due to reserves depletion

1

1Q08 results and commentsINVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE

21 May 2008

Page 2: 1Q08 results and comments - banpu.com · 1Q08 1.1 2Q08F 12.4:1 4.3 4.4 3.1 1.0 0.7 Stable output; Stripping ratio unchanged Thai mines are in closure stage due to reserves depletion

2

DISCLAIMER

The views expressed here contain information derived from publicly available sources that have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information. Any forward looking information in this presentation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect. This presentation should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by Banpu plc. Nothing in this release should be construed as either an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell shares in any jurisdiction.

Page 3: 1Q08 results and comments - banpu.com · 1Q08 1.1 2Q08F 12.4:1 4.3 4.4 3.1 1.0 0.7 Stable output; Stripping ratio unchanged Thai mines are in closure stage due to reserves depletion

3

1. Introduction

2. Focus: Banpu coal pricing

3. Operational review

4. Commercial review

5. Financial review

Page 4: 1Q08 results and comments - banpu.com · 1Q08 1.1 2Q08F 12.4:1 4.3 4.4 3.1 1.0 0.7 Stable output; Stripping ratio unchanged Thai mines are in closure stage due to reserves depletion

4

1. Introduction

Virach MakaranithirojHead of Investor Relations

Page 5: 1Q08 results and comments - banpu.com · 1Q08 1.1 2Q08F 12.4:1 4.3 4.4 3.1 1.0 0.7 Stable output; Stripping ratio unchanged Thai mines are in closure stage due to reserves depletion

5

Banpu in 1Q08 - the figures

Coal sales

4.54 MTDown 0.5 MT

10% Q-Q Coal

7,561

110

1,161

818

Power

1,076

1,425*

1,398

1,256

Revenue

Equity income

EBIT

Net income

Total

8,637

1,535

2,559

2,074

Q-Q

-6%

150%

67%

5%

Unit: Bt. million

* From BLCP, including FX gain Bt504m

Page 6: 1Q08 results and comments - banpu.com · 1Q08 1.1 2Q08F 12.4:1 4.3 4.4 3.1 1.0 0.7 Stable output; Stripping ratio unchanged Thai mines are in closure stage due to reserves depletion

666

2. Focus: Banpu coal pricing

Rawi CorsiriChief Operating Officer

Page 7: 1Q08 results and comments - banpu.com · 1Q08 1.1 2Q08F 12.4:1 4.3 4.4 3.1 1.0 0.7 Stable output; Stripping ratio unchanged Thai mines are in closure stage due to reserves depletion

7

Banpu’s coal products

Barlow Jonker

MCV

Bontang 6250

LCV

Jorong J1

THAIs

Gross Calorific Value (kcal) Total Sulphur Total Moisture Ash

Note: All values are air dried (AD) unless otherwise indicated

4000 6700 0% 2% 10% 30% 0% 20%

6700 0.7% 12.0% 7.0%

6500 - 6550 0.8% 13.5 - 15.5% 4.5 - 5.5%

6250 0.8% 15.5% 4.5 - 5.5%

<6000 1.0 - 1.5% >18% 5.5%

5300 0.3% 30% 4.0%

<5000 2.0% >30% 15.0 -20.0%

Page 8: 1Q08 results and comments - banpu.com · 1Q08 1.1 2Q08F 12.4:1 4.3 4.4 3.1 1.0 0.7 Stable output; Stripping ratio unchanged Thai mines are in closure stage due to reserves depletion

8

Price to quality relationship (2008 indicative)

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

4,500 5,000 6,000 6,700

Regional benchmark*

Gross Calorific Value (air dried basis)

F.O.B. Price

* Barlow Jonker Index (BJI) : Newcastle for Japan

5,500 6,500

MCV

(40% sales)Bontang 6250

(39% sales)

LCV, High S

(5% sales)Jorong J1

(12% sales)

THAIs

(4% sales)

Size of bubble indicative of estimated % of sales tonnage in 2008

Page 9: 1Q08 results and comments - banpu.com · 1Q08 1.1 2Q08F 12.4:1 4.3 4.4 3.1 1.0 0.7 Stable output; Stripping ratio unchanged Thai mines are in closure stage due to reserves depletion

9

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

2Q08

1Q08

4Q07

3Q07

2Q07

1Q07

Contracted prices vs. prevailing benchmark spot prices

% of annually settled contracts for MCV 6500MCV 6500

Contracted ASP

$50 $100 $150

BJI average

primarily contracted for 2008 deliveries

Contracted ASP vs. BJI prices ($/t)

Page 10: 1Q08 results and comments - banpu.com · 1Q08 1.1 2Q08F 12.4:1 4.3 4.4 3.1 1.0 0.7 Stable output; Stripping ratio unchanged Thai mines are in closure stage due to reserves depletion

10

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

Comparison: lag effects on reported Australian ASP’s

There is a ‘lag’ between the time when a sale is contracted and priced and the time of delivery (when ASP is reported)

BJI spot

Reported Australian export ASP’s for previously contracted shipments

$US/t

2007 2008

Price lag between BJI and reported ASP

Source: BJI, Platts, Australian Customs

Negotiation - price is contracted

Delivery – report contract price

ILLUSTRATIVE ONLY

Page 11: 1Q08 results and comments - banpu.com · 1Q08 1.1 2Q08F 12.4:1 4.3 4.4 3.1 1.0 0.7 Stable output; Stripping ratio unchanged Thai mines are in closure stage due to reserves depletion

11

2004/2005 2008

JPU* GC**JPU GC

$2

$4

$3

$4 In 2008, price premiums for Indonesian coals of $3.0 - $4.0 can be achieved when:

Relative re-rating of premium Indonesian coals

Prior to the current coal price boom, discounts of $2.0 -$4.0 were applied

* Japan Power Utilities - Average of annual term contracts to Japan Power Utilities (JPU) shipped from New South Wales and negotiated prior to 1st April of each year

** Global coal - Independent coal indices for Asian shipments from Newcastle, Australia

• Calorific values are similar to South African, Chinese or Australian coals

• Reliable supply can be assured

• Suppliers have an established track record of loading rates

• Direct sales between producer and customer

• Freight differentials are increased

Page 12: 1Q08 results and comments - banpu.com · 1Q08 1.1 2Q08F 12.4:1 4.3 4.4 3.1 1.0 0.7 Stable output; Stripping ratio unchanged Thai mines are in closure stage due to reserves depletion

1212

Conclusion

Banpu coal pricing is influenced by three main factors:

coal quality differentialstime lags in pricingcontractual terms, timing and the point of sale

The net effect creates the differences between Banpu’s ASP and major coal indices such as Barlow JonkerIndex, API#4

Banpu actively manages its sales strategy to maximise margins it can achieve through both tailored products and through cost management of deliveries

Page 13: 1Q08 results and comments - banpu.com · 1Q08 1.1 2Q08F 12.4:1 4.3 4.4 3.1 1.0 0.7 Stable output; Stripping ratio unchanged Thai mines are in closure stage due to reserves depletion

13

3. Operational review

Rawi CorsiriChief Operating Officer

Page 14: 1Q08 results and comments - banpu.com · 1Q08 1.1 2Q08F 12.4:1 4.3 4.4 3.1 1.0 0.7 Stable output; Stripping ratio unchanged Thai mines are in closure stage due to reserves depletion

14

Estimated 2008 production c.20m tonnes (excld. China)

Indominco-Bontang11.5 mt

Jorong3 mt

Thailand0.5 mt

Daning4.0 mt

(Banpu 12.5%)

Trubaindo5.0 mt

100% basis

Hebi1.5 mt(Banpu 40%)

Kitadin

Page 15: 1Q08 results and comments - banpu.com · 1Q08 1.1 2Q08F 12.4:1 4.3 4.4 3.1 1.0 0.7 Stable output; Stripping ratio unchanged Thai mines are in closure stage due to reserves depletion

15

Indonesian and Thai coal production review and outlook

Indominco-BontangCV 6250 - 6500 kcal/kg

3.2

SR 10.5:1

2Q07

12.5:1

0.2

3Q

0.5

2Q07

SR 4.4

Kitadin-EmbalutCV 5800 kcal/kg

JorongCV 5300 kcal/kg

LP-2 / CMMCCV 4000 - 5000 kcal/kg

4.4

3Q07

TrubaindoCV 6550 – 7200 kcal/kg

11.3:1

0.2

4Q

0.8

2Q07 3Q07

SR 5.4

2Q07 3Q07

SR 4.3 4.3

2.7

4Q07

0.7

2Q08F

0.1

1Q08

1.1

2Q08F

12.4:1

4.3

4.4

3.1

1.0

0.7Stable output; Stripping

ratio unchanged

Thai mines are in closure stage due to reserves

depletion

8.0

Seasonal decline in 1Q08 production as

expected

Higher production is expected for following

periods

4Q07

4.3

0.6

4Q07

0.1

4.4

8.5

Evaluating alternatives to utilize

existing assets

2Q08F

2.6

1.0

07

1Q08

2.7

1Q08

9.2

0.9

1Q08

0.7

2Q08F

Page 16: 1Q08 results and comments - banpu.com · 1Q08 1.1 2Q08F 12.4:1 4.3 4.4 3.1 1.0 0.7 Stable output; Stripping ratio unchanged Thai mines are in closure stage due to reserves depletion

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DaningShanxi Province, PRC

CV 6800 – 7300 kcal/kg(Banpu 12.5%)

HZTM(Hebi Zhong Tai Mining)

Henan Province, PRCCV 5300 – 6800 kcal/kg

(Banpu 40%)

China coal operations

Coal price(RMB/t)

Production(Mt)

1Q07

416

0.33

1Q08

Coal price(RMB/t)

Production(Mt)

295

0.55

494

0.35

450

0.58

4Q07

446

0.38

426

1.26

2Q08F

578

0.35

575

1.12

Completed minor capacity increased to 1.5Mtpa;

Further expansion to 2Mtpa is under consideration

Relocation of longwallhas briefly interrupted

1Q08 production

Page 17: 1Q08 results and comments - banpu.com · 1Q08 1.1 2Q08F 12.4:1 4.3 4.4 3.1 1.0 0.7 Stable output; Stripping ratio unchanged Thai mines are in closure stage due to reserves depletion

17

Total revenue

Availability Payment (AP)

Energy Payment (EP)

Dispatch (%)

Operating cost

EBIT

EBITDA

Power Thailand : BLCP

1Q/2008

5,339

2,899

2,231

95%

2,422

2,366

2,846

Q-Q

39%

56%

25%

7%

142%

88%

Units: Bt. Million(100% basis)

Equity income 1Q08

Bt 1,425 m** Based on Banpu’s 50% interest;

including FX gain Bt504million

4Q/2007

3,853

1,856

1,789

70%

2,267

979

1,513

Page 18: 1Q08 results and comments - banpu.com · 1Q08 1.1 2Q08F 12.4:1 4.3 4.4 3.1 1.0 0.7 Stable output; Stripping ratio unchanged Thai mines are in closure stage due to reserves depletion

18

Power China : BPIC

* Unaudited figures

** Including transportation

Sales* (USD m)

EBITDA (USD m)

Utilization (Hours)

Power tariff (RMB/kwh)

Coal price**(RMB/t)

(100% basis)

LuannanHebei Province, PRCPower 100MW; Steam 128tph(Banpu 100% )

ZhengdingHebei Province, PRCPower 48MW;Steam 180tph(100%)

1Q08

Start Unit#1 FGD project

4Q07

1Q07

Second phase (hot water) completed; expansion for

other lines have commenced

ZoupingShandong Province, PRCPower 100MW;Steam 490tph(70%)

Third phase (25MW) Expansion commercial

operation in Jan 08

10.8 3.3 1,763 0.42 51810.0 1.7 1,712 0.42 489

4Q07 7.6 2.2 2,343 0.34 414

1Q07 8.1 1.7 1,681 0.32 478

4Q07 14.9 2.7 2,551 0.32 522

9.1 4.0 1,669 0.42 419

1Q07 6.5 2.2 2,110 0.34 376

1Q08 8.4 2.5 2,230 0.34 459

1Q08 14.1 -2.1 1,922 0.32 629

Page 19: 1Q08 results and comments - banpu.com · 1Q08 1.1 2Q08F 12.4:1 4.3 4.4 3.1 1.0 0.7 Stable output; Stripping ratio unchanged Thai mines are in closure stage due to reserves depletion

19

4. Commercial review

Rawi CorsiriChief Operating Officer

Page 20: 1Q08 results and comments - banpu.com · 1Q08 1.1 2Q08F 12.4:1 4.3 4.4 3.1 1.0 0.7 Stable output; Stripping ratio unchanged Thai mines are in closure stage due to reserves depletion

20

102030405060708090

100110120130140

1Q02

2Q02

3Q02

4Q02

1Q03

2Q03

3Q03

4Q03

1Q04

2Q04

3Q04

4Q04

1Q05

2Q05

3Q05

4Q05

1Q06

2Q06

3Q06

4Q06

1Q07

2Q07

3Q07

4Q07

1Q08

2Q08

e

BJI

Weighted avg

Indominco

ASP 1q08 : $49.39 / tonne

ASP 2008e : $65 / tonne

US$/Tonne BJI* May 16, 2008

$131.90

Chinese winter cuts exportS. Africa electricity cutdisrupts mining operation

Australia flooding cuts export

Average Selling Prices (ASP)

Note: *Barlow Jonker Index (BJI) based on CV 6,700 kcal/kg GAD from Australia to JapanSource: Barlow Jonker

China resumes export

Page 21: 1Q08 results and comments - banpu.com · 1Q08 1.1 2Q08F 12.4:1 4.3 4.4 3.1 1.0 0.7 Stable output; Stripping ratio unchanged Thai mines are in closure stage due to reserves depletion

21

9%

9%

81%

1%

Approx. 20 MT

Contracted & Priced

Contracted & Unpriced

Uncontracted

Very strong global import demand through 2008 and 2009

Thai and Indonesian low CV grades sold out

Gradually committing remaining high CV grades

EU contracts linked to API # 4

Japanese sales established premiums over Australian coals

Also, ‘quality company premiums’evident in Banpu prices relative to smaller Indonesia producers

Contracted & Indexed

Indicative 2008 coal sales

Page 22: 1Q08 results and comments - banpu.com · 1Q08 1.1 2Q08F 12.4:1 4.3 4.4 3.1 1.0 0.7 Stable output; Stripping ratio unchanged Thai mines are in closure stage due to reserves depletion

22

Coal sales by geographic destination

INDIA

0.1 Mt

ITALY

OTHERS*

1.2Mt

0.2 Mt

0.3 Mt

THAILAND

CHINA

0.5 Mt

0.8 MtPHILIPPINES0.2 Mt

0.4 MtINDONESIA

JAPAN

0.9 Mt

TAIWAN

0.5 Mt

0.6 Mt

S.KOREA

*Includes small, non-regular purchasers

Mid-to-High CV

Low-to-Mid CV

Total coal sales volume: 4.54Mt in 1Q08

Page 23: 1Q08 results and comments - banpu.com · 1Q08 1.1 2Q08F 12.4:1 4.3 4.4 3.1 1.0 0.7 Stable output; Stripping ratio unchanged Thai mines are in closure stage due to reserves depletion

23

5. Financial review

Somruedee SomphongChief Financial Officer

Page 24: 1Q08 results and comments - banpu.com · 1Q08 1.1 2Q08F 12.4:1 4.3 4.4 3.1 1.0 0.7 Stable output; Stripping ratio unchanged Thai mines are in closure stage due to reserves depletion

24

Sales revenues : coal and power

Note : Revenues from other businesses (e.g. industrial minerals) are not included

240

Units: Bt. million

1Q07 Indominco JorongTrubaindo Coal Thailand

4Q07

(606) 11 (54)(38)

1Q08

6,667

8,612

BPIC

(88)

Sales volume decreased 0.5mt due to seasonal variation

9,209

-6%Q on Q

+29%Y on Y

Inter Trade

(61)

Kitadin

Page 25: 1Q08 results and comments - banpu.com · 1Q08 1.1 2Q08F 12.4:1 4.3 4.4 3.1 1.0 0.7 Stable output; Stripping ratio unchanged Thai mines are in closure stage due to reserves depletion

25

189

10

637

1,561

3,353

197

61

649

1,737

5,3634,756

1,977

659

143Thai mines

Kitadin-Embalut

Jorong

Trubaindo

Indominco

Bt. million GPM Sales revenue

Thai mines

Jorong

Trubaindo

Kitadin-Embalut

Indominco36%37%

40%

33%

44%

14%

-1%3%16%

43%

35%

29%

1Q08

4Q07

1Q07

Avg. gross margin for coal in 1Q08 at 37%

34%39%

Page 26: 1Q08 results and comments - banpu.com · 1Q08 1.1 2Q08F 12.4:1 4.3 4.4 3.1 1.0 0.7 Stable output; Stripping ratio unchanged Thai mines are in closure stage due to reserves depletion

26

Consolidated EBITDA

Units: Bt. million

(21) +16 (170)

+870

Gross profit

SG&A Equity Otherincomes

D&Acoal

4Q07 1Q08

+148

1,876

2,708

2,921

1Q07

Coal sales revenue decreased 6% QoQ

+3

Royaltyincomes

EBITDA*Power

+53

Higher Equity income from

BLCP

Coal Bt1,460m

Power Bt1,461m+147% Q on Q-4% Y on Y

+14% Q on Q+24% Y on Y

Otherexpenses

+147

+8%Y on Y+56%Q on Q

* Include FX

Page 27: 1Q08 results and comments - banpu.com · 1Q08 1.1 2Q08F 12.4:1 4.3 4.4 3.1 1.0 0.7 Stable output; Stripping ratio unchanged Thai mines are in closure stage due to reserves depletion

27

Consolidated net profit

Units: Bt. million

EBIT4Q07

2,074

1Q07 1Q08FXFinancial charges

Non-recurring

1,194

1,983

+74%Y on Y

OperatingTax

+5%Q on Q

Net ProfitPOWER

Coal Bt818m

Power Bt1,256m+587% Q on Q+3% Y on Y

-55% Q on Q

+28 (24) (16) +258(1,256) +1,073

Minority

+27

Higher Equity income from

BLCP

Gain on Investment in subsidiaries in 4Q07

Page 28: 1Q08 results and comments - banpu.com · 1Q08 1.1 2Q08F 12.4:1 4.3 4.4 3.1 1.0 0.7 Stable output; Stripping ratio unchanged Thai mines are in closure stage due to reserves depletion

28

Organic capital expenditure plans 2008

35

15

13.5

12.5

40

116

Bontang port expansion

Bharinto Bontangpower plant

IndomincoEast Block

Improvement initiatives

Total 2008

Indominco underground

Indominco electrification

Trubaindo mobile crusher, wash plant

Tandung Mayang fleet expansion

The capital expenditure figures shown above do not include estimates for maintenance or sustaining capital expenditure.

Units: USD million

Page 29: 1Q08 results and comments - banpu.com · 1Q08 1.1 2Q08F 12.4:1 4.3 4.4 3.1 1.0 0.7 Stable output; Stripping ratio unchanged Thai mines are in closure stage due to reserves depletion

29

0.130.14

0.66

0.34

0.22

2004 2005 2006 2007 1Q08

91

Balance sheet

Debt structureNet D/E (Times)

Net gearing (%)

As end of March 2008

18%

25%

40%

Floating 48% Fixed 52%

12% 11%

Page 30: 1Q08 results and comments - banpu.com · 1Q08 1.1 2Q08F 12.4:1 4.3 4.4 3.1 1.0 0.7 Stable output; Stripping ratio unchanged Thai mines are in closure stage due to reserves depletion

30

Question & Answer

Page 31: 1Q08 results and comments - banpu.com · 1Q08 1.1 2Q08F 12.4:1 4.3 4.4 3.1 1.0 0.7 Stable output; Stripping ratio unchanged Thai mines are in closure stage due to reserves depletion

31

Operating profit

Units: Bt. million

Sales revenues – Power (BPIC) 1,076Cost of sales (5,789)Gross profit* 2,848 -5% 15%

GPM 33%

1Q08 QoQ % YoY %

8,637 -6% 29%Sales revenues – Coal

Total sales revenues*

7,536 -6% 31%

Gross profit - Coal 2,763 -1% 26%Gross profit – Power (BPIC) 74

-8% 17%

-62% -72%

917(4,220)2,480

37%

1Q07

6,7005,750

2,197260

1,164(6,198)2,987

33%

4Q07

9,1857,981

2,783193

Note: * Including other business

GPM – Power (BPIC)GPM - Coal

7%37%

28%38%

17%35%

Page 32: 1Q08 results and comments - banpu.com · 1Q08 1.1 2Q08F 12.4:1 4.3 4.4 3.1 1.0 0.7 Stable output; Stripping ratio unchanged Thai mines are in closure stage due to reserves depletion

3232

Operating profit

Units: Bt. million

Gross profit 2,848 2,480 -5% 15%GPM 33% 37%SG&A (989) (826)Royalty (880) (671)

Dividend income – Coal & Power - -Other income 146 58

EBIT 2,559 2,268 67% 13%

EBITDA 2,921 2,708 56% -7%

1Q08 1Q07 QoQ % YoY %

EBIT - Coal 1,161 815 2% 42%EBIT - Power 1,398 1,454

Income from associates 1,535 1,306

250% -4%

EBITDA - Coal 1,460 1,181 14% 24%EBITDA - Power 1,462 1,527 147% -4%

Other expenses - Operations (101) (79)

2,98733%

(1,029)(884)

-92

1,532

1,876

1,133399

614

1,284592

(248)

4Q07

Page 33: 1Q08 results and comments - banpu.com · 1Q08 1.1 2Q08F 12.4:1 4.3 4.4 3.1 1.0 0.7 Stable output; Stripping ratio unchanged Thai mines are in closure stage due to reserves depletion

33

Units: Bt. million

EBITInterest expenses (225)Financial expenses (38)Income tax (core business) (326)Minorities (126)Net profit before extra items 1,843Non-recurring items* 107Income tax (non-core business) -Net profit before FX 1,950 47%FX translations 124Net profit 2,074 74%EPS (Bt/share) 7.63

Note: * Income from non-core assets and other non-operating expenses

YoY %1Q08

Net profit

11%

(273)(46)

(263)(22)

1,664(96)

(237)1,330(137)1,1944.39

-8%

5%

107%

2,559 2,268 67% 13%

(282)(34)

(173)(154)890

1,362(135)2,117(134)1,9837.30

1,532

1Q07 QoQ %4Q07