(2009)psychologist george brander dtio-tio dstl targeted individuals in information operations
DESCRIPTION
This is a document taken from the following MOD website:http://www.science.mod.uk/events/event_detail.aspx?eventid=55 George Brander is a psychologist employed by the Directorate of Targeting and Information Operations. He makes references in this document to what happens to people who are targeted. Judging by the front page he is or was the Team Leader of the Cyber and Influence division of DSTLTRANSCRIPT
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© Crown Copyright, Dstl23 November, 2009
Understanding & Influencingin Cyberspace
George Brander - TL InfluenceCyber & Influence S & T Centre
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© Crown Copyright, Dstl23 November, 2009
Scope of Presentation
Influence and the importance of ‘people’ in military operations
One model of how influence works
Who do we want to influence?
Cyberspace as a domain
What do we need to understand – the requirement
Research framework
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Definitions
Influence Activities [1]
“…affect the character or behaviour of an individual, group or organisation: they realise cognitive effects.
Whilst activities in the physical domain will undoubtedly have such effects….the focus of Information Activities is in the information domain.”
[1] Joint Doctrine Note 1/07
“Fighting battles is not about territory, it is about people, attitudes and perceptions. The battleground is there.”
The importance of the human factor The importance of the human factor ……..
General Sir Michael Jackson(Feb 2000)
“In a counter-insurgency the terrain is the people, rather than
bridges and hills and forests. You have to understand tribes, leaders
& the economic forces at work.”
General Stanley McChrystal(Speigel – Jan 2010)
SYNCHRONISED
EFFECT
cognitive domain
BEHAVIOUR
can change
achieves a can constrain
causes a
can influencecreates a
Physical Effect
Psychological Effect
Perceptual Effect
can create
can create
How activities have an effect on behaviour
enablesnew
ACTIVITY
Technology itselfTECHNOLOGY
Physical Effect Perceptual EffectPsych Effect
PSYCHOLOGICAL EFFECTShock & Surprise Fear and PanicStress and TraumaFeelings of HopelessnessFeelings of HelplessnessDetermination / ResolveAlienationHabituationDenialLoss of FaceSocial InteractionGroup Participation
PERCEPTIONRisk of action outweighs
benefitI’ve been spottedMy cover’s been blownConflict is escalatingThey mean businessI’m not in controlSelf-doubt / RealisationLoss of normalityDifficulties in achieving
goal (impediments) I’m not safeI’m being watchedI’m being punished I’m being victimisedSomething has / has not
happened
PHYSICAL EFFECTDestructionDenialDisruptionDelivered AidDropped LeafletsDominated Air Space
Some examples of effects
Who do we want to influence?
Personality
Culture
Group
WiderWiderAudienceAudience
IndividualIndividual
GroupGroup
TeamTeam
Key leaders & decision-makers with whom direct interaction is possible. Opinion formers whose activities may help or hinder us.
Hostile or potentially hostile groups with whom direct interaction may not be possible. Examples include insurgent teams, military units, etc.
Uncommitted groups (segments) within the population whose attitudes, opinions and behaviours impact on our future success.
in context: Information Environmentin context: Information Environment
Information availableInformation available
Trusted SourcesTrusted Sources
Social Social commscomms
TelecommsTelecomms
MediaMedia‘‘MassMass’’ or or ‘‘NewNew’’’’
Preferred ContentPreferred ContentInformation
EnvironmentInformation
Environment
PersonalityPersonality
Culture
Group
Wider Context
and within the wider situationand within the wider situation…………
Information availableInformation available
Trusted SourcesTrusted Sources
Social Social commscomms
TelecommsTelecomms
MediaMedia‘‘MassMass’’ or or ‘‘NewNew’’’’
Preferred ContentPreferred ContentInformationEnvironmentInformation
Environment
PersonalityPersonality
Culture
Group
GeopoliticsGeopolitics
NeighboursNeighbours / Allies/ Allies
Access to ResourcesAccess to Resources
Local power brokersLocal power brokers
World eventsWorld eventsimpacting perceptionsimpacting perceptions
andandHostile InfluencersHostile Influencers
Definitions & emerging requirements
Cyberspace, as part of the information dimension, [2] is as much a part of the contemporary operating environment as the land, sea or air. Moreover, as identified by the National Security Strategy (NSS), it is ‘the most important new domain in national security of recent years’. [3] Its existence is undeniable, and has been for a period of decades, yet it remains a poorly understood domain which is all-too-often seen as the preserve of computer specialists.
[2] JDP 0-01, British Defence Doctrine (3rd Edition), (UK: MoD, 2008), para.240.[3] National Security Strategy: Annual Update 2009, (UK: Cabinet Office), Jun 09, para.46.
Influence Activities [1]“…affect the character or behaviour of an individual, group or organisation: they realise cognitive effects.
Whilst activities in the physical domain will undoubtedly have such effects….the focus of Information Activities is in the information domain.”
[1] Joint Doctrine Note 1/07
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Need to understand different things
Less concern with - What, Where and WhenMore interest in - Who, Why and How
Increasing recognition of the need to understand cultureGrowing appreciation of the importance of perceptions
A recognition that the cyber domain is important
The focus here is on people & technology, rather than on statistics and the evolution of cyberspace and its associated technologies.
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Cyberspace:
people & technology ortechnology enabled applications?
Second Life Twitter
World ofWarcraft
YouTubeFacebook
APP store
Second Life Twitter
World ofWarcraft
YouTubeFacebook
APP store
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Technology is important to us!
you can take it with you….
Paper technology has become part of the things that the Chinese diaspora burns during funeral practices. Along with more traditional things like paper money to ensure a good life in the next world, some people now also burn paper cell phones so that their ancestors can talk to each other.
from People and Practices Research Group at INTEL Genevieve Bell, Anthropologist
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“The kitten killer of Hangzhou”Chinese human-flesh search engines
On-line vigilante justice on Chinese internet forums where netizens collectively hunt down and punish those who have angered them.
Does collective action in this form resonate with Chinese culture? Is this a culturally specific phenomenon? Why is it surprising to us?Could we forecast where other types of collective activity might emerge?
Richard Bartle meets David McClellandMUDs and Motivational Needs
Achieversregard points-gathering and rising in levels as their main goal, and
all is ultimately subserviant to this
Explorersdelight in having the game expose its internal machinations to them
Socialisers interested in people, and what they have to say. Game merely backdrop, common ground
where things happen to players
Killersget their kicks from imposing
themselves on others
Achievementseeks attainment of goals and
advancement. Need for feed-back, accomplishment & progress
Scientists / Nerds???
Affiliationneed for friendships, interaction and
to be liked
Power authority motivated, needs to influence & make an impact. Need to lead & increase status and prestige
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and is addressed by Nick Yee
Nick Yee (Palo Alto) in 2006: extends Bartle’s taxonomy of players and empirically introduces other categories such as those who socialise in order to engage in teamwork.
Cyber Psychology and Behaviour, Volume 9, No 6. 2006Achievement Social Immersion Advancement Socialising Discovery Mechanics Relationship Role-playing Competition Teamwork Customisation Escapism
NEWMEDIA
Cyber activityCyber activityCyberspace enables new forms of social activity
Cyber activity may lead tonew forms of social activity
Human & Social Behaviour(that we wish to understand, and influence its behaviour)
Social activitySocial activityOLD
MEDIA
FOCUS AREAS INDIVIDUAL TEAM / GROUP WIDER AUDIENCE
• What is the relationship between online and off-line human and social behaviour?
UNDERPINNING HUMAN & SOCIAL
SCIENCE
• How do we observe and analyse online human and social behaviour?
INFORMATION GATHERING & ANALYSIS
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• How do we engage with, shape or influence human and social behaviour in cyberspace?
ENGAGEMENT, PERSUASION,
INFLUENCE
The framework: what is needed (wide range)
FOCUS AREAS INDIVIDUAL TEAM / GROUP WIDER AUDIENCE
• What is the relationship between online and off-line human and social behaviour?
UNDERPINNING HUMAN & SOCIAL
SCIENCE
• How do we observe and analyse online human and social behaviour?
INFORMATION GATHERING & ANALYSIS
I
• How do we engage with, shape or influence human and social behaviour in cyberspace?
ENGAGEMENT, PERSUASION,
INFLUENCE
The framework: what is needed (social science)
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FOCUS AREAS INDIVIDUAL TEAM / GROUP WIDER AUDIENCE
• What is the relationship between online and off-line human and social behaviour?
UNDERPINNING HUMAN & SOCIAL
SCIENCE
• Are online personae real or
‘authentic’? In what way? • How much does the online self
reveal about the personality of the ‘real self’?
• Do group & social norms evolve
‘on-line’ in the same way as in the real world?
• Can the loose ties of connected individuals online transition into tightly bonded groups?
• How does social identity and social
influence operate online? • Are protest or ‘neighbourhood watch’
groups different on-line? Will people ‘participate’ more online and why?
• How do we observe and analyse online human and social behaviour?
INFORMATION GATHERING & ANALYSIS
• How can we verify the identity
& credibility of individuals that have only virtual presence?
• Do linguistic analysis techniques apply on-line, i.e. in Texts, on Twitter?
• How to study online groups? Can
we use existing social media / games or will we need to develop our own?
• Is online group activity sufficient or does it necessarily lead to off-line activity?
• How can we use new media to better
assess public opinion and attitudes? • What defines ‘key voices’ or opinion
formers on-line? What analyses might support this identification?
• How do we engage with, shape or influence human and social behaviour in cyberspace?
ENGAGEMENT, PERSUASION,
INFLUENCE
• How does communications
synchronicity impact on the development of online interpersonal relationships?
• How is trust created / lost?
• What causes online groups to lose
coherence, change goals, fragment?
• How does a ‘newcomer’ establish credibility / rapport with a virtual group?
• How can social marketing go wrong?
Can we learn from others’ mistakes? • How can we use immersive games as
a channel for our messages?
The framework: what is needed (examples)
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For the proposals…..
I discouragePurely technical research on establishing identityBuilding new virtual worlds for experimentationToo much concentration on trainingDevelopment of new O/S mining & analysis enginesToo much focus on CSCWToo much focus on Web Science
I encourageTheory based approaches drawing on social scienceExperimental and multi-disciplinary researchUnderpinning science that addresses ‘so what?’ questionMethods and approaches that have demonstrable utilityNovel ideas and concepts that will be ‘game changing’.
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Some random ideas & thought experiments
Will thin-slicing work in cyberspace?What would an on-line polygraph look like?Will people learn to better maintain distinct identities?Can individual & group motivations & attitudes be assessed in Can individual & group motivations & attitudes be assessed in cyberspace?cyberspace?How can we better understand the How can we better understand the ‘‘cultureculture’’ of cyberspace as it of cyberspace as it continues to evolve?continues to evolve?Will cyberspace demand new forms of information collection & Will cyberspace demand new forms of information collection & analysis?analysis?
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The Call
What we are looking for…
• Proposals by CDE process• Likely duration of 12 months• Full or partial MOD funding• Larger number of lower value (£20-£50K) proposals• Call has phase 1 funding for circa £500K in FY2010/11
When are we doing it…
• 22nd April – CDE Seminar• 7th June – Call Closes• 21st June – Decision Conference• 5th July – Target for Contract Placement