2012 apr saewc_pres

1

Growth & Development Trends of Automotive

Aluminum

Randall SchepsChairman, The Aluminum Association’s Transportation Group

Marketing Director – Automotive

2

Who We Are

AluminumInTransportation.org

3

Aluminum Builds a Better Vehicle

Reduced Emissions

Mass Reduction

Enhanced Performance

Improved Safety

Better Fuel Economy

Infinitely Recyclable


4

“Based on our current understanding, we believe we’re

approaching the practical limits of the application of high-strength

steels,” says Frank Paluch, senior vice president at Honda R&D Americas at the International

Automotive Body Congress.

OEMs Weigh in on WeightPlans to use more aluminum

to cut vehicle weight.BMW, Reuters

Audi relies on aluminum… to achieve benefits of down

weighting as seen in the 2011 A8, such as a 25% increase in body stiffness, while reducing

weight by up to 20%.Audi/ATG, Joint press release


5

Secondary Objective

Estimate “most likely” material mix through 2025

North American

Aluminum Use Survey Conducted by Ducker Worldwide

Primary Objective

Accurate estimate of 2012 light vehicle aluminum content


6

Aluminum Content in 2012

125

14

23

24

49

60

69

70

88

89

112

115

126

130

371

516

588

636

785

790

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

All Other Compnents

Drive Shafts & Yokes

IP Structure

Cradles & Crossmembers

Engine Mounts

Other Steering

Differential Carriers

Bumpers

Transfer Cases

Control Arms & Links

Intake Manifolds

Steering Knuckles

Closures

Brake Parts

Other Engine

Heat Transfer

Cylinder Heads

Cylinder Blocks

Transmissions

Wheels

Millions of Pounds


7

Aluminum Share

Expected to Double

Pe

rc

en

t o

f M

ate

ria

l M

ix

Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011


34% 35% 38%

58% 54% 46%

8% 11% 16%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2008 2015 2025

Aluminum

Steel

All OtherMaterials

8

40 Years of Uninterrupted Growth

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Po

un

ds

pe

r V

eh

icle

2012: 343 lbs

Average increase of 7 lbs per year for 35 years

The trend line continues

to be supported by new aluminum

applications


9

Content Growth 2009-2012

1%

3%

3%

3%

5%

10%

16%

19%

58%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Heat Transfer

Engine

Transmission & Driveline

Wheels & Brakes

Average Increase

Steering

Suspension

Crossmembers

Body, Bumper & Closure

Total Pounds

(over 50% from closures)


10

Growth: Hoods, Trunks, Doors & Bumpers

12

10

6

3 2 3

58

10 11 121

4

8

11

0

5

10

15

20

25

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Po

un

ds

pe

r V

eh

icle

Pounds per Vehicle New Applications(Primarily body, bumper & closure components)


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Aluminum is a

Cost Effective Solution

Cost Dollar/PoundSaved

Primary $2.00

Secondary ($1.82)

Net Cost $0.18

Average Cost of Direct Weight Savings

Increased use of aluminum is necessary and cost

effective in achieving 400 lb weight reduction by 2025


12

Aluminum is a Safe Solution

Downweighting is necessary to meet demands without

sacrificing safety or functionality.

Pound for pound aluminum can absorb

two times the energy in a crash compared to steel.

Aluminum provides benefits that span

many aspects of design, including providing stronger, safer, more durable

vehicles.

According to a study conducted by the Univ. of Aachen, aluminum has a ~40% weight

reduction potential. Steel has ~11%.


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OEMs efforts to meet 35.5 mpg by 2016 coupled with the uncertainty surrounding the fuel economy standards beyond

2016 has caused a flurry of down weighting activity in the last two years.

OEMs don’t want expensive alternative powertrains to be forced on consumers, but they see the commercial and political value of saving weight.

2025 – Average vehicle will get lighter by 400 lbs- Aluminum: sheet & extrusions/closures, body-in-white, bumper & suspension- AHSS

Aluminum will grow to 16% of curb weight- 2012 – 343 lbs / 2025 – 550 lbs- Industry added 200 lbs per vehicle from 1990 to 2012- Increase of 207 lbs in 13 years

The aluminum industry has the capacity to support an aluminum intensive fleet in 2017-2025.

Conclusions


14

Q u e s t i o n s

Thank You

www.AluminumInTransportation.org

2012 apr saewc_pres

Business