2q15 conference call
TRANSCRIPT
Investor Update
Last Updated: Aug. 4, 2016
The following presentation includes forward-looking statements. These statements relate to future events, such as anticipated revenues, earnings, business strategies, competitive position or other aspects of our operations, operating results or the industries or markets in which we operate or participate in general. Actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecast in such forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that may prove to be incorrect and are difficult to predict such as oil and gas prices; operational hazards and drilling risks; potential failure to achieve, and potential delays in achieving expected reserves or production levels from existing and future oil and gas development projects; unsuccessful exploratory activities; unexpected cost increases or technical difficulties in constructing, maintaining or modifying company facilities; international monetary conditions and exchange controls; potential liability for remedial actions under existing or future environmental regulations or from pending or future litigation; limited access to capital or significantly higher cost of capital related to illiquidity or uncertainty in the domestic or international financial markets; general domestic and international economic and political conditions, as well as changes in tax, environmental and other laws applicable to ConocoPhillips’ business and other economic, business, competitive and/or regulatory factors affecting ConocoPhillips’ business generally as set forth in ConocoPhillips’ filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). We caution you not to place undue reliance on our forward-looking statements, which are only as of the date of this presentation or as otherwise indicated, and we expressly disclaim any responsibility for updating such information.
Use of non-GAAP financial information – This presentation may include non-GAAP financial measures, which help facilitate comparison of company operating performance across periods and with peer companies. Any non-GAAP measures included herein will be accompanied by a reconciliation to the nearest corresponding GAAP measure on our website at www.conocophillips.com/nongaap.
Cautionary Note to U.S. Investors – The SEC permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved, probable and possible reserves. We use the term "resource" in this presentation that the SEC’s guidelines prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC. U.S. investors are urged to consider closely the oil and gas disclosures in our Form 10-K and other reports and filings with the SEC. Copies are available from the SEC and from the ConocoPhillips website.
Cautionary Statement
3
• Protect against protracted downturn
• Set dividend for lower end of cycle
• Efficiently execute capital plans
• Complete major projects
• Focus on lowering breakeven cost of the business
Short TermWeaker Prices
• Priority to strengthen balance sheet
• Target annual real growth in dividend
• Continued focus on execution
• Disciplined activity ramp-up
• Sustain low cost structure
Medium TermPrice Recovery
• Achieve target debt level; target ‘A’ credit rating
• Per share competes with absolute growth
• Low cost of supply investments
• Execute portfolio high-grading
• Predictable performance through cycles
Longer TermCycles and Volatility
Maintaining Discipline Across Time Horizons
Creating Value Through Cycles
4
Financial PrioritiesValue Proposition Principles
Disciplined GrowthPer share competes
with absolute growth, focused on returns
Strong Balance Sheet
Reduce debt to less than $25B
Growing Dividend
Target annual real growth
RETURNS
Cash Allocation Priorities & Targets
Existing dividend and capital to maintain production base
Target annual real dividend growth
Reduce debt as it matures; accelerate with asset sales; target ‘A’ credit rating
Target 20-30% of CFO for total shareholder payout
Disciplined growth capital
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
Exercising Flexibility
2016E: $5.5B 2016E: $6.8B
Capital Adjusted Operating Costs1
1 Adjusted operating costs exclude special items and is a non-GAAP measure. A non-GAAP reconciliation is available on our website.2 Production excludes Libya and is normalized for impacts from asset sales completed in 2015.
2016E: 1,540 – 1,570 MBOED
Production2
$17.1B
$10.1B$5.5B
$0
$4
$8
$12
$16
$20
2014 2015 2016E0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2014 2015 2016E
$11.6BREDUCTION
$9.7B$8.0B $6.8B
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
2014 2015 2016E
$2.9BREDUCTION
5
1-3%PRODUCTION GROWTH2016E vs. 2015
• Cut discretionary programs acrossportfolio
• Retaining acreage and futureoptionality
• Driving sustainable reductions
• Maintaining core capabilities
• Major project ramp ups offsettingdecline
• Significant growth inventory forup-cycle
High-Quality Global Portfolio
19%
32%
10%
17%
22%
10%
46%
6%
16%
22%
APMEAlaska CanadaLower 48Europe & North Africa
26%
18%
12%12%
32%
1 2Q16 production. 2 YE 2015 reserves. 3 YE 2014 resources.6
Production1,546 MBOED1
Reserves8.2 BBOE2
Resources44 BBOE3
Portfolio Attributes
Diverse, low-decline base production
Large, low cost of supply resource base
Flexible, short-cycle investment options
Lower-risk, medium-cycle projects
Sustained low cost structure
Diversified Portfolio Provides a Unique Advantage
7
Capital
2015 Actual 2016E
$5.5B
$10.1B
Lower 48
Alaska
CanadaAPME
Lower 48
Alaska
CanadaAPME
2015 Actual¹ 2016E
1,540-1,570
Lower 48
Alaska
Canada
APME
Lower 48
Alaska
Canada
APME
1,525
Production - MBOED
Europe
1 2015 production excludes 64 MBOED for the full-year impact of completed dispositions.2 2Q16 production
Europe
Europe Europe
Canada279 MBOED2
Surmont 2 on line, adding to low decline base
Alaska179 MBOED2
New projects and drilling
offset decline Lower 48503 MBOED2
Exercising flexibility, focusing on highest
return options
APME398 MBOED2
APLNG on lineand production
ramping up
Europe187 MBOED2
New projects and drilling
offset decline
Lower 48 and Canada
8
• Continuing to ramp up production at Surmont 2
• Achieved first production at Foster Creek Phase G
• Progressing toward first production at Christina LakePhase F
Canada
• Executing 3-rig program in the unconventionals
• Continuing to realize drilling and completion efficienciesin Eagle Ford and Bakken
• Progressing phased exit from deepwater exploration
Lower 48
Foster Creek
Alaska and Europe & North Africa
• Continuing development drilling at Greater Ekofisk Area
• Progressing projects at Alder, Clair Ridge and Aasta Hansteen
• Successful installation of Clair Ridge drilling and production modules
• First production expected at Alder in 4Q16
Europe & North Africa
• Production from major projects offsetting decline
• Strong production at CD5 and Drill Site 2S
• Completed sale of Beluga River in 2Q16
Alaska
Alpine9
Asia Pacific & Middle East and Other International
• Signed SPA for Senegal exploration blocks in July
Other International
• Operating above expectations at APLNG Train 1; expectfirst cargo from Train 2 in 4Q16
• Gumusut production exceeding expectations
• KBB production increasing with third-partycommissioning underway
• Progressing Malikai toward startup in 2017
Asia Pacific & Middle East
APLNGLOADED 27 CARGOS THROUGH 2Q16
APLNGAPLNG
10
Key Takeaways
• ConocoPhillips well positioned for lower, more volatile prices
• Defined principles, priorities and targets for cash allocation
• Goal to lower breakeven price of the business
• Exercised significant capital flexibility and lowered adjustedoperating costs
• High-quality, low cost of supply resource base
• Value proposition = Principles + Priorities + Portfolio
11 Adjusted operating costs exclude special items and is a non-GAAP measure. A non-GAAP reconciliation is available on our website.Full-year 2016 production expected to be up 1-3% compared to 2015 production of 1,525 MBOED, which excludes 64 MBOED for the full-year impact of 2015 dispositions.
~70%CAPITAL REDUCTION2016E VS 2014
LOWERINGBREAKEVEN PRICE
PRODUCTION1-3% GROWTH2016E VS 2015
~30%ADJUSTED OPERATING COST REDUCTION2016E VS 2014
LOW COST
RESOURCE BASEOF SUPPLY
Appendix
• Crude• Brent/ANS : $100-120MM for $1/BBL change • WTI: $30-40MM for $1/BBL change • WCS¹: $35-45MM for $1/BBL change
• North American NGL• Representative blend: $5-10MM for $1/BBL change
• Natural Gas• Henry Hub: $65-75MM for $0.25/MCF change • International gas: $10-15MM for $0.25/MCF change
¹ WCS price used for the sensitivity represents a volumetric weighted average of Shorcan and Net Energy indices.The published sensitivities above reflect annual estimates and may not apply to quarterly results due to lift timing/product sales differences, significant turnaround activity or other unforeseen portfolio shifts in production. Additionally, the above sensitivities apply to a range of commodity price fluctuations as of April 28, 2016, but may not apply to significant and unexpected increases or decreases.
Annualized Net Income Sensitivities
13
• Full-year 2016 production guidance of 1,540-1,570 MBOED
• 2016 DD&A of ~$9.2B
• Adjusted Operating Costs of ~$6.8B
• Exploration Dry Hole and Leasehold Impairment Expense of ~$0.8B
• Corporate Segment Net Loss of ~$1B
2016 Outlook Guidance
14Guidance excludes special items. Adjusted operating costs is a non-GAAP measure. A non-GAAP reconciliation is available on our website.
Investor Information
Stock Ticker
NYSE: COP
Website: www.conocophillips.com/investor
Headquarters
ConocoPhillips
600 N. Dairy Ashford Road
Houston, Texas 77079
Investor Relations Contacts:
Telephone: +1 281.293.5000
Ellen DeSanctis: [email protected]
Sidney J. Bassett: [email protected]
Vladimir R. dela Cruz: [email protected]
Mary Ann Cacace: [email protected]
15