2014 tourism outlook - montréal - tourisme laval · 2014 tourism outlook - montréal perspective...
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2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal
Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada
Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference Board of Canada
October 2013
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• Brief Economic Overview (Quebec/Montréal)
• Recent Tourism Performance (Half-Year & Full Year 2013)
• Projected Tourism Performance (2014 and beyond)
• Methodology/Assumptions/Concerns
• Results
• Aggregate
• Highlight on key international markets
Agenda
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• Real GDP growth will slowly improve and is forecast to
reach 2.2 per cent in 2014 (up from 1.4 in 2013 and 1.0
in 2012).
• The recovery in exports seems finally within reach, as
key sectors experienced much stronger growth recently.
• Household consumption to strengthen in 2014 with
modest job growth and no planned increases in sales
taxes or income taxes.
Quebec Outlook
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2013 Real GDP Growth (per cent, basic prices, 2007 $)
5,4%
3,5%
3,2%
1,5%
1,5%
1,4%
1,3%
1,2%
1,1%
0,8%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
NL
SK
AB
MB
BC
QUE
PEI
ON
NS
NB
Canada = 1.7%
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2014 Real GDP Growth (per cent, basic prices, 2007 $)
3,0%
3,0%
2,9%
2,4%
2,2%
2,2%
2,2%
1,9%
1,0%
0,7%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4%
BC
AB
NS
SK
ON
QUE
MB
NB
PEI
NL
Canada = 2.4%
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Montréal Outlook
• Montréal’s GDP growth is forecast to pick up to 2.1 per cent
in 2014, up from 1.3 per cent in 2013 and 1.1 per cent in
2012.
• Employment is expected to post more modest growth of 0.6
per cent in 2014, down from the 2 per cent growth recorded
this year. This will leave the unemployment rate virtually
unchanged from the 8 per cent recorded this year.
• Retail sales are expected to post modest growth of 3.4 per
cent and 3.9 per cent, respectively, over the next two years.
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Tourism Sector Revenues Growth – Quebec % Change in Tourism Revenues (Jan-June 2013 vs. Jan-June 2012)
2,4%
1,7%
1,5%
2,7%
3,4%
5,6%
2,5%
-1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
Air Transportation
Other Transportation
Accommodation
Food & Beverage
Recreation & Entertainment
Travel Services
Tourism Sector - Overall
Tourism Sector Revenues (Canada) = 3.0%
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Tourism Sector Revenues Growth - Montréal % Change in Tourism Revenues (Jan-June 2013 vs. Jan-June 2012)
2,4%
2,2%
2,4%
3,0%
1,5%
5,4%
2,5%
-1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
Air Transportation
Other Transportation
Accommodation
Food & Beverage
Recreation & Entertainment
Travel Services
Tourism Sector - Overall
Tourism Sector Revenues (Canada) = 3.0%
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Tourism Sector Revenues Growth - Québec City % Change in Tourism Revenues (Jan-June 2013 vs. Jan-June 2012)
3,1%
-2,0%
-2,1%
5,0%
3,4%
6,5%
1,7%
-4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%
Air Transportation
Other Transportation
Accommodation
Food & Beverage
Recreation & Entertainment
Travel Services
Tourism Sector - Overall
Tourism Sector Revenues (Canada) = 3.0%
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Overnight Visitor Spending (2013) % Change in Tourism Spending (2013 vs. 2012)
T.P.I. (Quebec, Canada) = 2.5%, 2.5%
5,7%
4,4%
2,8% 2,1%
3,9% 3,7%
5,6%
7,1%
5,7%
4,4% 4,3%
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%
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Overnight Visitor Spending (2013) % Change in Tourism Spending (2013 vs. 2012)
T.P.I. (Quebec City, Montreal) = 2.3%, 2.6%
3,0% 2,9%
4,5%
1,7%
4,9% 5,6%
4,8%
6,4%
3,9% 4,3%
-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%
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Tourism Growth Projections (2013) Overnight province-visits (2013/2012)
3,1%
0,1% 0,5%
-0,1%
0,8% 0,9%
1,7%
3,6%
2,5% 2,1%
1,4%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
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Tourism Growth Projections (2013) Overnight person-visits (2013/2012)
0,5% 0,3%
1,3%
0,2%
2,1% 2,2% 1,6%
3,0%
1,9% 1,4%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
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Tourism Growth – Montréal (2013) Overnight person-visits (2013/2012)
1,3%
1,4%
4,5%
1,7%
0,8%
1,0%
0,9%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%
Overall
Domestic
Business
Pleasure
VFR
US
Overseas
Growth in Room Nights Sold (Tourism Activity) = 1.5%
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Tourism Growth – Québec City (2013) Overnight person-visits (2013/2012)
0,3%
0,2%
-2,3%
0,6%
0,6%
1,4%
-0,6%
-3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2%
Overall
Domestic
Business
Pleasure
VFR
US
Overseas
Growth in Room Nights Sold (Tourism Activity) = - 0.6%
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Approach/Methodology Used to Establish
Forecasts
– Tourism forecast originates from economic drivers
(GDP, disposable income, employment, exchange
rates, prices, etc.)
– Various non-economic factors are also considered
(the role of air capacity, new attractions,
infrastructure or major events, specific travel related
issues/costs and consumer confidence)
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Key Economic Assumptions
– Economic growth is expected to slightly pick up
pace in 2014 (most markets – incl. Quebec)
– Employment growth expected to be slightly stronger
along with disposable income growth (most
markets)
– Canadian dollar (vs. US) to remain fairly stable and
only modest increases in oil prices
– Global economic/financial concerns expected to
ease as recovery gains traction which should boost
consumer confidence
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Other Considerations
– Overall, the appeal of Canadian attractions has not
increased appreciably over the past few years
– There is a lingering perception that Canada’s
tourism product does not offer the same value for
money as other destinations
– Canadians continue to take many more longer
duration vacations (of 6 or more nights) outside of
Canada than in Canada
– Only modest growth in non-stop domestic air
capacity expected for most parts of Canada
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Appeal of Canadian Attractions (per cent of 1,500 Canadian respondents rating each destination as
“highly appealing”)
Iconic attraction April 2013 April 2009 Change
Vancouver 47.5 47.0 0.5
Banff/Jasper National Parks 47.1 51.2 -4.1
Quebec City 40.2 41.2 -1.0
Niagara Falls 38.5 39.1 -0.6
Montreal 36.0 37.5 -1.5
Arctic Cruise 34.8 38.0 -3.2
Whistler/Blackcomb Mountain 33.7 31.2 2.5
Halifax 32.0 32.2 -0.2
Fundy National Park/Hopewell Rocks 30.7 31.6 -0.9
Ottawa/Rideau Canal/Parliament Hill 27.0 31.0 -4.0
Toronto/CN Tower 26.7 22.3 4.4
Montreal International Jazz Festival 24.8 25.8 -1.0
Calgary Stampede 24.2 22.1 2.1
Gros Morne National Park 23.4 24.0 -0.6
Winnipeg 16.3 12.3 4.0
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Difference in the Appeal by Actual Visitors (percentage-point difference in the share of actual visitors rating it as
“highly appealing,” April 2013 survey versus April 2009 survey)
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Perceptions of Canada as a Tourism Destination (per cent of Canadian respondents)
86%
84%
83%
81%
81%
79%
78%
78%
77%
76%
73%
71%
68%
66%
64%
64%
64%
63%
56%
52%
11%
13%
15%
15%
16%
18%
20%
19%
19%
21%
23%
25%
26%
27%
29%
29%
29%
30%
32%
36%
2%
3%
2%
3%
3%
2%
2%
3%
4%
4%
4%
4%
7%
7%
7%
7%
8%
7%
11%
13%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Safe destination for tourists
Range of natural attractions
Overall cleanliness
Range of things to see and do
Friendliness of locals
Good quality of accomodation
Good quality of food and beverage in restaurants
Good quality tourism experiences
Acceptance of other cultures
Range of sporting or recreational activity experiences
Favourable summer weather
Range of cultural tourism experiences
Good value of food and beverage in restaurants
Good quality of transportation services
Range of night life and entertainment experiences
Good value of accomodation
Good quality of the shopping experience
Overall good value for money
Good value of transportation
Good value for shopping
Very High or High Moderate Very Low or Low
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Perceptions of Canada as a Tourism Destination (difference in rating provided by outbound vs. domestic travellers)
-10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4%
Range of night life and entertainment…
Acceptance of other cultures
Range of sporting or recreational activity…
Good quality of transportation services
Overall Cleanliness
Safe destination for tourists
Good quality of the shopping experience
Range of natural attractions
Good quality of accomodation
Range of things to see and do
Range of cultural tourism experiences
Good value of transportation
Good quality of food and beverage in restaurants
Good quality tourism experiences
Favourable summer weather
Friendliness of locals
Good value of accomodation
Good value for shopping
Good value of food and beverage in restaurants
Overall good value for money
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Vacation Trips of Six or More Nights Within and Outside Canada in the Past Three Years (Canadian respondents, by region)
24
24 Source: BACK Aviation Solutions
Direct Air Capacity – Domestic (Non-stop seat capacity to Quebec and Montréal, 2003-2013)
3 000 000
4 000 000
5 000 000
6 000 000
7 000 000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Province of Quebec Montréal
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Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
101,7 94,7 98,5
94,7
102,8 102,5
74,3 74,1
83,8 77,9 78,4 83,6
88,9 90,7 90,7 90,7
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Consumer Confidence – Canada
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Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
111,3 102,6
98,6 91,1
96,4 103,9
79,0 72,9
88,5 82,1 78,4
83,4 89,8 92,1 92,1 92,1
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Consumer Confidence – Quebec
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Overnight Visitor Spending (2014) % Change in Tourism Spending (2014 vs. 2013)
T.P.I. (Quebec, Canada) = 2.3%, 2.3%
3,5%
6,6%
4,9%
4,2% 4,4% 4,7%
5,6%
4,7%
5,7% 5,1% 4,9%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
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Overnight Visitor Spending (2014) % Change in Tourism Spending (2014 vs. 2013)
T.P.I. (Quebec City, Montreal) = 2.3%, 2.3%
5,5%
4,5% 4,5% 4,7% 5,1%
5,9%
6,8%
5,7% 5,4% 4,9%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
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Tourism Growth Projections (2014) Overnight province-visits (2014/2013)
0,7%
3,6%
2,1%
1,6% 1,8%
2,1%
3,0%
2,2%
3,1% 2,6%
2,2%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
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Tourism Growth Projections (2014) Overnight person-visits (2014/2013)
2,7% 1,9% 2,1% 2,1% 2,5%
3,3% 4,0%
3,1% 2,8% 2,2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
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Tourism Growth – Montréal (2014) Overnight person-visits (2014/2013)
2,1%
2,1%
2,7%
2,1%
0,8%
2,0%
1,9%
0% 1% 2% 3%
Overall
Domestic
Business
Pleasure
VFR
US
Overseas
Growth in Room Nights Sold (Tourism Activity) = 2.0%
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Tourism Growth – Québec City (2014) Overnight person-visits (2014/2013)
1,9%
2,0%
2,1%
2,0%
0,6%
2,6%
0,9%
0% 1% 2% 3%
Overall
Domestic
Business
Pleasure
VFR
US
Overseas
Growth in Room Nights Sold (Tourism Activity) = 1.9%
33
33 Sources: Statistics Canada (2011 CITIES), Statistics Canada (2012 ITS), The Conference Board of Canada
Tourism Projections – Montréal (2013-2017) Overnight person-visits
34
34 Sources: Statistics Canada (2011 CITIES), Statistics Canada (2012 ITS), The Conference Board of Canada
Tourism Projections – Québec City (2013-2017) Overnight person-visits
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- Longer-term trend has not been in our favour
- Compared with early 2000’s, Americans face relatively high Canadian
dollar, high gas prices and passport requirements for air/land/sea
- Including transportation costs, visiting Canadian cities are not as price
competitive as US cities (however, gap is narrowing slowly)
- American consumer confidence levels still subdued
- Direct air capacity from key U.S. source markets not expected to
expand significantly
U.S. Travel Market Current issues facing travellers to Canada in 2014
36
36 Source: Statistics Canada .
Overnight U.S. Residents by Auto (Quebec Entries)
Down 35% since 2002
0
200 000
400 000
600 000
800 000
1 000 000
1 200 000
1 400 000
1 600 0002
000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
20
10
2011
2012
37
37 Source: Statistics Canada .
Overnight U.S. Residents by Air (Quebec Entries)
Still down from 2000 (at a national level, less capacity)
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
700 000
800 000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
38
38 Source: Statistics Canada .
Overnight U.S. Residents by Other Modes (Quebec Entries)
More than 43% down from 2000
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
39
39 Source: BACK Aviation Solutions
Direct Air Capacity – US (Non-stop seat capacity to Quebec and Montréal, 2003-2013)
2 000 000
2 100 000
2 200 000
2 300 000
2 400 000
2 500 000
2 600 000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Province of Quebec Montréal
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40
Consumer Confidence – US (1985=100)
96,6
79,8
96,1 100,3
105,9 103,3
58,0
45,2
54,5 58,1
67,1 75,4
84,6 88,0 89,6 89,6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
41
41 Sources: Statistics Canada (2012), The Conference Board of Canada
Overnight US travel to Quebec (000’s province-visits)
1 600
1 700
1 800
1 900
2 000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f
0.8% -0.8%
2.0%
2.0%
1.7%
2.5%
0.2% 4.5%
-6.3%
Canada 1.2% growth 2013 (estimate)
42
42 Sources: Statistics Canada , The Conference Board of Canada
Overnight US travel to Quebec (% Change in visits over previous year)
2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f
US by Car -1.0% 0.9% 1.2% 0.9% 1.9%
US by Plane 5.1% 3.5% 3.4% 3.2% 3.7%
US by Other -5.0% 3.3% 1.5% 1.3% 2.0%
Total to Quebec 0.8% 2.0% 2.0% 1.7% 2.5%
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Overall volumes still recovering from 2009
Many traditional source markets continue to face economic challenges
Emerging markets now facing stronger economic headwinds
Strike by Canadian foreign service officers - lingering effects?
Political unrest – Syria, North Africa
Overseas Travel Market Current issues facing travellers to Canada in 2014
44
44 Source: BACK Aviation Solutions
Direct Air Capacity – Overseas (Non-stop seat capacity to Quebec and Montréal, 2003-2013)
1 000 000
1 500 000
2 000 000
2 500 000
3 000 000
3 500 000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Province of Quebec Montréal
45
45 Sources: Statistics Canada , The Conference Board of Canada
Overnight Overseas travel to Quebec (000’s province-visits)
800
850
900
950
1 000
1 050
1 100
1 150
1 200
1 250
1 300
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f
-4.1%
4.6%
0.3%
1.6% 2.5%
3.0%
9.5%
-14.8%
5.5%
Canada 1.5% growth 2013 (estimate)
46
46 Sources: Statistics Canada , The Conference Board of Canada
Select European Markets to Quebec (% Change in visits over previous year)
2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f
France -2.2% -0.6% 1.2% 2.2% 7.0%
Germany -3.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 3.0%
Italy 0.0% 1.6% 1.5% 2.2% 4.0%
Spain -2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.8%
Switzerland 1.2% 2.4% 2.8% 2.9% 5.0%
UK -2.9% -1.6% -0.2% 0.3% 2.5%
47
47 Sources: Statistics Canada , The Conference Board of Canada
Select Other Overseas Markets to Quebec (% change in visits over previous year)
2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f
Australia 1.5% 3.6% 3.7% 3.8% 6.0%
China 15.0% 15.5% 15.3% 15.6% 17.0%
India -2.0% 3.5% 5.5% 5.8% 6.4%
Japan 3.0% -0.9% -1.3% -0.7% 0.0%
Mexico 3.5% 4.1% 4.4% 3.7% 5.0%
South Korea 4.2% 4.1% 3.7% 2.8% 1.7%
Taiwan 8.0% 1.2% 1.3% 0.7% 0.6%
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2014
Overall tourism activity to strengthen compared to 2012 and 2013
Domestic pleasure travel still dominated by shorter getaways, which will
get a boost from consumer confidence and disposable income gains
Longer duration domestic pleasure travel remains under pressure from
outbound intentions and value for money considerations
Weakness from European markets to ease slightly but expect stronger
headwinds from emerging markets
2015 -2017
Growth expected to strengthen (volumes/$), aided by improving
economic factors, confidence and major events
Summary
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