2016 q4 investment webinar - the san diego foundation

13
Quarterly Investment Narrative Conference Call Monday, February 13, 2017

Upload: the-san-diego-foundation

Post on 12-Apr-2017

47 views

Category:

Government & Nonprofit


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: 2016 Q4 Investment Webinar - The San Diego Foundation

Quarterly Investment Narrative Conference Call

Monday, February 13, 2017

Page 2: 2016 Q4 Investment Webinar - The San Diego Foundation

Speakers

Horacio Valeiras, CFA Principal, HAV Capital

Investment Chair, Board of Governors The San Diego Foundation

Matt Fettig, CFA Vice President, Chief Investment Officer

The San Diego Foundation

Adrienne Vargas Vice President, Chief Giving Officer

The San Diego Foundation

Page 3: 2016 Q4 Investment Webinar - The San Diego Foundation

Agenda

1. Macroeconomic update

2. Performance & attribution for Endowment Portfolio

3. Performance & attribution for Long-Term Portfolio

4. Performance & attribution for Medium-Term Portfolio

5. Performance & attribution for Short-Term Portfolio

6. Q&A

Page 4: 2016 Q4 Investment Webinar - The San Diego Foundation

U.S. Equities

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16

Russell 3000

Source: Russell Investments, as of 12/30/16

Page 5: 2016 Q4 Investment Webinar - The San Diego Foundation

S&P500 EPS

Source: FactSet, as of 12/30/16

$20

$22

$24

$26

$28

$30

$32

$34

$36

Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17

Actual Estimate

Page 6: 2016 Q4 Investment Webinar - The San Diego Foundation

MSCI Valuation Metrics

1.6

19.9

9.7

3.2 5.0

2.8

22.9

13.4

2.1

4.4

1.5

14.6

8.7

2.6

6.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

P/BV P/E Price/Cash Earnings

Dividend Yield (%)

Earnings Yield (%)

EAFE United States Emerging Markets

Source: MSCI, as of 12/31/16

Page 7: 2016 Q4 Investment Webinar - The San Diego Foundation

10 Year Return 90% Confidence Interval

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30% R

etur

n

5th to 25th 25th to 50th 50th to 75th 75th to 95th 10 Year Forecast (Geometric) High Volatility

Low Volatility

Page 8: 2016 Q4 Investment Webinar - The San Diego Foundation

Performance & attribution for Endowment Portfolio

Asset Allocation $446.3 million as of December 31, 2016

Includes Principal Only

Returns For period ending December 31, 2016

Domestic Fixed Income,

9.9%

Global/Int'l Fixed Income,

6.8%

Domestic Equity, 25.5%

Global Equity, 5.8%

Alternative, 20.0%

Commodities, 4.2%

Real Estate, 7.3%

Int'l Equity, 20.5%

Cash, 0.1%

Qtr. 1-Yr 3-Yr 5-Yr 7-Yr 10-Yr TSDF Actual 1.3% 8.5% 3.5% 7.7% 7.1% 4.3% Policy Index 0.9% 8.1% 3.4% 7.4% 6.8% 4.3%

0%

5%

10%

Page 9: 2016 Q4 Investment Webinar - The San Diego Foundation

Performance & attribution for Long-Term Portfolio

Asset Allocation $40.5 million as of December 31, 2016

Returns

Alternative Investment,

20.10%

Fixed Income, 18.80%

Int'l Equity, 25.53%

Domestic Equity, 26.24%

Real Estate, 4.00%

Commodities, 5.20% Cash, 0.00%

Qtr. 1 Yr 3-Yr 5-Yr 7-Yr 10-Yr TSDF Actual 0.40% 8.90% 2.50% 6.40% 6.00% 4.00% Policy Index 0.40% 7.40% 2.60% 6.50% 6.30% 4.40%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

Page 10: 2016 Q4 Investment Webinar - The San Diego Foundation

Performance & attribution for Medium-Term Portfolio

Asset Allocation $51.3 million as of December 31, 2016

Returns

Domestic Fixed Income,

56.20% Domestic Equity, 15.20%

Cash, 5.00%

Int'l Equity, 14.90%

Global/Int'l Fixed Income,

3.70% Commodities,

5.10%

Qtr. 1-Yr 3-Yr 5-Yr 7-Yr 10-Yr TSDF Actual 0.00% 6.20% 1.30% 3.90% 4.00% 2.80% Policy Index -0.90% 4.60% 1.80% 3.70% 4.20% 3.30%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

Page 11: 2016 Q4 Investment Webinar - The San Diego Foundation

Performance & attribution for Short-Term Portfolio

Asset Allocation $20 million as of December 31, 2016

Returns

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

12/31/15 3/31/16 6/30/16 9/30/16 12/31/16 TSDF Actual 0.00% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%

Page 12: 2016 Q4 Investment Webinar - The San Diego Foundation

Q&A

To submit questions for the Q&A, please use the “Questions” chat function

Page 13: 2016 Q4 Investment Webinar - The San Diego Foundation

Thank You

SDFoundation.org/Investments