22432 foresight review 2010 aw v5

8/6/2019 22432 Foresight Review 2010 AW v5

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/22432-foresight-review-2010-aw-v5 1/46



FORESIGHT ADVISES GOVERNMENT

ABOUT HOW TO ENSURETODAY’S DECISIONS ARE ROBUST TO AN

UNCERTAIN FUTURE.



CONTENTSHighlights

About Foresight

Government Chief Scientific Advisor’s forewordHead of Foresight’s report

Completed workGlobal Food and Farming Futures

Technology and Innovation Futures

Current work

Global Environmental MigrationComputer Trading in Financial Markets

International Dimensions of Climate Change

Our impactGlobal Food and Farming Futures

Land Use Futures

Sustainable Energy Management and the Built Environment

Mental Capital and Wellbeing Tackling Obesities: Future Choices

Detection and Identification of Infectious Diseases

Annexes

List of academics, other experts and organisations

involved with Foresight work

CONTENTS

4 / CONTENTS

>< CONTENTS

http://-/?-

http://-/?-

http://-/?-

http://-/?-



FORESIGHT ANNUAL REVIEW 2010 / 5

HIGHLIGHTS

JANUARY 2010

•ForesightHorizonScanningCentreeventon

International FuturesatWiltonPark

•JointForesightandScienceInnovationNetwork

seminaronAgeing

•ForesightinAfrica

–FANClubmeeting‘AfricanFutures’

FEBRUARY 2010

•LaunchoftheForesightprojectonLand Use Futures

•Global Environmental Migration:

International Modelling workshopheldinLondon,

withseniorinternationaleconomistsandmodellers

•InfrastructureUK:Visionfor2050

–ForesightHorizonScanningCentreworkshop

•SeminaronhorizonscanningwiththeGerman

Institute for International and Security Affairs

(SWP),Berlin

MARCH 2010

•AfricanUnionannouncecreationoftheEastern

AfricanCentreforInfectiousDiseaseSurveillance(EACIDS)Kampala,Uganda

•JointForesightandCabinetOfceworkshop

forStrategyUnit’sStrategicChallenges

•SeminarwithShellonfuturesanalysis

APRIL 2010

•LaunchoftheonlineversionoftheStrategic

Futures Training bytheForesightHorizon

ScanningCentre

•Global Environmental Migration: Drivers of

Migration workshopheldinLondon,withthe

project’s‘driverreview’authors,andleadexperts

•PresentationtotheSmith Schoolaboutthe

ForesightProgramme,Oxford

MAY 2010

•VisionaryThinking–Land Use FuturesfeaturedinGeographicalmagazine

JUNE 2010

•ForesightHorizonScanningCentreworkshop

onFutureofDemographyintheUK

•ForesightattheCheltenhamScienceFestival

–paneldebateson‘ClimateChangeand

Population’and‘ACarnivore’sDilemma’

JULY 2010

•ForesightattheUK Science Journalists conference

•WorkshoponGlobal Food and Farming Futures with

Forum for Agricultural Research in Africa (FARA)

BurkinaFaso

HIGHLIGHTS

CONTENTS< >



6 / ABOUT FORESIGHT

SEPTEMBER 2010•Feedingtheworldin2050–Driverreviews

fromGlobal Food and Farming Futurespublished

inPhilosophicalTransactionsoftheRoyalSociety

•NationalInfrastructurePlanscenarios

–ForesightHorizonScanningCentreworkshop

•PresentationtotheNew Synthesis Project onhow

countriescanprepareforthefuture,Singapore

OCTOBER 2010

•PresentationtotheBritish Ecological Society on

theForesightProgramme

•PresentationtotheKorea Institute for Science

and Technology Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP)

forum,Seoul

NOVEMBER 2010

•NewForesightprojectannounced

–Computer Trading in Financial Markets

sponsoredbyHerMajesty’sTreasury

•Technology and Innovation Futurespublished

bytheForesightHorizonScanningCentreproject

•ForesightandLiving with Environmental Change

workshoponTheLandUseDataChallengeand

ModellingtheLandUseSystem

•Feedingtheworld:top100questionsfor

policymakerspublishedforGlobal Food and

Farming Futures

•PresentationtotheHigh-Level Steering Group

for the Prioritisation of Publicly-Funded

Research,Ireland•EvidenceprovidedtoAll-Party Parliamentary

Group on Food, Agriculture and International

Development,London

DECEMBER 2010

•LaunchofthereportObesity Training for

Health Care Professionalspublishedbythe

RoyalCollegeofPhysicians

JANUARY 2011•LaunchoftheForesightprojectonGlobal Food

and Farming Futures

FEBRUARY 2011

•InternationalworkshopsfortheForesightproject

onGlobal Environmental Migration

•PresentationonGlobalFoodandFarmingFutures

attheAmerican Association for the

Advancement for Science

•DameClaraFurseappointedasChairtothe

LeadExpertGroupoftheForesightproject

onComputer Trading in Financial Markets

MARCH 2011

•AcademicworkshopfortheForesightproject

onComputer Trading in Financial Markets

•Howcansciencesupportfoodsecurity?–

Foresightworkshopat Joint Research Centre,

Brussels

•ForesightpresentationonGlobalFoodand

FarmingFuturestoBritish Chamber of Commerce,Brussels

•Jointworkshoponecosystemsserviceswiththe

Science Innovation Network ,Foreignand

CommonwealthOfce

APRIL 2011

•Howwillinternationalclimatechangeaffectthe

UK?–International Dimensions of Climate

Changenalworkshop

HIGHLIGHTS

> CONTENTS<




TheForesightProgrammeadvisesGovernmentand

othersabouthowtoensuretoday’sdecisionsare

robusttoanuncertainfuture.Wedothisbycombining

thelatestscientificandotherevidencewithfutures

analysistohelppolicymakerstacklecomplexissues.

Whilethefutureisuncertain,ourworkcanhelpto

identifypotentialopportunitiesandrisks.Foresight

bringstogetherdifferentGovernmentdepartments

tostimulateandinformthedevelopmentof

strategies,policiesandprioritiesthataremore

resilientandrobustacrossarangeofpossiblefutures.

ForesightisheadedbytheGovernmentChiefScientific

Adviser,ProfessorSirJohnBeddington,whoreports

directlytothePrimeMinisterandCabinet.ItisapartoftheGovernment Office for Sciencewithin

theDepartment for Business, Innovation & Skills.

MoreinformationaboutForesightandtheimpact

ithasmadeinGovernmentcanbefoundonthe

Foresightwebsiteatwww.bis.gov.uk/foresight

ABOUTFORESIGHTSince its creation in 1994 the Foresight Programme has helped Government

to think systematically about the future.

ABOUT FORESIGHT

< > CONTENTS



8 / ABOUT FORESIGHT

TheForesightProjectonGlobal Food and Farming

FuturespublishedinJanuary2011soughttoaddresswhatIconsiderisoneofthemostimportantglobal

challenges:howtofeedaglobalpopulationthatis

projectedtoriseto9billionormoreby2050.This

projectwasamajorendeavorinvolvingover400

leadingexpertsandstakeholdersfrom35countries,

includingkeyinternationalorganisationssuchasthe

UN’sHigh-LevelTaskForceonGlobalFood

SecurityandtheOECD.Sincepublicationthereport

hasbeenlaunchedincollaborationwiththeJoint

ResearchCentreoftheEuropeanCommissionto

theEuropeanpolicycommunity,andpresentedat

theUN’sFoodandAgriculturalOrganization.

Theprojecthasbenefitedconsiderablyfrom

engagementwithoursponsordepartmentsthrough

SecretaryofStatesCarolineSpelmanMPatthe

DepartmentforEnvironment,FoodandRuralAffairs

andAndrewMitchellMPattheDepartmentfor

InternationalDevelopment.Thesestronglevelsof

engagementhavecontinuedacrossWhitehallsince

publicationasthereportinformsarangeofinitiatives.

GOVERNMENTCHIEF SCIENTIFICADVISER’SFOREWORD

FOREWORD

Professor Sir John Beddington CMG FRSGovernment Chief Scientific Adviserand Head of the Government Office

for Science

> CONTENTS<




Global Food and Farming Futures callsforurgent

actiontoredesignthefoodsystemtoaddresstheincreasingdemandsplaceduponit.Itarguesthatthe

globalfoodsystemmustbecomesustainable,whilst

adaptingtoclimatechangeandsubstantially

contributingtoclimatechangemitigation.

Furthermore,withalmostonebillionofthemost

vulnerablepeoplestillsufferingfromhungeranda

furtherbillionlackingsufficientmicronutrientsand

vitamins,thereisacompellingneedtoredouble

effortstoaddresshunger.

Overthepastyearwehavealsotackledtwoother

projectsonkeyareasofgovernmentpolicy.Global

Environmental Migrationisexaminingthepatterns

andimpactsofhumanmigrationoverthenext

50yearsandhowthesecouldchangedueto

climatechangeandotherenvironmentalfactors.

International Dimensions of Climate Changehas

identifiedtheriskandopportunitiesposedby

climatechangeimpactsoverseasfortheUKand

theevidencebasewillinformtheUK’sfirstClimate

ChangeRiskAssessment(asrequiredbylaw

throughthe2008ClimateChangeAct)toensure

thattheGovernment’spolicyonadaptationtoclimatechangetakesappropriateaccountof

internationalimpacts.Bothprojectsreportin2011.

Foresight’sroleintacklingdifficultbutcriticalissues

isfurtherexemplifiedinourlatestproject:

Computer Trading in Financial Markets.Sponsored

byMarkHobanMP,theFinancialSecretarytoHer

Majesty’sTreasury,thisprojectwillstudyhow

financialmarketsarebeingtransformedbyfast-

pacedtechnologicalprogress,andevaluatetherisks

andopportunitiesthatwillariseinthefuture.

Asever,mysincerethanksgoestothemany

hundredsofexpertsandstakeholders,bothinthe

UKandabroad,whohavecontributedtoForesight’s

growingimpact.

< > CONTENTS



10 / ABOUT FORESIGHT

LastyearwaspivotalforForesightwiththe

publicationofourmostambitiousreporttodate,

andthefirsttobecommissionedbySirJohn

Beddington.Global Food and Farming Futures

entailedextensivecollaborationwithinternationalresearchandpolicycommunities.Ithighlighted

Foresight’sroleintacklingcritical,complexissues,

andanalysedawealthofevidencebeforeconcluding

thattheglobalfoodsystemisfailingandthat

sustainabilityneedstobebroughtcentrestage.

Thereportdescribesfivebroadstrategiesthat

canhelpaddressthisglobalchallenge.Foresight

willbefollowingupthisreportwithitssponsor

departments,theDepartmentforEnvironment,

FoodandRuralAffairsandtheDepartmentfor

InternationalDevelopment,andawiderangeofnationalandinternationalorganisationstohelp

catalyseactionthroughout2011.

TheForesightHorizonScanningCentre’sreport

Technology and Innovation Futureswaswelcomed

bytheScienceMinisterDavidWilletsandoffersa

forwardlookatarangeofpotentialdevelopments

overthenext20yearstosupportsustained

economicgrowthintheUK.Itsmessageswere

reflectedintheNationalInfrastructurePlan

HEAD OFFORESIGHT’SREPORT

FORESIGHT REPORT

Professor Sandy ThomasHead of Foresight, Government Officefor Science

> CONTENTS<




developedbyInfrastructureUK;itiscurrently

informingtheDepartmentofEnergyandClimate

Change’sGreenDealandwillcontributetothe

recentlyannouncedResearchandInnovation

StrategyledbytheDepartmentforBusiness,InnovationandSkills.

OurprojectonGlobal Environmental Migration

heldfourinternationalworkshopsexaminingthe

implicationsofglobalenvironmentalchangeon

migrationpatternsindifferenteco-regions.By

involvinginternationalacademics,internationaland

regionalagencies,andlocalgovernment,these

eventsenabledtheprojecttodrawuponinnovative

ideasandlocalperspectivesforthefinalreport.

Theprojectwillreportinautumn2011.

ThenewForesightprojectonComputer in Financial

Marketshasmadesubstantialprogress.Announced

inthelatterhalfof2010,thisprojecthasassembled

adistinguishedleadexpertgroup,chairedbyDame

ClaraFurse,formerCEOoftheLondonStock

Exchange,toleadthetechnicalwork.Theproject

isalreadyengagingsubstantiallywithimportant

internationalpolicydevelopments.

International Dimensions of Climate Changeis

thefirstofanewshortertypeofForesightproject

whichhasexaminedhowclimatechangeimpacts

inotherpartsoftheworldcouldaffecttheUK.

CommissionedbyDefratoinformtheClimateChangeRiskassessment,ithasstimulatedinterest

acrossgovernmentinthesecurityimplicationsof

climatechange.

In2010,ForesightalsoworkedcloselywithLiving

WithEnvironmentalChangeandDefratoensure

thatitsLand Use Futuresreportinformedthe

recentlypublishedtheNaturalEnvironmentWhite

Paper,andtheNationalEcosystemsAssessment.

Also,Iampleasedtonotetheinfluencethatthe

Mental Capital and Wellbeingreport’semphasisonpositivewellbeingcontinuestohaveonimportant

aspectsofGovernment’sthinking,suchasthenew

cross-GovernmentmentalhealthstrategyNo health

without mental health.

Iamdeeplygratefultothemanypeoplewhohave

contributedtoForesight’sworkoverthepastyear.

< > CONTENTS



12 / COMPLETED WORK

Thereportemphasisesthatweareatauniquemomentinhistoryasdiversefactorssuchas

changesintheclimate;competitionforresources,

forexamplewatersupplyandenergy;andchanging

consumptionpatternsconvergeandprovide

considerablechallengestosustainingtheworld’s

foodsupply.Whilsttheglobalfoodsystemcurrently

deliversformany,itisfailingintwocriticalways;

consumingtheworld’snaturalresourcesatan

unsustainablerate;andfailingtheverypoorest,

withalmostonebillionoftheleastadvantagedand

mostvulnerablepeoplestillsufferingfromhunger

andmalnutrition.

Thereport,publishedinJanuary2011,arguesthat

urgentactionisneededtoredesignthefoodsystem

tofeedtheworld’sgrowingpopulation.

GLOBAL FOODAND FARMINGFUTURESThe Foresight project Global Food and Farming Futures explored how a future

global population of 9 billion people can all be fed healthily and sustainably.

COMPLETED WORK

< > CONTENTS




< > CONTENTS



14 / COMPLETED WORK

How we did the projectThetwoyearprojecthascommissionedover

80scientificreviews;involvedover400leadingexperts

andstakeholdersfrom35countries.Theproject

hasbeenguidedbyahighlevelsteeringgroupof

internationalexpertsfromtheUN,EU,WorldBank,

industryandcivilsociety;anddrawsonotherwell

regardedinternationalreports.Strategicdirection

fortheprojectwasprovidedbytheHigh-Level

StakeholderGroupwhichwasco-chairedby

Jim Paice MP,MinisterofStateforAgricultureand

Food,DepartmentforEnvironment,FoodandRuralAffairs(Defra)andStephen O’Brien MP,

ParliamentaryUnderSecretaryofStateforInternational

Development,DepartmentforInternational

Development(Dfid).TheLeadExpertGroup,

chairedbyProfessorCharlesGodfray,Oxford

University,ensuredthattheprojectusedthebest

evidenceavailable.Theproject’sdiverseevidence

basewaspublishedinthreepeer-reviewedjournals

includingtheRoyal Society Philosophical

Transactions Bandthe Journal of AgriculturalScience.Awiderangeofsubjectsfromfoodpolicy

togenderissueswerecoveredintheproject.

Thepapersarealsoavailablefreeofchargeon

theForesightwebsite.

Project conclusions

TheForesightreportarguesthatthefoodsystemmust

becomesustainable,whilstadaptingtoclimatechange

andsubstantiallycontributingtoclimatechange

mitigation.Thereisalsoaneedtoredoubleeffortsto

addresshunger.Theprojecthasidentifiedandanalysed

thefollowingfivekeychallengesforthefuture:see

pageoppositeforasummary.

ForesightwillworkcloselywiththeDepartmentsfor

Environmental,FoodandRuralAffairsandInternational

Developmentandtheproject’sHigh-LevelStakeholder

Groupoverthenextyeartoensurethereport’s

findingsandevidencebaseinformfuturepolicies.

Visitthe‘our impact’sectiontoseewhatimmediate

influencetheForesightprojectGlobalFoodand

FarmingFutureshasalreadymade.

COMPLETED WORK

< > CONTENTS




1. Balancing future demand and supply

sustainably to ensure that food supplies

are affordable.Thefoodsystemiscurrentlyconsumingresources

fasterthantheyarebeingnaturallyreplenishedand

renewed.Itconsumes70%oftotalglobalwater

withdrawalsfromriversandaquifersanddirectly

contributes10-12%ofgreenhousegas(GHG)

emissions.Theglobalfoodsystemhastobe

redesignedtobringsustainabilitycentrestage.

Supplymustbeincreasedwithoutbringingin

substantiallynewlandforagriculture.Thereport

arguesthatmorefoodcanbedeliveredbyusing

existingknowledgeandinnovationbetterto

increaseproduction;moderatingdemand;managing

waste;improvinggovernance;andraisingthepolitical

profileoffood.

2. Ensuring that there is adequate stability

in food supplies and protecting the most

vulnerable from the volatility that does occur.

Whiletheamountofvolatilityremainsuncertain,

pricespikesinthefutureareinevitable.While

volatilityhasbeenloweroverthepast20years,

pricespikesin2007/8hadaprofoundimpact

increasinghungerandtherisksofpoliticalandsocial

instability.Althoughpredictingthefutureiscomplex,

thereareclearactionsthatcanbetakentomanage

volatility.Theyinclude:creatingreliablerules-based

liberalisedinternationaltrade;investigatingmodern

commoditytrading;cautiononcallsforaglobal

systemofgrainreserves;appropriateinsurancefor

poorfarmers;andtargetingfoodreservesandsafety

nets.Aspricesinearly2011exceedthehighof

2008,protectionofthemostvulnerablegroupsfromtheworsteffectsoffoodpricevolatilitymust

beprioritised.

3. Achieving global access to food and

ending hunger.

Thefoodsystemisfailingtoaddresshunger.Inaddition tothe925millionpeoplecurrentlyexperiencing

hunger,anotherbillionarethoughttosufferfrom

‘hiddenhunger’.Incontrast,abillionpeopleare

over-consuming.Effortstoendhungerinternationally

arealreadystalling,andwithoutdecisiveactionfood

pricescouldrisesubstantiallyoverthenext40years

makingthesituationworse.Astrongerconstituency

forhungerreductionneedstobebuilt.Thebenefits

ofagriculturetosupportwomenandsmall-holder

farming,andimprovenutritionandhealthmustbe

recognised.Effortsmustbefocusedonrebuilding

infrastructure;creatingbettermonitoringand

evaluation,forexample,usinghungermapstotarget

hungerhot-spots;andbuildinganti-hunger

momentumsohungerishardertoignore.

4. Managing the contribution of the food

system to the mitigation of climate change.

Agriculture’scontributionof10-12%ofGHG

emissionsrisesto30%ormorewhenland

conversionandcostsbeyondthefarmgateare

added.Addressingclimatechangeandachieving

sustainabilityintheglobalfoodsystemneedto

berecognisedasdualimperatives.Ambitious,and

insomecaseslegallybindingtargetsforreducing

emissionshavebeensetwhichcannotbeachieved

withoutthefoodsystemplayinganimportantpart.

Thereisaclearcaseforsubstantiallyintegratingand

improvingagricultureandfoodproductionin

negotiationsonglobalemissionsreductions.

5. Maintaining biodiversity and ecosystemservices while feeding the world.

Decisionstakennowwillaffectthediversityofplant

andanimalspeciesforfuturegenerations.Foodsupply

willneedtoincreasewithouttheuseofsubstantially

morelandandwithdiminishingimpactonthe

environment:sustainableintensificationisanecessity.

Thereportarguesthatpoliciesforfoodproduction

andmaintainingbiodiversityandecosystemservices

needtobedevelopedandproperlyconnectedat

bothglobalandnationallevels.

Top Five Challenges – Global Food And Farming Futures

< > CONTENTS



16 / COMPLETED WORK

•Waste must be minimised in all areas of the

food chain:Anamountoffoodequivalentto

aboutaquarteroftoday’sannualproduction

couldpotentiallybesavedby2050ifthecurrent

estimateofglobalfoodwasteishalved.

•Focus on sustainability:theapplicationofexisting

knowledgeandtechnologycouldincreaseaverage

yieldsbytwotothreefoldinmanypartsofAfrica,

andtwofoldintheRussianFederation.Similarly,

globalproductivityinaquaculturecould,withlimited

changestoinputs,beraisedbyaround40%.

• Improving governance of the global food system:

Itisimportanttoreducesubsidiesandtrade

barriersthatdisadvantagepoorcountries.The

project’seconomicmodellingshowshowtrade

restrictionscanamplifyshocksinthefoodsystem,

raisingpricesfurther.

•Knowledge is power:Investmentinnewscience

andtechnologytoraisethelimitsofsustainable

productionandaddressnewthreatswillbe

essential.Noonetechnologyortypeofresearch

willbeasilverbulletforaddressingsustainable

production.Wewillneedtoincreaseour

understandingofanimalstoimproveyieldswhile

stillincreasingwater,nutrientandotherefciencies.

Also,wewillneedtoprioritiseresearchonclimatechangeadaptationandmitigationinthefood

system,forexample,producingcropsthatare

droughtandoodresistant.

COMPLETED WORK

Key messages from the report

< > CONTENTS




Media CoverageTheprojectGlobalFoodandFarmingFuturesheld

apressbriefingforscience,environmentandfarming

correspondentsattheScienceMediaCentreand

anotherforinternationalcorrespondentsbasedin

LondonthroughtheForeignandCommonwealth

OfficeonMonday24January2011.Thereport

receivedextensiveprintandbroadcastcoverage

inboththenationalandinternationalpress.Afulllist

ofmediaimpactcanbefoundontheForesightwebsite

butaselectionofmediacoveragecanbefoundbelow:

Welcome for report on food securityThe Scotsman

‘No easy solution’ to global hungerThe Today Programme

Global food stocks face crisis,

says chief scientistBBC Breakfast

Global food system must betransformed ‘on industrialrevolution scale’The Guardian

Era of low-cost food is over,study warnsThe Financial Times

Food prices to rocket by 50% asglobal hunger epidemic causesriots and faminesDaily Mail

People ‘should be discouragedfrom eating meat’The Times

GM crops ‘could feed the world’Press Association

Experts warn of spikes in globalfood pricesToronto Star

Groundbreaking food securityreport calls for urgent actionMalaysia Sun

Scientists and Ministers call fornew agricultural revolutionFarmer’s Guardian

Linking policy on climate and foodScience Magazine

Farming needs ‘sustainableintensication’ says reportSciDev Net

< > CONTENTS

http://www.bis.gov.uk/foresight/our-work/projects/published-projects/global-food-and-farming-futures/media-impact

http://www.bis.gov.uk/foresight/our-work/projects/published-projects/global-food-and-farming-futures/media-impact



18 / COMPLETED WORK

Comments on the report

“We need a global, integrated approach to food security, one that looksbeyond the food system to the inseparable goals of reducing poverty,tackling climate change and reducing biodiversity loss – and the UKGovernment is determined to show the international leadership neededto make that happen. We can unlock an agricultural revolution in thedeveloping world, which would benefit the poorest the most, simply

by improving access to knowledge and technology, creating betteraccess to markets and investing in infrastructure. To fuel this revolution,we must open up global markets, boost global trade and make reformsthat help the poorest. Trade restrictions must be avoided, especiallyat times of scarcity. And we must manage price volatility by buildingtrust and cooperation – and in particular by creating greater transparencyaround the true levels of food stocks.”

Environment Secretary Caroline Spelman

COMPLETED WORK

< > CONTENTS




“With one seventh of the world’s population still hungry, this reportis a clarion call to arms. The food price crisis in 2008 increased thenumber of people suffering from hunger by 150 million. Today reportsof increasing food prices once again fill the news – and it’s clear fromthis new study that price volatility is only set to increase in the futuremaking further food price spikes inevitable. Internationally, those with

the least spend the largest proportion of their income on food, so foodprice shocks hit the poorest hardest and can have long term impactson their health. Britain is already working to tackle malnutrition,improve agriculture, and get new research into the hands of the poorestpeople. Steps taken now and pushed through over the next few decadesto stabilise global markets, reduce volatility and prioritise agriculturewill have a disproportionate effect on ensuring food security fora predicted nine billion people by 2050.”

International Development Secretary Andrew Mitchell

< > CONTENTS



20 / COMPLETED WORK

Technology and Innovation Futuresisaforward

lookatarangeofdevelopmentswhichhavethepotentialoverthenext20yearstosupport

sustainedeconomicgrowthintheUK.AstheUK

comesoutoftheeconomicdownturn,itseemslikely

thatfutureeconomicprosperitywillderiveinlarge

partfromseizingopportunitiesofferedby

technologiessuchasthese.

PublishedinNovember2010,thereportconcludes

thattherearestrongopportunitiesforgrowthinthe

UKeconomythroughthe2020sifbusinessescan

harnessscientificandindustrialcapabilitiestotakeadvantageoftechnologydevelopments.Itidentifies

threepotentialareasofgrowthwhichcouldbe

transformative:manufacturing,infrastructureandthe

internet.Otherareashighlightedbythereportare

theenergytransitionwhichtheUKwillundergo

duringthenext10-20years,theUK’sR&Defforts

innewmaterialswhichcouldhelprealisethemove

toalowcarboneconomy,thepotentialofthe

marketforregenerativemedicineandthe

increasingimportanceofintellectualproperty,all

ofwhichofferopportunitiesforUKcompanies.

TheevidenceusedintheTechnologyand

InnovationFuturesprojectwasgatheredbydeskwork,andinterviewswith25leadingfigures

fromresearchandbusiness,andfiveworkshops

involving150academics,industrialists,andexperts

fromtheprivatesectorandGovernment.The

workshopsusedfuturestechniquestoprovokeand

structurediscussions.

ThereportwaswelcomedbyMinisterfor

UniversitiesandScience,DavidWilletswhosaid:

“Thistimelyreportlooksathowwecanbenefitfrom thegrowthopportunitiesofthenext20yearsin

manufacturing,health,communicationsandenergy.

Itcallsformoreactivecooperationbetweenlarge

companies,smallandmediumenterprisesand

researcherstoplanambitiousstrategiesforthebenefit

oftheirsectors.Developmentsinthisareawillhelp

strengthenoureconomyandenableustoleadthe

wayforinnovation.”

TECHNOLOGYAND INNOVATIONFUTURESTechnological developments have the ability to transform our economy.

COMPLETED WORK

< > CONTENTS




< > CONTENTS



22 / CURRENT WORK

TheForesightprojectonGlobal EnvironmentalMigration wascommissionedbySirJohnBeddington

inOctober2009,andwillbepublishedinautumn2011.

Theprojectwillconsiderglobalmigrationwhichoccurs

inthecontextoffutureenvironmentalchange,with

afocusonthosewhomoveandthosewhostay

behind,andthepolicyimplicationsforallinvolved.

Itwillexplore:

•Globalpatternsofmigrationandhowtheymaybeaffectedbyenvironmentalchangeoverthe

next50years;

•Thechallengesandopportunitiesthatcouldresult

fromchangingmigrationpatterns;and

•Howthesemaybeaddressed,usingthemost

up-to-datescienceandknowledgeinarangeof

areasofwhichoverlapwithenvironmentalchange

andmigrationpolicy.

Partoftheresearchcommissionedbytheproject

focusesonthedriversofmigration,includingsocial,

political,environmental,economicanddemographic

factors,andtheimpactofenvironmentalchangeuponthese.Thesecommissionedpieceswillbe

publishedinaspecialeditionofthejournalGlobal

Environmental Changeintheautumn.

Theprojectheldfourinternationalworkshopsin

Dhaka(Bangladesh),Istanbul(Turkey),Kathmandu

(Nepal)andJohannesburg(SouthAfrica)todeepen

itsanalysisandunderstanding.Thelocationsreflect

theproject’skey‘eco-regions’,areasofsignificant

humanhabitationwhichareacutelyvulnerableto

environmentalchange,includinglowelevation

coastalzonesandsmallislandstates,drylandsand

mountainousregions.TheMediterraneanisalso

afocusasitcontainselementsofallthreeregions.

Theworkshopsbroughttogetherexpertsfrom

acrosstheglobetoconsiderthefutureofglobal

environmentalmigration.Workshopattendees

focusedspecificallyonfuturechallengesand

opportunitiespresentedwithineachregion,

andidentifiedbothgeneralandregion-specificpolicyoptions.

GLOBALENVIRONMENTALMIGRATIONForesight’s latest project will examine how environmental change could affect

human migration around the world, out to 2060.

CURRENT WORK

< > CONTENTS




Throughstructureddiscussionandworkshopquestions,theattendeesofeachworkshoptested

theproject’semergingfindingsandconceptual

frameworks.Theworkshopreportswillcontribute

directlytotheproject,toensurethefinalForesight

reportisrelevanttointernationalpolicymakers

withinthefourregions.

< > CONTENTS



24 / CURRENT WORK

Foresight’smostrecentprojectwillexaminethe

challengesandopportunitiespresentedbytechnological

advancesinfinancialmarketsworldwide.Inrecent

yearsthewaysinwhichfinancialmarketsoperate

havebeentransformedbyfast-pacedtechnological

progress.Forexample,thevolumeoffinancialproducts

tradedthroughcomputerautomatedtrading,taking

placeathighspeedandwithlittlehuman

involvement,hasincreasedsubstantiallyinthepast

fewyears.Today,overone-thirdoftheUK’sequity

tradingvolumeisgeneratedthroughhighfrequency

automatedcomputertradingwhileintheUSthis

figureisclosertothree-quarters.

ThisForesightprojectComputerTradingin

FinancialMarkets,issponsoredbyHer Majesty’s

TreasuryandledbytheGovernment’sChief

ScientificAdviser,ProfessorSirJohnBeddington,

andaimstomakeasignificantcontributiontothe

efficiency,integrityandresilienceoffinancialmarkets,byidentifyingoptionsforpolicymakersintheUK

andinternationally.

Itwillexplorehowcomputergeneratedtradingin

financialmarketsmightevolveoverthenextdecade

ormore,andhowthiswillaffect:

•Financialstability;

•Integrityofnancialmarkets,includingprice

informationandliquidity;

•Competition;

•Marketefciencyinallocatingcapital;

•Transactioncostsonaccesstonance;and

•Futureroleandlocationofcapitalmarkets.

Itwillalsoassesspolicyoptionsandconsiderhowthe

opportunitiesofferedbyadvancementsincomputer

technologiescouldbecapitaliseduponbythe

financialsector.

Theprojectisduetopublishinautumn2012.

COMPUTERTRADING INFINANCIALMARKETSFinancial markets have been transformed by fast-paced technological progress.

CURRENT WORK

< > CONTENTS




< > CONTENTS



26 / CURRENT WORK

Theprojectcombinesthebestfeaturesfrom

thelargecross-cuttingForesightstudiesandthe

shorterprojectsfromtheForesightHorizon

ScanningCentre.

TheClimateChangeActrequiresGovernment

toundertakeaClimateChangeRiskAssessment

fortheUK,thefirstofwhichwillbelaidinParliamentbyJanuary2012.TheClimateChangeRiskAssessment

istheprimaryevidencesourcethatwillinformthe

nationaladaptationpolicyprogramme,whichthe

ClimateChangeActrequirestheDepartment

forEnvironmentFoodandRuralAffairs(Defra)to

create.Thisproject,co-fundedbyDefraandthe

DepartmentforEnergyandClimateChange(Decc),

willenhancetheevidencebaseoftheClimate

ChangeRiskAssessmenttoensurethatthe

Government’spolicyonadaptationtakes

appropriateaccountofinternationalimpacts.

Theprojectwillreportinsummer2011.Abroad

rangeofimpactsthatclimatechangecouldhaveon

theUK,includingpossibleopportunitiesandthreats

havebeenidentified.Theseincludeimplicationsfor

diplomacyandforeignpolicy,security,resourcesand

commodities,financeandtrade,humanhealthand

socialvalues.

INTERNATIONALDIMENSIONSOF CLIMATECHANGEThis Foresight project aims to improve our understanding of how climate

change impacts in other parts of the world could affect the UK.

CURRENT WORK

< > CONTENTS




< > CONTENTS



28 / OUR IMPACT

GLOBAL FOODAND FARMINGFUTURESForesight has a dedicated team that works across government to catalyse

action and to help departments and other stakeholders to take up the findings

of our reports.

OUR IMPACT

TheForesightprojectonGlobal Food and Farming

Futureshasattractedtheimmediateattentionof

multipleUKandinternationalstakeholders,andhas

alreadybeguntomakeanimpactontheinternational

policyandresearchcommunity.TheUKGovernment

planstoworkcloselywithForesightandtheproject’s

leadexpertstofacilitatethereport’simpactonseveral

areasofpolicydevelopment;forexample,intrade

reformandmarkets,sustainableintensification,

biodiversity,andendinghunger.Awiderangeofinternationalstakeholderscommentedonthereport

atthetimeofpublication.Forexample,theUN

High-Level Task Force on Global Food Security

welcomedthereportandanticipatedthattheUN

organisationswoulddrawonitsevidenceand

analysesastheypursuethepolicyoptionsoutlined

intheirUpdatedComprehensiveFrameworkfor

Action.TheOECDcommentedthatthefindings

willassistinthedevelopmentoftheOECD’sGreen

GrowthStrategyforFoodandAgricultureandthe

OECDAgricultureKnowledgeSystemsConferenceinJune2011.

Shortlyafterpublicationofthereport,Foresightheld

aspecialpaneleventattheAmerican Association for

the Advancement of Science (AAAS)annualmeeting

inWashingtonD.C.ProfessorSirJohnBeddington

andProfessorCharlesGodfray,chairoftheLead

ExpertGroup,wereinvitedtospeakaboutthereport

inasessiontitled‘Howcantheworldfeed9billion

peopleby2050sustainablyandequitably?’

ForesightsharedsomeoftheemergingfindingswithAfricanstakeholdersatthe5thAfricanAgriculture

ScienceWeekinBurkinaFasoin2010.Foresightis

nowworkingwiththeAfrican Unionandthe

Comprehensive African Agriculture Development

Programme (CAADP)toexplorehowthereport

mightinformandsupportthedeliveryoftheAfrican

UnionandCAADPpriorities.Forexample,thisstrand

aimstodeepenunderstandingofthefactorsimpacting

Africaandinformdecisionsandinfluencepolicyon

economicandsocialdevelopmentandregionaland

internationaltradeatarangeofgeo-politicallevels.

< > CONTENTS




< > CONTENTS



30 / OUR IMPACT

LAND USEFUTURES

TheForesightprojectonLand Use Futures,

publishedinFebruary2010,arguesforstrategic

objectivestoguidefuturelandusechangeasthe

UK’slandsystemcomesundernewpressuresinthe

decadesahead.Sincepublication,Foresighthas

workedwithGovernmentdepartmentsandother

stakeholderstoexplorehowtheevidencebaselaid

outinthereportmightbeusedtoinformpolicyand

strategicthinking.Forexample,Defrahasusedthe

reportindevelopingtheconsultationexercisefor

theNatural Environment White Paperandin

takingforwardthe National Ecosystem Assessment,

whichisthefirstanalysisoftheUK’snatural

environmentintermsofthebenefitsitprovidesto

societyandfutureeconomicprosperity.

Howlandisusedprovidesawiderangeofbenefits

toabroadsectionoftheUKpopulation.Italsohas

thepropensitytoimposecosts,suchaspollutionorcongestion,onanequallywiderangeofpeople.

Costsandbenefitsregularlyextendbeyondthe

immediateusersofland,butpricesforlandindifferent

usesdonotfullyreflectthis.Defra’sNatural Value

Programmeaimstointegratethevalueofthenatural

environmentanduseofanecosystemsapproachin

Defra,otherGovernmentDepartments,atalocal

level,andinbusinessandtheForesightreport

providestheevidencefortheprogramme.

ThefindingsfromtheForesightprojectsonLandUse

FuturesandGlobalFoodandFarmingFuturesare

reflectedinNatural England’s Corporate Plan

2011-2015.Theplansetsoutitsnewapproachto

safeguardingthenaturalenvironment,anapproach

whichfocusesonreconnectingpeoplewithnature;

onprotectingnaturalassetsandonthe

opportunitiesofferedbythegreenereconomy.

LandUseFutureshighlightsanimportantchallenge:

theneedforaccessible,high-qualitydatatoinform

policyandresearch.Meetingthis‘datachallenge’will

beanessentialstepinmakingprogressinsustainable

futurelanduseandhasstruckachordwithawide

rangeofstakeholders.Manyorganisations,inparticular

thepartnershipLiving With Environmental Change

(LWEC),shareacommoninterestinthedata

challengeandalsoinreviewingitspivotalrolein

supportingthedevelopmentofanintegratedlandusemodel.ForesighthasworkedwithLWECand

otherorganisationstoexplorehowbestto

respondtotheneedforaccessible,high-qualitydata

fromwhichtobuildtheevidencebasetoinform

policyandresearch,particularly,thedemandand

supplyoflandusedata,andtoexplorewaysto

developandimproveit.

OUR IMPACT

< > CONTENTS




< > CONTENTS



32 / OUR IMPACT

SUSTAINABLEENERGYMANAGEMENTAND THE BUILTENVIRONMENT

Theone-yearreviewoftheSustainable Energy

Management and Built Environmentreport,

publishedin2010highlightshowtheprojecthas

informedtheactionsGovernmenthastakenin

meetingtheClimateChangeAct’stargetof80%

decarbonisationby2050.Thereportwasalso

usedtoinformthedevelopmentoflocalscale

initiativesinbuildingandretrofittingtechnologies

andenergysystemswhichwillprovideimportantcontributionstomakingthebuiltenvironment

moresustainable.

Forexample,theTechnology Strategy Board’s

BuildingPerformanceEvaluationprogramme,

whichaddressesenergyefficiencyofexistingand

newbuildinthecommercialanddomestic

environments,drawsontheForesightprojectand

complementsandsupportstheDepartment for

Energy and Climate Change’s (DECC)priorities

suchasthedevelopmentoftheNationalEnergy

EfficiencyDatabase.

TheForesightreportprovedtobevaluablein

movingtheDECC’sworkforwardindeveloping

policyproposalsfordistributedenergysolutions.It

hadparticularinfluenceonthreecriticalpiecesof

workin2009:theHeatandEnergySavingsStrategy,

theLowCarbonCommunityChallenge,andthe

LowCarbonTransitionPlan.

TheleadauthorsofthereportPowering our LivesareworkingtogetheronanEngineering and

Physical Sciences Research Councilfundedproject:

‘Challenginglock-inthroughurbanenergysystems’

(CLUES)whichistakingforwardsomeofthisreport’s

findings.TheCLUESprojectwillassessthe

contributionofdecentralisedurbansystemsin

achievingnationaldecarbonisationgoalsanddeepen

ourunderstandingofhowthebarriersanddriversof

urbanenergyinitiativeshaveimplicationsforenergy

systemsatdifferentscales.Theprojectwillmake

useofthe2050scenariosdevelopedbythe

Foresightstudytohelpunderstandthepotential

OUR IMPACT

< > CONTENTS




varietyinfuturepathwaystosustainabilityinthe

faceofkeyuncertainties.

TheForesightreporthasbeenusedtopromotethe

exchangeofinternationalperspectivesandknowledge.

Forexample,theUCLEnvironmentInstituteco-hosted

asymposiumwithForesightandtheForeignand

CommonwealthOfficeforleadingUKandUSexperts.

Thisevent‘Sustainable Energy Management andthe Built Environment’ Foresight Report: Sharing

Anglo-American Best Practicefocusedonenergy

incitiesandtestedtheapplicabilityoftheForesight

scenariosinaUScontext.Itallowedexpertsfrom

academia,industryandgovernmenttoshareinsights

onthethemesfromthereportandstimulated

discussiononaninternationalresearchagendaon

energyandcities,andnewnetworksofcollaboration.

< > CONTENTS



34 / OUR IMPACT

MENTAL CAPITALAND WELLBEING

In2010,Foresightpublishedtheone-yearreview

ofimpactofitsMental Capital and Wellbeingreport

whichsetoutwherethereporthasplayedasignificant

partinhelpingshapeseveralkeygovernmentpolicies

whichreflectthegrowingrecognitionandimportance

ofpositivementalhealthandwellbeing.

TheUKGovernment’sMental Health Strategy,

publishedinFebruary2010,reflectssomeofthekey

conclusionsfromtheForesightreport,inparticular

thecallforanintegrated,cross-governmentstrategy

todelivermentalhealthandwellbeing.Also,bylinking

departmentalresponses,governmentinvestmentcan

bebetterdirectedandmoreeffectivelyco-ordinated

indeliveringthe‘lifecourseapproach’toMentalCapital

andWellbeingassetoutinthestudy.Theadoption

oftheForesightreport’sFive ways to wellbeingsets

outavaluableandaccessiblestrategybywhich

individualscanplayanimportantpartindeveloping theirownmentalwellbeing.

TheMentalCapitalandWellbeingprojecthasreceived

internationalexposure.InJanuary2010theForesight

ProgrammeandtheForeign and Commonwealth

Office’s Science and Innovation Network hosted

aworkshopentitled‘Unlockingandutilisingthe

mentalcapitaloftheageingpopulation:international

perspectivesandopportunities’.Theeventbrought

togetherover20ofEurope’skeypolicymakersand

academicstodiscussthefindingsofthereportand

toreviewthescientificevidencebaseonmental

capitalandtheageingpopulation,tosharebest

practice,toexplorethebarrierstoprogress,andto

identifythesynergiesandopportunitiesforfuture

Europeancollaboration.

TheChineseGovernment’sMinistryofEducation

hasshowninterestintheMentalCapitaland

Wellbeingreport.Sincepublicationin2009,ithas

organisedagrouptostudyhowtoapplyittothenationaleducationstrategyupto2020.Also,anew

researchinitiative(c£1.5million)fundedbythe

ChineseGovernment,involvingChineseandUK

academicswillexplorechildren’slearningdifficulties

andrelatingtosocialwithdrawalbehaviour.

OUR IMPACT

< > CONTENTS

http://issuu.com/neweconomicsfoundation/docs/five_ways_to_well-being?mode=embed&viewMode=presentation

http://issuu.com/neweconomicsfoundation/docs/five_ways_to_well-being?mode=embed&viewMode=presentation




< > CONTENTS



36 / OUR IMPACT

TACKLINGOBESITIES

In2010,ForesightpartneredwiththeRoyal College

of Physicians(RCP)toproduceareporttoguide

healthprofessionalsontreatingobesity.Thereport

‘Training of health professionals for the prevention

and treatment of overweight and obesity’ highlights

thecorecompetenciesthatwillgiveprofessionals

theknowledgeandskillstheyneedtocontribute

toeffectivestrategiesforpreventionandtreatment

ofobesity.

TheForesightreportonTackling Obesities,

publishedin2007,acknowledgestheimportance

ofanycomprehensivelong-termstrategyaddressing

bothpreventionandtreatment.TheRCPreport

complementsexistingevidencetoemphasisethat

infuture,everyhealthprofessionalwillneedtobe

trainedtoidentifypeopleatriskfromincreasing

bodyweight,andbeskilledatmanagingobesity.

Thedramaticincreaseintheprevalenceofoverweight

andobesityintheUKinthelast20yearshasnot

beenmatchedbyasimilarexpansionofeducation

andtraininginhowtocareforobesepatients.

Atpresentthereislimitedinformationprovidedin

bothunder-andpost-graduatetraining,andvery

littlefocusonweightmanagementinspecialistmedical

training.Consequently,manyhealthprofessionals

eitherdonotrealisethemedicalconsequencesof

obesityorlackconfidenceandtheabilitytohelp.

TheRCPreport,whichisendorsedbytheRoyal

CollegeofGeneralPractitioners,theRoyalCollege

ofNursingandtheRoyalCollegeofPaediatricsand

ChildHealth,emphasisestheimportanceofeducating

healthprofessionalsandlistsindetailtheknowledge

andskillsneededtobeabletodiagnose,manage

andtreatoverweightandobesepeople.

OUR IMPACT

< > CONTENTS




< > CONTENTS



38 / OUR IMPACT

DETECTION ANDIDENTIFICATIONOF INFECTIOUSDISEASES

TheForesightProgrammesupportedthe

developmentoftheAfrican Union Science andTechnology Framework for the Detection,

Identification and Monitoring of Infectious Diseases

in Africa,whichwasbasedonthefindingsofthe

Foresightstudypublishedin2006.Theframework

willlinkscientistsandinstitutionsinvolvedwiththe

surveillanceandresearchoninfectiousdiseasesof

humans,animalsandplants.Specifically,Foresight

co-hostedaworkshopinKampala,Ugandawith

AfricanstakeholdersfromUganda,Rwanda,Burundi,

Kenya,Sudan,EthiopiaandtheAfricanUniontoexplorethecreationoftheEastern Africa Centre

for Infectious Disease Surveillance.Thisbuildson

theexperienceoftheSouthern African Centre for

Infectious Disease Surveillancedevelopedonthe

principlesinlinewiththevisionsetoutinthe

ForesightreportInfectious Diseases: Preparing

for the Future – Africa.

OUR IMPACT

< > CONTENTS




< > CONTENTS



40 / ANNEXES

ANNEXESMany academics, other experts and policy makers contribute to Foresight’s work.

Foresight projects involve leading experts from a wide range of scientific and

other disciplines to ensure that our work is of the highest technical standard,

and relevant to policy. A High-Level Stakeholder Group (HLSG) of relevant

organisations in the public sector, research community and business adviseForesight on the strategic direction of projects, and the actions that should

result from the work. Membership of the Lead Expert Groups and HLSG are

published in this section.

ANNEXES

Advisory Board for Foresight

TheAdvisoryBoardforForesightadvisesthe

GovernmentChiefScientificAdviserontheoverall

strategicdirectionoftheForesightProgramme.

Itsmembersin2010were:

•Sir William Castell LVO,Chairmanofthe

WellcomeTrust.PreviouslyPresidentandCEO

ofGeneralElectricHealthcareandVice-Chairman

oftheGeneralElectricCompany(GE).•Professor Brian Collins,ChiefScienticAdviser

attheDepartmentforTransportandProfessor

ofInformationSystemsatCraneldUniversity.

•Clive Cookson,ScienceEditoroftheFinancial

Timessince1991,withacareerinjournalism

coveringscience,technologyandpharmaceuticals.

•Professor Ian Diamond,ChiefExecutiveofthe

EconomicandSocialResearchCouncil(ESRC)

andChairmanoftheExecutiveGroupofResearch

CouncilsUK,thestrategicpartnershipoftheUK’ssevenResearchCouncils.

•Professor David Hendry,ProfessorofEconomics

andaFellowofNufeldCollegeOxford.

•Dr Mike Howse OBE FREng,TechnicalAdviser

toRolls-Royceplc,andpreviouslyDirector,

EngineeringandTechnologyatRolls-Royceplc.

MemberoftheDefenceScienticAdvisoryCouncil.

VisitingProfessoratCraneldUniversity.

•Professor Sally Macintyre,DirectorofMedical

ResearchCouncil’sSocialandPublicHealth

SciencesUnit,Glasgow,andamemberofthe WorkingPartyoftheNufeldCouncilonthe

ethicsofpublichealth.

•Professor Robert Watson,ChiefScienticAdviser

attheDepartmentforEnvironment,Foodand

RuralAffairs(Defra)andchairofEnvironmental

ScienceandScienceDirectoroftheTyndallCentre

attheUniversityofEastAnglia.FormerChief

ScientistattheWorldBankandChairofthe

IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange.

< > CONTENTS




High-Level Stakeholder Group forGlobal Food and Farming Futures

•Chair–JimPaiceMP,

MinisterofStateforAgricultureandFood,

DepartmentforEnvironment,FoodandRuralAffairs

•Chair–StephenO’BrienMP,

ParliamentaryUnder-SecretaryofState

forInternationalDevelopment,

DepartmentforInternationalDevelopment

•ProfessorSirJohnBeddington,GovernmentChiefScienticAdviser,

GovernmentOfceforScience

•DrPedroArcuri,

Coordinator,EMBRAPALabexEuropeEmpresa

BrasileiradePesquisaAgropecuária

•DrTariqBanuri,

Director,DivisionforSustainableDevelopment,UN

•DrJohnBarrett,

DeputyDirector,PolicyandResearchDivision,

DFID

•JohnBensted-Smith,

Director,Directorate-GeneralforAgriculture,

EuropeanCommission

•SamBickersteth,

Headofprogrammepolicyteam,Oxfam

•Prof.JoachimvonBraun,

DirectorGeneral,InternationalFoodPolicy

ResearchInstitute(IFPRI)

•EckhardDeutscher,

representedbyStephenGroff,Deputy-Director,

DevelopmentCo-operationDirectorateOECD

•DrNinaFedoroff,

SpecialAdvisoronScienceandTechnology

totheUSDepartmentofState

•IainFergusonCBE,

ChiefExecutive,Tate&LylePLC

•AnneGuttridge,

SupplyChainManager,GrainandOilseeds,Europe,Cargill

•BrianHarding,Director,FoodandFarmingGroup,DEFRA

•PatrickHolden,

Director,SoilAssociation

•MichaelJacobs,

SeniorPolicyAdvisertothePrimeMinister

•Prof.DougKell,

ChiefExecutive,BBSRCandRCUK

•PeterKendall,

President,NFU•LaurieLee,

Director,AgriculturalDevelopment,

GlobalDevelopmentProgram,

BillandMelindaGatesFoundation

•DrWillMartin,

ActingResearchManager,

DevelopmentResearchGroup,Trade,WorldBank

•DrJeffMcNeely,

ChiefScientist,InternationalUnion

forConservationofNature(IUCN)

•ProfessorRichardMkandawire,

HeadoftheComprehensiveAfricanAgriculture

DevelopmentProgramme,NewPartnership

forAfrica’sDevelopment(NEPAD)

•AlexanderMueller,

AssistantDirector,GeneralSustainable

DevelopmentDepartment,FoodandAgricultural

Organisation(FAO)

•DrNamangaNgongi,Director,CommitteeonAgriculture

andRuralDevelopment(AGRA)

•NancyRoman,

HeadofPublicPolicyandCommunications,

WorldFoodProgramme

•ProfessorAndrewRosenberg,

Director,OceanProcessAnalysisLaboratory,

UniversityofNewHampshire

•DrHarshaVardhanaSingh,DeputyDirector-General,WorldTrade

Organisation(WTO)

< > CONTENTS



42 / ANNEXES

ANNEXES

•AchimSteiner,ExecutiveDirector,

UnitedNationsEnvironmentalProgramme(UNEP)

•AjayVashee,

President,InternationalFederation

ofAgriculturalProducers

•JanKeesVis,

DirectorSustainableAgriculture,Unilever

•RossWarburton,

President,FoodandDrinkFederation

Lead Expert Group for Global Foodand Farming Futures

•Chair–ProfessorCharlesGodfrayFRS,

HopeProfessor,OxfordUniversity

•ProfessorLawrenceHaddad,

DirectoroftheInstituteofDevelopmentStudies,

UniversityofSussex

•ProfessorIanCrute,

DirectorofRothamstedResearch

•ProfessorJulesPretty,

Environment&Society,UniversityofEssex

•DrDavidLawrence,

HeadofResearchandDevelopment,Syngenta

•DrCamillaToulmin,

DirectorofInternationalInstituteforEnvironment

andDevelopment

•ProfessorShermanRobinson,

UniversityofSussex

High-Level Stakeholder Group forGlobal Environmental Migration

•Chair–ProfessorSirJohnBeddington,

GovernmentChiefScienticAdviser,

GovernmentOfceforScience

•AdrianAlsop,

DirectorofResearchandInternationalStrategy,

EconomicandSocialResearchCouncil(ESRC)

•AndyBearpark,Trustee,CareInternationalUK

•PaulBoyle,

ChiefExecutive,EconomicandSocialResearch

Council(ESRC)

•HeikeBuss,

DeputyHeadofUnitInternationalAffairs,

EuropeanCommission

•DiarmidCampbell-Lendrum,

EnvironmentalEpidemiologist,WorldHealth

Organisation(WHO)

•DavidClary,

ChiefScienticAdviser,

ForeignandCommonwealthOfce(FCO)

•KrisEbi,

ExecutiveDirector,IntergovernmentalPanel

onClimateChange(IPCC)

•RichardEdwards,

AlternateExecutiveDirector,

AsianDevelopmentBank

•JohnElliott,

DirectorofSocialScienceandChiefEconomist,

HomeOfce

•ChrisField,

Co-ChairWorkingGroup,Intergovernmental

PanelonClimateChange(IPCC)

•JulienFrey,

ThematicOfcerMigration-Asylum,

EuropeanCommission•PauldeGuchteneire,

Chief,InternationalMigrationandMulticultural

PoliciesSection,UnitedNationsEducational,

ScienticandCulturalOrganization(UNESCO)

•MadeleenHelmer,

Director,PoliciesandCommunication,RedCross

•FrankLaczko,

ChiefofResearchandPublications,

InternationalOrganizationforMigration(IOM)

< > CONTENTS




•MehariMaru,ProgramHead,AfricanConictPreventionProgram

•RobinMearns,

LeadSocialDevelopmentSpecialist,WorldBank

•MarcRichir,

Directorate-GeneralExternalRelations,

EuropeanCommission

•DanOsborn,

ActingHeadofKnowledgeExchange,

NaturalEnvironmentResearchCouncil(NERC)

•MarkRobinson,

HeadofProfessionforGovernment&Conict

DepartmentforInternationalDevelopment(DFID)

•AurelieSgro,

InternationalAffairs,EuropeanCommission

•AgataSobiech,

DirectorateGeneralforJustice,Freedomand

Security–ImmigrationandAsylumUnit,

EuropeanCommission

•BernardSilverman,

ChiefScienticAdviser,HomeOfce

•BarrieStevens,

DeputyDirector,AdvisoryUnit,Organisationfor

EconomicCo-operationandDevelopment(OECD)

•GoranSvilanovic,

Co-ordinatorofOSCEEconomicand

EnvironmentalActivities,OrganizationforSecurity

&Co-operationinEurope

•VeerleVandeweerd,Director–Environment&Energy,UnitedNations

DevelopmentProgramme(UNDP)

•MargaretaWahlstrom,

CommissiononClimateChangeandDevelopment,

SwedishGovernment

•AndrewWatkinson,

Director,LivingwithEnvironmentalChange

•ProfessorRobertWatson,

ChiefScienticAdviser,DepartmentfortheEnvironment,FoodandRuralAffairs(DEFRA)

•DavidWarrilow,HeadofClimateScienceandInternationalEvidence,

DepartmentofEnergyandClimateChange(DECC)

•StevenWilson,

InterimChiefExecutive,NaturalEnvironment

ResearchCouncil(NERC)

•AlanWinters,

ChiefEconomist,DepartmentforInternational

Development(DFID)

Lead Expert Group for GlobalEnvironmental Migration

•Chair–ProfessorRichardBlack,

HeadoftheSchoolofGlobalStudiesatthe

UniversityofSussex

•ProfessorNeilAdger,

EnvironmentalEconomics,Schoolof

EnvironmentalSciences,UniversityofEastAnglia

andProgrammeLeaderatTyndallCentrefor

ClimateChangeResearch•ProfessorNigelArnell,

Director,WalkerInstituteforClimateSystem

Research,UniversityofReading

•ProfessorStefanDercon,

DevelopmentalEconomics,OxfordUniversity

•ProfessorDavidThomas,

HeadofSchoolofGeographyandtheEnvironment,

OxfordUniversityandDeputyLeaderTyndall

CentreforClimateChangeResearch

•ProfessorAndrewGeddes,

DepartmentofPolitics,ShefeldUniversity

Lead Expert Group for ComputerTrading in Financial Markets

•Chair–DameClaraFurseDBE,

formerCEOofLondonStockExchangeand

anon-executiveDirectorofLegal&GeneralPlc,

AmadeusITHoldingSA,NomuraHoldingsInc

•ProfessorPhilipBond,

OxfordCentreforIndustrialand

< > CONTENTS



44 / ANNEXES

ANNEXES

AppliedMathematics•ProfessorDaveCliff,

ProfessorofComputerScience,

UniversityofBristol

•ProfessorCharlesGoodhart,

ProfessorofFinance,LondonSchoolofEconomics

•AndyHaldane,

ExecutiveDirectorFinancialStability,BankofEngland

•KevinHoustoun,

Chairman,RapidAddition;co-Chair,GlobalTechnicalCommittee,FIXProtocolLimited

•ProfessorOliverLinton,

ProfessorofEconometrics,

LondonSchoolofEconomics

•DrJean-PierreZigrand,

ReaderinFinance,LondonSchoolofEconomics

< > CONTENTS




< > CONTENTS



URN:11/P91

Foresightispartofthe

GovernmentOfficeforScience.

22432 foresight review 2010 aw v5

Documents