2016 ncfef post primary briefing

2014 Election Updates & Insights

2016 Primary BriefingMarch 16, 2016

www.ncfef.org

@ncfef

NCFEF


NCFEF is a non-partisan, nonprofit organization that conducts impartial, objective research and

analysis on candidates, campaigns, voter attitudes and demographic changes that impact

North Carolina’s political landscape.Joe StewartExecutive [email protected]

(919) 614-0520www.ncfef.org

@ncfef

NCFEF


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What is the 2016 election ‘about’ … ?

fear … anxiety … anger

Certain Uncertaint

y

Factors in North Carolina’s political landscape

What were we expecting? Lots of attention from Presidential candidates

Presidential excitement mattered, but OH & FL ‘hail Mary’ for Kasich & Rubio overshadowed

Up-ballot voter ’anger’ might impact down-ballot

Not so much

Significance of GOP infighting

To be determined @NCFEF

@NCFEF2016 Early Voting

2016 Election – Outcome OverviewVotes Cast 2,300,955

TO (‘12=34.66%) 35.34%Presidential

GOPTRUMP CRUZ KASICH RUBIO

40.24% 36.77% 12.68% 7.71%

Presidential DEM

CLINTON SANDERS54.59% 40.76%

Presidential LIB

JOHNSON NO PREF38.1% 36.5%

Connect NC 65.56% YES 34.44% NO

American Samoa 3/22/16 9Arizona 3/22/16 58

Utah 3/22/16 40North Dakota 4/1/16 28

Wisconsin 4/5/16 42New York 4/19/16 95

Connecticut 4/26/16 28Delaware 4/26/16 16Maryland 4/26/16 38

Pennsylvania 4/26/16 71Rhode Island 4/26/16 19

GOP DELEGATES Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Carson

1,237to Win

2,472 Total 621 396 168 138 8

Indiana 5/3/16 57Nebraska 5/10/16 36

West Virginia 5/10/16 34Oregon 5/17/16 28

Washington 5/24/16 44California 6/7/16 172Montana 6/7/16 27

New Jersey 6/7/16 51New Mexico 6/7/16 24South Dakota 6/7/16 29

Surfing Theory of Politics

@NCFEF

2016 Primary: US Senate

Paul Wright

Larry Holmquis

t

Richard Burr (I)

GregBrannon

@NCFEF

61.4% 8.5% 4.9% 25.2%

2016 Primary: US Senate

@NCFEF

ChrisRey

Deborah Ross

Kevin Griffin

Ernest T. Reeves

9.4% 16.5% 62.4% 11.7%

Sean Haugh

NC Congressional Districts

Filing = March 16 – 25

Primary = June 7

CVB for NC SENATE 34 REP – 16 DEMSTRONG DEM (16) COMPETITIVE (4) LEAN REP (6) STRONG REP (24)

28 RobinsonGuilford

21 ClarkHoke

19 MeredithCumberland

8 RabonBrunswick

50 DavisMacon

24 GunnAlamance

39

Rucho (NR)Mecklenburg

40 Waddell*Mecklenburg

5 DavisGreene

1 CookBeaufort

9 Lee*New Hanover

46 DanielBurke

47 HiseMitchell

31

KrawiecForsyth

38 FordMecklenburg

13 Smith*Robeson

25 McInnis*Richmond

15 Alexander*Wake

27 WadeGuilford

2 SandersonPamlico

44

CurtisLincoln

14 BlueWake

23 FousheeOrange

18 BarefootWake

10 B. JacksonSampson

11Newton

(NR)Wilson

45 Soucek (NR)Watauga

35

TuckerUnion

20 McKissickDurham

22 WoodardDurham

12 RabinHarnett

6 BrownOnslow

48 Apodaca (NR)Henderson

42

Wells*Catawba

4 BryantNash

37 J. JacksonMecklenburg

17 BarringerWake

41 TarteMecklenburg

36 Hartsell (NR)Cabarrus

33

Bingham (NR)Davidson

3Smith-

Ingram*Edgecombe

16 Stein (NR)Wake

26 BergerRockingham

43 HarringtonGaston

30

RandlemanWilkes

32 Lowe*Forsyth

49Van

Duyn*Buncombe

*freshmanNR = not running in 2016

7 PateWayne

34 BrockDavie

29

TillmanRandolph

9 SENATE REPUBLICAN WINNERSDIST CVB CANDIDATE INC LBR

SD 06 SR Harry Brown 95.0SD 07 SR Louis M. Pate Jr. 95.0SD 08 LR Bill Rabon 85.9SD 10 LR Brent Jackson 95.0SD 26 SR Phil Berger 95.0SD 29 SR Jerry W. Tillman 90.0SD 34 SR Andrew C Brock 85.8SD 42 SR Andy Wells 90.0SD 43 SR Kathy Harrington 90.0

4 SENATE DEMOCRAT WINNERSDIST CVB CANDIDATE INC LBR

SD 03 SD Erica Smith-Ingram 47.8SD 05 SD Don Davis 48.3SD 14 SD Dan Blue 55.0SD 32 SD Paul Lowe Jr. 45.0

SENATE INCUMBENTS = GENERAL ONLY

DIST CVB POP +/- INC LBR INCUMBENT CHALLENGER

SD 01 CO 1,165 80.0 Bill Cook Brownie Futrell

SD 02 SR 3,151 90.0 Norman Sanderson Dorothea White

SD 09 LR 13,579 90.0 Michael Lee Andrew Barnhill

SD 12 LR 15,450 90.0 Ronald Rabin Susan Byerly

SD 15 LR 16,411 65.0 John Alexander Laurel Deegan-FrickeBrad Hessell

SD 17 LR 27,427 80.0 Tamara Barringer Susan EvansSusan Hogarth

SD 18 CO 16,934 90.0 Chad Barefoot Gil Johnson

SD 19 CO 5,560 78.9 Wesley Meredith Toni Morris



SD 24 SR 4,950 95.0 Rick Gunn John Thorpe

SD 25 CO -2,603 90.0 Tom McInnis Dannie Montgomery

SD 27 SR 9,258 90.0 Trudy Wade Michael Garrett

SD 30 SR -2,189 90.0 Shirley Randleman Michael Holleman

SD 41 SR 28,598 90.0 Jeff Tarte Jonathan HudsonChris Cole

SD 46 SR -2,428 80.5 Warren Daniel Anne Fischer

SD 47 SR -1,473 85.8 Ralph Hise Mary Jane Boyd

SD 50 SR 865 87.5 Jim Davis Jane Hipps



SD 13 SD -553 54.2 Jane W. Smith Danny Earl (JR) Britt

SD 20 SD 9,597 32.5 Floyd B. McKissick, Jr. Barbara Howe

SD 22 SD 14,891 52.3 Mike Woodard Greg Doucette

SD 23 SD 11,812 37.2 Valerie P. Foushee Mary Lopez Carter

SD 28 SD 7,432 28.6 Gladys A. Robinson Devin R. King

SD 37 SD 15,790 38.2 Jeff Jackson Bob Diamond

SD 49 SD 8,910 45.0 Terry Van Duyn William Meredith

SENATE INCUMBENTS = PRIMARY

DIST CVB POP +/- INC LBR INCUMBENT RESULT CHALLENGER

SD 31 SR 5,819 85.8

Joyce Krawiec (I)

Dempsey Brewer

Peter Antinozzi

62.3%

27.3%

10.4%

SD 35 SR 16,584 90.8Tommy Tucker (I)

Matt Daly

61.6%

38.4%

SD 44 SR 8,165 90.0David L. Curtis (I)

Chris Carney

51.1%Nic Haag

49.9%

SENATE INCUMBENTS = PRIMARY


SD 04 SD -3,495 45.0Angela R. Bryant (I) James Mills

81.2%Richard Scott

18.8%

SD 21 SD 5,996 77.5

Ben Clark (I)

Eronomy Smith

Naveed Aziz

49.9%

Dan Travieso5.9%

44.2%

SD 38 SD 22,663 70.0Joel Ford (I)

Roderick Davis

52.1%Richard Rivette

47.9%

SD 40 SD 12,219 35.8Joyce Waddell (I)

Nasif Majeed

64.6% Marguerite Cooke35.4%

OPEN SEAT RACES – NC SENATEDIST CVB POP +/- INC LBR CANDIDATES RESULTS

SD 11NEWTON (R)

SR

4,638

79.4

Benton Sawrey 48.4%Rick Horner 51.6%Albert Pacer 100%

SD 16STEIN (D) SD 17,905

40.0

Jay Chaudhuri 63.1%Ellis Hankins 36.9%Eric Weaver 100%

SD 33BINGHAM (R) SR

791

85.8

Cathy Dunn 40.1%Joe D. Kennedy 27.7%Eddie Gallimore 32.2%

Jim Beall Graham 100%

SD 36HARTSELL (R) SR 14,784 85.5

Andrew W. Platek 34.9%Robert Brown 65.1%

Amy Blake 21.4%Parish Moffitt 11.6%

Paul R. Newton 37.0%Scott C. Aumuller 30.0%

OPEN SEAT RACES – NC SENATE

DIST CVB POP +/- INC LBR CANDIDATES RESULTS

SD 39RUCHO (R)

SR

13,641 83.0

Lloyd Scher 100%

Dan Bishop 100%

SD 45SOUCEK (R) SR -519 85.0

Deanna Ballard 52.9%

Ken Boham 47.1%

Art Sherwood 100%

SD 48APODACA

(R)SR 7,675

95.0

Chuck Edwards 56.2%

Dennis Justice 9.9%

Lisa Carpenter Baldwin 33.9%

Norman Bossert 100%

STRONG DEM (37) LEAN REP (14) STRONG REP (59)

29 L. HallDurham

114

FisherBuncombe 66 Goodman

Richmond118

PresnellYancey

55

BrodyUnion 86 Blackwell

Burke110

HastingsGaston 96 Adams*

Catawba

106

CunninghamMecklenburg 42 Lucas

Cumberland 39 JacksonWake

49

Pendleton*Wake

14

ClevelandOnslow 82 Pittman

Cabarrus 77 WarrenRowan 69 Arp

Union

102

CarneyMecklenburg 5 Hunter

Hertford 50 MeyerOrange 9 Murphy**

Pitt36

DollarWake 15 Shepard

Onslow 98 Bradford*Mecklenburg 13 McElraft

Carteret

31 MichauxDurham 32 Baskerville (NR)

Vance LEAN DEM (2) 45

SzokaCumberland

40

AvilaWake

109

BumgardnerGaston 91 Hall**

Stokes 81 Brown (NR)Davidson

33 GillWake 72 Hanes

Forsyth 54 ReivesLee

63

RossAlamance

37

Stam (NR)Wake 26 Daughtry (NR)

Johnston 74 ConradForsyth 87 Robinson

Caldwell

99 MooreMecklenburg

100

Cotham (NR)Mecklenburg 44 Richardson**

Cumberland53

LewisHarnett

62

BlustGuilford 16 Millis

Pender104

Bishop (NR)Mecklenburg 76 Ford

Rowan

38 Lewis HolleyWake 23 Willingham*

Edgecombe COMP (8) 93

JordanAshe

111

MooreCleveland 83 Johnson

Cabarrus 10 J. BellWayne 95 Fraley

Iredell

60 Brockman*Guilford 47 Graham

Robeson 119 QueenHaywood 1 Steinburg

Chowan75

LambethForsyth 19 Davis

New Hanover 84 R. TurnerIredell 89 Setzer

Catawba

58 Johnson*Guilford 30 Luebke

Durham 2 Yarborough*Person

65

JonesRockingham

88

BryanMecklenburg 4 Dixon

Duplin 17 IlerBrunswick 68 Horn

Union

107

AlexanderMecklenburg 43 Floyd

Cumberland 22 BrissonBladen 3 Speciale

Craven25

CollinsNash 59 Hardister

Guilford108

TorbettGaston 94 Elmore

Wilkes

56 InskoOrange 21 L. Bell

Sampson 92 JeterMecklenburg

51

Salmon*Harnett

103

BrawleyMecklenburg 61 Faircloth

Guilford105

Schaffer (NR)Mecklenburg 79 Howard

Davie

24Farmer-

ButterfieldWilson

7 RichardsonFranklin 115 Ager*

Buncombe64

RiddellAlamance

Catlin (NR)New Hanover 52 Boles

Moore 97 SaineLincoln

48 PierceScotland 18 Hamilton

New Hanover 6 Tine (NR)Dare

116

B. Turner*Buncombe

HagerRutherford

117

McGradyHenderson 85 Dobson

McDowell

71 TerryForsyth 34 G. Martin

Wake 8 S. MartinWilson

35

MaloneWake

Whitmire (NR)Transylvania

120

West (NR)Cherokee 73 Zachary*

Yadkin

57 HarrisonGuilford 12 Graham

Lenoir 41 Adcock*Wake 28 Langdon (NR)

Johnston 80 WatfordDavidson

27 WrayNorthampton 11 D. Hall

Wake *freshman **appointedNR = not running in 2016

90 StevensSurry 70 Hurley

Randolph

101

EarleMecklenburg 46 Waddell (NR)

Columbus 67 BurrStanly 78 McNeill

Randolph

CVB for NC HOUSE 74 REP – 45 DEM – 1 UNA

23 HOUSE REPUBLICAN WINNERSDISTRICT CVB INCUMBENT 2015 LBRHD 004 SR Jimmy Dixon 90.0HD 014 SR George G. Cleveland 75.0HD 019 SR Ted Davis, Jr. 90.0HD 061 SR John Faircloth 90.0HD 062 SR John M. Blust 79.2HD 063 LR Stephen Ross 92.5HD 064 LR Dennis Riddell 90.0HD 068 SR Craig Horn 85.5HD 075 SR Donny C Lambeth 90.0HD 076 SR Carl Ford 76.7HD 078 SR Allen McNeill 85.8HD 079 SR Julia Craven Howard 80.9HD 080 SR Sam Watford 90.0HD 085 SR Josh Dobson 95.0HD 089 SR Mitchell Setzer 77.5HD 096 SR Jay Adams 85.8HD 097 SR Jason R. Saine 90.5HD 098 SR John R. Bradford III 90.0HD 108 SR John A. Torbett 95.0HD 110 SR Kelly Hastings 90.0HD 111 SR Tim Moore 95.0HD 112 SR Mike Hager 95.0HD 117 SR Chuck McGrady 80.8

19 HOUSE DEMOCRAT WINNERS

DISTRICT CVB CANDIDATE 2015 LBRHD 005 SD Howard J. Hunter III 43.2HD 012 SD George Graham 67.5HD 023 SD Shelly Willingham 31.1HD 029 SD Larry D. Hall 24.1HD 031 SD Mickey Michaux, Jr. 35.8HD 039 SD Darren Jackson 59.2HD 042 SD Marvin W. Lucas 73.0HD 043 SD Elmer Floyd 66.7HD 048 SD Garland E. Pierce 49.2HD 056 SD Verla Insko 19.1HD 057 SD Pricey Harrison 12.0HD 060 SD Cecil Brockman 67.5HD 066 SD Ken Goodman 92.5HD 071 SD Evelyn Terry 38.2HD 072 SD Ed Hanes Jr. 80.9HD 099 SD Rodney W. Moore 80.0HD 102 SD Becky Carney 63.3HD 106 SD Carla Cunningham 47.3HD 114 SD Susan C. Fisher 14.5

HOUSE INCUMBENTS = GENERAL ONLY

DIST CVB POP +/- INC LBR INCUMBENT CHALLENGERHD 002 COMP -1,605 85 Larry Yarborough Joe ParishHD 008 COMP 1,861 90 Susan Martin Charlie Patt FarrisHD 041 COMP 15,176 54.2 Gale Adcock Chris ShoffnerHD 115 COMP 3,778 50 John Ager Frank MoretzHD 119 COMP 1,119 48.3 Joe Sam Queen Mike ClampittHD 044 LD 1,998 50 Billy Richardson Jim ArpHD 054 LD 5,531 50 Robert T. Reives II Wesley SeawellHD 001 LR 768 92.5 Bob Steinburg Sam DavisHD 003 LR 368 71.7 Michael Speciale Marva Fisher BaldwinHD 035 LR 14,184 69.2 Chris Malone Terrence EverittHD 045 LR 2,902 90 John Szoka Roberta Waddle

HD 049 LR 2,346 66.8 Gary Pendleton Cynthia BallDavid Ulmer

HD 065 LR -2,516 85.8 Bert Jones H. Keith Duncan

HD 118 LR 508 85.8 Michele D. Presnell Rhonda C. Schandevel

HD 051 LR 5,706 76.7 Brad Salmon John Sauls

HD 116 LR 5,296 63.3 Brian Turner Kay Olsen

HOUSE INCUMBENTS = GENERAL ONLYDIST CVB POP +/- INC LBR INCUMBENT CHALLENGER

HD 010 SR 8,137 92.5 John R. Bell Evelyn PaulHD 013 SR 2,265 95.0 Pat McElraft Rodney AlexanderHD 015 SR 811 90.0 Phillip Shepard Dan WhittenHD 016 SR 7,204 81.7 Chris W. Millis Steve UngerHD 025 SR 830 85.5 Jeff Collins Jim LeeHD 040 SR 13,125 73.9 Marilyn Avila Joe JohnHD 055 SR 683 85.8 Mark Brody Kim HargettHD 059 SR 5,676 81.7 Jon Hardister Scott JonesHD 069 SR 6,387 90.8 Dean Arp Gordon DanielsHD 070 SR 605 85.8 Pat B. Hurley Lee BohnsackHD 074 SR 1,963 85.8 Debra Conrad Marilyn BakerHD 086 SR -161 85.5 Hugh Blackwell Tim BarnsbackHD 088 SR 1,353 92.5 Rob Bryan Mary BelkHD 090 SR -737 90.0 Sarah Stevens Vera Smith ReynoldsHD 094 SR -729 85.0 Jeffrey Elmore Michael LentzHD 103 SR 6,714 90.5 Bill Brawley Rochelle RivasHD 109 SR 1,476 77.5 Dana Bumgardner Susan Maxon

HOUSE INCUMBENTS = GENERAL ONLY


HD 007 SD -72 44.2 Bobbie J. Richardson William D. Hancock II

HD 011 SD 5,646 54.2 Duane Hall Brian Lewis

HD 018 SD 4,737 68.9 Susi Hamilton Gerald Benton

HD 030 SD 11,548 11.3 Paul Luebke Elissa Fuchs

HD 034 SD 2,625 29.1 Grier Martin Bill Morris

HD 038 SD 9,300 35.8 Yvonne Lewis Holley Olen Watson III

HD 050 SD 6,127 51.8 Graig R. Meyer Rod Chaney

HOUSE INCUMBENTS = PRIMARY ONLY

DIST CVB POP +/- INC LBR INCUMBENT RESULT

HD 021 SD -8 62.5 Larry M. Bell (I) Scotty Smith

85.5%14.5%

HD 022 CO 176 90.0 William Brisson (I) Ben Snyder

53.5%46.5%

HD 024 SD 1,765 42.7 Jean Farmer-Butterfield (I) Kandie Smith

61.9%38.1%

HD 027 SD -3,357 80.0 Michael H. Wray (I) Franklin Williams Jr.

52.6%47.4%

HD 033 SD 8,249 45.0Rosa U Gill (I) Bernard Allen IIIShirley Hicks

65.5%12.6%21.9%

HD 047 SD 509 55.8 Charles Graham (I) Randall Jones

58.0%42.0%

HOUSE INCUMBENTS = PRIMARY


HD 058 SD 1,995 52.3Ralph C. Johnson (I)

Amos Quick

28.6%

71.4%

HD 101 SD 10,098 45.0Beverly Miller Earle (I)

Steven Jones

78.1% Justin Dunn20.9%

HD 107 SD 8,900 58.3Kelly Alexander (I)

Robert Blok

90.5%

9.5%

HOUSE INCUMBENTS = PRIMARY DIST CVB POP +/- INC LBR INCUMBENT RESULT CHALLENGER

HD 017 SR 7,812 90.0 Frank Iler (I) Marion Davis

67.8%Charles Warren

32.2%

HD 036 SR 6,399 85.8 Nelson Dollar (I) Mark Villee

55.8% Jennifer FerrellBrian Irving44.2%

HD 052 SR 4,640 90.0 Jamie Boles (I) John Zumwalt

53.7%46.3%

HD 053 LR 7,740 90.5 David R. Lewis (I) Chuck Levorse

78.6%Jon Blum

21.4%

HD 067 SR -472 81.7 Justin P. Burr (I) Lane Burris

50.9%Carson R. Snyder

49.1%

HD 073 SR -437 95.0 Lee Zachary (I) Dwight Shook

51.5%48.5%

HD 077 SR 140 81.7 Harry Warren (I) Andrew Poston

71.4%28.6%

HOUSE INCUMBENTS = PRIMARY


HD 082 SR 9,031 69.2 Larry G. Pittman (I) Michael Fischer

52.9% Earle Schecter47.1%

HD 083 SR 4,343 90.0 Linda P. Johnson (I) Nathan Stone

61.6% Jeremy Hachen38.4%

HD 084 SR 1,890 90.0 Rena W. Turner (I) Kirk Sherrill

63.8% John Wayne Kahl36.2%

HD 087 SR -1,545 87.5 George S. Robinson (I)Destin Hall

40.3%59.7%

HD 092 CO 15,160 86.7 Charles Jeter (I) Tom Davis

50.2%Chaz Beasley

49.8%

HD 093 LR 1,326 81.7 Jonathan C. Jordan (I) Lew Hendricks

73.9%Sue Counts

26.1%

HD 095 SR 5,348 95.0 John A. Fraley (I) David W. Thompson

68.5%31.5%

OPEN SEAT RACES – NC HOUSEDISTRICT CVB POP +/- INC LBR CANDIDATES RESULT

HD 006TINE (U) CO 238 90.0

Judy Justice 28.2%Warren Judge 71.8%Ashley Woolard 36.7%Beverly Boswell 39.3%

HD 020CATLIN (R) SR 6,747 78.9 Holly Grange 62.0%

Tammy Covil 38.0%

HD 026DAUGHTRY (R) SR 8,091 95.0

Dennis Nielsen 40.4%Donna McDowell White 59.6%Rich Nixon 100%

HD 028LANGDON (R) SR 4,368 85.8

Jimmie M. Massengill 49.6%Patricia Oliver 50.4%Gregory A. Dail 8.1%Larry C. Strickland 50.1%Tony Braswell 41.8%

HD 032B’VILLE (D) SD -1,692 40.8

Gary Lamont Miles Sr 32.7%Terry Garrison 67.3%

OPEN SEAT RACES – NC HOUSEDISTRICT CVB POP +/- INC LBR CANDIDATES RESULT

HD 37STAM (R) SR 12,046 85.8

Linda Hunt-Williams 100%Jonathan Graham 100%Robert Rose 100%

HD 46WADDELL (D) SD -1,093 85.0

Brenden Jones 100%Tim Benton 100%Thomas (Tom) Howell Jr 100%

HD 81R. BROWN (R) SR 663 80.0

Larry W. Potts 52.3%Sharon Phillips Pearce 20.0%Tyler Lohr Forrest 27.7%

HD 100COTHAM (D) SD 1,692 59.3

Billy Maddalon 46.7%John Autry 53.3%

HD 104BISHOP (R) SR 1,417 85.0

Andy Dulin 100%Peter Noris 100%

HD 105SCHAFFER (R) SR 12,855 85.0

Scott Stone 52.2%Tim Morgan 47.8%Connie Green-Johnson 100%

OPEN SEAT RACES – NC HOUSE

DISTRICT CVB POP +/- INC LBR CANDIDATES RESULTS

HD 113WHITMIRE (R) SR 757 90.0

Cody Henson 64.7%

Coty James Ferguson 35.3%

Maureen Mahan Copelof 100%

HD 120WEST (R) SR -573 95.0

Elliott J. Southworth 26.1%

Kevin Corbin 73.9%

*HD 9B. BROWN (R) LR 3,747 90.0

Brian Farkas 61.8%Walter E. Gaskins 38.2%Greg Murphy* 100%

*HD 91H’WAY (R) SR 1,050 85.8

Ira (Bubba) Tilley 25.6%

Kyle Hall* 43.8%

Robert Knight 30.6%

Eugene Russell 100%

2016 Election – Outcome OverviewSR LR COMP LD SD

NC House74 – 45 – 1 59 14

12R 2D8

3R 4D 1U 2 37Winners 28R 2R 1D 29DINC GEN 23R 9R 2D 6

3R 3D 2D 8D

NC Senate34 – 16 24 6 4R 0 16Winners 9R 2R 4DINC GEN 9R 4R 4R 11D

2016 Election: Likely Partisan Outcome

Current Partisan Count

Strong REP

Lean REP COMP Lean

DEMStrong DEM

NC House74 – 45 – 1 59 14 8

3R 4D 1U 2 37NC HouseJan 2017 71

PROB2

LIKELY4

TOSS UP4

LIKELY39PROB

NC Senate34 – 16 24 6 4

4 GOP 0 16NC SenateJan 2017 26

PROB7

LIKELY1

TOSS UP0

LIKELY16PROB

@NCFEF

Statewide Executive Branch

GOV

Roy Cooper – 68.8%Ken Spaulding –

32.2%

Pat McCrory – 81.8%Robert Brawley –

10.6%Charles K. Moss – 7.7%

Lon Cecil

LT GOV

Linda Coleman – 51.1%

Holly Jones – 28.8%Robert E. Wilson –

10.5%Ronald Newton – 9.6%

Dan ForestJJ

Summerell

AG OPEN

Josh Stein –53.5%Marcus Williams –

46.5%Buck Newton – 54.9%

Jim O’Neill – 45.1%

INS Wayne Goodwin

Mike Causey – 41.2%Joe McLaughlin – 32.9%

Ron Pierce – 25.9%

Statewide Executive BranchAUD Beth Wood Chuck Stuber

SOS Elaine Marshall Michael LaPaglia – 61.6%

A.J. Daoud – 38.4%

LAB

Charles Meeker – 56.6%

Mazie Ferguson – 43.4%Cherie Berry

AGR Walter Smith Steve Troxler – 68.8%

Andy Steven – 31.2%

SPIJune Atkinson – 79.8%Henry Pankey – 20.2%

Mark Johnson – 53.4%Rosemary Stein – 32.8%J. Wesley Sills – 13.8%

ST OPEN

Dan Blue III – 58.5%Ron Ellmer – 41.5% Dale Folwell

Statewide Executive BranchGOV Roy Cooper (68.8%) Pat McCrory

(81.8%) Lon CecilLT GOV Linda Coleman (51.1%) Dan Forest JJ Summerell

AG OPEN Josh Stein (53.5%) Buck Newton (54.9%)INS Wayne Goodwin Mike Causey (41.2%)

AUD Beth Wood Chuck Stuber

SOS Elaine Marshall Michael LaPaglia (61.6%)

LAB Charles Meeker (56.6%) Cherie Berry

AGR Walter Smith Steve Troxler (68.8%)

SPI June Atkinson (79.8%) Mark Johnson (53.4%)ST OPEN Dan Blue III (58.5%) Dale Folwell

NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Governor

Cooper

Victory

Strong US Senate

Candidate

DEM Prez Candidate Fights for

NCSuburbs = Domestic

Issues

McCrory

Victory

Voters Positive on

NC Economy

Parity in Outside $

No GOP Fracture over Prez

@NCFEF

2012: 50.6% 48.8% 1.0%

2016 Election: State Supreme Court

Voters will cast their ballot to to determine whether to

retain Justice Robert H. Edmunds(Guilford)

@NCFEF

Linda H. Stephens - D1st Term (Wake)

Phil Berger, Jr.Orange - REP

Bob Hunter - R1st Term [2014]

(Guilford)

Abe JonesWake – DEM

Richard Dietz - R1st Term (Forsyth)

Vince RozierWake – DEM

Valerie Zachary - R1st Term [2015]

(Yadkin)

Rickye McKoy-MitchellMecklenburg – DEM

2016 Election: Court of Appeals

@NCFEF

What to watch?

How GOP nomination process plays out

Impact on ‘enthusiasm gap’

If Trump is the GOP nominee, how does that impact NC’s GOP candidates

May put NC (more) in play

Significance of GOP infighting

Within GOP House Caucus, within GOP HQ

What to watch?

Does US Senate race become a target

Don’t think so, except that NC = purple

Will resources matter most in Legislative races

Yes

Will a strong GOP slate for Council of State help up-ballot candidates?

Couldn’t hurt


Questions?

Joe StewartExecutive [email protected]

(919) 614-0520

www.ncfef.org

@ncfef

NCFEF

2016 ncfef post primary briefing

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