2010 outlook & forecast: mobile & wireless communications
TRANSCRIPT
1
2010 Outlook & Forecast
Mobile & Wireless Communications
J. Gerry Purdy, Ph.D.
VP & Chief Analyst
Mobile & Wireless Communications
North America
Analyst Briefing
December 1, 2009
22
Wireless Subscribers:
Past, Present & Forecast
3
Worldwide Wireless Subscriber Market
Description 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
World Mobile Subscribers 1960.0 2281.8 2591.3 2824.5 3022.3 3203.6 3363.8 3531.0 3685.6
World Population 6575 6625 6675 6726 6778 6831 6885 6940 6997
World Mobile Penetration 30% 34% 39% 42% 45% 47% 49% 51% 53%
4
US Wireless Subscriber Market
Description 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
U.S. Population 291.0 294.0 297.0 300.0 303.0 306.0 309.0 312.0 315.0 318.0 321.0
U.S. Mobile Subscribers 182.1 208 233 249 267 281 295 307 316 325 333
U.S. Mobile Penetration 63% 71% 78% 83% 88% 92% 95% 98% 100% 102% 104%
55
Wireless Handset Sales:
Past, Present & Forecast
6
Global Mobile Device Forecast
Source: Frost & Sullivan
7
Global Smartphone Device Forecast
Source: Frost & Sullivan
8
Global Smartphone Device Market Share
Global Smartphone Market Share (2008) Global Smartphone Market Share Forecast (2014)
Chart 2.3: Global Smartphone Market Share Forecasts
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Nokia will see increased competition, but will remain the global leader.With devices like the iPhone from Apple, the Magic and Dream from HTC, and the Tour from Research in Motion, and upcoming smartphones from the likes of Samsung and LG, Nokia will continue to see its dominant foothold on the smartphone market shrink from 44% today, to around 36% in 2014. RIM should continue to hold around 17% of the market, while companies like Apple, HTC, Samsung, and LG should account for a large part of the bite out of Nokia’s share of the market.
9
Global Smartphone Operating System Forecast
Source: Frost & Sullivan
10
Global Smartphone Operating System Market Share
Global Smartphone OS Market Share (2008) Global Smartphone OS Market Share Forecast (2014)
Chart 2.5: Global Smartphone OS Market Share Forecasts
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Android will make the biggest jump in market share by 2014.Due to the low cost and availability of the Android OS, it is expected to grow from approximately 1% of the global smartphone market to the third largest share – 12% by 2014. This could become the fastest growth for a mobile product in the history of the mobile industry.
Apple will remain strong, but is limited by its proprietary model.Although the iPhone is the most popular product on the market, ultimately, Apple will be limited by having fewer models available. This could change if Apple decides to release multiple iPhone product lines similar to its business model with the iPod product.
11
North American Smartphone Operating System Forecast
12
North American Mobile Operating System Market Share
North American Mobile Operating System Market Share (2008)
North American Mobile Operating System Market Share Forecast (2014)
Chart 3.2: North America Smartphone OS Market Share Forecasts
RIM maintains the dominant smartphone OS in North America, but their market share will be significantly reduced by 2014.With 58% of the North American smartphone market share, RIM hasn’t had a lot of competition from its competitors. Although Apple has been successful with it’s iPhone product, it hasn’t been able to gain on the breadth of RIM’s blackberry product line. Windows Mobile has been limited by licensing fees and underperformance. However, with the introduction of Android and Palm WebOS, competition and products will be coming from all angles. This competition should provide the variety in the North American smartphone market that will really fuel the growth of the market as a whole.
1313
Mobile & Wireless:
2010 Outlook
14
2010 Mobile & Wireless Trends
• App Stores explode
o Device manufacturers, carriers, 3rd parties
o Make vs. buy
o Next new thing in Apps: Mobile Application Generators
• eBooks finally enter mainstream
o Kindle followed by Nook followed by Plastic Logic followed by Apple
o Barnes & Noble
• Mobile ad exchanges
o Google buys AdMob
o Exchanges serve agencies which serve brands
• Mac increases market share
o Outlook for the Mac & conversion tools will make a difference
o Windows 7 is good (finally) but Windows Mobile isn’t great
15
2010 Mobile & Wireless Trends
• SmartPhone OS platform wars
o The stakes are very high ($ billions at stake)
o Android, Apple, Samsung, Palm & Motorola prospects are up
o RIM, MS & Nokia prospects are down
• Wi-Fi � MiFi � My-Fi … every phone becomes a MiFi
• LBS becomes pervasive and embedded in all apps
• Google Voice
o Will the FCC intervene? Will it change voice in mobile?
• Google Navigation
o Will it end paid turn-by-turn navigation?
• Future of PND
o Replacing in-dash navigation in cars
o Will PNDs be replaced by SmartPhone?
16
2010 Mobile & Wireless Trends
• Hybrid approach to Cloud Computing
o Many services managed in the cloud
o Device capabilities continue (more processing, display resolution, graphics and storage)
• Net Neutrality has limitations in the world of wireless
o Open, interstate highways
o Toll roads with QOS, throughput and low latency
• Moores Law will squeeze netbook market share
o Integrated wireless bundles migrate to notebooks
o Notebook prices keep falling thus squeezing out netbooks
• All wireless handsets for consumer use become SmartPhones
• Within five years, all phones in US will be SmartPhones
• Enterprise mobile becomes more centralized & managed as a service
17
Mobile & Wireless Leads the Global Economic Recovery
• Mobile and wireless experienced slower growth during the recession
o But, the number of subscribers actually grew
o And, the growth in SmartPhones was amazing
• People have become very dependent on the mobile phone
o They would return home to get it if left behind (along with wallet & keys)
o It is their primary contact method for business and personal
o You need it to get a new job
• In 2010, mobile & wireless is a shining star in the economy
o Mobile becomes a leader in the rise from recession
o And, innovation will continue with new eBooks & SmartPhones
18
Next Steps
� Request a proposal for a Growth Partnership Service to support you and your team to accelerate the growth of your company. ([email protected])1-877-GoFrost (1-877-463-7678)
� Register for the next Chairman’s Series on Growth:
How to Be a Visionary: Leveraging the CEO’s 360 Perspective Model, January 12, 2010(http://www.frost.com/growth)
� Register for Frost & Sullivan’s Growth Opportunity Newsletters and keep abreast of innovative growth opportunities(www.frost.com/news)
19
Your Feedback is Important to Us
• Growth Forecasts?
• Competitive Structure?
• Emerging Trends?
• Strategic Recommendations?
• Other?
Please inform us by taking our survey.
What would you like to see from Frost & Sullivan?
20
For Additional Information
For Additional Information
J. Gerry Purdy, Ph.D.
Principal Analyst, Mobile & Wireless Communications
(404) 406-5309
Brent Iadarola
Global Research Director
Mobile & Wireless Communications
(210) 481-0752
Craig Hays
Director of Sales
Information & Communication Technologies
(210) 247-2460