2005 annual model assessment
DESCRIPTION
2005 Annual Model Assessment. Jeffrey S. Sweeney University of Maryland Chesapeake Bay Program Office [email protected] 410-267-9844 Tributary Strategy Workgroup Meeting Chesapeake Bay Program Office October 2, 2006. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
2005 Annual Model Assessment
Jeffrey S. SweeneyUniversity of Maryland
Chesapeake Bay Program [email protected]
410-267-9844
Tributary Strategy Workgroup MeetingChesapeake Bay Program Office
October 2, 2006
21.0 18.2 17.8 17.2 16.9 12.6
120.1109.2 108.4 106.6 106.3
71.9
8.3
3.6 4.1 3.5 2.9
2.4
82.4
56.7 57.7 56.9 55.4
37.3
7.5
7.1 6.8 6.6 6.5
4.7
92.2
77.8 75.4 74.4 72.5
51.4
5.9
5.0 4.9 4.9 4.7
2.9
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1985 2002 2003 2004 2005 (9/ 14/ 06DRAFT)
2010 Cap LoadAllocation
(million lbs
TN
/year)
NY PA DC MD WV VA DE
Nitrogen Loads Delivered to the Chesapeake Bay By Jurisdiction
Point source loads reflect measured discharges while nonpoint source loads are based on an average-hydrology year
337.5
277.7 275.1 270.2
183.1
265.3
87.758.4 61.2 57.3 55.0
183.1
149.4
113.9 108.2 106.7 104.5
38.7
41.2 41.2 41.0 40.7
30.6
30.7 30.5 30.7 30.7
17.6
18.0 18.2 18.5 18.5
10.1
12.1 12.2 12.3 12.3
3.5
3.5 3.5 3.6 3.5
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1985 2002 2003 2004 2005 (9/ 14/ 06DRAFT)
2010 Cap LoadAllocation
(million lbs
TN
/year)
Point Source Agriculture Forest Urban Runoff Mixed Open Septic Water Dep
Nitrogen Loads Delivered to the Chesapeake Bay By Source Point source loads reflect measured discharges while
nonpoint source loads are based on an average-hydrology year
337.5
277.7 275.1 270.2
183.1
265.3
2005 Annual Model Assessment
• Point Sourceso Point source discharges have only been updated for MD, VA
and DC. o Point source discharges for NY, PA, WV, and DE will be revised
within the next two weeks.
• Landuses and Animalso Trends in landuses and animals are interpolations of Phase 4.3
2000 and 2010 (Tributary Strategy) base conditions.
• Conservation-Tillageo Mostly using 1998 CTIC (Conservation Technology Information
Center) Crop Residue Management data. 2002 updates for MD . . . and WV. Hope to obtain 2002 and 2004 for all jurisdictions but not before
2005 annual model assessment is final.
2005 Annual Model Assessment
• Poultry Phytaseo All jurisdictions given credit for “16%” reduction from pre-phytase
condition for layers, broilers, and turkeys. Beyond “16%” requires data from jurisdictions.
• Poultry Litter Transporto MD transporting to PA, DE, VA, within state, and out of CB watershed. o WV transporting within state and out of CB watershed. o DE transporting to PA, MD, VA, within state, and out of CB watershed. o All states transporting within state = within model segment.
• Atmospheric Depositiono All jurisdictions credited with lower atmospheric deposition of nitrogen
as assessed through trends in monitoring data used in calibration of the Phase 5 Watershed Model.
Benefits of NOx SIP Call and other air programs. o TSWG Decision – Is deposition reduction correct or defensible?
Historic and Projected Atmospheric Deposition to the Chesapeake Bay Watershed and Tidal Waters
244
291
411414416
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
(million lbs.
TN
/year)
ModeledCAIR+CAMR+BAR
T
Monitored
244
291
411414416
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
(million lbs.
TN
/year)
Historic and Projected Atmospheric Deposition to the Chesapeake Bay Watershed
NADP/NTN + Atmospheric Integrated Research Monitoring Network
(AirMoN)
Models-3/Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System)
• Provides estimates of N deposition resulting from changes in precursor
emissions from utility, mobile, and industrial sources due to management actions or
growth. • Adjusts deposition determined by wet-fall
concentration model and precipitation volumes
• Predicts the influence of source loads from one region on deposition in other regions. • Provides estimates of wet:dry for NO3
- and NH4
-.
Modeled Monitored
244
291
411414416
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
(million lbs.
TN
/year)
Historic Atmospheric Deposition to the Chesapeake Bay Watershed
Apply daily NH4+ and NO3- concentration model results to daily precipitation from a high resolution hourly precipitation model developed by the USGS for river modeling
segment in the CB watershed.
Monitored
Mean annual (1985-2001)
Nitrate ion wet deposition, 2004
Before and After Implementation of Title IV of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990
Mean Annual Wet Deposition of Nitrate
Before: 1983-1994 After: 1995-2004
416.3 414.4 411.2
290.6
243.6
210.5 210.2 209.6191.2 184.0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Cap Load Allocationw/ 1990 Deposition
Cap Load Allocationw/ 1996 Deposition
Cap Load Allocationw/ 2001 Deposition
Cap Load Allocationw/ Projected 2010
Deposition
Cap Load Allocationw/ Projected 2020
Deposition
(million lbs.
TN
/year)
Atmospheric Deposition Chesapeake Bay Loads
Response in Chesapeake Bay Loads to Changes in Atmospheric Deposition
Atmospheric Deposition to Watershed
26%
Atmospheric Deposition to Tidal
Waters7%
Chemical Fertilizers - Urban10%Chemical Fertilizers
- Agriculture15%
Manure - Agriculture
18%
Municipal & Industrial
Wastewater20%
Septic4%
Sources of Nitrogen Loads to the Chesapeake Bay
• Sources of nitrogen loads from land areas are based on the relative inputs of natural and anthropogenic sources.
• Point source loads reflect measured discharges while nonpoint source loads are based on an average-hydrology year.
• All inputs and outputs assessed for and by the Chesapeake Bay Program Phase 4.3 Watershed Model.
Primary Sources of
Atmospheric Deposition
• Vehicles and mobile sources
• Electric utilities,
industry & stationary
sources• Livestock & fertilized soil
emissions• Lightning & forest soils
2004(291 million lbs./year)
1.14 1.02 1.02 0.95 0.92 0.59
4.443.58 3.58 3.61 3.61
2.26
0.160.12 0.14 0.13 0.12
0.34
6.77
3.97 3.83 3.82 3.81
2.92
0.57
0.57 0.63 0.65 0.64
0.37
13.46
9.84 9.74 9.21 8.96
6.00
0.60
0.40 0.370.37 0.34
0.30
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1985 2002 2003 2004 2005 (9/ 14/ 06DRAFT)
2010 Cap LoadAllocation
(million lbs
TP/year)
NY PA DC MD WV VA DE
Phosphorus Loads Delivered to the Chesapeake Bay By Jurisdiction
Point source loads reflect measured discharges while nonpoint source loads are based on an average-hydrology year
27.13
19.49 19.31 18.75
12.78
18.41
9.17
4.30 4.52 4.24 4.10
12.78
11.57
9.23 8.80 8.46 8.25
0.38
0.41 0.410.41 0.40
3.73
3.18 3.153.16 3.17
2.12
2.21 2.262.31 2.33
0.16
0.16 0.160.16 0.16
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1985 2002 2003 2004 2005 (9/ 14/ 06DRAFT)
2010 Cap LoadAllocation
(million lbs
TP/year)
Point Source Agriculture Forest Urban Runoff Mixed Open Water Dep
Phosphorus Loads Delivered to the Chesapeake Bay By Source
Point source loads reflect measured discharges while nonpoint source loads are based on an average-hydrology year
27.13
19.49 19.31 18.75
12.78
18.41
0.172 0.145 0.141 0.135 0.135 0.131
1.244 1.112 1.118 1.138 1.133 0.995
0.0060.006 0.006 0.006 0.006
0.006
1.252
1.011 0.998 0.995 0.990
0.712
0.413
0.341 0.328 0.323 0.319
0.320
2.693
2.379 2.359 2.270 2.234
1.941
0.054
0.055 0.054 0.055 0.054
0.042
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1985 2002 2003 2004 2005 (9/ 14/ 06DRAFT)
2010 Cap LoadAllocation
(million t
ons
SED
/year)
NY PA DC MD WV VA DE
Sediment Loads Delivered to the Chesapeake Bay By Jurisdiction
5.834
5.048 5.004 4.922
4.147
4.870
4.074
3.171 3.130 3.034
0.969
0.997 0.996 0.998 0.995
0.413
0.488 0.480 0.484 0.485
0.377
0.391 0.398 0.406 0.411
4.147
2.978
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1985 2002 2003 2004 2005 (9/ 14/ 06DRAFT)
2010 Cap LoadAllocation
(million t
ons
SED
/year)
Agriculture Forest Urban Runoff Mixed Open
Sediment Loads Delivered to the Chesapeake Bay By Source
5.834
5.048 5.004 4.922
4.147
4.870
2005 Annual Model Assessment
• All recommended changes to the 9/14/06 draft 2005 annual model assessment are due to the CBP office Tuesday 10/10/06.