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Systems Thinking Overview
TNT 2008
Sources from The Open University acknowledged
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My Background
• Fellow of Mech. Engg. & Management• 40 years applying systems to business• 13 years as independent consultant • 25 years tutoring OU systems courses• External examiner to Arab OU• Lecturer on analytical techniques for MBA• Course can be tailored in time & content
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Systems Thinking - Background
• Formalised in ’60s by Peter Checkland• Need grew as society became increasingly
“interconnected”• Opposite to “reductionism”, breaking things
down into components, as most Work Study• Decreases the detail by “going up” to see the
whole picture
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Systems Thinking - Utility
• Holistic view of human systems• Systems that have a purpose • Are complex and interconnected• Results - intended, unintended &
emergent properties– Try for them not to be a surprise
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Systems Thinking - Principles
• Looks from a higher level to sense the issues
• Uses many techniques to understand a problem
• Adopts analytical management techniques to decide what to do
• Embraces advanced management techniques for action and implementation
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Systems Thinking – A Toolbox
• So the method helps progressively– To sense the context of the problem– To understand the issues– To decide upon options to solve– To act to an agreed plan
• Systems Thinking has its own language• Integrates with advanced management
concepts
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The objective of the course
hammer
hammerer
hammered
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Course Aims
• Encourage an interest in systems thinking• Develop an awareness of systems
– Their properties– Their interconnectedness
• Enable student to start to think systemically– Or at least differently, openly
• Create confidence to test on real problems
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Learning Outcomes
• Understand where systems thinking is different• Understand the meaning of systems terms • Be alert to the perspectives of others• Create 6 types of graphic analysis tool• Understand how systems thinking can be
useful• Create confidence in using some aspects• Provide links to other management concepts
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Course Modules
• Module 1 – Intros, Overview, ice breaker• Module 2 – Stakeholder analysis• Module 3 – Sensing & diagrams• Module 4 – Systems maps• Module 5 – Understanding & diagrams• Module 6 – Modelling, Indicators & Deciding • Module 7 – Acting & key management insights• Module 8 – Reporting, wrap up, feedback
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Own Language - Key ConceptsWorldview Perspectives Stakeholders
Messes Difficulties Trap
HolisticSystemic
ReductionistSystematic
SystemPurpose
Boundary Environment
ComplexityInter-connected
System of Interest
HierarchyLevelSub-system
Information EmergenceUnintended Consequences
Modelling Indicators Control Feedback
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System
• Connected components which do something– Systems must have an intended Purpose– May have emergent properties – not designed, but
desirable– Or unintended consequences – not designed, but
undesirable
• They have a hierarchy– Levels– Sub-systems– Environment
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Setting a Boundary (Purpose)
• Deciding a Boundary is key• Defines or isolates what is practical to
consider• Determines focus of study• Determines the Environment, • So Limits and Defines the Study
– inputs to the Terms of Reference
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Holistic
• Systematic or Reductionist– Perfect for many problems– Step after step towards the solution – The “traditional” approach of engineers
• Systems Thinking is about analysing complex problems in a holistic manner– Systemic, the total system – Look at all the issues and their implications– There will be many Inter-connections & Complexity
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Stakeholders & Perspectives
• We recognise that we are not all the same• We attempt to maximise the consensus• Care can usually create an optimum
solution• Stakeholders, no definition needed here
– Analysis can often be quite simple yet powerful as a 2x2 matrix
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Easeof
sale
P
MD
H
PH S
F
C
KEYS = SecurityF = FoodMD = Medical devicesP = PharmaC = CosmeticsH = HospitalsPH = HPAW = Water
W
Boston Market Matrix
Easier
HigherLower
Harder
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Modelling & Indicators
• Modelling performance of system/systems• Examples
– Economies– Spread of infection– Insurance risks
• Deciding on “true” indicators– Partial indicators
• The change in value of Key Indicators
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The SUDA Methodology
• There are many methodologies• This is one, sensible disciplined approach
– Sensing the problem– Understanding the issues– Deciding on the options for action– Acting – taking action
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Link to Diagramming
• Each type has an optimum use– Sort out your own ideas – Sensing– Suggest possible causes - Understanding– Suggest points of interest - Understanding– Determine impacts of actions - Deciding– Explain actions which may help – Acting
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Diagramming
A key part of understanding
&
Communicating to the Steering Group
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Diagramming
• The common types– Spray Diagram– Rich Picture– Systems Map– Influence Diagram– Multiple Cause Diagram– Sign Graph– Control Diagram
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Why use Diagrams
• As an aid to study and note taking– Spray diagram
• Convince others with emotion Rich Picture– with facts all the rest
• Analyse how it works• Many diagram types
– Convey information – facts & stimulate ideas• Fortunately T214 only uses 5 types• A picture is worth a 1,000 words
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Factors to Consider
• Purpose of the diagram– to aid your own thinking– to inform or convince others
• Assess the Influence or Effects of the factors involved
• Estimate the effects of key factors
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Diagrams used for Sensing
• Sensing the problem– Spray diagram– Rich picture– Systems map (this can also be used in the
understanding phase to determine the structure of problems)
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Spray Diagram
• Excellent for note taking– Use one per topic in initial studies– Then look for common themes– Re-draw showing connections to central topic
• Not just a list, should convey some key relationships and the relative interests of stakeholders
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Spray Diagram
• Similar to diagrams known as “Mind Maps”• Excellent for note taking
– Use one per article/book when studying– Then look for common themes between the
sample– Re-draw showing connections to central topic
• Not just a list, should convey some key relationships and relative interests of key stakeholders or issues
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Spray Diagram of The Institution
TheInstitution
MemberRecruitmentMember
Services
Influence
PublicPerception
Non-members
Government
Press
Public
Regions
Events
Proceedings
PE
Publications
ILOs
R. ManagersStaff
BFIM
Marketing& PR
AssessmentProcess
Promotion
FeesAdmin
CompetingInstitutionsFig. 1
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Spray Diagram Exercise
• Consider examples passing around, mainly from students
• Think of the topic “My Journey to this Tutorial”
• Individually write a list of the stakeholders involved
Now draw a Spray Diagram in groups
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Rich Picture
• Requires a little more feel for the topic• Does require an element of artistic talent
– Do not get round this by excessive clip-art– Can convey emotion like art or photos
• You know good RPs when you see them– They usually show a linking thread of ideas
• Road from small (closed) shops to busy supermarkets
• Pollution in river from industry to leisure areas• Studying at home with problems & distractions
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Rich Picture
• A little more knowledge of the topic• Does require some artistic talent
– Can convey emotion like good art or photos• You know good ones when you see them
– They usually show a linking thread of ideas• Road from small (closed) shops to supermarkets• Pollution in river from industry outflow to fishermen• Studying at home with problems & distractions
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Studying at Home
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Rich Picture Exercise
• Consider examples passing around, mainly from students
• Consider all the SDs of “My Journey to this Tutorial”
Now draw a Rich Picture in groups
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Systems Map
• Show relationship between systems and components of systems
• Must have a named boundary– may need to experiment with the boundary
• Want to see levels• Some overlapping is acceptable• Each sub-system must be named• We have mentioned where conventions
matter
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A Relevant Example
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Systems Map Exercise
• Consider examples passing around, mainly from students
• Think of the topic “Where I Live”
• Individually write a list of the entities involved
Now draw a Systems Map in groups
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Systems Map of The Institution
The Institution
Governance
TB
Audit
C
Admin
FMCater
Finance
M Services
BFLib
Room Book
BC
Pubs
PE
Bks
Proc
PublicServices
IT
Development
MB
Learned Soc
TSB
LASC
M Recruit
QMB Outsource Co
Disc.
Regions
Divns
TACs Grps
WP
Events
ILOs
CPD
Govt.Register
Fig. 2
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Example Problems
• The “practitioner” course allows groups to work on current topical examples
• They witness varying perspectives• The observe new insights
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Diagrams for Understanding
• Understanding the problem– Systems map– Influence diagram – Multiple cause diagram– Sign graph– Modelling techniques and flow diagrams
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Influence Diagram on Potential Members
NationalEvents
Service
Prestige
PR
QualifiedNon
Members
Government
NationalPress
Public
Members
Profit
LocalEvents
Fig. 3
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MC Diagram of Delivery
NationalEvents
LocalRoom
MoreNo.1 Rm
Hire
LocalEvents
Grps/WPs(c.15)
TACs(c.30)
Regions(16)
Centres(23)
No.1Room
OtherRoom
Electronic
Non-membersServed
MembersServed
Poss.Profit
SmallCosts
?
Fig. 4
BranchesAreasPanels
National Local
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Techniques for Deciding
• Sign Graphs or Control Diagrams• Multiple Criteria analysis (MCA)• Strength Weakness Opportunity & Threat
(SWOT)• Social, Technical, Economic & Political
(STEP)• 4 Ws & an H What, How, Why, When &
Where?• Modelling
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Modelling
• Selection of techniques• Spreadsheets
– Pre-formatted– “Self built”
• Prediction of changed performance• Essential to decide/agree indicators
– Qualitative– Quantitative
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Frequently Referenced Authors
• Handy 4 cultures• Hofstede’s culture categories • Bates pathologies• Pfeffer• Sterner and many others
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Frequently Referenced Concepts
• Top down, bottom up• Emergent & Managed Change• Problem Articulating Skills• Simplifying Strategies
– Selective attention, Assuming continuity over time, Local focus, Typifying, Averaging
• Colonisation, Collaboration• Interpenetration, boundary people,
interlocking elites
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Comment on Modules
• Modules 1 – 6 can be expanded to 2 days• Client specific project preparation can be
added to a third day• Arab OU tutor training of 18 hours of
material• A more in depth follow-up is possible
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Course Delivery
• This course is tailored in time & content• Objective:
– Management overview 2 - 4 hours– Practitioner team 2 – 3 days– An OU qualification 2 – 3 years
• Group size 4 - 12
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Course Deliveries
• Many years to OU students – 16 hours pa• Arab OU tutors – 24 hours• Various commercial clients
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Influence Diagram
• A influences B, not B certainly follows A– Not a flow diagram
• Can map onto a Systems Map, but go to individual entities not (sub) systems
• Should show– a boundary although you can start without
one – arrows show the direction of influence– have a key to the strength of influence
• When analysing them it is usually best to focus on concentrations of influences
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Influence Diagram - Hints• Basically Systems Maps with lines of influence added • Like SMs, snapshots of the system of interest • Use to highlight key influences between components • Be selective - show important influences only • Use space and relative distance to indicate nature of
relationship • Arrows are used to indicate direction of influence • Never double headed arrows - use two arrows • Nearly always arrows of influence from one entity to another• Use arrows of different thickness to denote different
strengths of influence• Provide a key• Keep crossed lines to a minimum - redraw to avoid
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Drawing a ID
• Start with topic of key interest in centre of space
• Add the major relevant influences• Add the “next layer” of contributory causes
and their links• Aim for between 7 and 15 “entities” • Revise and iterate, but keep your
discarded versions• Experiment with the appropriate Boundary• Review the purpose• It is a part of the ART of communication
– avoid too many lines crossing– correct level of detail for the purpose
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Influence Diagram Exercise
• Consider examples passing around, mainly from students
• Think of the topic “The choice of method of getting Children to School”
• Individually write a list of the factors involved
Now draw an Influence Diagram in groups
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Cause and Effect (1)
Cause
• Do “That” again• Trip to the Pictures• One for the Road• Do not follow WebZone
Effect (Ultimate)
• No Sweets• No GCSE!• No Driving Licence• No T205 pass
Examples indicate, that there may be many links in the chain
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Cause & Effect (2)
• A single cause can have one Effect• A single Cause can have multiple Effects• Number of single Causes produce the
same Effect
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Multiple Cause Diagram
• A causes B• Should show
– a boundary and – the direction of cause
• When using them it is often best to focus on concentrations of effects
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Good example
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Drawing a MC Diagram
• Start with topic of key interest in centre of space
• Add the major relevant causes• Add the “next layer” of contributory causes
and their links• Aim for between 7 and 15 “entities” • Revise and iterate, but keep your
discarded versions• Experiment with the appropriate Boundary• Review the purpose• It is a part of the ART of communication
– avoid too many lines crossing– correct level of detail for the purpose
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MC Diagram Exercise - Scout Hut
• Draw a MCD of the ‘messy problem’ ‘the scout group isn’t meeting’ based on the following types of event:– Holes in fencing– The scout hut is in disrepair– No-one with financial skill– Damage done by young people– No fundraising– Budget is unrealistic– Other people do not respect the property– Not enough money– Damage done by vandals– Young people do not respect the property– Property is not secure– Young people are not involved in the upkeep
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Key Features of MC Diagrams
• Most interesting outcomes – RESULTS• Main factors effecting THE INTERESTING
RESULTS– How are they measured
• Qualitatively on the diagram• Quantitatively via a Sign Graph
• Search for more links• Search for feedback loops
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Comparison between IDs & MCs
INFLUENCE DIAGRAMS
• Influences that have an effect on a situation, a broad view at an instant• Represents main structural features and relationships of a situation• Useful for exploring interrelationships • Title• Words labelling components in blobs of different sizes • Arrows – representing different degrees of influence by thicknesses, dotted• Key needed• Arrows may be labelled• System boundary distinguishing the system of interest from the environment
MULTIPLE CAUSE DIAGRAMS
• Causes, leading to events or types of event, sequential, not a snapshot• Represents causal relationships between states and events• Useful for exploring why something goes wrong, or keeps re-occurring• Title• States or situations in phrases• Arrows, single-headed, one thickness, all meaning ‘leads to, causes’• No key needed• Arrows may be labelled• System boundary is recommended, but I believe essential
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Considering The Boundary (Purpose)
• Think about the whole – holistic• Think about how it all works - systemic• Define or isolate that part which is
practical to consider• So defines and limits your Study• Or the Terms of Reference for a consultant
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Sign Graph
• Basically a MCD, but with a + or – sign added to each cause• Is the effect at one end, in the same direction at the other?• Can be more, less, in/decrease, higher, lower, etc.
– More car parking creates more car journeys• Label with +ve if the same effect
– Decrease in train fares, increases passenger journeys• Label with –ve if the opposite effect
• Check the loops for –ve signs only– If ODD number, negative feedback, generally good– If EVEN number, positive feedback, generally bad
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Feedback
• Positive Feedback– Amplifies variance– Can be unstable and dangerous
• Negative feedback– Reduces variance– Is stable and SAFER
• A long time lag– Can amplify variance, before corrective
action is taken– Is potentially dangerous
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Control Diagram
• Closed Loop– Ignore Open Loop, it only exists in theory
• A system has– Input– Transformation Process– Measured Output– Comparison of the Output with desired Goal– Actuator to adjust Input
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Control Diagram or Model
Input(s)“Black Box”Transformation Process
Output(s)
Feedback Loop
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Control Diagram or Model
Input(s)Input(s) ActuatorActuator “Black Box”Transformation Process
“Black Box”Transformation Process
ComparatorComparator
Output(s)Output(s)
GoalGoal
Feedback
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Summary of Factors to Consider
• Purpose of the diagram– to aid your own thinking– to inform or convince others
• Assess the Influence or Effects of the factors involved
• Estimate the Size of the effects of the factor• Use what you have learned in the rest of your
TMA
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And Finally
• Do practice doing the diagrams correctly to the conventions
• Can be more flexible on these conventions, once it is clear they have been mastered– Diagrams are tools– Their value is their utility for you and/or your
audience
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Any Questions?
Now or later to
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